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Small Caps Slammed To 12 Month Lows; Russell Down Over 7% In 2014
30Y Treasury yields are now over 90bps lower on the year having pushed back to 17-month lows today. On the day the entire TSY yield complex tumbled 5-7bps closing on their lows (with 2s30s 5bps flatter to 254bps - flattest since Dec 2012). The USD kept falling again today (down 1.2% since Friday) with the biggest 2-day drop in 13 months. Stocks tanked as for the 2nd day-in-a-row there was no post-European close bounce. Trannies tumbled 2.5% (biggest drop in 7 months) and were the biggest loser but Russell 2000 fell to 12-month lows (and is set for the frist 6-week losing streak since April 2005). Oil slipped back below $88 and silver faded as gold ($1210) and copper flatlined. Stocks close not "off the lows" again, down 1% from Payrolls. VIDX ended the day above 17, up 1.8 on the day.
The Deer is back...
The Russell 2000 is back at one-year lows...
We spent most of the day oscillating around VWAP before real sellers hit in the afternoon...
On the week, Trannies are down 3.6%...
From payrolls on Friday - everything is red...
Year-to-date, Russell is down over 7% and the Dow is getting back close to red...
"most shorted" stocks are down 4.75% on the week - triple the weakness in the S&P...
Once again stocks tried to decouple from bonds... but bonds won...
Treasury yields since the start of 2014 (30Y -91bps, 2Y +13bps)
On the day, yields tumbled to close on their lows... 30Y at 17 month lows...
The USD kept falling - biggest 2-day drop in 13 months...
Commodities were mixed with silver and oil sliding and copper and gold flat...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Early deer is too early
Damn, do I love that deer. He makes me smile every time.
It's like musical chairs with currencies, depending on who needs to try & prop up their equity market phantom wealth balance sheets. CB musical chairs (rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic).
It's time to rip the band-aid off, though, as Germany's deep wounds reveal what a scary state of being the world's largest single block economy, the EU, has devolved into (PIIGSFUK = Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Germany, Spain, France, UK).
And then...
...well, there's China, Japan....and it looks like South Korea's joining the Party.
Bloomberg TV showing a chart with the headline "S&P trend is intact" earlier today. Getting hard to say the same every downtick as trend line was at critical support. Next time they chart that headline will read "Two year S&P rising trend broken". Ouch! (for those who are long). Yeeeeeeeaaaaaahahahahaha!!!
Yellen <3 Belgium
CLF tripple downgraded.... :( SLW scraping the bottom of the barrel.
CLF (iron ore miner) lost more than half it's value in just three weeks: http://scharts.co/1vLiEej
Demand destruction.
Krugman swears that if only the world's Central Banks went even more NIRPY & DERPY, all would be well.
Push on that string, Krugs! Harder! MOAR!
Krugman is too stupid to realize that the very policies he enthusiastically, openly pushes for are what have caused and are continuing to cause an increasingly larger buyers' strike.
Deer in police state headlights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrYtwSzS1bw
"man down, man...down"
RIPS
I only watch CNBC once in a while but love to tune in on days like this. Bob Piss-ani was at it again. Explaining why Yum Brands sales were down 14% and that was good news because it could have been worse. If I made that sh*t up nobody would believe me. Funny as hell.
going to have Jason Goepfert calculate how positive the market returns have been in the 1-day, 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods following the dear making its appearance on Zerohedge.
must be time to btfd.
I got down-arrowed for posting this last week, but:
"It's October 2007 all over again."
so even ZH'ers who go around saying how it's all rigged and the Dow is going to a million and the market is never going down have given your assertion that we are at a major market top 8 thumbs up and 0 thumbs down so far???
that has got to be some sort of buy signal. as soon as Gartman joins your bearish choir tomorrow or the next day, I am going to BTFD.
Useful to know when you're living off the land.
The reason the 30Y yield is down, is that it is the inverse of the price of the paper, and money flows from the Stock Market into the Bond Market, and vice versa. This is what's meant by "risk-on, risk-off". So the price of the 30yrs. was bid up today, and yesterday, by money leaving the stock market; which makes it impossible for the S&P500 to have an intact uptrend.
The trend still is intact. just pull the SPI back to two years and you'll see this current "reversal" in perspective. When we have a 9/10 days like this I'll start to care.
TIS - +1 for PIIGSFUK
Thanks, bro.
It should have been PIIGGSFUK, though, with two Gs (for Germany & Greece - not that anyone bothers to even pay attention to a Greece in complete economic Depression anymore).
Germany, though...as Biden would put it so eloquently, German economic
contraction (in real AND nominal terms) is a Big Fuckin' Deal!
Doe!
(to be read in the voice of Homer's brain):
Margin Call
Retail needs income...
Margin Call
Retail needs income...
Margin Call
Retail needs income...
'margin call' to be read in the voice of lenny
Jump in BTFD'ers, I dare ya.
The deer is the perfect metaphor for this economy, market, etc. Inexplicably frozen, while a 4,500 lb. object is hurling towards it at 60 mph.
Usually when we see this deer, it's "buy the dip" time and he goes back into hiding. Could this time be different???
Anyone remember the Ukraine situation? How about the downed airliner?
Amazing what short memories whe all have.
I thought we all agreed MH17 was shot down by a blast of wind from Howard Stern's ass?
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/howard-stern-fan-pranks-msnbc-m...
Seasonal adjustment.
What did you just say?
What is Ukraine? What airliner?
...Early deer is too early
Don't worry, I'm sure she'll be making repeated on-time appearances in coming days.
I hope so, but that damn deer is a survivor. Maybe we'll get lucky this time and there will be a shit faced drunk behind those headlights.
I don't think we'll see a dead deer pic on ZH until the day the dollar actually dies. You got a wait on your hands for that one.
That would also be the perfect sign-off picture if ZH ever gets taken down.
When we see Bear Cavalry Raiding Party, shit just got real, yo.
*Insiders will be long gone by then.
Anyone else feel the mother of all short squeezes getting loaded up ?
oh dear!
Die, "market".
Not convinced yet that Central Command has given the order for the margin call on world financial system until................I see 1000 dow points drop per day for 3 days in a row
I need to see that one.
My prediction in May 2013 was that a margin call will be made before December 31st, 2014.
All predictions fulfilled thus far except for that one
haven't watched cnbc in years
gotta admit if we had those drops ... i'd tune in ... after i made popcorn
oil hasn't dropped enough
Very good. the odds of your underlying calculation are in your favor; but they may pull some magic out of their ass.
They're really good at kicking the can. The half-dozen ways I've tried to come up with the date over the years all seemed to point no later than 2018, with things getting interesting in 2015.
I'd rather you were right than I, I want to get this shit over with.
>DOW 17000 gone forever
>Momentary blip
monetarty blip
-->popped zit
-->popped blimp
Time for some Belgium-based QE.
Maybe ZH can report on the Overstock Ceo news today... but we can give them a few days...
This?: http://www.wired.com/2014/10/overstock-com-assembles-coders-build-bitcoin-like-stock-market/
They're calling it "Medici" though I'd vote for "Machiavelli" or "Moriarty".
Me thinks PMD has a score to settle...
I think some zhers can appreciate how a decentralized market could be a game changer
The Overstock/Counterparty news from yesterday is great. XCP performing well: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/xcp/btc/poloniex/5-days
Things are getting really interesting.
Deer has Ebola zombie eyes
Stupid herd not following the protocols.
Darn! Just when I was looking forward to what appeared to be an imminent "final taper"!
B-Cups is calling Maria to coordinate their next green shoots stories
I kinda' miss ole nugget nipples.
PMs not the safe haven anymore for some reason....at least on our side of the pond...I thinks its because TPTB know we are only playing with paper..our real gold is gone now...so nothing there in the cupboard...
It's a little early for the safe-haven buying; the mass mind is still seriously considering "buying the dip", in the market. When they're in pain; and they know they're in pain; t hey'll start adjusting to the normal where there's no growth; and the people who still have their money, (purchasing power), look like geniuses, rather than the people who used to have the big numbers; of FRN gains.
If there's not enough phys to buy with your money, then buy the whole mining operation.
This is too funny not to share!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u88vMSbX_xA
If she was still in the IRS she could have any door kicked in; jeez retirement means some hard adjustments.
And she has two dogs, big one and a little one, wonder if their names are "Ego" and "Id"?
Love the old dude: "I don't want her in my house." Got the feeling he knew just who she was.
LOL
That was great...guy has balls, he knows he'll probably get swatted and audited.
does the deer have ebola yet?
*Treasury yields since the start of 2014 (30Y -91bps, 2Y +13bps)*
gosh, i love flattening yield curve
why?
banksters hate it
I've been investing long EDV (30year STRIPS) for about 4 years. I am well aware that it will suffer a big decline someday. Everybody's been telling me that for years. So far though it keeps going up and up. Will someday every come?
i've been long the long end for years
my cue to go will be 10yr @ 1% ... with margin compression i expect 30yr will be (well) under 2% then
At this point in time; the odds are against you; which means you get out. You don't play roulette with your investments; roulette is a game where you have no chance of winning. Nobody gets all of any move; I repeat the odds are against you, and you will have great difficulty changing your mind because of past performance bias; do it now. this is what cold math. analytics reccomends.
It's part of a portfolio with regular reallocation. I think I have performance bias pretty well in check. Of course, when it does starts to drop through the floor the cold math will tell me to buy some more.
It's here right now. Today. Today is the day you take your profits from EDV; all of them; and thank God for your being lucky rather than smart. I don't get to think God for being lucky, I have to get along with being smart; it does work in the real world, though. don't say I didn't tell you so; because I just did. Get The Fuck Out.
haha ... fun just getting started
Glad I didn't listen. Even higher as the market went down.
Dear God please let the crash begin; I am not getting any younger
maybe not now ... but whenever ... it will be worth the wait
Textbook breakdown from an obvious triangle. I hardly ever see that happen in real time.
People EVERYTHING is upside down from option manipulation. Simply sell all float scams ("Growth" cartel holdings) to raise cash and buy gold. Doing so will bring the entire system back into balance. Seriously. Even if you do not believe me, it sill is just wise since cash protects from deflation and gold from inflation. That's all the hedge you need. Avoid VIX like the plague... It's part of the synthetic finance profit streams that have enabled these games to run this long.
If the system ever 'rebalances' stawks and bawnds won't matter, rifles and ammo will.
good advice.
I am so glad Communist motors had another recall. How wonderful of them to product quality products. Ca we get the rest of our money back?
OT. LOIS LERNER VIDEO. WORTH THE WATCH.
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=u88vMSbX_xA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u88vMSbX_xA
Citizen journalism. Need more of it. Harass these creeps.
Transports took a took a nice rectal pounding...
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TRAN:IND
I guess my long Turbo Tuesday bet needs to be reconsidered.
LOL. I told you so.
Transports pounded and oil down? That's odd.
oil down because ponzi can't support high price of it anymore
Do not fear, tomorrow is Wreversal Wednesday.
Glad I never bought into Soda Stream and got out of the markets.
So where is the disaster for gold in margin calls? Aren't we suppose to be in a 2008 redux or is that fighting the last war?
The drop in '08 was about 20% from peak to floor in a couple months, we've already had about 8% of that happen.
My guess is the banks in trouble this time don't have nearly as large of a liquid paper holding than they did five years ago, so the liquidation impacts will be smaller.
You have to have a bunch of spec longs to get the margin calls in gold. They're probably getting squeezed on their shorts right now due to margin calls on the S&P and NASDAQ. Watch for CME to loosen margin requirements so as to give them a little liquidity without having to close their gold short positions.
6 days into the new FY and the government has added $39Billion in new debt already..... MOAR is needed! Onward!!!!
Off da lows!! Oh wait.
Glad I had so much of my 401k going into intl small caps...SMH!
I see the S&P broke the 120d sma for the first time in nearly a year. A close below the 140 (2 points beneath today's close) has not been seen in nearly 2 years. Getting hairy.
VIX - alive and kickin?
Our beloved mascot! May the Deer return daily for a while, until the banksters start falling from the skies...
here is my call.
ES bottoms this week 1880 then --> 1980---> 1800--->1850--->1650--->WW3
Yeah, yeah, no argument: the deer is beloved by all.
Now where is that road-kill muppet-in-the-ditch pic?
Another day when the closing Russell headline masks the intraday action -- today was absolute hell to trade, with 4 huge swings that went far beyond VWAP, with no real direction until after 2:30. Having seen this several times on big down days, I suspect an institutional “distribution” algo designed to frustrate shorts by swinging far beyond typical stops, building favorable entries all day for the final dump. I suppose the other option might be an “argument” between those with high stakes (and high power) on opposing sides of the equation (i.e., bounce to 20 DMA vs. a move to 12 month lows), but my vote would be for the former.
As a matter of fact, I am getting younger by the day, so I would like to see this market levitate for a few more decades before crashing.
in this tinfoilhat is true world my bet is sir yellen and company have a number in mind for the russell(since she clearly meant to correct it by her own admission) and will levitate it when it hits that number. it looks close.
Yeah, but least they closed off of lows not seen since last month.
Expecto payrolls. No?
Praise the Lord. Let there be light. The question above all is: Can something come from nothing or did Loyd Blankfein imply that it could when he stated that he was doing God's work. Arrest the fraudster Blankfein.
So...any 'news' on the ukraine front?..or is that over now?
Ebola. That is all.
I love that deer...
The market has gone dark and I agree with the doe: I'm not going in there for 2 bucks again.