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Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like The Perfect 'Kondratieff Winter' Storm Ahead
The following chart-heavy presentation from Grant Williams is among his best as he wends his way methodically from the 19th century to the present day (and into the future) examining "The Consequences of the Economic Peace." From Keynes to Kondratieff and from Napoleon to Nixon, Williams looks at the ramifications of several decades of easy credit and attempts to draw parallels with a time in history when the world looked remarkably similar to how it does now (as he notes "that last time didn’t end so well, I’m afraid.") The real day of reckoning (Williams notes rather ominously), when the unconscionable level of debt that has been built up during the fiat money era finally topples over under its own weight like the giant wave in The Perfect Storm, lies ahead of us.
Authored by Grant Williams via Mauldin Economics,
...
In 1920, a year AFTER the Treaty of Versailles, a Russian economist called Nikolai Kondratieff founded something he named The Institute of Conjuncture, at which he and a team of fellow economists studied, yes, conjuncture — or business cycles, with a particular focus on the long waves they identified within those cycles.
Over the years since Kondratieff first laid out his theory on long-wave cycles, a tremendous debate has ensued as to the usefulness of such long-term prognostication; but there is one very good reason why I (and many others) believe there to be a significant advantage gained through the study of long-wave cycles...
- (Wikipedia): Long-wave theory is not accepted by most academic economists.
...
Kondratieff, being a Russian, of course took the long view.
He took Schumpeter’s four stages (expansion, crisis, recession, and recovery) and equated them to the four seasons in a year. Once he had identified what he felt to be the length of each “Spring,” “Summer,” “Autumn,” and “Winter,” Kondratieff had his “Wave;” and, as it turned out, that Wave ran for approximately 53 years.
In 1925, when he published his book The Major Economic Cycles, using existing data, Kondratieff overlaid his wave on world history and projected it forward — meaning that everything for the 89 years that followed was conjecture on his part...
How’d he do? Well, as it turns out, surprisingly well. Kondratieff nailed far too many major turns to have his work simply dismissed, and his most recent turn into Winter occurred in 2000 or, for those of you who measure the passing of time by such things, precisely at the bursting of the tech bubble.
The blue shaded area shows how far into the current Kondratieff downwave we are and — far more importantly — how much farther we have to go before things are supposed to turn around.
But what do the inner workings of a Kondratieff Winter look like? And are we in the middle of one, as a nearly 90-year-old forecast would have us believe?
Like Schumpeter’s cycles, the four seasons in a Kondratieff Wave are broken down and characterised by the phenomena usually seen during each specific phase of the full cycle.
I won’t go through all four seasons now, as we don’t have time, but rather we’ll focus on the longest phase — Winter — as it’s the one we find ourselves mired in.
And as Grant Williams goes on to describe, Kondratieff is still doing particularly well to this day...
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Winter is coming
Not to worry..., Russia has natural gas coming out their ass.
Oh..., wait.
He fucked up by missing global warming...winter has been banned/cancelled
From The Independent on 20 March 2000 we got the headline: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
Yup... economic collapse is now just a thing of the past and a down day on the market is a rare and exciting event. Different idiots same story...
Cut off the exhaust fan from Al Gore, and the rest of his ilk, and that would be good for a global 7 degree decline overall in the heat index.
When I was in college a long time ago, a fellow student presented an article for an assignment. It was K-Wave based, but had a very interested technology angle. The premise was a technology must be discovered, expanded, and eventually commoditiezed to make way for the next K-Wave. It pegged the cycles at 50 to 60 years.
Take for example, the steam engine. The first one was so big it could sink a ship, but eventually was miniaturized, through massive economic expansion, and eventually became a routine part of the economy. This was a per-requisite for rail, which was another follow on wave.
If anyone can provide links to the same or similar articles, I would really appreciated it. It finished up with computers being the most recent technology. Put that at 1950 and the K-Wave is long in the tooth.
Regards,
Cooter
you are right, thus the key for developing new economic theory is how to incorporate technological developement into the mathematical formulae.
one way of describing technology is to writedown how much human labour time does it take to produce that final item of goods (expanding into labour-time all the sub-items, transportation etc etc). Then one can describe technological advancment as decrease in labour-time required to produce that final good
I have learned about this approach in Oleg Grigoriev's Neoeconomics theory
http://neoeconomica.com/about/
It has nothing to do with technology, its use of the equation. My wording of the phases....expand, failure to expanded at the rate needed, collapse, and liquidation of the walking unfunded liabilties.
Although many things influence the size and scope of the expansion including technology, it is not the problem. Attaching interest to your medium of exchange has a limited shelf life. Of course technology will be used very efficiently during the liquidation phase this time, so many walking unfunded liabilities are going to go so fast this time.
Without using the equation, most of this technology would not exist, but nobody wants to hear about that.... ole well.... the equation always wins.
Interesting angle about tech
If computers were the last, then the next tech is obviously internet and net-based commerce
We've had internet for a while, but I guess we're still in the incubation period, apart from ranting on forums and downloading porn, internet hasn't hooked into every aspect of our lives and become as pervasive as sliced bread yet. E-commerce for example, is still just a 'nice thing' atm but not anything people can't live without yet.
obviously it goes step by step like a pyramid:
first we needed 'search' function to be the first layer, the foundation for everything to work, and a bunch of search engines puddled around for a while until Google found the magic formula
then we needed 'social ID' function, be it forums/blogs/facebook, humans as social creatures need a way to find and identify themselves in a social grouping online. though I'm not sure if facebook is the right or final formula for social ID function, personally I expect there will be a better formula for social indentity online in the future than what we have today.
then there's all the in-between building blocks, such as online-security, upgrading data speed, online-payment systems, and online-payment system is the foundation block for online commerce.
in the next 10-20 years, buying/selling stuff and accessing the net for everything daily should become more pervasive, so even though we have the infant outlines of e-commerce today, all the current e-commerce companies are still test-cases feeling around for that 'magic formula', and so far no one is sure which model is the 'right one' yet.
The 'freemium' model is a fail. Social media is frivolous and non value add.
Space man...space. That's going to be the next economic driver that actually creates real growth (talking about mining asteroids, getting water from comets, ecnomic investment into new energy technology to power ships/shuttles, perhaps that technology being used in production of energy on earth eventually instead of just space) and it will be sooner then you think, IF we don't all blow ourselves up here first during the coming winter and Ebola doesn't kill 30%+ of us.
The next technology wave could be IoT; Internet of things.
The next technology is virtually free energy. New fusion technology, both hot and cold, will dominate. There will be dragons to slay.
The oil companies are, and will, fight this new energy technology to the bitter end. Lots of blood will be spilled. Its realization will be the end of Big Oil and their Anglo-American financial empires.
We're all safe. The iPhone 6 (aka bendy) was just released. We are good for another 60 year expansion. Party on.
yep - 'long in the tooth' means we are all waiting for the 'technological singularity', or the 'nerd rapture' as it is otherwise known.
Russia recently found a shit ton a oil in the ... wait for it .. arctic. Remember who is preaching and who is profiting. And who is doing both. Follow the money.
Since that prediction the UK - including East Anglia has had 3 of the most brutaly cold winters on record. Forecasters of most `disciplines` are headline hunters. Their views are almost always wrong and often bought and paid for.
That said, Mr Kondratieff may prove to be the exception.
Mr. K. is a numerologist. the human belief in magic numbers is very old; and very disfunctional. don't waste your time on this stuff.
From The Independent on 20 March 2000 we got the headline: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
Wow, does he have snow on his face.
"winter has been banned/cancelled"
Not according to the Financial Times who quotes the IMF....
Wake up, bitchezzz....time for all rats to abandon ship!
http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/753399
.
Oh, Vlad's worrying alright. You can count on that. And who wouldn't, with falling oil prices, a falling Ruble and a failing economy? Plus, Vlad gets the added bonus of being able to borrow at the we-don't-trust-you-because-you-defaulted-in-1998 rate of almost 10%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-29/putin-ready-to-borrow-above-9-a...
Winter is the best time of the year to visit Russia (my opinion) - it's real Russia! And this winter, visitors will have the added bonus of being able to pay for it with their strong dollars.
no, it's here.
Isn't this Elliot Wave Theory bullshit? I mean, what the fuck can we induce, anymore?
Yes, it's Elliot Wave Bullshit; you just wasted your time on one more "click bait" page warmer to keep the channel advertisers happy.
What advertisers?
Winter this time will also involve large scale expropriation of your assets and income because they are not really yours. This drivel is actually not only taken seriously today, but it is increasingly becoming official government policy throughout the West. We are not in winter but at the beginning of an ice age.
DISCLAIMER:
I am not responsible if you throw your computer out the window when you read the linked article.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVoMSJ4sry8 Something you need to watch and listen to carefully. This guy is an insiders-insider and he's hugely intelligent. The interview is in plain English. The message is very clear.
From the bottom of one trough to the bottom of the next is @ 60 years.
I'd say we are a bit overdue. When this thing finallly breaks......hoo boy !
So, BTFW?
BTFF
(Buy the fucking fuck. All the other bullshit has worked. Turn those machines back on!)
hey! there ya go.
While giving a presentation upon Wallerstein I referenced a Kondratieff winter. Everyone, including the instructor, was clueless to what I referred to. It will hit hard and we are at the end of the fall...or beginning depending on your choice of words.
Not that we aren't headed for a shitstorm of unprecededented proportions, but as with all "cycle of history" theories, this is just another rendition of the government cycles, in which its excesses pile up in a toilet of its own making but with no flush mechanism. Thus, when the excrement has nowhere else to go, it spills on out onto the bathroom floor of society and putrifies it accordingly.
A free society, on the other hand, would relieve itself as a matter of course, peeing and pooping here and there, but only as the natural fertilier of its organic growth, to the greater good of all.
Excellent....well said.
For all the eCONomic no sense, it's a simple matter of adopting a supply side paradigm or a demand side one.
Supply side paradigms are inherently unsustainable fail spectacularly, demand side paradigms self-balance...
As my ZH name implies, I've been looking for the toilet handle for years.
We have a "free society", where The Elites, like always, are free to take, steal, confiscate, tax, all the wealth that has been earned by those that produce.
Our "free society" will "relieve itself as a matter of course, peeing and pooping [and bleeding] here and there" and everywhere. Lord Rothschild and his kinfolk will buy (again) as the blood is running in the streets.
The problem we have this time is the FED fucking with everything and the bottom will be much deeper because they've been actively suppressing the normal market cycle and may manage to break it completely and take us to year zero.
In the book, Keynes was highly critical of the deal struck at Versailles, which he felt sure would lead to further conflict in Europe — describing the agreement as a “Carthaginian peace” — and with the passing of a surprisingly short period of time, he would be proven correct.
Things that make you go Hmmmm...Keynes was actually right about something?
Keynes was right about many things, he was just wrong on how to fix them.
Was Keynes wrong? Or just his followers? (I only know the basics of Keynes so in practical terms - I don't know.)
We've all seen how religious texts can be twisted any which way - love turned to hate, "Give your money to the poor" replaced with "Give money to me" etc. Why do we think Economic doctrine would be any different? At least in theory, the religious have to deal with the wrath of the Almighty God. The Economists have no such regulator. The Economists only have to deal with the wraths of the Almighty Job and the Almighty Mob. Say whatever their boss wants them to say but explain it in a way that makes the crowds think the decisions are in the crowd's best interests.
From what I understand, Keynes said that the way out of a recession is to spend, and if the people have no money then the govt should spend money it doesn't have and recoup it in the next boom. Somehow this got translated to, "The banks should lend more money to everyone and to hell with how to pay it back, and never mind the interest rates". Everyone is poor so we need to lend them more money. How convenient.
Keynes advocated surplus in the good times that could be used to stimulate in the bad. We didn't do part 1 but we're trying to do part 2, thats why its a monumental fuck up waiting to happen.
Time for Schumpeter.
Or to put it in more historical terms, "save for a rainy day" and when the rainy day arrives, spend some of one's savings to survive. This is similar to what a colony of ants does.
Since the only societal "savings" that has been accumulated is the extreme wealth of the billionaires and those billionaires extracted that wealth from society's producers in better times, those are the "savings" that must be consumed during the "Rainy Day". Those billionaires acquired their "savings" through a multitude of mechanisms, both legal and otherwise, of wealth transfer from the producers' savings.
The billionaires, of course, aren't too happy with this philosophy. They'd rather use their billions to buy up the rest of the world's assets at "rainy day" prices and ensure the rained-upon become their slaves in the ensuing serfdom.
The billionaires have many sock-puppets blaring their misleading messages to an unsuspecting proletariat through many venues, this one included. They also employ many politicians and armed thugs to protect their loot.
The billionaire ( and a lot of other people ) haven't yet realized that if you want to make a hundred dollars per week then you need one hundred customers, each with a spare dollar per week.
Now the billionaires have access to the magic money machine, they'll never work it out.
Being an Austrian economics advocate myself, while I love a Keynes-bashing fest with the best of them, it should be pointed out in fairness that practically everything that's been labeled Keynesian in the past 50 years has gone so far past what he proposed that they're disgracing his name. The most glaring point of all would be that he advocated counter-cyclical intervention on both sides of the business cycle. When's the last time the government cut spending during the boom times?
TPTB are making Keynes the fall guy for crony capitalism and corruption, while using his name to justify the very policies that result in crony capitalism and corruption.
I agree, its not Keynes we have now, its Krugman economics....
This is about 16minutes, and classic Krugman ownage.
Paul Krugman schooled by Austrian School Economist Pedro Schwartzabsolutely, seek, i sometimes feel Tyler fails to make that distinction between Keynes actual theory/views and those his present day 'acolytes' find convenient to emphasise
No wonder that all the interventionists' bullshit is marked as keynesian. It makes as much sense as the logic of Keynes' books. When I used to read the General Theory I was astonished how ad-hoc made-up bullshit was his reasoning based upon. He just picked some events out of the complex market mechanism and went on bashing it without further explanations. The liquidity gap is a great example.
Since then all those post- and neo-keynesians have been making up theories like crazy, what's worse they put mathematics (!!!) into it to give it a feeling of science.
Banksters have been financing this bullshit over decades for their own good.
Keynesian has become synonymous with any and all economic intervention and even economic central planning. In that general sense, I would agree. Keynes did advocate that at virtually all phases of an economy including countervention. What seems to differ are the techniques or even degrees. Keynes would certainly be much more conservative economically than the world we see today but he laid the basis for central planning with the essential ideas that governments can and should control the "commanding heights" of an economy. We could argue that communism has not really been done according to Marx, as well and that he is disgraced by how things have turned out. Yet, I would make essentially the same argument. Marx laid the foundation and the reality turns out very differently than predicted.
The Austrians have it right and are proven out over time.
He was definitely right about that; but unfortunately, he was something of a Hitler jock sniffer. Those Statists really all do belong to the same club, you know.
Thank you.
I looked into Kondratiev in 2008-2009 when my IRA's and "investments" lost 60% (and they were conservative).
It made a whole hell of a lot of sense. Poor Kondratiev was executed by Stalin and the Central Planners in 1938.
This is why Paul Krugman is lauded and Ron Paul marginalized in the U.S.A.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Kondratiev
I turn a jaundiced eye toward anyone that sees economics as anything more than a very select few individuals deciding the fate of the many via the power of "money" creation. Anything beyond this is the smoke and mirrors we call Economics.
Not even close. Economics at its core is primarily aggregate human behavior with regards to trade.
That's what it's supposed to be. That's not what it is any longer.
In fact, I'll go even further and postulate that Economics has become the science of obfuscation, its multitudinous facets glaring so blindingly that nothing beyond its surface can be seen, nothing deeper than the five o'clock wrap-up packaged for the masses.
OKay, I will meet you halfway on that. That is essentially a subset of a centrally planned and controlled economy. If you want to say that "they" use disinformation, I will agree. Lying warps economic results but does not repeal them.
In time I came to see Economics as the scientific version of Religion.
You want to live life in harmony with God, your fellow man and the rest of the universe? You got religion.
Take out God and you've got Economics. Err, maybe you need to take out God and the rest of the Universe and then you've got Economics.
Economics: seeking to find the best way to distribute limited resources amongst unlimited wants and needs. What could possibly go wrong? Why do we get surprised that the Powers That Be would seek to corrupt such a "science"? We've all seen the undoing of the preachers on TV. And they supposedly feared God. Economists have no such fear. They only have to fear the one that signs their paycheck ...
Economics even has a form of "grace" -- money printing. It' s interesting those who reject a god are quick to embrace a paradigm that requires every bit as much "faith". "Narrow is the road"-- like 1% wide.
Interesting...nikkei only up 93 pts...curious.
Stalin had more divisions than kondratieff. And had him killed for his writings.But 30 yrs of declining intrest rates is over.. Which is like a t 34 or m18 tank fire in your ass.to the her krugmans of the world. Ps to the one who down voted me they will come for you and bring more than thier dog
THe Fourth Turning
It's cold now. Winter this year is going to be very cold.
The only reason we aren't at the bottom of the canyon of a Kondrieteff winter is the Fed's powers of illusion. Picture Wile E. Coyote spinning his feet in the air above the abyss. THAT'S where we are.
If a man lives beyond his means, and cannot pay back his debts, but the repo-men have not yet taken his house, car etc, is he still bankrupt?
Yep, that could be the reason. Or it could be that Kondratieff himself had no reason to believe that the Dutch tulip would reappear in the 20th century disguised as a derivative.
Or that a man could walk down the street and talk to a small hand-held device, who could tell him where the nearest 'Gents" was, how many cubicles it had, how many were being used and who was using them.
Or that a central bank could issue as much fiat in 5 years than it had in the previous 90 years.
Oh, but that's what you said
This could be the Kondratieff Winter to end all Kondratieff Winters.
Wow! Shibor rates are blowing out! Overnight SHIBOR Interest rate fixes at 2.5623% vs. Prev. 2.5400% (+
I'm the dumb one here, so I'll bite.
What the hell does that mean?
it means the perceived risk of lending money in/to china is rapidly increasing. I think.
You're correct. Shibor is the equivalent to the london "ponzi" libor rate fixing.
ShangHai InterBank Offered Rate
yes, with overnight lending rates ultimately breaking the markets....libor is manipulated, is shibor? if not, how long will it take to get it manipulated...(words from yellen).
Nice. the kitten has its paws tangled in the knitting wool ball, alright. anyone want to volunteer to put it all back nice and round and tight again?
Tyler, bring back the Kuomo (sic) Wave, or Break, or whatever the hell that thing was from a couple of years ago.
Q: What do you get when you cross a Hindenberg Omen with a Kondratieff Winter?
A: Don't know, but when the damn thing blows up you get a one way ticket to San Diego.
Why on earth everybody is worried about winter?! The earth is warming!
Relax and have a cool one.
Forget these people! Hey they're all dead. Enjoy life, it's our play and no one else knows it's ending. LIVE LIKE YOU WANT; LOVE MORE AND MORE; F&*K THE DOOMED!
I second the notion.
Can't. I'm addicted to ZH. I'm a zombie now.
Save yourself while/if you still can.
In my defence, I wasn't doing too well before I got here, but I no longer believe that is a good "excuse".
Don't worry, MMT is running the show and will save the day.
If the economy was healthy and balanced we would not be experiencing slow growth while massive amounts of money are being printed and poured into the system. The crux of our problem remains in the fact that both people and governments have lived beyond their means by taking on debt they cannot repay. Over the last several decades we have created entitlement societies built on the back of the industrial revolution, technological advantages, capital accumulated from the colonial era, and the domination of global finances.
Promises were made on the assumption that the advantages we enjoyed would continue in both Europe and the US. Ever greater prosperity and entitlements were to be sustained through debt financed consumption growth. In that eerie fantasy world, debt fueled consumption was to be the catalyst to bring about evermore growth. Debt does matter and the following article delves deeper into why kicking the can down the road will ultimately fail.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/08/modern-monetary-theory-is-wrong-d...
I'm thinking it really is different this time. First, let me state that I hate the "system" or whatever you want to call it. It's some form of deranged political-economic experiment. What I think makes it different is people have been dumbed down so much, they have been so conditioned to accept what they watch on TV and the internet and read in various forms of print media (if they can read), that they can't rationally think about the "system" and the implications it has on their lives. Not only that, we have so much crap info coming at us from all directions, it is almost impossible to discern the truth from fiction. I know I can't. All I can do is go with what makes sense to me.
I'm starting to believe the "system" isn't going to crash and that the gate keepers of the system will continue to keep it going indefinitely. All of these crash predictions do not take into account the present day lack of awareness of the workings of the system. History is useful for predicting future events, but there is this major new variable in the equation that we have not had before. I have to assume at this point that the fed is directly buying stocks in secret outside of the QE program. Algo's might do they buying and selling, but somone is transferring 0's and 1's into an account to keep the stock market afloat. It is the perfect game and they are winning and we are losing. I don't even know who the winners re. Who is pulling the stings? Rothchilds? Rockefellers? Any of the other usual NWO suspects? What frustrates me more than anything is waking up day after day after day and watching the system sink deeper into lunacy but yet it will not break. The crazier it gets, the more powerful it gets and the more people are indifferent to it. I'm getting tired of waiting for the collapse. I thought after 2008 it was game over. Six years later and there are no longer consequences for the banks or politicians who enable this mess.
Fuck it. I'm going to bed.
I totally feel your pain and have lived with many of the same thoughts and feelings, as have many others who are awake. But it will end, that much you can be sure. They can continue to control most of the variables within their sphere of influence but they cannot control the human element.
I suspect the trigger will be something completely out of left field. One would think a default of the COMEX or something logical within the markets, but a I have a feeling it will truly be something so innocently overlooked that starts the cascade. When it happens I will weep in both pain and joy because I know there will be blood and death to many innocent people while at the same time giving us a chance to live within the truth again.
TPTB will not relent nor will they repent, so the fight must ensue. Good vs. Evil, Right vs. Wrong, the Truth against Lies. History (and the past) will be decided by the winner. May God be on our side.
I like your versions better than "Brucewilds"!
Day to day is easy. It's those big decisions, buying a house, car, dog, country vs city, that makes this fucking ball of lies so frustrating. And you're right, the dumbasses just wanna watch football.
A reply from BruceWilds.------- Hell I even like "his version" better than mine. many of us are frustrated to the point we could we can hardly go on as year after year TPTB continue to pull rabbits out of their hats. Sadly unlike politicians and bankers numbers don't lie and we all should be prepared. Being frustrated and tired of waiting for the system to crash doesn't change the ending.
---------------- ----------------- -------------------
What I like about numbers is that when they are not jockeyed, jerked around, and falsified they tend to tell the truth. Looking down the road the numbers do not work. Sometimes the old guys like Allen Meltzer who have seen it all have the most perspective and the guts to speak up because they have less to lose.
Allen H Meltzer is viewed by many economist as America’s foremost expert in monetary policy, Meltzer is the author of the three-volume “A History of the Federal Reserve.” For over 25 years he was the chair of the Shadow Open Market Committee, a group that meets regularly to discuss the policy of the Federal Reserve. “We’re in the biggest mess we’ve been in since the 1930s,” he recently stated. “We’ve never had a more problematic future.” More on his thoughts in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/it-will-all-end-badly.html
"But it will end, that much you can be sure."
Not sure I agree with that Armed. This will not fail and collapse in any sense for most of those who currently run and manipulate this blue-pill farce. It will simply reset. It seems likely to crash on most of the rest of us. Then, we will be manipulated into fighting each other over largely irrelevant matters so that there will be an enormous vacuum for order, security, and "peace" at virtually any price. And that price will be high, indeed.
That said, I hope I'm wrong and that you are right.
This is where a 'black swan' event will come to be and will change everyone's perceptions.....something like Ebola, where everyone will see the .gov is openly lying to them about all facets of their lives....it will only take a few more people 'waking up' and the system will be in trouble. TPTB know this and are using every bit of power they have to keep control. Anyone that knows about 'process controls' knows that if you are operating continously near the boundaries of your control limits, all you need is one small upset and you will be outside of the boundaries...aka, out of control. For our system, when this happens it will most likely break completely and will run sharply out of control.
Repudiation of debt. Fuck Yeah. I have student loans just begging me to take them.
Hey I didn't catch the part about the central banks connecting their computers directly into the financial markets and controlling them with software that is supplied with infinite fiat. Tell that Willians dude to get back to work.
Rise in gold price in winter? When gold was fixed?
Kondratiev's ideas were not supported by the Soviet government. Subsequently he was sent to the gulag and was executed in 1938.[3][4]
I have a theory, markets cycle....sorry comrade we don't agree.
They agreed with the Fed, way ahead of their time.
O/T:
Former CIA Officer: We Have Traitors Running The US Gov't, False Flag Is A Deep Part Of The American Gov'tThis is another great rear-view mirror essay by Williams. But after finishing it, somehow the great old Jethro Tull lyrics run in my head (reminds me of global CB policies!!):
<< We'll go walking out
while others shout of war's disaster.
Oh, we won't give in,
let's go living in the past. >>
What I would love to see is a discussion more about the only forward reference (SPOILER ALERT) where Williams quotes his buddy Grice:
<< “If you’ve had… an unprecedented credit INflation, you WILL have an unprecedented credit DEflation” >>
OK a little more on this plz?
"that Wave ran for approximately 53 years"
lets get serious, the causes of the wave like behaviour are real - the schumpeter's explanation.
the period of 53 years is an accidental number which can vary greatly
lets study the causes not the numerics
the mathemization of economics ahs its uses but history is irrefutable. attaching the math to history as this article does is a great cycle tracker.
So the economists who almost always wrong on everything...like Krudman (that weasel faced prick with a NWO agendaed - Ignoble Prize), discredit Kondratieff because???
[Discussion of inflation]
>>>
...does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose
<<<
Not really true any more.
Whether or not you believe state-produced statistics are produced honestly, they (and private statistics) are produced, published and _influence elections_.
The problem is much more that inflation is regarded by those in authority as a lesser evil than deflation, so policy (in as much as policy controls anything) is biased to produce inflation.
In fact, the surprising thing to me is that, despite extensive central purchases of government debt itself issued on multi-year terms to finance expenditure over just one year, we seem to have much _less_ inflation than I would have expected.
I _think_ this is a technology issue: the true marginal cost of manufactured goods is much _less_ than generally thought, so to keep market share when demand falls, manufacturers can and do just cut prices.
Agricultural products, of course, are long-term too high and thus permanently at risk of collapse - the long term result of extensive farming subsidies.
Watson
Great article. At the core it's all about the soundness of money.
Looks pretty close to a bottom to me.... BTFD.
no yobs no economy ... on a global basis..... revolution and chaos..... russia is next
The winter of our discontent?
Bbbrrrrrfrrrrrrrrrrrr.!
The central banks and the money masters have learned a lot in the last decades.
2008 would have been the later arrival of the Kondratieff Winter, but they managed to avoid it.
So the latest Kondratieff cycle will be a bit longer. How much longer? Who knows. But do not forget: being prepared and having an insurance policy is good. But in trading and investing being early is being wrong.
Interestingly, Kondratieff did his study over the period where the banking families' control over the western economies was firmly in place. This control was finalized in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve.
Therefore, what he's actually plotted was the Rothschilds' pattern of boom and bust. He assumed it was a natural business phenom, when in fact it was their contraction and expansion (inflation and deflation) of the various money supplies.
While very interesting it doesn't mean that they can't change their pattern if they chose to do so.
"Therefore, what he's actually plotted was the Rothschilds' pattern of boom and bust. He assumed it was a natural business phenom, when in fact it was their contraction and expansion (inflation and deflation) of the various money supplies."
I read recently that in Biblical days debts among jews were forgiven every 7 years. We have a thing we now call the business cycle, which runs about 7 years. There was also a thing called the year of Jubille, which was a 50 year event, which would roughly correspond to Kondratieff Winter projection of 50+ years.
As was said in Ecclesiasties, there is nothing new under the Sun. Which means it predates the Rothschilds.
Cycles repeat.
Cycles Rule.
Did I miss the opening ceremony for the Kondratieff Winter Olymics Games?
What events will there be? The S&P Downhill Slalom? The Liquidity Luge? Unaudited Dubious Mixed Figure Skating?
I'm off to practice for my event - the Kondratieff Winter Biathlon - which involves fleeing on skis while laying down rifle fire to discourage pursuit by one's creditors.
I had been stockpiling gold medalions that commemorate earlier games, but I lost them in an unfortunate ice fishing misadventure.
Knowledge of the cycles by humans changes the cycles .
This has already happened.
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/01/plunge-protectors.html
But it doesn't change the cycles of Nature, which is why the sun is so 'quiet', and which shows up in nearly every chart that shows the parabolic rise in cometary activity, volanic activity, large EQs, sinkholes etc. If you've been watching those Birkeland currents you have an idea why things seem quiet with the sun. If you've heard NASA report quietly how many 'brown dwarfs' they're finding in our galaxy, then you know why our sun seems so quiet and have an idea of what will most likely follow when our twin passes by and fades out of view, leaving the stage to all the players to follow. As Betty said: "Hang on, it's gonna be a bumpy ride".
IS THIS US?
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
The Great Recession of 2007 ushered in the worst economic event since the Great Depression of 1929. The Great Depression occurred almost 80 years before the sub-prime bubble burst.
Kondratieff predicted a cycle of 60 years. If you compare apples to apples and great events to great events, then we are in an 80 year supercycle awaiting the last leg -- the Kondratieff Winter.
Did the $18 trillion borrowed by the Treasury borrowed, beginning in 1981 under Ronald Reagan, lengthen the cycle.?
How much was the printing of trillions of dollars of currency, which was delivered to the banks in 2009 electronically and not by armored trucks for people to see, responsible.
Or was it something as simple as the invention of the computer?
If a Kondratieff Winter is put off by economic artifice, when it does arrive will it be nippier?
I haven't gotten around to watching "Perfect Storm" yet. Thanks for trashing the ending, Grant.