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The Calm Before The Storm In The Gold Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Dan Popescu via Goldbroker.com,

US Dollar Index vs Spot Gold

 

Again this week the gold price tested the $1,200 level dropping below it on higher US dollar against most fiat currencies. It is assumed that a stronger US dollar against the euro and other fiat currencies is also negative for the price of gold. However gold is not a hedge against the US dollar but rather against all fiat currencies. Even though gold’s price has been falling, in India and China gold premiums have increased signifying a rising demand. We have also seen a substantial increase in silver and gold coin sales in the US. Actually gold coin sales doubled in September compared to August.

 

US Mint Gold Coin Sales – Gold and Silver

 

With sentiment at historic low as I explained in my previous article Gold Sentiment, $1,200 and more specifically $1,180 is more a correction within a secular bull market than a pause in a larger bear market. With more and more articles coming out with titles like “Gold Dies”, I am more convinced than ever that we are seeing a major bottom being crated. Eastern central banks are still buying massively and Western central banks are holding on to their stock. This doesn’t look to me as a continuation of a downtrend.

On November 30, Swiss citizens will go to the polls to vote on three areas; whether or not the Swiss National Bank should increase its gold reserves to 20%, that the central bank should stop selling its gold and that all its gold should be held within the country. If by any chance the Swiss people votes in favor I expect major tremors in the gold market. Just the fact that Switzerland will have to buy a large amount of gold to reach the 20% will have a major psychological effect on the gold market not to mention also the snowball effect it will have on other countries. Switzerland is a very small country but with a long history of gold ownership. A vote in favor in the Swiss Gold Initiative referendum would mean that Switzerland would have to buy 1,700 tonnes of gold. This represents 70% of annual world gold production. The Swiss National Bank has 5 years to acquire the 1,700 tonnes if the initiative passes.

Gold as a hard currency is also influenced by geopolitics. But for gold to go up you need not just a local crisis but a crisis that has global impact. Other ways it only increases in price locally in the conflict area with temporary impact on global price. With the Crimean annexation by Russia the world has switched from a détente and disarmament environment to a new cold war and rearmament. Local conflicts are appearing everywhere with potential of escalating into a global conflict. The Middle East and in particular the Iraq/Syria region has become a stateless land where ISIS is trying to expand its influence and destabilize the entire region. Libya, an oil rich country is still in chaos and now social unrest in Hong Kong is threatening stability in China. Let’s not forget the recent unrest in the US with the Ferguson riots, a suburb of St. Louis, Missouri. The US is not used to having social unrest on its own territory. Home grown terrorism spurred by economic hardship has not happened in the US since the 60s. There is a believe in the US that trouble can only come from the outside forgetting even the recent Oklahoma City bombing by a good American boy named Timothy McVeigh. In Europe high unemployment, the rise of the extreme right and secessionist movements (Scotland, Catalonia, etc.) threaten the European Union.

The currency wars are still alive and contrary to the G8 agreement not to manipulate their exchange rates, this is what is actually happening. The US dollar going up against the euro is a stated desire of the European Central Bank. But there is no reason why gold should move with the euro. Gold is the anti-fiat hard currency not just the anti US dollar. Gold has risen as much in all paper currencies in the last 15 years not just against the US dollar. In the most recent Fekete Research Gold Basis Service, Sandeep Jaitly states that “December silver remains in backwardation and December gold is soon to join it”.

In a recent article in the London Financial Times, John Dizard mentioned an increase in gold’s “popularity as a medium of exchange for international transactions has been soaring, particularly in the past few months as the impact of US government sanctions on non-compliant banks has become severe.” And that, despite gold being “the most expensive and least convenient of all of the monetary alternatives to the dollar.” I emphasize the words “medium of exchange” and “soaring” because if we believe the mainstream media nobody wants to use gold as money because it is expensive and least convenient. I mentioned it in a previous article on gold sentiment but I wanted to mention it again because I think it is a very important piece of information.

Physical gold is being accumulated and used in exchanges but very discretely as of now. In a recent report mentioned in the UK Telegraph it is revealed that a record number of super-rich elite are buying gold bullion bars weighting 12.5 Kg. The report says “The gold buying secrets of the UK come as it was recently revealed the number of 12.5kg gold bars being bought by wealthy customers has increased 243% so far this year, when compared to the same period last year.”

The geopolitical and economic environment in the last few months was in my view the calm before the storm. All the economic issues both in Europe and the US and all the geopolitical conflicts I mentioned above, or a combination of them have the potential to degenerate “unexpectedly”. Both the economic and political environments are uncertain and will surprise the complacent markets. More and more the current environment reminds me of the Citigroup president’s statement to the Financial Times before the 2008 crisis. CEO Chuck Prince made clear that he was aware of the risks his company was taking but said “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,”

An unexpected precipitating event like a black swan event in this uncertain environment will push gold and silver up with a quantum leap with gold leading.
 

 

 

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Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:45 | 5316783 scon
scon's picture

What happened to Harvey Organ's blog?

couldn't find it.

THX

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:47 | 5316786 RattNRoll
RattNRoll's picture

Maybe the Tribe took it down

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:52 | 5316799 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

No surprise, when the last of the mega gold bugs stops posting, time to  buy.

Seriously, he may be just retooling and/or taking a health break.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:00 | 5316841 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

, fishez!  

:)

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:08 | 5316871 Leonardo Fibonacci2
Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

mozeltov

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:15 | 5316894 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Ebola will reduce gold demand by 90% as well.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:32 | 5316943 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Ebola has been Berry, Berry good to me....

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:39 | 5317144 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Serious question here:

 

Why buy now? When the crash hits, people will be selling all assets for cheap. You can pick up gold much lower then if you have a cash position....

 

It will drop with everything else as people run to cash

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:50 | 5317177 Joe Trader
Joe Trader's picture

Hey I have a joke

What does ZH always pump in its articles?

Losing bets like putin & Gold.

Oh wait that's not a joke, it's just the truth. JDST up 80% since sept...vs "b-b-b-but gold to the moooon!!"

 

Down vote if your small "down there", gents :o)

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:11 | 5317220 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture
Joe Trader Relationships
Relationship actions
History
Member for
5 weeks 4 days
Sat, 10/11/2014 - 07:18 | 5317921 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

What's that smell?

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 08:25 | 5317968 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

Smells like a troll to me.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 11:01 | 5318151 g'kar
g'kar's picture

.

 

 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 13:15 | 5318352 Rememberweimar
Rememberweimar's picture

GLD and GOLD will go bipolar sooner or later, one is paper and will go to ZERO while the other is an indestructible metal and will not be sold by some for any amount of "Jew confetti"...

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 11:29 | 5318202 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

I miss the good ones, like MathMan and Robo. These newbies are so amateurish they can't even get my heart rate up.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 12:53 | 5318321 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

The US is running the global "show" and it's in their best interest to keep gold price low.

Gold is going to $1160.

A year or more ago GS said gold to $850.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 14:50 | 5318543 fedupwhiteguy
fedupwhiteguy's picture

I miss them too. Did you notice that they predominately left shortly after the censorship started. This site used to be way more informative and had a higher standard of debate. :( 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 14:54 | 5318563 Titus
Titus's picture

Astute observation. Thought provoking trolls replaced by name calling trolls. Kind of like replacing someone like Noam Chomskey with someone like Sean Hannity.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:16 | 5317245 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Are you really that stupid? Have you actually looked at a chart of JDST?

JDST is down 73.4% year to date...

On the other hand, GLD is up 1.27% YTD, while the DJIA is down 0.2% YTD.

So piss-off Troll...

 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 01:04 | 5317674 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

It is to TPTB's advantage to prop up the US Dollar.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 09:47 | 5318058 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Why is that?

That trillion dollar debt...er,, sorry...DEFICIT.... ain't financed by stronger currencies or collapsing commodity prices dopey.

 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 11:33 | 5318210 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

When people respond to all the CIA instigated volatility in their own countries and flood into the US dollar, it allows the US to export its inflation to more people, and also gives the illusion of a strengthening economy, which is useful for the rhetoric in the media, which sways investors into thinking there's a stronger recovery than there is.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 14:19 | 5318491 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Ah,

Statistics !

I have JDST UP 100% in last 3 months.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 22:16 | 5319575 Joe Trader
Joe Trader's picture

boogerbently

yes JDST up 100% in last 3 months

Gold bugs always go back to january 1st and pretend you can only make purchases on that day.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 08:18 | 5317963 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Hey I have a joke too...

Joe Trader.

Haaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaaaa!

Eat shit Joe.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 09:25 | 5318032 random999
random999's picture

lol good thing is,

when the gov asks my bank how much there is on my account to bail out the banks, there will be only very little.

 

Later when the bank cuts their internetconnection I will still have something to buy food for.

That thing called cash is almost illegal nowadays. Anyone carrying around more thant 1000 euro will be seen as a suspect of criminal behaviour. What happens when you come with 1 million in a briefcase?

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 19:31 | 5319154 quadratic_equation
quadratic_equation's picture

I like you because you keep accumulating debt instead of holding on to the real thing.  You can accumulate all the dollar in the world in the end it's still unredeemable debt.  What are you going to exchange your dollar for?  You can't go to the feds to redeem it for anything tangible.  Like Nixon said the dollar is "backed by faith and credit of the American people".

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:52 | 5317182 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

When the crash hits "cash", aka fiat, will be worth exactly the promises backing it. In todays numbers, that is one squirt of piss.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 02:38 | 5317764 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

You forgot the concomitant shake and the last drop that always runs down the leg. Unless of course, you are covered as well as your handle intimates.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:11 | 5317222 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

I think you're right - and I have 30% of my total assets in metals outside the banking system.  There will be forced liquidations.  I expect the price to go down and not climb until the dollar breaks.  The flip-side is I don't know how much warning one can expect on the dollar breaking.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:52 | 5317533 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

The answer is; you're speculating. you don't know this. Gold isn't Pork Bellies. It may be going up as people "run to cash" more and more people all the time understand that it is cash. Also; by time you decide it's the "just right" time to buy; and you have a nice quote on the TV screen; there won't be any.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 10:47 | 5318142 CHX
CHX's picture

Yes, gold IS the ultimate form of cash - cash with no counterparty risk, whereas every fiat currency is really just debt, ever-growing debt until... 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 11:38 | 5318215 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

Everything has counterparty risk. Gold's is that one of the parties in each trade could be trading gold plated tungsten instead of actual gold. Still better than fiat though.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 17:03 | 5318824 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

Re: counterfeiting ... Fiat has the same counterparty risk -- if not moreso.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:23 | 5317586 Toronto Kid
Toronto Kid's picture

In a non-ebola crash, yes, you trade your fiat for cheap stuff that you need. Get a car, get real estate, get food, get it cheap, pay it from the piles of cash you have in the bank.

In an ebola crash, your piles of cash still exist in the bank in the form of bank records and will one day be resurrected (probably when the power comes back on), but in the meanwhile you can't afford the new car, real estate, food, even tho' it is all going cheap and you have lots and lots of money. But if you have a small pile of gold, as well as piles of cash in the bank you can pay for the things you need in either scenario.

And then there are the widgets that are obtainable (but expensive) now, but will be cheap and totally unfindable post-crash. Get 'em in now, and you won't be up a creek without a paddle.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 13:46 | 5318427 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Karlus, If we had the playbook, we could always do the bottoms and the tops.  I never seem to get the playbook, so I have to phase in, phase out, and make my decisions best as I can.

If you get the playbook, please share it

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 10:45 | 5318133 CHX
CHX's picture

Ultimately, with quasi zero offer (no bid) even 90% demand reduction will not matter under freed au.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:07 | 5317046 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

Well there you are

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:10 | 5317219 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

May have been the copyright police. He posts a lot of articles. Someone may have complained and he got axed if it was a repeat offence.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:12 | 5316881 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Uh oh! We read Harvey every day. "We're on an express elevator to hell, goin' down!"

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:45 | 5317164 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

wtf happened to Harvey?

Maybe the deep-pocketed long December Silver got him.

Seriously, I hope he is ok. Seems very odd for him to take down the site with no notice.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:14 | 5317071 Gerb00
Gerb00's picture

Yes, Harveys organ does seem to be missing, LOL.... hope it is an attack and not  just down for maintenance , if it is an attack by TPTB that is a good sign that something is up.....

As many bloggers have said that we are going to get up one morning and gold will be up a $100 and will just continue to rise by double digits....with the same happening to Silver...

 

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:12 | 5317429 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Something about 'court action'.......

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:24 | 5317580 holgerdanske
holgerdanske's picture

What happened to Harvey Organ's blog?

 

Taken down by court order, according to Jesse's Cafe Americain.

I wonder what was in that last blog and why it had to go.

Would anyone have a copy?

 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 01:48 | 5317721 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Jesse speculates it could be copyright infringement. Given Harvey's propensity to cut and paste ENTIRE articles into his daily recap (instead of a lead and a link) I think this is a very reasonable supposition. And if so, nothing nefarious going on.

Also, easily fixable in the future (if this is, indeed, the infraction).

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:23 | 5317584 delacroix
delacroix's picture

court ordered shutdown, according to jesse.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 11:29 | 5318201 Conax
Conax's picture

Harvey's....  GONE?

Put your helmets on, boys, they came for the Harvemeister!

I hope he comes back, where else can a plebe find out those stats he gathered and posted every day?  Anybody?  Anybody?  Buehler?

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:53 | 5316813 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I'm buying silver. That gold chart looks nice as well.

 Also some platinum (couple of 1 TOZ ingots). Shit's expensive.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:56 | 5316831 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Ebola will eventually make PMs obsolete.

1 1/2-2 years tops.

If you got 'em, smoke 'em.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:03 | 5316840 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

NO WAY!

IT SURVIVED HOW MANY WARS AND PLAGUES..

its been a commodity and desirable since the FRICKIN STONE AGE!!

obsolete...a barbaric relic...

BEN, IS THAT YOU BEN???

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:16 | 5316896 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

PMs require people that want it.

When there's nobody around that wants it, well . . .

Unless this is all about the Annunaki wanting more gold, and not wanting to have to create a Flood to wipe out any oppostion.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:23 | 5316907 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

dude...give it up. and change that handle to "not too Bright"

(Reuters) - Buying activity in China's physical gold exchange ticked up this week, indicating retailers in the top consumer of the metal saw good sales during the week-long National Day holiday. Prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange - the platform for all physical trades in China - were about $5-$6 an ounce higher than the global benchmark XAU=, compared with about $3 before Chinese markets closed for the holiday.

The increased buying interest shows retailers are probably restocking after sales during the holiday from Oct. 1-7. The annual holiday, also known as the Golden Week, is a time when millions of people travel and spend more than usual. It also marks a pick-up in weddings, boosting demand for gold jewellery.

"We are seeing increased demand since the end of the holiday, and should see imports pick up from next week," said a trader with an importing bank.
In Hangzhou, retailers saw gold jewellery sales jump 106 percent, while stores in Tianjin saw gold and silver jewellery sales rise by more than 40 percent, according to a statement from the ministry of commerce earlier this week.

A drop in prices during the holiday helped boost sales, while aggressive promotions by jewellery retailers also helped, dealers said. "Strengthening demand for kilobars in China has been a prevalent theme ... since their week long holiday," Alex Thorndike, senior trader at MKS Group said in a note on Friday.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/10/gold-demand-asia-idINKCN0HZ0TD2...

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:24 | 5316919 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

not too important...

WTF are you talking about...

if there is nobody who wants it???

brides, espessally ones from india want it...ITS SHINY...they like diamonds...because there sprarkly...

if there is no demand..is because there will be no one left...and

OH< I GIVE UP...ill junk you and leave it at that...

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 09:51 | 5318066 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You might be getting paid in debt...aka dollars....but it is very good debt.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 11:43 | 5318221 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

"Full faith and credit", because you need to have faith in order to hold it.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:25 | 5317269 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

Same shit can be said about USD or the Argentine Peso or the Zim Dollar. 

I was in Europe, and nobody wanted my USD...

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 07:58 | 5317949 hootowl
hootowl's picture

They don't want your USD in Chicago either......won't even pay the rent......Rahm's gangbangers deal in tens of thousands of USD everyday......The crisis being exploited is limited to the working class.....There's not enough left after taxes to even afford a decent pitchfork.

Underground economy,bitchez!  Starve the Beast!

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 17:18 | 5318858 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Are the Chinese owners of all the rentals in Detroit now charging rent in Yuan? 

Is that going to happen in Chicago too?

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 09:54 | 5318072 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What's a gallon of fuel cost in euro,s again?

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 09:24 | 5318033 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 PMs require people that want it.

When there's nobody around that wants it, well . . .

How does that apply to gold more than anything else? In fact.. it applies less to gold than fiat; the latter requires a working society/government to back it up with threats of force against its own (or, in the case of the US, the world's) citizens.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:30 | 5317479 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

@X.inf.capt  10+ thumbs up.

 

Ben, is that you Ben?  ROFLMAO.  ha! ha! ha!

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:49 | 5316991 Karaio
Karaio's picture

@ Yen Cross: 

 

I have a cousin on his mother who is married to a Mining Engineer. 

The guy has worked in gold mines in Brazil and South Africa. 

As an employee had a good life, but started making money today and is rich. 

He attends auctions in hospitals. 

He buys massive sheet of x-ray batches. 

Purchase very cheap, separates the silver plastic, sells plastic and does whatever you want with the silver. 

It is a recycling company, everything "green." 

:-)

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:00 | 5317025 cifo
cifo's picture

Now I understand where your avatar comes from :)

 

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:19 | 5317086 Karaio
Karaio's picture

@ CIFO: 

 

Honestly do not understand your comment, is dubious. 

My avatar can be understood as an ass or donkey, simple large head of Homer Simpson. 

There havatar on your part. 

I conclude that you have no imagination to upload any interesting or image, is one of the many trolls who sail here. 

For my part I can say that mouthful, everything I write are true things that happened in my life. 

This along three marriages, two children - the second marriage - in my fifty-two years of life well lived. 

I ask you to explain yourself. 

Or call me an idiot or at least give an impression that you understand what I wrote. 

hehe.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:37 | 5317137 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Whaaa?

 

Dude, he meant you have an xray avatar and you got silver from xray equipment...ease the fuck up bro, its Friday.

 

All that shit you wrote was like "what?"

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:22 | 5317260 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

It's what happens when you mix up your methenol with the ethenol.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:00 | 5317384 logicalman
logicalman's picture

If you mix up your methanol with tje ethanol you tend to go blind and maybe, die.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:59 | 5317548 Karaio
Karaio's picture

@ & @ Fockewulf190 logicalman: 

 

Here in the city of Anapolis, State of Goias - Brazil, the temperature is 27,4º Celcius and the humidity at 20%. 

I'm having a beer Skol brand with my laptop in the outside of the house looking at the stars from time to time table. 

I'm with my pack of cigarettes Hollywood red as ever smoke two packs of cigarettes a day and not give a damn! 

Any day now explain to you the advantages of smoking. Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk! 

My wife is sleeping in the house and a nine year old niece is in the guest room. 

I'm chatting with you because I like the chat here is lighter than the Russians and Germans where only read websites. 

French pages are a disgrace, full of boring intellectuals "bakarai" - to hell -. 

Any page in Brazil today is politicized and galvanized between Dilma and Aetius Neves, do not like it, my focus is geopolitical. 

Pages of Portugal only have assholes EU - poor and fucked -. 

As they say among the fishermen of the coast of Brazil, people who eat sardines and shrimp burps. 

I'm just a simple guy, Professor of Geography who likes to talk, nothing more. 

Another thing, I'm not sneaky, do not buy shit. 

Of good. 

Bration prôceis there, if I seem to be good people. 

:-)

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 03:44 | 5317796 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Hey - this place used to be fight club

i want to pull up a seat and see where this goes.

what the prof lacks in brains he makes up for in heart and alcohol

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:39 | 5317501 Karaio
Karaio's picture

@ Karlus: 

Sorry. 

I tried to be honest, I was naive. 

Recognize. 

Not have associated with my avatar history. 

Yes, write a lot, every guy I've made ??two very Universities writes. 

Seeks leave well explained what you think and imagine. 

:-)

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:55 | 5316819 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Think its more like the eye of the storm 2008-2016.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:55 | 5316825 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Quantum leap?

 

I would be happy with an order of magnitude.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:51 | 5317184 bonin006
bonin006's picture

I too would prefer an order of magnitude, over the smallest increase theoretically possible.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 19:57 | 5316830 Silver_K-9
Silver_K-9's picture

Harvey Organ's blog is gone? ?

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:02 | 5316848 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Says it's been removed.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:59 | 5317024 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Whoa....

Not even a hint first.

Hope to God he is alive and well.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:01 | 5316842 skbull44
skbull44's picture

So, will a suit of gold help protect against ebola? Just asking....

 

http://olduvai.ca

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:04 | 5316854 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I've found that gold and silver expedite the process.

 If you know what I'm saying? ;-)

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:56 | 5317188 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

well, no but some alternative medicine people reckon that silver does help your immune response against Ebola. You can buy drinkable 'nano-silver' or somesuch. I cant confirm if it actually works, but its not as far fetched as it sounds - applying bandages with small amounts of silver lining is clinically proven to rapidly increase healing for numerous skin damage/disease ailments

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:32 | 5317600 delacroix
delacroix's picture

liposomal vitamin C in substantial amounts, looks like it provides your immune system with the ammunition to fight off many pathogens.  glutathione too.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:01 | 5316847 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Yep, Harvey's Organ has left the building

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:08 | 5316863 White Owl
White Owl's picture

"Physical gold is being accumulated and used in exchanges but very discretely as of now."

And THERE is the reality. The banksters are still playing the paper gold/silver game but the sovereign central banks have been playing the physical accumulation game behind the MSM reports of "news". Wait until the 1Q results in April 2015... the evidence will be astounding when the Crimex et al have collapsed (and when the China physical price is the new standard) and the paper metals contract at far more than 100:1 ratio become lower than the worst penny stock bond paper or derivative gambling paper contract from the 1990's. We're already there... it just needs to further marinate in the corrupt and fraud system banks.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:36 | 5316953 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

u c....
nice to know not alone...
keep stackin if possible...
otherwise peace b with u and c u maybe on the other side...

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:10 | 5316874 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

Did he leave the building or get removed? He just predicted a few weeks ago the end game was about to play out with China on Greg Hunter's show.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:16 | 5316897 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

Harvey is gone?

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:18 | 5316903 screw face
screw face's picture

BTFD

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:16 | 5317243 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

exactly next friday stocks at record high gold 995 silver 15

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:46 | 5317642 mt paul
mt paul's picture

yea

 

but will the Jets

cover the spread

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 07:03 | 5316932 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:45 | 5316977 Brazen Heist
Brazen Heist's picture

Eobla potentially is the ultimate "fall guy" and will be used to justify the remaining unfulfilled machinations of the State and its cronies who rig financial markets, including the dismantling of the "freedoms" the terrorists "hate us for" (in which we funnily respond by taking them away) and constitutional rights (what little there are left). They will use this tremendous opportunity to destroy what little is left of democracy and usher in a new financial system after the current one's impending collapse. It will be blamed on Ebola and anything other than the very people who are exploiting it to their advantage. 

Perfect cover, game set match bichez. 

Sharpen your pitchforks.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:59 | 5316998 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I wonder whether Russians selling London real estate is fueling the large gold bullion purchases?  

They sell the London holdings and then buy bullion, held either back in mother Russia or more likely in anonymous holdings internationally...

 

 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 10:02 | 5318083 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

They just go back to Russia.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:53 | 5317009 silverliberty
silverliberty's picture

I just read Harvey Organ late last night or early this morning.  It must have happened a few hours ago.   Weird!

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:52 | 5317359 EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Real weird. Been reading him for the last 3 years and now poof. 

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 20:56 | 5317018 silverliberty
silverliberty's picture

Unfortunately, the govt. could just outlaw all precious metals like they did in the Soviet Union.  Therefore, the govt. can finally make gold worthless in their unreal world, which it will force us to live in.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:15 | 5317078 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

No government has ever, or could ever, completely destroy the black market.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:21 | 5317092 silverliberty
silverliberty's picture

I agree, Team!

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 08:40 | 5317984 sleigher
sleigher's picture

The tighter their grip the more star systems will fall through their grasp.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:20 | 5317453 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

That would only make it clear that fiat has become worthless.   Not enough commoners hold pm's while the ultra wealthy DO.  Reading local news I recall a few stories about varied crimes involving very wealthy people - one a murder, another some kind of robbery/extortion.  Buried in the details were comments about the peopel having gold and silver bars in safes at their homes.....   More than a few stories about mobsters holding gold bars - including one living in Montana(?) on the run who had a 'secret' vault built under his house to hold his gold and silver. The REALLY wealthy have pallets in private vaults - and those would be the easy and obvious targets (along with any metal left in banking vaults).

The one thing I'm sure of is that TPTB are NOT going to let government take THEIR gold and silver.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:01 | 5317030 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

Yeah and I just knew this was about to happen when I bought in too high in 2011. Shoulda known as.long as the demons have it we keep floating to the falls.

I wish those that author these doom articles could just circle tbe date on the calender.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:20 | 5317087 silverliberty
silverliberty's picture

Buster, I wish it were easy to fortell doom, but then again if it were easy, then everyone would be ready and there would be no reward for being prepared.  Wether you bought high or low it is better to have it than not and it is better to be a few years early rather than one day too late.  I've been buying the whole time.  I've been buying every month since 1987, but I didn't get serious until 2002.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:20 | 5317095 10mm
10mm's picture

They took Harveys organs?

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 21:23 | 5317103 silverliberty
silverliberty's picture

The Swiss will vote on November 30, 2014 concerning their gold.  It could start all the fireworks. 

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:04 | 5317199 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

OK, question to the gold/silver experts: As someone with a fair amount in Gold/Silver ETFs, why would I want to own physical instead?  I can sell my ETF with the click of my mouse.  Where does a private party sell physical gold/silver other than to a gold broker wanting to give you 50 cents (or similar) on the dollar?

Until gold/silver are coined again and made popular for trading I don't see the physical being very useful.  How am I wrong?

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:42 | 5317332 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.  Check out the prices on ebay for physical gold and silver, if you don't want to sell to your LCS you can sell on craigslist as well. There's always buyers out there for real money.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:51 | 5317353 Reggie Dunlop
Reggie Dunlop's picture

I would say most people on this website don't suggest bullion as an investment you would trade.

They suggest bullion as an investment that you accumulate as protection.  

Selling it isn't on our minds, stacking it is.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:53 | 5317362 EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Gold is NOT and investment. It is a hedge

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:22 | 5317455 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Gold is STILL money when everything else loses its value.  Gold is for the PRESERVATION of wealth/savings/value.

 

Sun, 10/12/2014 - 00:02 | 5318305 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

"Gold is STILL money when everything else loses its value"

I don't doubt this but when companies do not take gold/silver as payment what does one do with it other than trade it for green paper (pay fees/comissions in doing so) then pay with green paper.  It seems to me that companies need to start accepting gold/silver as payment.  Then there is the fraud thing...  How does someone know that the piece of gold that they were handed isn't fake, cut, or similar?

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 03:55 | 5317759 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Oh, yeah? from 250 in 2001 to 1800 in 2011 was only a hedge?

Not to mention 35 to 800 back in the 1970s.

($35 to 1800 in 40 years certainly way, way, way outpaced inflation)
http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf

You're embarrassing yourself.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:56 | 5317373 silverliberty
silverliberty's picture

It will be useful when the phoney money reaches its' true value(not hardware store).  Believe me it WILL become much more valuable and tradeable.  During Germany's hyperinflationary period, people, who had precious metals were buying buildings and large tracks of land for small quantities of silver and gold.  For example: a waiter bought the restaurant he had worked in with an American silver dollar he received as a tip the year prior to all hell break loose. 

You will wan to trade your precious metal for something real not for worthless paper.  Be sure to stock up on pre-1964 silver US coinage.  It will be invaluable in order to buy food stuffs. 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:04 | 5317551 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

bullionvault.com you can goggle it. read the website carefully. they have their own market; youi sell any amount you want on line; they send the money back to your bank account. it's headquartered in London.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:51 | 5317652 mt paul
mt paul's picture

i'll trade you

all the little pieces of green paper,you want

for your silver and gold bullion ...

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 12:42 | 5318312 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Deal!  I'll take $10000.00 of U.S. legal tender green paper for every ounce of gold that I have.  Lets start with ten ounces.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 14:33 | 5318518 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

OK, novice...call any decent dealer and you can sell your gold coins at or even above spot price.
GLD is paper gold, basically mostly derivatives not actual gold in their fund.
GTU has 100% gold, no derivatives. If you need to hold paper gold (in an IRA, for instance), GTU is the one you want. GLD you absolutely want to avoid.
google it, this is not a secret.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 02:24 | 5317751 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Is your question for real?
J.P. Morgan's pyramid/shell game GLD seems safer to you than physical gold?
And you really think you need to sell physical gold at 50% of spot?
(I'll buy all you got at 90 cents, and i'd still be stealing from you)

Hope you're not playing with real money.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 12:39 | 5318309 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

No, it was a completely fake question.  You can tell by the way it asked about very specific issues regarding gold, how to buy/sell it, etc.  And that I stated that I own gold/silver but through ETFs.  Yes, must have been a totally fake question.

(Wow... some complete morons on ZH...  LOL!)

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 09:48 | 5318063 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Physical is physical. Everything else is a lie. Nuf said.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:09 | 5317214 Karaio
Karaio's picture

Gold is an interesting case. 

Especially when looking BRICs. 

China and India buy gold insanely. 

Russia is measured. 

Brazil and South Africa do not care to buy gold. 

China has little gold in their territory. 

India has little gold in their territory and some varieties, per usual only use gold wedding dowries. Hence consumption. 

Russia has a lot of gold saved a lot more buried the hopes of mining in Siberia. 

South Africa if you need, you can simply nationalize its oil fields and between 0:24 few months will be the strongest currency in the world.

Brazil is the same case. 

These five countries have lots of people, lots of culture (an ancient two ancient and two centuries in regard to the territory). 

In the five you find three with atomic warheads and missiles, technology to make one with and one with peaceful atomic energy. 

As for water, Brazil is the one with more, China and India has shortage, Russia is like Brazil, South Africa is remediable. 

Needless to talk about the industry these five countries would be cowardice. 

Much less need to talk about training of skilled manpower and education. 

Iran and Germany probably will be the next to join the BRIC countries - France and Italy no, no. 

Perhaps South Korea, Taiwan not - that shit is full of rules as the Falkland Islands and Ascension Island are strategic points. 

At the heart of the issue is not only gold, is the production and natural resources. 

Gold will replace the volatile paper money printed insanely, that's all. 

Things back to normal as two thousand years there but I believe not without a war, a third world war. 

Unfortunately. 

: - /

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:23 | 5317459 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

If China has such littel gold why is it one of the top producers?

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:32 | 5317601 Karaio
Karaio's picture

@ Cynicalskeptic: 

 

I also found this and found it interesting: 

 

  China is the largest gold market in the world with the highest production (473t) and the largest import metal (1.108t). 

Nevertheless hunger for the metal seems to have been satisfied because it produced 63.17 tons of gold in the first two months of the year, an increase of 10.59% over 2013. 

 

Honestly, he married my cousin guy - the guy who worked in South Africa and in gold mines in Brazil - is Mining Engineer - is not aware of so much gold in China. 

The guy has traveled the world, worked for multinational companies that exploit only gold. 

He now lives in Florianopolis, Santa Catarina State, Brazil, is an authority on gold exploration. 

In the last conversation we had he spoke a lot about Rare Earths in China, and nothing more. 

Nothing gold there. 

In hindsight, if I had that much gold, why would buying both? 

Recycling of electronic equipment? 

Read this story: 

"Portuguese Recycler which has handled more than 26 tonnes of IT equipment recovers precious metals 

Do you think possible to find 75 pounds of precious metals like gold, silver and platinum, in a dump? What seems madness was possible thanks to the recycling of computer equipment in Portugal. 

Company specializing in the recycling of these items in terrinha the ReciSmart recently released a report pointing that were recovered about 13 tons of computer equipment by the company, with 45 pounds of this total were precious metals. 

The cumulative total of the first year of activity of the company between August 2010 and July 2011, the sum of 26,183 pounds of recycled material, in which are included around 75 pounds of noble metals. 

ReciSmart 

Integrated in recovery and recovery of precious metals industry, cutting ReciSmart computers, automobile components and other obsolete computer equipment. The recovered metals enter the recovery and recycling cycle, giving rise to secondary raw materials. For more information, visit the website of the Portuguese company. "

In my view, the interesting thing will be whether the Chinese said they are the largest producers, or if this information was planted to denigrate gold as currency. 

Is the question. ... 

:-)

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 07:21 | 5317924 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Yes, I've noticed that there are more folks buying stuff like 'gold-filled' items now...used to be that few would even look at gold-filled, now they're actively buying it to refine the gold out of it. Why would they do that? I think it is because they believe that it will be very profitable in the end...

I recently sold a little over a pound of old, gold-filled eyeglass frames, and got nearly a thousand dollars for that lot, AND the bidders were fighting over it...amazing. 10 years ago I couldn't have given those frames away with a tank of gas...

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 10:15 | 5318101 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You're a professor?  Dear god.

Explain this one:  at one time Brazil was by far the world's largest ethanol producer.  Not even close now.  Does that mean j can start getting real cane sugar in my soda pops again?  I'm tired of my feet sticking to the floor at the theater.  Or that not using real butter but margarine instead?

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 17:23 | 5318868 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

If your feet are sticking to the theater floor, what makes you so sure it's because of soda pop? What kind of movies are you watching?

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 22:46 | 5317344 homiegot
homiegot's picture

I bought  a shitload of canned meats today for emergency food. I find canned meats more pallatable than gold.

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 23:26 | 5317466 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

You need  DIVERSIFIED holdings.  

Gold to preserve wealth, silver for use when paper money becomes worthless, lead for protection, food snd water for survival and necessities like toilet paper and garbage bags for making it through the meltdown period.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 01:27 | 5317703 Livermore Legend
Livermore Legend's picture

"Nuff Said"

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:12 | 5317566 monad
Sat, 10/11/2014 - 00:56 | 5317660 mt paul
mt paul's picture

buying this dip 

all the way down

 

if this ship is going down

there will be enough ingots stacked on deck

to make sure she stays down ..

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 01:06 | 5317676 JPMorgan
JPMorgan's picture

Apparently Harvey Organ's blog has been taken down by court order.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2014/10/harvey-organs-gold-and-...

 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 01:27 | 5317704 bustdrs
bustdrs's picture

Thanks JP.
Harvey Organ taken down!
Bullish!

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 12:14 | 5318260 walküre
walküre's picture

tribe did him in

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 01:24 | 5317701 Livermore Legend
Sat, 10/11/2014 - 04:05 | 5317809 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

If you spend 5 years talking up a declining asset it's bound to rise at some point. You have the nerve to call out Gartman.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 08:05 | 5317954 ultramaroon
ultramaroon's picture

A few snapshots are available on the Wayback Machine.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140517085151/http://harveyorgan.blogspot.de/

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 10:17 | 5318104 Siouxwestern
Siouxwestern's picture

This was a decent explanation of why Organ was so fantastically wrong: http://kiddynamitesworld.com/precious-metals-charlatans-freaks-of-the-in...

 

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 12:12 | 5318255 walküre
walküre's picture

20% reserve in physical gold.... if the Swissies vote on this, the Germans will want more too! Since Buba asked for it back and the German government doesn't have the balls to enforce the repatriation because all German government is just a lackey to the American jackboot, it will never come back.

Real Germans know this of course which is why real Germans say screw this and build their own stash which is exceeding the 20% threshold already.

If you want to fuck with the tribe, the only reasonable way is to buy and hold physical metals and avoid their debt scams (unless it can be used to aquire more phys and default on debt).

The tribe caused the financial problems we have. Singlehandedly and without question. No other group has the know-how or power and control to pull this off.

Sat, 10/11/2014 - 15:57 | 5318682 Clesthenes
Clesthenes's picture

gold is not a hedge against the US dollar but rather against all fiat currencies.

First, gold is not a hedge, it is actual collateral for all issued paper currencies, and much more.  The words, “gold and gold receivables” are listed first on the asset statement of all central banks.  It is, for example, 1) collateral for “cash equivalents” that show up on corporate asset statements (as formerly, only “cash” was listed) 2) Mortgage Backed Securities (owned by the FR), 3) US Treasuries (owned by foreign institutions, private and public).  All these and more are ultimately collateralized by a piece of paper held by the Federal Reserve and which goes by the name, “gold certificate”; which, in turn, is collateralized by the words, “gold and gold receivables” listed on the asset statement of the US Treasury.  The words, “gold receivables” tell you that some, or all, of Fort Knox gold is not where most people think it is.

So, what is a realistic $ price for gold… $7,000… $15,000…?

You may think this will be a wild ride. If you think collateralization, currency equivalents, double-entry bookkeeping and mortgage-backed securities are dull subjects – if you think wishful thinking is a harmless activity – if you think taxes are essential for the development and maintenance – rather than the destruction – of civilization, then, yes, this will be a very wild ride. We are about to study concepts and actions, crimes and fictions that few, if any, others have examined yet relative to their influence on gold.

Instead of using gold as collateral, the dollar, today, is collateralized by US Treasury securities, which carry value only as taxes can be collected against future generations of Americans: a kind of cannibalism.  This is a hideous case of wishful thinking. Thus, today, wishful thinking has replaced gold as backing for most of the world's currencies.

It may also be a disturbing study; for, the dollar is the world's reserve currency. It is used as gold once was used: to serve as backing, or collateral, for issued currencies around the globe; in the dollar's case, it serves as collateral for many of the world's major currencies: the Euro, yuan, yen, and a few dozen others are, thus, built on top of the house of cards known as the dollar.

We should ponder the question, 'What happens when men build a global society on houses of cards?'

 

We should also consider the question, ‘Should we rely on ourselves to provide an alternative… or those (Congress) who mandated this house of cards to be imposed on Americans… and the world?’ (Complete article)

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