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Peak Ebola? Even Goldman Is Now Warning About The Ebola Fear Factor

Tyler Durden's picture




 

News about the spread of the Ebola virus has been an increasing focus for market participants in recent days. Despite rising media coverage, Ebola seems to have had little discernible effect on consumer sentiment to date. However, as Goldman Sachs notes, the "fear factor" associated with Ebola appears more significant than in past instances of pandemic concern. While expert opinion sees the likelihood of a significant outbreak of Ebola in the US as very low, it is likely any negative macroeconomic consequences are most likely to be transmitted through fear or risk-aversion channels.

 

Via Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius,

News about the spread of the Ebola virus has increasingly been a focus for market participants in recent days. Prompted by client questions, our equity analysts have written on the effect of Ebola on airline stocks in the US and Europe, as well as hotel and cruise line stocks. The most important cost of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been the tragic and rising loss of human lives. In today's Daily, however, we focus on the potential for broader US macroeconomic effects of Ebola fears.

Exhibit 1 shows that public concern about Ebola—as reflected in Google searches—spiked around the time the WHO declared an Ebola emergency in August and again after the first case was reported in the US at the end of September. However, despite rising public interest in the disease, there has been no discernible effect on high frequency measures of consumer sentiment. The daily Rasmussen confidence index has been relatively range-bound since early September. The daily economic confidence index from Gallup (not shown) has actually risen over this period.

Despite limited impact on consumer sentiment to date, the "fear factor" associated with Ebola appears more significant than past instances of pandemic concern. A recent Gallup poll revealed that 22% of Americans worried about personally contracting the disease. This is similar to the percent of respondents who worried about contracting the swine flu virus in 2009, even though the number of confirmed cases of swine flu in the US was orders of magnitude higher at that time. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll indicated that two-thirds of Americans were worried about an Ebola epidemic in the US.

In contrast, expert opinion suggests that the likelihood of a significant Ebola outbreak in the US is remote. President Obama summed up this sentiment at a recent press conference, stating that "the dangers of a serious outbreak are extraordinarily low." Not being epidemiologists, we assume that expert opinion is correct, as a baseline scenario. As such, the probability of a disaster such as the 1918 Spanish Flu—which killed an estimated 675,000 Americans and coincided with a recession—appears low at this stage. Instead, we focus on potential negative macroeconomic consequences transmitted through fear or risk-aversion related channels, such as avoidance of airplane travel or mass transit more generally, or reduced shopping activity due to fear of public places.

Exhibit 2 shows the behavior of two metrics, retail sales in the left panel and tourist arrivals (as a proxy for willingness to fly) in the right panel. Each line represents a different example of pandemic concern or heightened travel/public space-related risk aversion, with each line indexed to 100 in the month immediately before the precipitating event or outbreak. Recent episodes of pandemic concern in the US—including SARS in 2003, bird flu (H5N1) in 2005, and swine flu (H1N1) in 2009—resulted in little if any discernible effect on retail sales or tourist arrivals. We would consider a similar relatively limited economic effect to be the most likely scenario for the current episode of Ebola concerns at this stage.

However, it is worth considering two additional scenarios: (1) a downside scenario, and (2) a tail risk scenario.

For the downside scenario, we think the example of the September 11 terrorist attacks could be informative. In the aftermath of the attacks, demand for air travel temporarily dried up, while some people reportedly preferred to avoid crowded public places such as subway stations, shopping malls, etc. At the time, concerns were further exacerbated by limited-scale anthrax attacks unrelated to the September 11th attacks themselves. If the Ebola situation was to worsen much more than expected, it is possible to imagine that a similar atmosphere of fear could arise. In terms of broader macroeconomic effects, Roberts (2009) estimates the drag on GDP growth from the September 11 attacks at roughly 0.5 percentage point for the year 2001. Some of this drag was certainly due to direct destruction of factors of production, and as such we would view this as an upper-bound on the drag from fear/risk-aversion effects.

In terms of worst-case tail risk scenarios, the example of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong during 2003 is worth considering. During this time, Hong Kong retail sales dropped roughly 10% from their peak, while air traffic plummeted even more than that seen after the September 11 attacks. Lee and McKibbin (2004) estimate that the SARS outbreak reduced Hong Kong GDP growth in 2003 by 2.6 percentage points. Incidentally, the World Bank cites shopping centers in Lagos, Nigeria—which has largely contained the Ebola outbreak at 19 confirmed cases—reporting sales down 20 to 40%, an even larger decline than that seen in Hong Kong during the SARS outbreak. Again, we believe a fairly limited economic outcome for US growth is most likely, and we present the examples of September 11 and the Hong Kong SARS outbreak only as examples of downside or worst-case tail risk scenarios.

Finally, we assess the possible effects of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa on the global supply chain. The outbreak has been concentrated almost exclusively in three countries: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. The most important global export from these countries is iron ore, and according to the World Bank large international firms have active mining operations in these countries. However, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea account for only about 3% of seaborne supply of iron ore in a global market that our commodities analysts view as fundamentally oversupplied. As such, we see limited direct effects on the global supply chain at this point. The potential for Ebola-related fears to more broadly disrupt global air or sea travel of course remains a concern.

 

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Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:46 | 5348111 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The world is safe from Ebola until an Ebola patient newly arrived from Africa throws up on a golf course!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:51 | 5348152 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

I'm starting to think that Sheriff Arpio just might have something on Ol' Hopey Changey

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:57 | 5348185 froze25
froze25's picture

What makes you say that?  Is it because he discovered that his Birth Cert was a complete fabrication? http://youtu.be/alVzyfptF80

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:15 | 5348274 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Word is they have evidence for multiple charges of fraud. They have been saying this a long time but if they release it during an ebola panic nobody's gonna care. They could also be planning on blaming ebola for the economic collapse and WWIII. Who knows what these psychos have planned

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:36 | 5348348 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

So, this woman with ties to DoD gets on shuttle bus near Pentagon - after getting back from Liberia - and proceeds to vomit continuously.

She was reportedly on her way to US Marine Corps base.

Nothing incredibly odd here. Nope.

Nothing to worry about.

Bring in the power washers & Mr. Clean (and clipboard guy, too).

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:48 | 5348446 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Clipboard Guy, the new Leroy Jenkins

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:32 | 5348634 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

Cruise ship with quarantined Ebola couple returning to Texas after Mexico does not give 'clearance'

http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/17/cruise-ship-quarantined-ebola-couple-return...

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:41 | 5348828 imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

There might be enough victims to start assembling together for protests in an Ebola Spring.

Sat, 10/18/2014 - 09:22 | 5350073 forensicator
forensicator's picture

So they have planned this for a long time and when the outbreak occurred, they expedited visas from ebola stricken countries. This is how Thomas Duncan was able to come to Texas. 

 

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Texas/2014/10/17/DHS-Started-Expediti...

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:18 | 5348570 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Planning his own presidential run for moar hopey changey.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:53 | 5348117 Mercury
Mercury's picture

This is nothing but even if Ebola 2014 fizzles out some bigger, badder, more communicable pathogen will eventually pose a real threat and we obviously do not have the political will or a functional, coordinated system capable of properly dealing with something like that.

This happened less than 100 years ago to give you some perspective on what is in the cards.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:55 | 5348179 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.  And a flu pandemic would rip through the World ten times faster now.

It would be two months too late before our "leaders" acted, and by then too late.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 21:02 | 5349323 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

I dunno EBW, I understand the NIH has ordered the CDC to order a years worth of protective gear.

That alone speaks volumes.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 20:23 | 5349239 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

True.  At first I was shocked at the CDC response (or lack thereof), until I realized that my respect for the CDC was based on movies, NOT real life events.  The CDC is just another bloated, government failure, run by government types who don't take anything seriously except their next bonus.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:49 | 5348125 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Just heard one of the Georgia guidestones is bleeding from it's ass.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:00 | 5348201 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Those ISIS boys had better pick up the pace. Ebola be stealing their thunder.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:10 | 5348246 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Perhaps the Israeli hospitals looking after the wounded 'FSA', Al Nusra and ISIS freedom fighters could infect them with ebola before they are released to go back to chopping heads off...

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:25 | 5348338 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Sweet! Then the severed heads could sprout little ebolegs like in The Thing and run around climbing the walls and literally scaring people to death.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:04 | 5348731 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

LOL! 

Palmer, after taking an long toke "You've got to be fucking kidding me!".

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:13 | 5348259 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Putin needed a good night without Duke nuke' m snoring.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:48 | 5348128 jubber
jubber's picture

Ebola, almost tailor made for Bankers

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:52 | 5348144 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Wait until we have a few dozen or a few hundred cases in a month.  We'll see how it goes on Black Friday.  They are already closing schools down because of this, and we have 2 infections in the country.  You think sheeple aren't ready to start hiding already?  Who's going long into the weekend?

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:51 | 5348146 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Now they will have something besides weather to blame poor holiday sales and GDP on.

Couldn't possibly be a suck ass economy, it's the "weather" and "Ebola fears".

Here it comes...

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:52 | 5348149 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

In contrast, expert opinion suggests that the likelihood of a significant Ebola outbreak in the US is remote. President Obama summed up this sentiment at a recent press conference"

So, it appears that El Presidente zero is now an expert on Ebola.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:52 | 5348157 The Phallic Crusader
The Phallic Crusader's picture

I dare you to say "Obola"  3 times in a mirror!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:54 | 5348165 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You must watch the Regular show.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:19 | 5348576 TheSkipper1967
TheSkipper1967's picture

Hey I am TrashBoat.  We are good at pizza parties, reeaaal good.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:06 | 5348224 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Kenya / Africa, close enough..

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:13 | 5348254 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

He gets the PDB*.  As do all ex-POTUSes.  You and I do not.

The trick is in knowing the difference between what he knows and what he says -- and must say for public consumption.  The only way I know of (short of a leaked copy of the PDB), is to find out how the Investment Portofolios of all the living Presidents are being tweaked -- except for Carter's, of course, since he's too chummy with Palestinian Rights.  As always:  Follow the Money (of TPTB)!

* Presidential Daily Briefing

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:51 | 5348150 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Using HK '03 to estimate the risk for retail doesn't take the internet into account and the fact that there isn't much reason to go to the store these days. A real Ebola scare would be a death blow to US retail.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:00 | 5348194 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Things could spiral out of control fast if 10 or 20 people come down with it that flew on either of those 2 flights from Dallas to Ohio and back with the second nurse.  That will be a real test case for how virulent this strain really is, since she was exhibiting symptoms when she flew.  If no one comes down with it, even after being in close quarters with her for a couple hours, then maybe its all overblown.  We will know alot more by months end.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:09 | 5348242 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Agree, it could end up as nothing. Just saying that if there is a scare, it'll clobber the US economy.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:17 | 5348287 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Out of the money puts about 3 months out.  Hedge accordingly.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:35 | 5348816 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

If I were going to follow any investment advice from an internet source, your's would be it...

DaddyO

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:45 | 5348434 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

That is know at CDC as test case 5

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:04 | 5348736 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

make that an HK 53 and then you're in biddnez.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:51 | 5348151 The Phallic Crusader
The Phallic Crusader's picture

Deflation, all Krug ever wanted...

 

deflation to wash the debt away....

 

deflation, be sure to get your shopping done!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:51 | 5348153 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

New 'Fear Factor' episode:  lick up this ebola vomit and maybe win $50,000!!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:53 | 5348158 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

You know, I was talking to a guy the other day. (cough. cough) .......... and he said..........(cough, cough. Excuse me) uh...... what ..... where was I................................

I remember, years ago (cough) when I was little girl in Kansas (cough) living with my aunt May and my little dog Toto.....
(cough)
And the sofa bears were running wild....................la,la,la ...... it's getting dark......

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:18 | 5348289 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

China pharma claims to have ebola cure. Working on it for last 5 years. (Knew in advance about USSA exceptionalism).

Trials in monkey looked very good. Now trying on citizens working in West Africa. Check Google for links.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:06 | 5348739 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Yeah, but they hit a little bump in the road with that hog trial they ran near the HungPo river.

Bullshit.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 19:19 | 5349067 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

Don't "Bullshit" me bro. Does your google work or not? Bullshit to you!

http://thediplomat.com/2014/10/has-china-found-the-cure-for-ebola/

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:55 | 5348166 Super Hans
Super Hans's picture

As a newly single guy after 15 yers of marriage,  i'm worried more about STD's.  It looks like I may never have sex again!  I'm kind of mad.  Fuck Ebola!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:55 | 5348178 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Ebola post of the week.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:58 | 5348188 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Ebola is a STD.  Godspeed, Super Hans!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:19 | 5348293 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Don't worry. If you aren't rich you have very little chance of getting laid

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:44 | 5348425 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

You may need to change your ID to Super Hands

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:06 | 5348742 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

ROFL, oh F, that was damn near a new keyboard.  Hats off sir!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:06 | 5348512 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

its all van halen's fault

 

Now ebola's here babe, need somethin' to keep you cool
Ah now the fever's here babe, need somethin' to wipe your drool
Better look out now though, Sam's got somethin' for you
Tell ya what it is
I'm your ebola man, stop you when I'm passin' by
Oh my my, I'm your fever hemorage, stop you with a bloodshot eye
See now all my flavors are guaranteed to liquify
Hold on a second baby
I got bundibugyo, ah, weaponized
Haz mat'd and face sheild too
I'm your Zaire man, baby, bleed ya you aint passin' dry
See now all my guts are guaranteed to spotify
Hold on, one more
Well, I'm usually passin' flights, just about eleven o'clock
Uh huh, I never stop, I'm usually get inside, just around your glass block
And if you let me cool you one time, you'll be my external botch
All right boys
I got good bush meat, ah, rip it up,
As tainted as the red cross too
I'm your marbug man, stuck you when I'm passin' by
See now all my flavors are "guaranteed to immunize"
Yes I'm your congo man, stop me when its past my thigh
I'm your high fever man, stop me 'fore the vomit tide
They say all my flavors are explicitly designed
Ah, one time
I'm your dis-ease man, trust me when I stick your thigh
I'm your e-bola man, 'sgone overboard this time
They say spaceball helmets 'll keep yourself alive
One time, boys
I'm your high stakes man
I'm your high fever man
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-baby
Ah my, my, my
All my flavors are guaranteed weaponized
Ow

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:19 | 5348583 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

You'll be fine as long as you don't let it get out of hand.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:36 | 5348654 TheSkipper1967
TheSkipper1967's picture

I share your pain buddy.  Going through that myself.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:08 | 5348749 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

staring up through that net hammock at "little buddy" and his tight white pants.  Long, hot tropical nights.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:55 | 5348168 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Our so called "leaders" are desperate for a diversion or an excuse to justify the major societal changes that are attendant to any economic collapse because let's face it, your average window licker on the street isn't going to understand the risky side of leveraged investments or the finer details of how the financial world works. They will, however, understand war. Or ebola. Or terrorism.

Without a major diversion/excuse/justification the people who suddenly find themselves with a standard of living below what they've come to expect are sure to focus their anger on their so-called leaders, and that's just not an acceptable outcome. Why else have we been trying to provoke shit in Asia, the ME and eastern Europe these past few years? Why else are we leaving the border wide open? Why else does it seem like the government is almost intentionally letting this ebola thing get legs? They need a crisis to blame - ideally one that would seem to justify them asserting even more authority over our day to day lives than they already claim. We'll see where this ebola thing goes, but I wouldn't expect .gov to take any meaningful steps toward averting any crisis anytime soon.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:55 | 5348173 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Lloyd was last seen wearing a hazmat suit in the vicinity of the Pier 6 heliport.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:55 | 5348181 chunga
chunga's picture

This had a big effect on our personal consumer sentiment.

We went out and bought a whole bunch of spice and sauces to put on the barrels of rice and pasta we already had stored away. This way here, if we actually have to eat it, it won't taste that bad.

Fuck you Goldman Sachs.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:57 | 5348183 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

I went into the grocery store the other day and the water section was wiped out. I asked employees why and they said ebola. It was kind of weird. In S Fla.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:06 | 5348230 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Same here in two Walfarts.Water shelves cleared but not the food aisles.

I suppose that will happen when EBT's get reloaded.

If Putin was clever, then would be a good time to take down the EBT system, it would

make a nuke strike look tame.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 14:58 | 5348189 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Fuck the Squid.  That's all I got.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:13 | 5348270 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

OH!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:02 | 5348208 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Lets go long the airline stocks over the weekend ... What happens if the military and National Guard tell Obola and his neo Bolshevik admin to fuck off.. "We are not going to fuckin' Liberia to save people who could be your son" ... now that would get interesting....

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 18:01 | 5348878 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

Not a chance. Unfortunately.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:03 | 5348210 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Airlines are fucked!!

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:13 | 5348258 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

Here in India we often travel by train and bus. I'm going to stick to the scooter.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:03 | 5348214 AlchemyFinancial
AlchemyFinancial's picture

This market is dead, the glass is cracking and this rally tpday is already failing. http://www.alchemyfinancials.blogspot.com/2014/10/casual-friday.html

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:06 | 5348231 unicorn
unicorn's picture

a doctor speaks about the conditions while flying over dubai to india... so much for the global supply chain...
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/141005/nation-current-affairs/article/ebo...

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:10 | 5348248 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

Nice try.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 20:56 | 5349312 ebear
ebear's picture

No, you LISTEN

http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/09/ebola-threat-may-hit-oil-an...

"Some operators may withdraw personnel and halt activities, he suggested, until the Ebola situation is controlled in the countries presently most affected"

Who do you think is going to replace those western oil rig workers when they bug out?

http://www.rigzone.com/jobs/countries/NG/nigeria_jobs.asp

That's just oil rigs.

Now consider the cruise ship industry:

http://www.cruiselinesjobs.com/recruitment-agents/india/

not to mention the regular cargo lines:

http://www.jobships.com/jobships2008/jobshipsindia/homepage/

Fact is, Indians are one of the largest groups of overseas workers of any nation due to their skill levels and English fluency.  They work in the energy sector, construction, planning and administration, health care, hospitality, the list goes on and on.

The there's the ex-pat communities in the UK, USA, Canada, Australia, and Africa itself, most of whom are successful enough to take frequent trips home to visit family.

Good luck keeping tabs on all those comings and goings, and good luck keeping a lid on this thing, not IF, but WHEN it reaches YOU.

 

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:13 | 5348260 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

"While expert opinion sees the likelihood of a significant outbreak of Ebola in the US as very low"...

The chewing gum holding all of this together rests on the (potential) that ~anyone~ who was on a plane or who otherwise was not 'directly' exposed to an infected person, comes down with this disease.    That is when the cascade hits like Mt. St. Helens meeting Spirit Lake.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:12 | 5348263 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

$39,643,352 Worth of NIH Funding That Could Have Gone to the Ebola Vaccine

Agency spends millions on Origami condoms, fat lesbians, texting drunks

For instance, the agency has spent $2,873,440 trying to figure out why lesbians are obese, and$466,642 on why fat girls have a tough time getting dates. Another $2,075,611 was spent encouraging old people to join choirs.

Millions have gone to “text message interventions,” including a study where researchers sent texts to drunks at the bar to try to get them to stop drinking. The project received an additional grant this year, for a total of $674,590.

The NIH is also texting older African Americans with HIV ($372,460), HIV and drug users in rural areas ($693,000), HIV smokers ($763,519), pregnant smokers ($380,145), teen moms ($243,839), and meth addicts ($360,113). Text message interventions to try to get obese people to lose weight have cost $2,707,067.

The NIH’s research on obesity has led to spending $2,101,064 on wearable insoles and buttons that can track a person’s weight, and $374,670 to put on fruit and vegetable puppet shows for preschoolers.

restaurant intervention to develop new children’s menus cost $275,227, and the NIH spent$430,608 for mother-daughter dancing outreach to fight obesity.

Sexual minorities have received a substantial amount from the NIH. The agency has now spent$105,066 following 16 schizophrenic LGBT Canadians around Toronto for a study on their community experiences.

The total for a project on why gay men get syphilis in Peru is now $692,697 after receiving additional $228,425 this year. The NIH is also concerned about postpartum depression in “invisible sexual minority women,” with a study that has cost $718,770.

Millions went to develop “origami condoms,” in male, female, and anal versions. The inventor Danny Resnic, who received $2,466,482 from the NIH, has been accused of massive fraud for using grant money for full-body plastic surgery in Costa Rica and parties at the Playboy mansion.

How transwomen use Facebook is the subject of another NIH study worth $194,788.

The agency has also committed $5 million to “mine and analyze” social media to study American’s attitudes toward drug abuse, and $306,900 to use Twitter for surveillance on depressed people.

The NIH has also spent $15,313,372 on cessation studies devoted to every kind of smoker imaginable. Current studies are targeted at American Indians ($2,899,954); Chinese and Vietnamese men ($424,875); postmenopausal women ($4,151,850); the homeless ($558,576);Korean youth ($94,580); young schizophrenics ($397,802); Brazilian women smokers ($955,368);Latino HIV-positive smokers($471,530); and the LGBT community ($2,364,521).

Yale University is studying how to get “Heavy Drinkers” to stop smoking at a cost of $571,799. Other projects seek to use Twitter to provide “social support to smokers” ($659,469), and yoga ($1,763,048) as a way to quit.

An NIH project studying sighs cost taxpayers $53,282.

Sat, 10/18/2014 - 23:20 | 5351668 dvfco
dvfco's picture

I'm just happy they only spent a little of $700,000 on finding the “invisible sexual minority women.”  If I were in charge of that investigation, I'd be up to about $4 billion in research expeditures.  

 

"I don't know boss, I've got every single person I've ever met in my life working triple-time trying to track down these invisible sexual minority women.  Every time we feel like we're getting close, they seem to disappear into thin air.  If you double my budget, I think we can close in on them."

Sat, 10/18/2014 - 23:24 | 5351672 dvfco
dvfco's picture

Excellent post Bumbu.  It's such a relief that our country is spending more and more money and that 99% of it goes to people making awful life choices.   Who needs Ebola funding anyhow?

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:20 | 5348305 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Anybody here have related information on this...?

 

http://www.infowars.com/breaking-austin-resident-under-quarantine-after-...

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:23 | 5348322 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

Ebola will vanish and be replaced by something more deadly

like Al-Q was replaced by ISIS

The replacement arrived on this meteorite the other night

http://sonotaco.jp/forum/files/m20141015_045346_jpkn1_sp_175.jpg

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:30 | 5348363 TomGa
TomGa's picture

Heard about this one?  #stopebolastrike

"That’s why we’re launching a national campaign for all non-essential workers in the United States to strike from Monday through Wednesday next week.

We are calling on everyone to get behind the strike by tweeting under the hashtag #stopebolastrike and by personally participating in the general strike from Monday to Wednesday. We also invite other media outlets and media personalities to support the strike."

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:58 | 5348480 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

Sounds like the American Communists are trying to cause trouble with the American Fascists in America

This sort of thing didn't end will in the 1930's

Oh wait it looks like Alex Jones is running this. So everything must be okay. He couldn't be an agent provocateur or controlled opposition

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMGRVqIz9ko

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 15:42 | 5348415 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Bullish on Ebola dispensors in GS lobbies.

/s

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:09 | 5348419 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Here is an article speculating about this:

http://22billionenergyslaves.blogspot.ca/2014/10/well-know-by-christmas....

We'll know by Christmas

 

"... breaches in protocol are what we humans are good at  ... Outcome 2. The cases in West Africa continue to multiply and the disease increases exponentially, really taking off at the start of 2015. Chaos ensues as people flee disease centres and bring the virus with them. Overworked and demoralised healthcare workers abandon their posts as they realise they are at the highest risk of contracting the virus ... By February 2015 half of all air traffic has come to a stop. Airlines go bust and people who are stuck on the other side of the world suddenly find out how large it is. By May there is practically no international air travel apart from private jets and military aircraft. International supply chains are shattered and disorder and chaos break out everywhere as people struggle to get food, fuel and medicine. ... After a handful of years the disease has burned itself out, although distributed pockets remain in far away places. A huge chunk has been taken out of the global population — mostly in the poorer nations that lie in the tropics — with richer nations faring somewhat better due to more elaborate healthcare systems, less overcrowding and a greater access to experimental vaccines. Some of these worked and some of them did not. Everyone still alive will breathe a great sigh of relief and look back with sadness as they think of the loved ones they lost in the Great Ebola Pandemic of 2014-18. Economies are broken and people’s faith in science and progress lies in tatters — but at least they are alive. Life will go on, as ever, but everything will have changed. ..."

I have given up on believing in any attempts to prevent the runaway social insanities of social pyramid systems, which are controlled by backing up lies with violence, still driving themselves towards one kind or another of peak insanities. The great tragedy continues to be that there are plenty of creative alternatives, which theoretically could be assembled into better social systems. However, the real world is controlled by the people who are the best at being dishonest and backing that up with violence, while the vast majority of people have gradually adapted to live as political idiots inside of that context. Therefore, if not this Ebola Epidemic, then there are long lists of other potential mega-disasters, none of which are being prepared for, because what civilization actually does is directed by the most criminally insane people, who are able to dominate through continuing to back up lies with violence.

MY OPINION is that the recent Ebola varieties were covertly bioweaponized, while the degree of apparent incompetence in responding to that threat has been orchestrated.  For decades it has always been clear that plagues were the growing, greatest danger. Furthermore, as one learned more about how the real world was being covertly controlled by the most criminally insane people, who had been selected through history to be the best at being dishonest and violent (but not good at anything else), while the vast majority of the rest of the people had been simultaneously selected to become Zombie Sheeple, who could more easily be ruled over by the rulers who specialized in dishonesty and violence, the trajectory of civilization has always been an increasing tragedy.

For several decades I wasted my time attempting to persuade more of the Zombie Sheeple to not continue to be such incompetent political idiots. However, that has backfired upon me by proving nothing but that was a practically impossible task. Therefore, I am resigned to watching the tragedies unfold. I merely try to understand what is going on, without any belief that I could change that.

The profoundly paradoxical problems continue to be that the real world operates death controls based on the maximum possible deceits, which backed up debt controls based on the maximum possible frauds. Those real situations have been driving us towards debt insanities provoking death insanities, in which a bioweaponized plague, allowed to spread around the world, would be what one would expect to eventually happen. The deeper problems continue to be that the only genuine resolutions to the basic problems would require better death control systems. However, since the rulers developed the existing death controls systems on the basis of the maximum possible deceits, and the vast majority of those ruled over developed ways to deliberately ignore that, while believing in the bullshit they were brainwashed with regarding the basic concepts of death control, there is nothing else which is reasonably possible than for our civilization to eventually go through a series of death insanity situations, of one kind or another, with bioweaponized plagues, allowed to proliferate, being the most probable of those ways that the real death controls will end up operating through a civilization which has been controlled by the maximum possible deceits and frauds for thousands of years.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:05 | 5348509 css1971
css1971's picture

Peak?

No, the logistic curve indicates it's only just getting started. Barely even warmed up so far.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 16:26 | 5348612 waterhorse
waterhorse's picture

"However, as Goldman Sachs notes, the "fear factor" associated with Ebola appears more significant than in past instances of pandemic concern."

 

Even the wealth-extracting parasite class is not immune from contagion.  Ebola can strike down even those chosen few doing "God's work."

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:54 | 5348855 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If only it were as easy to get rid of Goldman Sachs as it is to get rid of ebola.

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 17:55 | 5348860 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Exposing The Ebola Hoax

The Elite's Plan For World Genocide By Vaccine

http://ebolahoax.com/

Fri, 10/17/2014 - 23:00 | 5349623 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

The most important cost of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been the tragic and rising loss of human lives. In today's Daily, however, we focus on the potential for broader US macroeconomic effects of Ebola fears.

I just ran this through my new iPhone GoldmanSpeak Translator App and got this:

Let’s face it, no one, especially not our uber wealthy corporate and private clients gives a shit about the lives of a bunch of West Africans. So, let me tell you how you can make a shitload of money off the misery, fear, and death caused by ebola.

Sat, 10/18/2014 - 09:04 | 5350050 observer007
observer007's picture

#Ebola

Mutant Ebola warning: Leading U.S. scientist warns…

Dr Peter Jahrling from the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease says the viral loads in Ebola patients in Liberia are much higher than they are used to seeing.

http://tersee.com/#!q=ebola&t=text

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!