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Game Over Abenomics: "This Week Japan Will Acknowledge It Is In Recession", Goldman Reveals
We have been waiting for this particular bolded sentence ever since we predicted it would take place back in December 2012 when a bunch of Keynesians, a disgraced former/current prime minister with a diarrhea problem and, of course, the Goldman Sachs' corner suite, first unleashed Abenomics.
From Goldman's Naohiko Baba, previewing this week's key Japanese economic events
The Cabinet Office makes an assessment of the state of the economy based on the trend in the coincident CI, using a set of objective criteria. The August coincident CI is set to print negative mom. In this case, the Cabinet Office’s economic assessment will likely shift downward to “signaling a possible turning point” from the current level of “weakening”. According to the Cabinet Office, such a change in assessment provisionally indicates a likelihood that the economy has already fallen into recession. This is effectively akin to the government acknowledging that the economy is in recession.
And because every Keynesian lunacy has to end some time, RIP Abenomics: December 2012 - October 2014.
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QE-Kiri time?
It is all too confusing for me. When I think of Japan these days, I think of the Daiichi Fukushima meltdown and that great fight scene at the end of "Blood On The Sun" (1945), where James Cagney's character, reporter Nick Condon, squares off against the evil Captain Oshima (played by real life judo champion Jack Sergel, a former LAPD sargeant, whose screen monniker was John Halloran). What a fight, decades ahead of its time.
Wait a minute.
They been sayin' that everything's all OK, growth is just around the corner we just went around, again.
Damn, I'm not gonna give them but a few more chances to convince me.
Paul Krugman just wrote the other day that Japan needs to more quickly debauch its currency, go even more deeply into further debt faster, and destroy the collective savings (whatever remains) of its people more efficiently if it hopes to turn things around.
Krugmanomics FTL.
I guarantee anything that Krugman would view a major global war resulting in the death hundreds of millions as a positive, stimulating and "good" development.
Does anybody over here realize how tasty fresh housecat tartar morsels on watercress with wasabi is?
OK, OK.. so I am a sick puppy and this probably will zing over most folks heads.
..but I almost spit laughing over all the monitors after writing it.
..maybe something about being there decades ago..
Opinions please. Does this make the dollar stronger and gold/silver weaker? It seems to me that silver is heading to $15 for support. I really want to buy some but it seems that there is no support yet.
There is no support. Granny has a crutch and there are no markets.
I own Silver but I am also a realist. A sad fucking realist.
Gold and silver are worthless as there is no one with money that can buy them long term. This is the why the prices are falling.
Don't go all in on precious until you see the markets beginning to crash. But it would be wise to keep picking up a little all along.
There are many other non financial assets that you should be buying right now.
"We are here to announce that our economy is in a recession", clears throat and whispers sofly off microphone "and our entire country will die a horrific death from radiation poisoning.'
... and the dominoes ?
Fallout should be expected, this may hit faith in currencies in a big way. Currencies are IOUs, glorified and pretty pieces of paper printed and handed out by governments. Whether because of modern printing options or in an effort to thwart counterfeiters most of us will admit countries have raised the bar concerning the appearance of their currency, but that does not change their value.
This has almost become a full blown beauty contest and taken our minds off what is really behind these pretty little tokens. A piece of paper with great power, based only on faith, they are mere promises of stored value and wealth, and the value of these promises can change in an instant. With this in mind currencies may not be the best place to store your wealth. The article below delves deeper into currencies as a great "Trojan horse" for governments to fleece the average citizen of their wealth.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/10/currencies-are-ious.html
"This may hit faith in fiat currencies in a big way"
I doubt it. People are stupid, the only ones who will think of this as further evidence fiat currencies cannot be trusted are people like us who already think that way. This may lead to a lose of faith in the yen(its shocking to me that anyone still has any faith in it anyway), but it will probably lead to a 'flight to safety' to the USD. Not gold or anything like that. As of right now, there is no credible alternative fiat currency to the dollar.
Agreed on all points.
For any sharpies who are about to post the word "BitCoin" in response, you can stow that shit. It ain't the answer.
Bitcoin boys are fucked when the power goes out
sooooooooooooooooooooo fucking agreeee !!!!!!!!
total blackout off grid is THE solution to enlighten the REEL world.
We're all fucked when the power goes out. Not being able to use bitcoins would be the least of our problems.
Not with currency swaps. Yen should be down 2% right now but it's not because of the swaps. People will learn to ignore currency prices going forward as they are all rigged.
Cuddlefish and Asparagus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ny6dEXmphg
Fall down seven times, get up eight.
Old Japanese Proverb
Et si tu tombes 7 fois
Toujours se relever 8
Mylene Farmer
Fall down 100 000 times, get up 100 001. Fall down for 100 001st time ... into open casket. Never get up again. Spent whole life getting up and falling down again.
PT
I didn't think I would live long enough to see the next officially-declared recession. I could still croak in the next few days, I suppose.
Fortunately, it will be in Japan. That could never happen here.
Neither could ebola. Our president said so.
Dat bekuz we be excepshunul, mothafuckahs. Ray Rice, he shows dat bitch howsza behaves.
Yes, my friends, the very fabric of society has come unravelled.
that means they have been in a depression for awhile then
About 25 years, yeah.
The Japanese will never learn. Don't. Eat. The. Blowfish.
Just another reason to print MOAR.
Hai! Moar Abe!
Methinks if we add up the percentage approval ratings of Obie, Abie and Davie, it'd still be less than the combined IQ of my two Schnauzers.
It is clear that the prospects for Japan are lousy. The writing is on the wall. Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency. This means paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its GDP and is the highest in the industrialized world.
The moment the Japaneses stock market fails to rise enough to offset inflation and realizes even a weaker yen will not help we will see a tsunami of money fleeing Japan. This will constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen. This has been a long time coming and I contend the cross-border flow of money leaving Japan is why some stock markets have remained so resilient . When Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world and hopefully end some of the worlds bad money policies. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html
This is the stuff wars are made of.
And seems to me We the People are simply being left clueless.
We're gonna have an election on an economy? How about identity theft? "Because I want to see you die on my I-phone phucker"?
I mean seriously...do we even have the idea of Government here?
Anyone?
If it was important they sure as hell wouldn't trust it to an election.
They are circling the toilet at a high rate of speed but I'm willing to bet they won't actually admit they screwed the pooch badly and they are not going to lose face in public. They might however put up a half-assed fix to avoid reality a little longer.
Floaters take a few times to flush.
Nikkei 225 opens at 160+ in the positive for them tonight. Looks like Japan doesn't care how bad it is...
Golden !
Fool me once , shame on Abe .......Fool me 20 times, shame on Bernanke
Destroyed by a double wammy typhoon. Goldman Sachs and the weather.
Did not Kyle Bass say when this happens, could cause a major run to U.S. bonds?
Oh boy.
Yep. My recollection is that Kyle Bass predicted Japan would blow up by the beginning of 2015. He might not be far off. Imagine the tremors a Yen failure will have on fiat currencies generally. Folks can't dismiss it like they did in lesser third world economies. Japan is firmly first world. The future implications for the dollar are daunting.
what makes you think the Japanese aren't in US bonds already?
GPIF has been divesting its investments including into US based assets for much of the year already
and reports from right here on ZH tells us bids at japanese bond auctions are at record lows, japanese money have already deserted their own paper
and Jim Grant's other article 1 page back says he's scratching his head at who would piling into US bonds based on an inflating currency, ha, the Japanese that's who, they still get the carry return from USD/Yen even at low yields.
Well...his nickel trade is getting annihilated so maybe we could start there.
The book has already been written folks: "Greenspan's Legacy of Debt." 2008. Stay liquid...stay smart. "The media has everything under control." Just follow the camera....
My forecast of minus 5% of Japan GDP made in Jan 2014 is now fulfilled and exceeded
Japanese seems to have the habit of manipulating their data only a little
It's rigged to go up until it's rigged to go down.
If Japan does enter a recession, by no means certain at this stage, it's due to the sales tax hike in April. How Keynesian is that?
Too bad Paulson bailed out his buddies at Goldman.
Goldman is doing the fallen angle's work again.
The major coffee bean importer in Japan said they are raising their import costs bye 25% in November. Vending machine boys are gonna be busy changing the prices on that shitty can coffee.