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The Fed Is About To Pull The QE Plug... And This Happens
Moments ago, the Fed concluded its latest $931MM POMO, with just 6 more POMOs left ever (at least until another QE program is unveiled), and judging by the last week's performance, the market has finally figured this out. And Goldman, which has been pounding the table on shorting the 10 Year for about a year now, and in the process crucifying even more muppets, has some bad news for TSY shorts: global growth is crashing.
Over the last week, global equities continued to slide, prolonging a trend that started in early September, according to the “first principal component” of a set of global equity indices (see Exhibit 1). And more recently, the S&P 500 and Germany’s DAX have succumbed to the pressure too, after a period of relative resilience. Declines have picked up steam. Over the last month, many of the markets we track experienced monthly declines that rank in the 5th percentile or worse, relative to their own past histories (see Exhibit 2). The S&P 500, DAX, and Canada (amongst others) had 1st percentile-sized declines. Said differently, monthly sell-offs of this size occur about once every five years.
Visually:
This is how Goldman explains the series of stunning charts:
This re-pricing of the equity market’s view of growth has far outpaced the small tick lower in the GS Current Activity Index, which dropped a quarter-point to 3.25% in September (owing in large part to a sharp drop in the US PMI).
Perhaps it simply means that the GS Current Activity Index was woefully inaccurate and misrepresenting a rebound that was clearly never going to take place?
So what then? Well, if the market is correct, expect a complete collapse in US economic indicators: "later this week, the first early macro numbers for October, including the Philadelphia Fed survey, will help us gauge the equity market’s sell-off in the context of the macro data picture. The consensus view calls for a slight deterioration in the Philly Fed survey, but the equity market’s growth selloff of appears to go well beyond this deterioration too."
Explanations aiming to crucify more muppets aside and to justify rumors of yet another QE program from the Fed in the coming weeks (due to Russia, Ebola and, gasp, another harsh winter just around the corner) here is what is going on in the world according to Goldman's Wavefront US Growth Basket:
But it's not just the US that is in freefall: so is the entire world.
So.... when is the Fed hiking rates again?
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Whocouldaknowed the markets would drop with the end of QE in sight?
Does this count as a "taper tantrum"?
Elsewhere: NBC alarmed as even some liberals no longer believe Islam is 'religion of peace' http://tinyurl.com/o9xar3h
Maybe it's bullish that the price is down? It's *always* bullish all the time.
They're no fun (markets), they fell right over...
I can only imagine how stressful it is to keep producing bullshit charts and releasing public lies about "growth". Time for a nap just reading this shit, let alone trying to produce the bucket of lies.
I do believe this is a Fed test currently, gauging the market response. Same thing happened after QE1 and 2 when they left PM's alone as they rose. Same thing happened last year when Ben said "We are planning on tapering" and the 10Y went to 2.99%.
I think they are watching the markets to see what happens, because the FED is completely useless and only knows how to be reactive, not proactive.
What else would be expected as the $58 trillion in total credit market debt outstanding was never addressed.
With QE, the FED just let those 'in the know' get out at a higher price.
no wonder the CNBC money honeys were talking about QE-4
Oh wow! The Fed is going to counterfeit at a slower rate than it was in the past. The bloodsucking leech is going to parasitize me a little bit slower so I don't die and cause it to die too. Whoop-te-fuckin'-do. The Fed can kiss my ass. I long and hope for the day when my children will live in a true republic that is democratically organized and capitalism is returned.
I should stop following Goldman's trading "advice",
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013...
Ebola-infected UN doctor dies in Germany, 41 more monitored http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/14/ebola-infected-un-doctor-dies-in-germany-41...
Oil down more than two bucks, gold up over $4.00, as we speak.
Praise the lord for all small favors.
hey fed, keep compressing
This thing they keep calling "growth" is, of course, nothing more than inflation. And they of course know that that is the expected result form money-printing: prices go up, buying power goes down. Big effing mystery, that.
That plus every numpty with an economics degree in Washington fudging the numbers to make the Dems look like genius'....
Yeah, first the Fed will "gauge" the market...
Then, they will BACK OFF (but still go on with moar QE™)
one false move...
and everyone's 401k's gets shot
hostage takers
The scraps of paper are . . . just paper. As soon as an individual can say this about their own 'wealth' and smile, we'll be ready to take back our representative government.
Without massive stimulus all these bullshit economies would contract fast. 6% of the US GDP is money printing and twice that is various forms of welfare and direct gov jobs.
If the fed REALLY stopped printing, 30 million jobs would vaporize. Similar happens around the world. Which is why the fed will not and can not stop printing.
Yeah. No one could have seen it comin'
Islam peaceful yes but they're not stupid. If Israel thinks they're going to live peacefully after all the war crimes they've committed and everything they've done...
"Islam peaceful yes"
LOL idiot.
What you fail to appreciate, you ignorant twat, is that "Christian" governments/nations have killed tens of millions more people than Muslim governments/nations.
From the Crusades, to witch burnings, to heretic burnings, to the slaughter of indigenous people around the world - you are simply blind to Christian violence.
And as for the Jews - whenever they've had the chance - they've been as bloodthirsty as anyone else. Indeed, they were expelled from Cyprus in the 3rd century BC after massacring tens of thousands of Greeka and Romans in a failed attempt to set up a Jewish state there.
Of course, those Romans were just "anti-Semites" and not responding to Judaic fanaticism and barbarity, right, Bucko?
You're a borderline moron. Read a fucking book why don't you.
Speaking of ignorant... No government that kills millions is Christian. Furthermore, the governments of the past century that murdered 10s of millions were atheist.
How did you COCK SUCKING FAGGOTS turn another thread into your own bullshit private religous war?
This thread is about the fed. Can you not read, or do you have too much donkey semen in your eyes to notice?
Fuck off and die.
Fuck 'em all - goD/heaven are a human fantasy.
Now, energy as 'goD' - I'm down with that.
But some fantasyland after we die? HA - what a sick joke and look at the results all around us.
WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
Isreal took all the bullshit they could take until enough was enough. The muslims use the media to bend the world against Isreal as they stand to fight against repressions from all sides.
Want to talk war crimes?
How about using schools, hospitals, UN CENTERS, libraries, etc. to shield missle operations for the terrorist. All the while using women and children as a pity device.
The people you see on the msm running into the hospitals who are supposed "victims" are actors in a movie set. just below the hospital is a hamas central command who LOVES to use the media as a control device for the idiotic masses.
http://www.worldtribune.com/2014/07/24/israel-says-hamas-took-hospital-u...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shifa_Hospital
SO dont mind me when I tell you to go fuck yourself.
Malaysian gov't had a tribunal and determined that Israel was guilty of war crimes against their nation, as some Malaysian citizens were innocently slaughtered. A few months thereafter, not one but two Malaysian airliners are either shot down or missing.
Connect the dots? I wonder what the odds are of 2 civilian airliners going down, from the same airline, in the same year, are?
Are you sure that only your version is true?
http://www.russelltribunalonpalestine.com/en/
Ignore it - it is a Ziopath troll, and it is unconcerned with the facts of Israel's war crimes.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/total-war-against-gaza-israeli-genocide-and...
http://electronicintifada.net/blogs/rania-khalek/israels-extermination-w...
Lily Allen said it best, "Always trust the injustice because it's not going away."
Don't you think it more likely that one plane disappeared and then was shot down later?
when push comes to shove I want Israel on my side vs the muslim non nations extremes or whatever they are called.
I would think people would understand each groups motivations-Israel to survive and do whatever it takes -with some restraint, and extreme muslims (who are never associated with a country, whether responsible country or not) to make populations extinct, period, no restraint.
Tell me, when does ISIS or AlQueda speak at the UN or NATO?
too complex a problem. There are a large percentage of good muslims, we see them everyday. Just like there is a large percentage of good every other religion and faith and nationality.
Most people just want to live and have fun. There are some groups that just don't give a hoot and while small in number create massive problems.Then that gets exacerbated with most of the others jumping to conclusions with ingrained ideas.
Time for all of us to think out of the box and how we solve problems. Maybe even in a win win manner, heaven forbid. Especially al leaders (even though some only have one resolution and thats to kill on sight.
I am done. Other things to do.
Well part of the problem, Hal, is Jews think there's a single Creator God, that He chose them, and that He, twice now, saisd it was cool for them to occupy land on which others had already been living for centuries, and that it was cool to kill all of them.
750,000+ Palestinians were displaced by Zionist guerilla/terror groups. their return was a condition of Israel's UN membership, and like countless UN resolutions, they have ignored it, and have continued brutalizing the indigenous population while building more Jewish-only settlements on stolen land.
It's one thing to plead with the court for mercy as an orphan - another thing when you were the one who killed your parents.
If Israel is in a hostile neighborhood it is because it murdered and expelled people who had lived there for centuries based on myth and absurd nationalism - claiming the right to live in Poland, or the US, or UK, but the exclusive right to live in Ersatz Israel, AND to kill, murder, and steal to get it, all while crying "anti-Semitism" at any objection to the daily murder of Arabs and Muslims from the sky by Israel, or its American golem.
A Chosen People.
A Promised Land.
A Product of Sick Minds.
Palestinian... a made up ethnicity if ever there was one. I'm not excusing anyone's behaviors but at least try, try to be honest.
I mind you.
http://defyingsilence.blogspot.com/2014/08/israeli-hasbara.html
Who Started ‘the Cycle of Violence’ in Palestine?
same as it ever was....
Israel’s Latest Assault on Gaza: The Lie of Who Started It
Netanyahu government knew teens were dead as it whipped up racist frenzy
Israel’s extermination of whole families in Gaza reflects genocidal impulseReally - fuck you.
www.ifamericansknew.org
Go fuck yourself.
http://www.gtr5.com
Yes, Death is peaceful also.
The REAL question to ask is: Why have various religious groups been able to get along for decades or centuries (minorities within majorities all over MENA, and even former Yugoslavia), and then all hell breaks loose in the 90s? WHY?
I think there's far more to it than mere "religion". I am certain the the toxic mix of the MIC + Banksters + Wahhabism are the violent and deadly potion that was added in all these places and regions.
p.s. Fuck Off, troll of 2 Week, 3 days! And stop redirecting the Topic to your Agenda-driven bullshit. ZHers, please DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS.
NBC advertisers don't want war and its attendant GDP growth?
That's a dubious hypothesis.
unleash the window-breaking alien invaders from Mars. I'm sure they are muslim, to boot. I'm sure they have WMDs, too
The decline in bond yields does not signal the very same decline in stock prices suggested as a result of ending QE
If it were true (stocks going down as QE ends) then bond prices would be falling
What's happening is that the world is concluding that global growth prospects are headed a long way south.
Be Prepared....
.... For a New Bigger and Better, Unholy Godless Sized Global Coordinated Round of QE Under a New Name.
We's in a Liquidity Trap which is a monetary phenomenon brought about by non-monetary factors. And ain't been any progress on the non-monetary side of things, kids... maybe even getting worse.
Hope's you alls already gotchur bonds
Does this count as a "taper tantrum"?
More like a "taper raper"
Whodathunk that crackheads would throw a fit when they're told the 6 years free crack party is over?
Every other time we thought it was going to be over, it wasn't.
CD, Looks like the Tylers terminated Gold Core while we were replying. Thanks Tylers.
Yessiree! I was gonna leave a pissy comment and the page said that the comment to which I was replying no longer exists. Thanks Tyler!
Gold Core's sister turned up pregnant. Incest was best, he put his sister to the test ... Good Riddance to the Piece of shit spammer ...
Me too .it was a scam anyway my sister got the last 3d gun printer and does better than that
I hate it when Tyler pulls both the punching bag and the punch bowl.
I had reported them spamming a week ago to Tylers
"Helicopter Janet" speech planned for this Friday.
Somebody must have had inside information.
GS: "we control the puppet running the printer. when we tell that fat cow to print again, she will. but for now, we are short and we're going to fuck over as many 401k's and pension as possible. fuck you, american lemmings."
Even muppets I talk to now who loved Obomber and the Bernank and his 'wealth effect machine' are now telling me they hate all the above and won't ever trust to 'invest' again.
Thus setting up the next GS prop trade - long, as soon as they get the tip from the Fed.
With everyone all-in fully leveraged far higher, the bankstering cabal has everyone right where they want them for the big takedown.
I don't think they can do another round of QE
FED credibility in the shitter....hard to get around that.
< < < Fed more credible than CDC
< < < CDC more credible than Fed
Neither has any credibility whatsoever. As does any spokesperson in the Executive or Legislative Branch of US gubbermint. Or the EU ,IMF, or any other bunch of initials.
<---Fed and CDC private, for profit, non-governmental, organizations with no credibility.
< < < Attached to host's neck
< < < Inside host's liver
Sure they can. It's easy when you have a magical digital printing press. The question is, do they need too, or do they have control of enough treasury stock to manage the flow? Current yields suggest that they do.
sure they can. You're about to see a massive decline in notional muppet wealth via massive deflation, anything from $20 trillion to $50 Trillion IMHO. The Fed's balance sheet is pittance compared to this. They may print tens of trillions into the banks in order to shore up these collapsing asset values. Then it's game over.
DOWN goes Frazier!
Not to worry, it's different this time.
it's ALWAYS different this time.
But especially this time.
well, until next time.
does that phony paper Silver chart look familiar to anyone else???
slam down on the london open...
slamd down on the NY open....
slam down on the london close...
u should now the rest...
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Are you selling contracts at London/US open and buying at your favorite dealer? Just curious as you seem to know Gold and Silver markets very well. I don't follow them like you do as I just buy Pm's no matter the price as a hedge against the dollar. Then lose them in boating accidents. I can't seem to drive a boat.
yeah, yeah...i get it..
just sayin...it appears $17.50 is there new maginot line...
dry powder and a match always at my side...
I had a reply but ZH went into maintenance mode on me. To summarize may see if that idea works at the US/London open. Will watch the line in the sand at $17.50. Thanks Kaiser as I do enjoy your posts about GC and SI.
sorry for not directly answering ur question...
i don not play in the fraudulent paper Silver/Gold rigged phony markets...
that would be in violation of ALL the reasons why i accumulate and save in REAL money...
only phyzz from local dealer or reputable big boys like Apmex..
cheers.
Goldman Sachs - free tub of Vaseline with every reco.
Should I refinance my house now?
Just go HELOC.....free money!
I don't know. It does look quite tempting. I have at 50k HELOC just languishing for an emergency and if Ebola really goes to the unthinkable level, I may take the money and run. Of course, I may have to take their offers to increase it before I do. Is this bad?
Miffed
Not as long as you buy PMs, guns, and ammo followed up by a terrible boating accident.
Insure said PMs, guns and ammo, have the accident, pay off loans directly. Sweet!
Ability to take out Loans are an asset that should be maximized.
I would.
Per a conversation I had with a Fed employee last week - "QE will be back next year"
QEn with n incrementing every year...
OH ok....but hey what happens if they throw a free money party again, but no one shows up? What if by next year things are so fucked up that QE is the last thing on anyone's concern list? It's not exactly 2008 anymore.
"QE will be back next year"
lovely ... QE/ZIRP root of the problem
Buy gold and silver with cash this year as the Squid crushes the price, cause when they do QE4ever next year any last credibility they had is going to evaporate and the rush to get rid of all those FRN's is going to be epic.
I don't think they can wait that long ... 'Thanksgiving' it's POMO
Blankfein, is that you?
After the controlled demolition?
"And Goldman, which has been pounding the table on shorting the 10 Year for about a year now"
to be fair - goldman and just about everyone else ... does the BofA guy still have a job??
buttplug
standing in front of a furnace full of molten glass
my hands blackened by the tools....
i really don't give a fck about what the financial brain dead
are doing any more....
long silver
To Infinity and Beyond!!!
High Ho Pomo! And away!
Well I thought that I've been reading that if QE intervention was ended, market and bank liquidity would freeze. Banks would no longer commit to interbank, intra-day loans. Somebody help me with this.
Time for another 'stimulus package' check for the plebes.
C'mon Janet, 5% prime rate tomorrow, you can do it.
With what I have seen from "indicators" from Chalky's regime, there is nothing these asshats won't do to fudge the numbers. Why anybody would believe anything coming out of the Federal Government, at any level, tells me you live in a delusional world. Fact is there is no set of economic stats these people won't fudge and lie about. Believe them at your peril.
www.traderzoo.mobi
Wake me up SPX 1500, dozing during "ponzi scheme". don't get ripped...
Huh crashing growth? Well thats got to be good for stocks!
The un-fed can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, however it wants. Who is going to stop them or audit them? They answer to no one. Well, except con-gress which means they answer to no one.
By design since 1913, the scourge upon us.
Gold miners are looking purdy today! Who is asking those brides for a dance and what do they know?
YA RATE HIKES MEAN CRASH!! ZIRP FOREVER AND QE FOREVER UNLESS THE FILTHY WHITEY DOG GOYIM WHOM THE TALMUDIC OVERLORDS SEE AS ASS MEAT DECIDE IT IS SUPREME MEGA RAPEY TIME!
THATS WHEN THE BAIL INS ARMORED VEHICLES 40 CAL SUBMACHINEGUNS, THE LIGHTS GO OUT FOR A WHILE AND WHO KNOWS MAYBE IF THE LUCIFERIAN PRINCES ARE GENEROUS ENOUGH THEY WILL UNLEASH SOME OF THE ABOMINATIONS OF NATURE THEY HAVE BEEN CULTIVATING UNDERGROUND! LOVECRAFT WOULD BE PROUD!
You yell too loud.
Yes, yell quietly in future.
Whenever things like this happen; the Treasury and Economic Advisory Board people start writing on the back of cocktail napkins. Art Laffer did it for Reagan and Paulson did it for Bush.
Look how those turned out!
Stop making cocktail napkins……. NOW!!!!!
I assume the two down votes are because both Reagan and Bush were/are Republicans. I never even considered that fact. I do not vote. Voting for the lessor of two evils is still voting for evil. No one worth voting for ever even gets to the debate stage.
BTW, Bush the elder bailed out Reagans banking reform, to the turn of about 1 TRiLLION DOLLARS and counting.
Do a little research on the Savings and Loan crisis and you will get it. David Stockman finally has!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis
None of the estimates for the S&L Crisis account for the tax waivers that were given to Bush cronies. Ronald Pearlman alone got a $900,000,000.00 tax waiver.
That same year, the First Gibraltar Bank was merged with four failing S&Ls and sold to Ronald Perelman (at the time, the fifth richest man in America). Perelman and his partners paid just $315 million for $7.1 billion in good assets; the government then gave them $5.1 billion to cover bad assets, plus $900 million in tax breaks. In the first year Perelman et al. owned it, Gibraltar made a profit of $129 million and got an additional $ 121 million in tax breaks.
The $157-billion bailout was financed by floating 30-year bonds, the interest on which will make the ultimate cost much higher. The actual total will depend on what interest rates end up being between 1990 and 2020, but estimates range from $500 billion to $1.4 trillion (in other words, 1,400 billion dollars).
Are you beginning to get the picture?
Reagan was a great President! In almost every way. He won the cold war, restord economic growth... when he inherited a far worse situation than Obama by bringing in a bit of laissez faire. His war on drugs was a flop, but history has shown us the futility of a war on anything... but another country.
While Bush the 1st was a new class progressive who undid all the good of the Reagan years... "Read my lips..." Liar!
I was a stupid kid then and voted for Carter! Once I saw the results of conservatism I converted. Results speak for themselves.
OT, but a humorous bulletin from Marketwatch: Hazmat-suit stocks in decline on slowdown in new Ebola cases
I'm waiting for the Jim Cramer episode : Ebola-How To Trade It
Coming soon – no more QE!
As our leaders are eminently rational, there’s NO CHANCE they’ll consider such a silly program again. Imagine – trying to ignite growth by bribing primary dealers with inflated bond prices to goose equity markets between 10:15 and 11:00 four days a week -- why, whoever thought of THAT lame-brained scheme must be feeling PRETTY stupid right about now.
But, we’ve no time for negative thoughts: short-sellers can come out of hiding, those hoarding canned goods in their basements can have a feast (perhaps making a large batch of hummus, or white bean soup with chard and turkey sausage, finished with lemon and a drizzle of olive oil), meteorologists will certainly update their extended forecasts, for this is clearly a new dawn in America!
And . . . no need for the \sarc tag ever again, let’s be frightfully serious from now on.
The Fed will be back with a bigger QE when it sees the market faultering. Probably a 90% chance.
Driving up silver and gold...
QE windfall for banks might be ending because Fed is worred about dollar reserve status after hearing Putin signed EEU agreement/treaty escalating move away from USD by eurasian nations ...which I don't recall EbolaHedge even reporting.
But we know QE will continue in the shadows, US govt still borrows $100 billion / mo. Or is it $150 billion / mo?
"we'll just kill the dollar"
I think that they think Japan has gotten away with it all this time, and they will too. China likes it, everyone is easing their way on in there. Ease, ease, eaaase. They like it tight. I think it must be addictive to get away with it: Master's of the Universe.
I am being perverse on purpose. So are they.
POMO got us here. We all know this. Share buybacks was just the window dressing to justify upside in the MSM and to convince the masses that the recovery was real.
And here we are - there was NEVER any recovery. Barry and Yellen/Bernanke partnered to keep Barry elected. When markets are up, social mood is up and incumbents get re-elected.
Too little too late for November mid-terms - here comes your shellacking - again - Barry.
Qe suspended, dogs and cats start living together, President Emperor Hillary assures the plebes we really need the TPP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership
QE resumes, then stops again, and banks and the .01% buy up more land and companies and we go into Pakistan if we haven't yet finished with Iran {regime change alone won't do - the point is to eliminate Israel's economic rivals, you see}.
or - something eerily similar.
The TPP is a major component of the NWO globalist agenda. When you add it all up the talk about deliberately crashing the dollar doesn't sound so crazy. New World Currency, open borders, no trade barriers, ethnic and national cohesion shattered by mass immigration, mass media all singing from the same song sheet......
NWO means, global empire.
Looking at Exhibit 2, I have to ask: Why isn't Russia keeping up with the G7 (formerly G8)? If they did, then maybe their currency would not suffer so much, compared to King Dollar.
/sarc
as Marc Faber aptly put it, QE to Infinity
"Klink! Your an idiot!" Oh sorry... "Yellen..."
I guess the Fed believed zerohedge predictions of hyperinflation just around the corner in the U.S. the last two years.
Oh, don't worry--they're already talking about the new QE...just this afternoon, in fact!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-williams-says-qe-could-be-needed-i...
Central Planning Fail. Another Great 5 Year Plan, the last 90% very carefully and completely wrong, flooding with gas when missing the spark.
I would say, Obama care is sugar in the gas...
Addiction ultimately turns you into a whiny little cunt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLbNrxFVc4g
This is not a crash (yet) .
Merely systems seeking fairer values .
Rich Man , Poor Man
https://www.academia.edu/8770864/Swiss_and_Afghan
Or , calculate it for yourself :
See https://www.academia.edu/8770429/Optimal_Markups_for_Sustainable_Growth
"Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in."....Janet Corleone
The correct interpretation of the FED position: "The transfer of wealth from the middle class, due to inflation, is slowing. We will create more wealth for ourselves, out of thin air, so we can finish off this abhorent social group- in a timely fashion."
QE to infinity. Just cut out the talk of anything else. CTRL -P till it no longer works. Central Banks have no other tricks . Good luck muppets.
Much too controlled sell-algorithm in play. Just wait for 'too good' inflation numbers, that will be a sell!