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Prepare For Epic Volatility: E-mini Liquidity Is Nonexistant
If you thought the last several days were volatile in the market, you ain't seen nothing yet: judging by the early liquidity, or rather complete lack thereof, in the market moving E-Mini contract, the asset class through which as we disclosed a month ago central banks directly manipulate markets with the CME's blessing, then we urge all those who have stop losses close to the NBBO to quietly pull those as they will get hit adversely. The reason? As this Nanex chart of ES orderbook levels show, there is zero, zilch, nada liquidity in the ES (purple line, compare to orange yesterday).
Which means that should yesterday's volumes carry over into today (volumes which were so high, bank dark pools had to rebuff orders as they couldn't handle the order surge) and move a market in which there is virtually no orderbook buffer, the S&P will certainly jump around like a rabid bull on meth.
Said otherwise, if you always wanted to topple the rigged house of cards with a handful of e-eminis, today may be your chance.
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Water water everywhere, but not a drop of water to drink, Bitchezz!!
OT.. and this probably does not mean anything to the markets or anyone..
An Air France plane carrying 183 passengers has been quarantined in Madrid’s Barajas Airport over a passenger showing Ebola-like symptoms. The airport has activated the emergency protocol, local media report.
http://rt.com/news/196516-madrid-ebola-passenger-paris/
play ground is open. come on, kids, plenty of fun to be had
re the OT: what a novel idea to quarantine planes
Markets which can't handle orders, during a time when sentiment is negative...
Muahahahaha
Be positive!
Stay alert!
and we havent even started with the consequences of the derivative trigger points unleashed by the last few weeks volatility and decouplings.
How many billions do you think need to be paid by counterparties to oil drops under $85 ? I bet there's plenty of playaz thought oil would never drop back that low again. Then theres the strong $US derivatives triggered. Even volatility index derivatives. Failure of resumption of QE derivatives. Can someone draw up a list? Oh, thats right they cant because this sort of shenanigans is TOTALLY FUCKING UNREGULATED
Probably the biggest one is interest rate swaps. Every single basis point in the 10 year US treasury has about $2.5 billion dollars moving with it. I've been talking for a while about certain banks being in huge trouble if the 10 year goes above 3%; well, there are a couple of other banks that are in huge trouble if it goes below 2% for any meaningful length of time.
And now out will come the volatility gamblers day-trading options, the vast majority of who will go home singing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE
Liquidity providers aka Algos....all scram away when PROFITABILITY, not LIQUIDITY is non-existant for them.
Yes.. if the trading platforms will actually work during a sell off or an unwind that is.
You raise a great point, they do always seem to "break down" when you need them most. Its really weird.
Command and control markets baby ;)
seems to me the time has arrived to fixate on gold. now that is a buy the fcuking dip i can start to embrace...
seriously, the time has finally arrived, only fly in da oint is deflation, but only as manipulated...
It wouldn't have to be regulated if the playaz in the game didn't have implicit government backing because they are too big to fail. If they could fail all parties would protect their own interests and price actual risk rather than play with monopoly money.
Ok, I am sure we are fucked... Is that better?
"A rabid bull on meth". Very nice, Tyler!
I had a bull at my ranch..and in the spring he would eat the wild mushrooms.....and boy did he get wierd.....lol
Know all about those Shrooms Dude.
shrooms, exploring the corners of da mind, ha, oh to be 20 again, not a fucking care in the world, certainly wouldn't be giving a shit about this crap...,ha
We coined a phrase:
"The most fun you will ever have throwing up."
pods
lol, da truth...
Throw in some beer and cow tipping and you've got yourself a partay!
That was from the peyote not mushrooms.... or maybe I was doing them wrong?
Well, check it out. My dog has a propensity for eating cow shit. In the spring, when the mushrooms come up in the poop, he becomes one weird, weird little fucker. His eyes become completely dilated, he'll develop this stange paralysis, and his head sort of wobbles around. At first, I was concerned and watched him closely, but he wasn't in any pain, and I had the strange sense he was enjoying himself, so I saved a trip to the vet and just said, "bon appetite!".
awesome story!
yes, I'm sure it was your dog. ;)
"A rabid bull on meth".
in a glass shop...
C' mon fat fingers.......
You don't "activate" a protocol.
The protocol is the protocol. "You follow it...or die."
sometimes your military past shows a bit more strongly. no, military protocols are generally an euphemism for "unmentionables"
The only active protocol is the Protocols of the Elders(Creators) of Ebola. Their plan seems to be moving along swimmingly.
But, but, but.......HFT is going to be there to provide liquidity. Right??
drawing from the dark, dark pools, of course
...despite all the protestations of tin-foil-hat-wearing-digital-dickweeds!
A drop in E-Mini liquidity has many advantages for the NYFED desk. It allows them to achieve their aims with alot less firepower.
said another way, the low for today will be the open
You must be new at this, as you apparently don't know how the Fed operates. First they run it up until the maximum amount of sucker money is all in, then they take it down and clean them out. Vegas on steroids bro.
ironic, isn't it, that there is shortage of fake paper notes to sustain the fake stocks and bonds? being as it's all fake anyway, why don't they just give all the traders crayons and coloring books and they can use their imaginations to create new and exciting financial instruments.
Did that in 08. Welcome to the party and pull up a chair.
Game changer:
"Lockheed Martin Corp said on Wednesday it had made a technological breakthrough in developing a power source based on nuclear fusion, and the first reactors, small enough to fit on the back of a truck, could be ready for use in a decade."
fusion is always a decade away going back 60 years. They claim to have a novel way of modulating the magnetic torus in response to the fluxating plasma, or maybe it was something about the flux capacitor.
O ya there is koolaid in the corner and don't forget your s&p 2000 party hat. Did you see that sharks in the dark pool color job soros is doing. The use of red is just amazing.
they would probably
eat the crayons .....
to the moon! Anyone know the conference call number to listen to what the oligarchs have decided.
It's gotta be 937-338-2533.
I think it is 867-5309...
Looks like today will be fun. I stack, and sit back.
This graph is beautiful. Is it suitable for framing?
It's better than many post-modern art pieces.
Ahh, full of emotion.
we will see more bankrupt companies
Countdown Bitchez
I bet there is lots of LIQUIDITY in trader's SHORTS this morning, and throughout the day!
Wouldn't bother tryin to short these equity mkts here...from what I'm hearing, there is p&l damage out there on a similar scale to Lehman...there WILL be a policy response as mkts cannot be allowed to rebalance. Think ECB will get Germans to cave V shortly and you're gonna see something big from them...the alternative is system collapse in europe...spreads are blowing out and embedded leverage so huge it will kill European banks...
totally agree there is going to be a line shot up the middle shortly..... about 500 straight up on the dow.... I think it will be from China though not the ECB in the short term.... if your short time to move up the stops.
Economic collapse coming to the US. Don't get distracted by other events. Rex 84 coming next.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XA_yW7Z5OM
Its all good. For those directly invested in this mess, this must be everything you had hoped for...the excitement, the thrill, the really dead feeling in the pit of your stomach with the realization that you have been fucked...again. For many of the rest of us, we too have similar feelings. The sense of our worst fears coming to reality has some thrill, yet we too feel that dead feeling. Shit will only get worse, slowly at first and then all of the sudden.
My brother works for a TBTF bank as a finacial advisor and he bought the dip big time yesterday. He was psyched and felt really smart as the S&P rallied into the close. He said, "I got in right at the low." We'll see..
Around 1813 is 10% down on the ES. It will be interesting to see if there is resistance there.
There could be a new HBO (E)mini series coming soon: "Rig this House."
ECB or someone certainly came in steadied BTP and French bonds earlier, FTSEMIB was down 1000 points earlier, also GS down 4$ after their results but Dow has climbed back 80 points somehow, guess we either collapse but feels though a rip your face off ramp may be on the cards...DAX has climbed back 120 points this morning, some entitly if definitely buying some thing here, but why would you BEWARE.
The company that was going to make saphire crystal screens for Apple failed. I want to IPO the same company but this time to make screens for Samsung phones. If that one fails then HTC is next. Aren't american markets wonderful?
I heard some background on that story. It would seem that GT couldn't afford their lease or some such so they convinced Apple to buy the facility. Everyone knows that Apple broke them by not buying the glass. Now all the equipment and IP is in a building owned by Apple and the company is in C11. Gosh, I wonder what the next play is Apple.
btfc -buy the fucking crash
You want liquidity? You can't handle liquidity!
Just think if Alibaba was going public this week....TPTB kept the markets cool until that went off....now its playtime...they made their millions on the issue....so now they need the markets volitile to make their moves now..GS needs a good quarter
Buy the shit hand over fist.
<<< Stawks
<<< Gold
What happens when the PPT [Plunge Protection Team] can't keep prices up with their manipulation? What happens when [not if] a group of large institutions get indigestion and each try and sell 10,000 ES at the market at the same time? Your protective stop is not so "protective" anymore.
www.traderzoo.mobi
That all depends does it now. If the PPT has unlimited ability to type 1s and 0s then they can easily just buy everything. At some point the owners of the Fed will own, well, everything inlcuding future production (via interest).
Is it illiquid because the Fed owns every contract?
<<< This is it. Financial meltdown looming.
<<< AOK, just BTFD.
TLT flash smashed through 127 briefly yesterday. Good times.
Yes, we have no bananas, we have no bananas today...
Most investors think that even if things go downhill fast that they will be smart enough to get out of the markets. After the debacle in 2008 where they saw the market do nasty and violent swings they learned a few things, this time they figure they will make the right moves before it is to late. But what if it hits like the flash crash on steroids?
For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below you will find more on why this scenario could happen. We know that can't happen because circuit breakers have been put in place to arrest panic style moves, but imagine a market that falls, trade is halted, and the market simply does not reopen for days, or even weeks.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/flash-crash-on-steroids.html
my mood has went from exhuberance about this epic failure to "i hardly give a shit"....
No worries. It's all part of the plan.
"There is scarce a king in a hundred who would not, if he could, follow the example of Pharaoh—get first all the people’s money, then all their lands, and then make them and their children servants for ever."
-Ben Franklin, "Dangers of a Salaried Bureaucracy", 1787
http://www.bartleby.com/268/8/12.html
I guess e-mini liquidity is doing a Keyser Soze.
Gwandma Janet better coo up those little cherry-red clit-seeking lips into a cute little 'O' and make everything better. That's what court eunuchs are for ... to provide neutral stabilitee ...
Mmmmmmmmmmm...quarantine planes??? THAT'S what happened to MH370!
Go on Fed and Fed apologists. Go take a nice long swim in the toxic shit soup you've created.
if "the market" is down it is only because the ny fed wants it that way. there is no market, there is only old yeller.
quarantine life, put you in a tiny box, here little one come have a handout....
These are unusual times calling for unusual actions in unusual ways.
We have many tools in our basket to accommodate these unusual times.
Some of the tools are tools which allow us to create new tools when unusual times arise.
It is not unusual that unusual tools usually come into play during these unusual times.
For instance, the new tool which enriches all the FED “tools” during these unusual times.
That is usually what happens!
hoe cum red makes me happy? hehe
The talking heads on CNBC just told me everything is just fine.. just a bad day at the market.
-That's all Folks-
Netflix down a hundred. Nothing to see here!
"Said otherwise, if you always wanted to topple the rigged house of cards with a handful of e-eminis, today may be your chance."
Let's push it over.
Which contract do you cats want to focus on?
Short the hole. Brilliant.
off subject but worthy of mention: OO buck 12 gauge has an effective range of 40 yds for sure. 9 nice sized pellets blazed through a large cardboard box with a ok spread. iT could be my last stand if it ever gets to that "point in tyme"...JUST SAYIN.
Alibaba offers a good quality, attractively designed, Nerf Super-Soaker that can reach targets up to 38 feet away.
Alibaba also offers acetone in kilo size along with decorative flare guns in both metal or plastic to make the package complete.
Pattern will depend on if you have a full choke or 18" tactical barrel... either way i would not want to be in the line of fire...
So Gold and Silver that were a safe haven yesterday getting slammed to day? LOL
BTFD, i've bought a little each of the last three weeks. If it stays at current levels or lower keep stackin'...
light crude
is going to hit
the 70's handle today....
Not today but you will be proven right eventually. And when it does, assuming it stays there, the shale play will dry up like a popcorn fart...
Craemer just said with these job numbers, if it weren't for ebola, the markets would be ramping to the sky. Whew, I feel so much better! All we have got to do is beat a global pandemic killer and the markets will take care if themselves.
Green shoots, bitchez!
Cramer can bite me...
Dow's biggest component, VISA up $4 looks like they are going for a rampjob here
Some of the bigger HFT CTA's have scaled back their feeds due to voliatility limits and PnL hits. Simple as that. Sucks to throw darts and lose money
For all the fooltards who say "technical analysis doesn't work" or "doesn't work in rigged markets" the truth is, in fact, that this is technical analysis and it's showing how broken or rigged markets actually work.
Thank you again Eric Hunsader.