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Saxobank CIO On The End Of US Dominance
Authored by Steen Jakobsen, CIO Saxobank, via TradingFloor.com,
- Tensions and volatility inevitable as world redefines itself
- China and Russia forming powerful anti-US alliance
- Potential for geopolitics to become core to risk assessment/return
World Order is the title of the latest book by Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, and it's riveting stuff. Kissinger draws on his deep experience of decades of shaping foreign policy and observing the complex interactions between nations and ideologies to develop a timely analysis of the world and where it's heading.
Some of Kissinger's central themes are drawn out in an interview with Charlie Rose in Bloomberg Businessweek.
A key concept is that the world goes through frequent cycles of redefinition and these periods mean increased tensions and higher volatility. China and Russia are now forming a strong anti-US and anti-dollar alliance. This alliance is expanding in magnitude and impact as China increases its presence not only in Africa but also in Club Med via infrastructure investments.
The new world order means less US dominance, a gradual weakening of reserve currency advantages and trade areas away from from Europe and the US. Add to this the much-needed fight against radical Islamism and we have a potential for geopolitical risk finally becoming part of risk assessment and return.
Kissinger says that the current era is one of the most chaotic periods of which he is aware. Every part of the world is redefining itself, some internally—like China, and some externally.
"The European system hasn’t dominated the world; it’s been abandoned in Europe. And the US is moving into a new period in which the dominance enjoyed in the immediate postwar period economically is no longer there. On the other hand, we are still the central element in creating a new order. Without our participation, it’s difficult to see how a new system can emerge in most parts of the world."
That's the essence of Kissinger's argument as presented in Businessweek but I would encourage you to read both the interview and, of course, the book itself.
Finally, let me add a chart from a recent presentation of mine:
End of US Supremacy?
* * *
Which looks a lot like the one we presented here (via Deutsche Bank) where we concluded:
The geopolitical consequences of the diminishment of US global dominance
Each of these events has shown America’s unwillingness to take strong foreign policy action and certainly underlined its unwillingness to use force. America’s allies and enemies have looked on and taken note. America’s geopolitical multiplier has declined even as its relative economic strength has waned and the US has slipped backwards towards the rest of the pack of major world powers in terms of relative geopolitical power.
Throughout this piece we have looked to see what we can learn from history in trying to understand changes in the level of structural geopolitical tension in the world. We have in general argued that the broad sweep of world history suggests that the major driver of significant structural change in global levels of geopolitical tension has been the relative rise and fall of the world’s leading power. We have also suggested a number of important caveats to this view – chiefly that a dominant superpower only provides for structurally lower geopolitical tensions when it is itself internally stable. We have also sought to distinguish between a nation being an “economic” superpower (which we can broadly measure directly) and being a genuine “geopolitical” superpower (which we can’t). On this subject we have hypothesised that the level of a nations geopolitical power can roughly be estimated multiplying its relative economic power by a “geopolitical multiplier” which reflects that nations ability to amass and project force, its willingness to intervene in the affairs of the world and the extent of its “soft power”.
Given this analysis it strikes us that today we are in the midst of an extremely rare historical event – the relative decline of a world superpower. US global geopolitical dominance is on the wane – driven on the one hand by the historic rise of China from its disproportionate lows and on the other to a host of internal US issues, from a crisis of American confidence in the core of the US economic model to general war weariness. This is not to say that America’s position in the global system is on the brink of collapse. Far from it. The US will remain the greater of just two great powers for the foreseeable future as its “geopolitical multiplier”, boosted by its deeply embedded soft power and continuing commitment to the “free world” order, allows it to outperform its relative economic power. As America’s current Defence Secretary, Chuck Hagel, said earlier this year, “We (the USA) do not engage in the world because we are a great nation. Rather, we are a great nation because we engage in the world.” Nevertheless the US is losing its place as the sole dominant geopolitical superpower and history suggests that during such shifts geopolitical tensions structurally increase. If this analysis is correct then the rise in the past five years, and most notably in the past year, of global geopolitical tensions may well prove not temporary but structural to the current world system and the world may continue to experience more frequent, longer lasting and more far reaching geopolitical stresses than it has in at least two decades. If this is indeed the case then markets might have to price in a higher degree of geopolitical risk in the years ahead.
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So, what he is saying is America is fucked. Next!
But we now have ebola and gay marriage so all is good.
Saxo bank?
Who are these people? and why do they always get the space to put their views forrwad? Last time I checked there were about 5000 US Banks .... i am sure they got smt to say as well ... why they dont get published at all???
Well, a clever idea would be to google up Saxo Bank and read all about it; it's pretty impressive.
I don't understand why they did not continue the line attributed to the British empire? They stop having GDP when they lost the leading role? Impossible to total up the players that make up the empire?
It just muddies the waters in an uneeded fashion...
because if they did, they would have, just to be complete, include the GDP of the... European Union? And if you insert there the GDP of either the eurozone or the EU... then the whole narrative is quite lost, basing dominance on GDP alone. The real "power graph" would have to involve trade, and would muddle this narrative even more
Thanks for the reply. That seems obvious, after your post. Plus the ability to derive growth "as if we were not a member of the EU" would have a lot of *s and might not be to peoples liking, espcially for those feeding rather than benefiting from the beast.
i am sure they are a player ... no doubt about it if the guy is recommending for people to buy the book...
i would like to see the "competition" those 5000 other US banks gets some time as well .... too much to ask... perhaps
A bank you probably did not have to bail out - though if you are an American - you are still bailing out other European banks.
#11 15 years ago, China was 14th in the world in published scientific research articles. But now, China is expected to pass the United States and become number one very shortly.
#12 China is also expected to soon become the global leader in patent filings.
#13 China awards more doctoral degrees in engineering each year than the United States does.
#14 China has the world’s fastest train and the world’s most extensive high-speed rail network.
#16 Today, China produces nearly twice as much beer as the United States does.
#19 China is now the number one producer of wind and solar power on the entire globe.
#22 China now produces 11 times as much steel as the United States does.
#23 China controls over 90 percent of the total global supply of rare earth elements.
Whatever, not very impressive really. They have the largest population, good to know. Too bad they oppress 85% of it, detain civil rights leaders left and right, have pollution out the ass, have very little fresh water, and having them produce and refine rare earth elements and steel is great for US. Its like both offshoring our pollution and lowering the price of commodities.
Sorry to say this, but countries aren't powerful by production, engineering degrees, patents, etc. They are powerful through economic means, which US clearly has the most of by far.
I would only start getting worried if the largest banks were run by the Chinese (they are not. dont forget we measure our banks according to GAAP not IFRS like China)
Oh and China, because they have a firm grip on all media, essentially have blacked out the world on their true GDP outputs. Remember the gold fiasco? That could be is everywhere.
I would only start getting worried if the largest banks were run by the Chinese
- Then you are not a planner. You can't think Strategically.
See my post below on how I think the US is still a Super Power and everything is going according to someones plan.
It really is quite entertaining to watch zerohedge trolls diss China. Every year they get stronger and stronger, and every year the west gets weaker and weaker. Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
Silver For The People
"#11 15 years ago, China was 14th in the world in published scientific research articles. But now, China is expected to pass the United States and become number one very shortly." ---
before you get too excited, I suggest that you have a look at the rate of retraction of all those "sound" publications. We have hosted several exchange students from China when my kids were younger. They admit that "cheating is expected in China, it's only getting caught is dishonorable".
So, I guess they are like Greek Universities.
You probably have seen the people in Asia work. They study hard and speak more than one language. I heard they are good at math and technology. Engineers seem to respect them compared to our tattooed kids, butt cracks, fat, watch TV, and look like Zombies.
But Generalizations get us all into trouble. Like our Biases and our cognitive distortions.
I didn't inject my opinion by posting part of a list.
#11 -Again loads of cr@p that isn't peer reviewed and I know that anything that comes out of their from the medical community is taken with a grain of salt and rightly so given the lack of transparency and clear peer review.
#12 - As screwed up as the US patent system is with trolls and the lenghty time and cost it takes to get improved it still light years ahead of the Chinese patent system
#13 - Yeah although you can say the same thing about India too. Maybe 10% of those are actually functionally useful and would get strong consideration for hire in the US and other places. What it does though is continue to place global pressure on wages downwards although any company that puts there R&D in China is ridiculous given the stipulations and reality that it will be stolen, reverse engineered, and put out by a Chinese firm in 5 years.
#14 - One area where China has been much, much smarter than the US and building a system that will inevitably better serve them in the 21st century
#16 - Who cares.
#19 - I would need to see the figures but no surprise here. More interested to see what the price is though and what consumers pay though per kw/hr
#22 - They have a huge oversupply glut and a lot of this is still state-supported firms. Going to be a real issue to continue to support such overcapacity and a costly one too
#23 - Yeah this matters
Ha ha! Yeah, gay marriage... when will the gays learn they already have the best of both worlds. Allow gay marriage and then you'll be expected to get married... and enjoy "marriage" for the rest of your lives. Oh, and when it doesn't work out, one of your gay asses will be out a ton of net worth and be forced to pay 'gay-amony' to support your former gay partner and his/her new gay lover. Marriage is the most ridiculous scam going these days. More and more are recognizing this... save for the gays that seem to love it.
So, beware for what youre fighting... you just might get it.
I tried to explain these things to the people asking for signatures on gay marriage. They don't care. It makes them "equal" if they can get married. Retards...
Best investment is to buy a politician. Against American interests the political class accepted China into the WTO. Walmart owned the Clintons, Walmart wanted cheap Chinese shit. Voila, the country is sold down the river.
As I've noted before, I'm kinda queer for Saxo Bank. They really stand out above the others. They have a wonderful on-line trading platform; if anyone is interested in that sort of thing; and their analysts actually get some things right sometimes; which is almost unheard of in big Bank World.
pimping stawks again? or playing in the casino?
You could have just stopped at "queer". Just sayin'...
markets might have to price in a higher degree of geopolitical risk in the years ahead.
Impossible. US Markets, UK Markets, EU Markets, China Markets... they are all addicted Gamblers.
It is a game about Winning. And picking the new Loser.
Exactly. Risks? What are those? It's all about the scam. There's no risk when you keep the profits and "socialize" the losses.
America keeps winning by default because there are still no real alternatives. Russia? A joke. China? An epic house of cards.
Also: Dem governor's fiance once "married" 18-year-old Ethiopian immigrant - http://tinyurl.com/lay6umx
You're right. No one seems to be taking advantage of America's missteps. China could if they get their act together.
His name was Fonzannoon.
?
Word is he's been banned. But I don't know why. Anyone...?
I would imagine that he offended TPTB at ZH. If so, one of the "Tylers" must be a very sensitive and temperamental types, because a few of us are unable to determine the "just cause", only "probable cause".
Well if Dr. NWO says it, then it must be true.
What if this entire theatre of 2008, QE, the FED failing, and US going communist is nothing but the means to convince Americans to let go of the dream of being the world leader?
Nobody is trying to convince people of anything else except that the welfare state FDR construct is untenable to the eyes of the new post WW2 Oligarchs who run the US like a warring, arrogant elite since Aldous Huxley day events and Nam war began.
the theatre of 2008 was theatre of the absurd. And that play is not over.
But as this article says, its going downhill like the old Crusaders did back in the Middle Ages.
We copied them in our GWB type neocon hubris and now we, the western nations collectively, pay the same price for trying to protect our ill earned Oil wealth, all based on false "free world ideology smoke and mirrors". Only, its not just ruined the world ecologically its ruined our economy as well.
Dear Henry who made the Pax Americana ME/Global construct, as the Clintonian/Squid Larry Summers cabal that revoked Gl-Steagall, know their work cannot live on, whence the Monday morning quarterbacking (and subsequent finger pointing to others who didn't get the big game message) to try salvage their own place in History. Lame ducks.
Going "communist" as practiced in Venezuela is about as irrelevant to this theatre as going "Nero-fiddling while Rome burns" is relevant. The private oligarchs, the 1% of private sector, run the State.
The new, increasing lumpenproletariat of USA is not the people this administration defends, either in name or in acts. Even if they be part of the Walmart dumb-job queue line, they are not citizens with full rights as they are hocked in debt; collectively and some individually.
Unless by communist you mean going totalitarian like in top down "don't fuck around" regimes. In which case its spot on target.
But in USA the citizen can vote...so if it lasts, its a result of his own allegiance to this state of (dis) union.
Something that is not true in China or Russia or elsewhere in non democracies.
People define their borders and the "order" as it were. Remind us Mr. Kissinger, what percentage of the world's population is American or 100% dedicated to the well-being of America? Technology can certainly sway the power of certain groups, but technology, especially in the absence of constant reinvestment in R&D, is one thing that does eventually "trickle down".
Kissinger says that the current era is one of the most chaotic periods of which he is aware.
**Yeah, he should know, He caused most of it!!#@$#
I think Per Capita would be a better graph to get a more clear picture. China is about to surpass US in total GDP but has 4 times as many people. Not impressed.
Also, in terms of power, this doesn't take into account Military. GDP production can be reduced pretty quickly with a strong Military. In this case, Russia may be more of a leader than China.
"This is not to say that America’s position in the global system is on the brink of collapse. Far from it."
Name a time in history where one superpower was replaced by another without a major disruption and collapse.
Exactly Doc. The problem is the next war may well be with nukes. I guess they will turn the planet into a parking lot and let the correct God or religion sort it out.
China has its own problems along with Russia. Until the dollar for oil games comes undone nothing will really change. Countries are indeed moving to undo it but do you think the USA will sit back and allow it to all happen?
The reality of the situation is, Kissinger is unhappy we are not doing Israels bidding so we are no longer a super power. Although this administration is moving to do all it can to support Israel with the new bombing campaign using the ISIS flag.
I do not like to sabre rattle but no matter how the USA aproaches war with its new Air and Naval toys and the media speaking about how great they are doing, no amount of bombs will hold or stop anything. To control the ground you must indeed place ground troops there to hold it. I know I have seen this type of campaign in war and all the enemy does is hunker down like humans have done in two wars and come out when they are done to move around any way they like, drones be damned.
Right now just like before 911 the USA thinks its new toys will settle confrontations and it will not. They only make more people that want to kill Americans.
This system will collapse when someone releases a nuke on someone.
The wars might have started over a decade ago.
If you are expecting an all out war, that might not happen and it will just be a slow disintegration of the world political and economical structure.
From Thread First US is still a Super Power it is just that China is an Economic Super Power also. I posted a list of other strengths of China above.
We had a 45 Year Cold War which not only built weapons arsenal and secured advanced technology... it also taught the US how to Wield Financial Power and Establish a world wide network of influence... we can roll the War on Drugs underneath this.
I'm not saying anything you don't know.
But we have been making big moves globally since 1993 in line with the Corporate Expansion for global Energy & Engineering Business & Resources... which may have started in the 1960s.
We started the Chaos in the Middle East which makes it our mess... but it seems like it serves both the US, Israel, UK, & Europe (NATO).
I think it is going all according to plan!! Except Cheney & Rumsfeld could not deliver peace & good Commerce in Iraq. They just didn't deliver.
Collapse will come.
But it will not play out as people today imagine. No great-power collapse in all history has played out as expected.
Hence, I doubt that Russia/China will turn out as expected. They'd have to break a multi-millenia trend to emerge as dominant.
FURTHERMORE, the Russian and Chinese governmental systems, the recent Russian foreign seizure law for example, are not conducive to attracting foreign capital or talent.
So, the more people declare Russia/China as the emerging winner, the more I expect the card actually dealt is The Joker.
I'm not sure Russia and China will be able to form a strong Anti-US alliance. They both have unfavorable demographics. Their economies and political systems are not highly attractive to immigrants or global elite workers. Given that backdrop, it sounds more like a weak anti-US alliance.
Given this analysis it strikes us that today we are in the midst of an extremely rare historical event – the relative decline of a world superpower
Did we expect anything less from Bathhouse Barry?
IMF: Chinese Economy Surpasses U.S.
The debate about when China will oust the United States as the world’s top economy has been all over the place, with recent estimates ranging from one to five years, as opposed to projections of one or two decades not that long ago. Now the International Monetary Fund says China has already zoomed ahead. The IMF, which in the spring calculated new exchange rates for comparing output of different economies, estimates the size of the U.S. economy in 2014 is $17.4 trillion, while China’s comes in at $17.6 trillion. The speed of the transformation is breathtaking: As recently as 2005, China’s economy was less than half the size of America’s. Moreover, the IMF projects that China’s economy will be 20 percent bigger than that of the U.S. by 2019.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/10/08/imf-china-passes-u-s-as-b...
Actually Nixon's moves jump out to me when you look at the graphs. especially of China's in relation to the US.
umm...kinda looks like the main part of the recent decline started in 2000 or thereabouts. And, not that i'm a fan of Obama, but it looks like the overall decline started after 1950. He's just continuing what every president for the last 50-60 years has been part of or contributed to.
My take on this article: a wounded animal is very, very dangerous
Whos Crazy Bastards are more aggressive and Machiavellian?
- USA, UK, Canada, Australia
- Or China & Russia
Here in the USA, we don't even pretend to be uncorrupted or Peaceful... We have so many Psychos I can't believe we haven't nuked someone in this Century.
FFS we have nude people in liquor stores, in the streets, and trying to eat other people in our parks.
Is the US a wounded animal and if so how severe are the wounds? An overlooked question is are Russia and China becoming cornered animals?
China has done well in developing and investing in resources in other countries. Resources the US/Israel/UK do not like them controlling. China moves look good if you believe in the respect for the laws and morality and all that. If events are looked at differently, who is getting set to control the important oil producing countries in the ME and north Africa? And how have they done that, by respecting laws, rights and life?
The US/Israel/UK can do the same (and more than once) in the countries that China has heavily invested in. Destroy the country, install a puppet govt., get the govt to remove China or void all China's legal standing to the resources and investments. Then have the puppet's open to doors for direct US control of those same resources.
China and Russia do not align as strongly as US/Israel/UK. India is just an associate. The other countries who join Russia in the war on the dollar better be prepared to get little real commitment from Russia when the US begins taking them out economically one at a time just as the US has done to other militarily. Failure to meet this fight head on, from Iraq2 and since, as a cohesive force will put the opponents of the US at a great disadvantage as the economic war get hotter. The strongest countries that could have aligned with Russia, and who could have influenced others to do so, have been destroyed (other than Iran).
And that does not mean the dollar avoids troubles.
The US is self destructing without a doubt.
HOWEVER, the rush to declare Russia/China's emergent victory is EXTREMELY premature.
Russia passed a law 255-to-202 to seize 'foreign-owned' assets in order to compensate Russian Citizens whose assets are seized in an 'illegal foreign court action'.
Q: Which foreign courts actions are illegal in Russia?
A: All of them.
Q: What conclusive record does the Russian Government have of Russian Citizen's foreign holdings, that have been or could be seized?
A: None.
Q: Could a Russian INTENTIONALLY cross the border, commit a crime (from Jaywalking to murder) and then (presuming they get back to Russia) petition the Russian government for a piece of a formerly foreign asset, REGARDLESS of whether they'd ACTUALLY lost anything in the foreign country? For instance, could they go over the border and INTENTIONALLY STEAL something, and then when the STOLEN ITEM is taken from them, petition for redress from the Russian government?
A: Yes they could. And I expect a certain class of unscrupulous Russians to do exactly that: Cross a border, do something to generate a foreign court case, and then use the court case ITSELF as evidence of foreign asset seizure.
So how does this play out?
Every foreign company has just been notified that their assets will be seized. EVERY FOREIGN ASSET IN RUSSIA.
Why not sell them to Russians today, and just take a haircut vs a total loss?
Oh...and because of Putin's currency controls, the sale will BE REQUIRED to be in foreign currency.
So... You are going to have a lot of Russians selling rubles to buy foreign currency for the purpose of buying foreign-owned assets in Russia at a bargain price.
Demand for foreign currency UP, UP, WAY UP.
Demand for Rubles in Russia DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.
The Ruble is going to crash because of Putin's economic ignorance.
What of the Currency swaps with China then? Why would they continue to accept a currency that is crashing?
MAJOR BLUNDER, and TOTALLY caused within Russia.
shil moron troll.
Nice names you give while running with the herd.
If you cant take some logical criticism then why don't you sit down to a nice relaxing cup of "Shut the Fuck Up".
You think I am trolling for the US while criticizing them?
You think I don't know what is going on in Russia?
You don't even know who Pelageya chose on Goloc last night.
Hey soldier-boy johnny, did you not have enough "shut the fuck up" in the cups I have served you in the past?
Do you want a few more, troll?
Reply right now, asshat!
Oh yeah, I forgot, you only post during "working hours" Monday through Friday, almost exclusively from 9 to 5, and never on a federal holiday. I am going to have to wait till Monday for your reply.
Did you really think no one would notice?
I am well aware this will be seen by a wide audience, but Zhers, I am convinced this guy is truly a (.gov?) troll, and I strongly urge anyone who posts here to down-vote the ever loving snot-shit out of him and challenge him at every turn. I have kept my eye on this douche, and I am absolutely serious about this. Look it up; what I say has been proven for the entire 31 weeks and 5 days he has been here.
Submitted for your consideration...
I like you. Nice rant
This is fight club, and that's the way I roll, man.
The truth, be it good, bad, inconvenient, or ugly, shall set us ALL free...
Your analysis starts to break down here: "What conclusive record does the Russian Government have of Russian Citizen's foreign holdings, that have been or could be seized?" There will be a clear record as there is a clear record of seizures that have taken place since the sanctions have been enacted. These are pretty obvious seizures. No Russian is going to buy assets in the west, intentionally commit a crime and hope that somehow Russia compensates them by taking assets from someone else. That is absolutely ridiculous.
How do you record the absence of something whose presence you did not record?
You can't do it.
You can't record the confiscation of something you didn't know someone had.
You simply either take their word for it or you don't
"No Russian is going to buy assets in the west, intentionally commit a crime and hope that somehow Russia compensates them by taking assets from someone else. That is absolutely ridiculous."
That is profoundly, PROFOUNDLY naive. And I didn't say 'buy' I said 'STEAL' as in burglary, theft, criminal enterprise. Yes, the Russian mafia really does exist.
The Russian Government's only record of what was confiscated is the confiscation itself. Imagining a that a LAW will be applied only in the present context is the clincher for NAIVETE.
The Law NEVER gets used as intended. Law is ALWAYS repurposed for someones benefit.
If human nature, Russian or otherwise, were as pure as you imply (not a single criminal out of 150,000,000 people) there would be no need of governments or police, or any of it.
Furthermore, if you would like to explain the precipitous drop in Russian currency value, be my guest.
But my hunch is that the depth of your analysis is: "US & EU = BAD therefore RUSSIA/CHINA = GOOD".
Guess what?
That the guy on your left is a criminal has zero bearing on whether the guy on your right is a criminal.
You want to know how free and open the political situation in Russia is? Since the recent sedition jailings, and the registration of bloggers, Russians won't talk about it anymore. When pressed they will express total support - clamor over each other to express support for Putin.
If that's 'Free' then the word is meaningless. That doesn't mean the US is doing well either.
People who are perfectly capable of saving themselves often die as they look around for someone else to save them.
Open your eyes. Save yourself.
Not one chart will indicate when it will end. So put away the crayons. When it does end you can break out the 8 pack and color away.
BRING BACK Fonzannoon
Free Francis Sawyer!
This is what I like about ZH. It's like wearing wormhole goggles cause you get to see the future in real time.
For the last 4+ years the decline of the US, and USD, has been a central thesis. Now it's mainstream, there's no going back, Central Bankers can't hide it anymore so they're admitting it on a daily basis like the douchebag in this article.
Well done Tylers.
"If you're one step ahead of the crowd, you're a genius. If you're two steps ahead of the crowd they call you crazy".
---Kant Renember
As we look back, we can see the mighty British Empire began it's demise in the relatively short span of 4 years during a European continental war.
It's hung on for another 20 years until a second war cemented the tomb of empire.
Future historians may mark the reign of Barry the Bum as the beginning of the end for American Empire dominance.
I wonder if we can hang on as long as old Blighty.
No no, the US has been in decline for at least 40 years (Nixon), some would argue 50 (JFK). We're at the point now, where hanging on is becoming impossible.
I do agree that we were in decline, but we had a reprieve with the IT revolution of the 1990's. This put us on somewhat of a solid foundation that we then squandered.
It has been since Nixon but really since '94 and free trade agreements. Even the univeral free trade idiots at centre/centre-right institutions like Brookings have acknowledged that 'reshoring' is largely impossible in the US because you need a lot of things in place that take a long time to develop these from a supplier-chain perspective & human skills perspective. Once you sweep these aside for the quick and easy buck, it is damn hard, incredilby costly, and nearly imposible to reestablish them.
If you strip out the excess and unnecessary administrative capacity in higher education and healthcare (providers/insurers), it would be quite depressing on what US employment and economic growth would actually look like.
The story though isn't so much the US falling apart but more so running in place or even slightly backwards while the rest of the world really has started to catch up.
I would say GWB and Obama combined with a sprinkle of Clinton.
The US is in decline because Obama is president, that wont last forever.
To say that Obama is the cause of this decline is absolutely retarded. This decline started with GWB (possibly Clinton) and just continued unabated under Obama. You could substitute Romney here and we would be in the same place.
Dupe
Kissinger and his ilk, i.e. US political and intellectual elite, have presided over the very same policies that have brought about our decline, he knows this full well. His thesis's, books, and apologies for the the status quo over the decades make it seem obvious, to me at least, that he is just covering his tracks and flacking for TPTB; this has always been the charge of members of the CFR and other like organizations that he has long been a member of. He is culpable for our current demise along with his friends in the MIC and Wall St., not to mention Washington. He needs to stand trial for his crimes against the people of the US and the world!
Silver Maples on sale for < $20 I predict within a year we will never see these prices again in our lifetime.
"... an extremely rare historical event – the relative decline of a world superpower ..."
It is much RARER, because it is accompanied by a global phenomenon of the strip-mining of the planet's natural resources through the current means of the industrial revolutions reaching REAL diminishing returns. There is NOTHING in the history of Neolithic Civilization to compare to that finally happening, although it was always inevitable, from the time that style of civilization first started. We were approaching the tipping points at an exponentially accelerating rate. It is almost impossible for anyone to imagine what that means as a turning point in history ... Almost everyone within the established systems are so totally used to what was normal in the past, when it was always possible to increase the strip-mining, that almost nobody fully faces the consequences of that no longer being possible.
People who presume that the decline and fall of the Anglo-American (Zionist) empire could be a good thing are not seeing that inside of the bigger picture, that it is about the overall decline and fall of the globalized systems of the industrial revolutions being able to strip-mine the planet's various natural resources at an exponentially accelerating rate. When the currently dominant globalized empire goes through phases of decline and fall, the entire paradigm of Neolithic Civilization is overall going through a bigger decline and fall.
Theoretically, it may be possible to transform towards Translithic styles of civilization, based on the emergence of different evolutionary ecologies, which adapted through integrated systems of human, industrial and natural ecologies, to the real limits of being able to strip-mine the planet at an exponentially accelerating rate. However, practically speaking, the established systems were based on backing up lies with violence, and those will not go away without first indulging in orgies of lies and violence to maintain themselves in the ways that they were originally made.
In that context, I find articles like the one above to be typically underestimating and understating the seriousness of the situation, and similarly, I find the following article also correct in its analysis, but grossly optimistic, to the point of probably being ridiculous regarding the possible favourable consequences:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article39891.htm
Argentina Dares to Call a Spade a Spade
Naming Western Greed Economy As “Economic Terrorism”
By Peter Koenig, October 07, 2014.
"'Today you pretend making a coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), but in fact you’re their allies,' Those are the frank words by Cristina Fernandez Kirchner, the Argentinian President, spoken in a calm and secure voice at the UN General Assembly last October 3rd, 2014.
... She referred to the West in general and to Washington in particular, for whom war and conflicts, weapons sales, is a means of economic survival, as the US economy depends to more than 50% on the military / security industrial complex and related industries and services. ... A terrorist is whoever does not conform to the western doctrine, whoever insists on national sovereignty – whoever defends their national interests over the voracious interference of Washington and its European puppets – and their killing bulldozer, NATO.
... Currency manipulation is only possible due to the predatory US dollar system, where all international transactions have to be channeled through Wall Street and cleared through the privately owned BIS – Bank for International Settlements, whose owners are a similar lot of financial shenanigans as are those owning the FED. The expected outcome is a devalued ruble, shunned by investors.
Little do they know that this usual western shortsightedness is but accelerating the process of Russia and China issuing a new combined currency, delinked form the dollar-euro fiat money and its SWIFT exchange system. In fact, it has already begun. The Central Bank of China has recently offered a hand to the EU, inviting the Euro as one of several currencies that will no longer need the western clearing system for transactions with China. ...
President Fernandez puts the finger right on the wound when she refers to the entire western monetary system as vulture economics. She knows that such an economy is bound to falter and be replaced – gradually as may be – by one that is based on fairness, integrity and that respects nations’ sovereignty."
THE GLOBALIZED EMPIRE STRIP-MINING THE PLANET THROUGH SYSTEMS OF ORGANIZED LIES AND ROBBERIES IS BOUND TO DECLINE AND FALL, DUE TO RUNNING INTO REAL LIMITS TO CONTINUE BASED ON MORE STRIP-MINING.
HOWEVER, WHEN THAT HAPPENS, IT WILL RESULT IN MASS MURDERS OF THE MAJORITY OF THE HUMAN POPULATION, SINCE NO OTHER BETTER POLITICAL RESOLUTIONS ARE PRACTICALLY POSSIBLE.
Although there are plenty of theoretically possible creative alternatives, which could be integrated into better combined evolutionary ecologies, NONE of those are actually possible without better death controls at their core. Since the established death controls are operated through the maximum possible deceits, and the controlled opposition groups stay within the same frame of reference as those deceits, there are is practically no chance for better ecologies to emerge, without the established systems first going through more genocidal wars along with democidal martial law.
Those are the only things which the ruling classes have actually prepared to do, and given the abysmal level of ignorance of those who are ruled over, as well as the matching ignorance of those in the controlled opposition groups who are typically attempting to lead people backwards, rather than forward, the decline and fall of the currently dominate global empire will probably happen only in the worst possible ways! By the time that the established systems have finished high-grading themselves to hell, by strip-mining every natural resource in ways which leave a polluted and poisoned planet, there will be no "recovery" and never any return to "growth," because there never could be a return to a fresh planet available to be strip-mined at an exponentially accelerating rate.
Theoretically, there could be better evolutionary ecologies emerge which adapted to live within the limits of the real environment. However, none of those can exist without crucial death controls operating at their core. Since the established death controls developed to most successfully operate through the maximum possible deceits, upon which foundation was built a political economy in which the debt controls operated through the maximum possible frauds, the decline and fall of that system will surely become more catastrophic than we can currently comprehend.
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Each of these events has shown America’s unwillingness to take strong foreign policy action and certainly underlined its unwillingness to use force.
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Hadrian's wall was built for pretty much the same reasons. You cannot conquer the entire World by force, the entire World (or most of it) has to go along with it.
Thumbs up to BRICS
We need a replacement to west dominated SWIFT
we need replacement to west dominated Credit/Debit card system .
We need replacement to Dollar, Pound, Franc, Yen, Aus/NZ $
West only prints money to purcase (rob) goods & services from the rest of the world
The selling countries get dollar or buy gold
West (led by America) topples govts. by aiding opposition groups
Then west takes tonnes of gold from the new govt.
And the cycle goes on & on.
West is only a new piracy system