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What Americans Are Thinking (And Asking) About The Fed
Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,
When will the Fed... Raise rates? Stop buying bonds? End quantitative easing? Common questions, those, from Wall Street to Main Street. And – apparently – the online world as well, because they also reflect (literally) what Google autofills when individuals pose inquiries about future monetary policy action in the famously simple Google search box.
Since Google’s autofill algorithm constantly updates commonly entered completions for the most typically searched phrases, it provides telling insight into what Americans are thinking and asking about the Fed. And because Fed related inputs are broader than the more geographically sensitive such as “Movie theater in…” or “Shopping mall in…”, completions offered by the search engine are based on larger populations. Don’t worry - we checked. Here are some of the top autofills that followed our unfinished queries:
“The Fed Will...” Three out of the top four autofills reads “Never taper”, “Not taper”, and “Never stop QE”. The Fed is on track to close out its bond buying program this month, but after almost six years with three shades of QE, it seems the public is reluctant to believe it.
“The Fed is...” Second on the list shows Americans classifying our central bank as “behind the curve”. Autofills may highlight the perception of the Fed as dovish, but not rightly so for those typing the phrase into Google’s search box. In fact, an input of “I want the Fed to” elicits “decrease money supply”.
“Interest rates will...” This phrase conjured mixed responses of “rise” and “go up”, and “fall in 2014” and “never rise”. The third wager is highly unlikely based on fed funds futures, which signal a rise in mid-2015; the question isn’t a matter of direction, but when the grind higher begins.
“Low interest rates are...” “Here to stay” autofilled first, yet “bad for the economy” and “bad” trail behind. Even still, “economic growth” and “economic recovery” appear next to “low interest rates help”. Near-zero rates may have helped stimulate the economy during the early years of the sluggish recovery, but Americans also understand that maintaining these low levels for too long could act as an impediment. “Higher interest rates will help” produce “economy” and “the economy”.
“The economy is...” Besides the doomsayers autofill of “going to implode”, “getting better” and “improving” appear. On the labor market front, “Jobs are…” produce “not enough”, “hiring”, and “hard to find”. An entry of “Wages have” paints the gloomy picture of wage inflation: “not kept up with inflation”, “not increased”, “not stagnated”, “remained stagnant”, and “stagnated”. These tensions underscore the Fed’s patience when it comes to normalizing rates.
Just as Google autofills offers a unique view on how Americans negotiate monetary policy, the Beige Book captures the economic sentiment of each regional Fed District. This information proves particularly useful in gauging the Fed’s decisions since it colors each district’s respective Fed President. Given his or her spot on the Federal Open Market Committee, we provide customary analysis of the report after it is released eight times a year. Please continue reading for our takeaways of the Federal Reserve’s “Current Economic Conditions”.
Although the Fed continued to describe economic growth as “modest” and “moderate”, the pace of growth remained largely unchanged across districts. With that said, many districts experienced “slight” to “moderate” growth in consumer spending, cited strong tourism activity, and noted retailers’ positive outlook for the balance of the year. Nonfinancial services, transportation services, and manufacturing activity also fared better in most districts. Additionally, commercial construction, real estate activity, and banking conditions—particularly commercial loan volumes—improved across most regions.
These steady trends carry over into the two components we watch most closely—inflation and the labor market—which also showed slight improvement or little change. According to the Fed, the state of employment generally stayed the same from the prior Beige Book. Finding skilled workers continued to prove most challenging for many districts, but once again helped the other half of the Fed’s “Dual Mandate”, at least in terms of increased wage pressure for some industries and professions. However, price levels were mostly reported as “unchanged” or “up slightly”.
Given the cautious tenor of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from last week, central bank monetary policy will likely echo this report in remaining mostly unchanged. Despite the strength of the most recent jobs report, FOMC minutes showed the Fed’s concern about the impact of slow global growth on the U.S. economic recovery. This worry has riled financial markets for over the past week, and recent U.S. economic data, such as today’s weak retail sales number and negative reading for producer prices, will encourage the Fed to stay patient with respect to raising near-term interest rates.
Beige Book Summary: Overall national economic activity continued to expand in September and October, according to the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book released today. Six of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts experienced “moderate” economic growth during the reporting period, while five Districts noted “modest” expansion and Boston’s economic conditions were described as “mixed”. In terms of labor market conditions, growth in employment, wages, and prices remained mostly unchanged. Employers continued to struggle finding skilled workers, which put some upward pressure on wages in certain industries and professions. What does this mean for monetary policy going forward?
While Beige Book findings suggest the U.S. economy continues to improve, this report clearly does not portend a rise in short-term rates over the near future. Given widespread global growth concerns, a large contributor to today’s market sell-off, the Fed will likely wait to see how the slowdown in Europe and China impact the U.S. economic recovery, as touched upon in the latest FOMC minutes.
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Bullshit! 99% doesn't have a clue what the FED is!
Or the DTCC or CEDE and Company
Better yet, the Fed has no clue what the Fed is.
my buddy's ex-wife makes $80 hourly on the computer . She has been fired from work for 7 months but last month her pay check was $19252 just working on the computer for a few hours. see here http://goo.gl/yioYBZ
Hey you all! I am looking for that report that came out a while back by some central bank researchers showing how reserves are not drawn down or affected when new loans are issued. Something about how money is created is not how people think. Anybody know what I'm talking about or am I going nuts? (well actually I already know that much).
I'm wondering how those parasites managed to control the world.
oh, that's right, through babylonian money majic, courtesy of their god, satan.
This Amerikan is thinking about why we should ABOLISH THE FERAL RESERVE SYSTEM!
This whole piece is crap.
The Fed exists to goose the stock market, serve the Banks/Primary Dealers/Financiers, and perform whatever tasks are necessary to preserve the fortunes of the 1%. Period!
Their supposed dual mandate is to maintain low unemployment and stable inflation (prices). Well, since both are being accomplished without QE - why extend QE? Of course, these statements are based on data coming from the Gov't/Fed.
The answer though: QE is being essentially announced as being extended because the stock market will crash without it. As inarguably demonstrated by Bullard's statement at about 10:30 today and the markets astonishing turnabout starting around 10:30am today.
Ever think of the possiblity that the 1% are positioned for the next crash? Fed controlled or not? So they stand to make a fortune on the way down just as well. Where was the Fed during the last two 50% haircuts in the market over the past 15 years? Huh? Were these both Fed directed crashes? If so, then what's to stop them from crashing the market again given this scenario in order to hand the 1%ers another fortune on the way down? You can't have it both ways. If the Fed exists to hand fortunes to the 1% then they must have made a killing in the previous two crashes. And they would again in the next one. Bottom line, nothing guarantees the Fed will prop the market up forever. Not when it's time for the next crash.
i guess my input to "I want to Fed to.." did not make the list, though i personally typed in "suck my dick" over ten thousand times.
If you happen to be in Chicago, a powerful documentary film is opening October 24: The Principle. (https://www.facebook.com/theprinciplemovie). In The Principle, top scientists (Lawrence Krauss, Michio Kaku, Max Tegmark, George Ellis, and others) talk about amazing new evidence that indicate that The Copernican Principle is invalidated. The universe may be much, much different than most people imagine, and the implications are astounding.
we should spam that xD they will read it=)
Heads Up !
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No disaster in Dallas
Americans are economic illiterates and aren't thinking a thing beyond when is my SNAP card being filled. The fact that Google auto filled your query doesn't neccesarily translate into Americans asking those questions. It means a relatively few people who are paying some attention are asking. The vast majority are googling the next iGadget or how not to get e...(insert latest MSM scare here).
Enola Gay?
Enough to eat?
Enzyte for ED?
All wrong? "Sorry, I don't have time for hobbies like watching the news like you do."
...Yeah, that is an actual quote from someone at a customer of ours. Ironically, he works at a...
bank.
LOLOLOL
(silence)
That's the sound of an American thinking.
An endless stream of gibberish... "Er, Ah, Um, Eh"
That's the sound of an Englishman thinking.
A 'Pop' as of a cork being removed followed by pouring and a few deep swallows...
That is the sound of a Frenchman thinking.
An exhuberant flapping of clothing as a result of wild gesticulation...
That is the sound of an italian thinking.
"Bier Hier! Bier Hier, Oder Ich Fall Um!"
That is the sound of a German thinking.
Just because what you said might be true does not mean that it is the only thing that is true.
Though I personnally believe the sound of most Americans thinking can best be described as, "Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter-accusations."
This is what is done in American society while a person develops a more cogent response to an uncomfortable point.
In common society that sounds like, "Bullshit! That's not true at all! You just made that shit up to..."
In the upper crusts the same formula almost always invovles an Appeal To Authority fallacy such as, "There is a consensus among experts that... But some would rather engage in (fill in the blank: conspiracy, reactivity, regressive acts, racism, etc...)
Regardless, it seems to me that silence is actually appropriate when thinking.
Usually the it is the Swedes who are the kings of the long silence while thinking in the midst of a conversation.
Or you could tell a joke and use the resultant laughter as an opportunity to think.
Anagram for "Federal Reserve Bank" is Berserk Fevered Anal.
Where is...
Chuck Norris!!
I'm not asking any of those questions. I'm just asking when PMs will finally be worth much more than so many aluminum pull-tabs? How much longer can PM prices be suppressed? People are telling me, "Buy silver! It's a real bargain!" Yeah, I guess it would be -- IF I had who-knows-how-many years to wait for the price suppression scheme to fail. I don't have years, or decades.
Well then it would seem you are screwed.
Buy low, sell high. If you don't believe that mantra then by all means go all in on stocks. If you do buy into it then look at the situation objectively and figure what asset has a low price to value or best, and most likely, potential upside. If you find somethng better than metals with a similar amount of risk then please do write back and advise us all.
Chinese consumers bought 2,000 tons of gold in the last year. That is 1/4 of what the US Gov. claims to possess as the number one gold holder in the world. In one single year...
Google's autofills are tailored to your IP, geographic location, past searches, and other creepy factors they won't tell us. Mine read differently than yours on the first one, though most of the others are the same.
Spot on.
I tried a few of those on another search engine (duckduckgo) and came up with:
the fed will raise rates
the fed will destroy the world
the fed will fail and take the private economy with it: david stockman
the fed is unconstitutional
the fed is not a government agency
the fed is intended to be controlled by
interest rates will go up
interest rates will fall
interest rates will never go up
etc., etc., etc.
Never trust Google to reflect sentiment.
My autofill results:
(I love the sequence in which the options are presented)
The fed will taper
The fed will not taper
The fed will never taper
The fed will never end qe
The fed will fail
It is hard to disagree with you.
Correct. So if someone is more likely, based on their past searches and cookies, to search for "The Fed will never end QE", then that is what is likely to display over "The Fed will end QE." The author needs to use Google Trends!
It's true that they locate your IP. With me, you have ZeroHedge and PornHub. Is there something else that I should be looking at that they need to figure out? So they learned that I was an asshole and I like pussy. Probably a common "discovery" these days.
Most Americans don't even know what the FED is, or if they do, that it is a private bank set up for banks to rob the public treasury, punish savers, and ensure low wages.
You beat me to it ebworthen. Very succint.
But, but, they say they do this to have price stabeeelity and full employment? It's called federal for a reason, don't you know???
a us $heeple /no sarc
Abolish the Fed? It’s about time.
But it also involves several planet-wide problems. To abolish the Fed would also involve annihilation of the dollar, which serves as the world’s reserve currency.
Clearly, to carry out our mission, we need also to provide an alternative currency.
Who will do it… and why is it necessary?
Let’s take these in reverse order.
The necessity arises because of the nature of government debt: it is the process by which one generation of tax consumers, or several, financially cannibalizes following generations of tax payers.
It is, in other words, the process by which men cannibalize their children and grandchildren – a practice that should not be tolerated by civilized men.
When governments attempt to do this without the aid of central banks, this cannibalization can go on for perhaps one generation, no more than two. But, with the aid of central banks, it can go on, so far, for five or more generations before the Piper delivers his invoice.
Today, there is enough government debt on the books to cannibalize following generations of Americans to the end of time. I arrive at this conclusion by using data, assumptions and formulas provided by Financial Reports of the US government. See my article, Bad News…
This is why the Federal Reserve must be abolished.
Now, how is it to be done?
That is a very big question; and I would suggest that no one make the attempt until they have studied several factors that must be included in any effort toward that end.
Why should you consider my words? I’ve been there; I made the attempt, and made several huge mistakes; you don’t, in other words, want to make the same mistakes I made.
Some 45 years ago, I discovered that the country was occupied by cutthroats and bandits, and that their main instrument of plunder was the Federal Reserve. I reasoned that, as long as we used their scrip, we financed our own destruction. So I established a gold-based banking service and operated it for 28 years. As noted, I made several mistakes: number one mistake was that I failed to collect the power to protect my company before establishing it: the reason for this failure was that the needed knowledge was not then available, and I had to recover it from original and unsanitized history and law books.
The second great mistake was that I failed to account for several factors that have to be included in the formula for a new, reality-based, currency, see my article, What Price Gold… $7000… $14000…?
It really doesn’t matter whether we take active measures or not to abolish the Fed. One way or the other, the Fed will destroy itself; we don’t need to waste effort in that direction.
Our attention would be much more profitable if we focused on providing an alternative; without this alternative we will be carried away along with everyone else by the financial disaster that looms over us. With the effort, we might survive and profit from it.
There is, you see, reason for haste.
I would like to propose a replacement currency, issued by God, coined by anyone or no one, called 'The Aurum'.
All costs related to this effort should go to the invention, production, and dissemination of convenient consumer essaying devices using a variety of means, to authenticate the Aurums they receive in payment.
The Fed's PUBLIC mandate is to maintain low unemployment and stable prices.
But the adjustments to the Birth-Death-Model as well as the ever-changing definition of 'unemployed' tells us how they really do that.
And the ever-changing definition of the CPI tells us how they actually perform the second mandate.
It should also be noted that the Private Federal Reserve banks also have the mandate to support the biggest banks with an 'elastic currency'.
Of course, the two public mandates are only served if the private 'elastic currency' mandate means a static money supply and severe restrictions, high reserve requirements and onerous disclosure requirements for fractional reserve banks.
It is obvious which of the mandates the Fed, both public and private portions, actually serves.
I'm an American q99x2 and here is what I think. Why don't they have those treasonous traitors locked up down in Guantanamo Bay giving them the old water board until they tell who or what is their ringmaster. Whatever that thing is it needs to be arrested too.
They? Who is this they of whom you speak?
Why don't you...
Tell the hookers and coke dealers to buy something and quit holding all the money. Right now the hookers only buy coke and the dealers only buy hookers.
So the best way to get rich is to be a hooker and a drug dealer so you can pay yourself for both transactions.
One thing is clear regardless of what you call it the "Federal Reserve Nightmare" or the "Yellen conundrum", the box Ben Bernanke made when he painted both himself and the Federal Reserve in a corner remains. Bernanke has by passing the chairmanship to Yellen escaped from the QE trap but left the rest of us fully in its grasp.
With a policy of loose and cheap money and an inflation target of just 2% the Federal Reserve continues to please those gambling that not fighting the Fed guarantees profits. I wish someone would let the Fed know we have already passed their inflation target and things are not getting better.
As many Americans are forced to pay higher food, gasoline, and health insurance premiums any thought that inflation is not higher has come from the false illusion brought from lower payments on things like auto loans and mortgages. This is a one off and the benefits of the QE policy are on the wane. Trouble lurks ahead. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/06/exit-strategy-from-qe-remains-elu...
Im not 100% convinced bout the article.
For one thing..seems like there were as many positives as there were negatives during the search.
The other thing one should wonder is ...the fact that google is aCorporate giant gathering data..sharing its info with big bro..etc. whos to say they dont 'populate' certain serches into certain directions to sway public opinion?.. ya know like polls..and news in general.
Whatevs.
Ringading mf'ing ding.
Google is absolutely useful to TPTB in both gathering info and directing eyes to preferred results.
The first question most Americans ask is, what is the Fed?
I know what I think of the FED.
"25 Year Great Depression Coming" Prepare Accordingly. http://moneymorning.com/is-the-u-s-federal-reserve-covering-up-a-massive-debt-crisis/