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The September Jobs Report Looms: What The Major Banks Expect
The major banks predict how many jobs the BLS will reveal were added in September. Here are the numbers:
- Citigroup 175K
- HSBC 200K
- Deutsche Bank 200K
- JP Morgan 225K
- Morgan Stanley 230K
- Goldman Sachs 230K
- BofAML 235K
- UBS 250K
And here is RanSquawk's summary of the key expectations and notable highlights about the upcoming non-farm payrolls number:
- US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) M/M Exp. 215K (Low 155K, High 265K), Prev. 142K, Jul 212K
- US Unemployment Rate (Sep) M/M Exp. 6.1% (Low 6.0%, High 6.2%), Prev. 6.1%, Jul 6.2%.
- Recent labor data signals a pick-up in the headline after job creation unexpectedly slowed last month
- Participants will be looking at real wages for signs the labor market is strengthening beyond the unemployment rate
Recent labour data out of the US has indicated that today’s NFP will likely show a rebound after unexpectedly slowing last month, although with Fed QE almost certainly set to end this month, this jobs release is unlikely to delay the end of bond buying. However, at the present time, the FOMC appears to be in a current state of change where they are moving away from time dependent forward guidance and are now more data dependent when it comes to the first rate hike. As such, it would likely take a number of disappointing NFP releases and other weak labour data to see the Fed push back timing of the first hike.
Most recent data has been relatively positive with Wednesday’s ADP release, which is often viewed as a strong indicator for NFP, relatively in line with expectations at 205k and the initial jobless claims 4-week average continuing to track below 310K. One side note however is that the Birth/Death ratio in September is often a drag on the headline figure with 2013 showing a drag of 30K, 2012 a drag of 14K and 2011 a drag of 26K.
In recent months the Fed’s narrative on the labour market has been that the labour market is continuing to improve but slack still remains. Once again, initial focus will be on the headline figure, however participants will also be looking for any signs of a pick-up in real wage growth showing improvement not just in the number of people in full or part-time work, but in quality of the labour market.
Market Reaction
As is usual for the release of NFP, any out-of-line reading for the headline will likely see a fast-money move with a beat on expectations likely supporting equity markets and the USD however weigh on gold and treasuries as flows move into riskier assets. However, any large beat could also bring forward expectations of a rate hike from the Fed and equities could pull off best levels with Eurodollars coming under pressure and curve steepening observed. If the main components are broadly in-line, focus could again turn to the Average Hourly Earnings component of the report as the Fed identified that slack remains in the labour market. If hourly earnings are higher than expected then the report could be seen as supporting the more hawkish members of the Fed who are calling for a rate hike.
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200K hooker and cocaine dealer jobs
November electons are looming large.....this is the big one!
off topic, but I don't care...
look at the massive volume that just tanked the paper silver just now and it's under 17/oz once again!
Massive spike in volume over 300,000. Love it. Stack up that phyzz, bitchez!
and FYI, supplies in huge shortage right now and there has been record setting sales of silver Eagles again in the last few days. Premiums have spiked up as well and there are now delivery delays of up to 2 or more weeks.
Get your orders placed now for phyzz. You can wait to see if it drops to 16 or 15 or 10, but at the same time there won't be any supply and premiums might spike to 25% or higher just to off-set the downward paper price manipulation, so don't fucking wait to add to your stacks.
November elections are looming large.....this is the big one!
Yeah....I meant to say it twice. Damn I hate that.
If it even matches expectations, $6.022 x 10^23 gold contracts will be dumped on the market over the span of a picosecond.
Who needs real money when you don't have a real job?
The new batch of 29.5 hr/wk jobs should have us skying.
13/hr, a living wage with creditit cards maxed, oh time to hit the malls-see ya at tj's...
Junction 210K
The Revel casino in Atlantic City just sold for about $110 million at auction. This casino cost about $2.5 billion to build 4 years ago and now the casino is sold for the alleged sale price of one super duper apartment at 15 Central Park West. The casino employed 3,000 non-union workers. That is some disconnect, one apartment, even occupying two floors with a view of Central Park, being valued as much as a 47 story building with 1,400 rooms.
that was the problem if they were UNION jobs the giverment and Crusty woulda bailed them out.
That's going to fuck up the comps.
They could scrap it for more than 110m.
100 to 1 it was talented Russian hackers who got into J.P. Morgan's database.
They have my support (the Russians, that is).
Fuck J.P. Morgan Chase.
Crooks and thieves.
Rapacious louts.
210K = McD's.
My prediction (based on nothing) is that it'll blow the lid off and come in around 300K. Hourly wages will be flat to slightly up.
300K and Bill Dudley has a bad day!
NoDebt
That's my thoughts also after all it's good news Friday. Gotta keep em bullish on 'merika.
Elections trump the market, look for a big number and for unemployment to drop below 6%. and there will be much rejoicing in the MSM.
I cant imagine them reaching that far...... I can see 6 even but to bet to 5.9..... that would be well very magikal....
5.9% isn't under 6%? Curious. Last month was reported down from 6.7% to 6.3%. Under 6% is well within range.
Well they need a reason to prolong QE for a "little" bit...
So my guess is the print below 150k (e.g. 135k --> disaster)
And then: SURPRISE!!! tapering the taper!! And then markets go crazy!!
Market reaction - the market may go up and the market may go down.
Yeah, right, now tell us something we don't know.
DavidC
Oh yea, it will be better than expected! Gotta stay focused it's election time. Can always "revise" numbers afterwards.
DOW 18,000 here we come. Now BTFDMF'ers!
IF monkeys fly out of my ass it could mean I have ebola
meaningless cept to the traders and bots...
we all know better than to predict a a manipulated number...
One things about MS and GS...
The number(s) are always optomisitic and always on the wrong end!
Part-time leaf blowers and pressure washer operaters are coming into demand.
Part-time leaf blowers and pressure washer operaters are coming into demand.
Excellent point(s). Add the growing surge over the last 12 years of undocumented workers and the issue of how to track them in assembling these numbers and it only makes you laugh harder!
More manipulated mirage markets!
whatever the numbers are the insiders are already cashing out on the "news". really, anyone believe the release and number mean anything except a trade for manipulators and their masters. just a fucking joke to give a shit about this number...lol.
162k
I am looking for Goldilocks. 215K 6.0 and last month revised upward to 175k...... This is what my cat told me.... hes been about as acurate as the pundits....
248 000...just in
I look at all these figures and I confess to being almost indifferent in view of the seasonal adjustments, the definition of what constitutes employed, the falling participation rate, the aging population, the record food stamp recipients, the hundreds of thousands of military personnel stationed overseas, the slide in real wages for those lower down the food chain and the record number of adult kids living at home in the basement.
But yes, the figures are good. Too bad the reality of America is not so good.