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Liquidation-nado: Stocks Crash-And-Thrash As Bonds Pump-And-Dump
The headlines... (from the most extreme levels)
- VIX over 31 (highest since Dec 2011)
- Dow Industrials -4% Year-to-date (nears correction, -8.6% from highs)
- Nasdaq -10.5% from highs (correction, -1% Year-to-date)
- Dow Transports -11.6% from highs (correction)
- Russell 2000 -14.4% from highs (correction, -9.6% Year-to-date)
- S&P -1.5% Year-to-date (nears correction, -9.8% from highs)
- S&P 500 futures volume highest in 3 years
- High-Yield Credit +20bps to 417bps (13 month wides)
- Treasury yields down 16-18bps (multi-year low yields and multi-year high sized moves)
- Gold at one-month high
- WTI Crude hits $80.01 (lowest since June 2012)
And then - thanks to massive HFT order/cancels, squeeze of 'shorts' as long-short funds liquidated, and a well-placed random headline proclaiming Yellen confident - we ripped back green as if none of it ever mattered... (ignoring WMT guiding notably lower and Putin's nuclear sabre rattling)
BUT... thanks to missed earnings and guidance, all the major indices dropped 1% after hours...
* * *
Today, summarized in pictures
* * *
CNN's Fear & Greed index is buried at 0...desparate to go negative
* * *
Year-to-date, bonds remain the massive winners +22%, Gold +3%, and S&P -1.2%...
Bond yields utterly collapsed today... then screamed back higher...
For a sense of just how massive today's move was in bonds...
10Y inflation breakevens collapsed to fresh 3-year lows...
But is the stock market that opened most eyes today....
Year-to-Date, it's starting to get ugly...
On the week, intraday volatility is incredible...
And today...
Even with the afternoon meltup, Financials lagged...
VIX spiked above 31... before bouncing back
Stocks were driven by AUDJPY most of the day (recovering to VWAP thanks to the stability of USDJPY around the 106 the figure level)
JPY strength characterized the day and week but EUR strength also weighhed on the USD...
Gold was higher on the day - at one-month highs, Silver recovered early losses, copper tumbled and Oil fell further but not catastrophically...
Algos were extremely active with some major manipulation at the lows in the Russell.. As Nanex notes, intense order place/canceling made the lows in the Russell futures
Wondering what drove the recovery in the afternoon? It appears hedge funds are force-liquidating everything to free up margin - so "most shorted" got squeezed again.
Charts: Bloomberg and @Not_Jim_Cramer and @Nanexllc
Bonus Chart: Some context on the 'bounce' in Shale stocks...
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There will be no mercy.
Sacrificial lambs will be slaughtered hysterically.
Blood, blood, blood will flow everywhere
a "0" on fear
is that "FREAK FLAG LEVEL"
or did they burn that flag, too!
The PPT really were magnificent this afternoon. That was quite a save. Were margin calls suspended for the day?
Normally a resurrection like that takes 3 days to pull off
Just BTFD and prepare yourself for the ascent into heaven...
Crashing, thrashing, pumping, dumping.
Tyler has a second career as a rapper.
It’s amazing what you can do when you have unlimited electrons that represents limitless phony money, isn’t it?
Glad to see the deer in headlights is back!
"Hysterically" as in "laughing my balls off with a chainsaw in my hand"?
The dials buried in the red captain, she cannae take nae more!
Don't sweat, the retaining pin on the phearometer will snap soon, allowing it to arc around the bottom and back to green. Great time to pick up some cheap NFLX.
See below and "in what currency will they be selling in?"
Nasdaq is going to get annihilated tomorrow...which will have a Sudden Impact on the S&P. QE isn't going to help at this. We've moved from Roller Coaster to Whirlygig as an epic "Ebola Scare" annihilates entire industries.
It's a good time for Russia and China to sell them US treasuries.
They would go bidless!
Okay, the Fed would buy them...
Holy Shit...what-a-day... Got algos?
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire!
Burn mother fucker burn.
I see you're channelling Cheeky Bastard again...
Three Fed officials speaking tomorrow: Plosser_Kocherlakota_ and Bullard. All spaced throughout the day.
Spaced on what ? I couldn't help it.
According to ThunderChief (above comment), it's "roofies!" :>D
Bought vix at close. No significant pomo until Monday.
Don't like the 10Y inflation break-evens. That I'm willing to take seriously. for instance; the actual performance of gold and silver has been very good lately; although, significant rallies aren't allowed; the prices have extablished bottoms; in my opinon. This Chart ref. to above, says; good idea to buy some Silver. There are people in the world who know a lot more about it than I ever will; and charts like this tell us what their opinion is. Also, they tend to people, entities, that have enough money to actually make a difference.
and they say The markets arent rigged!
The afternoon ramp would be laughable if it wasn't so sickening.
Was an EZ wave to ride trucker - holding my nose the whole, of course. What a joke indeed, but i gotta ride it despite the nonsense.
Was an EZ wave to ride trucker - holding my nose the whole way, of course. What a joke indeed, but i gotta ride it despite the nonsense.
who says that?
not this person
Good movie, lots of popcorn, didn't especially like the ending.
Margin calls never happened as earlier prognosticated.
Yup, fun day but let's remember---the S&P is off only about 8% from peak. Big effing deal.
I'm not selling the bulk of my Treasuries until the S&P is "off" by more than 40%.
Sorry repost… but it’s Funny… for those who missed it;
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10154636606720713
Funny stuff.
LOL funny.
"And now anyone who slept with the bride."
NFLX just lost its lunch...BARF
A lot is dropping after hours. NFLX 3pm central time $448.45....right now 346.45 lol
holy bejeezus!
NFLX is not BTC!
Hah Dow Futures already down over 200.
16041 for DOW futures and 16141 for Dow finishing. The future value has been static since before the closing of the DOW! How can that be?
Wait - you mean some folks get to trade stocks after the market is closed? That doesn't seem fair......
I'm going to write my Congressman and complain.
It was a good day.
No helicopter lookin' for a murder, two in the morning got the fat burger...
Fraud. After closing many million shares kept piling up on volume, but DOW stuck at -1.06, it didn't move at all.
there is something going on.
Get to work Yellen, it's time for QE5.
Today had such promise. What a bummer.
There's always tomorrow.
Just thinking about....
(sorry - had to).
only 250 Million of POMO tomorrow. Squid earnings as well
PM, UNH, GS, DHR, BAX, DAL, BBT, PPG, BHI, TSM, BX, GWW report.....
You can bet your bottom dollar that the sun will come out tomorrow - isn't that considered GLOBAL WARMING. Ban the Sun or tax us because its' rays touch our skin.
You can bet your bottom dollar that the sun will come out tomorrow - isn't that considered GLOBAL WARMING. Ban the Sun or tax us because its' rays touch our skin.
blank
So anyone know how many billions the FED shit into the 'market' to forestall collaspe this afternoon?
what? billions?
i think its trillions...
Plummeting Dow was expected here...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-plunges-...
Last weekend's update:
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...
..yeah..elliot wave gets it right occassionally, but if trading and timing by it- you get hooked and bled more than not....
TA in general just doesn't work as well on shorter timeframes because the markets have gone "mission critical." Lesson from 2008 learned the hard way.
Where is the golden Hindu? I love that guy.
I like him too, but I like the Golden Buddha moar.
Mortgage rates gettin moar sweeeet ... too bad the gazillion peeps without cash can't qualify
Told you they was gonna ramp it........ Dimes to donuts the fed unload some inventory today to spur the rally.... I think they will defend 2 percent pretty fiercely. The only thing that didnt hang is the dollar should have strengthened after 2:21, and it didnt.....
ya know it's funny...i've been reading this site for several years now and really haven't bothered to post until now...thought I'd share my findings.....I've never seen a more negative, non-wishful thinking group of traders/investors who have been completely wrong on the direction and duration of large macro events....it's truly amazing how wrong so many have been on zh.....if I had put 100k into fading the sentiment of this site, I'm sure I'd have a substantial multiple of that 100k...it's almost like as much as everyone who posts on zh kicks Gartman around (who deserves it admitedly since he speaks in such "certainties") is almost as bad or perhaps worse as their own calls for crash this, dump time that etc...have habitually been wrong!......yeah, but maybe this time is different and all the perma-bears on zh will be right...?....
ha ha, if you are one step ahead of the crowd, you are a genius, if you are two steps ahead, a crackpot.
If you believe this market to be real, I think you are three steps behind.
No. By the time "perma-bears" are right it will be off the cliff and it won't matter.
Yep, I think by the time permabears are 'right', what you'll need most is a good AR 15 and a good stock of ammo.
it's site about the true world, not about how to make papper money...
Took the words out of my mouth. Aside from some basic options straddles, I wouldn't trade on this sites perspective.
LOLZ I would expect from the tone and nature of your post you ass got burned pretty badly today!!
What, were you long netflix and oil??
ASS
no equities outright...gamma, theta index futures options with long overlays against tail events...meaning short weeklies, long back months on options..days like today hurt some but not much....and yes down, but .8 % less than 1%....which i consider a victory considering the intra-day ranges....and thanks the for ASS comment..amusing...
Ok, so you bad-mouth ZH but yet do the safe trades with alot of protection?
LOLZ!!
what i'm saying peak...is that look at the posts...no trashing zh, but the posters as they are always trashing gartman every five minutes when tons of zh posters aren't any better than that dudes calls...(i dislike him for other reasons)......the permabear thing hasn't worked and won't work long term..there is no alt to equities that pays, so stocks will probably be higher in 10 years then where they are today........ safe trades in options necessitate protection, otherwise an option short for theta isn't safe..just like a long short stock play or long put against long underlying etc....
Wasn't gonna, but now I'm just tired of your sanctimonious horseshit. WTFRU? That you can claim some self righteous attitude about markets. That you have this keenly honed sense of morality in the pits. That you are good and ZH negative Debbie downers. WTFRU?
Back in the day....before it was even tinfoil to think PPT - now mainstream, markets functioned with some shred of free market credibility. Hedgers hedged and the balls out short sellers were revered - the true price discoverers in the trenches diving to find value in a market and convey information to the rest of us where that value might be.
And we have watched for 5 years now the fucking FED and the primary dealers hand those same value hunters their asses not because they know better (God knows that ain't it), but because they could make a shit pile of money with money that isn't theirs (it's fucking yours and mine) - by persistently squeezing our value hunters and getting away with it - because they fucking can.........THATS WHAT ZH IS ABOUT.........a flat out rejection to the governments and the FEDs rejection of free and unfettered markets.
It's not a level playing field!
Debt accumulation currency debasement and Keynesian monetarism......the insane hunt for 6 and 5 on the Philips curve (now it's 2 and 6).......and a fucking ZIRP that is eviscerating the middle class - how much more retarded does it have to get for you oh wise one before you recognize the economic insanity of zero interest rate policies?
I don't give a fuck about the ZH crash and burn screamers, gold bug 2500 er's and all the other seemingly nonsensical ZHers you got a problem with. And the reason is because any one of them could be my neighbor going through the same bullshit I am....just trying to eek out a fucking living in a world that is increasingly making less and less sense by the day.
I disagree with many of them but respect them for why they are here. Not sure I am able to say the same for you.
so you are a trader--and wishful is in your lexicon-good luck and best wishes
missed it completely jamo...quizas yo debo explicar en espanol.....di me?
I kind of agree.
There are some bulls here. But it's because they know the fed is in a coffin corner.
The sad thing is whether you're a bull or bear, the bet never pays off. You never get to cash it out when it matters.
You might as well not trade and play craps.
"You might as well not trade and play craps."
That's why Obumbles has been trying to kill off Vegas since he got into office.
Bullish on fucked up behavior of "money" and "markets" - whatever direction it swings as the world economy as we know it implodes. Right now, dollar is king and equities is the only game in the casino.
Bearish on humanity in general. EROEI is a motherfucker.
Long whatever it takes.
ZH at minimum hopefully is an early warning system for the waves of the shit storm as they roll over (and the eye of it, when [not if] it hits).
non-wishful---you my friend are a dope
Listen.
I do believe that we should strive to "GET ALONG" here instead of creating financial hostilities amongst each other.
Please now.
Terrorists boarded a flight out of London . One
took a window seat and the other sat next to him in the middle seat.
Just before take-off, a Royal Marine sat down in the aisle seat.
After take-off the Marine kicked his shoes off, wiggled his toes and was settling in
when the Arab in the window seat said 'I need to get up and get a Coke.'
'Don't get up,' said the Marine 'I'm in the aisle seat, I'll get it for you.'
As soon as he left one of the Arabs picked up the Marine's shoe and spat in it.
When the Marine returned with the Coke, the other Arab said,
'That looks good. I'd really like one too.'
Again, the Marine obligingly went to fetch it.
While he was gone the other Arab picked up the
Marine's other shoe and spat in it.
When the Marine returned they all sat back and enjoyed the flight.
As the plane was landing the Marine slipped his feet into his shoes and knew
immediately what had happened. He leaned over and asked his
Arab neighbours, 'Why does it have to be this way?'
'How long must this go on? This fighting between our nations?
This hatred? This animosity? This spitting in shoes and pissing in Cokes?
Listen.
Terrorists, is that all you bloody gov trolls can think about?
LISTEN
how you doing, banger?
:)
Listen.
Glad to see that you got that Lithium prescription filled. You'll be feeling much better quite soon.
-1
you need better material!
and you speak to me like that...
after all the help i tried to give...
such a ungrateful wannebe troll...
now we'll ignore you....and its back to chasing cobras for you
see ya!
:)
Before the Fed Ponzi Scheme of QE kicked in, in a big way (for argument's sake, lets say pre-2007), a non-manipulated market would have tanked on any of these:
Bombing Bagdad
Internet Footage of Beheadings
Crimea
Ukraine
Civilian Airliner shot down over a warzone
Negative GDP
For the last 6 years we have lived in a world where none of these things no longer matters. No matter how bad the news gets, the muppets take it as a buy signal because the Fed would simply start up another round of QE to save the markets from crashing. Building a house of cards with a print machine is a recipe for disaster.
amacintn - thanks for posting.
Many of us are not traders or investors anymore.
And don't get mired in the "permabear" or "large macro events" market terminology as they are indicators of how far down the rabbit hole you are.
I want the market to crash and the current financial system to utterly collapse because it is a lie, a corrupt Ponzi scheme, a representation of the loss of the rule-of-law, sound money, liberty, and decency.
Here are some names to contemplate: Corzine, Mozillo, Geithner, Paulson, Bernanke, AIG, Citi, BOA, WAMU, GM, Bear Sterns.
Corporations/Banks/Insurers bailed out at the expense of families - by individuals and government officials abjectly shirking their fiduciary and sworn duties and oaths.
Not one of them indicted, prosecuted, or in jail but living high on the hog defaming every working citizen in the most obscene display of concupiscent skullduggery and legerdemain in the nation's history.
The nation and society are becoming "Biff's World" from "Back to the Future II" and it makes many of us sad, then mad as hell.
..i get it ebworthen and agree with a lot of what you wrote......i guess my post was more about those that trash the capital markets and complain when they go up...you might not be in that crowd....it was a general observation....Don't get me started on Corzine and why that guy isn't in jail with his MF Global antics....
@amacintn:
How does it feel to "trade" a "market" propped up by robbing from millions of American kids who will be forced to pay for this money printing/QE/market manipulation with a reduced standard of living?
I hope you enjoy your profits. As long as you get yours - who cares about the next generation, right? How dare you call us negative. We are simply honest and responsible. Give it a try sometime. It might do you some good.
..meattrapper...i think you need to take a look at the majority of the posts on zh...they are incredibly negative....... maybe i didn't convey the message right..what i'm attempting to say is that there are many on zh that want the markets to tank simply to show everyone the jig is up..i get that and i could agree with that in many respects, but they aren't being true to themselves about asset prices and valuations...also, there are many on here that think that the broad market tanking will inflate their gold or silver holdings and they wont' happen....look to 2008 as an example when all assets tanked.......so if i make money on down markets I"m a jerk and not a jerk in up markets...or by that logic, if gold swings up to 2500 an ounce, that's responsible and not taking money from kids...?...i don't folllow the logic....
amacintn I do tend to agree with the negativity and feel just like EB. I too have made some darn good money since 2008. Just because the markets are no longer what some here define as normal (personally I think they have been this way alot longer then most here complain about). I actually think you would be a fool not to do your best and make as much money as you can with the run up since 2008. I am not a professional investor, but I have done well and was in equities and still own some stocks.
I do buy physical gold and have for over 30 years as a tangible asset. I have also bought and sold gold for some hefty profits for retirement. I have learned so much here. Honestly you are crazy in my mind not to try and make some money for yourself and family. I nor anyone here created this problem nor the markets we all invest in.
Here's the issue: I don't mind casinos because they are open in what they are selling. If somebody wants to go in and risk some hard-earned cash so be it. But the WHOLE financial system is a casino masquerading as a free-market entity. Ponzi schemes and fiat currency will by their very natures flame out as they run out of suckers to add to the game, or the unsuspecting to steal from.
So when you want to go out and try to make money for yourself by supporting and investing in fraud, go for it. But if you find my rooting against the house negative, so be it. The markets need to fail, because those in charge have abused the political and financial system to the point no return. And just like after every big fire, growth sprouts anew. I can't wait for the day when EVERYONE on this planet can truly compete within a free-market economy where central banks and fiat currencies are non-existent. And until that day, I will always celebrate when the greedy supporting the immoral get torched. Sorry but that's just the truth.
Sure the market can look great and people can be making a buck. The trouble is it is no longer a market, rather a rigged game and that is the rub. Everyone knows rigged games blow up eventually.
Margins calls on Friday?
If that happens, the Fed can't save it.
RUT was up 1 percent today. Thats a head scratcher....
Just updated my daily post-market pivot point worksheet for tomorrow, and today's Russell volatility has the spread between S3 and R3 for TNA the largest I've seen in a long while, ~ 49 - 66, which almost guarantees the algos playing pivot ping-pong will have a field day tomorrow. In some cases, even a quarter-pivot move dwarfs daily moves we saw on low-vol summer days. Spiky candles should continue to be the norm ...
Getting ready for BTFD. It's not real until someone actually defaults on something.
<--- Stocks Crash Thursday
<--- Stocks Rally Thursday
<--- Stocks Crash Friday
<--- Stocks Rally Friday
Congratulations to the plunge protection team! Who said government doesn't work?
The aren't 'government'....they are simply funded by government.....like all secret agencies.
The Federal Reserve is not (U.S.) government?
4:01 news release: SPY algos no longer consider VWAP important, pledge a renewed focus on fundamentals.
ZH's most annoying sponsor, PRU, is down 3%.
Let it slide.
PRU would be better off advertising on Cramer.
Why on Earth are people buying U.S. Treasuries, which are nothing more than future payments of dollars - considering Yellen is ready to kick the presses into overdrive?
I might be coining this one! Did anybody say Flood Watch??
I might be coining this one! Did anybody say Flood Watch??
I m not sure about what I m about to post,bear with me.its about officials not doing their jobs.recently a crowd gathered in CARDIFF,then much the same crowd moved to N.Y. And then to somewhere in Australia,then brazil.so please don't say they are not doing their jobs.
Those with paper assets paying attention to the shit show and ebola this week are increasingly bleeding confidence. They know full well that the exits will be locked when too many attempt escaping. But the house wins even when it all falls down. The PTB say don't worry as stocks continue to fall, and ebola continues to spread. It's all under control.
"The Ebola epidemic is starting to contaminate sentiment on Wall Street, which is already losing sleep over countless crises."
http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/15/investing/ebola-spooks-wall-street-inves...
“Economists and public health experts have learned much from recent epidemics…the indirect costs of public risk aversion can generate far more economic damage than the direct cost of healthcare outlays and other containment expenditures.”
http://www.westernjournalism.com/just-happened-nyc-shows-ebola-impact-vi...
"Drudge Report’s Matt Drudge Tweets Ominous Ebola Message"
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1021277-drudge-reports-matt-drudge-tweet...