Everything Breaks Again: Futures Tumble; Peripheral Yields Soar, Greek Bonds Crater

Yesterday afternoon's "recovery" has come and gone, because just like that, in a matter of minutes, stuff just broke once again courtsy of a USDJPY which has been a one way liquidation street since hitting 106.30 just before Europe open to 105.6 as of this writing:

• U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD DROPS 15 BASIS POINTS TO 1.99%
• S&P FUTURES PLUNGE 23PTS, OR 1.2%, AS EU STOCKS DROP 2.54%

This comes after futures actually were briefly green for the session earlier in the morning. The catalyst this time, however, is not some US fund liquidating or repositioning or new Ebola pandemic news, but all Europe:

• GERMAN 10-YEAR BUND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD LOW 0.715%

Only this time Europe is once again broken with periphery yields exploding, after Spain earlier failed to sell the maximum target of €3.5 billion in bonds, instead unloading only €3.2 billion, and leading to this:

• PORTUGAL 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD CLIMBS 30 BPS TO 3.58%
• IRISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE; YIELD RISES 20 BPS TO 1.90%
• SPANISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD JUMPS 29 BPS TO 2.40%

And the punchline, as usual, is Greece, whose 10 Year is now wider by over 1% on the session(!), to just about 9%.

Greece frightening. 10y yield +100 bps today to 8.85%, up more than 200 bps this week: pic.twitter.com/lUm89S1CkM

— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) October 16, 2014

One-handed golf clap to all those who used other people's money to buy those Greek 5 Year bonds a few months ago.

In short, Europe is a sea of red, only unlike before when the bid for safety was peripheral bonds, this time the puking is also sending the periphery crashing, something we last saw just before Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech, which means that the market has finally called the ECB's bluff and demands that after 2 years of jawboning, that the ECB actually put the printer where its mouth is. Good luck with that.

Let's not forget that oil is also still sliding and we have yet to see some major macro fund liquidate as a result of commodity margin calls. The wait will hardly be too long at this point.

Oh, and we forgot to mention that today Dallas well announce State of Disaster (aka martial law lite) and activate an emergency plan over its third Ebola case. So all those BTFD, best of luck to you too.

Bulletin Headline Summary

• European equities only see short-lived relief at the open as Greek market rot spreads to the Eurozone core, pushing German 10yr yields to – yet again – record lows.
• Greek markets continue to sell-off on speculation that Greece’s early bailout exit will be less than smooth. The market turmoil also results in Spain failing to sell their targeted EUR 3.5bln in a longer-dated Bono auction
• Focus turns to the slew of Fed speakers today, primarily Yellen at 1745BST/1145CDT, and earnings from Goldman Sachs, Google and Philip Morris
• Treasury rally continues, 10Y trading below 2% while 30Y yield lowest since Dec. 2012 amid concern over global growth and possible economic impact of Ebola.
• Investors are worried that five years since the world limped out of recession, central banks have virtually exhausted their stimulus arsenals if inflation and activity keep fading
• A second Texas nurse infected with Ebola alerted U.S. health officials to her elevated temperature before flying from Cleveland to Dallas on a commercial airline
• Lawmakers and health specialists say reversals and missteps mar the Obama administration’s handling of the outbreak -- and fueled calls for the resignation of CDC chief Thomas Frieden, who testifies today in Congress
• As airpower has failed to dislodge Islamic State fighters from the Syrian border town of Kobani or halt their offensive in Iraq, Obama’s appeals for strategic patience are being challenged by some U.S. military and intelligence officers and diplomats who say more needs to be done
• It’s futile for the U.S. and its allies to “blackmail” Russia over the Ukraine crisis, Putin said in a newspaper interview; also accused Obama of adopting a “hostile” approach in naming Russia as a threat to the world
• The ECB agreed yesterday on two acts that officially establish its covered-bond program and lay out how it will be implemented, according to two euro-area officials, who asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public
• Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said his government is ready to meet student leaders next week to discuss the city’s first leadership election as he seeks to end three weeks of pro-democracy protests
• EU peripheral yields surge, with Greek 10Y over 8.00%. Asian stocks fall, Nikkei -2.2%, Shanghai -0.7%. European stocks, U.S. equity-index futures fall. Brent crude falls to four-year low; copper falls, gold little changed

US Econ Calendar

• 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. 11, est. 290k (prior 287k); Continuing Claims, Oct. 4, est. 2.380m (prior 2.381m)
• 9:15am: Industrial Production, m/m, Sept., est. 0.4% (prior -0.1%); Capacity Utilization, Sept., est. 79% (prior 78.8%)
• 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Oct. 12 (prior 36.8); Economic Expectations, Oct. (prior 41.5)
• 10:00am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Oct., est. 19.8 (prior 22.5)
• 10:00am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Oct., est. 59 (prior 59)
• 4:00pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Aug. (prior -$18.6b); Total Net TIC Flows, Aug. (prior $57.7b)

Central Banks

• 8:00am: Fed’s Plosser speaks in Allentown, Pa.
• 9:00am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in New Brunswick, N.J.
• 10:00am: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Billings, Mont.
• 12:45pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Washington
• 12:45pm: Fed’s Yellen attends event in Chelsea, Mass.

POMO

• 11:00am: Fed to purchase $150m-$250m in 2024-2031 sector

FIXED INCOME

After yesterday's sell-off in US equities abated ahead of the Wall Street close, European equities opened on firmer footing - albeit this was very short-lived. Greek woes swirled further, as the Greek 10yr yield jumped above 8.5% for the first time in 8 months on continued speculation that Greece's early IMF bailout exit will be less-than smooth. The resulting market turmoil in Greece rubbed off on today's Spanish bond auction, as the Spanish Treasury failed to sell their targeted EUR 3.5bln in 2024 and 2028 debt. The SP/GE 10yr government bond yield has widened in response, wider by 22bps today as the Spanish 10yr yield climbs above 2.3%.

The Euribor curve continues to bear-flatten after the ECB confirmed they are yet to make a decision on Greece's collateral requirements at the ECB, despite discussing doing so as earlier reports suggested the ECB could accept poorer quality collateral in order to access liquidity.

EQUITIES

Greek equities have fallen sharply, dragging both Italian and Spanish stocks with it, as a number of Italian banks are stopped out of trade - limit down. Furthermore, lacklustre corporate earnings updates from Nestle and Roche as well as AbbVie turning against Shire dropped blue-chip stocks across the continent.

Corporate earnings updates today include Goldman Sachs, Google, Philip Morris International and Schlumberger all due today.

FX

A resumed decline in industrial metals (Chinese iron ore futures fell 4% overnight) has knocked commodity-based currencies, with CAD, AUD and NZD all underperforming. EUR/USD saw some mild upside after Eurozone Core CPI was revised higher to 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7%, allowing the pair to reclaim the 1.2800 level ahead of the US crossover. Alongside the downside in European equity futures, the JPY has benefited further, gaining no solace from comments out of BoJ’s Kuroda overnight – who reiterated the Bank of Japan will continue with QQE until their price target is reached.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent crude futures again trade softer, with WTI crude briefly breaking below USD 80/bbl. Energy prices failed to find support in positive Chinese data, which overnight showed Foreign Direct Investment rising 1.9% vs. Exp. -14.0%. Furthermore, Yesterday’s API inventories showed a significant build of 10200K vs. Prev. 5100K. The Kuwaiti Oil Co. additionally appeared unphased by the recent slide in oil, as the CEO reaffirmed that the Co. are to raise production further.

* * *

Jim Reid's dramatic summary concludes the overnight recap

Where do we start this morning? Its tempting to get back under the duvet after a 24 hours like the last one, especially as after a year of renovations, my central heating is still not working properly. Anyway I grew up in a house without central heating so I'm made of sterner stuff. As a starter I think its fair to say that after the US opened yesterday it was not wise to be long Greek government bonds and short US Treasuries. In 10 years the former rose 82bps on the day and the latter fell an incredible 34bps at the lows. It was the worst day for Greek Government bonds since July 23rd 2012 (more on this later) and had the US intra-day move stuck, it would have been the biggest yield move on a % basis relative to the starting yield in history.

However it didn't stick and the story of the day for US treasuries was one of a sharp post retail sales rally, then a flash rally, then a flash crash and then a slow but steady sell-off. At 7am NY time 10 years were sitting calmly at around 2.20% before rallying hard to 2.05% by 9am (post weak retail sales) and then 2% at 9.34am. At 9:38am though they hit 1.86%!!! They then reversed back to around 2.04% 15 minutes later before selling off to 2.14% at the close (currently lower this morning at 2.08%). A wild trip that suggests a large liquidation, capitulation or huge technical trading level breached. In markets that have a lower structural liquidity than pre-crisis these things can happen but something big in positioning must have happened yesterday.

With all this going on one wonders what probabilities you'd get that the Fed actually does QE again before it raises rates. I'm sure if you'd have suggested this a month ago many would have thought that there was more chance of Elvis being found living a relaxing retirement on the moon. As a minimum markets have now priced out a 2015 rate hike from the Fed which seems a sensible response. Our US rate strategist Dominic Konstam hosted a call last night and in it he suggested that a minimum pre-condition for stability was for the Fed to validate the re-pricing of the interest rate curve. Or in other words if they stick close to the message of the dots then to paraphrase Dominic it would be a disaster for risk assets. So we perhaps need to hear more dovish comments from the Fed along the lines of Fischer's remarks at the IMF over the weekend and others like Williams back on Tuesday.

The other (and bigger) problem is clearly in Europe. Before we get to Greece the further collapse in 5yr5yr breakevens suggest a market running out of confidence in the ECB's ability to be able to do enough to arrest deflation. In the pdf today we show the history of this. Before mid-August we had only fleetingly traded below 2% in the 10 year history we have. It did manage to go back above 2% again in early September but since September 9th we've been back below 2% with the move accelerating over the last week. We closed at around 1.75% yesterday having hit 1.70% intra-day. This is a key gauge that Draghi looks at although he did downplay it a little in the last ECB meeting. However whichever variable he looks at this morning its fair to say that he will see a market that is not confident the ECB can deliver anywhere near enough to turn things around.

More days like yesterday will surely produce a policy response soon though. If it were to prompt a fiscal break through in Europe then the market would really like that.

Onto Greece and markets struggled yesterday on the back of ongoing political issues in the country. The Athex closed down -6.3%, its worst day since 29th October 2012, although at one point it was down more than 10%, making it the biggest intra-day drop in six years. At the same time Greek 10Y debt closed the day 82bps wider, its biggest one day widening since 23rd July 2012. Greek assets have been struggling recently as its current embattled government has looked ever more likely to collapse before their official mandate expires in 2016, even as the Prime Minister Antonio Samaras has decided Greece will end its IMF bailout programme in December, 15 months early. The anti-bailout Syriza party has seen its polling lead grow ever larger over the current dominant governing party, New Democracy. The latest poll, conducted between October 9-13 by GPO, put Syriza in a 6.5% lead over New Democracy. A general election will take place if the governing parties New Democracy and Pasok fail to secure 180 votes in parliament - the minimum needed to elect a new head of state in February as the incumbent is set to retire. The Greek PM told the Cabinet yesterday that he still expects elections in 2016 as scheduled and remains committed to his current reform programme. Almost irrespective of the final outcome of current political worries it seems they could well remain unresolved well into Q1 next year with the February vote on Greece’s new head of state the most obvious catalyst for change on the horizon.

Moving on to other parts of the European market it was also a historic day to some degree. The 10yr German Bund and French OAT yields fell around 7-8bps to fresh lows of 0.75% and 1.13%, respectively. European equities endured a difficult day with the Stoxx600, DAX, CAC, IBEX, and FTSEMIB down -3.2%, -2.9%, -3.6%, -3.6% and -4.4%, respectively. It was the 7th consecutive down day for the Stoxx600 and it was also the biggest loss for Italian markets since February 2013. On the other side of the Atlantic, the official close of S&P 500 (-0.81%) also failed to tell the whole picture. The index saw a 2.9% peak-totrough intraday move yesterday which at one point actually erased all of its YTD gains. The VIX index closed at a near 29-month high of 26.25 (crossed 31 during intraday). Interestingly Energy (+0.43%) stocks posted modest gains despite the further drift lower in oil prices. Brent fell 1.5% to test the lows of US$83/bbl into the close and there seems to be little good news going on for the commodity right now. US Financials (-2.0%) were the biggest drag to the market in what was the worst day for US bank stocks in nearly 2 years as low rates raised fears of margin concerns.

Indeed there wasn’t much good news anywhere for markets yesterday. Ebola concerns are also gaining more media focus in the US after second nurse Amber Joy Vinson was tested positive for Ebola in Dallas after nursing a Liberian patient. This raised renewed concerns about the protocols for containing the outbreak and has prompted US officials to call for more aggressive monitoring of incidents where the virus could potentially spread. Data flow failed to offer much relief either. The Fed’s Beige Book reported modest-to-moderate growth conditions but the NY Fed survey fell by 21.3pts in October (second biggest monthly fall in recorded history) whilst Retail sales print were also disappointing (-0.3% mom v -0.1% expected). PPI was also softer than expected which is broadly in line with the trend of prices we are seeing globally.

Asian markets are not surprisingly following the weaker lead from US yesterday. Chinese equities are the only major equity markets trading firmer on the day probably helped by data showing that aggregate credit growth rose to a 3 month high in September. Power consumption in China rose 2.7% yoy in September, which although is an improvement from the negative 1.5% print in August, it is still the second worst reading in the last 18 months. Away from China, bourses in Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul and Hong Kong are down -2.2%, -0.4%, -0.3% and -0.5%, respectively as we go to print. The Nikkei is now at around a 6-month low. The Dollar is weaker against key currencies. Asian credit spreads drifted wider given the broader risk off tone. Bank of China’s US$6.5bn AT1 printed overnight and is now quoted higher at 100.40/100.65 after having dipped below par at the open.

Looking at the data docket ahead we have initial jobless claims, industrial production, NAHB housing market index, and the Philly Fed in the US. Data will still be important but with the current disconnect between what’s priced in and the Fed’s dot plot, we will be increasingly sensitive to any Fed communication in the weeks and months to come. The next key event will be the 2 day FOMC meeting concluding on the 29 October (no press conference scheduled) but well ahead of that we have four Fed speakers today. Fed’s Plosser (1pm UKT) will speak on the economic outlook and will take questions from reporters. Fed’s Lockhart (2pm UKT) will speak on workforce development at a university conference co-sponsored by the Atlanta and Kansas Fed. Kocherlakota’s speech today is “Clarifying the Objectives of Monetary Policy” (3pm UKT) and finally Fed’s Bullard (5.45pm UKT) will speak on US demographics (Q&A available). After all this the focus will be on Yellen as she speaks to a Boston Fed conference on “Inequality of Economic Opportunity” tomorrow so stay tuned for that.

Let's see what the next 24 hours brings!!

Comments

[negative rates]

Yawn.

[Headbanger]

Fucking clueless idiot as usual

And it's going to be a very cold Winter again:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-war...

[TruthInSunshine]

Just remember this, regardless as to what happens over any 24 hour or 5 day or 1 month period (or longer)...

The world is really, fundamentally broken now, in no small measure due to absolutely incompetent, grossly reckless actions by central banks for 6 years now (longer than that, in reality, since we never truly escaped the crisis due to the very same incompetent, grossly reckless actions of/by central banks).

I'd like to propose a new, rough law of macroeconomics (I'll keep refining it until it is distilled into final, clear form):

For each and every central bank action, there is an unequal, larger overreaction, always and forever setting up the system wide failure that is evident in the then next inevitable correction.

[USisCorrupt]

Are you trying to tell me that it is time to take off my rose colored glasses?

Wake me when the S & P Breaks 666.

[TeamDepends]

Thank God it's Friday!

[Hard1]

• PORTUGAL 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD CLIMBS 30 BPS TO 3.58%....my target yield for these is 15%
• IRISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE; YIELD RISES 20 BPS TO 1.90%...My target yield for these is 9%
• SPANISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD JUMPS 29 BPS TO 2.40%....I'm a buyer at 12%, but only if there is a downtick in unemployment.

[VATICANT]

This law let's us hang the bankers? Public square?

[XAU XAG]

That "one more for the road" (QE) Always causes the Hangover!

Drunks never learn

I should know!

J Yellen 

The FED

[youngman]

Its called a TUD...Totally Unnecesssary Drink...when you are already drunk..and you say....yeah, I hove just one more.....

[highly debtful]

The thing is: at this point, what could possibly be their plan B to get us all out of this mess as unscathed as possible? I mean, preparing on a personal level is pretty much within anybody's reach, but we're all living in these complex beehives with an awful lot of interaction and interdepedency. How are they going to cope? How are we going to cope? That's been on my mind for several years now.

Otherwise, TIS, I share your sobering diagnose.  

[TruthInSunshine]

Plan B will be interesting to witness, if there is one, given that BernYellen already is sitting on a 4.43 trillion USD balance sheet.

Belgium! Belgium! Where art thou Belgium?

[GetZeeGold]

Yawn.

Go back to bed....you're gonna need your strength for this afternoon.

[firstdivision]

Pretty sure Yellen et al have this covered.  Still hasn't broken yesterdays low yet.  Remember, looking at the "market" you're looking at a creation of someones imagination, which is somehow predicated on a number that has had the basket of stocks change serveral times over the years. 

[luckylongshot]

It is starting to look like we did Russia a favour by distancing them from the coming western world train wreck through those nice sanctions....mmmm it was not supposed to work out like this!

[NotApplicable]

I think it was supposed to work exact like this. The West is in the latter stages of an inescapable debt-fueled crack-up boom, so TPTB are setting the the stage for what comes next.

[nmewn]

Paging Dr.Krugman, Dr.Krugman you're needed in the Ebola Isolation Unit.

Dr.Krugman to the Ebola Isolation Unit.

[LULZBank]

Ebola has nothing on Dr Krugman when it comes to destruction of human prosperity.

[buzzsaw99]

Wrong Reid, you incredible FUCKTARD!:

With all this going on one wonders what probabilities you'd get that the Fed actually does QE again before it raises rates. I'm sure if you'd have suggested this a month ago many would have thought that there was more chance of Elvis being found living a relaxing retirement on the moon...

EVERYONE ON THIS WEBSITE HAS KNOWN ALL ALONG THAT THE UNTAPER COMETH YOU IMBECILIC DISINFO PEDDLER!

[GetZeeGold]

before it raises rates

Heh heh.....good one!

[negative rates]

I'm glad I don't understand Chinese.

[Ghordius]

Jim Reid: "The other (and bigger) problem is clearly in Europe. Before we get to Greece the further collapse in 5yr5yr breakevens suggest a market running out of confidence in the ECB's ability to be able to do enough to arrest deflation."

so Jim Reid's definition of deflation is... what? Other People's Money pressure at max levels? I sometimes wonder....

[kowalli]

definition of deflation is assets, stocks, bonds, etc. It's not a shop price for ordinary man.

Inflation for ordinary man is about 20% a year

[TruthInSunshine]

Deflation, in real life (for reasons of currency moves in this case), over the very recent past and projected short or intermediate term future, is a strong US dollar, and one only need look to oil futures to see how this manifests itself in the real world, and gains momentum, since oil is still purchased on major international commodity markets in USD.

The further deflation in oil price (in USD terms), ironically, will come from decreased purchases of oil in places such as Europe, due to price spikes, further adding to supply glut (due to momentary Saudi high rate of production, which I believe is a policy designed in conjunction with the US, Israel and possibly even NATO writ large, to penalize Russia further).

[disabledvet]

Greek and peripheral debt is bigger now than in 2008. My guess would be a cascade effect simply ejecting the bulk of Europe out of the euro.

I agree...if Greece et al (France?) are forced to return to their local currencies there will be a massive inflation "adjustment" to reflect the new reality.

[TruthInSunshine]

A Big Mac in Greece, I'm guessing, probably costs the equivalent of $10
USD at present, and if purchased with drachma, would cost the equivalent of $20 USD.

But this is the most efficient, despite very painful, short term way for Greece to essentially declare de facto BK, screw its creditors, and shed massive debt, in order to be able to survive and rebuild - pay creditors back in drachma which would result in a real 90% default/haircut to creditors right out of the gate).

[Ghordius]

from memory, a Big Mac meal (the combo with fries and a bev) costed around 6 EUR in Athens, this spring ^{(my young American relative refused to try souvlakis)}

most commentators ask for a return to a Drachma with a devaluation of 40%. but yes, if you screw your creditors, they are going to ask moar interest, aren't they? And where do markets know that 40% is the "right" result? FX markets aren't neither compassionate nor really beyond suspicion, as the "hot money" bond markets

there is no such thing as a Free Lunch, particularly on the long run

^{but seriously: eating a Big Mac in Greece is... so superficial. plenty of better alternatives, which are also healthier, cheaper and taste better}

[TruthInSunshine]

Big Macs really do make people sick (I'm a meat eater, but do not and would not eat Big Macs).

Greeks, likewise, are far better off sticking with their local food, raised and grown locally (olive oil, lamb, oregano, parsley, lemons, thyme, octopus, snapper, other fish, village salads/Greek greens - Horta - , dandelions, saganaki, feta, goat, etc.).

[Haus-Targaryen]

A Gyro in Greece is always the credited solution.  

That being said -- as things in Europe get warmed up again, and the "death warmed over" small is returning -- I look forward to doing battle with you again.  I can only hope though -- that if this thing does explode -- you stick around here for a thousand "I told ya sos" 

[TruthInSunshine]

With Ghordius or me?

I have maintained it was unwise for the EU to expand as far and as broad as it did, and that a common currency union in Europe represented a congenital defect given the incredibly varying cultural, technological and competitive advantages/disadvantages existing between current EU member nations.

[Ghordius]

TIS, gold used to be a common currency. He means me

[nightwish]

Everything travels where it truly belongs. Dow 11,098 seems about right if we can get a sustained blast through that pesky 200

[LULZBank]

Yo have to love the BBC headlines.

Global shares slide on growth fears

They run this same headline everytime the indexes go down, as if that is the only reason shares go up or down.

[Rip van Wrinkle]

Does anyone watch BBC anymore? I can't ..... I lose a shoe and the TV when I sling the thing through the screen. And I have to pay for this bullshit or go to prison.

Revolution anyone?

[LULZBank]

I browse through the headlines on BBC, The Telegraph and RT before I come to ZH and at intervals just to keep the perspective and to see what the sheeple are being fed on fringe blogs and on the mainstream.

And then I vent out on the comments section here as none of my friends dont want to talk to me anymore... lulzz

[TruthInSunshine]

If your former social circle was full of MSM-fed sheeple, congrats on your unplugging from the Matrix.

[Ghordius]

"The anti-bailout Syriza party has seen its polling lead grow ever larger over the current dominant governing party, New Democracy. The latest poll, conducted between October 9-13 by GPO, put Syriza in a 6.5% lead over New Democracy. A general election will take place if the governing parties New Democracy and Pasok fail to secure 180 votes in parliament - the minimum needed to elect a new head of state in February as the incumbent is set to retire. The Greek PM told the Cabinet yesterday that he still expects elections in 2016 as scheduled and remains committed to his current reform programme. Almost irrespective of the final outcome of current political worries it seems they could well remain unresolved well into Q1 next year with the February vote on Greece’s new head of state the most obvious catalyst for change on the horizon."

what has the appointment of a new head of state of Hellas to do with the general politics of Greece? the position is supposed to be "super partes", above the politics. The prez is usually selected among the few politicians that are respected for their way of not pushing hard for single issues. As such, hardly a political signal in any direction. Jim here is ... bah, the real point out of his writing is the opposite one: Greeek Parliament staying on this course (possibly until 2016)

[GetZeeGold]

I just want to thank my ancestors for having the moxie to travel to the new world.....or I'd be having to deal that all that crap.

[negative rates]

Yeah, those left sided drivers harden their hearts so bad they were destine to be doomed.

[Silverhog]

I can't stand stupid articles on Market Watch like "Warren Buffet doesn't show sign of worry about the market"  WTF, he's a billionaire. Is that suppose to make the rest of us feel better??? What Clown asses.  

[kowalli]

ofc "Warren Buffet doesn't show sign of worry about the market" - he already sold all his shares, why should he worry?

[Boomberg]

If Warren's dividends get cut, then he worries, and heads wil roll. Stock price not that big of a deal. 

[new game]

why do you watch it- u r the idiot clownass for watching

[Ghordius]

"Ebola concerns are also gaining more media focus in the US"

Jim Reid, after leaving his "warm duvets" of his London house, points to an interesting thing: media focus on Ebola in Europe is way less then in the US. No, I don't have any explanation for this divergence

[Sid James]

It's self interest. It'll ramp up dramatically once the virus hits those countries.

[xcehn]

"Possible Ebola case in Copenhagen:A Doctors without Borders employee who has been in west Africa was admitted to Hvidore Hospital on Thursday for suspicion of having the Ebola virus. Tests are currently underway."

http://www.thelocal.dk/20141016/breaking-possible-ebola-case-in-copenhagen

[Brazen Heist]

They're preparing everybody to the idea that Ebola is the new fall guy. Economy gone bad? Its the Ebola dumbass!

[THE DORK OF CORK]

How  in the name of God is human labour going to pay for the european brownian motion economy ?

http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/Energy_in_Transport/Energy-in-Transport-2014-report.pdf

Always look at the irish canary in the coalmine.

Our private car purchases will top 100,000 + for the first time since 2008 and all hell breaks out.

Its quite funny really. 

If we look at the irish domestic economy (we is much like the greek) any increase in car purchases or house build extracts massive amounts of basic purchasing power.

Its screaming off the national accounts.

"In 2013 the estimated cost of imports of oil

products for the transport sector was €3.5 billion.

This accounts for just over half of the estimated

total cost of fuel imports across the entire

economy."

So oil in the irish transport sector accounts for half of the overall TOTAL FUEL COST  OF IMPORTS.

This  using of  oil for no particular purpose other then chasing after artifically scarce money is the ulitmate hallmark of eurozone economies.

People suffer from a extreme lack of purchasing power in euroland.

This is causing a breakup of entire societies.

All so that the money can be concentrated within financial houses !!!!!!!!!

[barre-de-rire]

............

_{cough cough}

[nmewn]

"On a recent afternoon at Paris’s Gare du Nord train station, a man leans against a lamppost with an empty wine bottle at his feet and spouts a jet of pink vomit over a parking bay for public bicycles.

Locals hurry by, avoiding looking at the man, while visitors stare in fascinated horror."

Hey! How bout a nice warm croissant for breakfast? ;-)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/paris-s-squalor-pit-gare-du-nord-becomes-french-decline-symbol.html

[Ghordius]

 Gare du Nord is a very, very busy place. The article you attached claims 200 million passenger per year. You can witness any kind of human behaviour if you account for enough people. BTW, do you know who planned and was always very emotionally attached to the Gare du Nord, even risking a visit during a revolution? Baron James_Mayer_de_Rothschild. He loved that investment

having said that, French laws about what is permissible in public spaces... generate plenty of articles and cultural shocks among "les Anglo-Saxons". basically, you have to do something very, very gross, like this example, to be thrown out of a public space. If you take the train to London from that very station, you land at London's St. Pancreas Station, where the very concept of "public" is worlds apart

[barre-de-rire]

gare du nord,  most nigerish place of whole capital.

the place smell piss and shit and niggers just like in jails.

[Dr. Engali]

Any talk about the fed ever raising rates again is ridiculous. The ten year tells you the fed is full of shit, and anybody who thinks they will raise rates on the short end of the curve above 1% owes me a sandwich. Yeah I'm looking at you NoDebt.

[negative rates]

Okay agreed, but will they ever want to visit a hospital again?

[Seasmoke]

SODO make me a sandwich.

[netpounder]

Sgt. Maj. Page to St. Louis Oath Keepers: The End of American Sovereignty & Constitutional Rights

Watch this in it's entirety and pass it along to everyone. 36:27 "The United States is about to have an economic collapse."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XA_yW7Z5OM

[negative rates]

SWEEEEEET.

[netpounder]

Rex 84, short for Readiness Exercise 1984, was a classified "scenario and drill" developed by the United States federal government to suspend the United States Constitution, declare martial law, place military commanders in charge of state and local governments, and detain large numbers of American citizens who are deemed to be "national security threats", in the event that the President declares a "State of National Emergency". The plan states, events causing such a declaration would be widespread U.S. opposition to a U.S. military invasion abroad, such as if the United States were to directly invade Central America.[1][2][3][4][5] To combat what the government perceived as "subversive activities", the plan also authorized the military to direct ordered movements of civilian populations at state and regional levels.[6] Rex 84 was written by Lieutenant Colonel Oliver North, who was both National Security Council White House Aide, and NSC liaison to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and John Brinkerhoff, the deputy director of "national preparedness" programs for the FEMA. They patterned the plan on a 1970 report written by FEMA chief Louis Giuffrida, at the Army War College, which proposed the detention of up to 21 million "American Negroes", if there were a black militant uprising in the United States.[1][7] Existence of a master military contingency plan (of which REX-84 was a part), "Garden Plot" and a similar earlier exercise, "Lantern Spike", were originally revealed by journalist Ron Ridenhour, who summarized his findings in an article in CounterSpy.

[ClassicCommodity]

This is the most exciting it has been for a while. I love it when shit gets real and it's been real quiet for too long! Gonna be an awesome winter lololollol

Did i say... lol?

[Peter Pan]

I agree. The shit is definitely getting real. Go long on ceiling fans.

[LULZBank]

Did i say... lol?

Yes but you didn't say it properly... the Russki style...

[LULZBank]

Dup.

[MATA HAIRY]

Another aspect of the stock market that the media ignores is that the stock buybacks are assets owned by the corporations. Those assets will now shrink in value, and also the profits of the corporations will shrink as compared to the recent historical trends because the stock market is dropping.

This is a classic feedback loop. On the way up, this relationship caused positive growth, which looped back and caused more growth. Now that the market is headed down, the assets purchased through buybacks will be losses. A negative feedback loop. 

As the market drops further, the stocks bought through buybacks will drop in value, and profits will also drop compared to the previous month/quarter. This drop in stock value will cause a drop in the value of the company. When a company is worth less money than it was worth last month, its stock price will drop. And that drop will trigger another drop in the stock price of the company the next month. And so forth.

A classic negative feedback loop. Anyone with electrical/electronics education will know that this implies a very sharp drop in the market.

And of course the financial news media has not mentioned this at all. And if anyone with a real education has ever worked in the news media (as I have), they would know that the average journalist is an airhead, a major conformist, a person with very little abstract reasoning skills. So the media has not noticed this feedback loop relationship.

[XAU XAG]

MATA HAIRY

And the buy backs are funded from proffit NO?

Ah OH..............not Debt funded.......NO?

Those Debt to proffit ratios are going to look great!

Just like a Hockey stick.

[UggSmash]

Hey MATA: How's that work, accounting-wise? Are those shares recorded under Assets, or Owner's Equity? Does this negative feedback basically reduce Book Value (and thereby, stock price)?

[Brazen Heist]

The recovery funny money having created a stock bubble, all else seems to be deflated. Oil down, PMs down, fixed income yields down. Before the last crash, most assets were inflated. But this time, it seems that the specter of deflation really is engulfing the world economy.

Think about it, after the last great inflation, we are in the midst of a great deflationary, deleveraging period. Europe is looking like Japan 2.0, it won't fully recover from the crisis. Asia is slowing, Australia tied in along with it. The US is losing its reserve status.

Central bankers want of course to inflate out of this situation, but so far that approach has created way too many distortions in markets. Times are desperate indeed. Greece has lost over 10 years of "prosperity" (if you believe in GDP) since their fiscal crisis in 2009. Greek GDP today is where it was before the Olympics in 2004.

Could the world have reached peak prosperity? Should we be looking to Japan for a glimpse into the future? Hmmm

[new game]

in the midst of the event. slow mo, but b/4 ya know your are naked standing on the beach looking for warren... i'd look for some clothes...mad max is watching from the distant hills.

[carlnpa]

Exactly how did tptb think a trade war with Russia was going to turn out?

I believe Russia predicted this.

This is why trade wars turn into shooting wars.  Nothing like relearning history first hand.

[Brazen Heist]

Uncle Sam's sanctions on Russia were deliberate. Push Vlad into a corner until he snaps, then blame him for everything that follows. Distract and deflect strategies. Truly exceptional.

[THE DORK OF CORK]

Euroland is a extreme form of consumer war economy.

Private car production and consumption has replaced tank production and destruction.

When tank production faltered in 2009 the price of stuff such as houses began to deflate - blowing up the books of the banks,

The banks cannot have this however - they must continue to inflate.

However they are now inflating without a majority of the population inside their tent.

The people outside the tent are experiencing real drops of basic purchasing power.

This is very much a repeat of the Irish banking crash of 1820s (we had joined the union proper 20 years before)

The banks survived by simply writing millions off their books.

20 + years later Ireland had a little famine where one million people died and another million left the building.

This is a old banking playbook.

[mkhs]

I heard there was no famine.  It was a starvation.

[RealityCheque]

Seems like a good time for a classic. This one's for you janet:

...........................

....................../../) 

....................,/.. /

.................../..../

............./´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸

........../'/.../..../......./¨¯\

........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')

.........\.................'...../

..........''...\.......... _.·´

............\..............(

..............\.............\...

[Peter Pan]

Anything less than a fist won't register with that woman. Totally inadequate for the task and totally inexperienced about real life and what is going on out there amongst the 99%.

[RealityCheque]

Did that decision on the legality of OMT actually come through? It's been a hectic day or 2 and I might have missed it.

[THE DORK OF CORK]

"Spending will not match inflation ............"

http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2014/10/headlines-and-sound-bites-abound-austerity-is-over-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-austerity-we-beat-austerity.html

What causes inflation in a modern economy ?

Cars..............cars are the perfect vehicle to extract purchasing power.

Irish private carhttp://www.beepbeep.ie/stats?sYear%5B%5D=2014&sYear%5B%5D=2013&sRegType=... purchase up 30% from last year.

[wmbz]

Won't be long until the PTB start spewing the tired old "no one could have seen this coming" along with "unforeseen circumstances" and various bullshit reasons for "calming" the markets.  Man the pumps again and again and again.

Just line them up and shoot them already!

[Fix It Again Timmy]

Actually the FED has ONE moar tool at its disposable for boosting stocks; you've heard about rain dances, here's the DJIA dance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fZBaPS_XvQ

Rock on, Janet, baby....

[whopper]

gold being kept in check. guess yen still safe haven? I  heard that shit on BBC biz today

[Downtoolong]

It’s a Yogi Berra market; déjà vu all over again.

[Peter Pan]

It is one thing to try and fix something that is broken but it is quite another to try and stitch back together again a burst balloon.

Even at 9% I would not touch Greek bonds with a forty foot barge pole but then again if you haven't eaten for days (i.e. you are not earning any decent yield) you are likely to eat a dog's vomit out of sheer hunger. And that is what Greek bonds unfortunately are....dog's vomit.

Despite all this the fall on the European and US stock markets haven't deprived investors of anything that wasn't fake anyway so there is no need to see this as anything other than reality snapping back.

[Oldwood]

Don't you just hate it when a "can't lose" casino goes bad? And here I thought everybody is a winner (turns out wiener)

[justmy2cents]

Sell The Fucking Bounce  - STFB all the way baby!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Volkodav]

Going Down

Walter Trout (2012)  start @3:15

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meFag0HtrFw

[Salsipuedes]

Relevant information:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhKqqYuV9MU