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Ebola! How Worried Should We Be?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Chris Martenson via Peak Prosperity,

The current Ebola outbreak, unlike others throughout history, is lasting a very long time; with cases now being reported on a variety of continents well outside of its equatorial African origin.

I'm not especially worried about Ebola striking me or my loved ones, for reasons I'll explain in a moment. But I'm growing increasingly concerned about government response to the outbreak.

So let's spend some time understanding the nature of Ebola, specifically, and viral contagion, more generally. At the very least, Ebola can serve as an instructive reminder about how our society's responses to a viral outbreak could prove to be at least as disruptive and damaging as the virus itself.

Ebola

While very often cited as being 90% fatal once contracted, Ebola is rarely that lethal. In fact it was only that lethal in a single isolated outbreak. A 50% to 70% mortality rate is more common. As of Oct 10 2014, the latest outbreak had afflicted 8,376 and killed 4,024 -- a mortality rate of 48%.

This places the Ebola strain responsible for the latest outbreak on the lower end of the Ebola lethality scale. Don't misunderstand me: this is still a very deadly virus, to be sure. But it's not a guaranteed death sentence, either.

Viruses come in a wide variety of types and shapes. But the general structure they all share is that they have some form of nuclear material, either DNA itself or RNA, housed inside of a protein capsule. Think of a peanut M&M, where the peanut is the genetic payload and the outer coatings serve both a protective purpose (while the virus is seeking a new host) and as the means of docking with a host's cell.

That’s really all a virus is. A few proteins and some genetic material. No membranes, no sexual merging of genetic material, and no ability to replicate themselves all on their own. There are debates still ongoing today as to whether a virus should even be considered a living thing.

The life cycle of a virus is very simple. A virus particle will dock with a target host cell (most viruses are highly specific for the precise sorts of cells they will and won’t bind to), insert its genetic payload which hijacks the host’s replicative machinery, replicate the genetic payload wildly which codes for both new genetic material and protein capsule subunits, and then reassemble lots of intact virus particles which then escape the host cell to go and find other cells to infect.

Within a mammalian host, once a virus attack is recognized, an antibody response is mounted and the fight is on. As the virus particles escape the host cell (which is usually damaged or killed as a consequence of having been hijacked) it is vulnerable to being identified by a host antibody, itself a highly-specialized protein that will 'dock' with a virus particle more or less permanently (they bind together very tightly) and thereby incapacitate the virus’ ability to dock to a new host cell.

With lethal viruses, something goes wrong with this process. Either the virus replicates too quickly for the host to counter effectively, or the virus tricks the immune response into either too little or too much activity -- both conditions which can end poorly for the host.

For example, the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 preferentially killed those between the ages of 20 and 40. This was unusual because it's exactly opposite the flu mortality patterns we normally expect, where the very young and the very old are the most susceptible.

The best prevailing explanation for this is that it was the very health and vigor of the patients that did them in. The Spanish flu (and other avian flu strains) cause the host body to unleash a 'cytokine storm' which is a very unhealthy, and sometimes lethal, positive feedback loop between immune cells and a class of attractor signaling molecules called cytokines. As more cytokines are released, say into the lung tissue, immune cells are attracted and can then release more cytokines, which attracts more immune cells, and so on. The place to which they are attracted becomes damaged by this overly-aggressive response of the immune cells and for the Spanish flu victims, this happened in the lungs, critically impairing respiration. Hence, the 'healthier' a host was, the more damage the Spanish flu virus caused.

In the case of Ebola, the virus preferentially targets the cells that line the inner walls of blood vessels (a.k.a. endothelial cells) as well as white blood cells, a fact which helps to spread the virus throughout the body fairly rapidly, as white blood cells actively migrate system-wide.

Through a variety of mechanisms, the Ebola virus causes the endothelial cells to detach from the blood vessels and die, which compromises blood vessel integrity. This targeting of the blood vessels is why the Ebola virus is classified as a hemorrhagic fever. The patient's blood vessels literally break down. That leads to the many visible symptoms of an Ebola victim, not the least of which is various burst blood vessels all throughout the body.

(Source)

Currently, it's thought that once exposed, an Ebola victim will incubate the virus for a period of up to 21 days before symptoms express. It's only once the victim is symptomatic that they themselves can transmit the virus and infect others.

This characteristic of Ebola, more than any other, is why I don’t fear it overly much as a pandemic risk. A far more worrisome virus would be one that's infective during asymptomatic stages of its host cycle, as is the case with HIV.

Early symptoms of Ebola include the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache and sore throat. Unfortunately, that pretty much describes any reasonably intense flu, which complicates screening procedures and causes unnecessary worry among those who merely have the flu but worry about the possibility of Ebola.

Nonetheless, authorities have no choice but to take every traveling passenger with these very ordinary flu symptoms as a possible Ebola case. It's a safe bet we’ll hear plenty in the coming days and weeks about Hazmat-suited response teams escorting sickly passengers off of planes.

A tip: if you have a fever, don’t travel. You'll worry a lot of people unnecessarily. And you may end up in quarantine, really throwing your travel plans off the rails.

The Short-Term Risk

While gruesome and heartbreaking, the actual number of deaths by Ebola as well as the total number of people infected is very, very low compared to other hazards out there.

Are you more worried about Ebola than driving to work? If so, you have those risks entirely inverted.

(Source)

In the above chart, there are 27 years worth of data contained in each data point. That means that if the chart reads 2,700 for a given day, then an average of 100 people died on US roads on that day each year out of 27.

For the US, the above chart translates into ~33,000 vehicle deaths per year. Even in Africa where some 4,000 people have died from Ebola so far in 2014, America's vehicle fatalities dwarf that current statistic.

Other communicable diseases such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and diarrheal disease cause some 9 million deaths worldwide each year.

This is why I'm personally not that worried about Ebola striking me or my family here in the eastern US at this time. Nor would I be overly worried in Dallas, where the first two US-soil cases of Ebola command national attention. The odds of getting infected at this point are very low at the individual level.

The Longer-Term Risk

However, I do think that the reaction to Ebola, which could include ex- and inter-US travel bans and other economically and socially disruptive practices could be another matter altogether at this moment in time. While there is a small, but non-zero, chance that this Ebola strain could morph into something more virulent, there is a very good chance of a more Draconian government response developing.

In Part 2: Prudent Precautions To Take Now, we dive into not only what damage to our civil liberties and livelihood these heavy-handed and poorly executed government responses are likely to be, but we also address the actions that individuals can take today on important questions like:

  • Who is at risk of infection in the current ebola outbreak?
  • What's the likelihood the current strain will morph into a more virulent form?
  • What are the best steps to take today to reduce your vulnerability to a pandemic?

What Ebola reminds us of is that when a true pandemic arrives it will travel much faster than those in the past (thanks to air travel being an order of magnitude faster than dawning recognition) and that our complex, highly leveraged, just-in-time global economy is utterly unprepared for even a minor glitch in the flow of goods let alone the virtual lockdown that a true pandemic would require.

A small amount of preparing can make you much less vulnerable should (when?) that comes to pass.

Click here to access Part 2 of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access)

 

 

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Wed, 10/15/2014 - 21:56 | 5338913 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

Nurse takes it home to the family, kids take it to school.  Boom, it's over.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:02 | 5338928 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

very worried

as in 'i am leaving, you can bill me'..level of worried

this is BIBLICAL level

 

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:11 | 5339023 erkme73
erkme73's picture

I get so sick of the comparisons of Ebola deaths to traffic fatalities.   Really?  Is Ebola a necessary evil to get to work?  When we kill someone with our cars, do those crashed cars then crash into two other cars (killing them), and so on?  Does a motor vehcile accident/fatality spread relentlessly to others?

Un-effing-real how "smart" people can get so distracted by red-herrings that aren't even in the same game, never mind ball park.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:14 | 5339045 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Normalcy bias...

I don't care that much. It's giving us time to prepare before the panic starts.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:16 | 5339064 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

October 13 - WHO Director General Margaret Chan said: "I have never seen a health event threaten the very survival of societies and governments in very poor countries."

We're looking not at just the chance of a military coup or the absconding of a president to a villa in France, but at the potential for over 20 million people to lapse into anarchy, a kind of post-apocalyptic social disintegration.

An implosion is the rush of higher pressure into a relative vacuum; a power vacuum in West Africa could lead to a kind of parody of the European scramble for colonies in the 1880s. Only now it might be China setting up protectorates because the old imperial powers (and the US) just don't have the money or the will to do so.

Or the western corporations with investments there might simply hire mercenaries to protect their mines and factories.

One predictable result of such anarchy would be an intensification of the migration out of West Africa, destabilizing neighbours like Nigeria, Ghana, and Ivory Coast. Meanwhile more would make their way to North Africa and try to reach Europe.

Health bureaucrats like Dr. Chan don't warn about social and political collapse without very good reason, and this report only makes her warning that much more urgent.

Source: http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/10/ebola-in-west-africa-impact-o...

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:32 | 5339148 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

a power vacuum in West Africa could lead to a kind of parody of the European scramble for colonies in the 1880s.

The reason the Europeans did not do a particularly good job at holding the colonies in Africa is because the continent was pretty toxic to them.  Malaria, dengue, lions, africans, and schistosomiasis did them in. 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:19 | 5339456 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

And Islam of course.  See "Algeria"    The hangover in France continues to intensify as the virus works its evil on that old, formerly proud nation state.  

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:50 | 5339610 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Given your simplistic approach to the current mortality rate of this outbreak, the concluded 48% is incorrectly low.  

Remember, you won't die the day or day after you're diagnosed, as there's a lag.  If you take the current diagnosed, and look at that same  population in a few weeks, you'll get the number for which you're looking.  It's going to be higher than 48%.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:06 | 5339679 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Not to mention all of the infected and dead that haven't even been counted in those statistics. If the WHO is saying 10k infections per week in a month and a half in Africa, that's a big jump from what is being reported today. Imagine 1000 infections and 480 deaths in this country. Or 10000/4800. The mortality rate will be high enough to scare people into staying at home. Goodbye consumer economy.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:13 | 5339701 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

You say that about the flu too? It will take more than 10,000. It will take someone healthy you know dying. Exponentials can take a while to kick in. Now, if you get 100,000 dead next summer, then we'll start thinking about cooking at home instead of hitting the china buffet.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:58 | 5339835 surfsup
surfsup's picture

Fear Porn on full afterburner!   

...

 

http://www.liberianobserver.com/commentaries/ebola-breakout-coincided-un...

 

http://www.liberianobserver.com/security/breaking-formaldeyde-water-alle...

 

http://www.jimstonefreelance.com/ebolie.html

Looks like this ebola scam is dealing with growing numbers saying no to flu vax...   With all the fear pumped out now it will not likely be as dull a flu vax season as last year... 

 

So the FIRST contact victims are nurses?  Gee, ya think they were given the experimental pre release GSK ebola vax?  Nah...   

http://healthimpactnews.com/2014/nurses-across-the-u-s-are-taking-a-stan...

 

"As 2014 begins to unfold, it is becoming clear that the medical care industry is facing a crisis.

We have already reported about how many doctors are refusing to participate in the new Obamacare health insurance exchanges (See: Seven out of every 10 Physicians in California are Rebelling against Obamacare). But another unintended consequence of new medical care legislation is the refusal of nurses to comply with new mandatory flu vaccination requirements. With a nation-wide shortage in nurses already problematic long before Obamacare was implemented, things are only going to get worse..."

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 01:53 | 5339948 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

To answer the headlines question... NO. I am not worried about ebola.

I still remember the 2009 swine flu hoax, SARS, foot and mouth disease, HIV, and remember GRID? Gay-Related Immune Deficiency?

Yes, even back then there was plenty of doom porn on these comparing them to the 1918 influenza and the Black Death.

I've been in this conspiracy doom and gloom biz for quite a while and ebola is the latest trendiest media fearmongering.

I'll get downvoted on this post, the same way I got downvoted on posts in 2009 about swine flu, in 2005 on SARS, in 2000 about foot and mouth, and etc. etc. etc.

Media hype and spin. Same script. Different decade.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 02:12 | 5339971 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Are you a real doctor or do you just play one on Zero Hedge?

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 03:09 | 5340035 Rememberweimar
Rememberweimar's picture

Washington Post: “Obama said he had been in close contact with nurses at Emory University hospital who cared for two American Ebola patients. ‘I shook hands with, hugged and kissed not the doctors, but a couple of the nurses at Emory, because of the valiant work that they did in treating one of the patients. They followed the protocols, they knew what they were doing, and I felt perfectly safe doing so,’ he said.”

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 04:01 | 5340077 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is preference of Skittle, is not like eating Peanuts M&M.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 05:13 | 5340161 forexskin
forexskin's picture

two words:

exponential growth

its nothing to worry about until it is - estimated african cases under reported by a factor of 2.5, and the rate of growth is still ~50% / 3 week period, exclusive of probable undercounting.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:23 | 5340832 Titus
Titus's picture

Exactly. Chris Martinson lectures on exponential growth. How the fuck is it that he can't apply it to this situation?

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 10:30 | 5341179 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

+1 each to Titus and forexskin, who beat me to the punch.

Using the example of water-drops doubling their rate every minute into Shea Stadium as an example, which Martensen and others (Simon Black) have used, this is like comparing the situation of exponential growth in its early stages to a large Steady-State phenomenon.

The REAL question is:  Will this exponential growth continue in the West?

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 06:59 | 5340283 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 Washington Post: “Obama said he had been in close contact with nurses* at Emory University hospital who cared for two American Ebola patients. ‘I shook hands with, hugged and kissed not the doctors, but a couple of the nurses at Emory, because of the valiant work that they did in treating one of the patients. They followed the protocols, they knew what they were doing, and I felt perfectly safe doing so,’ he said.”

I thought you were being satirical, but, no, he really did say that! Hahahahha! Reality out-Onions The Onion, once more!

Can you imagine if he comes down with ebola! The wweping and wailing and gnashing of teeth by his supporters (St Barrack! St. Barrack is dying!) The gloating by his detractors!

*I wonder if they were 'nurses' the way that Kuwaiti 'nurse' attested to the 'fact' that Iraqi soldiers were throwing babies out of incubators?

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 06:36 | 5340243 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

@9thDoctor - people are clueless when it comes to history. They don't seem to remember what happened even a few short years ago with another hyped 'pandemic' scam.

Some may attribute this to 'ADHD' - but that's also nothing but a fraud.
Poor schooling has produced people unable to think critically. They can easily be frightened and manipulated.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:03 | 5340697 10PastMidnight
10PastMidnight's picture

im with you on that train of thought 9th, just more fear mongering and or civilian directional guidance if you want to be more precise.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:58 | 5339842 edotabin
edotabin's picture

I was watching the news and must admit I am getting more worried by the day.  I was 100% convinced there was something very subversive going on but it gets worse the more I read and see. I don't know how it can get worse than 100% but you know what I mean.

Geraldo was recommending an Ebola Czar in addition to that liar Frieden. The guy Geraldo recommended was the general that brought New Orleans under control after Katrina. If one reads between the lines, it does not bode well.

That father of the NBC camera man was supposed to be talking about his son's condition etc., instead he started talking about how they had discussed going to Africa beforehand and how it wouldn't be so bad if there were outbreak in America.  Really?

The nurse that contracted Ebola had a fever and flew on a plane?  Really? Would you do something like this if you had treated an Ebola patient and suddenly developed a fever?

The doctor that works for NBC, Snydermann, broke her quarantine to go and buy soup. Really? She may very well not have anything but a Dr. doing this is unacceptable.

There is a new WHO report out stating that the incubation period is up to 42 days in about 10% of the cases. Really?  Good to know.

http://www.naturalnews.com/047267_ebola_outbreak_incubation_period_viral...

 

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 01:59 | 5339954 European American
European American's picture

Personally, I'm more concerned about "THEIR" upcoming vaccine, containing the Live Ebola Virus, Ebola Strain 343, Thimerosal (Mercury), Squalene Adjuvents, Monosodium Glutamate, and many more goodies, coming to those who are begging for it, as well as mandatorily forced on those who resist. That's when all hells going to break loose. Locked and Loaded.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 07:08 | 5340301 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Locked and loaded, eh? So after all your neighbours have had the vaccine, and the CDC crew come knocking at the door, you're going to go out in a blaze of glory, huh?

Pull the other one.

You know why they haven't made any serious attempts to disarm the American populace? Because American gun owners think that tyranny can't happen as long as the populace is armed. Meanwhile, the Federal government can lock you in a cage for ingesting the wrong kind of plant, or importing the wrong kind of fish or lump of wood, the IRS tax code is 40 trillion pages long, the American government incinerates shepherds all over the middle east.... you can't collect your own rainwater... you gun guys are hilarious. Tyranny is already here and neither you nor your forefathers will use your guns to stop it gaining ground. Was there a revolt when FDR confiscated everyone's gold?

So knock off the tough talk. Your gun isn't your defence - it's your teddy bear. And Uncle Sam will continue to allow you to cuddle it while he bends you over.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 07:52 | 5340407 backwaterdogs
backwaterdogs's picture

I gotta say....Im gun totin' nut job too, but this guys' gotta point.  Really, what are any of the preppers gonna do with their at best .308 semi-autos....and most won't even have that.

Tyranny IS already here .... in fact was advertised and supported by the majority.....not a shot fired.

Teddy bear is a very accurate analogy.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:01 | 5340688 Spumoni
Spumoni's picture

"Your gun isn't your defence - it's your teddy bear."

 

++^

 

Better be careful, you might be forced into a job at CNN...

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:10 | 5340737 10PastMidnight
10PastMidnight's picture

just one word answers please, Afghanistan comes to mind when someone trumps up the "military prowess" of our great lie of a nation. your entire summery hinges on the greatness of something that doesn't even exist.

 

no tough talk needed really.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 21:39 | 5349420 Jack Burtan
Jack Burtan's picture

Have to wait and see.

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 10:49 | 5341305 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If you really want to turn on the Doom-porn tap to its full flow, then the thing to worry about is when a Superpower (or a group within it) uses Ebola as a cover to spread other nasty viruses.

That's when the real fun begins -- on an Agenda 21 scale.  Forget drones, chems or nukes.  It's viruses you have to worry about - prepper or not. 

If these things are set loose, then insular, monastic living (no one in, no one out) will have to be the way to wait it out, for Mother Nature to sweep through and cleanse itself of the Human epidemic.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 10:56 | 5341356 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

Looking for information on the strain - of course CDC and WHO are saying this is not the patented bundibugyo virus they engineered, they're saying its the naturally occuring one....plausible deniability and all that....but  do we know  either way???

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:38 | 5339201 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

"Health bureaucrats like Dr. Chan don't warn about social and political collapse without very good reason, and this report only makes her warning that much more urgent."

Very true the WHO has very good reason since it is a tentacle in the roll out of the global government. They know the exact plan necessary for the "anarchy" to bring about change we can all believe in. At which point the Director General will expect to be promoted to Field Marshall

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:54 | 5339303 Borrow Owl
Borrow Owl's picture

"...but at the potential for over 20 million people to lapse into anarchy, a kind of post-apocalyptic social disintegration."

You say 'anarchy' like it's a Bad Thing.

That's an attitude that I don't think i'll ever understand.

Where you see 'social disintegration' I see the unpecedented (at least in my lifetime) opportunity to engage in truly free, open and voluntary trade with little or no fear of being robbed along the way by the stinking hordes of shitbag bureaucrats which currently infest damn near every nook, cranny, and bodily orifice on this batshit insane planet.

 

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:12 | 5339408 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

with little or no fear of being robbed along the way by the stinking hordes of shitbag bureaucrats

 

Sure, but the stinking hordes of shitbag parasites that infest every nook, cranny and bodily orifice of the country will take over the honors.  Be careful what you wish for.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:23 | 5339481 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

wow

'Clipboard Man' with no protection too close to Dallas Ebola nurse before airlift? (VIDEO)

http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/15/clipboard-man-with-no-protection-too-close-...

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:57 | 5339639 IRC162
IRC162's picture

What.  The.  Fuck.  Was.  That. 

 

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:53 | 5339624 Borrow Owl
Borrow Owl's picture

"Sure, but the stinking hordes of shitbag parasites that infest every nook, cranny and bodily orifice of the country will take over the honors.  Be careful what you wish for. "

 

Maybe.... maybe not.

The majority of the parasites are nothing without suckling at the teat of Leviathon.

If/when Leviathon finally goes tits up, that teat goes dry.

I would not want to be in their shoes at that point.

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:11 | 5340736 Spumoni
Spumoni's picture

Well, I see your point...but if anarchy is some romantic vision you have, it only means you've never experienced it. In fact, almost nobody has, at least as far back as Neanderthal man. Where anarchy has been expressed, throughout history, it has universally given rise to bureaucracy and the rule of law. All tribes. Globally. Without a single exception. Ever. The reason? Unlike most other species, humans have zero ability to mind their own business. The immediate product of anarchy is feudalism and the making of a robber-baron power structure. Exactly what we have now...on a huge scale. 

The error is somewhere between anarchy and society. The error is us. And if we don't fix this, we can just spend the next ten thousand years getting back to the same place, again.

Sherwood Forest was bad enough when its brigands only had staves, arrows and spears. 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:35 | 5339545 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Most likely a collapse of civillization will enable a force like ISIS to fill the vacuum. The Islamic State has unlimited tolerance for casualities, and does not fear death. If society collapses, they will move in and take over.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:19 | 5339717 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

That's why we have guns. When they start, we know the police aren't around to stop the shooting anymore.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:39 | 5339789 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

We're looking not at just the chance of a military coup or the absconding of a president to a villa in France, but at the potential for over 20 million people to lapse into anarchy, a kind of post-apocalyptic social disintegration.

 

So basically it's going to be a repeat of what happened to the Native American cultures .... except there are 6 world powers waiting to take the territory (Russia, China, US, Europe, India, Islam) 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 15:32 | 5342959 ajax
ajax's picture

 

 

"A villa in France"  hahaha, more likely a modest bungalow in Canton Geneve ...

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 01:17 | 5339891 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Guess old Margie took a pass on that famine in Ethiopia and Somalia thingy. Malnutrition is a health problem , right?

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:24 | 5339082 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Shallow, lazy, and stupid piece.  Reads like some women's magazine was paying him by the word.

Dude doesn't know the difference between DNA and RNA and sucks at logic.

Car accidents are not doubling every three weeks, and there is no risk of a flash over where all the cars wreck within a few days.  Love the way this idiot laughs off a 70% mortality.

Don't worry Chris, Barry and Frieden will stab you in the back, or got your back, or will get back to you when they quit fucking up.   Whatever.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:29 | 5339152 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

You do know that some viruses contain DNA and some contain RNA as their genetic material, right?  And that Ebola is an RNA virus?

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:34 | 5339169 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

With velcro-like receptors that bind to cellular tissue.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 01:14 | 5339883 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Pay Attention.

See? Everyone can use these cheap psych tricks that they copied out of a "Win at Business the Steve Harriman Way" correspondence course.

Now go think of something else to play with now that this one is all used up.

Friggin parrots. Polly wanna make you listen, awkkk.

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:23 | 5339487 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

And it doesn't have much of capsule, from memory of a recent conversation with a CDC scientist.   Lack of a capsule makes it more fragile, particularly outside a host.  From memory.  

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:12 | 5340754 Spumoni
Spumoni's picture

Well, we know there's at least two who don't.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:31 | 5339159 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Hoff.

Wow. I rarely see you give direct head shots. Well. Carry on.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:32 | 5339160 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:33 | 5339162 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:13 | 5339415 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

If you get a subscription you can read part 2 and be saved.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 02:59 | 5340025 SF beatnik
SF beatnik's picture

Shallow, lazy, and stupid piece.

 

Well put.

Chris does serious damage to his reputation with this simpleton analysis of the ebola situation.

Now the reader must wonder about the soundness of Chris's many other utterances.

 

 

 

 


Thu, 10/16/2014 - 05:32 | 5340159 Mr. Ed
Mr. Ed's picture

@kaiserhoff: good points.

I also really didn't need the ding-dong school in molecular biology; and, it's really not relavent.  If Mr. Martenson would attempt to offer the same depth in a subject he actually knew something about (like finance?), that would be welcome... so far I haven't seen it.

I see Martenson as a person who, as you suggest, is logic challenged:  vehicle stats are fairly stable over time while the number of disease carriers is NOT and as far as I know, vehicular accidents are not communicable.  Soooo... the analogy really doesn't work.  He has a lot of material rattling around in his head, but has trouble arranging it I think.

More importantly, he seems unable to think logically about the most dangerous aspect of ebola: there is a long incubation period of 21 days (and perhaps as long as 42 days) during which infected individuals are asymptomatic.  I don't know what the current viral titer detection threshold is for ebola, but as far as I know, it's not low enough to use in an effective blood test unless symptoms have appeared.  This means that vast numbers of ebola infected individuals can enter the country having no detectable disease and disappear into the general population only to develop symptoms weeks later.  At that point (who knows when that is??) uncontrolled transmission can begin.  THAT is scary. 

AT THE PRESENT TIME, OUR ONLY DEPENDABLE WEAPON AGAINST THIS DISEASE IS QUARANTINE

Frieden didn't get it when he ordered the body temperature screening at airports (I believe this was his idea - he certainly bears responsibility for it).  Obama doesn't get it (or doesn't want to get it) because he has for a long time now failed to end flights from the affected regions.  Martenson doesn't seem to know which end is up either even though the logic is so simple, a little kid could reason it out.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 05:57 | 5340203 effendi
effendi's picture

The 42 days is not correct (if you read the results carefully). 95% are within 21 days and another 3% are between 22 and 42 days. The remaining 2% are not explained but that therefore means potentially MORE than a 42 day incubation period for some. 

Now based on the typical 21 day to symptoms the experts say they do not transmit until they show symptoms. Does that apply to those who take longer? Can anybody rule out asymptomatic Ebola "Typhoid Mary" carriers shedding enough Ebola to infect those with whom they cross paths in the extra weeks they unknowingly are infected?. 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:30 | 5340787 Mr. Ed
Mr. Ed's picture

Yup, that's a good point about viral shedding in cases where rgw incubation period is extended.  One person could do an incredible amount of damage.  Very disturbing.

But it's almost scarier still that these CDC management people honestly don't seem capable of using simple logic.  Even if they assigned someone to elucidate the issues you raise and a credible theory were developed, I really don't think they could figure out how to put the information to use!

...seems like we're living out that movie Idiocracy.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:23 | 5339093 PoorMan429
PoorMan429's picture

Eo 13603 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:28 | 5339133 hobopants
hobopants's picture

This guy doesn't quite have a handle on the doom porn thing, more fear mongering, less logic please.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 02:04 | 5339961 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Dying of Ebola and dying from a traffic accident has the same end result... Death.

That's un-effing-real isn't it?

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 06:23 | 5340224 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

Yes +1. I've read some of Chris Martenson's work before, including a presentation he gave on exponential growth as related to oil production. The man is clearly intelligent and appears to have noble intent, but I was surprised he fell for the classic 'more people die each day from X so don't worry too much about Y' philosophy. Not even close enough to be called apples and oranges, Chris.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 07:11 | 5340313 Refuse-Resist
Refuse-Resist's picture

Excellent comment -- upvote.

Exponential function for dummies: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgDxWNV4wWY&feature=player_detailpage#t=19

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 08:31 | 5340571 That's all Folks
That's all Folks's picture

Car crashes don't kill at a 70% rate.. just saying. Long chlorine bleach.

-that's all folks-

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:13 | 5339031 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

 

Ebola Syndrome movie link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KOIaHDPRWQ

Synopsis:

Hong Kong 1986: A restaurant employee murders his boss and mutilates his wife, he escapes to South Africa where he rapes a Zulu-girl, who is infected with the ebola virus. In the restaurant where he now works he murders his boss and the bosses wife after raping her. He chops them up and makes them into hamburgers, which he sells in the restaurant, spreading the ebola virus. When the police come on his trail he moves back to Hong Kong and an ebola epidemic starts there.

Lots of blood and violence! Enjoy.

Fish Gone Bad

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:19 | 5339075 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Compared to what the CDC is telling us, that sounds pretty tame and believable.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:22 | 5339099 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Sounds like what happened to netflix investors today......

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:21 | 5339729 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

Sounds like what happened to netflix gamblers today......

There, I fixed it for you.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:43 | 5339240 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

wow!

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:06 | 5338978 junction
junction's picture

When you se a fleet of corporate Gulfstream jets heading to Hawaii, along with Air Force One, you know it is game over for us peasants.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:24 | 5339489 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Hmmm, maybe Larry Ellison will sell half of Lanai to Obama.  

Watch for a large government contract to Oracle...

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:52 | 5339619 robnume
robnume's picture

I don't like to be called a"peasant." I want you to call me an indentured servant. "Cuz that's what I am.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 02:06 | 5339939 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

You're not an indentured servant; an indentured servant gets his freedom back after he has served the time required to pay off the debt for which he indentured himself. You, sir, are a serf, just like the rest of us, with no hope of freedom in the present paradigm. Your purpose is to work and pay taxes and make little serfs. A free man owns his labor and his person. A serf pays a percentage of his labor to his feudal lord in exchange for a hut to live in, a plot to work for his own benefit and the protection of his lord. A slave owns neither his labor nor his person. 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 11:13 | 5341425 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Indentured Servant", you say?  Fine, IS it is.

IS is as IS is.  ;-)

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 06:02 | 5340208 effendi
effendi's picture

I hope every one of those Gulfstream jets are cleaned by peasants who have Ebola and decide to sit in the comfy seats (sans pants) and spit (or wank) into the jars of caviar. 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 11:18 | 5341382 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Yup, glad to see that others have figured this out also.

Don't claim to be the first to say it, but I've been saying for a while -- most recently in July...  [Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:06 | 5010456 new Kirk2NCC1701

Don't worry.  Larry Ellis bought a whole island in the Hawaiian chains, where he owns 98% of the land.

Many Elite of TPTB will be safe there.   On Diego Garcia and similar places also, no doubt.   It's a small club and we're not in it.   And it's a decent location and size of an island, and we're not on it.] End of reference.

 

p.s. In a viral D-Day, PM might be of value during some kind of a Recovery & Rebuilding, but won't do jack for you during the Storm.  You'd best be prepped with all the stuff you'll need during the viral firestorm:  Shelter, food, water, meds, toiletries, fuel, tools & consumables, G & A (a veritable General Store), and lots of quality friends with real life-skills -- unless you want to live like a Caveman, hiding out in some rat hole.  

Note:  Whoever endures and rebuilds fastest and biggest... Wins!  Same as it ever was, if you study history (or any complex bio-systems).

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 21:56 | 5338922 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Ebola backwards is "a lobe". Never forget this.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:14 | 5339054 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Duly noted.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:02 | 5339364 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

And what is Tulsa backwards?

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 21:57 | 5338926 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

Watch this for everything you want to know about Ebola:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6c27iBq9_8

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 11:31 | 5341566 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Moral:  Don't eat Tropical Bush Meat!    An NO Oral Sex -- the other "bush meat".

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 12:02 | 5341773 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

My smarmy comment (above) aside (gallows humor)... The Moral seems to be "No Good Deed Goes Unpunished", or "The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions".

Had these Christians/Whites from Europe and Americas (US, Canada) not interfered with the natural cycle of local epidemics, they would and could not have spread.  They would have remained local, and Nature would have solved the matter.  Instead, these arrogant, presumptuous "Christian/White Well-Intentioned Assholes" effectively decided to... "Play God":  "WE know better...what's good for you.  We're from... and we're here to help you, to save you"

I view these so-called "well intentioned" Missions as little more than a camouflaged Vanguard of a Foreign Invasion to come -- which will bring Banksters, more Crooks & Opportunists than genuine "Investors", all looking to make a quick buck and totally oblivious to or uncaring about the Law of Unintended Consequences.

IMO, "Missionaries" and "Aid Workers" are Phase 1 of Imperialism.  Except that in this case, instead of bringing (European) diseases to the (American) Natives, Nature laughed back and GAVE them the disease from the locals.

Moral:  The PRIME DIRECTIVE applies.  Stay the fuck out of Africa, and let Africa evolve on its own pace, and its own way!

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 21:58 | 5338932 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

In the second part, Chris provides some good preparedness tips.

In addition, Tess Pennington, former Red Cross worker, has a website and book for additional info.

http://readynutrition.com/ (general site)

http://readynutrition.com/resources/week-28-of-52-pandemic-preparedness_16122011/ (specific preparedness for pandemics)

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1496092589(her book)

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 11:24 | 5341495 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

For those who are mathematically inclined, you may want to review and play with the math models in Epidemiology.  Excel is perfect for the task.

Here are some sources: EPIDEMIOLOGY - MODELS & RESOURCES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_model

http://cabtes55.cnea.gov.ar/estadistica/abramson/notes/Epidemics-Lectures-PANDA.pdf

http://plus.maths.org/content/mathematics-diseases

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 21:59 | 5338933 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I have control of my vehicle, I have no control over a virus or dope .gov mandarins.

Influenza virus kills more than car accidents, and they haven't got a cure.

An un-contained Ebola pandemic with a 70% mortality rate warrants worry.

Especially considering two nurses with hazmat gear got it.

http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/mortality-risk

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:07 | 5338987 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

"Hello, Mr. Martenson. This six-shot revolver I'm holding up to your head is only loaded with four bullets. That's only a 66% mortality rate; so I'm sure you'll feel no anxiety whatsoever as I pull the trigger..."

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:25 | 5339113 Hulk
Hulk's picture

car accidents do not have an exponential growth curve, the fucking dumb asses...

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:48 | 5339600 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

THANK YOU!

(In fact...the actual number of highway fatalities has been declining in absolute terms...which is quite an achievement if you think about it.

Guess what...soon these will be a think of the past.)

Now...what did cock fag here have to say about..."the Ebola thingy."

Hmmm. Well...one thing he forgot to say is that THIS DISEASE IS NOT NEW.

It's been recognized for a LONG TIME. (1975)

That says to me...as with driving...there is a PLAN in place for dealing with it. What is this plan Mr. Ebola Expert? Let's start with that instead of your total phi king bullshit.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 01:49 | 5339944 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I found the tone a bit condescending, as well.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:27 | 5339128 sleigher
sleigher's picture

All other deaths/causes 512,000

 

Half a million of other.  I wonder what they are?  Other only falls behind heart disease and tumors.  huh...

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 21:58 | 5338936 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I spoke to my Dad on the phone last night. He asked me if I had heard of this Ebola thing. 

Change the channel, pops.  To date, he has yet to be attacked by any terrorist...so I figured it was sound advice. 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:02 | 5338951 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Obola is an opportunity for your friendly jackboots and is an opportunity for those whom would remove their boots when they're finished with them.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:02 | 5338958 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

Ebola risk is in addition to other risks, not instead of. So don't kid me by comparing them. Especially since we don't yet know how bad Ebola will be, just that it keeps getting worse in spite of official assurances to the contrary.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:11 | 5338963 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Eeek bad info. Present report from WHO has death rate at 70%.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100#t=articleResults
"This analysis shows that by September 14, a total of 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68.6 to 72.8) of case patients with definitive outcomes have died, and this rate was consistent among Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone (Table 2). "
That is with treatment. As facilities turned people away, motality for untreated patients is near 100%. Here in the US people far fair better, and probably looking at a 30% mortality unless hospitals become overwhelmed.

Additionally, though 95% of cases do present symptoms at 21 days or less, 5% exceeded this with some as long as 40 days. ( see liberia).

http://www.nejm.org/action/showImage?doi=10.1056%2FNEJMoa1411100&iid=f03

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:17 | 5339056 erkme73
erkme73's picture

UNLESS hosptials become overwhelmed?  They're ALREADY overwhelmed.   That Texas hospital has completely closed their ED.  No more patients AT ALL - over TWO Ebola patients.  The combined capacity for certified public BSL4 contianment centers is 10 patients.

This doesn't begin to address what happens when nurses and doctors refuse to show for work.  My wife is a pregnant ER physician.  She's seriously considering calling maternity leave early.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:57 | 5339334 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Get her outta there.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:10 | 5339690 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

WTF is she waiting for. Clearance from Frieden or the "eboly" liar in chief???

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:26 | 5339708 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Also re: hospital EDs & Urgent Cares - wait til "eboly" hits central ameruca &/or Mexico. Given the "eboly" liar in chief's open southern border door, "eboly" tidal wave into the southern border states. Yeehaa! Not if, but when.  Another great legacy thanks to the corrupt incompetent arrogant narcissistic illegal indonesian kenyan alien muslim sociopathic pathological liar in chief. 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 03:06 | 5340027 SF beatnik
SF beatnik's picture

And this is the biggest concern... tens of millions of Mexicans living in squalor to rival Monrovia's.

How can ebola be kept oput of Mexico? Or India, China, Brazil...?

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 08:47 | 5340621 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Why would an African flee from one shithole to another? The goal in fleeing is to improve your situation.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:27 | 5339120 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

US death rate presently stands at 100%

Two reported cases with no outcome yet.

Unknown number of potentially unreported cases.

Unknown number of cases as-yet unsymptomatic.  Five?.  Fifty?  Five hundred?

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:41 | 5339217 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Treated and released 2, one more soon to be released, and 3 in treatment with only 1 death.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:56 | 5339326 1512
1512's picture

Agree. Lame analysis, He's treating reported cases as concluded cases. It's a stock and flow model.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:52 | 5339614 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Just like his investing strategy I imagine...

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:26 | 5339748 humble_man
humble_man's picture

I've been tracking and calculating these estimates for 5 weeks, and I believe the fatality rate is currently 68.4% in Africa. I don't want to bore you with differentials and variables, and I do not work for any organization or government. You are free to believe what you like.....my only agenda is truth.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 03:08 | 5340028 SF beatnik
SF beatnik's picture

Welcome the Ebola Shadowstats man!

Your input is of interest. 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:04 | 5338972 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Who'll be more frightened like rabbits, the Urbanistans or the white bread picket fence suburanites?  

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:11 | 5339017 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Yes, and then some.

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 01:03 | 5339855 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

There is a sign on the highway that leads to my ranch: "No services next 95 miles"

Now that's the kind of government I'm glad to pay for.

Seriously though, I tend to categorize Americans as either Urban America or Heartland America no matter where they reside. I know which group I'm betting on.

 

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:10 | 5338975 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I'm more worried about Obozo ruining what's left of America before he turns the reins over to the next douchbag.....

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:06 | 5338985 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"An un-contained Ebola pandemic with a 70% mortality rate warrants worry."

Obama and Libtards will continue to leave borders open until they get Ebola themselves and other countries close off the borders with the US.

You have more than 3,000 possibly infected military people coming back from West Africa to increase the numbers.

Unless Obama and his party are trying to purposely destroy the US it doesn't make any sense.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:19 | 5339081 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

There aren't enough poor people in the United States, that is why the border is open.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:23 | 5339740 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Hey, yogi - duh - the liar in chief has been doing just that since 2008. Democraps losing in the polls so let a potential epidemic loose just before the elections. The democraps learned this from hurricane Sandy.  And how about their latest attack liar ad blaming Republicants for "eboly".  Unbelievable how nasty & divisive democraps can be for the sake of retaining power. Jeez.

 

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:06 | 5338988 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

let us look at the facts: .gov does not want to stop africans flying here, but does want to limit americans flying, and yet when a person with a fever and history of recent contact with an ebola patient asks to fly inter state, the cdc   which knows who she is and is tracking her -gives her the ok  to fly?

they send ebola pts to new orleans, nebraska,dallas,now ohio- like they are trying to spread this agent. not contain it. the people who have the power to make all this happen are not stupid ..the why of this is too evil and diabolical for most here reading this to accept.

this can only be a plan in action. good luck to those who have faith in the basic goodness of man.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:19 | 5339076 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

the ones calling the shots are not humans, therer are like satanic lucifierain reptialians

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:34 | 5339158 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Not to mention the fact they don't know what the hell they're doing:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-second-ebola-patient-20141015-story.html#page=1

 

A "US Health Official" cleared the second Ebola patient to board a plane while she was febrile????!!!!

 

 

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:55 | 5339632 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

They don't even know their own procedures.

Did they even ask the hospital how they disposed of the body before they blamed everbody in Dallas but then told the other gal she could "move about the country"?

I don't know how that CDC guy can live with himself right now.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:41 | 5339766 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

U can bet ur azz that gummint bureaucrat still has his/her job which has better benefits, vacation, suck leave, health insurance & retirement than the vast majority of hard working private sector  tax paying U.S. citizen serfs & peasants .

 

Gummint: ctrl-alt-del

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:41 | 5339224 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

Either...

Ebola is real, which means that it has been brought here intentionally with the aim of destroying America. If this is true, then the architects are, in fact, satanic reptilian dirtbags.

Or...

Ebola is a hoax, and as such the aim is to SandyHook* America, with the aim of destroying this nation. If this is true, the architects are, in fact, satanic reptilian dirtbags.

*Sandyhook - verb- to hoodwink or fool someone with criminal intent.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:35 | 5339547 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

 "good luck to those who have faith in the basic goodness of man."

Hard to apply Hanlon's razor to someone with a MD, a MPH, and sub-specialty training in infectious disease.  Especially when they're buddies with Bloomberg and Gates.  You know he's also acting director of the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, which is supposed to "serve the public through responsive public health actions to promote healthy and safe environments and prevent harmful exposures." Like, perhaps dissuade a hospital from packing ebola-laden medical waste from floor to ceiling.  He sure is telegenic though, Amerikans put a lot of faith in that.

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:14 | 5339035 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

First step of cure: Tell the truth.
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1223928

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:15 | 5339048 Nue
Nue's picture

The West is at fault for this Outbreak and for its length. We in or Infinite or more accurately Infantile Wisdom have spent the last 20 years in Africa improving roads and other infrastructure the result is instead of Ebola breaking out and burning out in some isolated village with a few dozen deaths. The Isolated Villagers can now hop on a bus and be in a major population center within a few hours then once it starts to spread in the city people begin fleeing taking it with them elsewhere.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:58 | 5339836 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

I had no idea that China could be classified as being part of the West.

Remind me again: Who has been investing heavily in Africa, particularly in infrastructure projects?

People should avoid cramming round facts into the square pegs of their biases.

 

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 05:52 | 5340090 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

20 years ago (1994) China wasn't investing much in West Africa.

To this day no one has invested in infrastructure connecting Guéckédou to Conakry, Monrovia or Freetown (Infrastructure investment is concentrated within cities, or connecting cities, hillbillies be damned.)

Apportioning blame for something as large and complex as development is impractical, but as long we're all doing it- I might as well throw in my two cents...

1) Japanese and Korean SUV manufacturers and the European (and more recently Middle Eastern) re-export dealers exporters, who have provided Africans the means to more easily get from the back woods to the growing cities on those unpaved roads.

2) Western Airlines who have provided everyone with the means to get from the growing African cities to the rest of the world (and vice versa).

3) Consumers worldwide. Who create demand for raw materials from Africa, because they can't be satisfied or bothered with local sourcing and want everything they could possibly desire to be available for quick exchange with their worthless fiat at the Oligarchy's local big box shopfront.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 06:19 | 5340220 effendi
effendi's picture

Those roads would have been upgraded with or without the West. China has made major inroads into Africa and is installing the infrastructure necessary to extract mineral and other resources.

At some stage an employee of a Chinese corporation will finish his time in Africa and return to China with the bug in his system. He will visit his relatives in some Chinese provence and catch the packed trains to move about. That could effect dozens of passengers going to many different cities and then all hell will break loose. They will have to quarantene the Iphone factory and that will cause the collapse of Western Society.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:18 | 5339058 graspAU
graspAU's picture

Great published study on:

Lethal experimental infections of rhesus monkeys by aerosolized Ebola virus

At web site: US National Library of Medicine - National Institutes of Health
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997182/

Where: Infectious material and animals were handled within the
maximum containment (biological safety level 4) facilities
at the United States Army Medical Research Institute
of Infectious Diseases, Frederick, MD.

When: Published May 1995

Full 10 page pdf at this link, worth the read: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997182/pdf/ijexpath00004-00...

Does seem to suggest that it has the chance to be more contagious during cold months with less humidity, just like flu season:

"...We also demonstrated aerosol transmission of
Ebola virus at lower temperature and humidity than that
normally present in sub-Saharan Africa. Ebola virus
sensitivity to the high temperatures and humidity in
the thatched, mud, and wattel huts shared by infected
family members in southern Sudan and northern Zaire
may have been a factor limiting aerosol transmission of
Ebola virus in the African epidemics. Both elevated
temperature and relative humidity (RH) have been
shown to reduce the aerosol stability of viruses
(Songer 1967). Our experiments were conducted at
24 degrees C and < 40% RH, conditions which are known to
favour the aerosol stability of at least two other African
haemorrhagic fever viruses, Rift Valley fever and Lassa
(Stephenson et a/. 1984; Anderson et a/. 1991). If the
same holds true for filoviruses, aerosol transmission is
a greater threat in modern hospital or laboratory
settings than it is in the natural climatic ranges of
viruses. The route of infection or the degree of pulmonary
involvement of the primary cases may also be
an important factor to consider when evaluating the
natural aerosol transmissibility of the filoviruses..."

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 04:24 | 5340096 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Ebola is very temperature sensitive and West/Central Africa is actually not an ideal environment for ebola to thrive (temperature wise - since it loves cold temperatures).

If ebola makes it to the permafrost (regardless of whether it's Alaska, Cannuckville, Scandanavia, or Siberia - they'll never get rid of it.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 12:26 | 5341925 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

1.  Great reference. Thanks!

2. You do NOT need the Gov or an advanced degree in Medicine or Epidemiology to figure this out.  You do NOT need the classic "Third Party Reference" to figure out some things -- including the spread of contagious diseases.  Rather, you start from Basic Principles in Physics, Chemistry and Biology.  Assuming you have a quality degree in the Natural Sciences and you like to apply them in your daily life, that is.

As I've blogged on ZH for some months now...

A. The 1st clue about its potential geographic extent is revealed in the fact that Ebola dies at 40 C (39F).  This is bullish for the northern Sub-zero and Snow-belt, but bearish for Sun- and Tropical-Belt.

B The Laws of Thermodynamics tell us the AIR IS A FLUID.   As long as there are airborne things (dust, pollen, atomized water droplets, etc, etc), for the Virus to cling to, it gets a FREE RIDE, and will then cling to whatever surface it can.  After that, it's only a matter of time before the Laws of Statistics take over in their methods and modes of propagation.  No voodoo, no Religion -- just math, science and human nature at work.  All of these laws (of Nature and Human Nature) are time and space invariant -- and are thus perfectly predictable.

Plan and Act accordingly.

QED.  Sheesh!

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:17 | 5339062 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

I'm worried that people are going to believe this nonsense and not resist the additional insanity and oppression of government.

An American, not US subject.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:59 | 5339653 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Where do we go once we become "US subjects" though?

I mean..seriously...martial law is martial law.

Love your freedom loving ethos of course. But this country has had a long history of dealing with outbreaks. Interestingly...martial law was never an option "back in the day."

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 03:18 | 5340045 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Freedom is an attitude, a belief; That then becomes a demand.

One must desire to be free and then demand to be free.

Otherwise, one is nothing more than a draft animal on their farm. Living between the barn and the fences. Everyday having one's labor and wealth stolen, and waiting for the inevitable day that they are slaughtered.

Freedom is enshrined in the Constitution of the American country, the law of the land. Freedom is the law. Anything less is criminal on their part, and yours.

Demand your freedom. Do as the American people did at the Bundy ranch. Take up your freedom and shake it in the faces of the criminals that conspire to steal it from you. Say "NO," you may not have it, and "YES," you criminals must go.

Be free and alive, or enslaved and dead.

An American, not US subject

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:17 | 5339068 One Eyed Jack
One Eyed Jack's picture

WW1 and Spanish flu killed approximately 5% of world population.

WW2 killed approximately 3-4% of world population.

Perhaps this is another of these world culling events, by nature or design.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:20 | 5339084 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

man good never top nature

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:28 | 5339124 Reaper
Reaper's picture

Most information about ebola comes from government employees. What is truth from government employees? The virus mutates is their CYA excuse for error. Information is not truth. What is known is Obama and the CDC have lied. There are no scientific experiment results of how the virus is transmitted. It's the Law of the Jungle: trust no one; avoid contact/confrontations with hazards; get what you need to survive at the least possible risk.

Trust in government information is for the gullible. Let others discover what works and doesn't. Survival of the most intelligent who quickly learned to adapt.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:29 | 5339125 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

"unlike others throughout history, is lasting a very long time"

LOL, seriously?

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:30 | 5339132 Platypus
Platypus's picture

LOL !! Tyler Durden the "doctor" posting stuff that he copied from Wikipedia. Is ZH under  the stupid karl Denninger supervision lately?? You guys are definitely talking trash as he does. And just think that for sometime in the past I used to take ZH seriously.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:35 | 5339173 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Ebola stories are proof-positive that ZH is part of the media conspiracy to assist the government in allowing space aliens to to use humans as food.

"To Serve Man:" it's a COOKBOOK!

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:29 | 5339137 blackbeardz
blackbeardz's picture

FEAR is EBOLA

CDC is as corrupt as WHO or any UN agency, corrupt from the top. Blackmail and corruption rules this world, trust your gov't and drown in your own blood. The time is coming to settle all accounts and tell your loved ones that the future is dark. 911 never opened enough eyes and this is the result. Get in line for your forced inoculation or get in camp. Hide and you will be a fugitive. Drones will take care of the militias. This is your gov't.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 00:03 | 5339666 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Fear is phi king up your response to Ebola. By like say...bringing it into the USA or other country to begin with.

Being afraid of something does not make one a coward. Courage is having the fear and still acting. Ignoring danger itself is the dumbest thing you can be.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 03:16 | 5340039 Rememberweimar
Rememberweimar's picture

Our government is purely criminal. What do you expect from criminals?

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 12:41 | 5342050 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Allow me to re-post the blog from a fellow ZHer...

[ Wed, 10/15/2014 - 14:36 | 5335932 new SWRichmond   

Possible scenarios using Ebola fear mongering:
    1) Crash market and bankers steal more money.
    2) Escalate Syrian war.
    3) Pass laws to clamp down internet.
    4) Elect a traitor, globalist puppet as president of USSA.

They're doing all those things ANYWAY.

May you live in interesting times.  These times are epochal. ] -End of re-post

I might add... (5) US seeks to get/keep China out of Resource-rich parts of Africa (Oil, Gas, Gold, Food), and make it a Zero-Sum geographic game between them.  Which is something I had posted a long time ago, when ZH showed the extent of Chinese activities in Africa.  Despite multiple comments/requests from Your Truly, I have yet to see TD/ZH posting an article that shows the impact of Ebola on US and Chinese holdings & interests in Central Africa. 

Q:  How are Obama's 3,000 troops doing, in keeping the Oil flowing in Liberia -- a large oil supplier to the US and thus a large Petrodollar creator?  Ebola + Oil + Petrodollars + Geopolitics = It's all interconnected web in a Complex System, with Intended and Unintended Consequences. 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:31 | 5339154 BliptoP3
BliptoP3's picture

Arrrghhhhhhhhhh Our schools f*ck'n suck

"As of Oct 10 2014, the latest outbreak had afflicted 8,376 and killed 4,024 -- a mortality rate of 48%."

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, Wrong - since you don't know how many of the currently afflicted will eventually die - this is not the current mortality rate, since the disease rate is geometric and a majority of the cases are new, this is *very* wrong.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 02:13 | 5339974 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Thank you! I was just about to start writing the same thing.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:34 | 5339176 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

I am very worried, most about my constitutional rights.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:46 | 5339251 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Bunga.

Best comment in the lot. You Americans better get "RATIONAL" and think.

Thx.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:34 | 5339177 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

The only thing we have to fear (besides dying in an isolation ward in a puddle of your own sweat, mucous, and bloody shit) is fear itself. See, it's not so bad.......

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:39 | 5339198 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Good article. i beensaying, the economic and personal impacts are huge with Ebola type contagions.  

 

Contacts and contagion networking and webbing through society are enormous. Total cost to track down and quarantine/treat each contact is enormous. Stoppage of activity is enormous. Look what happened to Liberia and Sierra Leone in just a couple of months (from where they were before).

 

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:16 | 5339202 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

That is what I have been thinking too: "our society's responses to a viral outbreak could prove to be at least as disruptive and damaging as the virus itself."

I think one has to put everything into the perspective that the people who covertly control the world LIKE MASS MURDERS. For example, 9/11/2001 was an inside job, false flag attack, which did mass murders as a deliberate investment that would pay back in more mass murders in the future.

See my previous comments on this topic here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-04/thousands-sign-petition-ban-flights-ebola-countries-two-removed-newark-airplane-hamz

Thousands Sign Petition To Ban Flights From Ebola Countries ...

and here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-13/cidrap-we-believe-there-scientific-evidence-ebola-has-potential-be-airborne

CIDRAP: "We Believe There Is Scientific Evidence Ebola Has The Potential To Be Airborne"

etc. etc. etc.

Civilization is controlled by lies backed by violence, through social systems whereby the rulers specialize in being dishonest and violent, while those they rule over adapt to that by becoming ignorant and afraid. All natural threats are compounded and complicated by the ways that social pyramid systems operate through backing up lies with violence. None of the threats compare to the dangers of some people to other people. The Ebola Epidemic is merely one more, potentially serious threat, that emerges inside of a chronic situation where civilization is criminally insane, in ways which are automatically getting worse, faster.

There are NO genuine solutions to the problems that society is controlled by deeply entrenched systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, where those enforced frauds are automatically spinning out of control. There is NO chance of any reasonable political debates about any important public issues, since everything is already based on systems of lies backed by violence, which are already criminally insane, and spinning out of control. It has always been that epidemic plagues were the first on the list of potential mega-disasters, especially since those could be covertly bioweaponized. Since basic human ecology is dominated by murder systems which operated through the maximum possible deceits, which backed up the monetary systems based on the maximum possible frauds, it was always that case that our Profit From Disease systems were criminally insane medical practice inside of the overall context of a runaway criminally insane civilization.

If not the Ebola Epidemic, then the next one, or the next one ... There are no genuine solutions to chronic political problems without better death controls at their core. However, the established systems were due to thousands of years of the history of successful warfare based on backing up deceits with destruction, which then became the foundation for enforcing frauds through the political economy. In that situation, not only is it practically impossible for there to be any sane public responses to the threats of epidemic diseases, instead, it is more probable that the most criminally insane covertly ruling classes are deliberately working towards provoking those kinds of mass murders, because they LIKE IT!

Given that it is politically impossible to have any rational debates about human ecology and political economy, since the established systems are based on a long history of triumphant deceits and frauds, we can do nothing but have to muddle through the madness of that situation. Human civilization is a social pyramid system whose structure which has become way too "successful" at operating systems of lies backed by violence, which have their two matching social groups, which have matching criminal insanities. The rulers and those they rule over combine to make and maintain the most criminally insane human ecology there could possibly be.

That is the context in which we are necessarily headed towards times of Peak Insanities, along with the trends towards Peak Everything Else. ... If it is not this Ebola Epidemic, then it could still be the next one, or the next one, which all have the opportunity to develop due to the basic human ecology system having been operated in criminally insane ways, too much, for too long, in order to develop the conditions which would enable an epidemic to spin out of control and cause Death Insanities!

Since our human ecology and political economy are based on the maximum possible deceits and frauds, those enable the development of circumstances which are favourable to epidemic diseases, especially possibly bioweaponized ones, to spin out of control. Since it is practically impossible to develop any better forms of human ecology and political economy, which are not based on runaway criminally insane systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, we have no reasonable chances of not continuing to prepare the conditions which are favourable for epidemics to spin out of control.

OF COURSE, THE SOCIAL RESPONSES TO THOSE EPIDEMICS COULD BECOME WORSE THAN THE DISEASES THEMSELVES, BECAUSE THAT SOCIETY IS CRIMINALLY INSANE, DUE ITS SOCIAL "SUCCESSES" HAVING BEEN BUILT ON THE FOUNDATION OF BACKING UP LIES WITH VIOLENCE!

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 23:28 | 5339508 Protokletos
Protokletos's picture

Just prepping for your Thanksgiving dinner conversation next month?  Your parents are gonna love it, Radical Marijuana.  

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 02:44 | 5339990 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

My parents are dead, Protokletos, as usually is the case when one gets older. Anyway, I no longer celebrate any traditional holidays, since none of them mean anything to me anymore. Most of the people I regularly talk to have even more dismal opinions than mine, and held them longer, before I did. Believe it or not, I used to be a relatively optimistic and idealistic fellow, and I still do my best to hold on to irrational hope, rather than have no hope at all.

However, being forced to face the facts regarding events like 9/11, and understanding how those facts fit into the bigger picture, has driven me to conclude that there is no reasonable doubt that the world is CRIMINALLY INSANE! After realizing that the ruling classes were able to succeed with the 9/11 events, as well as pull off the financial crises in 2008, quite successfully, ending up even more wealthy and powerful afterwards, has driven me to these sorts of conclusions, as the most probable interpretation:

Question the disease diagnosis: bioweapons? 

Politics via biological weapon false flag attacks?

There are reasonable grounds for tracing this Ebola Epidemic back to biological warfare facilities operating in Africa. Even if that were not the case, the levels of all around crazy incompetence in responding to this epidemic are too consistent not to suspect that is being orchestrated.

Anyone who studies the mass media thoroughly recognizes that they get their talking points from the same sources at the same time these days. Since the worst problem that human beings face is that they are living in a civilization controlled by Huge Lies, their worst enemy is the mass media, which are the biggest group of professional liars and hypocrites.

... Meanwhile, I find that the majority of the comments posted under a more recent article CDC AUTHORIZED EBOLA AIRLINE FLIGHT also agreed with my views, as I stated above.

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:42 | 5339226 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Would I be wrong to mention that people in the US are much more mobile and come into contact with MANY more people daily than an average Liberian? How does that factor in to you 'I'm not concerned about it' scenario?

Wed, 10/15/2014 - 22:41 | 5339230 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Exclusive video of the Prezs Ebola swat team in action!
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Atks5rRqQkg

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!