This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Dow Drops 6th Day - Longest Losing Streak In 14 Months
An ugly dump in stocks early on sent all the major indices to yesterday's lows (and bond yields to yesterday's lows) but for a smorgasbord of reasons (pick from: Bullard "QE4", jobless claims, industrial production, oil rising, lack of Ebola panic, oh and POMO) stock performed the ubiquitous bounce and extended gains quite handsomely before fading back in the afternoon. Volume was considerably lower than yesterday but solid (driven mostly by the dump). All major asset classes ticked together all day with USDJPY, Treasury yields, stocks, and oil all rising with one another. The USD was flat (despite some intraday kneejerks) as were gold and silver. Copper slid lower as oil jerked dramatically higher intraday before falling back (holding above $82). VIX fell modestly to around 25.5. Once again early manic-selling led to late buying panic (but the volume buying was dramatically lower). The Dow closed red for the 6th day in a row - longest losing streak since Aug 2013.
Russell & Trannies were the best performers on the day as the major indices all closed around unchanged despite the best effortsof JPY...
The weakness in stocks (during the European session) is evident from futures...
Ramp volume (which lifted S&P Futs back to VWAP) was weak relative to selling volume
Sectors saw the worst first today as Energy rebounded...
Everything was nicely coupled today...
A very big swing in HY CDX today (looks like hedges being unwound and managers reducing risk into the rally)
VIX decoupled again at the close (same as the last 2 days)...
The USD kneejerked higher and back down around EU and US data to close very marginally higher (-0.9% on the week)
Treasury yields rose 3-4bps on the day - across the curve
Oil surged (but faded back), gold and silver flat, copper lower...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: GOOG....
- 9811 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -














yeah it sold off alright...
after a fucking 200 point correction to the upside on volume no where near the 94 million shares traded in the last 30 minutes...
anybody that cant see what their doin to hold this piece of shit together is a fucking moron.
Duct tape and bailing wire.
The PPT did a great job today I think. almost green
Agree, they deserve the slowest clap.
Anyway we could rig it so the buy button on the PPT terminals shocks the shit out of the user? There has got to be some way to keep them from ressurecting Frakenmarket over and over and over again.
I was hoping for volitility but some issues have been up and down 5% day to day
Making me feel dizzy.
Google will drag tomorrow's NASDAQ. DOW will get a runup and then another full red Monday will follow.
Just because PPT pulled it off today doesn't mean they'll do it tomorrow, Monday, Tuesday, etc...
If tiny St Lucia can act on Ebola, why can't the US? http://tinyurl.com/pncez4q
Epic criminality--kleptocracy in action.
http://agonist.org/the-great-expectancy/
my buddy's ex-wife makes $80 hourly on the computer . She has been fired from work for 7 months but last month her pay check was $19252 just working on the computer for a few hours. see here http://goo.gl/yioYBZ
See Comments #1 to 20 in http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-16/pompous-prognostications-perman...
Kirk out.
Really?
6 whole days?
I know right, after being up for nearly 6 years straight.
Even Super QE can't stop the inevitable, Goldman.
I agree with this. I think long and strong going into an All Ebola Friday and weekend is nucking phuts.
We do need to "clear the air" (see below...is Ebola for real or not?) before buying into the silly season.
They can pump stocks up all they want like in Zimbabwe, except the money will be worthless. Zimbabwe's stock market had the best returns in the world during the hyperinflation years, but it cost $1,000,000,000 to buy a loaf of bread or dozen eggs. Given the choice between 300,000,000 people and Wall Street, the Fed will choose Wall Street until the starving people riot in the streets. Then the Fed and media will blame the starving people for crashing the stock market.
I think this time is for real.
It's does a couple of time i said that,
But now ot's look really scary for the stock market
(Economie already dead)
Thursday comedy: Sears Canada up 20% even though the company is essentially bankrupt and liquidating its assets.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3ASCC&ei=tiZAVPmePMfH8wbYrIDwBA
Yeah but in this case 20% is like a dollar.
lol
They just ain't no gud newz, pardner.
Where's Reggie with his Google articles?
AND EVERYWHERE PEOPLE BLAME EBOLA?!?!?
WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE?!?!
It's all over the news over here! Morons...
Totally incompetent response to the news of Ebola.
I'm not surprised by how perfectly bad the response has been...but looking at the equity folks they have every reason to "sell buying" here.
The valuations are enormous, no recovery has materialized, the Fed has failed at creating anything more than nominal inflation, mid cycle slowdowns are normative, political classes are incentivized to lie, this really might be an Ebola Outbreak!, we really haven't made any friends either here or abroad going on...is it 13 years now?
According to one Rickards chart I saw, the total Market CAP-GDP today is over 200%..
in mid-1929, it was under 90%.
Where could there possibly be any problem here?
"Two speed Europe", Fukushima, now this...
Funny how that person from the Dallas case (RIP) departed from Brussels...from what I have heard (or, not heard), there isn't anybody in Brussels with ebola.
Scary comment actually. "What if he lied about where he came from."
Could be the whole thing is a contrivance to scare the shit out of everbody.
That would include the President however...
Actually there are, several.
But that doesn't matter. Most cases have a non symptom of 21 days before they get sick. And if that's true, we'll have a pandemic that will wipe out a serious ammount of people.
and they compaire it to the flue.
people than think: oh the flue! That's not that bad!
.... Yeah... Ask the indians that question again...
the flue killed enormous amounts before they had anyrhing like a cure. In the old days, if you had the flue, you where a gonner.
Pathogens do exist inside our bodies.
What separates the "Ebola" one from the others?
That mother fucking Russel was the most god damn amazing thing I have seen in my short life. Watching that shit rocket up as if Yellan the shebeast from satan layer come upon the market itself and threw fucking free money out to the masses!!
The Russell was a bad fucking joke and I look forward to immentient fucking destruction.
+1 for ' immentient '
The PPT has one button. It says 'buy the shit out of IWM'
THEY all have IWM Hats too. Says ' got IWM?'
The fact that the "Russel" got just about to its 20-day MA, but not quite, shouldn't cause us to think it was pure machine mayhem to get to a short reloading point (i.e., they know they have institutional "dump when possible" orders, but want to use short stops to get to a spot where they'll make more $), because that would evidence cynicism, which wouldn't be nice.
The only argument with your post is to suggest you keep the final "l" at the end of "Russell", given it then includes a subliminal "SELL" message. . .
Ha! you do know it is spelled Russell 2000 ... http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=iwm
On a completley seperate topic:
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/bloodlines/russell.htm
It's Ru$$ell 2000 bitchez!!!
No wonder the Dow Industrials is weak. According to the Dow Theory the primary trend turned bearish on October 10th, as explained here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/10/dow-theory-update-for-october...
and here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/10/dow-theory-special-issue-afte...
Whether one thinks the Dow Theory is mumbo-jumbo or not, ca. 70% of the signals tend to be right (+115 years track record), so the odds favor lower prices ahead. I would never fundamentally argue against a technical primary bear market signal.
70% success rate eh? Shame the 30% false signals destroy any profits from the 70%.
P.S, yes, Dow Theory is total BS. Don't trade it.
Damn it that's a hard lesson to learn. I can't tell you how many times I had thought I'd designed an algorythm that solved the universe, only to find (again) that it was impossible to avoid that 10-20% error rate from wiping out all of the gains. It's as though the universe enforces balance no matter the context.
Most technical analysis (and for that matter fundamental) is BS, granted. Otherwise, it would be very easy to find riches in the markets.
The Dow Theory, though, has a solid track record spanning more than +116 years. So it is not a fad. Of course, it can fail, and it will fail if the whole economy crumbles (as buy and hold would fail). However, it has done a remarkable job in protecting investors from catastrophic losses in the past (1929 and 1987 come to my mind).
And it is well documented that it has outperformed the Industrials and the S&P (by 2 or 4% annual, depending on the Dow Theory flavor) while reducing dramatically drawdowns. This is documented for all to see. We cannotmake assurance as tothe future, but I'd rather drive a car that has proven to be safe in the past.
One can feel uncomfortable putting aside all pretense of knowing the future (fudamentals), but until now, the 70% winners have by far exceeded the amount lost in 30% losing trades. This is a fact:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/p/normal-0-21-false-false-false-es-x-...
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/p/face-off-schannep-versus-classical-...
But to each his own...and I respect it. Makets work because there is diversity of opinions.
2 questions. Do you trade it consistently and does it make you money? If the answer to both questions is yes then there is no need for further discussion. Technical analysis is another hocus pocus tool that does not work because individuals traders can't but help putting their own personal bias' onto the charts I.e. they see what they want to see.
Good trading to you Sir/Madam.
Do you make make any money trading your fundamentals? Give me an answer and I will answer your question. :=)
Your remark concerning personal bias is fully right. This is why it is very difficult to trade based on technicals and very few are able to put their biases to rest. Here we agree.
Best
Fundamentals????? Good grief, are you insane? I am a day trader of the ES exclusively and use live market internals as aides (NYSE ticks, breadth and VWAP). Bias' and opinions are left at the door on the way in and yes I do make more than I lose on a consistent basis. Now, an answer if you please.
Fair enough. So we are are not so far apart: we are not on the fundamentalist camp. Your approach seems fully respectable to me (it reminds me, although I lack the details that of Marty Schwarz)
I trade a blend of short term technical systems of my own (trade duration from 1 day to 5 days on average), based exclusively on technical parameters and applied to a broad base of stocks.
Such systems are profitable on their own. However, they get a performance boost and drawdown reduction (back tested and in real life since the last 4 years) when I integrate a Dow Theory filter, namely: when the primary trend is bearish according to the Dow Theory, the entry and exit rules are accordingly changed in order to be more in tune with the prevailing market trend. In other words: I don't fight the primary trend ("primary" means trends lasting 1-2 years) of the market. And honestly, the Dow Theory does a much better job at the determining the trend with a reduced lag than moving averages (at least this is what I have found).
You might ask: Why not directly trade the Dow Theory as such? Am I afraid or suspicious? Why blend it with shorter term trading? Answer: Because I tend to make more with my short term system (i.e. high volatility stocks) coupled with the Dow Theory filter, than by just using the Dow Theory and buying the SPY. However, if my short term trading couldn't accommodate my capital (something which may happen if liquidity continues to evaporate), then I would switch to an almost pure Dow Theory approach. And I say "almost pure" because, if I apply long term Dow Theory trading to high RS stocks (instead of buying the SPY) I also get a performance boost with contained drawdowns.
Yes, I have been able to stick to my rules for 4 years. Truly. But the trick is: I had prepared myself intensively during ten years and knew the Dow Theory and my blend of systems inside out. So I agree with you that for the average Joe would be very difficult to stick to it.
Really, Traderone we are not so far apart. And has been nice to change ideas with you.
Regards
NFLX nailed 20% because it turns out the growth just isn't there. i expect that for the overal market.
This feels like September 10 2001 when Rumsfeld said they "lost" 2 trillion dollars. Only worse. Ebola is going to spread like wildfire, the markets and global economy is going to take a giant shit, the gov is going to implement social and economic controls, and the reminants of the constitution will go away forever. I hope I'm being paranoid.
I wonder if Rumsfeld's Gilead has some shtuff going on in the ebola department.
There was swine flu, then avian flu, and now this. It, too, shall pass. (Sorry for those who are affected, but statistically, it is nothing to worry about.)
The un-fed painted itself into a corner long ago, but hell yes they will puke up another QE. Problem is they can keep propping up wall street but main street is fucked.
Not that those mother fuckers give a shit. They know most of Amerika is clueless and will keep taking the ass poundings!
QE4 is simply - Talking about QE4.
But I thought that the first rule of QE is that you do not talk about QE?
Muppets getting owned, the muppets getting owned!
JU GOT OWNED!
BTFD
we will trade 1950 before 1750, this correction is over.
Yesterdays bond move was the capitulation at the bottom; we ever figure out what firm got blown out of their short bonds?
Was long coming out of the 2008 collapse because I believed in the response to the crisis. Have stayed out of equities for a while now because I haven't believed in the same response this go around.
We'll see bu I would not be surprised by a huge liquidation tomorrow.
"1950 before 1750"
So . . . the market will first seem like the Great Brink's Robbery, then be as tragic as the death of JS Bach?
"Ahhhhh, Bach...
Had a feeling you were a fan, Vet. You must be thrilled Synchrony Financial is using his F-Major 2-Part Invention in their commercials :)
The stick save just ain't what it used to be.
I refuse to believe that the Fed won't try to save the day. Yes it will all collapse but to have that happen without an apparent effort on their part would be inconceivable.
Gee, and how many times over the years have the pundits said ('specially the gold pumpers) that the Chinese are "dumping" US Treasuries?
Well....
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FOREIGN_HOLDINGS?SITE=AP&SECTI...
I am a rookie uneducated shade tree economist. My observation is that there should be great concern if the PPT is throwing all the flaming digital money at the market in an attempt to get it on the upswing. Seems to be sputtering. At some point it's going to auger like an unlucky test pilot. Many smartypants pepo say they can keep this up forever cause they have the printer but my query would ask if it is a legit way to build value. Most here know it is a giant fed smartypantz hoax. Where's the "value" peop? How does a company increase in value when the workers have less and less money to buy products. It's all a confidence game. The fed is all in this time. Evil evil cksuckers.
Moving averages are surprisingly good indicators of changing trend. You could dodge almost every stock crash in history just by selling whenever the stock index went below the 100 or 200 day moving average.
For the Dow Jones, the 50 day moving average was broken on July 31 then again on October 1, October 7, and October 9. Just like giving birth, notice how they're getting closer together. The Dow is having a harder time staying above the average, and it hasn't been above average since the 8th. Ignoring everything related to fundamentals, the technicals are flashing red. Investor sentiment is changing. It doesn't matter if the economy is picking up, it doesn't matter if everybody has a job, it doesn't matter if someone finds a cure for cancer. All that matters is sentiment. Are people jumping into the market or are they pulling out. Right now, it looks like they're pulling out.
It's important to keep track of the indicies because lots of things go down in sympathy. A company might be doing great financially, but their stock will still go down if the market as a whole is crashing.
You're thinking of HIV. The first rule of HIV is that you don't tell your sex partners you have HIV.
That had a "Patient Zero" as well...
These guys are good. They are tossing us around like a wounded hamster at the mercy of a tomcats claws.
I am absolutely convinced they can paint the chart like Michaelangelo.
Quick, get the Fed Chair to mumble something. ANYTHING!