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Dow Turns Negative For 2014: Stocks Suffer Worst Week In 3 Years
Quite a day...
Dow Transports -6.9% - worst week in over 3 years - closed under 200DMA
Dow -2.6% on the week - given up all its gain year-to-date
Nasdaq -4.4% on the week - worst week in 30 months
S&P cash trades down to its 200DMA
VIX +40% on the week to 21 - 2nd biggest week in over 4 years, highest close in over 8 months
Treasury yields close at 2014 lows, down 10bps (30Y) to 17bps (5Y) but the modest steepening still leaves 2s30s under 260bps, flattest since 2012.
30Y Yields hit a 3.02% handle - 17 month lows; 10Y yields back under 2.30% - 16 month lows
The USDollar rallied for the 2nd day but ended the week -0.8% - the first losing week in 12 weeks and worst week in 6 months. USDJPY sold off the most in 14 months this week.
Gold +2.7 - best week in 6 months; Silver +2.9% - best week in 4 months
WTI Crude plunged 4.6% - worst week in 9 months; 2-week collapse 8.5% is biggest sicne June 2012.
* * *
But the fundamentals are still in tact?
* * *
Dow 16,576 12/31/13 close - Year-to-date, things are getting ugly fast..
Dow closed below its 200DMA
S&P closes at 200DMA
And S&P 500 futures kept free-falling after the cash close...
And off the post-FOMC highs...
On the week
VIX's 2nd biggest week in over 4 years...
VIX on the week...
and VIX on the day - with another fat finger...
Financial stocks are tumbling back down to credit...
Once again stocks tried to escape the bond reality (6 times today) but failed every time...
Treasuries rallied today ending the week notably lower in yield but steeper...
The USDollar rallied for the 2nd day but the 0.9% drop on the week is the worst in 6 months... This week's USDJPy drop was the biggest in 14 months
Oil slipped 4.25% but copper, gold, and silver all rose...
High yield credit spreads are at one-year highs... with IG credit up-in-quality trades continuing...
And stocks have a long way to fall in the short- and medium-term to catch down to credit reality
Charts: Bloomberg
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Well, I had a good week.
I had good day.
JBLU JetBlue Airways C... 10.06 -0.62 -5.81%
SKYW SkyWest, Inc. 7.23 -0.34 -4.49%
AAL American Airlines... 30.78 -1.20 -3.75%
UAL United Continenta... 43.74 -1.30 -2.89%
LUV Southwest Airline... 30.57 -0.75 -2.39%
SAVE Spirit Airlines Inc. 58.75 -1.44 -2.39%
DAL Delta Air Lines, ... 32.91 -0.80 -2.37%
Don't look at the mining sector. Still in the shitter.
What are rocks gonna be used for again??,. whene 3 entire generations prefer lead?
LMFAO at all you la la la la la la sofa king weeeeeeee-taaaaaaaads!!
Hey, Banger,
I'm impressed you have the guts to be hanging out here this afternoon after your 'Gartman-Like®' calls this morning...
Fuck you and go look at my posts saying it would bounce into this afternoon which it did.
"Bounce"?
I think you're looking at your charts upside-down...
Look moron
It bounced after I said it would this morning
So blow me
2 bitches fighting in a store for a belt.
u fuck lamez.
still dont get engraved in you fucking brains charts are meaningless, what go down day 1 go up day 2 and all is fucked up rigged ?
get a break, u fuckin need it, BOTH
Dammit Jim.....that cat is dead.
Read more about it here....or just check out Bruce.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-09/what-happens-next#comment-5307833
"I think you're looking at your charts upside-down..."
Should not have been drinkin' while reading that comment. Thank god for paper towels.
Fuck YOU ! It bounced alright but in the wrong direction, you moron.
Bounce? if that's a bounce I'm princess Diana.
She bounced a couple of times.
Dude; that's not going to improve your cognitive functions. And you might ruin a perfectly good keyboard.
Buy Barrick Gold
Youi go first. I'll be the reserves.
Buy Barrick Gold
Screw that....bypass management.....and get the real thing.
Isn't that the perfect time to look at mining?
HH,
You forgot 'Camera on a Stick'; down nearly 5% today alone...
lolz@ camera on a stick
LOL. I love that 'camera on a stick' ---what a tech. breakthrough; and who could have thought of it. There's only about 25 Chinese companies on E-Bay that want to sell you one for a price that'll drive them into bankruptcy.
Now Wall Shit can split it into 2 companies: one for sticks and one for cameras. The stupid fucking sheep will lap it up.
Seems downturn catalyst is all about Ebola. If not contained soon, and starts to gradually spread outside Africa , think of the consequences;
International Airlines passenger traffic plummets worldwide.
Auto usage and sales also declines in major urban areas, especially international gateway cities.
Crude oil and refined product production declines.
Job layoffs related to travel, petroleum and retail sector suddenly increase.
Federal and State budgets are suddenly strained to fight Ebola resulting in surcharges, user fees and higher taxes.
Federal Reserve ineffective as ammo to combat downturn already spent.
Of course, if you are a morbid opportunist, buy pharmaceuticals, hospital suppliers. healthcare, internet communications and funeral services but don't forget to wear your sanitized gown, gloves and facemask . Otherwise you will not get to enjoy your windfall profits.
.
Well if Connecticut is any indicator of things to come, it'll be a lot more serious than that. On the bright side, if FEMA camp cells come with wifi, Amazon sales will be through the roof!
UPS deliveries in full haz mat suits.
geno-econ,
Maybe you're right. If so, you'll see a huge stock rally if no new cases of Ebola outside of West Africa. Maybe Tuesday after the 3 day weekend.
Just so long as you know what to do about the "wonder rally"--short it, at the top.
A Farmer/ Rancher trading Airlines! Now that's something you don't see everyday<>
~Yippy ki-ya Mofo~
HELP, MISTER WIZARD!!!!
[seriously, am I the only one cheering this crash on?]
[sitting happily in Cash/Bond/Gold...]
[seriously, am I the only one cheering this crash on?]
Is THAT a rhetorical question?
[yes]
I shorted the Dow 30 last week. What could go wrong?
Nope, I'm cheering as well.
I got out of equities into cash in June, due to massive divergences in the market. Went short on CAC40 and was underwater until this week.
My take is we are very likely to see a corrective push up, but this only the start of the bigger corrective pattern.
Targetting a 30% plus correction, which should refresh the margin traders.
If we get a bounce "Last chance, party over!"
Good for you. I think the 30% correction is quite reaonable; but remember there are no bad profits; and getting out too soon isn't a crime.
Well lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Catching a glimpse of nipple won't excite many around here.
Nice to see red, but we ain't crashing yet.
pods
Agreed, but you have to admit watching the market nose-dive into a Friday close before a 3-day weekend is significant in the larger scheme of things.
I'm curious what technical damage this close has done to the averages...
Bond markets closed Monday. But NY and NASDAQ stock markets will be open Monday for business.
With little QE juice.
Going into a 3-day weekend, trannies are taking it in the tailpipe.
Is anyone really all that surprised?
Is that politically correct? well, it was funny, anyway.
Factoring in 30% leverage market wide in order to suck a bit of yield, this 4% drop is enough to completely wipe most of them out.
Could be. Could be the start of the fall, who knows.
I do know there is a lot of fiat sloshing around the world and that has to go somewhere.
Just saying lets not drop our drawers when we hear the first note of the music. This ain't a porno.
Good for foreplay, but let's not rip open the Trojan wrapper just yet.
pods
Ya I'm not buying it either. As doom porn goes, this doesn't cut it. I dumped the S&P index in my IRA at 1894 and went short with spxs a little while later at 27/share, and I'm still red on that. Until that's trading over 30 I'm not going to believe this is even a real 'correction', much less 'the big one' that is inevitable at some point.
"Dear there's a phone call for you" , "who is it?", "Someone named Margin". "Crash". "Dear, dear, are you all right".
recall that last time a 5% slide ended, S&P futures hit 1893. Coincidence that they are sitting at that price now? I think not. Stocks don't drop more than 5% during QE episodes, but since QE is about to end, this may be early, orderly selling in anticipation. If not, and it continues, expect QE4 to begin sooner than my expectation of Summer '15.
WW, this crash is planned by the big boys enabled through the Fed. Wipe the small funds and retail out in a big crash. Buy on the cheap...... when there is blood in the streets.
Wait... I thought we were already on QE4.
TWIST and TWIST 1.5 count right?
sterilized bond buying isn't inflationary, so I don't count it. it's all about inflation. that should be the Fed's motto. it's why they can toss 'employment' metrics aside at will, but they never ignore the (dis)inflationary.
TARP, TALF, TOMO, PPIP?
It's definitely "early, orderly selling"; the early part I don't care about; but it's professionally managed un-loading. I don't like to pretend that I know things like what the FED may or may not do; I have no idea. The meaning of orderly selling; is that the price doesn't just continue down. In orderly selling, the market wil be allowed to rally as much as possible next week, before the next round of "orderly selling"; because the idea is to sell at the highest average price. Sellers don't get anything out of driving prices down; as far as they're concerned it's just an un-welcome side effect. Markets "like" prices they have had experience with before. because, markets are really people; who are creatures of habit. T hat's why the orderly sellers back off at prices that don't scare all the horses at once. they need enough "buy the dippers" left alive who can still rationalize bidding it up again next week.
your point alludes to why Tylers' VWAP S&P charts are so informative. entry price matters.
btw, you don't have to pretend to know what the Fed is going to do. the US economy is in a deflationary spiral, the Fed is going to do what it can to avoid it. that's all the logic there is to it. the rest is divining the mechanics of how they stimulate reflation, which we've obviously seen over the past 6 years.
what happens when they try everything in the textbook and still gain no traction (by their measures), well, we're about to find out.
I'm bullish. This correction will only spur the central banks to give more free money to the people that really matter. Next week will be the best week for stocks in a decade.
are you being sarcastic; I can't tell ?
QE is ending. The roaches are running for the hills !!
Bear trap. Next Monday we see 1935/1940 again. Oligarchs have a nice BS rumor planned for the weekend.
I'll bet you a sandwich the the airlines don't bounce on Monday, and a majority close red.
Bond/equity convergence trade is over, so is short WTI/long PMs trade, so is short Russell trade. Game reset next Monday. You should have covered in the last 15 minutes today.
You're right. Obama will probably announce he has found a cure for ebola over the weekend, and new low super-saver fares for businees travelers that will augment a huge rush to book flights to Orlando so families can stand in line with foreigners at Disney World before enjoying the thrill of vomit-stained park rides.
Airlines have always been among the worst stocks for serious growth.
Heavily regulated, strong unions, dependent on unpredictable fuel costs, subject to ruinous lawsuits after crashes.
And now; Ebola...
And yet the airlines are among the only sectors maintaining any kind of US manufacturing. We're so screwed.
We have seen this "threats to growth" movie over and over, and shorts always get whacked by it.
We gotta get you to Texas for a night of High-Low Omaha, pot limit, $10,000 buy-in. I'm cooking dinner and breakfast. Interested?
Will you be 'comping' Slaughterer for breakfast?
Texas hospitality > Vegas hospitality
Those buffets ain't fit for humans.
Do you want in, Shark?
I keep forgetting when you refer to shorts you're talking about people who are foolish enough to sell lows. If the short sold at a reasonablly high price he can just wait out the fools rally and at least get back to whre he is now; although that;s not the right way to do it, of course. "Sometimes you have to hold 'em". at this point there's reason to have faith in the short side of the market; but the right way to do it is to sell the rallies. taking home shorts that have fulfilled their purpose, over the weekend is kind of an odd idea. Since we know so little about Monday; since it didn't arrive yet. It would be very odd if the prices just continued to decline; because THE DECLINER HAS ALREADY TAKEN HIS FOOT OFF T HE MARKETS THROAT. The most natural thing to expect is another rally, maybe for most of the week; or a couple of days, and then you can go short again.
Bah, everyone knew everything, after market close Friday of course.
I still owe you a Pasta Jay's dinner, SD.
Want to come play some cards, and have a home-cooked meal instead?
Otherwise, I'll be in Northern AZ in the Spring, if you want to run rim-to-rim-to-rim.
Sounds good!
Which one? Running the canyon or playing cards in Texas? I'll guess cards, 'cause running the canyon sounds like a bitch.
It's so darn hard to predict the future, especially the part that didn't happen yet" ---famous baseball catcher, I think.
Probably, but stop shitting on our parade!
Super Tuesday is just 4 days away!
Margin call Monday is first.
you can pretty much expect a bounce over 200 DMAs on Monday, then a resumption of the slide if the Fed doesn't come out with some more dovish talk. Evans is speaking on monday, after all. keep your powder dry.
Followed by Take-it-in-the-ass Tuesday, Wipe-out Wednesday, Throw-up Thursday and then just plain old Friday.
Freefall Friday.
Isn't the stock market (NYSE) closed Monday?
And what is this Super Tuesday ?.
How could this happen right after they stopped QE? I thought that everything was fine?
Or did they mean that like when Mrs. pods says things are "fine?"
pods
"they" found a scapegoat (ebola)
kitchen sink time?
Nahhh
You're just another fucking idiot pods.
Wow, that was a solid one there HB. Learn to control your rage so you might actually come up with something good.
And cut downs usually work best if you avoid crass words like dick or cunt. Just trying to help ya our there huckleberry.
pods
I think it's time for your nap.
I told you not to leave that glass of Jack Daniels on the table.
Next time put it on the counter....he hasn't figured out how to get up there yet.
Pure coincidence!
30Y Yields hit a 3.02% handle - 17 month lows; 10Y yields back under 2.30% - 16 month lows
Come to Papa
see ya'll at 10yr @1% and 30yr < 2%
Great screenname and post.
i'll be a cannibal tonite ... if you get my drift
I will enjoy your cousin, Oberon, as I think about those INTC puts I closed today.
Cheers!
I'm feeling the hunger myself. Cheers.
Thank you, sir -- may I have another?
Buy high sell low?
Muppets puking their guts out all weekend....and gee, I thought a 'green close Friday' was a done deal this morning, 'cuz'? Snoogins.
E*Trade Baby has Ebola-like vomiting and sharting
Record Margin Debt (aka Leverage) for The Win!
+1 for the visual, lol.
on the keyboard.
.
E*Trade Baby has, in the past week or so, slobbered and drooled on every person and surface that's been within 3 meters of him.
And what is this "E*Trade Baby" ?
My analyst says a short rally from here - back to 2050 or therabouts within the next 4-6 weeks and then down for reals.
Have you named your anal cyst yet?
Bwahnee Fwank's revenge.
https://www.greedometer.com/blog/
huh. wouldn't let me insert a link.
oh and +1 for "anal cyst."
"I'll take "the rapists" for $500, Alex..."
.
Edward Quince
TFD - B.
you have an analyst?
I have an anal probe but the wife doesn't appreciate it the way she should..
No one can make predictions like this. if the market rallies to 1960 again next week; short it. but that's so abreviated, it's left out most of what I needed to say. Well, I explained all this the other day, I guess you could look it up.
This is a public service announcement at the request of the NJ police department. Stay indoors and have enought food and water for 2 to 4 weeks ...
If the ZH deer and Donkey Kong ever show up in the same post, I'm entering my bunker.
Bunker?
Submarine dude..
I can't afford it. Never BTFD. :(
I hope your Submarine doesn't "bounce" like the market did today.
yeah...all those dumb asses who been drinking the fucking "fool-aide" keep talking and leave whats left of your funny money in Stawks...
and keep talking shit about all of us who been stackin real money for the past 7 years...
just peaked into the hideaway...
ALL of that Silver is still there AND SHINNIN'...
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.....
Huzzah!
and if shit couldnt get any worse for this shithole bankrupted fucking banker controlled government and its intellectually lazy overweight consumers...
"The European Central Bank will discuss next week whether to begin laying the groundwork to add the Chinese yuan to its foreign-currency reserves, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
Governing Council members gathering in Frankfurt for their Oct. 15 mid-month meeting will consider the move, said the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions aren’t public. Should officials eventually decide to buy the currency, initial purchases would be small and might start in a year at the earliest, one of the people said.
Such a measure by the ECB would mark a major step in the internationalization of China’s currency, also known as the renminbi. While China is the world’s second-largest national economy, the yuan isn’t ranked among the most-held foreign reserve assets, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. The U.S. dollar leads at 61 percent of holdings.
The agenda of the Governing Council is confidential, an ECB spokesman said, declining to comment further on the matter. Speaking in Washington today, former Bundesbank President Axel Weber predicted a greater international role for the yuan. “The emergence of the renminbi will be a big factor,” he said. “You will have an appreciation of the renminbi.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/ecb-weighing-first-step-to-buyi...
bye bye Federal Reserve NOTE...
Degenerate tit-licker!!!
You make that sound like a bad thing.
Yea....well I'm sure they all got out safely at the top + went all in short too...yea.
.
Such a claim would only have government credibility.
I reported my position when I placed it and when I closed it. in real time. I'm not particularly interested in the stock market, I'd trade dog shit if there was a market for it and good charts were available.
BTFD - The Fed can print more that you and I can hang in on the short side of the market.
Wow look at that closing on the lows of the day !!!
Made 4k today shorting the Vix. Wife and I will enjoy a fine dinner out, financed with BTFD'ERS cash.
wow, you must have been nimble!
Good. never turn down free money. I made $10,437.50 overnight on a position shorting the S&P; I reported the position here when I put it on, and when I closed it out.
When do they start hyping the Christmas shopping season and Black Friday?
They moved Black Friday up again. It was this past Tuesday.
Thanks for the big laugh! I REALLY needed it.
Well played.
When do they start hyping the Christmas shopping season and Black Friday?
I THINK IT WAS in mid-June. but I have to check my flyers and email inbox sprecial day-only buys.
And I have to confess.
I am sick of being targeted as a consumer. Get Off My Cloud. I am sick of flyers/sales and free shipping. Got all i need thanks.
Bens helicopter took a SAM to the face
glad i shorted the death-cross/death-star on the IWMs at 117.5 & 114 against the CNBC reco
every one of those charts says the dip is bought or the whole thing comes crashing down.
since the fed has the world on an inflation creation scheme setting the world up for the next round of qeternity this is where it pumps more air into the bubble.
Very perceptive; which is why the dip will probably be bought; but then we can just short the index again when it looks right; because we know it's a bear market, simple, eh?
It would have made my weekend if the S&P had convincingly broken its 200 DMA.
But I'm patient. I have a bottle of champagne in the fridge for S&P 500.
maybe get an ice-bath ready for monday morning...
it'll be five o'clock somewhere breaking bad beneath boller bands.
cheers,
janus
I am obviously not in your bracket financially. I can afford a cheap hooch rose. Porch Climber Punch. But I am ready to twist the top off.
Why do you care about the 200DMA; it has no meaning.
::SHOCKED PAIN OBOLA FACE::::
My vote for the "got out in time" champion is The Bernank.
nope. remember alan greenscam?
Yeah but he is now busy back-tracking...so it is coming. Greenscum is publishing "opinions". Covering his naked butt.
Record volume day for VXX?
Is all this the result of the giant of ecnomic growth Germany finally sliding into recession? The EU is fucked without Germany, they are the only ecnomic unit in the EU that was growing. France is fucked, and the end of the Russian markets for food, cars, machine tools, electronics, consumer products of all sorts. If the EU keeps sliding, the world economy is going to take another notch down in growth expectations. Plus you have the fear of any Fed interest rate hike or slowing of the QE. Yep, stocks could get beaten up very fucking badly, as they should! Like how over fucking valued can any market get, before it corrects even a little?
yeah, japan in recession ... europe heading there ... no doubt things will get worse in china.
imo, todays action probably no one wants to hold thru weekend with ebola wildcard ... to risky if someone(s) quarantined in NYC.
DAX broke though a solid support line today that it bounced off 3 times throughout last year. The next one is 25% below where we are. Can EU take a 25% further plunge in German stocks? I think not.
Hate technical analysis (it's all BS to me), but if that's the way the rest are looking at charts, there's little room for optimism. They'll be dumping stocks like there's no tomorrow, come Monday.