IMF Comedy Hour: The Complete History Of The IMF's Growth "Forecasts" Since 2012

Tyler Durden's picture

It's that time in the quarter again when the IMF releases its latest comedy hour script, also known as its World Economic Forecast, this time for October, "predicting" what growth in various countries and around the globe, as well as trade will look like for the next two years. We have repeatedly covered why this is one of the most hilarious periodic debacles of conventional economics as the one thing the IMF is sure to get right is that it will be wrong about everything (but it sure won't stop trying, for example we are confident the IMF's projection of 2022 Greek GDP is still "spot on"), so we won't waste more time on the preamble.

So without further ado, here is the complete history of the IMF's quarterly forecast revisions of growth since 2012, in charts.

First, the good news, if only for now: the United States, which is the only country to see its 2015 GDP forecast increase, or rather hockeystick, from 2.2% to 3.1%. Good luck with that, considering the end of QE and the whole soaring USD thing.

 

However, any optimism about the US is promptly crushed by the ongoing economic destruction that is taking place in Europe. And while the 2015 GDP forecast was cut to the lowest in the series, from 1.5% to 1.3%, considering Europe is now unofficially in a triple-dip recession, look for the 2015 print to quickly go negative over the next 1-2 IMF WEO releases.

 

Then there is China, which curiously, this time was left unchanged across the entire curve. We doubt it will remain there when forecast becomes history, even though this is the one country where the IMF no longer believes in the hockeystick.

 

And then here is "the world", which was supposed to grow by 4.1% in 2013. Instead, the 2015 forecast was just cut from 4.0% to 3.8%. And that, of course, includes a hockeystick from 2014, which back in 2013 was supposed to grow by 4.1% and is now the lowest it has been at 3.3%. In fact, spot the trend foe 2012, 2013 and 2014 global GDP forecasts: 3.4%, 3.3%, 3.3%.

 

And most disturbing of all, and the chart which will as usual be ignored as much as possible because central banks can not print trade, is the IMF's ever deteriorating outlook for global trade. It was supposed to rise 5.5% two years ago. Now it just hit cycle lows of a meager 3.8%, and certainly going far lower.

 

Finally, the IMF's most favoritest chart:

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ShrNfr's picture

Mann oh Mann, what a schtick.

tempo's picture

Only headlines count in GDP and job growth. No one care that millions cant qualify of unemployment benefits because fewer work full time. No one care the 4/5 jobs are low pay, part time jobs. So when a part time job is eliminated and the a month later created the headlines show only that 200,000 jobs created each month. Many are the same job over and over.

flacon's picture

Pretty accurate.... for a pH Dee in economics. 

auntiesocial's picture

I would like to introduce another index- The Cologne Index

When the economy was good, I would buy 6 colognes a year lets say on average. NOW I haven't bought cologne in over 3 years and I am STILL using the same cologne. 

Until I start buying 6 bottles a year again- THE REAL ECONOMY IS IN THE TOILET!

Postal's picture

That's what she said...

lasvegaspersona's picture

ahhh...and what team does she play for?

Sudden Debt's picture

I'd like to see the salary of the guy who makes those graphs...

 

disabledvet's picture

"Just unplug the damn thing"...Erdogan confronts the internet.

"How about a nice game of Chess Czar Poopie?"

BrosephStiglitz's picture

Utter assclown.  I think his graph is upside down?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Hope springs eternal.......along with the manipulation of public perception.

<Either create your own reality or live in someone else's.>

Dexter Morgan's picture

Warren Zevon - Hit Somebody ( The Hockey Song) - David Letterman Show, 2002 (HD)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufEtQcisrgg

Jack Sheet's picture

Of at least similar moment, bum bandits and dildo divas in Indiana, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin have been vindicated by the US supreme court and can enter holy wedlock:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/07/us/denying-review-justices-clear-way-f...

 

PT's picture

Twice as much work now available for marriage celebrants and divorce lawyers.

And think twice before sharing a house with anyone.  They may decide to claim de-facto status ...

IronShield's picture

Just a bunch of PowerPoint jockeys; providing nothing of substance, building nothing.  Where have I seen that before?

Hint: Everywhere, private and public.

q99x2's picture

If they are the main institution used as a financial weapon to take over the world in a nuclear age then they have done fairly well.

ghostzapper's picture

Hey I'm ready let's drop the puck!  Boston Bruins hockey tees off Wednesday night on NBCSN but I'm hoping I can watch on NESN. 

junction's picture

It is water under the bridge but why have no news media covered the bizarre circumstances surrounding the arrest of former IMF boss Dominique Strauss-Kahn?  The Criminal Court Judge who handled his arrest, Melissa Jackson, was an incompetent Bronx assistant district attorney when Mayor Bloomberg got her appointed to the bench.  Was she scheduled to handle arraignments when DSK arrived in court?  Well, no reporter asked that question.  DSK was classified as a flight risk, yet when he called the Sofitel hotel to ask about his  Blackberry, which he left in his room, the manager did not tell him the police were there.  Police commissioner Ray Kelly and New York county DA Cyrus Vance had orders to let DSK board his plane before arresting him.  The DA said the Sofitel had no CCTV cameras anywhere in the hotel.  No cameras in the elevators or lobby?  Anyone believe that?  The Malian housekeeper, working on her scheduled day off at her request, immediately called her drug dealer boyfriend after her encounter with DSK, to the Arizina prison he was staying in for drug dealing.  The evidence shows the entire DSK sexual encounter was a trap set up to get Christine Lagarde in to head the IMF.  The corrupt Christine Lagarde, whom Bernard Tapie paid off to win a French law case that made Tapie some $300 million.  The corrupt DSK arrest shows that Bloomberg, Kelly. Vance and Lagarde were the real criminals who should have been stopped and frisked.

Anglo Hondo's picture

Frisking Lagarde would be a cruel and unusual punishment - for the frisker.

jaxville's picture

  HMMMM......  Are you referring to the same DSK who, as French finance minister; stole students' insurance funds?  The same guy perhaps who faced numerous other allegations of "sexual misconduct". Something that when it involves a Goyim is usually referred to as "rape".  The guy is a waste of skin, like his predecessor.

   Every time an asshole like that gets caught, we hear of how he or she was about to save the world and had to be stopped. World bank, IMF, BIS etc are the gatekeepers of our credit based money system and thus the exclusive preserve of such filth. 

falak pema's picture

My neighbour who is going on to reach 50 has tits made by the IMF! 

They get better by the day!

Maybe there's hope for Lady Lagarde. She will get her bonus one day, as all who live/work in DC, like that frenchy director at WB.

 

Dubaibanker's picture

The world is going through massive demand destruction which no supply side adjustment can support, regardless of weak currencies or ever cheapening prices.

Demand destruction started in US in 2008 into car, real estate and banking sector then spread worldwide by 2009 in those 3 sectors. QE and car subsidies helped for a while but then the malaise spread worldwide to Latin America where banks and real estate have not exploded but debt and currencies have depreciated regardless but Venezuelas of the world and Iran and Pakistan and Ukraine and Syria and Iraq etc complete the problems. Japan and entire EU have remained stagnant and in cases of PIIGS have also declined both in GDP as well as population causing massive permanent domestic demand destruction. India has always been a basket case so does not help anyone but because everyone else is in trouble, hence the money flows have declined thus aggravating India's problems as well as its exports which have always saved India in the past. Australia and most of Asia and Canada have been doing just fine with some rare hiccups. Less said the better about Japan where their ageing population just like Europe's is and will cause them slowdowns until they default or break up or whatever happens to them! Simply printing money without being supported by immigration or innovation etc will not take give them any legs to stand upon. US is better simply because it is more innovative and has positive immigration trends supported by higher FDI flows.

The only saving grace has been China which has been buying all commodities, precious and otherwise, cars, building infra and homes, buying all sort of assets worldwide from refineries to car companies, to hotels and real estate to whatever they can lay their hands on like IBM and Motorola etc.

China has compensated for some demand but the rest of the world has been dithering slowly.

Stocks can only go down if the money in the hands of pension funds, mutual funds and individuals somehow evaporates over night! Which IMHO seems unlikely hence there will always be some inherent demand for stocks and bonds (especially due to massive stock buy backs, lack of capex spending, major cash on balance sheets due to bonds, severe cost cutting due to massive lay offs etc). Hedge funds and Private equity will keep dying due to higher risk reward ratios, over leveraging, lack of insights to protect ultimate investor moneys etc and mostly because basic fundamentals of investing have broken down due to artificial insemination of liquidity in the financial markets by the function of 'lender of last resort' by all Central Banks. The fun will only begin, not when they stop injecting, but when they start withdrawing! Interest rates are not going anywhere in a hurry, purely because the impact on QE injected debt running into trillions will rise even further if interest rates rise that is why ever since 2010 we have heard that rates will rise 'next year' just like a boogeyman who is supposed to arrive but never does!

No one knows the future, least of all I, but I can attempt to present my thoughts which may make some sense.

jaxville's picture

Dubai Banker ..... Good observations but you are missing the point that the money which is flooding the markets was created by being loaned into existence.  Consequently there is far more more debt that has the potential to drain the economy at large should those who owe perceive higher rates in the future. That is why keeping rates down is "job 1" for the paper pushers.  At some point the market will dictate that people who hold cash in the system will need to be rewarded for the huge risk they are taking by doing so.

  I suspect interest rates will move up on the back of some sort of bail in or IMF mandated wealth tax.  Both are designed to protect institutions at the expense of their creditors (depositors).  Policies as such reflect the inherent weakness many of the largest financial institutions.

 

  On demand destruction...... I left Harley Davidson in 2003.  When I started with them, about a quarter of new bikes were financed through HD or an affiliate lender.  By the time I left over 85% of new bikes were financed in house.  One of the last bikes I sold was to an individual who was twice bankrupted and yet our business manager got him financed.  I gave my notice the next day.  I saved for years to buy my first Harley and I came to understand that the huge growth in sales in those years was the result of little more than extending credit to essentially anyone. 

  Demand is now as artificial as gold prices or Libor. 

 

Dubaibanker's picture

Valid points. And thanks for your comment.

Holding cash never pays anyone even as deposits. The risk was at its peak 2007 onwards when everything collapsed and yet rates (manipulated or not) kept declining and have done so until date. That is why I said that higher rates will hurt the lenders more than they will profit the borrower. Fed, BOJ, ECB are the biggest lenders and we all are borrowers in one way. The fact that money stops withing the balance sheets of all major banks to reduce their gaps and losses while loss making or state subsidised entities like Fannie and Freddie or AIG also works against us.

Logically what you say in the second para makes sense. But there is no fundamental logic or functioning formula that has worked in the past 7 years anyways. Once we start lending to each other directly such as when bonds are issued by companies or crowd funding or micro finance is done or private lending is done, in that area, rates will be set higher but then margins must be higher in respective businesses else these collaborations too will fail and go bankrupt. This is where demand destruction comes in, people are unable to make money in restaurants or wholesaling products or even manufacturing shirts or supermarkets etc because the big are getting bigger by doing higher volumes at lower margins but are somehow able to survive. Out of say the Top 10 companies, always the bottom few who cannot sustain on low margins shall fail. 8 companies will still be around until 2 more fail and so on after a few years. This is how efficient markets function but with the artifical insemination, all semblance of normal has been broken. and instead of 2 closures, we nowadays have a new normal of 7 closures!

You have a point on Harleys, but I was not referring to Harleys as demand destruction. Luxury items meant for the rich who can afford a 100k bike is not reality. It has always been small and will always be a small market.

Lets talk of farmers in Spain or in India. Real estate developers in US or Greece. Ship manufacturers in Brazil or Korea. Fishing comapnies in Norway or Sweden. Gold producers in S. Africa or Canada. Airlines in India or EU. Banks in Cyprus or Portugal....

We have literally seen an implosion across various sectors as described in the above para and many companies have failed due to Russian sanctions and their retaliations, over leveraging, lack of demand mostly in shipping, airlines, supermarkets, clothing, real estate, steel and car sector etc.

Demand can be created by low rates or sub prime lending in only limited scenarios. Export funding subsidies in US etc are in trouble because the benefits do not outweigh the actual spend any longer due to high debt on Govt balance sheets which is causing export subsidies on ships and Boeing planes to be reduced or ended.

Basic food items, clothing and medicines will also have demand destruction unless prices and hence margins are brought down. We recently saw a good example whereby Gilead Sciences is selling a dosage of Hepatitis in US at USD 80k but in India and Africa at 99% discount! This needs to happen if efficient markets play out.

However, this is a very complicated dynamic and sales cannot keep pace with artificial insemination which only ends up helping people at the top. Due to lack of lending in the global markets, only billionaires or China is able to buy factories because only they do not need lending or have their own banks. This was the case in EU and US until recently but since they have spent all their money on unproductive spending, wars and manipulating everything, now they have met a brick wall and China is having a rocking time with all the cash they have available to spend! Lucky for China that they have 1.35bn people so they can create their own demand which we non Chinese cannot undertstand as to why they would leave thousands of empty apartments standing, not because they have billions to feed and clothe and provide a roof for, but because they can afford to do so! (Dont ask the Romans why they built the Colliseum or why the Egyptians built the Pyramids) In every era, these things are built and a use for them is eventually found. It is not that the Chinese are making things that they have no use for or are on a high with so much money. They may make a few mistakes, but till the time they have enough cash with them, they will do just fine.

surfsup's picture

First, the good news, if only for now: the United States, which is the only country to see its 2015 GDP forecast increase, or rather hockeystick, from 2.2% to 3.1%. Good luck with that, considering the end of QE and the whole soaring USD thing.

GDP is a mythical figure since the mid 1980's with an equal amount of credit being issued for alleged units of production since then to produce such figures, after all, it IS a banker's world !

orangegeek's picture

 

 

I - Imbeciles

M - Morons

F - Fuckups

Soul Glow's picture

Revisions don't matter, forecasts matter!  

Thus say the infinately wise policy makers of their tools.

disabledvet's picture

Who's Larry Kudlow now phuckers!

damicol's picture

Fcuk off with all this knocking the IMF.

They are doing their best,, I mean WTF do you expect from a bunch of faggots  run by a Parisian trannie in drag, with hobbled knees, and pol cum habit shes trying to kick..

 I mean give them a break and  just laugh along with the rest at the comedy, and stop trying to figure out what it means.

Next  some of your knocking fuckers on here will be saying Alice wasn't for real.

 

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Fuck hockey.  Roller Derby all the way!

Jano's picture

There is still enough green colour and a paper is there as well, so what?

Ukrainina robbery this year didn't pay off, but maybe Africa could hold the main stream of industry, the war industry, soaring.

Rock On Roger's picture

The wicked orange witch of the west wants more blood from Ukraine.

 

http://slavyangrad.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/91410802764_1216921_origi...