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The QE4 Countdown Has Begun

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Actually, it may well be QE5, or QE6 depending on how one counts Operation Twist and the extension of QE3, but what matters is that the countdown to whatever it is, has begun courtesy of none other than one of the Fed's biggest doves, the head of the Fed which spawned Janet Yellen, San Francisco Fed's John Williams

  • FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS QE MAY BE NEEDED IF ECONOMY FALTERS

This is what a happy, money-printing John Williams looks like:

More from Reuters:

The head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday said he would be open to another of round asset purchases if inflation trends were to fall significantly short of the U.S. central bank's target.

 

Although he said it would take a big shift in the U.S. economic outlook for the Fed to restart its bond buying, John Williams said the possibility of a new downturn in Europe and other global economic woes pose a risk to the United States. "If we really get a sustained, disinflationary forecast ... then I think moving back to additional asset purchases in a situation like that should be something we should seriously consider," Williams said in an interview with Reuters.

Rinse, repeat, for round number 4 (or 5, or 6), in the process completely destroying what little is left of the middle class and making the uber super rich uberer, superer richer. Because when all is said and done, the Fed will either get runaway inflation through money printing or hyperinflation through collapse of the US reserve currency. There is now no middle ground, further compounded because the Fed has sole control of the CTRL and P buttons.

Needless to say, Williams is right and more QE is just a matter of time before the data-dependent (dependent on the data describing the drop in the S&P that is) Fed realizes that this aggression against rigged markets can not stand. What's worse, this lunacy will continue until the US people finally go all "French revolution" on the Marriner Eccles building and give the locals the Marie Antoinette "haircut."

 

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Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:23 | 5329287 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Shock, shock.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:25 | 5329295 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

DUH!

QE-forever

the new normal..

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:36 | 5329355 max2205
max2205's picture

His middle name is Robin

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:44 | 5329408 knukles
knukles's picture

That "A prolonged (or whatever he said) slowdown in Europe or some other shit that could fuck things up even worse than they are now" seems to have already happened.
Just wait until the Ebola spreads a tidge more.

I hate to say it, but I todja so (not directed at my ZHedgie pals, but the "other" readers ... you know, at the Fed, other money managers, etc) this is a shit show on steroidal lipstick.

Excuses excuses excuses.
QE to the Moon, Alice!

And just y'all wait.  Once the Ebola starts to spread, then it'll be blamed upon it mutated to an airborne strain (is already airborne, duh) and now we need to take additional steps.  Like MOAR funding for the incompetents Who Have As Of Yet Done Nothing With What Funding They's Already Gots,

AAAAARRRRRAAAAGGGGHHH!

2.99% 30 years.....
Hope and Ch
ange

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:46 | 5329421 linniepar
linniepar's picture

Man, these guys are genius. My 3 year old c9uld also print money with his crayolas.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:00 | 5329465 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Oil dropping, either by US or Saudi design, is not helping the much needed bankster enslavement policy of inflation.  These f**kers will be forced to print to keep the US pig afloat.  Confidence will be lost - which may be part of the Saudi's plan in all of this, if in fact they are the ones pushing oil prices down.

So many possible angles.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:02 | 5329517 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Don't you think the global depression yields less deman for oil and the price declines accordingly?  Wait, I was thinking this was a real, unmanipulated market.  Scratch everything I just said.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:12 | 5329580 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

QE4 may cause panic for what it portends as opposed to delighting the market.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:19 | 5329631 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

" it would take a big shift in the U.S. economic outlook"

All depends on your definition of BIG.

To some, size doesn't matter!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:28 | 5329682 Jacksons Ghost
Jacksons Ghost's picture

Too Boo Koo!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:52 | 5329830 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

If you didn't see this coming from a mile away then you deserve to get hit by the train......... As it's wrecking, of course....

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:02 | 5329893 CClarity
CClarity's picture

They can print all they want all the way to the collapse of the banking system.  Personally, I can't wait!  They're motivating smart people to create new mechanisms for facilitiating exchange of goods and services outside the traditional banking system, of lending and deposits, and the crazy over the top transition to derivatives upon derivatives upon securitized derivatives cum ETF etc... so nothing is real.  

The powers to come create bitcoin, transactions by phone, methods of barter that most of us haven't imagined yet.  And those credit card a-holes and bankers will not be in charge anymore.  

All the printing will be 3D and not of  USTs and currency.  Bring it!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:06 | 5329915 Rememberweimar
Rememberweimar's picture

Exchanging paper for real assets such as FOOD which deprives other of food and causes starvation, same as they did in Weimar Germany. Then they wonder why they were put in gas chambers...

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:10 | 5329932 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Dont believe the genocide lies.

Anne Frank was a manufactured story, just look at the soap opera melodrama coming out of Hollywood.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:10 | 5329954 Rememberweimar
Rememberweimar's picture

Bingo!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:22 | 5329977 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

ty

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:12 | 5329978 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Your move Abe. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 16:18 | 5330493 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

Are the Belgium purchases sticking out like too much of a sore thumb to broaden that path, either size wize or participation wise?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:29 | 5329916 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

I thought his middle name was Rubin lol.  Oh sorry his appointed and self-chosen boss is Yellen, that explains it. Got AIPAC fronting your nomination, then you are a shoe in for the job.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:03 | 5329896 Rememberweimar
Rememberweimar's picture

Exchanging paper for real assets such as FOOD, same as they did in Weimar, Germany. Then they wonder why they were put in gas chambers...

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:29 | 5329687 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Can't believe a dude who looks a lot like Dan Aykroyd

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:45 | 5329790 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

You would have to "trade places" with him to know how tough the rich white guy has got it!

Regards,

Cooter

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 16:09 | 5330449 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

dunno, looks like a garden variety motherfucker to me...

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:23 | 5329656 saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

Actually nobody knows the future.

I believe in case of inflation getting painful, the FED is going to hike rates, which is going to cause more pain although real interest rates stay negative. Collapse? I don't think so. We survived the 70ies, we will survive the 20ies. Haircuts? Yes, certainlay. Bondmarket crash? Yes, that is going to be epic. When? I don't know. PMs will stay fine. Stocks? Depends, I believe (again) that Asia is going to outperform us dramatically. War? Yes, already going on for years.

"We'll see" said the zen master.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:41 | 5329752 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Actually, they do.

The sun will rise in the East tomorrow morning

It will be colder in the Northern Hemisphere in a few months

And a bear will shit in the woods

So there!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:23 | 5331072 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

We got out of the 70"s with the petro dollar,how do we get out of this one.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 23:48 | 5332252 saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

The Yuan, after a currency reform. The USD is going to pass the baton sometime around the end of the 20ies.

Goldbacked of course.

My guess.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:01 | 5329518 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Don't forget the G20 ultimatum expires in December.

Rock and a hard place, all they can do is flap their gums.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:29 | 5330127 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Or possibly competing interests.  I'm sure not everyone in a position of power is on the same side.  Most are probably one "my" side but we'll work together as long as both our needs are met.  When our needs diverge, I'm gonna screw you to a wall and feed you to ISIS.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 16:08 | 5330448 Bituminoid
Bituminoid's picture

I carry gum in my pocket so MY money always smells freshly minted...

 

It's the only way man, dust off and nuke them from orbit

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:54 | 5329478 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The strain in spain came mainly from the plane.

Airborne virus = American, Southwest, United, JetBlue.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:26 | 5329674 knukles
knukles's picture

Very nice!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:00 | 5329883 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Many on ZH have said, over and over, that rates will NEVER be raised and QE will, in some shape or form, continue indefinitely. Several of us have probably told the same thing to anybody outside of the ZH community who would listen, or engage in such discussion.

My money is on these people being correct.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:19 | 5330825 oak
Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:28 | 5330123 JRobby
JRobby's picture

The math all says "deflate"

And it ain't no time to hate.

No, no it's time to deflate.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:32 | 5330156 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

First we inflate.

Then we inflate some more.

When we stop we watch it deflate.

Finally we hyperinflate it all way.

Long ropes and light posts.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:51 | 5329463 NeoRandian
NeoRandian's picture

OR OR OR, and I know this sounds COMPLETELY CRAZY, you could just give free money to the poor 99%. Yes, I know we'll all spend it on new iphones and weed, but those industries certainly need as much love as the rolexes, teslas, derivatives, cocaines, and shitworld corruption industries, which are where all the QE monies go.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:17 | 5329618 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

but that's socialism and we can't have that in America the Exceptional!

/SARC

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:20 | 5329624 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Where have you been?

What do you think TANF, Food Stamps, Section-8, WIC, MediCal/MediCaid are?

Surprise! Welfare isn't about helping poor people; it's an economic simulus program. After all; give money to a responsible middle-class person and they might actually save it. But give money to someone on welfare and they have to spend it (or they become inelligle for next month's aid).

With 47,000,000 Americans on Food Stamps, we have an entire FSA of spending robots...

"It's Free! Swipe Yo' EBT!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLTTX35LNJo

It's all a Keynesian wetdream...

 

 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:22 | 5329646 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Hell, for that matter,

Just open up the FED window at every Mickey D's.

May I please have a 99 cent burger and $2 billion cash at .5%?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:40 | 5331113 layman_please
layman_please's picture

EBT=QE

considering most of the US social security liabilities are not covered by the tax revenue, EBT is one of the many forms of the QE indeed.

good observation!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:32 | 5329707 SystemicSarcasm
SystemicSarcasm's picture

it's the core mentality problem within the majority... do less and get more!
it plagues the southern soverign states in Europe; ALL HAIL THE FRENCH SOCIALIT SYSTEM! where the super rich rather become Russian nationals than pay 75% MEGA TAX... no shit right?

you can't give the poor more for doing less... hell the middle class will slowly slip lower, have 6 kids, reap in unemployment at 80% sallary for 2 years and apply for state aid! live richer, while doing less...

remind anyone of the Commis?

well you know.. at least the intention was good! ;) 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:33 | 5329714 SystemicSarcasm
SystemicSarcasm's picture

it's the core mentality problem within the majority... do less and get more!
it plagues the southern soverign states in Europe; ALL HAIL THE FRENCH SOCIALIT SYSTEM! where the super rich rather become Russian nationals than pay 75% MEGA TAX... no shit right?

you can't give the poor more for doing less... hell the middle class will slowly slip lower, have 6 kids, reap in unemployment at 80% sallary for 2 years and apply for state aid! live richer, while doing less...

remind anyone of the Commis?

well you know.. at least the intention was good! ;) 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:34 | 5329715 SystemicSarcasm
SystemicSarcasm's picture

it's the core mentality problem within the majority... do less and get more!
it plagues the southern soverign states in Europe; ALL HAIL THE FRENCH SOCIALIT SYSTEM! where the super rich rather become Russian nationals than pay 75% MEGA TAX... no shit right?

you can't give the poor more for doing less... hell the middle class will slowly slip lower, have 6 kids, reap in unemployment at 80% sallary for 2 years and apply for state aid! live richer, while doing less...

remind anyone of the Commis?

well you know.. at least the intention was good! ;) 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:51 | 5329464 NeoRandian
NeoRandian's picture

OR OR OR, and I know this sounds COMPLETELY CRAZY, you could just give free money to the poor 99%. Yes, I know we'll all spend it on new iphones and weed, but those industries certainly need as much love as the rolexes, teslas, derivatives, cocaines, and shitworld corruption industries, which are where all the QE monies go.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:14 | 5329593 gjp
gjp's picture

Such a great comment I up-arrowed it twice

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:28 | 5329317 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Helicopter Janet" speech coming up on Friday.  

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:37 | 5329366 max2205
max2205's picture

If they do look for a one day % gain of historic proportions....top

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:10 | 5329559 robertsgt40
robertsgt40's picture

I'm trying to think what my high school English teacher would've said if I had used "disinflation" in a sentence.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 16:09 | 5330419 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

Oh, I see.  send the flunky out to hint at the inevitable QE ∞.  better hurry.  this market can crash any minute now.

 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:24 | 5329289 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

This is "PRECISELY" what I have been telling everyone. It's just a matter of time before Janet shows us her tits!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:25 | 5329303 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Leaches Gone Wild!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:28 | 5329307 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

LISTEN...

i told you to mix it up a bit..

like a real troll...with a real bridge..

P.S. HOWS YOUR SISTER DOING?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:44 | 5330262 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Looking to bug out XiC; still awaiting your address and current passcode.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:24 | 5329296 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Well, green close now.

More jaw-boning from the PhD debt alchemists.

If he were a Doctor he'd be prescribing Mercury and blood letting for syphilis.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:28 | 5329324 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

No doctor there at all.  He is just like the US Government and gave syphilis to an unexepctant population and denied treatment just to see how it would progress. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:04 | 5329527 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

If he were a doctor, he'd be prescribing larger and larger doses of heroin for everything.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:21 | 5329641 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

If he were a doctor, he'd be prescribing big pharma drugs. The patient is bed ridden for the next 30 years but at least they have a pulse.

This QE-infinity is the Fed kicking the can down the road... forever. This could last decades, but one should hedge and prep in case it doesn't.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:26 | 5329297 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Not that the Fed has much credibility left, which they don't, but stopping QE and then re-starting it will destroy any little confidence left in the US and its currency.  People will know when the medicine becomes the poison. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:30 | 5329330 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

That little phrase "data-dependent" for Fed policy about to come in handy.  An increase in QE3 can always be justified by some data now..   The Fed does not necessarily have to let it peter out.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:53 | 5329474 NeoRandian
NeoRandian's picture

'data-dependent' makes me vomit a little in my asshole, just like 'evidence-based'

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:53 | 5329475 NeoRandian
NeoRandian's picture

'data-dependent' makes me vomit a little in my asshole, just like 'evidence-based'

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:34 | 5329342 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I do not dispute the credibilty issue. But, nobody cares.  If you want this cake to rise we need yeast! More yeast! Gimme a cake with 99 perecent yeast and a grain of sugar! 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:40 | 5329382 john_connor
john_connor's picture

My point is that, at some point the Fed increasing its balance sheet will be viewed as "market negative" due to the risk.  The bigger the balance sheet, the harder it is for them to exit and influence interest rates in a controlled manner.  They will have no way out.  Its called a liquidity trap but on an epic scale never seen before.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:47 | 5329439 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Could be. However, nothing says they have to exit. Just keep driving the station wagon around the traffic circle until it runs out of gas. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:00 | 5329515 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Sure, however much more likely they are "forced" to exit.  Once mark to market losses on their balance sheet increase, if they don't sell the currency will collapse or at the very least it will be VERY uncomfortable for most Americans.

So who knows.   

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:12 | 5329567 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

So who knows.

Agreed.  

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:25 | 5329298 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

All the while, the IMF "Head"quarters in DC funnels in the SDRs through the backdoor.  What a travesity of a mockery of a sham this whole "money" ssystem is. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:26 | 5329301 pods
pods's picture

So this current round of QE isn't even done and they are telling us more is coming?

My ass needs time to heal dammit.

pods

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:27 | 5329314 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

They are indeed telling us that MOAR QE cometh, but not after a swift destruction of any pensioners wading into the cess pool of equities and bonds and other paper promises. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:26 | 5329305 ekm1
ekm1's picture

There will not be QE4, ..................................................................................unless USA citizenry is prepared to spend 80% of disposable income for food.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:30 | 5329328 User_404
User_404's picture

We all need to lose weight anyways.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:44 | 5329416 ekm1
ekm1's picture

:-)

I like that:

 

QE = Weight Loss

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:21 | 5329640 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

How do bankers and financial pricks taste anyway?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:57 | 5329862 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

The truth is that our "leaders"... and I use the term loosely... are no smarter than the average 99%er out here.  The only protection they have which provides them with any degree of credibility is the complicincy of the mainstream press whom they own and who promote their BS.  On top of that, the masses are as addicted to "bread and circuses" as the rich are QE - a marriage made in heaven for the uber-rich and a hellish nightmare for the masses once the bread and circuses cease to exist.  Seriously I don't blame the uber-rich, they are just getting away with what the 99% bread and circuses crowd allow them to.  Sports, reality TV, soaps... the 99% eat that crap up and more... hedonism rules the day right down to the moment the ship has sunk to the point that the Titanic's bow is overrun with ice-cold water and it's "passengers" sink to an icy grave. And after it's sunk the remaining 99% refocus their attention on who is to blame never thinking to themselves they should be looking in the mirror for the answer to that question.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:31 | 5329329 User_404
User_404's picture

oh SNAP. (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:34 | 5329348 venturen
venturen's picture

I got rich quick with the IPO!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:44 | 5329413 ekm1
ekm1's picture

That would be 3rd world status

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:52 | 5329470 walküre
walküre's picture

it will be QE"4"EVA in a globally coordinated effort or collapse of all asset prices -  pick your poison

The Chinese would be wiped out immediately with their massive houses of shadow banking and nothing backing it. Not to mention their economy would crater.

IMF has decided in Sydney that the growth target is 2% p.a. for the foreseeable future. That growth target can only be reached with more liquidity and they know this.

The time for reasonable course of action has passed decades ago but the door on USD defaults was shut indefinitely when FED started OMT in ernest.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:56 | 5329487 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Nobody cares about IMF. IMF is just a bunch of academics and is 100% US controlled.

 

World is avoiding using USD faster and faster. More USD reserves provided, will make the world literally dump it and go local trade.

Globalization would be dead

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:27 | 5329311 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Peter Schiff has been calling out that 'QE will never go away' for several years. With these kind of Fed doves, he is right.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:41 | 5329394 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I was thinking the same thing. Problem is the horse we picked has been drugged. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:55 | 5329432 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It cannot end. We are in a liquidity trap. There is no way out. We have crossed the Rubicon...We have crossed the Event Horizon.

 

So now they consider choosing the Hyperinflation Depression collapse?

 

Either way...sooner or later...this will go bust.. The currency bubble will burst.

 

It will end up in a deflationary collapse...which is that which precedes a hyperinflationary blow off...and...which is that which follows a hyperinflationary blow off.

 

Either way we are headed for pain and destitution. The only difference is that in a Hyperinflation the common currency is destroyed.

 

Unfortunately the currency is all that we hold in common. It is the lifeblood of our society. When it is destroyed then it follows that societal breakdown is the result.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:00 | 5329511 The Phallic Crusader
The Phallic Crusader's picture

liquidity trap?

 

No such thing.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:27 | 5330111 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Yeah. You are right. Tell that to the trader, the stupid chump, who decided to dump $750 Million on the S&P near yesterday's close.

 

Nahhh...No problem with liquidity. None whatsoever. The market sponged all of that excess up with absolutely no problem...In fact the prices for stawks increased.

 

What? They decreased during the sell off?

 

/sarc

 

Do you know the funny thing about debt and debt as a currency? There is interest on that debt.

 

Now the debt must be paid...with interest...or the debtor is insolvent and DEFAULTS. 

 

(Yes the Debt is also paid, along with the interest, when the Bonds become due. This year the US Government paid out roughly $15 Trillion for the bonds which became due. But they had to issue more than $15 Trillion in new bonds, with new expiry dates, in order to do it. They rolled over the debt.)

 

Now the Federal Reserve Bank issues that currency as a result of US Government indebtedness when they purchase the bonds. The US Government creates Bonds and sells them...that creates REVENUE.

 

However, in recent times, the demand for Bonds used to be from Private investors and Foreign Central Banks. But since that demand has greatly diminished...due to low interest rate returns on US Government Bonds...the Federal Reserve has been buying those Bonds. That is the essence of Quantitative Easing.  

 

But while the Federal Reserve Bank creates the Principle, the amount of currency that the Bond is valued at, the Federal Reserve does not create the currency to pay that interest due on those Bonds.

 

Even with today's relatively low interest rates the US Government has to comeup with roughly $400 Billion per year...IN INTEREST Payments. That is roughly 40% of the Government ANNUAL DEFICIT. Now that ANNUAL DEFICIT is covered by BORROWING MORE CURRENCY..issuing more Bonds.

 

And the budget is never balanced because it cannot be balanced. The US Government must borrow more than what they had borrowed before in order to keep spending at the same rate..

 

If the US Government cannot make the interest payments, if they cannot service their debt, then the Government DEFAULTS.

 

That is the essence of the Liquidity Trap.

 

So please tell me that this whole paradigm is just a nightmare from which I can wake up. Tell me that the CURRENT REALITY is that we have a wonderful system that does not require the issuance of debt as a currency.

 

And if you tell me that then it will be the farthest removed from the truth of the tragic and sad reality of a Financial System that is on the precipice of collapse.

 

(See what your trolling does? It just serves to give me the opportunity to expose the FRAUD and DECEIT that is so endemic within your Government. Please continue. Other than that, as far as I care, you can autofellate as you are a contortionist and it is well within your abilities.)

 

 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 18:57 | 5331183 Muppet
Muppet's picture

A great post.   Small err is "That is the essence of a liquidity trap".   Yes, we have a liquidity trap, but its definition concerns the point in time afterwhich rates cuts fail as a stimulant.  It is a point of ineffectiveness.  A point Japan got stuck in years ago (and remains stuck in) and that the US is just just realizing.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:27 | 5329312 replaceme
replaceme's picture

He looks like he should be selling freeking ShamWows....  Go hit a hooker, you fuck.

I'm sorry, I meant to say go get the shit beat of yourself BY a hooker.  My apologies to any hookers reading this.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:27 | 5329313 azura888
azura888's picture

1.) This Fed full of Democrats will do anything to hoist Hillary on us in 2016

 

2.) This is insane

 

3.) Better close my USDJPY longs

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:30 | 5329325 blabam
blabam's picture

Democrats durp republicans durp. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:36 | 5329351 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

SHITLARY 2016!!!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:29 | 5329326 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Bitcoin - 21M pieces and that's it

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:35 | 5329350 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Until apple pay uses it..Joe six pack doesn't give a shit

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:18 | 5329626 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Apple cant print them , and of course Apple will use them eventually

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:29 | 5329679 agstacks
agstacks's picture

aren't they divisible by 8 decimals out?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:32 | 5329712 Shirley Swanepoel
Shirley Swanepoel's picture

'John Williams said the possibility of a new downturn in Europe and other global economic woes pose a risk to the United States.' There was an upturn? Dang, I must have missed it.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:33 | 5329341 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

have some balls janet, take the rates to 5%... 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:39 | 5329344 TomGa
TomGa's picture

When CNBS is highlighting a cupcake company as an example of American entreprenuerial ingenuity, you know the economy is unsustainable absent continuous Fed intervention.

 

Cupcakes et Circenses!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:24 | 5329655 Taffy Lewis
Taffy Lewis's picture

It makes me laugh a lot because it reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where Elaine's boss steals her idea to open a cupcake shop - with the tops only as the gimmick. 25  years ahead of its time just like science fiction.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:35 | 5329345 venturen
venturen's picture

INMATES RUNNING THE ASYLUM! 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:35 | 5329346 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

and $17 Silver...?
how hilarious is that shit...

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:45 | 5329414 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I had a Franks and Beans moment when I was a kid. I pulled up my fly really fast one day after taking a wizz. Little Philo got his head stuck. It hurt so bad I laughed.....kinda like now with Silver. 

However, one day Little Philo saw the light and enjoyed the majesty of creation.  That is my hope as it pertains to Silver. 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:11 | 5329970 css1971
css1971's picture

Well. If you rebalance your portfolio occasionally it'll tell you to do what?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:34 | 5329347 MaxMax
MaxMax's picture

They can't stop printing.  They know it, and we know it, but they can't say it.  If they stop printing, the system implodes.  They just try to keep it going another day, another week, another year.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:36 | 5329353 AustrianJim
AustrianJim's picture

Toe. Water. Insert.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:36 | 5329356 Madcow
Madcow's picture

No way.  The bankers are good and short about now.  All the "investors" have been corralled into the slaughtering pen. 

The bankers will make $Trillions $Quadrillions in the collpase.  And then Congress will be begging them to "do something" and so we'll get big tax increases to pay for new bailouts and QE, more wars and government predator drones and panty-cams. 

 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:39 | 5329377 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

Panty cams on a stick? On a dick?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:47 | 5329431 replaceme
replaceme's picture

I hate to say I agree with someone that just said pantycam, but yea, the bankers can't clean up until the market tanks - they then sweep in with all that free money and buy, buy, buy Mortimer, buy.  Madcow the prophet.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:37 | 5329357 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

'Terror threat': Los Angeles quarantines city bus, driver after masked man yells "I have Ebola" http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/14/terror-threat-los-angeles-quarantines-city-...

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:36 | 5329359 besnook
besnook's picture

inflate you fuckers! you told me to set up for inflation. i set up for inflation. inflate, you fuckers!!!!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:37 | 5329362 tumblemore
tumblemore's picture

richerer

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:36 | 5329363 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

Print away you fucks just look how great Japan is with that policy.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:10 | 5329952 css1971
css1971's picture

Japan just didn't do it big enough.

 

Really, we need to get the ropes out. Seems to be the only way to keep the elites in check.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:37 | 5329371 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

end the fed already

with this guy's logic, we will never ever ever ever ever ever not have QE.  Which ironically will lead to worse things.

 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:37 | 5329372 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

of course, it is all dialectics without finding the truth

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:39 | 5329373 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

We may go 4 months or so before the wheels fall off but with the rest of the world collapsing into the Fed's end of QE, they will restart in January but try to call it something else.  There is NO way that I can imagine going a whole year without artificial buying to keep interest rates down.  A rise would KILL housing and all ancillary retail and make US interest payments ugly going forward.  Why also should the US try to be austere when Japan has shown we have 20 years more of this game before anyone takes it seriously.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:40 | 5329387 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

He'd also do it in a heartbeat if there was a worrisome "decline of confidence" in the market ie. it goes down another 500 pts, QE off will be suspended.  Get ready for a mother of a BTFD opp.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:41 | 5329389 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Let us be honest. How can there ever be a winding down of QE? The entire "wealth effect" economy of the west is now built on asset purchases by central banks, by money printing and by zero or negative interest rates to speculators.

No, the instant they even try to pull back, you see the markets panic. As well they should panic! Without endless QE the entire financialized economy is fucked!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:41 | 5329390 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

Hey EVERYBODY,

FORCE intellectual honesty.

Show this EVERYWHERE
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1223928

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:41 | 5329391 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Douche bag will douche.

Is it required to be douchy to be a Fed head?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:40 | 5329396 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

"If we really get a sustained, disinflationary forecast ... then I think moving back to additional asset purchases in a situation like that should be something we should seriously consider,"

 

oh brother,

 

i know ya'll getting sick of the parrot on my shoulder ... 

 

QE/ZIRP disinflationary ... deflationary when asset bubbles burst

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:41 | 5329399 Keep Shootin
Keep Shootin's picture

Long $50/gal Milk

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:55 | 5330356 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

MY MILCH COW PAID OFF MY MORTGAGE!! ASK ME HOW!!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:41 | 5329406 silentboom
silentboom's picture

He's just fluffing a limp market.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:45 | 5329425 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Forgetting to cup the balls

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:27 | 5329671 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Isn't that a magic trick . . . Cup'n'balls?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:43 | 5329410 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

Buy what?

 

until taper the monthly QE was higher than monthly deficit (and much of that debt issued on the shorter end ... FR been purchasing blended maturity of 9 years)

 

Frankly, i don't see QE until deficit explodes back to $trillion territory ... which will mean we're back in a recession

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:47 | 5329415 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Peter Schiff and others were right on. QE4 as soon as the market started dropping a bit.

The Federal Reserve is stuck keeping rates low. They can't raise them no matter what.

Only way rates go higher is with a currency crisis.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:48 | 5329434 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Fed rate is not created by Fed.  Fed follows market rate.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/about/us-prime-rate/

 

Fed's buying power is gone - so the rest of the bond market will pick up the slack - at much higher rates.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:45 | 5329420 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Never seen so many "fed side shows"

 

Yellen must be getting tired of spewing her bullshit, so it's time to get the fed-fuds to do some spinning.

 

Williams - the economy is a piece of shit you are a fucking con-man.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:45 | 5329423 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

My comment from a few years back, when people were still questioning if QE would continue (it did) and it still applies:

Cougar_w: Thu, 05/24/2012 - 17:18

Hope you didn't put much money on that bet, Dawg. These fuckers are going to print hard enough to wake the dead. They'll print like mo'fos, print like mad men, print like fly pimps. Print until their eyes bleed.

They will print via the swaps, via bank bailouts and mergers, via fixed Treasury yields, via real honest-to-God negative interest rates, via loans to banks on no collateral, via payroll tax reductions, and in the end via actual fiat paper instruments which they might very well drop in bails from actual mutherfuckinghelicopters.

They will not give two figs what anyone thinks.

Here is why.

Because this is the Goddamned end of it my friend. There is no accounting beyond this point. There will be no history of it. No one to take notes of rates of exchange, or of the graft and violence, nobody to worry about the deficit or the GDP or the national debt of any nation large or small under the blazing Goddamned sun.

End. Of. It. Does anyone bitch about how Rome totally debased their coinage at the end? Hell no. But whoever did it had enough to hand and grabbed some land with a nice vineyard and sat back and waited for the Middle Ages to start 700 years further on.

And that's what a singularity is about. Anything that passes through is striped of all meaning. Nothing we think is important now will remain so beyond the event horizon. Nobody will remember, nobody will write about it, nobody will be held to any standard. Ever for evar.

So yeah, they'll print like the mad crazed terrorists they are. Because they have nothing to lose, and maybe something to gain. Maybe a dollar. Maybe a day. Maybe a slim chance to escape with some of the loot. Whatever the fuck advantage they see in it, for themselves and their elite crap wanking buddies, they will full-on-full-time-fucking do it to advantage.

 

Watch for it, Dawg. It's totally on this time, on like Donkey Kong. And when the dust is settled in a generation hence it's going to have become  another unbelievable episode among the ages of men.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:08 | 5329554 spinone
spinone's picture

Print until their eyes bleed

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:41 | 5329755 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Yeah well at the time it was just me being poetic. These days, that kind of accusation might initiate a CDC quarantine .

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:50 | 5329825 css1971
css1971's picture

Prophetic!

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:05 | 5329871 css1971
css1971's picture

Yeah, think I'll print this out and frame it for posterity.

 

Oh and you're wrong by the way. We do still remember the first (roman) debaser. Most don't realise it but he's been imortalised in the bible.

 

666 - The number of the beast.

 

Turn your speakers up to 11 and hit this link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mHe6FMs46o

 

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:20 | 5330056 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

css1971 - Great tune! I love Iron Maiden. 666 was the seal of Nero, they used to use wax to seal letters. The Romans were debasing far before Nero, that was the end of the empire.

The Revelations number is geometry. 6x6x6 is a pyramid. Think of the food pyramid or wealth equality pyramids. Government is a pyramid, governments are tools. It is how we organize our very thoughts.

A Republic will always turn into a monarchy until we better develop other evolutionary thinking which translate into tools.

More QE? What the peasants still have something left to steal?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:48 | 5330291 css1971
css1971's picture

He was the first Roman emperor to debase the coinage. Hence all the mark of the beast in your right hand stuff in the bible.

He also put a load of christians to death in various unpleasant ways; Nero was the antichrist.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 16:52 | 5330695 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

css1971 - You are incorrect that Nero was the first emperor to debase the currency: http://mises.org/daily/3663 

As to the mark of the beast. When John of Patmos wrote Revelations, there was no kingdom or empire that marked people on the hand or forehead to conduct trade - that is what the mark is and the passages tell this pretty clearly. Revelations also speaks of numbers such as the size of armies being 200M in world war which could not have existed in his time. The angel tells John that this would be a future empire, one that was, is right now (Roman) and will be again after having received a deathstroke. I do not believe anti-christ is a person like Dracula but a group of countries. It is best for each individual to read Revelations on there own and draw there own conclusions. Christ did tip over the money-changers at the temple for debasing the coins the Jews came to the temple with, they did not want the Ceasar's face on the coins for tithing and on top of a userous fee to melt them down, the temple added lead to the coins.

I enjoy the study of particle physics these days over scripture but I did find the advice to "seek God and you'll find him" as truth. But it isn't the way that most Christians would understand, especially since they don't read there own bibles in the first place and nor do they use logic as Paul advised to analyze truth, early churches started squabbling over doctrine and missing the simple point of the gospel in how to treat one another. What that means to analyze is to have comparisons, of multiple data points and religions of all stripes discourage it. Hence, I no longer relate to Christianity and am a Pandeist. I can believe what Christ said and not define myself to a religion. Same with government types and 'isms'. Governments are set up as protection rackets but all wind up becoming looting mechanisms - then they collapse. That this Republic lasted so long would probably have surprised the Founding Fathers.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 17:10 | 5330696 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

dupe

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:47 | 5329426 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

The first 3 QE's worked oh so well...

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:48 | 5329438 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Fed knows it can't raise rates. Only the market hasn't figured that out yet.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 15:51 | 5330317 tumblemore
tumblemore's picture

If they raise rates the banks collapse 10 minutes later.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:49 | 5329441 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

China uses competition of small units under a centralized economic umbrella. They run them as mini experiments, take the ideas that work, implement them in all of the businesses. They are moving away from communism, toward more capitalism, but it is still all centrally controlled. 

As capitalism fails because of intervention, the USA is selling all the assets to a centralized bank, the Fed. USA is running mini experiments in communism, taking the ideas that they think work, and implementing them throughout the system. They are moving away from capitalism, towards more communism, towards more central planning. 

I used to think the Fed was going to be the Bad bank that would be thrown away with all the bad debt when they rebooted the SDR. Now I am not so sure. They may own it all and "let us play" since they need players to work it.

How do you convince folks to stop being capitalists? Save them when they fail.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:13 | 5329570 spinone
spinone's picture

Scary.  I thought the Fed was the bad bank too.  Maybe you're right, or closer to right.  Does it really matter?  If the Fed is shut down, they'll just start up another with the same owners, so the play is the same.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:49 | 5329447 madcows
madcows's picture

thanks alot, asshole

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:53 | 5329472 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Each QE seems to be making things Moar Better....

Or is it the other way around?

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:54 | 5329476 constantine
constantine's picture

These turds are embarassing.  So after a 200% gain over the course of 5-6 years, we now get a 10% decline and they're already thinking about running the printing presses again.  What everybody likes to call 'money-printing' or 'quantitative easing' I like to refer, more simply and directly, as welfare for old-money.  

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:00 | 5329512 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

So, roughly a 70% drop from here gets us to the correct value....

If they would allow it.

Bring it on

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 14:08 | 5329547 rejected
rejected's picture

8-9000 seems about right to me.

Tue, 10/14/2014 - 13:55 | 5329480 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Nothing new here. We have been saying for years they will not stop and Cannot raise rates. It will not end until the people make it end. And that is way down the road. Sad to say.

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