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Finally, Here Come The Banks: "Ebola Is A Tail-Risk That Can No Longer Be Ignored"
Barclays' FX Research team explains why Ebola can no longer be ignored...
1. Is Ebola a significant market risk?
Before the current Ebola outbreak began in December, the disease was already notorious and fear inspiring despite having afflicted only 2,345 people in the 37 years since its discovery, nearly all of whom were in remote villages in Central Africa and 1,546 of whom died. Yet, as long as sporadic outbreaks remained contained and confined, it had little impact on the global economy or markets. The current outbreak in West Africa may be changing that.
The West African Ebola outbreak that began in Guinea is notably different from prior outbreaks in ways that significantly increase its chances of having a broader impact. In particular, Ebola’s likelihood of spreading to larger, more integrated economies has increased. It remains a tail risk, but has jumped in probability to one that can no longer be ignored.
There are several important differences between this Ebola outbreak and previous episodes.
First is its size: confirmed cases and mortalities – 4,087 and 2,071, respectively – already are greater than all prior outbreaks combined and growing at an uncontrolled pace. Including probable and suspected cases increases those numbers to 7,470 and 3,431, respectively (Figure 1), and both the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) believe these numbers are underestimated, perhaps by a factor of 2.5.
Second, the current outbreak is more urban than prior outbreaks, with Freetown, Sierra Leone and Monrovia, Liberia being among the hardest hit areas.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, the current outbreak is on the edge of a vast, densely populated area of 334 million people that is an ideal breeding ground for disease (Figure 3). As Robert Kaplan described it 20 years ago when its population was about half as large, “the Lome-Abidjan coastal corridor – indeed, the entire stretch of coast from Abidjan eastward to Lagos – is one burgeoning megalopolis that by any rational economic and geographical standard should constitute a single sovereignty, rather than the five (the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria) into which it is currently divided.” Somewhat presciently, Kaplan noted this densely populated, impoverished, crime-ridden area was a perfect Petri dish for pestilence.
Figure 2 presents statistics on some of the socio-economic and health factors that make the region particularly susceptible to disease. The region’s young population – median age is 18.3 years – suffers the worst of poverty’s fellow travellers, including low literacy rates, poor access to clean water and to improved sanitation, and few health professionals and facilities. Illiteracy and residual warlordism from recent civil wars were key contributors to the rapid spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia as health workers had difficulty educating a distrustful population on prevention, and in cases have been attacked on rumors they brought the disease. Making matters worse, Ebola has disproportionately stricken healthcare workers, reducing already low ratios to the general population.
A fourth difference is an active debate over how contagious the virus is now and what its potential to become more contagious is. Researchers have established that Ebola’s genetic structure is subject to a rapid pace of mutation and have documented numerous genetic changes to the virus, Zaire ebolavirus, one of five documented strains of Ebola, both from previous outbreaks and since the current outbreak began. The implications of these changes for the virus’s behaviour and morbidity are not yet known and will require significant further study. Health officials and researchers are not in agreement about the virus’s current and potential means of transmission. The WHO and CDC maintain that Ebola can only be transmitted via direct contact of an infected, symptomatic person’s bodily fluids with open lesions or with mucus membranes. Yet, the Public Health Agency of Canada and the Federation of American Scientists warn that aerosolized transmission, though unconfirmed in human-to-human transmission, has been documented in non-human primates and pigs.
Adding to the debate over the contagiousness of the strain of Ebola behind the current West African outbreak is its rapid expansion and higher-than-usual rate of infection of health professionals. The current outbreak is between 6.8 and 12.4 times larger – confirmed versus suspected cases – than the next largest outbreak, the first one in (then) Zaire and Sudan in 1976. As noted above, this may reflect a slow initial response combined with cultural differences between West Africa and Central Africa. But the higher rate of infection among health professionals is more difficult to explain. Through late August, the latest date for which complete statistics were available, 120 healthcare professionals had died from Ebola, or roughly 8% of confirmed, probable and suspected cases. By comparison, in the 1976 outbreak, when Ebola was an unknown new pathogen, 11 healthcare workers died from the disease, 2% of total deaths. Among the health professionals killed by the disease were five of 58 authors of the genomic study of the current outbreak, cited above, including Sheik Humarr Khan, an expert on hemorrhagic fevers and director of the Lassa fever program for the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation.
A more robust domestic and international response may still turn the tide of Ebola. The spread of the West African outbreak to both Senegal and to Nigeria was quickly contained and no new cases have manifest. In the last month, global attention has increased and with it resources devoted to combating the disease’s spread. Indeed, there already are signs that its pace of expansion has slowed.
Figure 4 plots the rate of growth of new Ebola infections – confirmed; confirmed and probable; and confirmed, probable and speculated – at a monthly rate between WHO situation reports (the longer time series in Figure 1 is for combined confirmed, probable and suspected cases). All three measures have fallen sharply to just under 50% per month since the surge of the late summer, when the average rate of change at a monthly rate rose to over 100%. However, this only takes the rate of expansion back to its July level, and the late summer surge may have reflected improved accounting. Furthermore, the geographic distribution of new cases continues to expand within Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and is expanding towards Côte d’Ivoire.
A strong external response may reinforce the trend of slowing expansion and ultimately contain and extinguish the West African outbreak. If it does not and Ebola’s eastward expansion continues at even the reduced current pace into the more populous countries of West Africa, the mathematics of geometric progression implies terrifyingly large numbers of cases in the not-distant future. The path of cumulative Ebola cases is projected, in log scale, in Figure 5 under two growth rate assumptions: the average rate of growth of confirmed cases since end June (66% per month) and since end August (54%). Both paths are more conservative than the CDC’s projection of 550,000 cases by January – even more so relative to the CDC’s “worst-case scenario” of 1.4 million – because the CDC includes probable and suspected cases in their starting point. But even more conservative projections that start with only confirmed cases and use the slower September growth rate suggest that there could be 1 million cases by the first week of August, 2015. If growth averaged its June-September pace, there could be 1 million cases by the second week of June 2015.
Case numbers that large raise the probability that Ebola could become endemic – that is permanently resident – in the West African population of 334 million. Beyond the human tragedy that implies for West Africa, the prospect of endemicity increases the probability of Ebola having a greater impact on the global economy and financial markets. Afflicted countries’ relatively small weight in global GDP, trade and financial markets so far has limited Ebola’s effects on global markets despite an already larger-than-SARS death toll.10 But a sustained outbreak in a larger or more globally integrated economy likely would have a significant impact on global markets.
That endemicity of Ebola to West Africa, or even a larger outbreak, greatly increases the chances of the disease breaking out to other more economically integrated economies is evident in the fact that cases have already been confirmed in Dallas, Texas and Madrid, Spain despite an outbreak of only 7,000 people in three small countries without direct air traffic to either the United States or Spain. If the projections in Figure 5 are fulfilled – much less the worse estimates of the CDC – the likelihood of Ebola spreading to other economies would rise sharply. The economic and market effects of sustained global outbreaks is another source of uncertainty, undertaken in the next question.
2. What lessons does SARS hold for Ebola?
The 2003 SARS outbreak, primarily in East Asia, is a good starting point for analysis of the potential effects on economies and on global financial markets of an expansion of Ebola outside of West Africa. But one of the lessons from the SARS experience is that it may not be an appropriate analogue for a possible Ebola breakout from Africa.
Barclays re-examined some of the lessons of the SARS episode for Asian economies in Revisiting Asia’s SARS experience, 20 August 2014. Among the lessons: 1) supply disruptions were minimal because the disease did not afflict enough people to curtail labor supply meaningfully; 2) the primary impact was a panic-driven decline in demand, especially for local services and for tourism, but there was some short-lived effect on trade and investment as decisions were delayed due to uncertainty; 3) once the disease was controlled and panic subsided, activity rebounded rapidly.
There are important differences between the SARS and West African Ebola outbreaks, however, both in current fact and in potential. SARS, an airborne respiratory virus, is more contagious than Ebola, but only about 1/8th as lethal. The greater lethality of Ebola, if its spread continues, may imply a supply effect for currently affected economies that was not present with SARS, especially in the dominant, labor-intensive agrarian sector. SARS afflicted several economies that were deeply integrated in the global economy, including Canada, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam; whereas Ebola is confined to much smaller, much less globally integrated economies. The SARS afflicted economies also benefitted from much better health statistics than do West African economies (see Figure 3). As noted in Question 1, this may explain Ebola’s rapid spread in the current outbreak.
The more interesting differences may be around potential. If Ebola continues to expand as explored in Question 1 and becomes endemic to West Africa, its then likely eruptions into the broader world also may be different from the SARS experience. First, while Ebola is not now as contagious as SARS, its greater mortality likely will inspire as much panic as SARS. But the difference with SARS would be that the persistence of a large human host reservoir would mean any panic may not fade as rapidly, particularly if it spawned sporadic mini outbreaks.
Second, the persistence of a large human host reservoir in West Africa would increase the probability that Ebola became epidemic or even endemic elsewhere in two ways: the continuous flare-ups of outbreaks would give the virus more chances to take hold elsewhere; and, as discussed in Question 1, a human host reservoir would give it greater opportunity to evolve into a more communicative, higher morbidity disease. SARS never became epidemic or endemic anywhere, and as such was not able to significantly affect the supply chain of the global economy. A sustained outbreak of a high mortality disease like Ebola in any large or important economy in the global supply chain would imply significantly larger impact than SARS caused.
3. What do you need to monitor and what could be Ebola’s effects?
As noted above, for Ebola to become a serious market risk, it needs to more acutely threaten demand or supply in larger or more economically integrated economies. Ebola’s threat to the global economy and markets would increase markedly if it either became endemic to West Africa or became more contagious and increased its rate of morbidity. But the response of larger, more economically integrated countries to any breakouts of the West African Ebola virus is likewise important.
What should investors monitor to assess the risks to markets from Ebola? In our view, three things:
1. A sustained pace of expansion within West Africa, or conversely containment and recession that eliminates the likelihood of endemicity;
2. Evidence of increased contagiousness among new cases, either due to new transmission vectors (like aerosol) or a longer period of asymptomatic contagion;
3. The success of countries outside of West Africa in containing the periodic cases that likely will escape the region, or already have in the case of Dallas, Texas.
Ebola’s expansion can be monitored in WHO situation reports on the West African Ebola outbreak: does the rate of infection continue to slow and remain restricted to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, or does it expand to new countries and sustain a rapid pace of expansion? Monitoring contagiousness is more difficult as it will be months before even preliminary analyses of the already documented changes in the Ebola genome are mapped to phenotypical outcomes (physical or chemical changes that determine the virus’s survival and means of replication). The sole case of Ebola in Dallas, Texas is simultaneously concerning and reassuring. There are already several well documented missteps in containment of the victims’ contacts, and yet the lack of further infections – so far – is reassuring that Ebola may be less dangerous in wealthier, healthier societies.
If Ebola becomes endemic and more contagious, its threat to the global economy and markets likely will be greater than SARS’ impact in 2003. Without endemicity in West Africa, mishandled outbreaks outside of Africa may have more temporary, SARS-like effects on local economies and markets. The greatest potential impact of Ebola is a combination of the two: endemicity and/or greater contagiousness combined with a mishandling of an outbreak outside of West Africa. That combination, for the reasons noted in Question 2, likely would have a significantly greater impact on the global economy, perhaps through both demand and supply channels, and as such on global financial markets.
Endemicity of Ebola in West Africa that spawned continuous periodic outbreaks elsewhere, or more destructively a sustained outbreak in a large or globally integrated economy, likely would lead to lower average growth with greater volatility, lowering risk free yields and increasing risk asset spreads. Those countries that best demonstrate their ability to avoid contagion, or best manage Ebola outbreaks when they occur, likely will see lower risk premia attached to their assets and higher equilibrium exchange rate values.
It must be emphasized again that endemicity of Ebola anywhere – including West Africa – remains a tail risk. But it is a tail risk that has left the fringes.
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What does it all mean???
Buy funeral directors!!
I was going to say Batesville Casket Company, but then I realized.... Who makes crematoriums?
Here is your market risk and freak out time on Wall Street if it's a positive test:
10.8 BREAKING NEWS: Possible Ebola Case in New York Citychill bitchez...Bathhouse Barry's got this.
seriously though...think about how easily the puppetmasters-in-control (who are, i assume, scared to death of losing control of the Senate 4 weeks from now) could use this rapidly developing "crisis" to , say, "temporarily (*coughindefinitelycough*) postpone" the midterm elections...cuz , of course, we couldn't have fair elections if some folks can't make it to the voting booths ....
Well, DoW, you may have to wait in line behind your Ugandan cousin Mr. Marburg. Seems he may be catching up.
Not an advocate but... hand to mouth to ass fiat currency is an almost perfect vector to transmit an infectious disease.
Calling Helicopter Ben, Helicopter Ben report to dressing.
Would YOU really walk past that C-Note laying on the ground?
This comment is spot on. And the most chilling thing that I have read about Ebola.
If Ebola could mutate into a 100% fatal certain virus that ONLY infected those working at too big to fail institutions, Wall Street firms with a direct lifeline with the FRBNY, Central Bankers & those attending Bilderberg/Bohemian Grove, I'd know there is a just God.
Throw in ALL politicians and you would have a Truly Just God.
Am I the only one who finds it enormously amusing that a large swathe of the global economy could shut down because of a fruit bat?
Centralization for the win! Right? ... right?
Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just
- Thomas Jefferson
The Unbearable Truth - Christianity is a lie
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lGG1fgSkl4
Humans are so Monty Pythonesk in that generations upon generations of people have believed utter bullshit and spent enormous amounts of time and energy defending these beliefs. You couldn't make this shit up.
Why wait for a positive test before enjoying a well-earned freak out? I usually just go ahead a freak out ahead of the crowd, almost nobody seems to notice, and by the time everyone else is freaking out I've already gotten over it, had a nice time, and am ready to get down with some serious post-freak conspiracy theorizing.
You really need a strategy these days. Freak outs are so common now you need to get in and then out quickly in time for the next one. Overlapping your freaks is hard on post-freak recovery and can lead to cramps and vomiting -- which are ebola symptoms please notice -- so you need to stay clear of those. Don't let the crowd set your pace, space your freaks out a bit and enjoy them.
I have my phone set up to remind me to freak out every two hours. It works great. I kind of operate at a low level of freak all the time, which is much more manageable.
It's probably the main reason I've been more mellow recently. Also mass quantities of alcohol.
Mine bleeds from its battery jack every hour with my new ebolapp.
So what about that biowarfare lab in Kenema owned by Soros/Gates and the WHO lead investigator shot down in Ukraine?
Nothing to see here, citizen. Move along.
Can I do a happy dance now, or should I wait for some scumbag bankster to die?
I would wait for the deadpool on bankers to kickoff. From what company will the first banker catch and the first banker die from ebola.
If the most they have is that the guy visited Nigeria in the last couple weeks, the chances are very slim he has ebola. More likely he would be that he has no health insurance (or really crappy health insurance)... I think its going to take a bit more to start dropping scumbag banksters.
When it gets realy serious, you just have to lie.
"Change We Can Bereave In".
a good televised wet sneeze right into Blankfien cocksucker would be the ticket to getting a cure toot sweet.
Long lighter makers... Bic!
Sell funeral directors
Perhaps whoever released this statement didnt' remember what Bernanke said about tail risk:
Gold is purchased by people who want protection from really bad outcomes; what we call "tail risk".
- Bernocchio, 2012
Hyper-Ebola aside this outbreak is fundamentally different and should have been addressed months ago.
But hey, go long medical supplies and mask makers. 3M is going to have a BANNER year.
So much for the North Texas real estate market though.
"First is its size: confirmed cases and mortalities – 4,087 and 2,071, respectively – already are greater than all prior outbreaks combined and growing at an uncontrolled pace."
Uh, wrong. Updated figures today from WHO:
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136020/1/roadmapsitrep_8Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1
8033 cases with 3879 deaths
"There is no evidence that the EVD epidemic in West Africa is being brought under control..."
And the WHO admits those numbers are low due to the inability to track migrant worker patterns to and from Western Africa....
Who's going to throw resources at it when every agency is telling people to be calm, you can't catch it, it's not coming here?
I was on the other side of this issue a couple weeks ago. Thought this was a bunch of overblown fear-mongering. I guess I had some residual trust in the CDC (they're normally a pretty buttoned-down and trustworthy institution). I was wrong. In hindsight, I should have known better. Just a bunch of political hacks who will still be telling us to be calm as they're bulldozing infected bodies into mass graves by the thousands.
I listened to that CDC presser earlier today with fresh ears and this is what I heard, unspoken, but unmistakable: "We can't stop it and we're not even going to try. All we can do is chart the path of it's destruction." That was followed immediately by the announcement of ANOTHER person coming down with Ebola who had been part of the crew that went through the house of the first guy. Obviously NOT a hard disease to transmit, despite assurances it is.
I've NEVER trusted the CDC.
Here's just the most recent example from a couple months ago:
http://healthimpactnews.com/2014/cdc-whistleblower-cdc-covered-up-mmr-vaccine-link-to-autism-in-african-american-boys/
http://healthimpactnews.com/2014/the-vaccine-autism-cover-up-how-one-doctors-career-was-destroyed-for-telling-the-truth/
Many of us following the epidemic of autism have been questioning the potential link to vaccinations for over a decade. We were all labeled 'quacks' by the CDC. (Mrs. Shark is a physician with a profoundly-autistic 20-year old nephew.)
It turns out the CDC INTENTIONALLY FAKED DATA LINKING VACCINATIONS TO AUTISM.
So, why would they start telling us the truth about Ebola?
"When it gets serious, you have to lie..."
Vaccines don't cause autism. The drugs used to induce labor cause autism. Messes up the brain's natural specialization process that takes place between ages 2 to 4 1/2 years old.
"Vaccines don't cause autism."
It's not the vaccines per se. Those who have studied the issue thoroughly (and who haven't been bought-off by the drug companies) believe it's a combination of the preservatives (Thimerosal; a derivative of mercury; among others) and a pre-disposed genetic condition in the toddler that causes a reaction.
Autistic children have been shown to not process heavy metals properly, and are especially prone to fungal infections. The belief is that the shock to the immune system by hitting a toddler with three simultaneous vaccinations (MMR) triggers an immune reaction that may result in the onset of autism.
Of course, the vaccine companies have fought this assertion, and have now been exposed for covering-up data which supports it.
But I'm not the doctor; you'd have to get the details from Mrs Shark...
10.08.14 – NIH: ‘We May Have to Vaccinate Whole Countries to Stop Ebola Outbreak’
Most of the studies (that the drug companies pay for) also seem to analyze single vaccines (ceteris paribus)... There are combinations both of ingredients and entire vaccines to factor in, particularly when you are giving small children batteries of multiple simultaneous vaccinations (which is much more difficult to properly quantify).
Back when they rolled out MMR over 40 years ago (I've heard from older relatives)- guys in medical school at the time still regarded autistics as circus freak aberrations that they "might not ever get another chance to see", and the spike in cases of autism seems a generation more recent...
As an adult I've done boosters for T/D and HAV & HBV and a separate typhoid in one day. Probably the worst was my first yellow fever and my first meningitis along with an MMR booster and polio booster. But I wouldn't subject a small child to all that toxic shit in a single day, much less a single year, but you have schools demanding annual flu vaccinations and all these newfangled (but probably benign in a vacuum) vaccines IN ADDITION TO all the other shit that everyone else grew up with... and then they try do as many at one time as possible to keep the per transaction labor and administrative costs down and the per-patient volumes up...
And the mere suggestion of a randomized, double blinded, placebo controlled study of the recommended schedule in its entirety, elicits shrieks from bioethicists at esteemed organizations such as the CDC & AAP.
Actually doing the science thing is verboten.
You don't understand. I was doing studies at XXXXXX Childrens Hospital in New England from 1971 to 1999. I worked on studies at Rutgers and Harvard too. Labor inducing drugs cause autism. It jacks up kids (boys) brain specialization, when the brain prunes away neural pathways between the ages of 2 to 4 1/2. The Germans discovered this in the early 2000's when they moved toward natural childbirth in an effort to control costs. Labor preventative drugs cause the opposite effect and serious endocrine problems in boys by a ratio of 5 to 1, undeveloped testes and serious endocrine problems in later life. OXITOCIN is the key to the autism mystery. This is why autism rates are only high in the west and not in Asia, Latin America, and Africa who use vaccines in even a more rigorous manner..
It started in mass in 1968.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8WV1zAh9zU
The 2nd guy may not have ebola. No test results yet. His symptoms were, apparently: nausea. That's it. Could have been a bad batch of donuts.
Or fear.
Oh, I thought it was the risk of catching an STD from some strange hot chic.
Thanks for the clarification bro!
When the banks are involved you know it's complete bullshit.
They need cover for their currency collapse and they don't really care how.
P.s. This is the Marburg virus.
market risk? that's what they're worried about, market risk? we are so fucked.
Someone's gotta pretend like everything is okay in order for the facade to continue.
When the only tool you have is a hammer ...
...you need to buy some more tools?
Here come the money changers!!!
Bankers are will live, just looking to leverage Ebola as a distraction if war won't work.
Insurance companies must be sweating bullets.
I was thinking the same thing. The biggest supply side vampires are insurance companies.
I was wondering what it does to the US Gov balance sheet against FED Cartel debt when half of their taxpayer collateral is 6ft under...I am pretty sure the FED is going to call the loan and take possession
Almost 1/2 of the US Gov balance sheet is .gov financed. There would likely be a "net gain" in revenue {short term} as all the .gov pensioners were "passing away" from un-natural causes.
Good comment.
they will change the laws so they don't have to pay for ebola
Ha! Yeah that's exactly what they will do. And since they will, people with symptoms will lay low until they are dead and free of symptoms, just to prank the life insurors and get a payout for their survivors. Shall we go down that path into the realm of unindended consequences and see how it works out?
Go give your insurance guy or gal a nice big ole juicy kiss when they say no, to, you know, let them know you understand!
I cussed out an insurance guy once so bad he had to get up and close the door. I apologized a little later when reality sunk in and he said it happens all the time. Part of the job. Now conjugal visits on the other hand???
An ultrasonic humidifier plus blood sample upwind of the insurance company around 1645 during a cloudy day might be proper "fuck you" to them doing that.
they will change the laws so they don't have to pay for ebola
They'll declare it an act of God. He's Omnipotent & Omniscient, isn't he? Well then; all this ebola thingy must be His will.
The great invisble grey bearded sky man. Humans are so bloody stupid. But he is real don't you know, I have proof, it says so in a book written by humans.
There goes their obamacare obscene windfall profits.... geee, that's tooooii baaaaaad....
Gives new meaning to the expression Black Swan.
Don't worry. Rumor has it that the Fed and its minion have plans to create/sell/buy Ebola derivatives, thus netting out any possible affect the actual disease may have. Defaults on individual lives will be considered non systemic.
If you are going to do wrong you gotta do wrong right.
dupe
Don't worry, this shit is contained, contained like sub-prime loans Bitchez!
50% of the algo programmers and support staff can keep the markets going.
Just think of the job opportunities if 50% of the population dies?
/sarc
/sarc aside, the plague loosened the grip of the feudal overlords on their serfs.
Outside of Africa, there is but one known case of ebola. It will be contained in the first world.
Awesome.. When did the CDC start trolling ZH?
We'll have a pretty good idea from what we see in Dallas and Madrid over the next 3 weeks.
I know of one in Spain, one in the US and one in Canada just from casually following the news.
If only the CDC would be this forthright with Americans. I think Knukles nailed their game plan when he commented yesterday:
"Mark my words. This turns into the 21st Century plague all over the Earth and the health authorities will duck blame by saying it Mutated...."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-07/spain-warns-something-went-wron...
This is a blood born pathogen and thus unlike SARS et al has a "long lead time."
Not an expert but the problem as I see it is that once this thing starts ramping up its going to be really hard to shut down.
Hence the term "outbreak." The fact that the numbers are small can equal a very bad form of complacency...namely "there is no danger really" because the numbers are so small.
There is a reason there was a movie made about this thing...and it has a lot to do with "low numbers does not equal low probability."
This thing has a fatality rate in excess of 50%.
Can be spread through sex as well.
Wonderful !!! I hope that ebola knocks down the human population by 99% - especially the mythological cult worshipers, socialists, parasites, politicians and of course central bankers.
Maybe the survivors can create a human race worthy of existence.
"Maybe the survivors"
Dream on. They'll end up doing the same old shit same as everyone else did it.
You're an idiot. Humans can't rule themselves ever. 6,000 years of history proves that. Must be difficult being a nihlist.
Must be difficult being a realist. What you've just said is that mankind is doomed to suffer eternal conflict. I hope for better outcomes, even if unrealistic.
You mean you have faith? Isn't that part of evil religion and spirituality like the above poster and his "mythological folks"?
Didn't say anything about faith. Only hope.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stand_on_Zanzibar
the 4 horseman of the apocalypse are arriving right on schedule....
white horse, check. plenty of disease to be found.
red horse, check. plenty of war and getting worse.
black horse, coming soon to a town near you.
pale horse, obviously.
You forgot Crazy Horse.
And John Kerry
"Lower average growth." LOL
DJIA will be ebola-ized.
The New York real estate market will be decimated.
Wall Street will become deserted.
Chlorox will do a booming business.
You will run for your life.
Great as a novel, not so great as real life. Fingers crossed this thing gets contained.
Just a thought....can we eat ebola infected long pig if thoroughly cooked?
The boys at dollar inc can control just about anything, but they can't control hurricanes, plauge, earthquakes, and natural disasters.
If they begin to get nerveous and take action, then it might just be pretty bad.
The good news is you dont have to suffer vary long. Not like radiation poisoning or as expensive as AIDS. You get it say your goodbyes and have a few days before you get really sic, bleed out and die.
Ebola is perfect cover for the next round of massive QE. Hell, maybe they'll take the next step and just go long e-mini's....oh, thats right they already do that.
They will have to print the dead have their 401ks sold that a lot of dollar demand. On top of everything else. Insureance companies would need to sell assets to buy dollars even with QE thats a lot of bonds/stocks being sold.
This is getting pretty big. Even if it's not really long term the economy will tank.
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/10/08/new-york-city-deploys-fake-patients-to-test-hospitals-on-ebola/
http://nypost.com/2014/10/08/nyc-man-hospitalized-for-symptoms-of-ebola/
Notice anything wrong about the second article?
It's impossible to determine within hours the results for Ebola and Dallas learned. But here they are clearing the patient mere hours later. It doesn't say he was confirmed as any other flu or anything.
And this shows the desparation that is becoming apparent:
http://nypost.com/2014/10/08/dog-of-nurse-with-ebola-is-killed-amid-protests/
And this is what I thought about 2 months back. Pets transmitting.
deleted
Tail risk = Ebola
Ebola, by definition, is about tail risk, the risk that you will poo out your tail till you are dead.
Nothing personal, but your deleted message and avatar seemed somehow to invite this observation.
I am glad men like our butts. But they are butts...
The figures are wrong, if you look at WHO's website they state that the number of cases is being seriously under reported.
The total number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases in the West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported up to the end of 5 October 2014 (epidemiological week 40) is 8033 with 3879 deaths. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and the United States of America. A confirmed case of EVD has been reported in Spain
The past week has seen a continuation of recent trends: the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone continues to deteriorate, with widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. Problems with data gathering in Liberia continue. It should be emphasized that the reported fall in the number of new cases in Liberia over the past three weeks is unlikely to be genuine. Rather, it reflects a deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data. It is clear from field reports and first responders that EVD cases are being under-reported from several key locations, and laboratory data that have not yet been integrated into official estimates indicate an increase in the number of new cases in Liberia.
There is no evidence that the EVD epidemic in West Africa is being brought under control, though there is evidence of a decline in incidence in the districts of Lofa in Liberia, and Kailahun and Kenema in Sierra Leone
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136020/1/roadmapsitrep_8Oct2014...
And yet Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Burkina Faso are TOTALLY clean. Right ....
Ebolanomics™. Get with it.
I was walking through the jungle with my dick in my hand, I'm the baddest mutherfucker in Ebola land.
I spied Tom Frieden from the CDC, I told that pud tugger not to lie to me.
I heard his talk watched his back track walk , his main concern was economic shock!
Yeah, the kids across the street are jumping rope to that one.
Must've gone viral.
Ba Dummmmm Bump, Tshshshshsh.
The new "Ring Around The Rosie". You'll be famous.
Long on marble! Did you know you can sell your scrap marble kitchen counters for grave stone carvers?!
What a fkng business idea! What did I win?
A big marble tombstone.
Happy now ?
LOL!!
And if Ebola goes suddenly away, which can because viruses mutate quickly, then it will be all bullish for stocks.
The major risk for Africa is the destruction of the Food infrastructure .
People too scared or too few to work the land . Too scared to consume unknown produce .
This has happened before in historical times .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2012/08/rinderpest-and-boer-war.html
This happened in 1898 , and had planet-wide consequences due to the inordinate gold and other precious metals in the African Continent .
Wars about the empty spoils .
See also http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2010/12/megafauna-extinctions.html
Something like 0.5% of US population is involved in food production .
Something like Ebola in the American mid-west maize field farmers will mean that large parts of the planet will starve .
Cue that one fucker who pimps his blog about plants farming US!
OT: That girl in the left hand pop-up with the cutoffs on is the best thing on this site all day!
duplicate
In America, one big risk is the loss of food infrastructure.
STOCK UP, now. No amount is too much. Don't tell anyone and hide it from looters
Something like Ebola in the American mid-west maize field farmers will mean that large parts of the planet will starve .
Maize? Oh, you mean corn.
Population densities in these areas are extremely low. In order for Ebola to mow down Kansas and Nebraska, it will have to be virulently airborne to a degree that has not previously been even hinted at-- and will only take out these areas long after their urban customer base has been annihilated. Plus, it's sunny and treeless out there so there are few safe places for ambient ebola to hang out while waiting to hitch a ride. Sure I suppose there's some fruit bats around various belfries but these are local fruit bats rather than undocumented fruit bats from someplace else.
Ebola in various transportation bottleneck areas such as ports or rail yards might prevent shipment to at-risk areas but the food stocks themselves are likely to be available.
Listen Tyler.
Nice meaty article. Pandemi-nomics at it's finest.
Thanks. It's what's for dinner.
Oh, I like that.
"this densely populated, impoverished, crime-ridden area was a perfect Petri dish for pestilence."
Luv it.
I'm thinking I'd like to experiment a little with the virus to see if I could create a, excuse me, create an antidote.
$10k for a live sample. rajapg@india.com
Payable in gold.
Central banks will take war or ebola to crash the economy, anything so they do not have to take any responsibility for their dismal management of the monetary system. They have loaded the world with bad debt repeatedly then demanded taxpayers take the responsibility and force austerity on us. Now since we are waking up to the game they have bail ins written into legislation. Take your money from the banks and the markets. Walk away with what you have now- this is a rigged game and you are not on the list of pre determined winners. Get out now.
Maybe tad off topic but thinking if E ola spreads widely how long before Israel takes advantage of the tragedy as a cover for the next level of ethnic cleansing.
Discuss.
nothing to discuss except your obvious racism
If an Israeli washes his hands, some people would call that ethnic cleansing.
I hope they do, every dead islamic cult worshiper is a contribution to cleansing the earth.
For the first time ever, I believe the quote "This time it's different."
Has any doom and gloom predicted over the last 6 years come true? No. I won't believe anything about ebola until I see one of them on my leg.
Swine flu, bird flu, mad cow disease, what else has there been that was supposed to kill us all? Al Gore says the Earf has a fever(and the center of the Earf is very hot, several millions of degrees). Meanwhile we just put up with the seasonal flu killing 30,000+ every year as normal.
If Ebola takes off, it gives the CBs cover to print again sooner.
When is a war not a war but as good as a war? When you're fighting germs!
Print! They won't need to it will give them cover for total collapse. And the destruction of 70% of their unfunded liabilities.
Oil is going to $60 bbl, the ~10yr shale boom will be back only if the arctic sweet crude doesnt replace it Russia keeps Crimea for at least that long and Keiv/Grozny will not join NATO
.
the fed will print bitchez
If people have no assets, but they have maxed out their "credit" cards, and they die...
The banks are screwed royally.
They will only cremate the bodies as it's found people are getting it from indirect contact.
The Dallas Sheriff deputy is one of them. Lied to by the CDC.
Those 3,000 US soldiers were giving a death sentence.
The CDC is a libtard organization.
Plus hoards of Africans infected with Ebola coming to the US for treatment.
all its going to take is a couple terrorists searching for them 72 virgins. We'll be toast
Nothing is far more entertaining than CDC illustration of a albino having the
Enterovirus D68 snivels.http://www.cdc.gov/
"Never let a crisis go to waste."
Obomba is purposely encouraging the spread of Ebola. Sending 3000 Army troops over there so that they can contract the disease. Not shutting down the flights to West Africa. All these actions to encourage the virus spreading to the USA.
When the full blown US epidemic kicks into gear...oh about 2016...voting will be cancelled. Martial law will be declared, and Michelle becomes the permanent first lady.
Brilliant.
Americans ignored Ebola while thousands of people died in Africa, now that one person gets sick in America it has become an "Oh My God" moment. This virus has worked overtime to pick up "critical mass." I'm referring to the point where enough people are infected with the virus that it can sustain a chain reaction and expand out of control.
The bad news is Ebola may have already reached critical mass and may now be impossible to contain. The economic and humanitarian implications of this are massive and it could change everything. More on why we should be very concerned in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/ebola-may-have-reached-critical-m...
Where have I seen this before?
Oh yeah: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-08/2nd-dallas-patient-shows-ebola-...
Didn't resonate much better over there.
I predict Ebola absolutely WILL spread widely in the USA. These are the critical reasons why:
1. Humans are CARRIERS for long periods BEFORE they are symptomatic, therefore infected humans will pass through screening stations into the uninfected population in very large numbers and then become infectious to many others.
2. Infected people all over the world will do anything to get to the USA because they know that they have the best chance of survival in the USA thanks to socialized medicine, which wil overwhelm the healthcare system. The obama regime will welcome these deadly-disease carriers with open arms.
3. With the winter season approaching, the incidence of cold viruses & influenza viruses will greatly increase, along with symptoms similar to onset of ebola, which will result in flooding the healthcare system with concerned people, resulting in many first-contact healthcare workers becoming infected, who will go on to infect the rest of the healthcare system from the inside.
4. The large scale public school system & child daycare system in the USA will ensure that a very high percentage of the child population will become infected, which will result in all the school/daycare workers and parents becoming infected.
5. The ebola virus can remain virulent outside a host long enough to greatly increase the exposure surface area in the USA's modern society, eg by workers in industrial-scale food processing and especially fast-food restaurants.
6. The Obama regime will take every action possible to maximize the exposure of Americans in order to serve the obama's immoral collectivist socialist racist ideologies.
If the West doesn't shut the borders now and contain the virus offshore, it will get ugly due to the effects of inability to quarantine all surfaces in our towns and communities contaminated by ebola tourists en route to treatment , which will then contaminate the healthy population coming into contact with those contaminated surfaces.... Game Over.
The survival of filoviruses in liquids, on solid substrates and in a dynamic aerosol.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study has shown that Lake Victoria marburgvirus (MARV) and Zaire ebolavirus (ZEBOV) can survive for long periods in different liquid media and can also be recovered from plastic and glass surfaces at low temperatures for over 3 weeks. The decay rates of ZEBOV and Reston ebolavirus (REBOV) plus MARV within a dynamic aerosol were calculated. ZEBOV and MARV had similar decay rates, whilst REBOV showed significantly better survival within an aerosol.
SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY:Data on the survival of two ebolaviruses are presented for the first time. Extended data on the survival of MARV are presented. Data from this study extend the knowledge on the survival of filoviruses under different conditions and provide a basis with which to inform risk assessments and manage exposure to filoviruses.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20553340
As long as the viral membrane remains moist and the virus is not exposed to excessive heat or radiation (eg UV light), the virus ABSOLUTELY will remain virulent. There are MANY environments in the USA where these conditions prevail, especially in winter season, with much less + weaker sunlight, cold temperatures, humans spending much more time indoors, etc.
"Hyperbole aside, this outbreak is fundamentally different."
Sure it's different. This time our own govt is assisting in it's spread to begin the NWO crowd's thinning of the population.
Bastards.