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WTF Chart Of The Day: Treasury Trading Edition
Presented with little comment aside to say - WTF!!
The combined futures trades across the four major bond contracts... umm.
and here is the Eurodollar complex...
Source: Nanex @NanexLLC
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wonder who that was?
The only WTF was all those people short treasuries buying to cover. With half the treasury float owned by the Fed, supply is limited. Big treasury short squeeze coming... 10 yr going below 1 percent....
Eat it pundits and your rising interest rates.
Eventually, this fight is going to spill out into the street.
Don't worry, the police will be sure and safeguard the Wall St. bull statue, like they did when those dirty hippies came to town.
PPT, PPT, swipe your PPT...
That's where the taxpeyer money go
Brought to you by the same crooks who made the $365 billion UST’s which the Russians and Chinese sold off early this year magically show up in Belgium.
Someone has to lighten up on exposure, big time. My first thought was one of the hedgies, but even for them this is epic.
Anyone think AIG or Deutsche Bank are too smart to sell puts on oil? Bueller? Anyone?
Ballsy move to do that. Demand is dropping since the real economy can only be papered over for so long, but all it takes is the right kind of saber rattling or a scary ISIS or Russian 'saber rattling' headline to scare it back up in price again.
I think it would take a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran to get oil prices back up appreciably. These markets don't react to "standard" fundamentals anymore. It is all manipulated and then the narrative that they want you to believe is trotted out. All of this ISIS fear mongering has not lit a fire under oil and the drop in oil prices recently is driven more by a "punish Russia" manip than anything else.
I was present the day they put the Bronze Bull in Front of the NYSE.
I have the Handout, which was given out to us, by the Italian Sculpter
Arturo Di Modica.
That handout is worth more than Fiat.
Bill Gross hiccuped.
I have to agree, that is so nuts! The 10yr. at under 1%, that would be full blown panic I think. Would the 30 yr. hit 2.2% the inflation rate? Zero return on 30's wow!
Do you believe inflation will actually average 2.2% over the next 30 years?
The real question is, WHO WOULD? I don't think the best and brightest would make a bet 5 years out with the amount of printing in the last 10 years.
time for the obligatory 10yJGB ... updated close at .48
There has never been a better time,
to buy yield free risk.
With a quadrillion in derivatives worldwide and most of those interest rate derivatives, the operative motive is COLLATERAL. If you don't have the collateral then you will have to pay through the nose to get some even if it means negative rates on treasuries. No one is buying these for long term investments except the misinformed.
Look; you don't hold on to the thing for 5 years; that's just what it's called; you sell it again when you perceive something diferent that's more interesting. It's just a "port in a storm". Like a big savings account; but with no bank to go floppsie.
yea, just a Country to go...perhaps
Bside the point. you get your money back; there's no bank to fail. this is for rich people and their funds. it's a parking garage.
Zero nominal rate.
Real rates have been negative for years.
10 yr bund at 70 basis points.... its only a matter of time for the treasury.
"Panic" is always full-blown. the interesting question is how long does it last and is there follow through; or is this just a bump on the human emotional road map.
Well, t hey pretty much did eat it; in the last few days and especially today.
PIMCO?
Yes, my thought exactly!
Collapsing rates should help PIMPCO.
god knows they will need help.
NO.
Some body who needs good housing numbers, pimco, or both.
The shoe seems to be fitting the pimp nicely since this squeeze coincides with the timeline of when pimco started shorting before Mo quit.
It's not a who; in the sense of any identifiable entity. it's a lot of institutions and some individuals. In order to interpret it you have to look at the price chart also. The chart for ZB on CME.com shows an insane spike to the high side followed by a settling down; so it was "rotation". People dumped shorts and replaced them with longs. It's the old flight to safety meme again; or once again; or yet again. It's kind of standard practice.
Long bonds are safe? From what?
from bank failures; and or embarrassing questions if you have 10Mill. you need to stash for awhile.
tier 1 capital..... banks are going to need it and lots of it.
That too.
Bush's fault
There are regulatory requirements, and volk in the pension and insurance business who are glued to their seats. I get that. I just think going long bonds here is a damn fool thing to do with money, unless you have no other choice.
Look; they're completely liquid; okay? it 's a savings account. you can withdraw it whenever you think something more attractive comes along. that's it's function; a savings account.
For now anyway.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-16/fed-prepares-bond-fund-runs-loo...
I think people will be in for a big suprise if things get real bad.
and they can go into negative cash flow in a heart beat. That's what killed the S&L industry.
Maybe the least awful alternative, but still awful.
Liquidity is always an illusion.
Michael Milken
Does not every asset require a buyer to be liquid? What if there simply are no buyers? Is that an impossible scenario?
Pretty soon the hedgies will have to start liquidating PMs to meet their margin calls.
But their influence may be overwhelmed by more serious people who are willing buyers. this remains to be seen. I don't expect any particular new low prices in Metals.
WTF
Belgium! *spoken in a Seinfeld 'Newman' sort of way*
Whack The Foreskin
The whole market had a WTF day today.
It's more like WhyTF did it take so long?!!!
boyz had to wait for the ebola cover ... implying legitimate worry as opposed to a good old fashioned sheeps fleecing.
No matter how cynical I get,
it's never enough.
How about, I got out in December in anticipation of this? Can't say what I got into yet but it hasn't lost value, yet. Feel the cynicism. Be the cynicism. Use the cynicism.
It's Halloween
looks like someone(s) got the message
haunted house with ghost -
Get Out! ..... of the stock market
Nope, not manipulated at all...but perfectly, clear, transparent, and above board.
http://olduvai.ca
Wow. What the hell does that mean? How does one even interpret that??????
It means What The Fuck ;)
It means the signal to noise ratio has been pegged on zero.
I don't mean this personally; and i'm not trying to start a fight; but if you think about it, the volume spike is all signal and no noise. It's a loud and clear statement.
It's global warming!
I would be kind as say you are wasting space, but, plain stupid will do!
It's global climate change!
Assad has go to go!
I'm root'in against Putin!
Granola not Ebola!
There is no crisis without ISIS!
Gold isn't good. Gold is bad. Gold is the worst thing you'll ever have.
I'd say that was Putin.
That would match several comments of the past few days. Interesting thought. If they don't sell it all it would hurt the remaining holdings though?
No; the net price was up today; this is a chart of volume; the price chart shows an up spike and return to a lower sane but high on the day finish. it was shorts buying out; and a lot of them, rotating and buying in long.
NO; net-net on the day the buyers bid the price of the paper up.
Putin fat finger, haha.
in case anyone interested ... more "good" news out today ... delinquencies jumped
every month The Administration does a housing scorecard (by HUD)
latest (august)
deliquencies
Prime 2.9% ... july 2.8%
Subprime 31.0% ... july 30.0%
FHA 10.4% ... july 9.7%
http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=sept14scorecard.pdf
Those charts are surreal. Redistribution of wealth is the only promise kept in 6 years.
And Two Hearted Ale is my favorite beer.
I'm waffled!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-c4XnlVlqU&t=24s
MBSs saw a 75 basis point top then down to 6 basis points and settled to just a 19 Basis points better at close.
¿Qué
In the 1930s, if you had money in the bank and it went bankrupt, you lost your money. Today, if you have money in the bank and it goes under, you may get a haircut. Better to get a negative return on Treasurys. See, it's different this time.
So you don't think they would re-institute the ALL FUNDS phrase again?
In 30's you lost your money if the bank went under. These days you loose other people's money.
Exactly; it's a flight to quality. a parkig garage in a storm. with no bank involved.
In the 30s that's why regular citizens in the street were out to stop the bank robbers instead of standing by looking stupid. It was THEIR money being stolen! They joined the posse to track the bastards down. Imagine today if folks own money was at stake in a bank heist. Good thing we got people who will carry a weapon.
Maybe one of the multitude of obese government workers fat fingered something
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-14/tuesday-humor-spot-minister-health
hey, I resemble that remark!
I picked the wrong month to stop sniffing glue. Whelp, time to go huff some airline armrests.
Try licking them for faster, more reliable results.
Do not forget the window and rim. When people cough they tend to turn away from other people.
Futures tanking after hours?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937
As a person who doesn't anything about trades or currency... Could someone please explain; what am I looking at and how does this effect the market?
Also i'm a Belgian whoop
too much typing; I don't get paid for this. read up on markets and bonds and their function in markets.
The top chart is the daily volume for all the US treasury futures on the CME exchange and the bottom one is the total daily volume for the eurodollar 3-month interest rate (not the euro vs dollar currency cross) contract on the CME exchange. The abnormal spike higher in volume today shows how much of a panic there is to get into these supposedly "safe haven" sectors.
That's a lot of scared peoplel lol. Reminds me of this article few days back about fear being the number one driving factor these days. ( apart from the obvious rigging)
TY for the replys, this puts things in perspective.
someone thinks it is the end of the world so thety have moved to the safety of the usa dollar by buying usa ious. when you understand how funny ironic this is you will have understood the present economy.
What amount of FRNs have you really seen lately? All the paper money is under the mattresses causing this loss of liquidity and THEN I hear Ebola causes liquidity, what gives?
Safe haven demand for U.S. Treasuries.Money will poor out of Japan and London and Europe and into the U.S.Down they all go faster than New York.It's a bloodbath by knifefight.
Only problem is that the government is now financed with 63% short term T-Bills, and the Fed owns a very large percentage of long term Treasuries (they were not buying T-bills after all!) Also almost 50% of the debt is foreign owned already (dollar reserves for instance). So there is not as much liquidity in the treasury "safe haven" market as one might think, which is why we're seeing large moves in treasuries (the 10 year was up over 2.5% earlier today - for the day!)
I knew they would bang the close. They had no choice because the markets were in freefall and gold was gaining even as the dollar was rising. Capital flows were going into gold and T-bills instead of FB. You do not see that very often. When you do see it, it means something and not something good if you hold assets in digits.
A major bank is about to collapse is my guess. Someone who holds a shitpile of derivative debt is about to go under and then they will ask us to pay for it and put it on the national credit card as though we are responsible for it.
Fuck them. Let them burn.
without some catalyst like the lopsided default of lehman there will be a fairly orderly retreat. the only clear catalysts are war and ebola. there is nothing in the financial sector that portends a liquidity trap.
the fact that this is the most predicted correction in the history of the market makes it suspect. no one except the fringe ever calls bears with conviction until it is halfway over. this one was called months in advance. btfd.
yellen queefed out a pile of bitcoin..... the scent is irresistible to the bond market
It means one thing:
Sacrificial lambs are coming from Europe this time.
They are highly leveraged in USD and need dollars and collateral to survive.
No mercy for them, none. Pleasure will be taken while they die
His name was Treasury Futures.
Future return on bonds at this level can only be positive with deflation. But will the banks really survive that. How can they possibly just exist to loan money only to the gov. During a depression the economy contracts and debt goes fits up everywhere. So in a couple months when S&P IS 1100 they will quietly position for massive printing and sell bonds and flip to stocks and PM's. Gold 895 or something.
If you are correct , imagine what you could buy with let's say....three oz's ?
Having something that holds a known Value such as Gold, World wide , being transportable ! Myself I will stay diversified.
Q. How do you pay off a Bond when it's due ?
A. You get somebody else to buy another Bond.
What does this sound like ?