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Markets & Ebola: Confusion, Containment, & Complexity
Via Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann,
Ebola Must Be Contained Now
President Obama and western governments are beginning to appreciate the scale of the Ebola crisis. Unfortunately, the highly deadly virus remains rampant in western Africa and is spreading there at an alarmingly exponential rate. Playing defense by trying to defend our borders will be insufficient since infected travels will not be identified give the long incubation period. However, health officials are doing an admirable and prudent job immediately quarantining all victims and tracing all of their contacts.
Yet, the West must play offensive and snuff the virus out at its source. Stopping Ebola in western Africa is the only way that the virus will be beaten. At the moment, entire societies are tragically being ravaged. These countries need desperate help, because, unlike in the West, they have poorly-equipped health care systems. Spending more today will save much more money later. The world is too interconnected to allow the virus to move from remote areas to large urban areas.
Nigeria did a masterful job preventing an outbreak when an infected person arrived in Lagos, a city of 11 million people. However, not all large metropolitan areas are equipped to do so well. There are 850 urban areas in the world with populations of 500,000 or more. There are 26 cities that qualify as a ‘megacity’ or a city whose population is greater than 10 million people or more. To put it in perspective, New York City is ranked 7th in population with 20 million people, but surprisingly it has the lowest population density of any ‘megacity’.
Other megacities: Tokyo 37M, Jakarta 26M, Seoul 22M, Delhi 22M, Manila 22M, Shanghai 20M, Sao Paulo 20M, Mexico City 19M, Cairo 17M, Beijing 17M, Osaka area 17M, Mumbai 17M, Guangzhou area 16M, Dhaka 15M, L.A. 15M, Kolkota 15M, Karachi 14M, Buenos Aires 13m, Istanbul 13M, Rio de Janeiro, 12M, Lagos 11M.
Clearly, many of these countries do not have adequate public health facilities to deal with Ebola.
(For sake of argument, ‘Urban area’ is defined as a continuous urban development within a metropolitan area whose physical form constitutes the essence of a city.)
There are two less obvious or less discussed economic reasons why the Obama administration may be urgently focusing more on the Ebola crises. Flu season is about to start and the symptoms of Ebola resemble those of the Flu. Some people with flu symptoms are likely to irrationally panic. There are likely to become numerous and frequent headlines about people being tested for Ebola-like symptoms and they might begin to impact financial markets. Hospitals could be overwhelmed particularly due to the vast requirements in terms of the facilities and personnel necessary in order to treat such a patient.
According to the US Census Bureau, there are over 40 million Americans who do not have health insurance. These people are more likely to not seek medical attention at all, thus significantly increasing the risk that the virus will be spread. The West needs to do ‘whatever it takes’ to stop Ebola immediately before one traveler brings it to a large city and we are looking at 1918 comparisons. Moreover, the desperate people in Western Africa deserve and require a global response. For markets, the outcome is binary.
Counter-Productive Micromanagement
The Fed’s message is too complex with too many contingencies and churned with too many mixed signals. Bullard’s comments yesterday are a case in point. One moment he says he has become ‘uncomfortable’ with official rates at zero (as have others); the next minute he says the FOMC needs to consider continuing QE3 or discussing QE4. Enough. Markets understand that the Fed is looking at everything and will act accordingly. (Note: I outlined the reasons in my note on Wednesday why continued or more QE is highly unlikely.)
The Fed must know that there is likely to be a strong negative market reaction during the Fed’s pivot toward normalizing policy. The recent (hollow) hints recently of more QE have foolishly juiced equity markets just as they were beginning the prudent process of preparing for a less accommodative Fed. I say “foolishly’, because those comments will increase market volatility as the market will ultimately have to do the recalibration trade all over again. (My note on Wednesday addressed the reasons why I believe the chances of QE4 are practically zero.)
The level of micro-management by the Fed appears to have reached a new shockingly high plateau. It was already surprising that markets were being told that policy tweaks would be impacted by ‘data dependency’. Can a $17 trillion complex global economy really be tweaked? What ever happened to the Fed rhetoric that whatever is done now only funnels into the broader economy 18 months from now?
- As far as data is concerned, Unemployment Claims reached a 14 year low, which was also the lowest level as a percentage of the workforce in history
- Once upon a time, the Fed said they were going to hike when the Unemployment Rate hit 6.5%. Today, the rate is 5.9% and the Fed is not even finished with QE.
Bullard also cited concern about the fall in the 5-year/5-year expected inflation rate. Since Fed policies and regulations have monumentally distorted the price of financial securities, how can the FOMC gain any useful information from any market valuations? Recently prices have been driven more by liquidity, fear, greed, and Fed policy, than by valuation. It is time that the Fed stops being a source of interference and confusion.
I expect long end Treasury rates to continue to maintain a strong bid at least for the remainder of 2014. Elevated volatility, credit widening and general risk-off themes will resume again next week. I expect the 30-year Treasury to march toward lower yields, eventually taking out the lows of the year within the next few weeks.
“Take him by the hand / Make him understand / The world on you depends” – The Doors
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Immediate qurantine and tracing all contacts does not work so I won't read the rest of your bs.
this is something bigger...then ebola...
what...?
something is afoot..and its not EBOLA...
Politics over public health.
"According to the US Census Bureau, there are over 40 million Americans who do not have health insurance."
Wait, I thought Obama fixed that with the passage of Obamacare. You know, after he fixed all the roads & bridges. And after he lowered the sea level and saved us all from global warming.
It must be a different 40 Million, so as to fit the spin. It must be 40 Million formerly middle class "Folks" who can no longer afford Health Insurance as a result of 6 years of "Progressive policy". The "Other" 40 Million now temporarily have cover which is paid for largely by the taxpayer (Which doesn't include them). Hope that clarifies....??
@TuPhat: "Immediate qurantine and tracing all contacts does not work"
Really? There any reasoning behind that?
I guess what you're sayin PhatHead, is that Obama is NOT an idiot for failing to impose flight bans a long time ago?
You're saying he's NOT an idiot for appointing a moron to run the CDC?
You're saying that appointing a political hack to be the "czar" isn't stupid?
Do I have that right?
He is either completely incompetent like me or is being told what to do.
The smart money is on the latter...
...and he stopped obola in its tracks!
Interesting reading as usual.
The Update if most interesting relating to the prep time of 30 months required to fit a containment airplane. Curious.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/10/17/obama-fights-ebola-czar-soldiers-paul-craig-roberts/
Synopsis on the Update. It took 30 months to outfit the containment plague plane. THAT WOULD PREDATE THE OUTBREAK? would it not.
Man this just keeps getting worse everywhere, on every front.
And I am not just talking Ebola. I am talking every damn thing I read about life/gov/econ/markets/propaganda just about every frigging thing. And I read all sides.
But how do you outfit a plane 2 years before an outbreak? Nice planning and good on you. You have a US patent on this form of garbage. You have US biowarfare outposts in Africa? You send in military troops?NOT MEDICAL AID but frigging boots on the ground.
A country that has been sanctioned for decades for absolutely no reason, CUBA, sent in medical personnel. US sends in troops. And by the way Cuba, the sanctioned has a better medical system than the US any day, anytime.
I have read the other opinions on this, I have. I just do not buy anything they are selling anymore.
The wonders of ready access to preventive medicine. It worked in rural China as well.
"There are likely to become numerous and frequent headlines about people being tested for Ebola-like symptoms and they might begin to impact financial markets. "
Well at least when the markets crash we will have a new reason... ebola. The old one... which was to be the war between Europe and Russia wasn't working out so well...
Yes and yes william. Cuba educates their people. They also, mind money comes in from Russia, But they have a good medical system. So your comment about ready access misleads. US has ready access. FOR profit and I suspect all for profit.
Cuba; rural China. Norway, Sweden. Canada, Denmark, UK France, on and on and on......difference? C'mon tell me why the US costs more? Kills more people? Pharma is KING?
Ready access has frig all to do with it. It is being able to walk in to a facility, be treated with respect and concern, get your bandaid and not have to go Bankrupt. The US medical system is a travesty. Obamacare just puts more profits into pockets with less care.
US should be ashamed.
And they will be.
By the way did you look at Dali? Guernica? Frigging awesome.
And WE ain't buyin what ur sellin. Mr all sides.
Sorry double hit
And for the attention deprived READ this: http://www.globalresearch.ca/a-liberian-scientist-claims-the-u-s-is-responsible-for-the-ebola-outbreak-in-west-africa/5408459
Just as wee bit :
The US Department of Defense (DoD) is funding Ebola trials on humans, trials which started just weeks before the Ebola outbreak in Guinea and Sierra Leone. The reports continue and state that the DoD gave a contract worth $140 million dollars to Tekmira, a Canadian pharmaceutical company, to conduct Ebola research. This research work involved injecting and infusing healthy humans with the deadly Ebola virus. Hence, the DoD is listed as a collaborator in a “First in Human” Ebola clinical trial (NCT02041715, which started in January 2014 shortly before an Ebola epidemic was declared in West Africa in March.
I mean READ THIS.
I am absolutely so charmed and enriched with all the members here posting all their ego shite. And sexist jokes. and I am so smart crap. Doors clips. Idiots.
yeah well maybe research before you spout.
I do not know if this is true. I have no way short of flying there to know. And bet it is "Top Secret". So I will look for "supporting evidence".....like the fact that there are/were 2? biolabs located in the regions. BIOwarfare research labs I think I read.
So maybe making jokes about tit size and blow jobs and such should be given "isolated idiot" threads....some people like me would like to share facts as we can gather them. Then think for ourselves.
I do have a sense of humour but I do not indulge "little boys with prick size envy". Like Wall Street. Underendowed.
"Can I kill YT with this shit?"
"Uh, yessir, mr pResident."
I refer you to link below....http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/10/17/obama-fights-ebola-czar-soldi...
There is some dandy little hoodwinking going on around here. Afoot.
There really is. And yes Ebola is being used.
He quoted the Doors but I bet he doesn't have the album.
mr mojo risin
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do...
www.work-reviews.com
I am intensely interested in your online work at home opportunity.
So long as I don't have to teleconference.
I don't want to have to remove my mask.
"I'm making over $7k a month working part time, sucking dick."
"My sister makes even more as a hooker!"
Try this website, www.workbjs.com
"Nigeria did a masterful job preventing an outbreak"
Really??????
I think you should google lagos and google nigerian goverment
NO Chance!
>Monday is Black Monday
>Nahhhh
Ebola Must Be Contained Now
It may be getting late:
Ebola hysteria hits Dallas as train station is closed after woman who stayed at 'patient zero' apartment complex vomited on platformMore Than 100 Monitored for Ebola Symptoms in Ohio
= Obama considers Ebola a political emergency.
= Obama considers Ebola a public health emergency.
The appointment of a political hack as Ebola Czar shows Obama considers Ebola mainly a political emergency or a public health emergency?
Obama doesn't care, so bring in as many as you can afford.
The appointment of Flounder as Obolo Czar confirms the Statists are in a complete state of collapse denial.
But O's not?
Quick, send in the clowns!
Obola, grab that pressure washer! Frieden, you're on clipboard duty! Flounder, lobby for FEMA internment for anyone who panics!
Just can't make this up, or, maybe there are a lot of shorts on airline stock again, such as in 2001........
http://www.fox19.com/story/26821519/tsa-agent-at-hopkins-airport-patted-...
BREAKING NEWS: Onion magazine files for bankruptcy stating it cannot compete with real-life farces from White House. Onion's editor admits his staff cannot satirize what is already absurdist buffoonery, such as Obama appointing a political hack as Ebola Czar, or allowing a Liberian from Ebola-Hot Zone county to visit his girlfriend in Dallas.
And in other news, the train to Pettycoat Junction is going to arrive on time.
It's time like this I'm glad I live in Mayberry.
Picture Barney having oral sex with Aunt B in Hazmat Suits...
I like to think of him dying after a really, really long medically protracted struggle against a white man's disease. No short drop like black people get. Nuh uh. Make every second count, doc. Take your time. Do your best.
..or gomer having sex with goober.
Kinky!!!!
"Andy! Goober just barfed all over Floyd!"
A man patted down a woman? Must be a total lie because I always ask to be patted down and so does my daughter and I always get a man and she always gets a woman.
I wonder how many people he patted down after he patted her down? Are we also watching all of them on some sort of list? Did the pressure washer guy have sex with the lady on the train platform? We really need a czar to explain how the Democrats are not responsible and the Republicans are. Was the money taxpayers spent on condom research more important than ebola vaccines? So many questions, so few answers.
Later reports are saying she was not on any watch list or at the Duncan's apartment complex.
"later reports, hahaha."
Winston is on the job.
Next time you fly, stick your finger down your throat and barf. Just to fuck with TSA!
('sarc')
Tell them you are not feeling good and lean in close, close, exhale hard.
Soon, no TSA!
sarc
Quarantine anybody entering the borders except for Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Just F'n arrest those slimy vermin, send them back in cuffs to wherever they came from and never let them in, no matter what.
Some perspective on Ebola
http://i.imgur.com/JhajSXX.png
I bet all those diseases started out the same. Now look at them. (well except for hunger). Of course maybe I am mis reading the perspective you are trying to show. Such as TB and Syphilis have been around for a long time and have mutated so they aren't as deadly whereas a relatively new virus such as HIV kills 100000's.
Are you suggesting that Ebola is the next cat out of the bag and ready to take out the king of your charts there?
Just suggesting ebola may be being used as a way to take away more of our rights and that there is a lot of scaremongering going on. That, or it's going to wipe out the human race. could go either way......
"Mr pResident, we have determined obola will kill 200 million Americans."
"And YT has the least resistance?"
"Uh, yessir."
"Great!"
Wasn't there a WAG that it would infect a million or more by January and kill 50 - 70% of them?
drivel, utter crap, useless tripe
Not a conspiracy guy, but I can't remember ever seeing someone puke in public that wasn't hammered drunk at a party or bar. I guess it is very common. What a gross world!
Well then, you need to come with me to the vomitorium some evening!
Only time I have seen people yack in public that were not drunk is along windy mountain roads and pregnant women with morning sickness(seen that twice along a windy mountain road, once was my wife lol). Another place that public yacking can be seen is at amusement parks and county fairs, those rides can be brutal.
Guy Haselmann reads like his fellow tribesman Frieden.
Hey now I recognize this article. It is from that wannabe CIA psyops guy. I should have known when I read "Nigeria has done amasterful job." They didn't do squat. That was a smoke and mirrors operation. They never had an ebola patient over there. They did that to force the US into accepting infected foreigners. Besides that they even gave the reason for the success (of the ebola that never happened) was that they closed the borders. I already said that last night on this same article. What's going on here. Where am I? Is this Saturday? Stranger things have happened traveling back and forth from Q99X2. Anyhow, there I said it again.
Im torn. On one hand you have .gov downplaying it, which tells me its even more serious than it seems and we're not getting the whole story. On the other hand you have media hyping it, which means its only meant to drive fear. Is FEAR of ebola enough of a cover for their economic collapse...or does it have to be the real thing?
And then you have the Mothman chasing Airbus jets...
It ain't good when Mothman shows up. Bad juju.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2798083/is-bird-plane-no-s-myste...
#Ebola
Mutant Ebola warning: Leading U.S. scientist warns…
Dr Peter Jahrling from the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease says the viral loads in Ebola patients in Liberia are much higher than they are used to seeing.
http://tersee.com/#!q=ebola&t=text
I hope that's the same Peter Jahrling that worked on the Reston case way back when. That guy really knew his shit, as was documented by Preston.
And if it is the same Dr Jahrling, then he's probably been told to STFU about quarantine and Cordon Sanitaire, because he believes that's the only way to handle (no pun intended) this shit.
If QE4 does happen, will that make nearly all your other remarks and prognostications wrong?
Van Halen- Runnin' with the devil
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bl4dEAtxo0M (3:36)
Hey!!! We need a Community Organizer here....he has all the skills? right?
Hey!!! We need a Community Organizer here....he has all the skills? right?
please don't get me going for the second time today.... I lost it on the golf course when the Obola came up....
damn. you should have beat the 'obola' into a bloody pulp with a nine-iron. it would 'kill' the 'virus.'
panic (up arrows)
calm (down arrows)
apologies - i put this on another ebola zh thread, but thought i would keep it current ;)
Panic = you can rely on DHS/customs to continue using communal screening methods like footpads, stop off places to take shoes off, long queues of people getting ids scanned by the same security people using the same readers, ebola ridden bags riding down the same belts used by entire airports
Calm = DHS is essential as we can spot ebola infected suicide "bombers" and prevent them using footpads, stop off places to take shoes off, long queues of people getting ids scanned by the same security people using the same readers, ebola ridden bags riding down the same belts used by entire airports
Panic = CDC has no idea how every infected person got to and from airports and all the direct interactions they had and all the wastes discharged over the ebola incubation period (now in the water everyone is drinking via sewage treatment plants) recycling plants for all recycled pizza boxes touched by the infected people plus anything else that was thrown out and is being recycled - bottles and such.
Calm = CDC knows how every infected person got to and from airports and all the direct interactions they had and all the wastes discharged over the ebola incubation period are not in the water everyone is drinking via sewage treatment plants which are guaranteed to kill ebola, recycling plants for all recycled pizza boxes touched by the infected people plus anything else that was thrown out and is being recycled - bottles and such, automatically kill ebola and any other germ that has ever existed or will ever exist.
I expect there are almost as many variations of these themes that bring directly into focus every physical security system in place to make them natural transmitters of ebola.
I don't think this is the killer tho. There needs to be a few evolutions yet. Mind you, if i thought I would die if I didn't get to a first world health care system, and I had the money, I would simply go to a destination that was not being screened. E.g. Leave Liberia and go to Morocco, then Spain then a nice flight to Paris or Amsterdam then a short hop home to meet the guys with the clipboards.
"...I had the money, I would simply go to a destination that was not being screened. E.g. Leave Liberia and go to Morocco, then Spain then..."
If somehow the current admin ever decided to stop digging itself deeper into a pandemic hole and stopped entry of persons who have visited affected areas, that would be the next problem to deal with.
You would think that a simple check of travel history recorded in passport books would close that loophole. I dont see why that wouldn't work.
Still, just reducing the direct flow of potentially infected persons would have an inverse exponential effect. A good first step.
Oingo Boingo Dead Man's Party
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iypUpv9xelg (3:54)
Oingo Boingo - It's a Dead Man's Party
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UbGtjnluyY (4:16)
Both unavailable sweet heart ;)
Ebola is good for a P/E of 118 points. Similar to Amazon.
/LOL
Does anyone find it funny that Ivory Coast is inhabited by black people?
only stupid dumb fucks like you who have no fn meaningful education.
...meh, whatever. I will say this: Ivory Coast had the very good sense (UNLIKE THE US) to completely block passage into their country from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone even though they had a strong economic incentive not to (I'm referring to cocoa harvesting laborers).
Which proves that the failure to understand the utility of quarantine (by certain blacks :Obama, for example, ugh!) is NOT a genetic defect.
Oh, and btw: Ivory Coast had zero cases of ebola last I checked!
Prig
A ball of confusion. Heard that somewhere before.
You don't know confused until you are outside on a night like this.
On the grounds of an ancient indian tribe.
Little is known about my homies.
They would have nothing to do with the euros.
And up the ridges all around are the Plantation home cemetery's of
American fathers even you young bucks have heard about.
Reminds me of mick and keith.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loNey3n6uuE
Mixed emotions.
Guinea: "Health officials killed by mob who believed they were infecting people with the virus".
"On 17 September 2014 a mob of villagers killed an 'Ebola Awareness team' in a village about 900 km from Guinea's capital. The Guinea correspondent reported that locals attacked the team, which comprised local administrators, two medical officers, a preacher, and the three journalists.
According to the correspondent, the villagers instigated this attack because they thought Ebola "is a political lie orchestrated by the authorities and that the disease is not real." This follows previous riots in Nzérékoré in August after rumours that health officials who were disinfecting a market were infecting people with the virus."
One Guinea native said that Ebola is being spread by Doctors Without Borders, a charity with Zionist connections.
Is it coincidental that the death toll in Guinea stopped growing after these incidents prompted their government to stop sending in such 'teams'?
For those who haven't seen it yet. Water wells poisoned with probably paraformaldehyde in Africa:
http://www.liberianobserver.com/security/breaking-formaldeyde-water-alle...
If you live connected to a public water supply you better start thinking of alternatives.
And if you feel like a lemming then get a vaccination this year.
lol. the bottom half of the class is astounding.
Don't worry. Have faith in .gov. The real bottom half won't be missed
"We are here to vaccinate you, serf."
"Blam! Blam!"
"I don't think so. Kids, burn those bodies."
What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little CDC? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my Family in the Filoviridae, and I’ve been involved in numerous outbreaks in Africa, and I have over 5000 confirmed kills. I am trained in bat warfare and I’m the top species jumper in the entire jungle. You are nothing to me but just another friend. I will love you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit about vaccines on the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am infecting 10,000 people a week across the USA and your DNA is being traced right now so you better prepare for the love, maggot. The love that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your civilization. You’re fucking loved, future friend. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can be contracted in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare RNA. Not only am I extensively trained in hemorrhaging, but I have access to an entire arsenal of symptoms and I will use it to its full extent to love your multicellular ass off the face of the continent, you little Friend. If only you could have known what unholy beauty your little “clever” quarantine was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you glorious victim. I will shit love all over you and you will drown in blood. You’re fucking loved, future friend.
Love, Ebola Chan.
It's a wild world, baby.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k6mQyu2GxM
But if you want to leave take good care.
I hope you make a lot of good friends out there....
Black Jack Pershing would eat baby ebolas for breakfast.
damn!
damn! Cougar looks like you got competition!
Outstanding rant!
+10 for not using the dreaded all-caps ... however, I will have to deduct 5 for not using paragraphs ;)
Sell any collectibles you might have while the potential market is still viable (alive).
At least burying the Ebola victims is a shovel ready project.
SEIU may even get its $15 an hour "living" wage for the Ebola grave diggers.
They get thrown into the lake of fire, so no diggers needed.
Tokyo chould really be famous for ABC.
Fukushima, Ebola, ?mu Shinriky?!
Uh, Obola's job is to spread Obola!
I think you have the wrong idea.
#Ebola
Ebola cruise ship ‘in utter panic’ as Mexico and Belize…
Passengers aboard the cruise ship at the centre of an Ebola scare are in a panic after being refused to dock at either Mexico or Belize, with one claiming “it’s like a floating petri dish.”
Latest:
http://tersee.com/#!q=ebola&t=text
"By the time the dumbass Americans figure out I gave them Obola, I will be on a plane to Tahiti, with you, Reggie!"