"De-Dollarizing" Russia Pays Down Near-Record $53 Billion In Debt In Third Quarter

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite the reassuring narrative from The West that Russia faces "costs" and is increasingly "isolated" due to sanctions for its actions in Ukraine, the most recent data suggests reality is quite different. First, capital outflows slowed dramatically in Q3 (from $23.7 billion in Q2 to $13 billion in Q3) with September seeing capital inflows for the first time since Sept 2013. Second, Russia's current account surplus was significantly stronger than expected ($11.4 billion vs $8.8 billion expected) driven by increased trade. Third, and perhaps most crucially, Russia paid down a massive $52.8 billion in foreign debt as Putin "de-dollarizes" at near record pace, reducing external debt to the lowest since 2012.

As Goldman explains, Trade and income improved notably...

The current account balance for Q3 came in at a surplus of US$11.4bn, above consensus expectations of US$8.8bn and up sharply from a small deficit of US$0.7bn in Q3 2013.


On our estimates, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, this now puts the current account at 3.8% of GDP, up from a low point of 1% in Q2 2013 and 1.6% for the full-year 2013.


The improvement in the current account came from both the trade balance, where imports have contracted (due to slowing domestic demand and the weaker Ruble), and from the income balance.


In our view, the latter could be due to either cyclical or structural factors, which are difficult for us to pinpoint, but risks to our current account balance forecasts nonetheless remain to the upside.


Net private capital outflows stood at US$13bn for the quarter, up slightly from US$10bn in Q3 2013 and similar to the pattern seen in Q2.






June was first monthly net inflow since Sept. 2013, according to central bank statement. 

And finally - "de-dollarization" accelerates as Russia pays down its foreign debt at the fastest pace since Lehman...


Source: CBR

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"Isolated" Indeed!

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Russia is battening down the hatches for the coming perfect storm.

X.inf.capt's picture

them russians sure know how to plan accordingly...

and play the long game of chess...

max2205's picture

When does he dump Treasuries?  Oh wait thats what Belgium is for

7.62x54r's picture

Dollar denominated Russian debt would be easier to pay off after the dollar crashes. Not sure if this is a good move.

But not having outstanding debt is generally a good idea.

Sudden Debt's picture

As Obama would say:
"we've got the right where we want them!"
"We've just picked up the soap and it's ours!!and they can't grab it because they behind us!"


Oh dear....


WTFRLY's picture

Agenda 21 land grab? Obama Designates San Gabriel Mountains National Monument

Amerikan Patriot's picture

You mean the long game of running the USSR into the ground until it's broken up into 15 separate states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia) and then desperately to reconstitute the USSR as V2.0?

Is that what you meant, Bob?  :-)

Titus's picture

Amerikan Patriot = Hasabara Shill

Amerikan Patriot's picture

I've got logic and reasoning.  You've got epithets.  See the difference?

Titus's picture

Logic based on incorrect inputs is just as bad as no logic.

Really, how much are you getting paid per comment? What about those bots of yours in Siberia?

Volkodav's picture

Soviet is defunct

get over it...


you're pathetic

Amerikan Patriot's picture

Sorry Bob.  Vlad can't 'get over it' and neither can you. Remember, he said that the fall of the SU was the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. 

Zero Hedgers need to work feverishly to help Vlad re-build the SU and re-populate its gulags.  Rejoice, comrades, the new workers' paradise is nigh!

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Get with the programme shit-for-brains.

You're thinking is 25 years expired.

Amerikan Patriot's picture

"You're [sic] thinking is 25 years expired."

Bob, Vlad is doing his level best to cobble together what's left of the Soviet Union.  A piece of Georgia here, part of Ukraine there, maybe Estonia or perhaps Kazakhstan if he can swing it.  Won't you help him in reassembling Stalin's lost workers' paradise? 

Just think - you could be put in charge of your very own gulag and house the next generation of Mikhail Khodorkovskys in a distant oblast under Vlad's personal direction!   :-)

pot_and_kettle's picture

Russians don't take a dump without a backup plan




Amerikan Patriot's picture

What was the backup plan for the dissolution of the Soviet state?  Rebuilding it?  :-)

WhackoWarner's picture

They know what is coming and that nation knows how to survive.  Right or wrong they have seen this before and have retained a memory.

Amerikan Patriot's picture

Survive?  Russia in its current form has only been around since 1991, Bob.  And even at that, it's shrinking every year. 

Jack Burton's picture

I agree! The Russian Think Tanks are advising Putin that an ecnomic storm in the west is now a sure bet, unavoidable. Surely nobody can say when, but "if" is now off the table. Russian gold purchases and desire to de-dollar in a managable manner are indications of hatch battening. And Yes, Russia spends a lot of State and Private funds on acedemic and private sector Think Tanks, not ones seeking ways to increase the 1%'s power and wealth and global empire, as USA Think Tanks do. But these have as their commission to learn as much as possible about world ecnomics and geopolitical trends and advise Government and Industry how to cope with what is coming. I heard a couple major Think Tank leaders speak in translation on Russian Websites. Their ability to look logically at events, without any political spin, is refreshing and a bit scary. These guys are not "The Heritage Foundation".

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Their ability to look logically at events, without any political spin,
is refreshing and a bit scary. These guys are not "The Heritage

Thier scientists are also more free to explore areas of research the West would never tolerate. While they have their own Cognitive Dissonances to deal with, thinking outside the box is better tolerated in Russia.

JoeSexPack's picture

Russians believe abiotic oil theory, meaing oil is from mineral processes, not dead dinosaurs.


Only biotic oil theory was allowed in West, so West never drilled too deep.


Russkies found oil 6 miles under, where no dino's ever roamed, & are still drilling deeper.

90's Child's picture

I'm sure they won't be to willing to public that information if it proves to be correct.

I don't blame them.

economics9698's picture

The Russians know the way to win a war is to first kill the fiat. Do you think they really give a fuck about economics?

Amerikan Patriot's picture

Russia is dependent to this day on Western technology to develop its oil reserves, Bob.

SAT 800's picture

T hat;s impossible and I don't believe it for a minute; as someone who has worked on high level government technology. The first thing they're going to do is make drawings and take material samples of everyt hing; copy every operating system for every seismo-survey piece of equipment; they build better rocket engines than we did for christs sake and you don't think they build their own equipment to drill a hole in t he grouind. Absurd.

Amerikan Patriot's picture

"That;s [sic] impossible"!

Oh, it's not only not impossible, Bob, it's simply the truth.  E.g., Exxon Mobil is helping Russia develop its Arctic oil reserves using expertise it simply doesn't have on its own.

Maybe spend less time posting here and more working on that GED, huh?   :-)

SAT 800's picture

What youi mistake for "dependent" is expedient. If they want to they will duplicate and improve on every piece of t hat equipment t hat exists and t hey'll do it in 90 days.

Amerikan Patriot's picture

Bob, certain advanced drilling expertise and techniques are only feasible with American oil companies. 

Given your errors of logic and spelling, I'm thinking that SAT 400 would be a more suitable moniker for you.  At least consider it.

daedon's picture

After hearing William Engdahl talk about that, the fossil fuel theory sounds rediculous.

Volkodav's picture

Russians can be very clever

and not scared of much


Russians normal to evade rules


Titus's picture

Russians normal to evade rules

Exactly. If there's one thing I've learned from the Russians, it's not to fight the rules. Much easeir to go around.

Volkodav's picture


 like getting around turnstile freepay


WhackoWarner's picture

Much as it was not featured in West MSM.  The Sochi Olympics amazed.  I watched them from another view (not a USA USA feed).



saints51's picture

Yeah but don't let them fool you either. They have masters who they are looking out for. What we see now is the elites have fleeced all the middle class worldwide. Now the snake is eating its tail. Its just groups of elites after other groups of elites. This is what we are witnessing. All of them are a big pile of shit and do not have the people's best interest in mind. People like us are the one's who defend thy neighbor,not them.

petkovplamen's picture

If there is sure to be an economic storm in the West/USA then the question really is when will USA start WWIII to make sure it happens BEFORE the economic storm.

White Owl's picture

They don't have those un-registered and non-reporting gold and silver mines in Siberia for nothing. Think about it.....

SAT 800's picture

I often think about it; and post about it. It's a government priority program; they pay high wages and benefits; they t ake their pick of the workers and they're working shifts; pounding the piss out of those hard rock deposits in Siberia; and none of it is reported anywhere. Officially, it doesn't even exist.

Amerikan Patriot's picture

It looks like it's 'battening down' the ruble as well.   :-)

Big Ben's picture

I was in Crete a couple months ago and one of the tour guides mentioned that last year the island was crawling with Russian tourists who bought up everything. She said she had problems finding shoes in the stores because the Russians had bought them all.

This year however, there are only a few Russian tourists.

BlindMonkey's picture

Why go to Crete when they have just annexed hundreds of miles of beautiful shoreline?  Keep the spending domestic when you can.

Big Ben's picture

Food is much better there. They use fresh ingredients and it makes all the difference.

SilvertonguedAngel's picture

Russia didn't annex anything.

Crimea had a referendum.

Volkodav's picture


Crimea is still celebrating.

BlindMonkey's picture

Huh?? Crimea had a referendum, applied for annexation to Russia and was accepted by the Duma. Feel free to correct my recollection but it was annexed.

BlindMonkey's picture

Ok. I looked at the down votes and went back trough the news. Annexation was a western term indicating a hostile poetical action.

It was actually a treaty of accession. Crimea applied by treaty to be a member and the Duma accepted.

I stand corrected on technical terms.