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Germany’s Bad Numbers Are Great News For All Of Us
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
DPC St. Mary’s Canal parade, Sault Sainte Marie, MI 1905
Something’s happening in Europe that I would like to cheer and encourage at the top of my lungs. While only yesterday, most European leaders, the ECB and the IMF were busy chiding Germany for not lowering taxes or increasing government investment in its economy, today’s release of German economic data should either shut them up or drastically change their tune.
Then again, they are to a (wo)man too self-obsessed and -important to keep their traps closed, and they know only the one tune. That should lead to some serious bitterness, of which I’m also full-heartedly in favor. For everyone’s good but that of the self-absorbed politicians, the eurozone should be demolished, and entirely new, far more modest treaties between the nations negotiated.
If we can agree the single currency, and the legal settings it is caught in, have already done great damage to the over 50% of young people in Spain and Greece who may never find jobs at all, to the Italians and Irish who were keelhauled in the name of the greater good, and and and, and to all the millions in all the other eurozone member nations, if we can agree on that, things are going to get much worse if the euro project is not abandoned as soon as possible.
The good thing about Germany’s bad, make that awful, numbers is that they will raise the voices of euroskeptics across the country. If there is to be a change in view or politics from Angela Merkel and her people, it’s not going to be what the rest of Europe wants, a softer stance on Mario Draghi’s ABS junk paper purchases. Quite the opposite: Germans will increase their calls for Deutschland first, and Merkel can no longer ignore them.
Berlin will have to turn to protectionist policies, sort of like the antithesis the the entire European project that has seen so much support from these very Germans. Merkel cannot accept looser financial policies in Brussels, which carry the risk – bordering on certainty – that her taxpayers will be on the hook for losses incurred in the ECB’s last ditch attempts to save itself and the currency. Merkel’s – existing and potential – voters will not accept it.
That de facto means she must turn her back on Europe. It will not be advertized that way, at least not in the beginning, but it is what it all comes down to. Whether you agree or not that Germany’s own points of view and actions have contributed to the misery large parts of Europe are in, the fact remains they’re miserable and slip sliding into worse. Something needs to be done, but no-one can agree on what.
Draghi’s highly expensive and highly disputed buy buy buy plans can’t actually solve any problems, neither the ones countries already had nor those the euro straightjacket added. What the plans may do is buy a bit of time. Time that will be used to further tighten the euro noose around everyone’s neck.
Central banks can’t solve problems, but they sure can make them worse. This may sound strange when you look at what many see as a recovery in the US, but just wait a few more years and then look at what $10+ trillion has bought Americans, or $25 trillion has done for China.
In the end, it’s all just more debt piled on top of debt, and nothing but a huge blind spot in the range of vision of economists, edged on by those who seek to profit from a nation’s taxpayers being dragged down further towards servitude. That you could boost a broke economy be making it more broke, or even risk doing so, is insanity squared, but it’s also what every economics textbook says should be done.
In a few days, another fake Economic Nobel (Fauxbel) will be awarded to another clown or comic troupe with some utterly useless theory, their field lauded as a science without ever obeying even the most basic scientific principles. And some day people will ask: ‘what were they thinking?’, but they’ll have to ask their questions from cardboard shovels and corrugated shanty towns.
The fast rising right-of-Merkel Alternative for Deutschland party will grab onto today’s bad bad data (25% plunge in new car sales, 8.8% less capital goods (machinery etc.) produced, factory orders down 5.7%, overall industrial production down 4% MoM) to demand protection for Germans, and less, not more, Berlin involvement in the EU and eurozone.
At the – well, ok, arguably – worst point in euro history, with all other ‘solutions’ failed and debt levels higher than ever, Mario Draghi wants to raise those levels even more. Merkel doesn’t have the political room to allow him to, because she doesn’t have the economic room anymore. As soon as she announces some, any, cut in domestic services, the AfD and other voices will clamor: cut the Greeks first.
France is gasping for breath, Italy is on life support, Greece, Cyprus and Spain are in the emergency room, and Europe’s German engine has just quit. A 500+ million ‘union’ with no steering wheel and no engine is on its way to the brink of a deep cliff. Someone’s going to jump ship, no question about it. The Germans themselves might be the first.
Nobody in Europe has anything to lose from the demise of the eurozone, at least nothing that they wouldn’t lose anyway, but every single European save for a cabal of power brokers and narcissists has a ton and a half of happiness and self-fulfillment and independence to lose from the continuation of the failed project. Luckily for them, the German data promise to bring the merciful end that much closer.
What’s wrong with the EU is the same as what’s wrong with NATO, the IMF, the World Bank. They are institutions that start with noble ideals, but soon start to gobble up ever more power, and with no-one to hold them to account. That kind of structure in turn attracts a certain kind of people, the ones who don’t like to be held to account.
And though I’m a little hesitant to include the US in all this, since it”s so much older, I certainly wouldn’t discard Washington offhand as a place where the wrong kind of people have gathered far too much power.
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Mein Fuhrer Merkel!!!
Hopefully, the coming Convention of the States will deal with the "wrong people" in Washington, D.C.
Germans are no-bullshit kind of people.
They actually have the capacity to do the right thing.
throw off the central banker chains... would love to see germany turn against them. would be fitting given all they have done to try and destroy the german people, failing at it I might add.
"They actually have the capacity to do the right thing"
Perhaps..., but history has shown, on more than one occasion, where they have a tendency to destroy themselves.
Just saying...
(full disclosure... I am 1/4 german)
Germans need to stfu and bail out Greece. /sarc
Who funded germans during ww2 and who funded Ferdinand during the first great war? hmmmm....
The US was responsible for the outcome and consequences of WWI.
US ruined the 20th century, now it's ruining the 21st century.
Also eventually stuffed up the post WW2 settlement by decoupling the Dollar in 1974. Needed to create more debt for more war.
"Perhaps..., but history has shown, on more than one occasion, where they have a tendency to destroy themselves.
Just saying..."
You are damn right! full disclosure: i'm 4/4 german :(
Actually, what you say is true....Germans have always been no nonsense people & will approach any problem with realism.
The current system is so messed up there's no exit. The question is what to do.....
Thanks for the wel intended flowers. But to makt it short: Forget it. You can have this equation Germans = believe in the "wise" state or even worth some "leader". See how it has killed 60 Million people. Quite bad for such a small country, the sowjet union just may be a little above that....
Fein, Merkel.
Mein Ferkel.
Germany's sales to Russia have plunged. And China and other nations will be busy replacing Germany's exports to Russia. A large, lucrative market is being rapidly lost by Germany even as the yen weakens and China's manufacturing prowess grows. But as an occupied country, Germany has no choice but to obey America's orders. Besides, Merkel has been completely compromised by NSA spying on her since 2002. The fate of slaves is decided by their masters.
Merkel is doing exactly what she is told. We will see how this gets cleaned up after they already sold the broom.
If Merkel will no longer ignore them, then the Germans will vote in someone who can.
Bitch needs to get her fucking gold back from the tribe.
That's what happens when you sign up for the job of 'bankster toady and bootlicker'.
Putin builds new bullet train routes.
French Alstom, which had had very good chances, received a letter that it can't participate. German Siemens received a similar letter.
China Railway Corp is going to receive the contract.
We'll be calling it BRICS-G soon.
Better to be a good player on the winning team than a great player on the losing team for the next 100 years.
BRIGCS ?
More likely that Germany will split on old East-West lines .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/05/belarus-and-european-instability.html
lol thats hilarious.
I almost spit my morning coffee up.
I think its likely you'll see Germany ENLARGE if Putin becomes more agressive and the Flanders independence vote gets it.
Too damn sensible to be ignored for long.
Return to Nation-alism!
I believe the German people simply lack sufficient "breathing space" :-)
I don't know if people remember but you were a crybaby with the Twinks and it is nationalism - one word.
Putin's been quiet lately. Too quiet.
Just sayin'. He sees what we're seeing. There's a reason he's chilling out and it's not because he's done.
He haven't got free time to talk.he is too busy. You know, he want to save the world from world war 3.
He is waiting on cold weather. He has won.
I think you way be right.
Why fight an enemy that is destroying itself. Better to just wait.
And to think ALL this bad EU news is spoiling
Vladdie Putin's birthday. Too Sad
This article assumes that a politician might actually do the right thing.
Uh...... we need a convention of the AR-15,
Black Friday and hey NSA fuck you too!
Time to pour a drinky, late!
Bounce,Bounce,Bounce!
Americans are ready by the the thousands to die on the eastern front
merkel nearin' the end of her run anyway, can' t believe her party's long knives won't come out soon and demanding end of occupation and euro exit.
Will the Merkel Hund bite her master Obama's hand?
they are institutions that start with noble ideals, but soon start to gobble up ever more power, and with no-one to hold them to account.
haha good joke. they were started under false noble ideas meant to trick an idiot populace into accepting wildly oppressive and parasitic institutions.
Hey Germany. I know what needs to be done.
Fuck the Globalists.
Germans need to defect from this system of mercantilism as the other European countries are not providing goods and services in return for quality German products. Vendor financing becomes a disaster for everybody involved.
They are institutions that start with noble ideals, but soon start to gobble up ever more power, and with no-one to hold them to account. That kind of structure in turn attracts a certain kind of people, the ones who don’t like to be held to account.
I think he is referring the the majority of well intentioned sheep who supported these things believing they really would make things better, not the psychopaths behind the designs.
Anarchism is the only way forward for humanity.
Government is the biggest problem on earth.
Anarchism is the only way forward for humanity. agreed. But getting there might destroy most of humanity in the process.
An anarchist is hardly any better than a statist because they too desire to force their beliefs on all others. The solution is the freedom to choose for each person.
Freedom of religion AND freedom of government.
You do realize that freedom of and freedom from are different? You just ruled out anarchism.
Personally, I believe anarchism is nothing more than a pipe dream. If two people can't get along they might fight. If one realizes he can't win he'll get help, call it a government, and enforce his will that way. It will always happen. Anarchism is impossible.
You obviously know little of history. Take a quick look at they anarchism Wikipedia page for many examples of anarchistic societies. Your personal belief is false, unfortunately .gov spends all it's time and propaganda making you think you need them. If your smart enough to read ZH be smart enough not to fall for it.
I'm for voluntaryism.
If some people wish to live under the yoke of government, that's their choice.
I want no part of it.
The control freaks also conjured up numerous disastrous outcomes for the ending of slavery or allowing freedom of religion.
Pleased to meet you, Mr. control freak.
Anarchism opposes ALL hierarchy, not just governments.
There are plenty of "anarcho-capitalists" around ZH who focus only upon opposing the State and any perception of Socialism. It's a mistake to take any cues from these people with regard to anarchist ideology as anarchists strongly reject "anarcho-capitalism" as the oxymoron that it is and Rothbard as the moron that he was.
Comprehensive smackdown here: http://www.infoshop.org/AnarchistFAQSectionF
(And no, I do not consider myself an Anarchist, though I broadly agree with most of it, I just don't find it very pragmatic. We are genetically hard-wired for combat and to assemble into hierarchies out of combat necessity).
"We are genetically hard-wired for combat and to assemble into hierarchies out of combat necessity)."
Certainly, and we were hard-wired for even more savagery in the past.
That doesn't mean it should be accepted or supported in any way.
More protectionism for Germany because of bad economic figures??! This is priceless. Germany is running a 7% current account suplus..
But I'll guess that's not big enough (although the bad economic figures probably have depressed imports considerably, so it might come in even higher)..
Could it just be that by running such an enormous trade surplus and the forced diet of austerity has squeezed the life out of the eurozone periphery which is no leading Germany to fall on its own sword?
Why aren't we hearing on Zero Hedge about the Ruble's continued fall against the Dollar and Russia spending almost 2 billion dollars in two days to defend it (currently at 40 Rubles/Dollar)?
We're not hearing it because it doesn't fit the Zero Hedge narrative of an ideal, all-powerful Putin.
Now, were the dollar to fall into the toilet, we'd hear about that post-haste in every other article on the site.
Tsk tsk....
You have a very good point. However I believe Russia has enough dollars on hand to make it to winter, at a billion a day. Winter's coming and Russia has the gas. China also has a few dollar based "assets" and they probably won't blink an eye at helping Russia stay afloat if it becomes necessary.
Then we'll be able to see $2,000 Ladas and Nivas.
And German cars will be exceptionally expensive in Russia.
That's how Chinese products have occupied the American market.
Somebody wake GHW Bush from his coma and let him know his scumbag deviate dream of a NWO only resulted in the deaths of millions of people and that he will be remembered in history along with Hitler and Mussolini. Don't let him get away.
After watching a few documentaries yesterday, it seems interesting to note how differently history might have been written if Germany had won the war. The zionists (not jews) and their banking arm would have been blamed for the subjegation of Russia and most of Europe and Hitler would have been heralded as a savior of the world from the zionist disease.
... but the zionists put pressure on Roosevelt and found a way to get the US into the war... through lies.
It probably would have been much better for the world if the murdering psychopath Stalin had fallen.
Yeah but the sad part is the "zionists" would have gotten away and the Jews would be dead. This isn't about zionism. These people come from all walks of life and they have but one ambition - control by tyrannical means.
Let us not discriminate. All the criminals need to be prosecuted and executed.
None of those institutions have or had noble ideals.
Germany will not be the one to break the €. While being in the € zone may be bad for the other countries, it will be worse when they leave it. The only country to benefit by leaving the € will be Germany. But if Germany leaves the €, the € itself will sink like a rock and Germany will be blamed for the collapse by the rest. Germany cannot afford anti-German feelings being whipped up in the rest of EU. So they are stuck in the EU and € until the two projects collapse on their own.
You forgot one small world Maybe Germany will......
Based on the arguments in your comment I do not see any reason, why should be Germany the first one, or the last one.
The fact is, that if they walk away, then Euro is dead next day, wether they will be the first ones, or not.
This is their advantage, as they decide when. The others can only follow.
Germany won't walk away. When the others walk away (probably en masse), they will be the only one "in". At that point whether they want to call the currency Euro or Mark is of little signficance. Regardless of who initiates the break up, Germany or the rest, the rest of € zone will face huge financial and social turmoil. If Germany initiates it, they will become the target of the anger in the rest of € zone. They don't need it. They know that sooner or later the pressure on the weaker € zone countries to leave the € will be too great for their politicans to ignore. When they do, they will find it hard to blame Germany for the ensuing financial and social turmoil.
The domestic decrease in the car sales is O.K. What is funny, is the decrease in the manufacturing activity, showing the effect of canctioning Russia and the effects of QE in US and a dead cat-Japan.
The GDP, which grew only on borrowing, but they have to pay the interests and coupon of Bundesanleihen anyhow. The burden of 5 Mil of excessive biomass from Africa and Assia, everyone getting 1000 dollars a month.
It will be warm in Europe soon, and they do not need the russian gas to make it quite hot.
"A little hesitant to include the US in all this"? - Are you fucking kidding?!?!? Wall Street and London are at the centre of it!
A South German friend told me at the weekend that the real Euroskeptics are few & far between & that their rise is merely a protest vote. Regardless of them dragging the rest of us along, including throwing money at Greece, the Germans are still in the very-large majority pro-Europe & pro-Euro so any real talk of the Germans getting fed up is a long long way away.
DOuble Post
slowdown in germany means that germany has already sucked out all the money from peripheral europe and now it can leave the eurozone (nothing left to suck out, the EU project has achieved its goal and can be abandoned)
if there was any logic in this article, I could somehow refute it. but there isn't
at the end, it's just neo-keynesian "logic", i.e. that creeping default by devaluation of currency does not hurt anybody
so Germans produce good products, export some of them - roughly half to the other european countries and half to the rest of the world...
... and the author suggests that those who don't match those imports with something of value are being buggered by the Germans, unless they inflate their currency, and so have rising prices, which then buggers their savers and workers
when I started posting here on ZH this place was full of Austrian Schools economics proponents. where are they now?
how can you expect Germany, of all countries, to turn on a dime and adopt protectionist policies? imo pure projection, it's importers that usually adopt such policies
a pity, so many articles about Europe from people that have so little knowledge about it. it's all over those articles, in things like "Merkel cannot accept looser financial policies in Brussels". It's not financial policies, it's monetary policies. And it's not Brussels, it's Frankfurt, where the HQ of the ECB is. And if the author really thought about financial policies in the sense of fiscal policies, then it's still Berlin, not Brussels
except that Brussels monitors countries which made a pact (a treaty) among themselves not to overspend. which they could renounce, just with a simple vote in parliament. though they would have some issues to explain that to their own electorates, which is the reason why they don't, and would prefer to somehow "muddle through" the issue. and yet it's still about national "financial" policies, but not in Brussels but in - specifically, at the moment - Rome and Paris
all indications of a fervent wish from some of our American Cousins that european countries somehow adopt the same policies. nothing new about that. best seen in the usual, tired and completely wrong way of comparing Washington with Brussels
in short, this article is pure rubbish, and reminds me similar ones about other exporters like China and Japan, all "doomed because producing and exporting". I repeat, it would make more sense if it postulated that the other countries would shut Germany out
The Logic is that the author doesn't like the EU, and does like money printing.
The rest is just an attempt to marry the two concepts under the backwards presumption that Germany would be printing money if only it were not part of the EU.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
What a rubbish article. But then again Tyler was always kinda falling for this disinformation himself.
Why do European nations need treaties to trade? Do I need a treaty for every store I walk into? It doesn't take a massive bureaucracy to convert currencies.
if by trade you mean completely unregulated free trade, then you are completely correct, there is no need for a treaty at all
but many european countries prefer to ban GMO food, which translates in not to import GMO food, for example. and many countries have lobbyists finding many ways to have protectionist policies, and some of them are quite devious. I remember when Japan and some European countries were bitching about what kind of motorbycicles are allowed, where
the mighty American Car industry was a big champion of finding ways to shut out foreign cars, in the past
I, for example, was against imports of those Chinese toys that were, frankly, completely toxic, thanks to the way they were painted. not an issue anymore, but also thanks to the import ban
at the end, a lot of the "good part" of it has to do with culture and consumer protection
continental europeans expect their agencies to protect them more from "bad" products and offers - Americans and Brits expect them to be less active in this field, generally speaking
even though we still have the small butchers - something that was nearly regulated away by the US "Big Meat" and we still allow raw milk products, something that was regulated away by the US "Big Milk", in America
caveat emptor - the question is "how much", and the answer differs from country to country - or do you deny sovereign country's right to make their own laws about what products and services are allowed in their territories?
(nope, there isn't a big bureaucracy to convert currencies. in fact, there isn't even a big bureaucracy for trade, not in the EU)
You just it illegal for any vendor to sell GMO food.
That switches the onus on them to ensure their sources are GMO free.
No treaty needed.
GREAT GREAT paper. Let's kick Germany out of the Euro!!
Kredit Anstalt
Kredit Anstalt
Kredit Anstalt
Get it?
Germany has always been German first. Your article is a bit silly. Germany and Merkel has the sole stumbling block to solving the european economic problem from day 1, its only when they start tasting a bit of their own idiotic toxic medicine that they will allow draghi to do his job.
Germany has always been German first. Your article is a bit silly. Germany and Merkel has the sole stumbling block to solving the european economic problem from day 1, its only when they start tasting a bit of their own idiotic toxic medicine that they will allow draghi to do his job.
As an American living permanently in Europe, perhaps my view of the world varies from that of most Americans. The GOAL of any country's policies should be "SELF-INTEREST" of its people.
Let's hope that GERMANY wakes up soon.
It should:
1.) Oust Angela Merkel
2.) Leave NATO
3.) Get rid of all sanctions against Russia
4.) Encourage a partition of Ukraine (east and south versus north and west)
5.) Get out of the EU and drop the Euro as its currency. (Many EU nations will soon follow if Germany takes the lead.)
6.) Divorce itself from the U.S. government's INSANE foreign policies
7.) Form "economic alliances" with Russia, China and the other BRICS - eventually leading to the "de-dollarization" of international trade among all nations - pehaps a new gold-backed currency (with a provision for immediate payment in gold, if demanded).
8.) I would add the "return of all of Germany's gold bullion" from the New York Federal Reserve, BUT we all know gold was long ago sold or leased out. In short, Germany will NEVER receive that gold -- maybe it can receive payment in corn flakes . . . ???? ;-) ;-)
that's a good one, with clear demands
1) entails either the CDU ousting Merkel or the CDU changing it's views. except that they are shared by the whole German poliical spectrum, with two small partial exceptions. Remember that Merkel is only the expression of the elected German parliament's majority coalition
2) entails getting Germany completely surrounded by NATO countries, including France and Poland! I thinks Germans would get some nightmares from that
3) entails convincing some other countries about that, including the whole eastern european part, where Russia is seen quite differently. Again, Poland?
4) hohoho, Germany partitioning other countries. Like other partitions, including the German and the Polish one? Nightmares again, including for the whole east of the EU
5) how many Germans want that? What is in, for Germany? More price stability? A harder currency? Or just a DEM that has to peg itself to the EUR, like the CHF? Did you note that we are in the middle of a currency war?
6) Why do you not propose all european countries to divorce from NATO? That would be easier, wouldn't it? At least from the defense perspective
7) This just shows that you have something against the US, doesn't it? Question is, why do you demand action from... foreigners? You claim to be American. Why don't you demand different American policies?
8) well, the German demand is there. It's just not being followed up. Do you ask for German warships showing up in NY and ask immediate loading of NY-FED gold? Like France did, once?
in short, you are asking foreign allies to beat some sense in your country. you are asking for partitions of foreign, sovereign countries, for your hosts to change their military, monetary and other policies so that your country changes. Shouln't you propose some change in your country first?
The NSA clearly has the dirt on Merkel, I suspect it goes back to her days as a Gaulieter in the DDR.
To do the right thing for Germany would probably result in personal self destruction to one degree or other.
Well said. +100, apart from the partitioning of Ukrains which is none of Germany's business and would evoke some unpleasnat memories.
are you thinking about Poland's partitions, or the very German partition into West Germany and East Germany? Unpleasant is quite an euphemism, in this case
West Ukraine is Poland annexed in 1945.
Belarus is Poland annexed in 1945
Western Poland is Germany annexed in 1945
Eastern Ukraine is Russian territory historically
Do you have any idea of European geo-politics ?
Nice dreams, but surely just dreams. If the EU will go down. Germany will probably will be last country standing. Our stupidness to follow "leaders" has hardly any competition. All you write are good suggestions, but good suggestions will not help in these stupid and crazy EU days/weeks/years/decades.
The right thing for ANY country would be. Leave all supranational organisations. Abolish any central bank, go back to money instead of debt and cut down on government very harshly (that means 90 % of governments things should be gone).
It will not happen here in Germany, for that our debt load still seems way to bearable and the German Nibelungentreue is unparralleled. So I guess it will need the killing of way beyond 10 % of the population before Germans might thing to stand up against their government.
As writen your suggestions are (unfortunatly) just dreams.
"The GOAL of any country's policies should be "SELF-INTEREST" of its people."
Whereas the political elites of most countries persue their own self interests and to hell with their people.
"1.) Oust Angela Merkel"
I agree with your other actions for Germany but not necessarily this one. I thnk she's good for Germany given the fact she doesn't have personal control of policy.
Angela Merkel is _very_ pro EU (and EUR-zone), is immensely popular at a personal level, and has only recently won an election. So there is no near-term prospect of Germany leaving the either the EU, or even just the EUR-zone.
I agree that if (for whatever reason) Germany left the EUR-zone, the rest of the EUR-zone collapses immediately. The association with the Bundesbank is the only thing that gives the ECB/EUR-zone any credibility. If Germany leaves it probably gets a recession (but no serious social change), however the disruprtion following a German exit means that Spain, Greece and possibly Portugal get military governments (no money for fuel or imported food) and the return of their old curriencies.
But, as I said, no near-term chance of Germany initiating this process.
If you want a near-term cause for the collapse of the EUR-zone (and possibly the EU as a whole), look at _France_.
Too big for Germany to rescue, and anyway the French hard left might want a return to the Franc in the misguided belief that it will remove the need for extensive reform.
Watson
Angela Merkel is possibly one of the least pro-EU and pro-EUR members of the current German government, of the current elected German parliament and of the current political parties represented there
fact is that Germans are in general pro-EU and pro-EUR. Even the fabled "Alternative für Deutschland" party is skeptically yet still pro-EU, and is dropping a bit the thing about being strongly anti-EUR... because there aren't any votes, there
ask House-Thurgaryen how he is treated in Germany when he talks to Germans about the EU and the EUR. they look at him like he was making a Hitler parody... in earnest
Germans are in the main passively brainwashed into thinking it is safer not to stick your head above the parapet for fear the Anglo-Saxons will chop it off.
Germany has had a good ride on physical exports but stop thinking it is all machinery - it is agricultural products, women's clothes, brushes, slippers, and very basic stuff noone wants to make in US/UK. Remember Gregory Peck in Other People's Money as the unlikely owner of a wiremaking business - too mundane for Americans - but just the kind of thing Germans do in Slovakia.
Germany adds a premium label to goods made in Poland or Croatia or Slovakia - the goods are not even made in Germany.
Russia is the key market. Merkel and Schauble are a double-act of FAILURE and have de-railed Germany because they have no policy which does not submerge itself in a Euro/NATO wrapper. They have third-rate Armed Forces and crap equipment because they look to the USA......the last decent army Germany had was the Wehrmacht - this Bundeswehr is too Dutch.
It is because noone thinks of Germany having identities ther than in coalition but they have committed the same mess Wilhelm II did when he dumped Bismarck's alliance with Russia in 1890
Sandmann, the "fear of the Anglo-Saxon's reaction" is one thing. imho the smaller part
yet the Danes, the Dutch, the Swedish, the Belgians, the French, the Luxembourgers, the Italians, the Austrians, the Czechs, the Poles... just to name the most pro-German and nearest others... all ask from Germany the very same thing that Germans ask from their government: never alone again
it's that simple, actually. Remember Polish Foreign Minister Sikorsky asking more leadership from Germany? Germany is allowed to lead... from behind. German ministers are allowed, actually encouraged to make first proposals... after consultation with at least one or two other countries. Germany is free and often leading... as long as it's not alone in it
call it co-leadership, or whatever, Germany is integral, is respected and get's it's way... but always after respecting the niceties resulting from it's history
Russia is at the moment an issue tackled by Poland, first, representing strong Eastern European views, which are already difficult for Western Continental Europeans to understand. As soon as the Eastern Europeans have calmed themselves, Germany will, imho, again lead into a solution... after consultation (Americans permitting)
sorry, my prejudice is that the "Anglo-Saxon Mind" is heavely influenced by top-down "hegemonistic" principles... which don't apply in the modern continental context, where all sovereigns are supposed to be treated as peers... and our electorates and political elites actually demand it
so yes, coalition it is. hanging together instead of being hung separately
What do people think about the possibility that the EUR-zone will fail because of a French exit, following French problems that are too large for Germany to bail out?
Watson
a French exit is a completely different thing, way more likely then a German exit, though because of French politics, not finances. because as such, France is financially a nexus, owing as much as it is owed, particularly if you look at the French banking system
and yet this would entail Marine Le Pen capturing the majority of vote for the French parliament, which again is highly unlikely, though not impossible
Let me throw out an alternative scenario touted by some :
1° US economy and USD monetary line goes into tail spin for whatever reason : debt, petrodollar collapse, FED non-credibility etc. etc. (The arguments for a financial implosion with an unsustainable risk market are multiple).
2° The world NEEDS a reserve currency to fill the vacuum. The World community asks the IMF to issue UNLIMITED SDRs (based on a basket of currencies of its members) to save the world from monetary collapse. (Apparently the IMF balance sheet is not highly leveraged like FED/ECB/BOJ/BOE).
Could the world survive in such a situation?
Could we prevent WW3 and/or great depression over 25 years (It'll take a generation to clean up this mess in the $ denominated economy)?
Obviously the world Bourses would know a reset back to 30-50% of current levels.
Then what? Can Eurozone/Bric/EM survive the dollar collapse and collateral damage to US and surrogate economies ?
It is obvious to me that if such a scenario of integrated collapse develops, Mutti will be sucked into giving ECB all powers to print, hoping that Eurozone will be able to pull parts of the world economy from the global sink.
And the sanctions against Putin help.