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"The Trend Is Your Friend... Until It Ends"
"The trend is your friend... until it ends." The Russell 2000 just broke crucial primary support from the 2009 lows to become the first of the major indices to do so...
h/t Brad Wishak of NewEdge
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Leading indicator.
Technicals only matter if the head of 'technical trading' at the FED says they matter.
since everyone clearly thinks "this time is different" (because the Fed), i'm sure it will work out that way for the first time in history. lol.
Thar she blows!
On a log chart? And this is signifigant because?
Typical degree of ignorance usually expressed by the Zero Hedge Public. You. Are. Completely. Wrong.
If the FED "has your back" why let such an indicator fail?
Hmmmm...........
My immediate thought was close to this.
If this particular technical indicator failing is serious, the market will mysteriously climb above the red line on a sudden wave of furious buying at the oddest moment.
Happened last summer when the bond yields went right up to the point where any further and the entire derivatives complex blows up and then bounced off it like it hit glass.
Gold completes a "Golden Cross" and is immediatly hammered down.
Stock market completes umpteenth hindenburg omen and.... nothing...
This is irrelevant unless all the major indices share the same trend line slope. Draw a new trend line. As long as the slope is positive, no one will care.
And this is happening just as Yellen's magic printer is slowing/stopping this month. Coincidence?
Now the banks need to hold the market up on their own just long enough to get enough retail muppets to re-enter before exiting their own positions in droves. Why anyone would buy here is beyond me.
Meh, I'm not so convinced on the big banks. It's not their capital at risk. The top floor gets paid regardless, and if the losses are big enough the taxpayers will bail them out again. The markets will go down when the individuals that pull the strings decide it's time. Yeah, the bosses get stocks, bonuses, et al, but that is only a tiny portion of gains. The individuals get to keep it all. That's my $.02.
BUY
THE
FUCKING
DIP
!!!
!!!
!!!!
I'll just follow those guys in front, they'll know what to do about that cliff....
w00t! burn that shit down baby!
although, Im not clerar how accurate chart pr0n is anymore, with the fucked up game we call markets
What happened to BTFEbola??
ebola is pretty serious..thus btf ebola tomorrow....plunge protection gunna need a day to battle that problem
Tttttiiiiimmmmmbbbbbeeeerrrrr...
get SRTY.
Oh, come on. Lines on charts and all that hocus pocus.
Charts aren't manly.
And jimmy Carter says that he coulda beat Reagan if he were more manly.
Betcha he and Billy were chartists.
At heart
BTW, what'd I tell y'all several weeks ago? Ebola'd be the Next Excuse for a bloody shitty quarter (or two)
Watch out, here it comes!
Won't even matter if nobody else gets infected.
It'll be a grand excuse.
Don't forget, winter is almost here....
Buy motherfuckers! Buy, or be priced out 4Eva!!!!!!
This message was brought to by Janet Yellen, and the HP Printing Company.
All it took was an incredibly dangerous virus coming to the US to do this? The bear in me scoffs, the bull in me shudders.
In unrelated news: Federal Reserve is now set to start printing Ebola vaccinations on LSD paper.
Next up ...a 500 point down day I predict......
This week even.
Someone is going to go for the exits.
maybe, who's left that can actually sell?
"maybe, who's left that can actually sell?"
Wrong questions. Who's left that can actually buy?
Because now that we have a down day it is clearly a real market?
No sarcasm there. That is a serious question. It was a fake market right up until just now, and now it's real?
Its one third the way there today, I'm sure the British construction industry will be the light that causes a rebound tomorrow. The rest of the world won't matter, as long as we're building a record number of shoe boxes everyone will keep the faith.
wont believe it until i see it
Yes.
But Russell now has Ebola.
That's easy. The hard part is when.
money will flow to the next QE...Europe
This is a front runner of... charts with lines
Yes but notice - the dow is down 1%, but russell only .56%.
They are holdijng it up, and they know what buttons to push. Tmorrow algos will say BUY. Thats what theyre saying on CNBC:)
Nice triple top. 1000 next target, then 900. If this sends the Dow under 16600 and the S&P under 1900 it is truly over. Don't underestimate the "ability" of the Fed to keep things afloat, however.
What the fuck did you just say? Why even bother posting that drivel? How about, "it will be sunny tomorrow unless it rains"? The bullshit is thick around here these days.
Those 1o year yields are signaling something ominous on the horizon.
US 10Y Yield 2.409 -0.099 -3.96%
True, but not before screaming all the way back to hit all the stops at Unch. ~ 11:00 before slowly meandering back toward the lows. Yesterday it took until the last 5 min. of the day session for IWM to hit key lows. For those wanting true 'price discovery' (assuming such a thing is actually still possible with QE coming to an end, or at least a pause), it would be great to see this thing break hard now, rather than do the typical 12:30 short squeeze ...
Well, holy heck, it made it down within a whisker of the May lows -- have real markets returned ?
My answer is "no", so I got out of my short, as I've been burned so often at screaming RUT rebounds, with machines waiting at key levels. Good luck to those still short, a potential watershed Russell day ? . . .
Janet shaking the shorts out of the bond market and the longs out of the stock market before the march up to 3% plus on the 10yr And 2100 spy
Two days in a row? Francis Sawyer said you and Kito were wed in a civil ceremony in Oregon and moved to a kibbutz in Jersey.
Start looking into Tesla around 220
220? Is that AM or PM? Oregon or Jersey?
Short it @22 as well.
Musk will be spending the rest of his life in jail when that fraud goes down.
He's not a banker, no get out of jail card.
I think you must be talking about a different guy/company. Tesla is a U.S based company that produces awesomeness. I am looking to sell some of the pipelines (ETP/PAA etc) here to free up cash to buy other stuff that is on dips.
Anyone else doing anything in this market or should we all keep standing here screaming into the wind about how it's all about to go to shit?
Awesomeness indeed. I hear he's the iron-man. Superhero awesomeness! That's gotta be worth at least 4 digits per share.
We're all helpless here, so why piss on the self-help mutual commiseration group? Good to laugh every now and then and you brought me some of the best laughs. Why exit and get so bitter, and so bitter against your (mostly) like-minded brethren on the ZH board?
Save your bitterness for the ones who really deserve it. There are lots to choose from.
Why sit around here walling in your misery following a site that is as dedicated to click bait as the huffington post? Why do so many sit around here and swear allegiance to a place that has steered so many wrong for so long and fosters so much hatred and negativity? I know I am free to leave. Many keep reminding me of that. Either they don't realize they are as well or they truly enjoy misery.
I'm not saying don't keep your eyes open and always be prepared. But this place has changed. Acknowledge it.
Is it so much that I am bitter or have people on here become so hardened and sedentary that they won't allow in any light at this point?
More importantly, keep open to the slight possibility that despite pointing out much reality and calling out the bullshit, keep in mind that much of the "advice" given out on here has ruined many financial lives along with the bernak.
Your comments have always been anti-ZH, yet you stay.
Truth is the banks are insolvent. This thing is held together with bandaids and string. FASB accounting changes have pulled the wool over everyone's eyes, you included, yet those that aren't fooled by the bribery and false numbers are "negative"? Give it a rest. The economy is hurting, bigtime, and the financial markets are a fallacy.
I've always thought of you as a financial advisor with a blog that can't get traffic. Why else would you be so angry and ZH posters, yet stay? It's so bad, yet you can't leave?
The economy is not hurting bigtime. It's structurally dead. Fuckin finito. Is that anti zh? Wake up dude.
You are only bankrupt if someone calls in your debts, which ain't happening. Or if in one big moment of clarity the public awakens and decides they need to own as much gold as possible, which also ain't happening. Sorry.
The only question I am asking the other poster, because the answer for you is clearly no, is if he has anything better to do with his time. You get one shot at life. Don't spend it glued here with sticks in your eyes waiting for this big moment you have been screaming about for years to happen...continues to not happen.
Relax Fonz mate, dont let the shit get to you, its not fucking worth it, trust me, you will, blow a gasket ;-)
I come here for the laughs and comments now, still the funiest and some times best place on the web.
Dont take too much to heart my friend...
:-)
I am the one getting shouted down my friend. My sarcasm is only "allowed" when it is directed in certain places. That's not how I work.
(lol thanks for proving my point)
Good to have you back Fonz. Keep posting against the groupthink, it might not be comfortable for many, but it's good to put it out there.
It's cognative dissonance fonz. There's a lot of bs here, though I don't think the tenor of comments have changed so much. The vast majority want a morally bankrupt system to end even if they are afraid of the repurcussions. And it's hard to come up with a truly positive (non-sedentary) response that isn't radical off-the-grid prepping.
The 'If you can't beat em, join em' and 'it can go on longer than you think' meme has been around here forever too. It may be a tiresome debate, but it is an existential one.
Cut people some slack for their negativity though, even if the long awaited armageddon never comes, this awful hybrid of Orwell and Huxley is ample reason ... and joining the dark side just won't make it better.
We should all spend less time on this site (certainly applies to me), but I'd like to see you more, aiming your hilarious sarcasm at the dissembling sycophant empire kelptocrat apologists, not the helpless lost souls on ZH.
Let me be clear (Obama voice) anything I am aiming at zh commenters (95% or em) is only with good intentions. The problem is many on here confuse me pointing out that there is much bs spewed on this site as their is with others with attacking the commenters. I can't help pointing it out. It's funny that when I do people want me to leave. That is the colplete opposite ideology that this site was founded on.
and no, I won't cut people some slack omn their negativity. There is a difference between being positive, negative and a realist. Staying hunkered down on here is no different than being an alcoholic.
Just chalk me up to being your crazy uncle that you "have" to keep inviting to thanksgiving and pray he does not come.
I disagree Fonz. sorry. I haven't lost because of ZH. But, I have become more informed w.r.t wealth preservation. Moreover, the charts that have delineated, for example, energy consumption, unemployment, FED balance sheet, dark bond market manipulation(s) (remember that chilling time elapsing chart)...etc., etc., demonstrate to me that the market really isn't a market anymore - as much as I like to think it still is - its not. And some will tell me - it probably never was. The doom and gloomers are, essentially, in my opinion, simply expressing the "No Free Lunch" axiom in various ways - that sooner or later - the free ride ends. What form that takes - whose to say. But, the one thing that ZH offers is a perspective aimed at getting to the truth - something you don't get from the MSM.
I remember when the flash crash occurred in May of 2010 - I was on the road - and I had to pull over because of the extreme severity of what at that moment appeared to be incredible losses abound. Few could offer explanation(s) but ZH was at least a forum would I could learn something about what had happened and indeed much of the stories and analyses that have been touted as "tin foil" stuff has now become mainstream understanding and thought.
And there are the golden nuggets - where some of the most insighful observations have been made nowhere else but here. I have remarked inceassantly on it since December 2013 when James Grant handed Steve Liesman his ass on the set of CNBC when he said "The FED can change what things look like, but, the FED can never change what things are." Possibily the most lucid words ever spoken on batshit crazy monetary policy - and it reminds me to stay the course and not get caught up in my broker telling me all the fucking time - that the "sky's the limit!!".
And finally, there are the observations made by the forum's readership itself - that either challenge or endorse ZH from various and many perspectives with aditional sources of information should you care to click on their work. Knuckles once worte a cogent argument way back observing that yields will never rise precisely because the bond market will eventually own the FED and that the FED will actually be forced to monetize the debt to keep yield suppression efforts of the Federal government intact. His conclusion was simply to own bonds and gold. He might have been early, but, I don't think you can say he was wrong. Yes we are in our own world, but, we are in our own world owning a critical view to the insanity of what we observe everyday. ZH is a place to at least try and fucking figure it out. BTFD BTFATH BTF whatever, works until it doesn't and you of all people oughta know that.
Anyhow. I don't mean to piss on anybody's parade, but, we're all on the same side here. We just all wear different lenses. And this sight forces people to observe what's going on through those lenses, and I thank God that it does, because I'm pretty sure I would be a lesser informed person for it were it not to exist. Even the most astute eventually get pursuaded by the idiot majority simply because of human nature.
cheers man.
It sounds from what you are saying that you are only "willing to try to figure it all out" as long as the discussion is only with people that agree with you. That's the problem.
Not at all man. There has been infinite screaming about rate hikes.....since forever - that the Bond market was going to get crushed and yet short term bonds continue to make new highs. Do i think you should buy bonds - fuck no. But the question is not whether the price of bonds is going to crash. The deeper more meaningful question is whether central banks are ever going to return to a strong currency policy, which requires r > rate of price inflation. Do you see that happening with short term debt being rolled over at an exponential rate? Can any government afford this to happen? QE 1, 2, and 3, in reality never ends under this scenario. A taper to zero only means that the FED stopped increaing the size and scope of its balance sheet. They havent begun to actually withdraw their position and its unclear if they ever will. Holding the FED funds rate to near zero - call it what you want - is still QE. They are buying bonds with freshly minted currency, or longer duration or whatever and refusing markets to clear on their own which you and I both know would require much higher yields to attract longs in a free and unfettered market place.
But, lots of people disagree with this. Many argue that the bond market owns the FED and that eventually the FED will be called out as the carry unwinds. Yields invariably will have to tick up in the absence of FED intervention. So....precisely the opposite argument to the above. Both posit completely different outcomes - both seek the truth. And neither offer a scenario thats very friendly ........to anybody.
How about the possibility that the fed owns the bond market, so they now have permanent control over interest rates. Couple that with the possibility that the currency continues to not collapse. What are the odds you would put on that scenario, which is the current one, continuing for another ten years or more?
If you put 0 odds on it then if I were you i'd be glued to this place all day too, just waiting for the big kaboom.
But if I placed decent odds on the possibility that this scenario continues, and I am here all day every day, then this is just another addiction, and one the site preys on and profits off of. Same as everyone else.
well. then you get price inflation and its duration remains as long as people have jobs and are fed and have a roof. can it go on for a while - for sure. but in the absence of productivity - and we seen this in the 70's - prices will rise and it will be this moment that calls out the FED - precisely as it called out Volker.
A correction Fonz aint a bad thing. Its really personified by one simple large transaction - one group of unwise people exchanging assets with another group of wiser people. It aint a bad thing - but - its a necessary thing. A process that ensures that resources are put to their best productive use. Speculation arises from FED intervention and an interest rate of near zero exacerbates mistakes. Its really only a question of who owns what at the end of the day.
Listen to yourself man. You only choose to look at things form your vantage point. "A correction ain't a bad thing". When did I say it was? Maybe to rthe central planning overlords itf is a bad thing? Either way, What does that have to do with my questions?
What if we are in the new 1% economy where the 1% rule the roost and the next 8-9% exist to serve them and live pretty well. Below them is a sliding scale of free shit army, some who have it better than others. In a centrally planned world there is no big correction. Just slight bumps in growth followed by sligt downturns.
Also if you understand that the fed owns the bond market, then you understand that the fed can't be called out. Japan has been this way for decades. The volker moment never happens in that environment.
Do you put Zero odds on the scenario I laid out?
see first sentence.
anyway. i've lost track of the point of the discussion. We wrote a few days back that it might be the stock market that actually calls the FED out precisely because it owns the carry. but, i digress Fonz. I have no idea on the odds of anything happening because if I did, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
And finally,
The volker moment never happens in that environment. .......until it does. there. fixed it for ya.
be well man.
Same to you man.
Great post Pareto.
Maverick
If I recall correctly, you are a wealth advisor, so you are kinda stuck with the cards you are dealt. I, however, will continue to do that which I have done the past 5-6 years: work hard and invest in myself. It works for me and has paid off handsomely. The other day I bought myself a new ermine coat and now I give myself handjobs all the time. I'm thinking of getting myself an 8 carat diamond ring next. I can't give myself blowjobs, but cut a cucumber in half, push your thumb in the center to loosen it up a little, then put it in the microwave for a few seconds and it comes a pretty close second.
That is a total cop out. Of you really want to give yourself a blowjob you can make it happen, even if it means severe injury.
Funny shit man.
Yes, I am reliant on the markets in the same way Tyler is reliant on us clicking and commenting.
Thanks for the tip, cangaroo. And to think I've been wasting my money on beef liver all these years.
He's not a banker, no get out of jail card.
The guys at Solindra wern't bankers either and they are free as a bird. BTW what ever happened to that "investigation" Obama was going to order?
You're still a fucking idiot!
The PPT gots this covered. The 'market' will never, ever again go down significantly. Just BTFD cuz daddy needs a new pair o'shoes, and car, and 2nd house, and etc., etc., etc.
Need Gartman to be all in before this thing tanks
Buy the fucking apocalypse?
He who sells first, might get his account credited on settlement day.
Does the Zimbabwe market confirm this?
major risk-off coming.....
And so the 0.95 correlation between stawk performance and QE trend looks to be continuing. . .
So now we are going to have a lot more shorts to squeeze this bitch higher soon.
As mentioned yesterday 1965 on Spooze is significant I'd say a 8/10 level. Russy and HY paved the way and now Spooze is confirming. All that said this has been the exact type of scenario/time when a verbal intervention would arrive so who the fuck knows.
BTFBELGIANRESCUE????? Biggest difference with this latest BTFD momo rally-hats party is USD just absolutely rocketing higher the last two months so we shall see. Something's brewing.
$/Y looking like putting in an interesting outside down day today....would watch this carefully as a sign that Y carry getting unwound as US stocks fslip....could get ugly
Nothing to see here, move along.
BUY, BUY, BUY!
Boy you guys sure like to make things complicated. I just sell high and buy low; why complicate your life.