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Stocks & Treasury Yields Are Collapsing
Yesterday's late-day weakness in stocks is continuing as US equities open this morning led by a collapse in Dow Transports and further weakness in Russell 2000. Treasury yields are also plunging with 10Y at 2.435% (back below the oh-so-important Tepper "end of the bond bull" levels). High-yield credit markets are extremely volatile this morning. USD weakness is helping commodities rally with gold and silver outperforming. VIX just hit 17.5
Stocks are tanking on the week...
and bond yields plunging...
Short-term, it appears stocks are playing catch down to credit once again...
USD weakness is sparking buying in commodities
Charts: Bloomberg
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good. fu scam street
There's no dip like the present dip
Wake me up when the 10y has a minus sign in front of it or is in double digits.
Until then, the system is functioning normally.
pods
isn't 2.45 already negative when inflation is accounted for? We've been in NIRP territory for a while.
When the global economy rolls over, there is going to be a mad rush to "safety" ... and straight up negative yields may be a reality. The fed owns so much stock, there won't be much for the pleebs to trade amongst themselves in a big rush to one side of the boat. The Fed may flip them back to dealers who churn them to bag holders.
Nothing like being an insider ... easy money ... same as it always was ...
Regards,
Cooter
Yes. It's as simple as that.
So whenever Treasuries sell off, buy them. Sell some into price rallies if you want to trade, but don't sell all of them until AFTER the mad rush to "safety" happens....and you make a some serious money.
gold silver = physical
paper = metaphysical
anything created by man is metaphysical and can change dramatically on a dime, not a good way to base a stable life.
I buy both.
And, my profits from my "paper" trading & investments have fully funded all my physical purchases.
Real versus nominal? What's that?
But yes, "do not adjust your television..."
Nominal of course. Real rates (as was said) are probably negative.
But finance guys are not exactly ZH'ers. They are dependent on the system they are working in. They are not going to great lengths to prove it is all a lie.
Rothschild was rumored to say something (a bit more eloquently) on that topic.
pods
"The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from it's profits or so dependant on it's favors, that there will be no opposition from that class." — Rothschild Brothers of London, 1863
Personally, I am enjoying watching them sweat. Nothing more gruesome then the feeding freenzy you get when sharks start eating each other.
Wow, so much is going down in the past week or two. Lots of commodities. Gold. Oil. Stocks. COTTON!
Yet not much has been going up. Nothing much but the dollar. Which I would have never predicted.
Maybe just the "cleanest dirty shirt in the closet"?
Is there something going on that I do not understand (probably)? Hmm.
"King Dollar?"
http://goo.gl/rnkGCu
I have never understood the mad dash to buy Treasuries as a rush to safety. It seems to me like running to the coked-up hooker with a razor when you think all the other women are out to get you.
But you have to understand that you're running from the PCPd up pimp with a shotgun into the arms of the coked up hooker with a razor.
aaah
Sure, the coked up hooker with teh razor is gonna cut ya, but its better than that mean bitch with a machete behind you.
Ok. Point made. I have an ex with a lawyer in tow. I know I am much better off with the coked up hooker.
The dollar going up is a classic example of systemic risk gone wild. We're at the point now that without King Dollar, nothing else has a chance in our hyper-financialized world, as pretty much all assets are somehow encumbered by now.
I'm sure this will end well.
Look at the velocity of the dollars in circulation, such "perceived strength" is typical of a dying currency.
Well....almost nothing.
;)
In the 80's the general population went on a spending spree because... well they actually all thought there would be a thermo nuclear war and everybody would die.
So why not live like it was the last day on earth?
And that boosted the markets and made the economy boom.
3 decades later and suddenly everybody is broke.
SO!!!
LET'S SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF PEOPLE YET AGAIN TO GET THEM SPENDING AND BOOST THE MARKETS AGAIN!!!
Wars: ALL OVER!!
Viruses: PLENTY!!
but why aren't people spending?
could it be BECAUSE THEY'RE BROKE AND OVER THEIR HEADS IN DEBT!!!!!!
Nothing a little debt "restructuring" cannot solve.
Theres nothing left to sell, more like it.
i'd say they went on a spree b/c Carter was finally gone. 4 f-ing years of his crushing retardation and people could finally spend.
I'M GONNA PARTY LIKE IT'S 1999!
Not in this economy, you're not.
I'm gonna party like it's 1099!
Here's what Im gonna do.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roRcksH2_HQ
The big question - when do we drain our bank accounts and turn cash into food and supplies?
FAT finger this Bitchezz!!
ISM just tanked....
Ny Fed on line one
Plunge protection team has been scrambled. And we're off the lows.
Look at Sept pricing.
The price jump causes the index drop.
No inflation here...
These charts are not good for me . . . too tempting to crack a beer and grab a sandwich . . . and it's way too early in the morning for that . . .
Its always the right time somewhere.
Adjust your watch to a different timezone.
Hey it's noon somewhere dude..
Yeah better wait with the sandwich.
'For what we are about to receive......".
Always loved that naval blasphemy.
< shocker >....
It's still a "debt is money" system.
The only way our oligarchs maintain power and control is to insure that debt expands, period.
It will remain this way until one of a few things happen, the most unlikely being that we all stop accepting their paper promises...
(the most likely being WWIII)
Its a money is debt system so with Governments around the world repudiating large denominations of cash as a means of exchange they are now forcing the issue by choke holding the recovery to try and keep their national debt at nosebleed levels.
Like I wrote then......FUCK TEPPER AND GOLDMAN!
mehhehe meh!
And, once again, ZH manages to halt the slide.
Run for the shadows, run for the shadows
Run for the shadows in these golden years
I was thinking more along the lines of Queen's "Under Pressure"
"Watching some good frineds screaming 'let me out!'"
once upon a time you dressed so fine
threw the bums a dime, in your prime, didn't you?
"The smell of burning leather
as we hold each other tight
As our rivets rub together
flashing sparks into the night
At this moment of surrender darling
if you really care
Don't touch me there"
Deflation bitchez! Learn to love it while you dine on your iPads.
Not with the biggest energy boom in world history going on inside the USA. To
Folks will hoard their cash forcing the issue of State existence off of yields this low.
time for another mcneil BofA dumba$$ update, sponsored by zerohedge. better yet, a rumor of more BS to save treasury shorts.
heh heh
you beat me to it ... it was just yesterday or monday BoA calling for long end yields to rise.
will it form a plunging neckline?
The ebola factor??
http://olduvai.ca
uh oh shaggy. construction spending falls. ISM declines. Japan Fat fingers. Ebola comes home.
looks like janet will have to back door buy, or go NIRP. time to BTFATD to a new ATH
The Silencing of the LamBABA’s
Here are some stock tweets about BABA since the IPO (i.e., the stuff that Cramer and the MSM never discuss)
Christmas Time in the Stock Market! Don't miss a BIG GAME!
Let's go BABA! clapclapclapclapclap Let's go BABA " To the tune of "let's Go Irish.....
Another upgrade to $110...yeah!
Waiting for drop to IPO price to get long.
Will be propped up in the morning with stabilization efforts.
Need volume. All will fly.
Will pop when options trade on Monday, everyone will get long calls.
Thought $88.88 was going to be a boom trigger???
Wait till shorts start to capitulate, then ZOOM like a rocket, yea baby!
Every time it looks like it wants to go it backfires. Tired of it.
Notice how every peak is getting smaller and smaller.
Waiting for return to IPO price to get out.
Is this the bottom?
How many first time investors had their pants pulled down on this one?
Is 1 way to get USA to pay back its bills, China will get it 1 way or another.
Hey Jack Ma, do you enjoy ripping off the small investors?
“What happened to your lamb Clarice?”
“They killed him.”
“You still wake up sometimes, don’t you, wake up in the dark and hear the screaming of the lambs…
And you think if you save [one] you could make them stop don’t you, you think if [one] lives you won’t wake up in the dark ever again to that awful screaming of the lambs…”
Hannibal Lecter, V.P. HFT Capital Advisors
Notice the Metals hit and Miners hit all going down in unison lol...comical
Watch for the Hilsenbarf 3:30 stick save.
Thats called...'we got the ISM data before everyone else and acted on it.'
Fuckers!
When will we fucking learn that Treasuries aren't a safe haven?
equities are safer?
HY bonds are safer?
Commodities are safer?
I'd say safe is a relative term, and it's more like any port in a storm.... and there's only one port. Go ahead, buy some venezuelan bonds. get some rubles. pick up a couple shares of iCrap. This bitch is coming down, and treasuries are about the only place to hide.
Im with you on treasuries. HY bonds and stocks are good as dead.
opinions vary
Safe haven? Often the first impulse is to bug out to an isolated location.
But that very isolation, while it may retard the onset of an infectous disease, will also exacerbate its spread, once it gets there.
Everyone uses the same Post Office, the same store, and the same school. Bingo! Everyone's sick.
As for Treasuries, how much do you trust the "full faith and credit of the United States"?
Construction spending (august) just out
disaster
consensus ... +0.5%
actual ... -0.8%
BUT
it gets "better" ... july was revised down quite a bit ... if no revision to july ... actual would have plunged -2.1%
oh, and for good measure
june revised even further lower ... from -0.9% to -1.6%
Wake me up when the Nasdaq is down 200-300 points and the Dow is down 500 to 1000 points.
THE NASDAQ IS 3% OFF ITS HIGH!
The slow bleed is the worst. People have been so well trained that the market will come back, they may just bleed out a slow and painfull death by a trillion QE cuts.
I don't think so - it's high is above 5,000!
It was above 5000 for 2 days in March 2000.
It was the tip of the bubble (!), if you get my meaning.
Here's aa instructive picture of it.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/indu/interactive-chart
Go to the top of the chart and click on 'compare'. Then click on 'NASDAQ comp' on the drop down menu, then click on 'compare'
Go down to the horizontal axis time frames and click on 'max.
You wil see an Anatomy of a Bubble.
pass the grey poupon please.......
maybe something to do with this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/01/ukraine-crisis-bonds-naftogaz-...
UPDATE 2-Ukraine's Naftogaz fails to pay $1.6 bln govt-guaranteed bond; no default yetOct 1 (Reuters) - Ukraine's state energy company, Naftogaz, has failed to pay a maturing $1.6 billion debt, raising risks of a default on the country's sovereign Eurobonds and sending debt insurance costs to seven-month highs.
The government assured investors on Wednesday they would soon be paid on the bonds, which were due on Sept 30 and have now entered an initial 10-day grace period.
The Eurobond, which amounts to $1.67 billion once interest is included, is fully guaranteed by the Ukrainian government. So if it is not paid within the grace period, it will trigger so-called cross-default clauses, bringing due all of Ukraine's sovereign bonds at once.
"I have not seen the money. I had not expected this," said one European portfolio manager, who requested anonymity. "They are not in default yet, so hopefully we will be paid within the grace period."
The investor said he also held other Ukrainian bonds, which he was now "very uncomfortable" with, though he said high yields somewhat compensated for risks. Ukraine's bonds are trading with yields of more than 10 percent
Ukraine's other dollar bonds have been trading between 82-88 cents in the dollar, on expectation Kiev will be forced into some form of debt restructuring in coming months
Bond prices were mostly unchanged on the day, but Ukraine's sovereign credit default swaps, used by investors to insure exposure to a credit instrument, rose 30 basis points to 1322 bps, the highest since end-February, according to Markit.
Ukraine's central bank confirmed non-payment, saying it would sell foreign currency to Naftogaz to enable it to pay bondholders. And Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told a government meeting: "The government together with Naftogaz has begun the procedure for repaying the amount of $1.67 billion. The whole amount will be repaid."
But market players were critical of the government, which has repeatedly assured investors it would honour the issue on time.
"They had plenty of time to organise themselves to make this payment. This looks very last minute now," Standard Bank analyst Tim Ash said. "Investors ... don't appreciate the white-knuckle ride."
Naftogaz has defaulted on dollar debt before, after the 2008 global crisis, but those bonds, unlike the current ones, had not carried an explicit sovereign guarantee.
Analysts said the sovereign guarantee on the 2014 bond kicks in after the expiry of the initial 10-day grace period. That is followed by an additional grace period of around 25 days.
"I see no reason for them not to pay (on Naftogaz) unless they want to default on their sovereign bonds too," another fund manager said. (Additional reporting by Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker and Chris Vellacott; Editing by Larry King)
Interesting - but who are these idiots lending money to these criminals.
Clearly they'll be paid up, but it's a good question of by whom.
Surely during November Russia will demand payment in gold or roubles!
trannies
.
Ms. Janet is just gonna take the $indu and $spx down to 200ma, more than likely in a nice controlled manner over the next 30 days or so, maybe 3% down from here. She can do this without increasing volatility by much at all.
I suppose her next act would then be to resume the rising tides of those 200ma's, comprising a nice mild holidays rally, ho ho ho.
In late August I said if September don't bring it, October will.
Octoberfest, bitchezzz.