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Industrial Production Beats, Rises At Fastest Rate In 4 Years On Air-Conditioning Demand

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The last time Industrial production growth was higher than this was May 2010 as IP rose 1.0% against expectations of a 0.4% rise. Last month's print was revised lower, so we swung from worst in 2014 to best in 4 years. Manufacturing rose at a modest 0.5% but it was Utilities that stole the show, surging 3.9% (due to unseasonably high demand for air conditioning). This is the biggest MoM surge in Utilities for a September in at least 10 years. Not exactly sustainable, unless we once again are at the mercy of the weather for US economic growth.

IP only been better in this recovery in May 2010...

 

... driven entirely by the biggest surge in Utilities since May 2012!

 

Here is what the Fed said: 

"The output of utilities jumped 3.9 percent, an increase that likely reflected unseasonably high demand for air conditioning as temperatures swung from below normal in August to above normal in September."

Which, as the chart below shows, confirms the highest September jump in over 10 years.

So first, the "polar vortex" and now this: it looks as though indeed Global Warming is what the US economy desperately needs.

 

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Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:32 | 5340874 philipat
philipat's picture

It's the waether again. Without weather, the economy would be flying by now...

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:43 | 5340925 NinjaDad
NinjaDad's picture

Maybe next quarter the excuse will be: "Ebola panic driving people to not shop, drive, fly and eat out"

Short anything that involves face-to-face interaction.

Long board game and puzzle manufacturers.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:46 | 5340943 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Our whole damned economy is a puzzle factory right now, thanks to the Fed.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:59 | 5341003 philipat
philipat's picture

So then, not really a puzzle, actually? Just give it a few weeks??

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:33 | 5340881 NinjaDad
NinjaDad's picture

Hold it. I thought weather was supposed to be an excuse, not a tailwind.

I didn't get the Fed memo that the narrative was supposed to change. /s

I'll sell MOAR, thanks.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:34 | 5340883 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

When you don't have a job, you needs to be cool..

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:35 | 5340886 unplugged
unplugged's picture

solar vortex

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:35 | 5340888 youngman
youngman's picture

I thought it was a cooler summer in the USA...

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:39 | 5340909 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It was until late Aug/Sept., then a high pressure dome (hot, humid, no rain) arrived for a couple of weeks in the midwest driving up demand.

It was probably my fault, as I threw down 50 lbs. of grass seed the first of Sept.

 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:39 | 5340911 wmbz
wmbz's picture

It was, but Americans have become such candy asses, they never open a window just switch from running the heat to running the air cooler . I

grew up in the deep south in the 50's with no air cooler, just an attic fan. Somewhow I servived, my nieces and nephews would pass out, can't let the little darlings sweat!

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 10:02 | 5340934 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It depends on what particular piece of propaganda they want to throw at us as to how they present the news. If the summer is hot then global warming is real, if the summer is cool the it's to blame for the terrible economy.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:36 | 5340889 ekm1
ekm1's picture

USA propaganda departments suck.

In communism, they used to be far, far better at misleading and lying, real pros.

 

These guys are amateurs

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:44 | 5340933 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Or, they dont really give a fuck...

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:35 | 5340891 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

"Last month's print was revised lower, so we swung from worst in 2014 to best in 4 years."

Think about how volatile things would be if they didn't bring us the stabilateee 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:37 | 5340899 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn! First the weather, then ebola, and now the weather again. We just can't catch a break.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:37 | 5340900 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

More bad news for markets which want to see the Fed rush in with more free money.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:38 | 5340903 Lostinfortwalton
Lostinfortwalton's picture

Well, in my mid-Atlantic state September was cooler than normal, but not cool enough to turn on the heat. Both the natural gas and the electric bills were very low. I have no idea where these stats come from.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:49 | 5340953 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

They come from Washington DC. /s

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:48 | 5340954 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Good point - Same here

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:41 | 5340912 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

 

temperatures swung from below normal in August to above normal in September.

 

Fuckin LULZ right there!

What are the normal temperatures in August and September so next time we will know what to expect.

Does strong or light winds also temper with the industrial production?

Any ETF to trade temperature - industrial production arbitrages?

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:48 | 5340952 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

The Ebola vortex

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 10:21 | 5341133 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Ebola makes a person sweat. Persons try to avoid sweating by turning on the AC more to keep the dwelling cooler and drier. Ebola causes increased electricity usage, at least until such time as a person assumes room temperature.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 12:42 | 5342061 Shirley Swanepoel
Shirley Swanepoel's picture

And Fema camps need AC for all those sick people...

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:54 | 5340982 headhunt
headhunt's picture

There is such a predictive pattern in that graph that any YOY change is most likely used by the Farmers Almanac.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 09:58 | 5340995 Racer
Racer's picture

Ah that ole chestnut, revise the previous figures lower so this month's can handily beat. Compare unrevised to revised. Apples and oranges. Rinse repeat next month!

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 10:17 | 5341070 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

Instability before a crash. Not exactly unheard of in the world of engineering.

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 10:19 | 5341117 starman
starman's picture

Oh Good Morning America announced this morning that the DOW dropped 460 points on Wednesday do to Ebola!?

No I don't but the wife watches that fng crap! 

Fuck me runing! 

Thu, 10/16/2014 - 13:19 | 5342265 Jab Cross Hook
Jab Cross Hook's picture

All the HVAC guys here in Southern California are busy installing two-ton air conditioner units for pot growers who've discovered their new economy.  So, "yes," article.  Sort of.

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