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Homebuilder Sentiment Slides, Biggest Miss Since Feb As Buyer Traffic Plunges
Surprise! Having been fooled twice before in the last housing bubble by the NAHB's persistent optimism in the face of dismal realities, it appears October was the beginning of a breaking point in realtor confidence. The headline sentiment index dropped to 54, missing extrapolated expectations of 59, led by a collapse in prospective buyers traffic (from 47 to 41). The headline 54 level is below the lowest estimate of 56 from 52 economists surveyed. Both present and future sales sub-indices also dropped but have no fear, as the NAHB notes, "while there was a dip this month, builders are still positive about the housing market," as cheaper borrowing costs may help draw more prospectiev buyers into the market (umm yeah that hasn't worked).
NAHB sentiment missed by most since Feb...
As NAHB tries to fool us thrice...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Tyler, Nobody is interested. You have to change your article titles for more clicks. Something like this:
Homebuilder Sentiment Slides - Mold on Walls may be EBOLAIs that what caused the 24 point ES move in under 5 minutes. WTF, over!
But hey, I played their game and banked 16pts of that move.
Maybe it was this one - FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks. I don't know for sure.
saints51
+1
I lmao at your headline. So true.
banksters...
John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics:
No. 665: September Retail Sales, PPI October 15th, 2014
• September Retail Sales Declined, August and September Activity Revised Lower and Third-Quarter Broad Growth Slowed Sharply • Unstable Seasonal Factors Helped Push Headline PPI Lower More ...
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Ebola's fault.... or is it Bush's? Who are we blaming again?
i think there is a hurricane somewhere (anywhere) out there ...
Depends? What is catching the short attention span of the American public.
Always blame Bush, if he had been worth a damn he would have sent billions over to Africa to fix this shit! Raycst bastard! While poor Barry is doing all he can to fix Bush's mistakes.
I don't know how anybody can blame Bush. He spent trillions fighting Ebola in Iraq, remember?
Sentiment sliding while mortgage rates tanking?
i'm no "expert", but, uhh, i would say that doesn't sound too good
S&P just moved 20 points in like 3 minutes!
i've sorta given up looking ... dollar, 10yr, dow ... all bouncing like super balls
is that good??
fat finger or glitch
It's called a healthy, functioning market, guy! C'mon!
Now is the time to make a fortune renting tents./s
This should help you.
The top ten ways to increase efficiencies in the tent rental businesshttp://www.teecosolutions.com/the-top-ten-ways-to-increase-efficiencies-...
It was a HOT Sept. Errbody gettin' air conditioners . . .
Fuck'em! Let the home building business die because of the feral Federal Reserve and their thieving ways. Maybe when enough industries suffer people will begin to rise up.
Woooo traffic in contraction goes further into contraction.... Bullish!
october only has 31 days in it this year ...
With all of our youths getting part time jobs after schooling is finished..wether its dropping out of highschool or finishing college...they are not able to buy a house...to many other expenses before they want to sign up for a mortgage...in Colorado its getting credit at you local pot shop...that is priority one....or a new snowboard....
"If this house is so good and the location, location, location is so great in this up and coming neighborhood where Starbucks will soon open a store, then why don't you fuc#ing buy it?"
Say this to any broker trying to sell you a house. Same goes for stocks. Let them eat each other.
They did buy it, now they want out because its eating them alive.
To increase traffic, home builders will be throwing in free Ebola Isolation Rooms!
To WHO specs, of course. ;-)
You heard it here first.
haha!!!
And here we have a decontamination room with engravings of the ebola strain all in stainless steel.
I seriously could hear a real estate agent pitching this hard...lol
+1 Beat me to it :)
They could build entire Ebola only communities...Ebolaville.
Wasted away again in Ebolaville,
Searchin' for my lost respirator.
Some people claim that the CDC's to blame,
But I know it's Obama's fault.
If there is one thing NAHB and thousands of other industry organizations prove over and over it is that people can spin just about anything into a fantasy that suits their interest.
Who says our society isn’t creative anymore. Disney must be green with envy.
Homebuilders really aren't needed now, are they? There is already too much vacant, unsold, mis-priced product on the market.
That's the trouble with how we allocate resources here in the US. At some point, you've built or made enough...time to coast a bit for awhile, let the market absorb the product before you ramp up production again.
But we just keep getting stuck in the 'production' mode. The ones getting rich from producing never want it to stop, or even take a break. So we require constant growth, even if the product languishes on the shelf, so to speak.
Which of course has the expected result of lowering prices. Which the asset holders cannot bear, so they cry for price supports, which discourage the few remaining buyers, causing inventories to soar.
Housing is a great example. It is a common sight where I live to see numerous boarded up, for rent or sale businesses, and new construction on something right next door. Which will also have a "For Sale/Rent" sign on it in 6 months.
Why would a sane person make MORE of something right next to an unsold pile of deteriorating OLD stuff just like it?
All the big home builders should have segued into a 'maintenance-mode" by now...focusing their business on the rehabbing/repair of older properties. Responding to the market instead of trying to create false markets.
My take on the stock market VS the gold market.
The stock market is a bubble with no volume.
A slight drop requires the plunge protection team to save "sentiment".
Just as the CEO of JPM stated recently, the market may drop a few percentage points, or if not it will plunge well beyond 10%. Bloomberg headlined this as "CEO JPM says market will not drop more than 10%."
IE.. JPM slipped and said the plunge protection team will do as they have done and hockey Stick save the market with liquidity if if drops a few points. Maybe smash and bash gold in the comex paper markets too!
What she also said, is if it goes too far, off the cliff we go! Margin calls, reality of a ponzi QE, stock buy back, propaganda fake numbers scamo-rama comes home to roost and down down down we go.
In gold we have the opposite. Record physical demand which just gets heavier with each fake paper price take down. This is physical demand which is more than anything seen in the history books of gold and mankind.
So there you have it folks...
The stock market... The weakest market in history, with the thinest demand and worst fundamentals, sitting at ponzi record highs..
And gold...the strongest market in world history sitting at paper smashed lows..
Place your bets!
You mean the market is deteriorating for $500K crooked dry wall crap housing with no yards?
And THAT'S a no-kidder!
Buying a cheap ass tract home in a former corn field wasn't ever that appealing.
"Realestate Solutions, how can we help you!"
"Yes, we are looking for a place to call home. It should be located where it is less likely to be nuked by future enemies, Ebola free and protected from roaming masses with pitch forks in case of unrest. It should have a space for us to grow our own in case of disruption in food suply, water of course...let's see...well, that should cover it."
"No problem, we have few locations just like that. When we can meet ?"
The only thing needed to spur homebuilding is to make mortgage money availabe to individual homeowner buyers, but this is not going to happen.
"Presumably" (LOL) making money available for homeowner lending was the intention behind bailing out the banks--instead the government gave banks free money with no strings attached. Naturally the banks get far higher return on this free money than lending it out in mortgages to individual homeowners.
The only thing keeping new homebuilders afloat is the fact that anything built financed or refi'd between 1998 and 2008 has it's title screwed by the wall streeters that pretended to create REMIC trusts ... nobody will write title insurance on any of those POS"S unless it covers only ownership since the last foreclosure sale.