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Cliff Asness Warns On QE-Blowback "Nothing Is Over Yet", Slams "Mostly Dishonest" Krugman
Excerpted from Cliff Asness Op-Ed, originally posted at RealClearPolitics,
Quantitative easing (QE) and other inventive forms of loose monetary policy have simply been less than hoped or feared. Some may declare Fed policy a great success as we're not in a depression, but they can't show any counter-factual, and given that this money has largely sat dormant, albeit presumably lowering risk premia (raising asset prices), it's likely we'd have a similar record-weak recovery with or without it. How this is a victory for one side of the debate or another is beyond me, but obviously clear to Paul and his back-up singers. Of course, it's also clear to Paul that the 2009 stimulus package saved us from this same second Great Depression (but more stimulus would of course have been much better). Yep, and if we traded good cash for just one more "clunker" we'd be growing at 5% per annum by now with a normal labor participation rate.
...
In a field without a broad set of counter-factuals we all stick too much to our priors and ideologies, and perhaps I'm doing that now. But at least I see it, and that's always step one. Paul [Krugman] is stuck on step zero (if he ever gets up to "making amends" I will be around but given his history he might never get to me). But, if you'd like to advance past step zero, Paul, we're still waiting on why Keynesianism failed to fix the Great Depression (no doubt not quite enough stimulus; just one more Hoover Dam would have done it, or, as they called it back then, "Dams for Clunkers"), strongly predicted a deep post-WWII depression, didn't predict stagflation, and generally was on a the downward spiral to the intellectual dustbin until the great recession resuscitated it, not as a workable intellectual doctrine, but as an excuse for politicians to spend on their constituents and causes.
Also remember, much like when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, nothing is over yet. The Fed has not undone its extraordinary loose monetary policy and is just now stopping its direct QE purchases. When monetary policy is back to historic norms, and economic growth is once again strong, a normal number of people are seeking and getting jobs, and inflation has not reared its head, I think we can close the books on this one, still recognizing that forecasting a risk and having it fail to come to bear is not a cardinal sin. But which one of those things has happened yet? Paul, and others, should by now know the folly of declaring victory too early.
...
So, to those who've been waiting for one of us to say it, you can have half the mea culpa you clearly want, but mostly Paul is wrong, and twisting the facts, and doing so as rudely and crassly as possible, yet again. The rest of the JV team of Keynesians who have also jumped on board are doing the same thing, just with more class and less entertainment value than the master.
Now for a real prediction: Paul will continue to be mostly wrong, mostly dishonest about it, incredibly rude, and in a crass class by himself (admittedly I attempt these heights sometimes but sadly fall far short). That is a prediction I'm willing to make over any horizon, offering considerable odds, and with no sneaky forecasts of merely "heightened risks." Any takers?
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Yeah...Fuck Krugman!
That dumb lying son of a bitch is gonna hurt alot of people.
The only condolence is the people who believe him are morons.
That doesnt change that they outnumber us in this mob rule lynch mob society we live in.
Fuck.
RIPS
Some may declare Fed policy a great success as we're not in a depression...
Can't... stop... laughing...
Don't worry. Everybody who gets Obola will switch to ObolaCare and the spending, absolutely massive spending on death camps, will boost the shit out of the economy and the last handful of unlucky fuckers will live happily ever after.
What...?
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor???
Wars can get started over less... ;-)
i told you..
Krugman is on crack...
Krugman is the former Iraqi propaganda minister under Sadam Hussein. Their behavior is too eerily similar. Does anyone remember that guy????? I do.
That would be Baghdad Bob.
http://www.cfif.org/htdocs/freedomline/current/in_our_opinion/baghdad_bo...
Bearded PhD Potato, fit for boiling.
The historical illiteracy in this country is astounding.
It was in 61' that the Brazilians bombed Dutch Harbor. Look it up!
There was a movie called Animal House...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
"...forget it, he's rolling"
1941 might be more appropriate. Krugman flying endlessly over LA, looking for German planes to shoot down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPnwlNvwBLI
American educational levels are abysmal.
Obviously folks are getting educated about CNN, otherwise your so right.
http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/layoffs-at-cnn-begin_b241993
Relax. Was joke. Everybody knows Syrians bomb Harbor of Pearls.
With Sarin, too - why we didn't retaliate I'll never know.
Lmfao, ObolaCare. Congrats sir, you made my day.
Just in time for the election.
You will never convince me the outbreak isn't for real. The timing is more than suspicious though...
curiousity got the best of me, so i looked at krugmans blog, and, sure enough, the newest post is a sort of reply to this article. It doesnt really say much, but the last line is "don't lecture the chairman of the fed on monetary policy"
I guess in his world, us mere mortals aren't allowed to question the anyone in the eccles building, and should just sit back and let them do whatever they want to our country and our currency
Don't Patronize Him
Not even to leave flaming bags of dogshit?
When's the fun Knucles we've grown used to?
It is not your currency. It belongs to the Federal Reserve. One day, if they think you have to much of their currency in one of their banks, Poof! they took some back.
don't ask in his blog why the FED has two semi-conflicting mandates, which makes any statement on how the FED "is doing" a matter of... interpretation
And for every interpretation, there is an equal and opposite, reinterpretation.
Krugman is an intelectual fraud serving his masters in the even greater Zionist fiat banking fraud that stole the productivity and enslaved generations and nations. The man is a pawn of the lowest class masquerading as a servent of the hidden (cowardly) undermining theives of the Zionist tribe. He is also wrong about almost everything and fucking ugly too.
They've really phi led us this time.
"Not a white man left standing."
Friggin free shit army is on the move.
I still think Illinois will vote Republican for the first time in 2000 years...but it won't be enough to save the State.
"Rage Against the Machine." Hasn't meant phi king shit.
Plucking Jews. "They've done it again."
Got away with it that is.
"Just following their Anglo Saxon Lord and Master" methinks.
Still...I think they're breaking wind over the whole "Jewish State" thing this go around. Allied with Saudi's? WTF's up with that one?
After the Germans bombed Pearly Harbour, nothing was over yet;" good point, because we had still to invade Africa to rescue the French Navy. And several other things; I think.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do...
www.job-reports.com
wow, Krugman pays you $7k to fellate him?
Krugman mostly wrong??? He's been completely wrong since he left his mama's womb.
not sure about - "since he left his mamas womb", mb before he left he was still completely wrong
At least he's still breast feeding. This is the root of his desire for "more".
This could be the greatest night of our lives, but you're gonna make it the worst. Ooohh, we're not gonna go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble. Well just kiss my ass from now on, I'm not gonna take this anymore!!! Krugman, he's a dead man! Holder...
CUNTscience of a LIBERAL.
Liberal. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Yes, "progressive" is the correct label.
Krugman's been sleeping in Bernanke's bunker.
Yeah, they're playing twister and having pillow fights in their lingerie with Henry Kissinger.
"when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"
WTF??????????????????????????????????????????????
Where in the Hell did you find this quack??????!!!!!!!!
Tylers - how can you insult our intelligence by publishing this idiot - and what kind of idiots are you that you didn't even know that analogy was idiocy in the first place?????????????????????
Does your credibility reflect itself by this totally WTF fool?
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
Lighten up, Francis.
I've been raging too much too.
My frenimies actually shaved my mustache to look like Hitler prior to my last job interview.
Made me laugh actually. Took about a month to grow that thing back right. Got the job though.
Hmmmmmmm....
Take a valium. He was making a joke. Quoting scenes from "Animal House" is nostaligic for those of us that saw it in the theatres...
Animal House.
Although I bet you could insert that into an MSM broadcast and not a viewers eyebrow would be lifted...
Can't wait for the brilliance of todays yewt's to take the reins of this shit wagon.
President Camacho can't be much worse than....
You fucked up. You trusted us.
The utes of America...
Here we go again...whats a grit?...lol.
(My Cousin Vinny)
Yes, maam, I"d like sum fried grits, pork gravy, and white toast." Hmm, good.
"Bring me four fried chickens and a coke."
"Move over Swanson, I'm driving! "
Was the movie idiocracy real and I'm the dream?????
It was a documentary, as was the Matrix series.
Dude, go rent Animal House or get laid.
No no no no no
Rent the movie Don't procreate
I used to respect you . . . I see I was wrong.
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Pour a drink and take a deep breath or two..., really.
We've all had these kind of days...
(maybe you'll respect him in the morning...)
Pull my finger.
Is it supposed to be this soft?
Great advice, knuks.
Shouldn't you need a license for that, or sumpin'?
Screw that movie, it sucked.
Two birds.
One stone.
Mars, you're weak minded, albeit young fucktard. STFU and go back to your hole. It's a quote from John Belushi, Animal House.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
GFY.
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Listen up, missy(Mars)...I'll say it out loud. Go Fuck Yourself. Now, is that better? You're either autistic or fucking retarded. Which is it?
That's no way to talk to a woman. Obviously its a woman because screen name is some zodiac astroligism crap and know nothing about war history. I remember watching "Saving Private Ryan" when it came out and during one of the first scene where they are landing on the beaches at Normandy my girlfriend at the time leans over an asks me who was shooting at them? I died a little bit inside.
Yeah flying, the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor . . .
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Who are you? You have been here for 2.5 years. Has anyone seen this punk before? And you emerge now to denigrate an American institution? Boy, your nightmares have just begun.
Matians; it was martians from Mars; just tell her that; and if she just nods and says, oh. she's a keeper.
Only after she passes the "Around the World" test.
In years of ZH articles, it is hard to find handful occasions of Tyler missing something much less noticeable than mixing up germans for japanese. I guess junks are for thinking ZH would miss it. Without junking you myself, I recommend you to take it easy. It was a joke. Now if you admitted that you rushes in your judgement of ZH, there would be many up arrowa for that.
Jesus Harold Christ! Can there really be that many people who haven't seen Animal House? Or at least be familiar with the reference? Fuck.
I'm sitting here astounded that so many would-be pedants are not only unfamiliar with Animal House, which I suppose in 2014 is forgivable, but who also couldn't be bothered clicking the link.
Awful. Rectal cancer awful.
Overfed, they must be French. You've seen their lame attempts at movie making. Bozhe Moi, they love Jerry Lewis and mimes.
Cliff Asness making Belushi references in a public finance venue that isn't regarded as fringe media... WTF???
Really?
Forget it, he's rolling...
Apparently you missed the pre-nwo era
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep-xgd_eETE
Screw whoever down arrowed me - and anyone else who does as well.
You are such an idiot that you don't understand that being ignorant of one of the most important events in the 20th Century means whoever wrote this is an ignorant fool - and that the editors who allowed it to get published with the idiocy intact - are just as big a list of fools as well.
This is totally insulting to the inttelligence of ZH readers at-large, wwith the exception of the idiots who fail to grasp the import of this error.
Fools.
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So... you're gonna double-down on being ignorant?
Hey, I nominate Marsinscorpio President of............the Social Club!
About time someone showed some sense . . . ;-))
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^^^^^^^^
junk, junk, junk!
All you have to do is drive us to the Food King!
"If I was in your shoes, I'd be, uh..."
"Leaving! What a good idea"
The purpose of writing this is to communicate - I can't help it if you old fucks fail to understand that he failed to communicate by using a quote from a 1,000-year old movie that is in the minds of a miniscule percentage of the population, without referencing it first. That movie doesn't even show up on the "Siding Shows" anymore.
So if you didn't know about the movie - and the quote from it - he looks like what he is - a failure at communicating effectively - instead looking like an idiot to all those who aren't a million-years old like those of you who are so fluent with antique movies.
You people need to stick with quacking about finances - and stay out of the column-writing business.
But that's OK - I know all this went right over your inexperienced heads.
And that idiot needs an editor who knows something about communicating to those who lack the "special knowledge" you oldsters possess . . .
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^
junk this fool
It helps looking at the source before going postal
Excerpted from Cliff Asness Op-Ed, originally posted at RealClearPolitics
And for those not familiar with Cliff (beyond making every list of the funniest Bloomberg terminal names).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliff_Asness
It's almost like he's hoping Krugman will publicly pull a MarsInScorpio... Food Fight!
Mars: So, now you're a millionaire like me? Somehow I fucking seriously doubt that biatch.
So how did you get there - steal it . . . inherit it . . . pay off gov insiders . . . fraud . . . con man . . . what crimes did you commit?
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I wanted to support you, because I get tired of how much mental mastubation occurs on this site. But, I cannot.
You, Sir, are an asshole.
We all do business with our friends - it's just that some of them are our "asshole" friends.
And only a person who thinks their opinion is so important in someone else's life would presume to call them an asshole.
If I had given up when someone din't like me, I would never have accomplished anything in life.
Which explains how I got the tough skin you see tonight . . .
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You are so fucking shit-all stupid there is no hope for you. Let me guess ... every day up until now you got a blue ribbon just for showing up, right?
The author is obviously writing for a more mature audience than you represent. Now go back to playing with your Star Wars Lego sets, sonny - it's almost past your bedtime.
See if you can guess what I am now.
A Zit!...Get It?...
Damn dude, double down on it...lol.
How bout this one:
Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
[a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.
[aloud]
Captain Renault: Everybody out at once!
Better? Its even older than Animal House ;-)
Or maybe this one:
These are facts, historical facts, not schoolbook history, not Mr. Wells' history, but history nevertheless.
Paula Alquist Anton: If I were not mad, I could have helped you. Whatever you had done, I could have pitied and protected you. But because I am mad, I hate you. Because I am mad, I have betrayed you. And because I'm mad, I'm rejoicing in my heart, without a shred of pity, without a shred of regret, watching you go with glory in my heart!
its posts like this that keep me coming back here..
Well captain, it just goes to show how the internet can get you a quote in no time, and make you look like a cultured individual . . .
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Where's the head on your scorpion!
In your wiener.....
(Insert really bad laugh here.)
You ever here someone with a really bad laugh? The only thing worse is a shrill voice from a female. "Like claws to a chalkboard."
I have chunks in my stool bigger than you...
Love the Phil Hartman reference! Sucks that some crazy cootch took him away too soon.
I'm sure Cliff will be fine in spite of his "poor communication skills" since he has more walking around money than you are likely to earn in your lifetime, even with all of the money you save living in mom and dads basement. You should just stop posting now and let the grownups talk.
Logged in just to down arrow. "The purpose of writing this is to communicate..." Apparently, according to MarsInScorpio, to the lowest and most ignorant common denominator, because if you make references someone doesn't catch, then YOU'RE the asshole....
Adding MarsInScorpio to my list of evidence proving mankind is doomed.
Mars
the statement was LINKED for fux sake. All you had to do was click on the statement and you too could have been in on the joke. Many of us did not need to because our life is full of rich cultural references...like Animal House...but you instead just went off half cocked....unless you are putting us on in which case I'd have to say you have a talent for the long con...
You're digging deeper, dipshit. Sometimes it's better to STFU instead of opening your pie hole and removing all doubt that you're a fucktard.
As I said to before, GFY.
You're the idiot - and you don't even understand why.
Which makes you a clueless idiot . . .
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^^^^^^^^
junk him NOW!
No sweet heart, it is not a fair fight, this is dogpiling. Or blanket partying (are my references too old for him to understand, I'm not sure, shit).
o.k.
ill leave him alone...
BUT IM NOT TAKING BACK THE JUNKS...
ok...?
Go have another drink, and play with your toys . . .
Obviously you, and many others here tonight are frustrated and need a hate-speech outlet.
Glad am strong enough with my self-concept to know nothing you say really matters.
And I don't know if you'd be strong and nimble enough to perform under a blanket with me anyways . . . ;-))
Personally, I'm having a blast yanking your chains - you are sooooooo easy.
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LISTEN...
YOU DIRTY LITTLE DRONE!
JUST STFU!
thank you..
My advice to you is to start drinking heavily.
Your avatar would be proud.
Oh man. Summer between middle and high school... we bought tickets for some fluff PG flick and snuck in..... never the same.
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1994-05-13/
I'm being a bitch and posting so you can't take this back when you need to.
Animal House. John Belushi. Famous rant from a movie.
And I'm being a bitch and telling you something you are incapable of grasping - when you use quotes from somethig the reader has no knowledge of, you failed to communicate.
The purpose is to communicate. This quack failed his purpose. You people failed to know enough about column writing to know that he failed. All you people know is your self-anointed super intelligence and snarky remarks about how bright you are and how dumb I am.
That's why you're writing for international publications . . . because you know how this works.
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now your going piss me off...
going after the MSCREANT...
JUNK HIM!
I'm good baby, I got this.
i think he ran away...
too bad...i had some good stuff to say, too!
oh well, ill go thrash BANGALORE...
where are you, banger...come get your beating....
see ya, ms..
Have you personally met MSCREANT? Do you even know if it's really a woman - or a homosexual trannie who wishes he was?
See, you are soooooo easy.
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If I was you, I'd be uh.....
LEAVING, what a good idea!
"...when you use quotes from somethig the reader has no knowledge of, you failed to communicate."
And its HIS FAULT you don't know, failed to relate to it and sucked an entire thread belly aching about it?
Not just his - but his and his editors. You are writing for everyoe who is exposed to the article - not just a bunch of gnostic movie lovers who remember the Golden Oldies.
Put simply, everyone who doesn't know about the quote thinks he is an idiot - just as I did. That qualifies as a Epic Fail in the column writing business. (I've only done this for about 44 years, wrote for several Top 5 newspapers, was a publisher, helped set up the Fox TV network , , , but what do i know compared to the mass of attackers reveling in their drunken hate-speech tonight?)
Yes - he showed he and his editors don't know what they are doing. Sorry, but that's just the way that it is.
And as for dragging thi out, I just wrote one post and was going to let it end there. But NOOOOOOOOOOOOO - I got a bunch of drunken, sexually frustrated, super geniuses living in their second midle-aged life who decided they were going to show me how smart they are, and how dumb I am.
So off we go.
But if they want to attack - screw them, I'll bite back.
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Well, I'm not drunk (yet, second beer) or frustrated or a super genius and you only get one middle age and this is it for me, I'm 55 today, wish me happy birthday and I'll let it go.
But now you know what the reference is to, whippersnapper ;-)
Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday!!!!
Like me, you are officially Geriatric . . .
(Couldn't let it go - Sorry.)
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Then the question becomes will he beat you with his cane, or shank you with his AARP card?
Bingo!!
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Happy Birthday! And only 55, so young, so much to look forward to. Now on to your third beer. Cheers
Did you think the "dams for clunkers" quote was meant to be accurate, too? Just curious.
Grow up.
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"I've only done this for about 44 years..." And you didn't get the Animal House reference? Because it is an "old" movie? Even if you had been doing whatever "this" is since birth, you're still older than me and you're claiming age-related cinematic obscurity?
Good fucking lord.
@Mars. You're getting me grief.
What's your deal? You need to calm the hell down. Notice we both made German comments with many many replies following. Now notice the distinct lack of people calling me an asshole and telling me to stfu.
I read your comments here and i have no idea what you're pissy about.
DI..
the difference was you showed honesty, integrity and humility...
you're a good guy...
you have also learned early a very valuable lesson ....
true in combat, ZH fight club and life...
KEEP YOUR HEAD DOWN...AND KEEP YOUR ASS LOWER THAN YOUR HEAD...
never seen you post before...hopefully we see more of you...maybe i can learn from you, too...
WELCOME TO FIGHT CLUB!
Settle down. We are laughing at you, not with you.
WOW - where's my nail gun? I'm being laughed at by people most others consider to be 24-K whack jobs . . .
I'm crushed, truly, truly, crushed.
Do all of you understand you don't mean squit in my life? You are inconsequential. Meaningless. Irrelevant. Devoid of substance.
Now go back to making bad jokes and interprepting the thinking of the oligarches . . .
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Mars, you're still talking. When you find yourself in a hole, stop fucking digging. You're a fucktard becoming a maggot fucktard.
laughed at by us...
you truly are SORRY!
junk his ass...
Sweetheart you are at fight club. This is what happens. We are not of consequence in your life, you are correct. But like the Krugman being picked on in the article, you have not learned to let it go when it ain't working. There is no reason to be crushed, none. I fuck up daily and apologize to folks daily. I'll even apologize to you.
Sorry for being part of the dog pile. We cannot afford to alienate anyone.
You will feel different about this later. You will smile. You had your ass kicked at fight club. And you will emerge from it with callouses, bruises, and a smile. You will.
Make nice if you must but we have a saying where I am from for those cursed with misplaced arrogance exceeded only by their verbosity, 'fuck him!'
Paint it, that was really deep.
Obviously, you are the lead thinker in your social groups.
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MsCreant - are you really a woman?
Just curious.
The premise of your post is that there is some winning and losing asspect to this place. Sorry to break it to you, but there isn't.
If everyone here thinks I'm dog dirt, so what? I get to keep my life, my wife, my son, my portfolio, my church, (to which I'm going to have to make an altar call for the foul language - bad boy.) If everyone here down arrows me, nothing changes in my life. Nothing.
Only people with an exagerated sense of self-importance would think that it does.
As for the people failing completely to gfrasp my messsage - well, it just goes to show how shallow they are. They are just posting emotionally - with no thought whatsoever of what I said. It's just them saying, "I'm filled with anger, and his guy is going to be my dumping ground tonight!!
OK, so it's cheaper than Viagra - or for the women, floozing at the bar for a hookup tonight.
Thank you for using your feminine-side to sooth my feelings. But frankly, I've had a great stress relief tonight, and I'm going to make high-energy love to my wife, now that I've got all the day's BS out of my system.
For those of you who don't have a hot wife, or have to resort to toys, go ahead and keep telling me how dumb I am, and how brilliant you are.
I'll love you anyway. Even you captain, fascinated with referring to my ass as much as you did tonight . . . reminds me of a First Class PO I had in the torpedo room of a sub I served aboard. (Where I learned that if they can get under your skin, they will make your life miserable.)
Have a good night swetheart.
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Mind if we dance wif yo' dates?
Back To The Future!
referred once...
why you trying to highlite it
trolling for some SLONG...
sailor boy...
im not interested...
Sorry, but I don't spend my time with people who wallow in the mud.
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used to...
someone had to...
remember, there are 2 types of people in the armed forces...
infantrymen, and those who support infantrymen...
and you, from your posts,
ARE NOT WORTHY TO BE AN INFANTRYMAN'S JOCK STRAP...
have a good night
:)
Captain, let's see you take a ride in a ship designed to sink and built by the lowest bidder . . .
As far as the infantryman's deal goes, I respect getting your fanny out there and getting shot at - reminds me of being on the bridge of a sub dropping off SEAL teams on the coast of Nam. Maybe a 100 years off the beach - getting shot at with nowhere to go - sub sails are made of fiberglass and a .22 can go through it.
At least you could run away.
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