Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns

Tyler Durden's picture

Remember Greece: the country that in 2010 launched Europe's sovereign solvency crisis and the ECB's own helpless attempts at intervention, which later was "saved", only to default shortly thereafter (but without triggering CDS as that would end the Eurozone's amusing monetary experiment and collapse the Deutsche Bank $100 trillion house of derivative cards), which later was again "saved" when every single global central bank made sure Greek bonds became the only yield-generating securities in the world? Well, the country which at last count was doing ok, is about to not be ok. Because according to none other than S&P, at some point over the next 15 months, Greek debt is about to be in default when the country is no longer able to cover its financing needs. In other words, back to square one.

As Bloomberg reports, citing Real News, S&P analyst Marie-France Raynaud said Greece can’t cover its own financing needs.

How is that possible? Isn't Europe so fixed, it no longer has anything to worry about except deflation, pardon, inflation?

Guesst not. According to Bloomberg, S&P estimates Greek financing needs for the next 15 months to be at EU43 billion.

This is a problem because even if Greece sells bonds this year and next, sales won’t be enough to cover net financing needs. So maybe Greece will sell more bonds? Well, the problem with that is that the second the LIFO paradigm of bond investing no longer works, and the last guy in may be stuck holding the bag, nobody will want to buy 1 penny in debt issued by Greece.

The specifics: S&P estimates Greece will draw EU5 billion from intl bond sales, EU20 billion from internal mkt, EU12 billion from official lenders inluding the IMF in next 15 mos. S&P also forecasts Greece will repay EU3 billion in bonds held by investors who refused to participate in 2012 debt writedown, and if it doesn't then Greece will following Argentina in being held in "contempt to court" fo cramming down foreign law covenants. Just kidding: that would mean the global legal system actually works instead of serves merely to make the rich richer.

As for Greece, it appears that suddenly the idyllic image of its recovery is about to be torn to shreds and the Syntagma riotcam will have to come out of hibernation.

Or maybe it won't. In a case of populist pandering that Obama himself would be proud, at the same time as the S&P report hit, the Greek premier Antonis Samaras said in a Kathimerini op-ed that if political stability isn’t threatened, Greece won’t need emergency loans in few months, and will achieve final settlement on public debt. He added that liquidity in Greece will be restored after ECB stress tests on country’s lenders and that in stark contrast to what S&P just said, Greece doesn’t need new bailout agreement, no new loans.

Actually, it will. The backdoor left open by Samaras is that "achievements will be endangered in case of political instability, and if parliament has to elect president" adding tbat the "government will not allow those who want country to commit suicide to have it their way."

In other words, Greece will default the second the people start protesting the crushing, and very simple math, and they decide they have had enough of the technocrat and appoint another president. Because, you see, it is not that Greece implemented zero reform, and rooted out the pervasive cooruption that saw billions in foreign "aid" end up in offshore bank accounts of the political oligarchy, or the simple math of sources and uses of funds: it is the danger of the Greek people returning to what they did best in those days of 2010 and 2011 when every other day saw a riot in the center of Athens, that will be the straw that finally breaks the camel's back.

And thus we go back to square one, as we always said we would, when only timing was a matter of debate. Well, we now know the timing: T minus 15 months and counting to yet another Eurozone collapse.

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X.inf.capt's picture

coming to a city near you!!

#bugged_out

Millivanilli's picture

The banksters will loan you money to stay solvent until ALL THE LAND, LABOR AND RESOURCES are either controlled or outright OWNED BY THEM.

 

All with money created out of thin air...

Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

 

There is nothing paper cannot solve

y3maxx's picture

...Joe Biden may be the Black Swan triggering WW 3

"Turkey's President Demands Biden Apologize Over Comments About ISIS"

Go Joe!

Surly Bear's picture

Wait, this was fixed /sarc

Stockmonger's picture

Greece should be renamed Krugmania.

BaBaBouy's picture

"GREEKS Need MOAR Bailouts"

WOW... WHO Could Have Predicted THIS ???

edotabin's picture

It will be less than 15 months. The present gov't has 6-9 months maximum to pull a magic rabbit out of its ass.

Peter Pan's picture

I think you meant to say donkey.

Paveway IV's picture

In case anyone missed it, Mr. Panos explains everything you need to know about the Greek financial crisis:

(Volume warning at the ten second mark, NSFW)

Financial "Crisis" in Greece

JamesBond's picture

or they could balance their budgets and shrug off the yoke of their EU financial oppressers 

 

 

 

 

jb

sofokleous's picture

on your assistance as well !

WOAR's picture

"Welcome to Krugmanstan! Thank you for flying BernankeBus Airlines, we hope to see you again soon!"

NoDecaf's picture

Hopefully the Greek finance ministry upgraded their archives from garbage bags to plastic bins. Yes, lots of paper and another 20 summit meetings and they'll be squared away, good for another 5 years.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Your humorous sarcasm aside, there is virtually nothing that brains and balls can't solve. Unfortunately for the Greeks, they lack both in adequate amounts.

Centuries of Serfdom under the Aristocrats and colluding Church, has turned them into Sheeple.

In the final analysis, a People deserve their leaders.

deeply indebted's picture

Wait. Are you implying that it is actually DEBT that leads to insolvency??

How novel...I doubt you'd get any Central Bankers to go along with you though. ;-)

Bloppy's picture

Central bankers will talk their way out of this mess like they always do, "calming" investors. Same ol' bs.

 

Elsewhere: Ben Affleck's warped Islamoapologism too much for Bill Maher, mayhem ensues

TheSecondLaw's picture

Ben wasn't just apologising for Islam. He was apologising for all dumb-superstitious irrationals who believe in gods.

Buck Johnson's picture

They are doing everything they can to delay the inevitable.  The collapse of the EU and the collapse of the Western banking system along with the US.

 

 

Sudden Debt's picture

Yeah... Those bonds had a great return... To bad nobody will ever get the interest... Or the inlay...

bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

We will know the true story in 21 days.

HardlyZero's picture

Counting Numbers:

12 monkeys, Patient Zero, Omega Man

 

 

El Vaquero's picture

Shit, if we can keep it contained in NJ, it could be like having our cake and eating it too!

 

(Sorry, if you live in NJ, you should GTFO with or without Ebola.)

Blammo's picture

Solve too much debt by borrowing more money !That could work

stant's picture

France doesn't have that long

fonzannoon's picture

Plane quarantined at Newark airport. No one allowed to get off flight

 

FieldingMellish's picture

LOL @ the CDC

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-officials-meet-flight-passenger-shows-ebola-symptoms/story?id=25965383

After they were off the plane and it was determined he was not contagious, the rest of the passengers were allowed off, a source with knowledge of the situation told ABC News.

 

------

 

It was determined? How and by who? Doesn't it take 12 hours to confirm?

fonzannoon's picture

A guy from Liberia barfing on the plane...yup. All good. Everyone else can go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NNOrp_83RU

ShrNfr's picture

I suspect that is the reason that they are responding like this. Praise the Lord and pass the barf bag.

Baldrick's picture

God forgive me for saying this, but it would be better if he did not survive. If he pulls through it will be the same as if Disney World offered a free day. ANY person who has exposure and means to get here will do so.

Also the thing I have not seen mentioned is the time Duncan spent in the waiting in the er on his first visit. A fever and abdominal pain do not rate high on the trauma list. So he is sitting there, sweating, and after 3 to 5 hours goes to an exam room. In the meantime others, SOME with children, are taking his former seat. Have any of you WATCHED young children?

Skateboarder's picture

fonz, I'm expecting air travel to be cut off to the public in due course.

fonzannoon's picture

I am flying out of JFK very soon. Poop.

So this flight came from Brussels...can't they just look at the barfers passport to see if he transferred there from ebolaville?

Skateboarder's picture

This place has been West Ebolaville from the moment that first doctor who got it was flown back here.

Infinite QE's picture

No way. Ebola himself will make sure this thing gets into every major airport in Amerika. Need maximum chaos to bring on their New Bolshevik agenda.

Skateboarder's picture

I guess that is true. Well... they're gonna shut it off after enough 'carriers' (you only need to 'show' 'symptoms') make it through and they are satisfied.

g'kar's picture

We're sorry, due to the potential spread of ebola, all elections will be postponed until a later date to be determined.

Peter Pan's picture

The evils of this world are mutating. Pretty soon it will be Obola and Ebama that we are talking about.

TruthInSunshine's picture

g'kar wrote:

"We're sorry, due to the potential spread of ebola, all elections will be postponed until a later date to be determined."

 

Don't forget bank/ATM holidays.

If it gets to that point, given the giant sucking sound that already is middle class consumer spending (that's not procured through EZ Debt), we will all know, 100% full on, that there's an uncontrolled outbreak that's real.

g'kar's picture

"Don't forget bank/ATM holidays."

 

 

Yeah, that'll be part of the coming staycation.

 

StychoKiller's picture

I would assert that politicians have been a worse plague than Ebola!

FieldingMellish's picture

Dollar index will be well over 100 by the time this settles out. That should put gold about $800-$900. Silver around $10. From there we await the next crisis.

Yen Cross's picture

  Your comment is completely inaccurate and foolish. The usdx is going to tank.

 Fear will drive people into bonds and p/ms, or just pain old cash that won't be traded through MMF(money market funds).

 If Ebola speads through the county (USA)it will paralyze commerce and supply lines.

fonzannoon's picture

Yen, you have forgotten more about currencies than I will ever be able to learn. With that said, DXY is going to 95. Bonds may stay bid somewhat (I expect a steady rise back to 3% on the 10yr by New Years) and gold will end the year around $1,100.

Just my guesses. 

If Ebola goes walking dead then all bets are off.

Yen Cross's picture

  To each their own Fonz. That's why it's "fight club". I don't really correlate gold to the USDX, because there's so much manipulation through forward buying and selling. (hedging physical)

  I can assure of one thing though. The U.S. isn't the "safe haven" you've been able to run to in the past. Just because $ cash is in demand, doesn't mean it's reflected in the money markets.

 If bond yields rise like you're predicting, equities would hypothetically selloff. Where would that cash go?

 You're due for a break Fonz. You had that hurricane, and now the freaking plague is just around the corner. I hope you make millions and buy a tropical island to raise your children on. :-)

fonzannoon's picture

You are invited to the island anytime. I gave up 2 years ago. My cash is safe in the spy and anything I'm willing to risk is in 3x spy as it should be. 

 

Forget it man Ebola is a game changer I'm sure of it

gatorengineer's picture

Never a better signal to go short than Fonz going beta long.  LOL....