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Is This The Fed's "Hidden" Buy Signal?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While today's trading volume was better than in recent weeks (as it has been for the last 4 days of collapse), quote activity spiked to the 2nd highest ever on record. As Nanex's Eric Hunsader notes, quote cancellations were higher than ever and are accelerating even as the overall market volume slides lower and lower. What is intriguing is that the last 3 times quote activity spiked this much corresponded with a 'sudden' v-shaped recovery from a significant market weakness - which extended notably for six months or more... is this time different?

 

Nanex's Eric Hunsader shows the hidden reality behind trading volume in these "markets"... to be clear - actual traded volume continues to tumble structurally but the number of actual quotes (subsequently cancelled) continues to rise as machines dominate more and more of the 'flow'... However, today's spike (just like the other 3) stood out

h/t @nanexllc

 

And each of those spikes corresponds to market v-shaped bottoms...

 

Is this the Fed's hidden signal "all-clear"? Along with Fed's Williams idiotic statements about QE4, who knows?

 

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Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:24 | 5330853 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sure, whatever, go full zimbabwe, I triple dog dare you...

You can smell the fucking desparation now folks...

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:36 | 5330860 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Is This The Fed's "Hidden" Buy Signal?

 

Oh, my darling,
Knock three times
On the ceiling if you want me
Twice on the pipe
If the answer is no

Oh, my sweetness
Bid Bid Bid
Means you'll meet me in the hallway

Oh, twice on the pipe
Means you ain't gonna show

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:37 | 5330909 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yellen just called K-Hen on the red phone & ordered implementation of FRBNY Operation "Panty Dropper."

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:39 | 5330916 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I need a bigger spoon, cause tricks are for kids.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:46 | 5330933 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Operation "Panty Dropper" sat, in the form of an algorithm on a flash drive, on Edward Quince's desk since 2008, but even though he sometimes physically fondled the flash drive containing the code (sometimes inserting it into the darker orifices on his short, pasty body) in some sort of sado- masochistic sexual ritual, even Quince dared not unleash it.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:47 | 5330967 Manthong
Manthong's picture

A casual look at those two charts might lead one to believe that that V might need to be a bit deeper and that spike might need to be a little higher.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:26 | 5330863 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

Fedheads look like buffoons now.

 

Elsewhere: is Hillary going after the pothead vote?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:38 | 5330912 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

The Fed's hidden buy signal has been apparent from the very beginning: buy gold & silver and don't get fooled by deceptive propaganda.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 04:21 | 5332551 CASTBOUND
CASTBOUND's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do...

                w­w­w.j­o­b-r­e­p­o­r­t­s.c­o­m

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:26 | 5330855 Oxygen
Oxygen's picture

What about satan signal of last week?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:46 | 5330964 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Satan says: Play Ball!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:27 | 5330857 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

Swallow that hook!   If it is not in your pocket,  it will soon belong to someone else.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:31 | 5330882 starman
starman's picture

Buy signal for who? Is the question.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:32 | 5330886 jubber
jubber's picture

well all US futures are already up significantly up AH even after digesting Intel's buybacks, + I cannot remember the last time US futures ever sold off in the 8 -9 houres that follow the close before the European open... guess some Dow 17000 calls may be prescient?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:44 | 5330948 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

markets will go up ... unless they go down

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:32 | 5330891 Duffy
Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:34 | 5330902 mendigo
mendigo's picture

My guess would be that quoting activity increases as volatility.

But with low volume the algos are eating dirt.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:40 | 5330918 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

june 2010 "signal" ... double dip close at hand, but Congress passed 3 fiscal stimulus bills totaling close $100 billion, foreclosure moratorium (keeping deadbeats in homes fueling squatter stimulus), august 2010 bernanke hinted at jackson hole QE2

 

august 2011"signal" ... debt ceiling brinksmanship settled week earlier

 

february 2014 "signal" ... no clue

 

 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:39 | 5330920 wmbz
wmbz's picture

The un-fed is just having a little fun, jerking some chains. They own this bitch and opperate without restraint.

Same thing goes for the sandniggers, just showing who's boss.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:43 | 5330936 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

If computational power doubles every 18 months (Moore's Law), then before long the bots should be able to cancel a quote before they've even requested it, thus front-running themselves. "Faster!" cried the Red Queen, "We're only standing still."

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:43 | 5330939 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

Rocketing quote activity is not a buy signal, it's just what machines do when there is a lot of volatility and their models are starting to break down. The previous buys all happened when QE was still rolling full tilt boogie, and that just isn't the case anymore.

The DOW just closed red on a POMO Tuesday. The machine heuristics haven't figured out that the pattern they've learned to follow for the past five years won't be working anymore, but they'll soon start asking each other in binary code, "Hey, who moved my cheese?"

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:53 | 5330991 Duffy
Duffy's picture

aye - but in a financial mobius strip of sorts - a lot of the volatility is due to "the machines."

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:04 | 5331026 Dazman
Dazman's picture

I love Eric's work, but I think there's a big mixup of causation and correlation here. At period of high volatility you will have more of everything, including people placing and thereafter canceling orders after observing price action in the interim.

Same about the liquidity issues... The liquidity problems Eric has highlighted recently are because of the volatility... Trades take place at those price levels and therefore the contracts are gone from the liquidity bucket and it takes time to replenish. Slower price action allows more liquidity to build.

Market is still rigged though.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:35 | 5331099 StupidEarthlings
StupidEarthlings's picture

Sure the markets are faked fucked and unbelievable. . But do you really think theyre gonna use it to send friggin traceable smoke signals?..when they could pick up the fone..or choose a time..or number? 

No.

Im sure we gotta find SOME reason to change 'our' position from yesterday..remember? ..everyone hiding under the table calling the end?...again.

Yes..thats right I did call green by 10 am NY.

AGAIN... They have control of digits on a screen. It will not crash this time..it will be a slow steady unwinding..more of a stairway effect than a crash. They remember how people panicked last time. Slow..and...steady. that way people arent disturbed from FB...or idol....or ZH for that matter.

 

When change is slow..deliberate and controlled..sheep dont give a fuck.

 

And your welcome.

 

If you need me ill be around..prolly check back later.

;)

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:44 | 5331137 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

The "hidden" signal is probably a phone call to the proprietary trading desks of the primary stealers with a reminder to not get too greedy.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:36 | 5331120 q99x2
q99x2's picture

BTFD. FEDs got more fiat than you can shake a stick at.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:39 | 5331127 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Just common programming errors not caught in testing:  they forgot to cancel the buys.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:52 | 5331172 spiral galaxy
spiral galaxy's picture

I follow the ZH triple inverse power of 3 minus 1, integrated between now and yesterday......which is, do the opposite of whatever is written here and you're sure to make $$$$ c:-)

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 19:06 | 5331216 yield_curver
yield_curver's picture

Volume's equal to the quantity of sex my wife's been giving me: zero.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 06:38 | 5332694 Dazman
Dazman's picture

So, hedge!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 19:33 | 5331217 yield_curver
yield_curver's picture

double posts

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 19:45 | 5331361 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

just buy the dip, these old gevelte-fishes in charge of the Fed won't throw in the towel until after Hillary Ramrod gets elected, IMO... they're like the creatures from Land of the Lost, slestaks? time is irrelevant to their master plan

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 22:00 | 5331900 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Its only normal for cancellations to rise with greater volatility. I am just a little 1-2 lot day trader and my quote cancellations increased by 5x during this higher volatility times. Just saying.......
I am sure the more volume the more cancellations by firm / individuals.......

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 22:04 | 5331912 besnook
besnook's picture

they have trapped themselves into a permanently levitated equity market because any big correction will unleash a liquidity trap that will take the world down. these dumbasses know that at the very least. BTFD!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 22:54 | 5332097 fibonacci's claus
fibonacci's claus's picture

i betcha yellen wears those sexy bloomer, full butt, grannies with the extra cotton crotch.  i could be wrong tho

 

maybe she wears "bond" thongs?  the ones designed to "absorb" loses???

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 05:30 | 5332594 Salamanda
Salamanda's picture

Oh Nooooooooooooo!!! Now that image is in my head Fibo-claus... thanks for that!

What I'd do right now for a 'Command-Z' button in my brain.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 02:50 | 5332476 SharkBit
SharkBit's picture

Awesome analysis.  The game is rigged.  HFT is the most corrupt invention in town.  Shame on USA for unleashing on the world.  All those Wall Street brains would be better used to do more for the world as opposed to lining the pockets of a few.  Shame, shame, shame.

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