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"Some Falling Knives Are Not Meant To Be Caught"
Yesterday afternoon saw the world and his asset-gathering mum surging to business media TV to calm their commission-paying customers that all-is-well, the worst is over, BTFD, and "see, stocks have made a bottom" as equities surged marginal-call-squeeze-driven into the close. However, they forgot that Europe would open again... As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes, "not all falling knives are meant to be caught" noting that the drip, drip of troubling news overcame the desire to pick an extreme and wait for verbal intervention. There is lots of commentary about overbought bonds and oversold stocks but with five different Fed speakers set to jawbone today, we suspect confusion will be the order of the day.
Via Bloomberg's Richard Breslow,
Depending on when you got up, things were bubbling along nicely, then suddenly everything went bump, and another nasty selloff hit equity prices; if 1,000 cuts can slow you down, imagine 1,000 stabs, the drip, drip of troubling news overcame the desire to pick an extreme and wait for verbal intervention, Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow writes.
One of the reasons we are in this position was highlighted by RBI’s Rajan: Central banks should focus on the short end, allow the long end to take care of itself; one thing we’ve done is try to manage the long-end; has unintended consequences which are now playing out because no one can figure how we get 10Y below 2% back to some normal level, anyone who got stopped out in Treasuries yesterday knows they are overbought, that is part of the problem
FED: Five different policy makers speaking today, will likely leave us with the conclusion that they are as confused as we are; may think they are calming the markets, but the only ones pacified are the computers searching out catch phrases
OVERBOUGHT BONDS: Lots of commentary how bonds are overbought, technicals at extreme levels, signal tactical shorts, strategic shorts; everyone knows they are overbought, no need to point that out when people have been crucified; if UST futures are going to collapse, missing first two points is not going to kill you and may save your life if they don’t go down anytime soon, definition of a strong trend is staying over bought/sold for a long period
Advising people to sell here ignores reality that they’ve sold many times, as I stare out at the pelting rain, I wonder how much powder is staying dry
When calculating how much risk you are taking, vol is one of the crucial components, with increased vol, market is having very difficult time re-evaluating its risk tolerance levels and strategy to deal with it
Sticking with what seemed to work for previous five years; this is a very difficult adjustment process and has a lot to do with fact that we are incredibly computer oriented, these markets aren’t going to be normal until this decays out of the time series
* * *
With liquidity non-existent, we suspect deja vu all over again today.
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Bullshit, Gartner's got your back!
Now that's funny; I don't care who you are.
Bloomberg article: MOAR PRINTING:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/yellen-gets-swedish-lessons-fro...
hahahaha stupid fucks
I asked the other day would be 16 15 or 14000 before the FED started printing again. Bunch of fucking cunts picked the highest number. How pathetic are they?
With news of either extened Qe3 or new Qe4 all is good in the hood again. BTFD boys BTFD
This Ebola thing is the real deal "preppers." Here's some sage advice: don't take the subway.
...or get vaccinated
Invisible hand at work https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1413489600000&chddm=765&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NASDAQ:ZIV&cmptdms=0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&ntsp=1&ei=DOE_VMCiM4rLiQKv9oG4Ag
I wonder if these people sleep at night, knowing the only people falling for it are middle class senior citizens. You won't see rich people like Warren Buffet get pulled into this scam. This is almost as bad as those TV evangelists who prey on desperate people.
Right now Buffet is about 55 billion in cash. Kinda makes you wonder .....
What like silver?
I should have bought stawks in 2010 instead of silver.
It's funny. If you read articles even today the silver-bugs are just as bullish as ever. I guess that nervana point of the dollar collapsing and silver going to the moon are always just around the corner.
Note to silver bugs. Carefully examine any chart that a writer shows you as proof that silver is cheap. They usually leave out something. I am not saying silver is expensive; I am just pointing out the bias.
Has anybody here seen the long bond future move 5 1/2 points in one day? I don't think they did that even on Black Monday 1987. Yesterday was historic, I think.
Volitility increased on the UPSIDE just like Albert Edwards said they would here on ZH...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-09/albert-edwards-asks-if-bond-vol-can-surge-result-rising-bond-pricesI'll becha all 5 will mention extending QE in different manners. Right now they are behind the curtain rehearsing their scripts.
QE what?
supply problem
and earlier QEs suffered a bit of wrath if did not meet Mr Market expectations ... Bernanke last go round "smart" enough not to put limits on QE ... length and amount of $85 billion/month subject to change as FOMC saw fit.
At THIS point i don't think Mr Market will be happy with anything less than $100 billion/month into some point far into the future.
So many doves speaking so dovishly today, even floating jawbone trial balloons of "maybe more asset purchases."
Not that any 24hr/7/30 period really matters except for HFT, but I'll laugh my ass off if we close below 16000/1850 today, despite the soothing Fed speak.
this is what the mantra of "leave it to the markets, always" and "markets are always right" brings you. an utter belief that markets are, well, "markets", i.e. absolutely the same "markets" independently if managed by people or bots, transparent or with dark pools, uninfluenced or drugged by QE, lawful or the den of criminals, with regulated banks or utterly insane unregulated megabanks, with sensible laws or those that allow derivatives of all kinds
"When calculating how much risk you are taking, vol is one of the crucial components, with increased vol, market is having very difficult time re-evaluating its risk tolerance levels and strategy to deal with it"
vol is not risk. risk is supposed to be a price component, not prices going up and down. a theoretically perfect market does not go up and down like a yoyo
"Sticking with what seemed to work for previous five years; this is a very difficult adjustment process and has a lot to do with fact that we are incredibly computer oriented, these markets aren’t going to be normal until this decays out of the time series"
and this was already a problem when young traders thought they "know it all". bots are worse then that, and it takes a lot to be worse then that
Revenue streams in this economy are evaporating quickly. That's what happens when you allow the guy upriver to build a huge dam. All that power he promised you ends up being more expensive than you were led to believe, and now your own water supply is drying up...
And of course you assumed that he even knew how to construct a proper dam in the first place, and NOW you're discovering he DIDN'T, and the whole thing is threatening to go any minute, which will wipe you out completely.
The 5 elitist sociopaths speaking today have one thing in common. Along with massivie hubris, they all think they have a plan for achieving endless economic propsperity. The market will finish up today.
My jaw hurts.
I can't believe Bullard suggested not ending QE; I can believe it, but the part of me craving sanity can't.
I'm pretty sure the FED now owes every taxpaying legal citizen of the U.S. $4 Million tax free.
why can't you believe it? the same crowd is suggesting to us eurozoners to QE, QE, and QEmoar. for years. you did read the ZH articles
Step right up for the Fed jawboneappaloosa!
"If you like your money, you can keep your.... no...wait. That's not right....
LINE!!"
- Barry Soetoro, sometime tomorrow
The odds favor that falling knives will continue falling. Why? Because the primary trend of the market turned bearish on October 10th, as explained here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/10/dow-theory-update-for-october...
While nothing is carved in stone, technically US stocks are in a very difficult juncture.
"anyone who got stopped out in Treasuries yesterday knows they are overbought",
moron
will look for more words of "wisdom" from breslow
I catch falling knives with my dick
You must be Jewish (home-style Bar Mitzvah?), or The Most Interesting Man In The World.