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Europe's Triple-Dip Recession Arrives: German Industrial Production Crashes Most Since February 2009
Yesterday it was German manufacturing orders which cratered 5.7% in August following a freak, 4.9% rebound in July, prompting Goldman to warn that "the underlying dynamic has weakened further at the end of Q3" ...
... And then a few hours ago we finally got undeniable confirmation that Europe is once again in recession, its third since Lehman, only this one is worse: it is led by the "core" countries, with Germany in the forefront, a Germany which just reported industrial output which suffered its biggest monthly decline in more than five years in August. Specifically, German IP tumbled 4%, led by capital goods which crashed 8.8%; consumer goods sliding 0.4%, and basic goods dropping 1.9%, with the headline plunge far below the consensus of -1.5%, and below even the worst forecast of -3.0%, the biggest drop since February 2009, a result which according to the FT rose "fears that Europe’s biggest economy might be heading for recession and prompting renewed concern about the economic health of the eurozone."
Oh, don't be afraid: the world's largest economic block is now without doubt in a triple-dip recession, which will in turn drag both the US and China down with it.
Output plunged 4.0 per cent from July, data published on Tuesday show, far more than the average 1.5 per cent drop forecast by economists and the largest decrease since February 2009, when the global financial crisis first hit Europe’s factories.
Coming on top of poor August data for industrial orders earlier this week, the numbers indicate that Germany is starting to suffer from a global weakening in demand for its exports due to geopolitical upheavals and slower growth in China.
With the figures influenced by plants closing for later than usual summer holidays, economists hedged their bets about the outlook for the rest of the year.
But they are no longer ruling out Germany falling into recession – with a possible decline in gross domestic product coming in the third quarter on top of the 0.2 per cent drop recorded in the three months to June.
Carsten Brzeski of ING bank wrote that a strong labour market and robust domestic consumption should “at least partly” offset weaker industrial output. “Whether this will be enough to avoid a technical recession, ie another contraction in the third quarter, is with today’s industrial production numbers too early to tell.”
Ralph Solveen, economist at Commerzbank, took a more optimistic view, saying that the late timing of summer holidays was “key”. But he too now expects GDP to fall growth to fall towards zero. “The trend is pointing down, with the German economy in the third quarter likely to have stagnated at best.”
And finally from Goldman: "Bottom line: Industrial production declined sharply in August partly owing to seasonal factors. The underlying trend, however, is also pointing downwards."
Well, at least the Eurozone, and the artificial "political capital" currency was bailed out at all costs, and since the "chairman got to work" nobody else had to, and thus there was zero reform in any of Europe's broken economies. Enjoy your hard-earned, and third in the past 6 years recession, Europe. Don't worry though, the rest of the world is coming right behind you.
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WAIT FOR THE PIPELINE BITCHEZZ!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MLry6Cn_D4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEL6P8uL-PQ
Ausgezeichnet !!!!
MOAR!! MOAR!! MOAR!!!
Don't worry Belgium is ordering moar checkbooks. NSF?
In an unbacked currency there is no such thing as insufficient funds (NSF) because the printer is always ready and able to print to infinity. Only insufficient confidence (NSC).
Unbacked.....we hear you.
Thank goodness we have the Federal Reserve.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLL2r3hXmjA
confidence is like oxygen, you don't realize how important it is until it is all gone
We're just in the process of still trying to form a govenrment after our first 5 months of election...
I guess we're trying to break our former record again... 400 days without a government...
No government?
Then, who fucks your people?
No gold for you.
Bauen macht arbeit und arbeit macht frei.
This is all do to american sanctions! Nothing else!
Whole Europe is collapsing!
Russia was the biggest costumer in Europe ! Was.
Yet the market continues to rise.....and gold and silver keep getting hammered. White is black and down is up. Is this what insanity feels like?
Nope, insanity is when you do the same thing over and over again, and expect a different result. Kind of like trying to figuring out ebola.
Ebola had 300 major mutations in the virus in only the first three weeks of the start of the human spread. Several trillion tests in search of a more lethal virus are made each time the virus infects a new patient.
And finally from Goldman: "Bottom line: Industrial production declined sharply in August partly owing to seasonal factors." What? Summer causes lower GDP now too?
THX very much, this combo just made me spit on my screen so i laughed hard.
upvote for all 3.
From boots on the ground I can tell you orders for new construction equipment in Germany are off by +50% this year. One crane manufacturer told me they only sold 800 units in Europe this year when they normally sell over 2,000 and lost orders for "hundreds of machines" to Russia due to sanctions.
Europe needs ghost cities.
Give us an epidemic or continental war or two and we'll have them.
Possibles to build wealth or GDP in Germany
- Lebensraum
- Open up the Sudetenland
- Sell off the Underground Homes, Bunkers & Factories from WWII
- Bring in More Immigrants as cheap labor & consumers
- Bring in Disease to spark profits in Health Care & Big Pharma
- Put too much fluoride into the Water Systems and then channel funds into Health Care
- Use contaminated Inoculation Shots to raise profits & Employment in Education, Welfare, and Health Care
- Set up a Singapore like city in the Pacific with mineral & Petro Resources... then form a new German colony around this "German Port City"
- Pick out the Richest African Locations, Locate the biggest potential commodity markets and move in completely with citizens, factories, universities, parks, pilgrimages... and change the culture to a more German one... sort of like Modern Israel... Then you just Secede from the original nation... happens all the time in Africa
Been tried twice before - not good. Odd how the ones promoting the third attempt seem to be mostly on the far side of the Atlantic.
Those nasty sanctions, or were the bills not being paid?
Cranes are sold Jerry Maguire style. show me the money!
There are no past due bills on stuff like that. You wire money.. You get crane. No money No crane
I guess that explains the credit and nat gas crisis we don't have.
Moar Russian sanctions!!
http://olduvai.ca
How about some more Russian sanctions, that will help, a little bit of gas rationing would be nice to.
Germany says thanks USA for the sanctions on Russia....obviously US trying hard to trash Europe. Merkle helping out.
Germany has to support sanctions or be Russia's bitch until new energy generation is discovered.
Germany has to support sanctions and be USSA's bitch until german territory is under occupation.
There, fixed. You don't have to thank me.
Wishing doesn't make it so... look at Putin's Ruble and his wish to become a reserve currency.
The world can look upon a country as an asshole and it can still remain a reserve currency but if the world looks upon a country as a crazy asshole that country cannot become a reserve currency.
Just a statement of fact, reserve currency status demands belief in stability.
Don't forget that the retail sector in Germany is having a diffuclt time too.
not so surprising since germany sell essentially to europ... recession in europ & no growth = no spendings = no germany export = no germany profits.
germans is tied with europ. this is why they are mad about france doin nothing...
cue the clip of hitler saying that higher stock prices will help poor people consume moar and that a depression is UNpossible with equities at current levels.
Well, it would have been a triple dip recession if we had ever gotten out of the world wide depression that we have been in. A depression that these asshole seem hell bent on driving to a world conflict with their insane policies.
So if Germany is sinking...Europe is fucked.
Don't think Germany will be going too much in for the money printing......bad news Drahgi.
Yeah but Greece still needs a bailout from the Germans, what to do, what to do?
They do NOT NEED to get a bailout but ..But TO GET THE HELL OUT of that EuroLand. And FAST
With their own printing machine they will have plenty of options .
Oh! I forgot they have 2-3 Gold mines and with it Silver and copper to back it up.
We won't mention all the other benefits of the SEA Routes and Tourism ( Due to good weather) as well as potential Gas Fields and plenty of minerals.
Only the Western and Domestic Oligarchs want them as Slaves.
Sorry, but that is not the decision of the german central bank any more. So now it's not bad news for Draghi it's bad news for all savers in the EU. And believe it or not there are quite a few saves still alive or around, but they probably are dying out more and more.
When my man wants to print, my man will print.
Public opinion is just theatre.
the choice is simple :
EU cannot refuse to print money, coz it is actual japan & usa behavior to keep floeating.
germany can refuse to participate to the printing. -> most big crisis europ ever.
1- they accept, rock n noll for infinite ponzy.
2- they refuse, extrem issue = euro explosion.
i let you choose what will happen...
Clearly manufacturing is taking a much needed breather in order to ramp up for the busy holiday season. The savy shoppers are resting up so they will have plenty of energy to snap up all the super blue light bargins. The great Amerikan consumer will pull their load, they have plenty of storage units just waiting to be loaded with cheap shit they don't need, bought with money they don't have.
Looks like we will need MOAR!
Just say... charge it!
Mutti now caught in the cross hairs of world recession, not knowing what to do with the Savings glut of the Northern Euro nations; trying to resist the cry for North-South infrastructure investments in Euro zone to kick start local demand.
She won't do it unless the Southern States reign in government spending.
We are in a Dilemma : We desperately need to start Euro infrastructure investment to create regional growth--or else we head to civil dissension of major proportions all over Europe (as France and Catalonia now tip into tail spin). But it cannot be in government spending into a leaky barrel of Oligarchy scamming.
We have to reform finance, government and then the economy in Eurozone. A zone divided !
All the while Pax Americana pours oil and fiat billions on its sterile war games.
(Very much a Charles V situation with proxy wars of religion and Conditorri minions raping the Mecca Vatican and killing the populace all over a continent in flames.)
In that Renaissance context : China plays as Ottoman Empire standing in the wings.
I think Potus dreams of a Lepanto moment!
But first he has to solve the problem of more pressing threats not least of which is now looming King Ebola.
Brave new world order now sinking into 1984 type dystopia.
That infrastructure thing is a large part of wha got Europe into the sh1t in the first place. That and a crackpot idea that a crisis would be necessary to weld the currency union together (take a bow Jacques Delors et al).
What got Europe into this shit storm is the global financialized structure created by Reaganomics-Thatcher under "our money your problem exorbitant privilege" and subsequent Berlin Wall collapse NWO outourcing hubris. It all started in 1971 BW revoke on the financial side.
The Euro banks became part and parcel of this global scam. But when Lehman occurred they were naked and unable to withstand the shock and awe of WS/City/Squid financial WMD threat. They were totally party to it those mega wholesale Euro banks; all of them; sucked into the WWW of financialization.
They caved in in 2009 at G20 meeting in UK and did not do due diligence to shut down the Euro financial casino and hang those bankstas that were scamming Libor/Forex/Abacus--"you name it they did it" gangsta cabal. Running rampant thanks to FED QE/ZIRP pouring oil onto the fire of oligarchy "musical chairs" on the Titanic.
Instead, they, the Euro governments, massively bailed out those mutti-phukkas, using state money.
And the collective government debt to GDP ratio went ballistic, especially in Southern Europe.
Then the first dominos of the state collapse of PIIGS occurred : Ireland and more so Greece!
(Precisely concocted by those very TBTF wholesale banks and their shadow banking SIV/HF partners with their Ferrari in/out shell companies parked in the Caymans. What a fest feast that was. Oligarchy profits spiralled like never before, post-Lehman, in those UK controlled tax havens, as elsewhere. At the expense of the common man of first world.)
This whole shooting match began on PRIVATE BANKING SIDE, with the Reagan-Thatcher Sicilian kiss to welfare state of USA/Europe, in 1979/1981. It then spread to the state sector as those corrupt Mutti/Sarko/Blair-Brown/Berlu/Papadopoulos/Aznar/Barroso brigade were up to their necks in kissing Banksta ass in Eurozone (like Obammy in US) to save their political necks.
Simple to understand like all history, if you respect the time line of events and keep your head screwed on to understand CAUSALITY.
Now what were you saying about infrastructure projects as being the ROOT cause of Euro demise??
LoL MarketWatch still hasn't given up on trashing gold. gettting desperate guys.
Is Germany subcontracting out her manufacturing?
I work for a company based here in Ireland in the medical equipment manufacturing sector.
German companies such as 3M and Hartmann have placed huge orders with us over the past 12 months. And don't worry we have been paid on time by each of these companies.
FYI 3M was once known as Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing with corporate offices in St. Paul Minnesota USA.
the new smallpox, only worse if it is/becomes airborn.
Cue panic selling out of Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, & French bonds....
even Bunds selling off a little here, this could get very messy unless the ECB puts a bid underneath these dogshit Bonds
NOT to worry...
“German industrial activity will soften in coming months as already indicated by business sentiment but not tumble into the abyss. And no, there is no reason to dig up the R-word again,” he said.
“To a large extent, today’s setback is a technical one which was not driven by a sudden deterioration in fundamentals. This can best be seen by looking at the massive drop in the auto sector. “
Mr Reeds said the decline of more than 25 per cent month-on-month in sector production - partly a result of the holiday factor - contributed 2.9 percentage points to the decrease of 4 per cent in the headline figure.
putin is a bully
he is not nice at all
he could be mentally ill like hair hilter in the bunker init.
putin must be forced to buy german goods now
he cannot be allowed to double dip into merkel
he must give cheap gas to all the countries who sanction him.
he must compensate hair merkel and the german races for killing so many germans during the war.
he must set up swiss bank accounts for the jewish rabbi for
for
for whatever reason
i will leave the reason space blank until i can think of a kosher one
burp
Must is a tough nut to crack!
Maybe the elite of Russia have a large percent of Jews that survived the Holocaust... so it is unfair to Sanction these same Jews... whether by USA or Germany... How can the Russian Jews suffer without compensation?
So set up a Swiss account for each of these Russian Jew Families living in Russia, so that they can continue to conduct business and trade. Perhaps the BIS will be an enthusiastic partner in this Scheme?
Most of the Russian jews have been shipped to Amerika and live on government handouts of $35K/year. Fact.
Well, there would be costs said Obama. Yeah, for zee Germans. And Germany demanding austerity measures in other European countries backfired on them. Perhaps it killed off the competition in the rest of Europe but it also killed people's purchasing power so less people buying German stuff.
Its time for the French Farmers to strike again....show the tractors damit....but just wait until Putin turns off the spigot for gas this winter...that will send a shiver down the Euros spine....
Strike? It will be another year for a harvest from which they could not profit from this year. And we doubt that things will be resolved by then. Always puttin the cart before the horse er ya, just wait for your foggy freeze to sense how it really feels to others.
Black swan ?
And people wonder why Germany wants to get back into the war biz again...probably represents 50% or more of US export growth.
The difference between germany and the US is germany's economic data is credible.
Let's see our budget is around 350 billion Euro your budget is 1.1 trillion. Our debts are 2 trillion yours are 17 trillons (give or take half a trillion)
So we'd need around 6 times our whole budget and oyu need it 16 times. So yes it seems the US is quite a little more messed up as we are, but do you find it credible? Or let me put it another way.
Assume you're earning 50 000 USD /year and your overall debts are 300 000 USD or in the case of the US around 800 000 USD. Now think you'd be a bank would you give any of them more credit? Without any securities? Well in my case the answer would be no. That can't possibly work.
You are using logic.
In the US you just yell 'rascism' or some such politically incorrect curse and demand more.
Balance sheet fixed.
Credible as in 'not made up'.
Our data is as reliable as our President...
The WW lousy "1984" society in decline. How tragical ...
It's just "noise". All will be fine per Mario.
Que night of the broken windows, her krugman
if you periferals stop buying our german goods we will leave the eurozone
Merkel
Remember what I said?
Here's again my 2014 GDP estimations made in Jan 2014:
ALL NEGATIVE
ALL DUE TO QE
USA, -4%
CANADA, -2%
EU, -6%
GERMANY, -2%
JAPAN, -5%
CHINA, -8%
WORLD, -5%
Well you hung it out there again.
Methodology in reducing official GDP numbers?
My pet peeve is always "Rentier" transactions and transactions that don't add value to the USA.
Clearly maybe - you see German GDP being dragged down by the Rest of the Euro Zone how ever we define that zone. Did you take out BS Banking/Financial GDP?
yes, of course
ekm, you included hookers n coke on the gdp ?
lol, no I didn't
ECB President Mario Draghi's last move towards more QE is no more than stupidity on steroids, even words like misdirected and boneheaded do it a disservice. This is more proof that the Euro-zone is in big trouble, both the union and the flawed currency is again begging to crumble.
One is forced to wonder if Japan and the Yen will crash first considering how each day Japan slides closer to the economic abyss or whether the Euro will lead the way into the wastebasket. Draghi has helped the countries of Europe kick the can down the road but this only delays the failure on the Euro. More on how the Euro-zone has failed to make any real reforms in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/euro-zone-and-draghi-both-mired-i...
People just need to take it back off the politicians
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11145381/Up-to-a-dozen-Ukraine-officials-dumped-in-wheelie-bins.html
They're going to have to bail them out.
And where are they going to get the money?
That's a good question!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnuAh3esdpE
jb
Octoberfest must be starting early in Germany - the Krauts are too drunk to make things!
and yet...still higher than 2013, and much higher than 2009
and yet...still higher than 2013, and much higher than 2009
The main problem of today's modern age is to increase labor productivity and the resulting overproduction. Overproduction creates a strong pressure on the labor market. Whereas, due to increasing labor productivity is sufficient to produce the same amount of work, fewer people, more and more people are becoming redundant. With increasing unemployment and then increases the pressure even on the remaining workers - must do more and at a lower salary because they can always be replaced by someone from the unemployed. It's a paradox, but labor productivity while reducing the living standards of workers.
Another problem is, when labor productivity solves artificial employment. The result of this solution is the overproduction of food (see fruit in the EU), overproduction of cars, electronics, unnecessary services sector (marketing, bureaucracy ...), waste of resources, energy, and raw materials consumed by unnecessary environmental burden. producers be able to sell excess production by using all sorts of unfair trading strategy (aggressive marketing, shortening product life, blending surplus sugar in all others products or excessive use as Coca-Cola, the introduction of scrappage schemes, the pursuit of export at any cost, ...)
Reduced working hours is a good step to solve all these problems. Reduce unnecessary production, will stop wasting resources while unemployment will fall, and thanks to the employees will have better negotiating position of their salaries. Paradoxically reduced working hours can lead to growth in staff salaries.
USA! USA!...The envy, of the WORLD!!
yeah, baby