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Why Airport Screening Won't Stop Ebola, The Economist Explains
Originally posted at The Economist,
Those who got sick, and there were many, developed large, dark blisters that oozed pus and blood. Later came fever and bloody vomiting. Long before Ebola, there was the Black Death, which killed millions in the 14th century. And as with Ebola, nervous officials tried to keep the sick from entering their cities. Venetian authorities held ships at bay for 40 days—hence the word quarantine—to check for infections. Still, the disease ravaged the republic. Today countries are screening air passengers arriving from the places affected by Ebola. Will these efforts prove more effective?
Ebola has killed more than 4,000 people, nearly all of them in west Africa. But the threat to countries outside the region became clear when a Liberian man, Thomas Duncan, was diagnosed with the disease in America. He probably contracted it while helping an infected woman in Liberia. He then hopped on a plane to America. Mr Duncan died in Dallas on October 8th, the same day American officials announced that travellers from the countries hardest hit by Ebola—Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone—would be questioned about their health, travel and contact with the sick, and have their temperatures taken at five large airports. Quarantine is an option for those suspected of being ill. A day later Britain announced that it would screen travellers from these countries at Heathrow and Gatwick airports (and two rail terminals). African and Asian countries have been screening air passengers for months, with some using infrared cameras to detect fevers. This is in addition to the screening of all departing air travellers in the affected countries.
Some governments are dusting off measures that were previously used to combat the spread of bird flu and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). But David Heymann, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says screening did not stop those diseases and it is unlikely to stop Ebola. Consider Mr Duncan, who did not have a fever when leaving Liberia, nor when landing in America. He only developed symptoms a week later. American officials admit that the new screening procedures would not have caught him. It can take up to 21 days for someone to show signs of Ebola. Passengers who wish to avoid quarantine, especially in African Ebola wards, or receive treatment in the West, may also lie. Mr Duncan did not tell Liberian officials that he had been in contact with the sick.
During the SARS outbreak, some air passengers took painkillers to reduce their temperatures. Others may not know that they are infected, and infrared scanners are not always reliable. "I would expect a handful of cases in the next few months," warned Sally Davies, Britain's chief medical officer, after the screening measures were announced.
Screening may at least calm people down, however. Notwithstanding the bungled effort to diagnose and treat Mr Duncan in Texas, where a health-care worker has also tested positive for the disease, developed countries are well-equipped to contain Ebola. The announcement of screening has focused minds. It is also a measured response—not as economically painful as a full travel ban, or as inconvenient as mass screening. But the best way to stop Ebola from spreading, say health experts, is to drain the reservoir of the disease, which means tackling it in west Africa. Doing that presents an entirely different set of challenges. When it comes to stopping Ebola, the rich world's self-interest aligns neatly with the needs of the developing world. But countries in a position to help have been slow to act.
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just give all arriving passengers from obola-stricken countries clipboards...they'll be fine ! !
<cough>
<cough>
<cough>
i wonder how they TREAT ebola in africa
in bush
as in ditch medicine..
'the rich nations need to react...but are slow in acting...'
aka...show me the money!!!
The only method to stop Ebola are straightforwad quarantine measures. Insisting on importing these passengers is either folley or intentional. I still maintain its mortality rate is as low as 20% in a healthy relatively young patient. Excuding of course infants and elderly. 20% is terrible but its still better than 70% and you can survive if you prepare. Also watch Dallas as a beta test. If we get two more positives there, then trouble will develop in markets. You also have to recognise the greater threat initially will be the panic created if the herd stampedes. THAT is why you have to fear Ebola at this stage. The disease itself will not kill nearly as many people as a Panic/collapse in the JIT delivery systems and healthcare facilities. I will not elaborate on what you will beg for but you can guess their intial steps in response
You didn't infect that !
Ka Ching: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEZKMnD8AOw
Human trials offer hope for Ebola vaccineFrom CNN; a $ource you can trust..
TO PEDEL DRUGS
i trust CNN for accurate news like i would trust Charlie Sheen for parenting advice
I bet we get a real good handle on The Ebolas before November 5th.
http://www.commdiginews.com/news-2/ebola-transmission-not-airborne-dont-...
Defund the CDC.
Defund Obamacare.
The life you save may be your own. Even Belize gets this crap.
Almost forgot....kill all the lawyers......sorry Flounder.
One more thing.....
air passengers arriving from the places affected by Ebola.
We need to stop doing that....immediately. Stop listening to butt stupid political hacks.
True, but can you PLEASE get a less offensive avatar? Sasha Baron Cohen -- yuck!!!
Shut your cock holster. Who appointed you the chief of Zero Hedge politically correct police? Take your censorship elsewhere. I find your misogynistic white male avatar to be highly offensive but Ive never said anything. Heres a tip: turn off images so your insecurity doesnt affect the rest of us well adjusted people.
Economist Magazine forecasting Ebola at airports? Is this some type of a joke?
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable” --- John Kenneth Galbraith
Escrava Isaura
I like how you are a critical thinker. Maybe you shine best on ZH.
But wow. You don't respect the Economist Magazine. I'm not a great reader like you, but wow Economist seems pretty logical...
TeethVillage88s
Because I favor biology (real science), psychology (to understand), and philosophy (to explain) fields rather than economics, especially when economics are written on massmedia that set policies, such as The New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times, or the Economist.
I am not saying that these four publications are not telling the truth, but that their truths and views are very distorted. Their truths and views are very biased towards business and financial solutions, instead of organizing communities guided by solidarity, sympathy, and concern for others.
The dumbing down, distraction, and persistent need of financial gains applied at the population by these massmedia ‘genius’ are so efficient that the masses are incapable of foresee the coming problems; and even less, be able to organize solutions.
If I can borrow Noam Chomsky’s phrase:
The general concerns of all people - “elude” the public. The public just isn't up to dealing with them. And they have to be the domain of what he called a "specialized class" ... [Reinhold Niebuhr]'s view was that rationality belongs to the cool observer.
But because of the stupidity of the average man, he follows not reason, but faith. And this naive faith requires necessary illusion, and emotionally potent oversimplifications, which are provided by the myth-maker to keep the ordinary person on course. It's not the case, as the naive might think, that indoctrination is inconsistent with democracy. Rather, as this whole line of thinkers observes, it is the essence of democracy.
The point is that in a military state or a feudal state or what we would now call a totalitarian state, it doesn't much matter because you've got a bludgeon over their heads and you can control what they do.
But when the state loses the bludgeon, when you can't control people by force, and when the voice of the people can be heard, you have this problem—it may make people so curious and so arrogant that they don't have the humility to submit to a civil rule [Clement Walker, 1661], and therefore you have to control what people think.
And the standard way to do this is to resort to what in more honest days used to be called propaganda, manufacture of consent, creation of necessary illusion. Various ways of either marginalizing the public or reducing them to apathy in some fashion.
Noam Chomsky's "specialized class" are doing a real bang up job looking out for the po' ol' dumb folks that's don't know whats good for 'em.
Just give them some gummint cheese an keep em quiet.
Sorry pal.
I got more faith in Joe the Plumber than all the Noam smarty-pants linguists that the bullshit factories can churn out.
Joe may not be a 165 IQ genius but Joe knows how to balance his checkbook and mind his own business.
Less Noams and more Joes running things would be a vast improvement.
To substantiate your point here, the article refers to a travel ban as"economically painful". It is casually slipped in as if that were a fact that would have great consequences beyond the need for further validation.
However there is no estimate of the impact of a travel ban. And if the sum total cost is restricted or quarantined travel for 150 Liberian travelers per day, how can that have any measureable impact on our $14 trillion dollar GNP? No one has yet proposed limiting trade, only personal travel.
But of course, in order to maintain support for the paradigm that has been chosen by the political class, the entire article turns on it's premise (inadequate travel restrictions) by obtaining the reader's tacit agreement that there are economic consequences of measureable concern which must be protected even at the cost of innocent lives. Also note that the consequences of the failure of the current travel policy is not discussed in economic terms. Thus only half an arguement is even made. But it is the half they prefer to embed in your mind.
This is a shill peice attempting to attract those concerned about Ebola who think outside the parameters set by the political class and to funnel the reader's thought into agreement with said political class. Evenso, a brilliant example of doublespeak.
Game. Set. Match.
This may be true but I would care to guess the long term survival rate of a person who had lived through Ebola would be severely reduced. The amount of organ damage this virus does to the body is extensive. So you survive but are now on perminant dialysis? Or have premature cardiovascular disease? How about mental acuity considering brain damage? Not getting this seems to be eminently preferable.
Since our dear leaders want to watch Ebola burn through its preferred host in real time experimentation, I guess we do need to watch Dallas as a first test case in preparation for more to come. I do hope all are making plans for this. I certainly am doing my best in hopes it will be enough. The alternative is unthinkable.
Miffed
Miffed, M'am - what are your views on the suggestion that the "survivors" may have been infected by partially defective virus? Because of the diversity issue, there are probably a reasonable number that behave sub-optimally, and which may then provide the host with better odds in mounting an effective defence.
We were chatting about this at a recent Micro Breakfast, and it does seem a plausible reason (but so does a degree of innate host immunity in "the Locals"). Might even be a combination of both - duff virus + partially pre-immune host = failed infection.
Doesn't account for the contunued virus excretion. Don't know whether the virus from the "sub-clinically infected" hosts is less, same as, or more pathogenic to an unexposed new host. Presumably there will be a range of pathogenicities / infectivities as for any other Ebolavirus infection?
Any thoughts on this? Seems a reasonable hypothesis??
Why are there no updates on the two Duncan exposed RNs shipped to St Elswhere??? Are TPTB hiding something???
Local DFW news this morning was saying the NIH had stopped providing updates. Before the updates stopped, there were reports that the condition of the two nurses were worsening.
Meanwhile, the quarantine for Duncan's family members ends at midnight tonight, after none of them have shown any apparent symptoms for 21 days. (WHO says 21 days is not long enough. A 21 day quarantine only catches 95% of the cases.)
TPTB are trying to keep everybody calm... truth is a dangerous thing.
Forward (over the cliff)!
Why are there no updates on the two Duncan exposed RNs shipped to St Elswhere??? Are TPTB hiding something???
Russia to send Ebola vaccine toWest Africa in 2 month. Also, Japan believes its antiviral medication can be effective against Ebola, and is offering help to W. Africa.
http://banoosh.com/blog/2014/10/15/russia-send-ebola-vaccine-w-africa-2-...
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/10/17/national/politics-diplomacy/...
Here's how they joke about ebola:
The speed with which the disease is spreading and killing people makes it even more scary than the thought of dying in a road accident. The other day, I heard a story (joke) of a woman who fell ill with fever and flu-like symptoms. Scared of Ebola infection, she rushed to the hospital for diagnosis and treatment. She was taken through the usual routines at the consulting room and the laboratory. When she was told that her sickness was caused by HIV infection, the lady jumped in joy and started singing praises to God for his blessings and delivering her from Ebola. The rationale for this story is simple; HIV has an antidote called anti-retroviral that can keep you alive for a long time. But Ebola has no cure and can kill you within days.
In terms of to treat ebola:
Vitamin C aka bitter kola nut Sound familiar around ZH?
Salt (While bathing salts may have a certain connotation around here, the history of the salt cure is even older than Venetian quarantines. Back when salt was more valuable than gold in West Africa, there were significant people who suffered actually suffered salt deficiency. To this day, in poor developing countries you here salt advocated (and oddly enough, the places I've personally heard it most are evangelical Christian congregations - so much for the Reformation ending the Dark Ages, or monothesism conquering Voodoo).
thank you for your time and insight...
While ranting and joking about Medieval Medicine, it's interesting to note that the local Witch Doctors are notorious for bleeding patients (with or without leaches), because the rapid explosion of ebola in Sierra Leone was traced back to a single Witch Doctor who died of Ebola.
There has been a more discrete ebola awarness campaign (than the NGO-backed billboard, flyer and social media campaign) that has been waged by survey and tracing teams in the region trying to spread the doctrine of primum non nocere (first, do no harm) with the local traditional healers.
Like you said, follow the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
http://www.mondaq.com/x/345550/international+trade+investment/Controvers...
"The recent US-Africa Business Forum - an event that was attended by major US corporations including Ford, GE, Morgan Stanley and Coca Cola - has created a certain amount of optimism. ..."
Dear Sir
Since ebola is contact transmissable could tea tree oil or something else on the skin kill it on contact?
You say sir and I start looking over my shoulder for an ancient relative or a guy wearing gold stars on his shoulders...
In specific regards to tea tree oil- you'd have to ask a virologist or microbiologist with a strong grasp of chemistry. Try checking with Parrotile, I think he's personally played with the "Great West African Hoax" virus.
(There are some meaty bones I could throw the Vitamin C crowd right now, but since they are largely interested in simply repackaging Ascorbic Acid as the next simple snake oil cure, No Soup for Them!)
A 5% bleach solution will kill ebola and other viruses (the Clorox bleach generally sold in the US is 10%, it is 5% in much of Europe, when fresh, strength degrades 20% p.a. even when properly stored in liquid form) and you can also get a bucket of powdered bleach tablets or pool shock that has a much better shelf life and will make thousands of gallons of disinfectant for $50. If you have a bad reaction to chlorine, there are numerous concentrated hospital disinfectants that will kill viruses (Virex, BenzaRid, Barbicide, Mar-V-Cide) but they are comparatively expensive on a volume basis even from discount places like Amazon, and you would have to buy and try them to determine your sensitivity - (none of this shit is ideal to to be putting on human skin, just read the label on the bleach by your washing machine, and then read the WHO recommendations - moar bleach...)
Regardless, if ebola gets on your skin it is a race against time and the odds aren't desirable of the virus dying naturally (or chemically) before you touch a mucus membrane or cut/scrape, or the virus finds some tiny invisible path through comparatively porous human skin, so I would do anything and everything possible to avoid ebola on the skin in the first place.
Some comments on the skin. High cholesterol will not allow permeability through the skin. (Eat eggs and fats) (You can diet after containment)
Some comments on what the US should do to save American lives.
Solve an equation by using algos (Goldman Sachs can provide the basic method) and use all possible methods of prevention, such as quarantine, denial of visas from affected countries, deny landing rights to planes which have travelled there and have not been disinfected and many other preventive methods and solve for how many lives will be saved.
Since math is neither liberal nor conservative and has no emotions, you will get the best combination of preventive methods for the optimal number of saved lives. (current and future)
I would be concerned about the side effects of whatever BigPharma product the average American is going to put into their body to try and get rid of that cholesterol. But the egg and fat[ty acid] thing got me thinking (finally taking a weed whacker and razor to the mountain man facial moss also helped). Instead of attacking the virus by sandwiching ebola between human skin and a caustic chemical. It might be preferable to put a another barrier between healthy skin and deadly ebola that also reduces the skin's permeability beforehand.
Off the top my head, and offered with no guarantees and a bunch of caveats, including my current lack of caffeine... and particularly that one would actually be experimenting on themselves (which is really no biggie unless you are part of the silent majority that has an addiction to the placebo effects of white lab coats, except for the whole ebola life and death thingy).
Starting with a neutral base of coconut oil, beeswax which is often used in lip balms also has properties similar to PMB (which reduces skin permeability and is anti bacterial, but not anti-viral, in similar commercial/industrial products), bee propolis, in addition to beeswax, would be even better from a generic anti-viral standpoint but it is hard to find the real thing, and very expensive, if you don't raise your own bees. Also, more people might have adverse reactions to bee propolis than beeswax (see caveat on experimentation above). Add to the mix tea tree oil (I would personally ignore any claims of researched antiviral benefits, but point out there is research that it blocks dermal absorption of certain chemicals, and regardless tea tree oil has been used since forever to treat skin various skin ailments). Right up there with Tea Tree oil is in terms of treating skin ailments and promoting healthy skin is Basalm of Peru, but like bee propolis, more people light have an allergic reaction to it, so more individual experimentation. Top it off with Lavender and Geranium which are better tolerated and also used to treat a skin ailments and damage.
Then there's my wife's preferred solution - the entire cosmetics counter at the Globus department store, but a single good vitamin enriched moisturizer from the drug store might be more practical and just as effective (but I'll keep my mouth shut about that).
Regardless- treating all dry, cracked, cut, secreting, or other skin conditions (internally, externally, or other) before any date with Ebola seems like a very good idea.
see the bunch of fatty ass in america almost 50%.... so you are all saved. 50% fat... 50% death for ebola... so USA will only loose 25% population. not that bad. unfortunatly, only fat will survives. lil chinese and russian and daesh running fast will behead you from behind you wont have time to turn on yourself to see em coming... lol
Greetings! Our work was with Marburgvirus, which is a relative, but immunologically and genetically distinct.
Absolutely NO idea as to the efficacy of skin transmission - our inoculation methods were either via tissue culture (most commonly, since it's safer!), and very occasionally using animals (direct intranasal droplet inoculation). Anything larger than a mouse was VERY well anaesthetised prior to ANY procedure - we definitely did NOT want any "B-Movie SF film scenes" when handling that agent.
I can tell you that the efficacy of intranasal / oral administration is almost as good as direct inoculation - we were getting reliable (>95%) transmission right down to 5 TCID50 Marburgvirus particles, so when I see references for the "need" to used 150 TCID50 ebolavirus for pig inoculation, it suggests (to me) that Ebolavirus may not be as easily transmissable as Marburgvirus - BUT the proviso there is we were using a highly passaged (so presumably optimally host-adapted) strain.
Because of their genetic instability, these RNA viruses can (read, do) adapt VERY quickly to the new host. Combination of large burst number, and genetic diversity (within a single cell infection cycle) means many will be "rejects", but if only 0.1% are "new, improved" that's a lot of "better adapted virus", per replication cycle.
This is what scares me (and I may add, others "in the Business")!!
Thanks Parrotile! Really appreciate your posts Any chance you could give your procedures for entering and exiting a biohazard 4 lab? Or where you may have posted already? I work in a class 6 cleanroom with class 5 horizontal air flow hoods. It all goes out the window when environmental services comes in, or, better yet, an administrator ("do I have to wear all this stuff"). Guess for your situation they would be dead if they didn't!
Unfortunately 30+ years ago means things must have changed. Basically, the policy was anything going in or out was decontaminated via a reliable process. So, double - ended autoclaves, smaller items shuttled in and out via "dunk tanks" filled with 10% Chloros (Hypochlorite - 15 minute contact time), or Cidex (Glutaraldehyde). We had a 2-stage suit up - undersuits were sterilised hooded polyester / terylene with standard zip closures; footwear was white Silicone Theatre boots. the Drager oversuits were a PVC on nylon core material - reasonably flexible but extremely tough (read, puncture and tear resistant).
Room 1(outer lobby) - standard Operating Theatre scrub - up (using Betadine single-use brushes). Washing was done in a wall enclosure (Wallgate Systems) - filtered water in, with HEPA filtered warm air drying.
Through the "paddling pool" (10% hypochlorite) into the Gowning Area. Presterilised Drager suits, rear entry, and once "in" your colleague ensured zips were closed and taped with low-tack, low residue tape. Same goes for gloves - Kevlar (I think) undergloves (taped) with nitrile on top. Seams taped as above.
Connect up umbilical (air feed / return, communications), and let the system do a static leak test, whilst we did a comms. test: Close the "lobby door", wait for door seals to pressurise, then enter the working area.
Exit was via a separate route. "Paddling pool", hand spray (10% hypochlorite) all gloves / joints / seals, then Shower (in the suit) with 10% hypochlorite + detergent, then filtered water.
Once rinsed (check with indicator paper strips), remove external gloves (no-touch technique) and don fresh (non-sterile) gloves. Remove colleagues suit, and place in contaminated waste chute. He'll unsuit you, then it's into the second area (after the Lab door was locked and sealed), undersuit into second contaminated waste chute, then shower ("Swimming-pool" level of chlorination), and then new gear, and out.
The Drager suits were decontaminated by a gas plasma process (Sterrad??) Undersuits were done by standard Hospital dirty / contaminated laundry processes, then irradiation (we used Isotron in Reading I believe).
Obviously the system worked. Equally obviously all the "high risk" work was done inside isolators, so in reality we were probably never directly exposed. We did have random operator checks via deliberately introduced innocuous contamination, to make sure we were not taking short-cuts. We were also subject to continuous audio and TV monitoring (including Cabinet interiors).
Cabinets and rooms were formaldehyded after each session. Since we were in there for 6 - 8 hours sometimes, definitely NO coffee beforehand (diuretic!). There was a negative pressure gradient into the Lab area, so opening the doors (against the gradient) was a fair task as you may guess.
Hope this helps. There may be bits I've forgotten, but this seems to be how I remember it (from many repetitions).
... you had me at double ended autclaves. Sigh ...
That's how a bio-level 4 organism in test tubes is contained. When it's in, say, humans, things seem to be a bit less stringent. Paper gowns, latex gloves, paper masks, safety glasses. All as recommended by the CDC.
Does anyone really wonder that nurses are getting infected? They must have "broken protocol". Yeah, fuckin' sure.
Fuck the CDC. Providers who listen to them can expect an early and nasty death.
Ever read Lab 257? Great book about Plum Island. The PIs go through all of that and then the dumb maintenance staff are at the incinerator cooking up choice cuts of meat from the lab animals.
One important point I overlooked - the Umbilicals. The testing / Comms test was performed in the suiting-up lobby area. Before moving into the Lab, we used to overpressurise the suits so as to have a controlled leak out of the connector - so nothing could get in. Same idea when leaving - overpressurise, then quickly enter the decontamination area. Your colleage would carefully wipe "your" connector before coupling-up to the exit lobby supply. This would have been the only place where the suit was "open" to the environment, and the air leak was optimised to prevent anything airborne "outside" coming "in".
Even if there had been gross contamination of the Lab environment, there were protocols for rapid decontamination (formaldehyde fog system) - and seeing as we were in sealed suits with their own air supply, we'd have been at zero risk.
A lot of thought went into that place. ZERO accident rate, ZERO contamination rate (even with the "test challenge" sneakily-placed contaminants!)
Thanks as always for your input, Parrotile. If you have yet to read of the lab tech's situation on the Carnival cruise ship - described below in a post by things that go bump - you may find it both informative and distressing.
This is my biggest nightmare and where I will be involved in an outbreak. The Drs, nurses, EMTs have if far worse. I have received many bloody samples with the blood slathered all over the outside of the container. With something so infectious as Ebola, micro droplets unseen by the naked eye are just as dangerous.
Miffed;-)
I always wondered about that, Miffed. Don't you have dunk tanks or wash stations for incoming containerized samples, especially if you know the contents are infectious? I would think that a lab would go with the assumption that every incomming container was contaminated, otherwise you would have to reglove every time after touching the container.
Thank you. Greetings from the other side of the world!
When it comes to Filoviridae, I have no frame of reference for how difficult these little buggers are to kill. Looking at your protocols above, I can see why you never had any accidental infections or virus releases, but I fear there may no be no simple solution to my ignorance.
At the Redneck family farm in Appalachia we're simpletons when it comes to viruses and other small critters, and we generally swear by 1% sodium hypochlorite for 1 minute, unless dealing with pooled blood then we just add a 0 to the concentration and go on about our merry way.
At the Redneck & Friends processing plant that we're trying to finally open next year, the "friends" are a bit more sophisticated. We have ISO and HACCP standards to meet and odd local viruses like Asfivirus, and more practically- the various crop blights that can directly affect production volumes, so there is a symphony of CIP (clean in place) systems and detailed engineered procedures for all the manual processes.
For all the organisms & viruses (until this year) that we must mitigate, there are "optimized" tables available for all the chemical, thermal or radiation inactivation options, since everyone is now "globalized" and every second we're off line for cleaning forfeits revenue. But there are no such tables we've found for filoviruses (yet), and the published research does not appear to focus on, or practically address, minimum thresholds.
For chemical deactivation of ebola- the published dilutions of acetic acid, bleaches and alcohols are largely the same as for the more common viruses that must be mitigated in the workplace, but 10 minutes to achieve deactivation seems like an eternity compared to the more common viruses. At least with data on thermal deactivation there are plots to extrapolate and infer from. Mitchell and McCormick provide 22 minutes to deactivate 5 logs PFU/ml of ebola which seems more "moderate" than the 10 minutes seems, but this is way out of my competency area and over my head.
Other than the fact that the Filoviridae are highly deadly and highly adaptable, is there anything to indicate they are also abnormally difficult viruses to kill, once you remove the human host from the equation (or preferably before the human host is infected in the first place)?
Be aware that a 5 log reduction is "only" 100,000. If your sample contains 10e6 or above (VERY likley with ANY animal tissue extract / ascitic fluid / blood) your safety factor is very inadequate. Using the Marburgvirus example (95% infectivity with 5 TCID50, which may be 100 or less virions) we routinely achieved TCID50 with 1 in 10e8 dilutions of mouse ascitic fluid; a 1 in 10e7 dilution would reliably give us TCID95. So even with your log 5 reduction protocol, you'd still have an almost certainly (>95%) infective "dose" in 10 microlitres, and a 50:50 infective dose in 1 microlitre - which is not a lot . . . .
Probably the high concentration / high contact time were overkill, but remember these were the "Old Days" before any of the new high-sensitivity high speed assays. Apart from immunofluorescence, all we really had was tissue culture (plaque formation - slow!), so we HAD to go overkill!
Generally the simpler the virus, the more difficult it is to inactivate. Be aware that "inactivation" might not necessarily mean "killing" since these are not exactly living organisms, so sometimes they can do surprising things. Incineration is reliable; so is autoclaving (135C for 30 minutes - 121C / 15 minutes has far too low a safety factor). Irradiation (Ionising / EB / UV) works reliably, but UV dosimetry is not that reliable, and if your virus is in a protein matrix (e.g. blood plasma, let alone whole blood) the shielding effect can result in unreliable, possibly suboptimal treatment (bad news, that!).
Your reference for thermal inactivation taking 22 minutes? The temperature's important. This might be for log 5 reduction at say 100C, or less (what are you processing?) If your stock is a "biological" product, e.g. FBCS, reliable eradication of viruses (without product denaturation) is going to be VERY difficult. If you're handling thermally insensitive product / intermediaries, then autoclave temperatures may be a safe option? In any complex process, the only way to be sure is to run a validation exercise, if possible using a "target" of similar size and genetic construction (e.g. 17kDa RNA virus rather than 140 kDa DNA virus). How about Tobacco Mosaic? Non (Human) pathogenic, but a tough nut to crack! If your processes can reliably inactivate TMV I'd feel safe using them to inactivate Filoviridae! (Presumably no chance of "borrowing" Restonvirus to "Validate" you processes?? :-)) )
CIP's a challenge at the best of times - I was also involved in the UK Botulinum Toxin production programme (for therapeutic use). It's surprising what will attack TriClover sanitary flanges and the seals, even NEW seals, if the pressure / temperature combination's high enough!! At least the Pharmaceutical and Dairy Industries had done all the really hard work for us well in advance!!
Hope this helps - and best of luck with your venture!
Parrotile,
Thanks, that does help a lot (Worse than I hoped, Better than I feared!).
I just copied the sample numbers straight from the journal, but after leafing through a couple binders that date back to the blissful ebola ignorance of February, when a yellow card, natural insect repellent and avoiding uncooked food that might be contaminated with rat crap was adequate protectionc from VHFs.
I am relieved the consensus was to pay (significantly) more for the higher quality parts and the service depth of very large European manufacturers, instead of accepting a less expensive, less stringent, and relative "DIY" Chinese offer mis-characterized as "Tur[n]key", and we're only processing fruit products, no fruit bats or botulinum. The CIPs should do their jobs under anticipated daily conditions, perhaps some minor adjustments increasing already significant excess steam capacity or a few a more minutes cycle time, but the manufacturers certainly have the bench depth (and much larger clients facing the same reality and probabilities) so those processes should work themselves out with time and dialogue over the issues highlighted.
The "unanticipated" workplace accident scenarios look a bit uglier than I thought, particularly in the "inconceivable" event that a zombie walks in and pukes up 100 billion little zombies per milliliter on the shop floor (or God forbid a conveyor), but work stoppage and spoilage will happen anyway when some someone inevitably ignores the training and signage or omniscient CDC/OHSA protocols and puts their hand in the wrong place. On the bright side, management has a much heightened awareness and stronger concern for the health of staff.
Being a greenfield is actually beneficial right now, since if we had broken ground last year we would have gotten it wrong the first time, in hindsight (and it would be much more expensive to correct). If "they" don't contain this in West Africa, more than just the bottom of the global supply and food chains will face make huge CapEx costs for remediation of a new permanent reality (in addition to the trendy disposable Lakeland Industries OpEx spree that I only read about) and then seek a way to pass those costs on to their cash strapped customers.
This venture is definitely an adventure, but they all sort of are...
-
"150 TCID50 ebolavirus for pig inoculation"
EBOLAVIRUS - INFECTIOUS DOSE: Viral hemorrhagic fevers have an infectious dose of 1 - 10 organisms by aerosol in non-human primates.
Ebolavirus - Pathogen Safety Data Sheets
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php
Thank you.
Check out natriumchloriT, add 15 drops of acid for 5 drops of chlorit. Google MMS malaria. You can purchase it when it is declared as a water cleanser. Wasserreiniger. Cant by it at Globus however ;)
So I can buy sodium chlorite if it's to "clean" the water that is strangely off the charts in terms of water hardness in an obsessively clean country, but I can only buy watered down bleach to clean with...
Sometime you just have to laugh it off.
Obongo has already appointed a czar. Are you feeling safer yet?
Same here in belgium and after a assesment of out airports, they concluded they need a different kind of latex gloves and different soap to wash their hands.
WE'RE ALL SAFE NOW!!
THIS IS THE DAY WE DEFEATED EBOLA MY FRIENDS!!
MARK MY WORDS!!!
"Just to be clear, the job title "czar" doesn’t exist in the Obama Administration" Says Obama's Whitehouse Blog on September 16, 2009
How about "czarina"?
Valerie Jarret has that one covered.
Yes, because lawyers make excellent doctors. Besides, the Wookie's wife didn't know because he got bad advice from the CDC (according to that most truthful source for all things political, the NYT): http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/us/amid-assurances-on-ebola-obama-is-said-to-seethe.html
The buck never stops there.
They told me they fixed it! I *trusted* them to *fix* it! It's not my fault!
-Lando Calrissian
Obongo has already appointed a czar. Are you feeling safer yet?
Obongo has told us that the economy is better, but we don't feel it yet.
So don't worry.
You are safe. You just don't feel it yet.
Maine teacher merely visits Dallas, is placed on leave:
http://tinyurl.com/qdsqzrg
ZH, Ebola fear monger epicenter. Be afraid sheep . this place is pathetic
The way Ebola kills you makes you much more cautious,I never worried about other diseases. If there was an outbreak it will destroy the economy before you can blink an eye.Do you really want to chance it ?
Ebola = 28 days later (fiction)
Prove it, but you can't so just STFU.
ZERO Americans have died from ebola.
So far...
And if it is a conspiracy then why ? Either way you better be ready and worried.
Bahhh prove Ebola is real oh yeah you heard it from a shiny box. Must be true
Alright dickhead i'll give you another chance, PROVE IT. And if not then explain the conspiracy or STFU.
Unless you are some kind of molecular biologist a shiny box told you it was a hoax. What the fuck is with the holier than thou, I am smarter than everyone else in the world attitude? Just what the fuck does this kind of worthless, self aggrandizement accomplish? Are you really so small a person in real life that you feel the need to spend time anonymously telling a bunch of other anonymous people how much smarter you are than they are on a fucking comment section? You are a fucking loser and your opinion means nothing to most, who believe me, are more intelligent than you.
Just the fact that you pompously post your pea brained opinion as if it is the immutable truth tells anyone else with an ounce of brains what a moron you really are.
"Be afraid sheep . this place is pathetic"
And yet you keep reading AND posting...ironic or merely idiotic?
Just trying to help a brother out. Nice come back though ;)
I am actually feeling slightly less anxious as it seems only the health care workers have got it so far. It may actually be harder to contract than i feared. Excuse me i have to vomit and i am in the mall
Check the "contents": "Diced Carrots" in a creamy sauce is fine. Anything dark brown / black (with added "coffee grounds" perhaps) is not such good news.
Any kind of reddish background, "check your Life Insurance is current" would be my best recommendation! :-O
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://goo.gl/yioYBZ
Venice didn't know the disease was carried by the fleas on the rats and the rats still made it to shore. Similarity is the CDC claiming it is not airborne, and they have the incubation period off.
Fucking Wright Brothers!
the last two sentences are crap
I'll bet that the elites have already been immunized...
As long as it'st not airborn, it can't get into their ivory towers!
Give all new arivals from west Africa a tour of the white house.
And silver clipboards, to take notes.
And borrow Obozo's pen.
Maybe they'll be hired as cooks and give the White House the Obola banquet.
It doesn't get serious for these people until they themselves actually get it.
Also need to give the new arrivals a tour of both houses of Congress. If they are not too exhausted after shaking hands with the mucky mucks bring them over to the Treasury Dept., Fed Reserve, Dept. of Justice and IRS headquarters. I could go on but you get the idea.
Why hasn't any of Duncan's family members contracted ebola yet? They were all cramped together in that tiny apartment.
Maybe they have and they're just not telling us
Listen,
From what I heard they did not. The mother was very aware about how to clean with bleach, no touching policy, etc...
That's what I read.
How does the worlds largest military "lose" tanks, weapons, and planes? Why hasn't ISIS, a radical muslim group, gone after Israel?
Why did 900 US troops go to Donetsk, yet 3,000 went to West Africa? Could the Red Cross in Liberia be under threat from locals, exposing what the Red Cross is really doing, hence the need for 3,000 soldiers?
These are all very interesting questions.
Obama, desires and covets, the Destruction and Demise of Israel...he just doesn't want his 'fingerprints' on it.
Nonsense. He's the worst tribal ass kisser since Churchill
hmmm.
Listen,
Glen Beck is that you?
If only he did "desire and covet"...
"These are all very interesting questions."
Bravo. Perspicacious.
Because they are all dead,maybe.
been 21 days yet?
Very simple. The Federal law called HIPAA mandates that if anyone asks that a diagnosis be kept private, a hospital must do everything in its power to keep it that way. That, or perhaps Duncan knew he was infected, he was a smart guy, and once he started having symptoms kept himself isolated from them.
Smart is not a word I would use to describe this creature.
Let's be honest, Thomas Eric Duncan knew he had Ebola. That's why none of his family has it! He knew his only chance to live was to come to America (why he lied) and get healthcare. Of course, they are pulling the ridiculous race card saying he died cause he's black. No, he died because he was ignorant to pretend like he didn't know what he had. He lied and is dead, but has now infected two young innocent American citizens. I feel no sorrow for him.
A little quick to jump on the psychopath bandwagon, aren't we, Cynthia? Funny how you can derive the evil intentions of this guy without pausing a bit to think about reality.
"...Let's be honest, Thomas Eric Duncan knew he had Ebola..."
Forget honesty - let's look at the reality of U.S. State Department bureaucracy. How long do you think it takes someone in Liberia to get a passport and visa to get to the U.S.? Hours? Days? Weeks? I'm guessing several months. He probably bought tickets months in advance as well, otherwise he would have paid thousands for a last-minute ticket. So any notion of him fleeing for medical care at the last minute are nonesense.
Let's look at this evil bastard's recent life: Regular working guy - drove the general manager of an air cargo company around. Wasn't selling crack or trafficking in human organs. The Times claims he was 'terminated' in mid-September, but the guy has obviously taken pains to arrange a visa and buy an airline ticket for the end of September. His boss said he planned to leave and his neighbors said he was going to live in America for a couple of years and then move back. He was engaged to Louise Troh according to her Pastor. They have a son, Karsiah, in college in Texas. They met in a refugee camp in 2000, thanks to the civil war and US/UK financially backing insurgent psychopaths because they wanted the reigning psychopath, Charles Taylor, removed. Interestingly, a coalition of muslim and christian women finally ended the bloodshed in 2003, but I digress.
Back to that evil bastard Thomas 'Erik' Duncan and his last fiendish days in Paynesville. Marthalene Williams, his 19-year-old neighbor, was having a difficult pregnancy and her husband wasn't in town. She was seven months along on Sept. 15th and had developed a high fever. No projectile vomiting, no bleeding eyes, no prior ebola contacts. Her family thought it was maybe malaria or typhoid. Her family tried to call an ambulance for her, but none were available. Her father and younger brother were going to take her in a cab, and the demonic Erik offered to help. Imagine that - helping your sick, pregnant 19-year-old neighbor when her husband was out of town.
Evil Erik, Marthalene and her father and brother set off in a cab to the nearest medical facility: Blessing Home Clinic. They diagnosed her with malaria (confirmed by the staff to reporters a week later) and gave her an IV. When she started convulsing, they told Erik and her father to take her to a regular hospital. Note: not an ebola treatment facility, just a regular hospital. They were turned away by two different hospitals after hours of driving. All the beds were full at both hospitals because of the ebola outbreak, not because they were ebola treatment centers. Nobody even examined Marthalene at either hospital and as far as her family knew, she probably had a very bad case of malaria. They brought her home and Erik carried her wrapped in a blanket from the cab to her house.
My idle speculation: they all knew about the ebola outbreak. They knew how infectious it was. If Marthalene was bleeding from every orifice in her body, then they would have figured it was ebola (and so would the clinic). Instead, they brought her home and the etire family cared for her like you would anyone else with malaria.
Marthalene passed away that night. Her family figured it was from low blood pressure (septic shock) from the malaria. Her family washed her body and prepared her for burial even though they knew you shouldn't do that for someone that died of ebola. They didn't think she died of ebola, that's why they washed her body. They were not "in denial" that she had ebola. Family, friends and neighbors came the next day to pay their respects and kissed and touched Marthalene's body. Why? Because they didn't think she died of ebola.
Now this may be hard to believe, but the average person in Liberia does not carry around a pocket PCR assay for Zaire ebolavirus. You have to go to a hospital (and actually get admitted) and they do that kind of stuff for you. They buried Marthalene without ever getting a diagnosis of ebola from anyone.
A few days later, Evil Erik goes to the airport in Monrovia for his long-awaited flight. They take his temperature at the airport gate, at the airport entrance and again before he got on the plane. The do this to everyone. Erik felt fine. He answered the questionaire about contact with anyone with ebola and replied no. There is no question about "Did you touch anyone with malaria?"
A little over a week later, Erik is admitted to the hospital. Our crack MSM calls around in Liberia and finds out that Marthalene's brother and father have just died of ebola and her husband and mother are in ebola treatment centers. They knew that Marthalene had ebola BECAUSE everyone that was caring for her became sick or died about the time Erik went to the hospital. Somehow, this get's translated into "That virus-filled hemmorhagic fever bastard KNEW he had ebola because he knew Marthalene had ebola".
"...No, he died because he was ignorant to pretend like he didn't know what he had..."
Yeah, those devious black people - allways trying to pull one over on us chalkies!
Unless Thomas Erik Duncan had a time machine and traveled two weeks into the future, he would have no idea that Marthalene had ebola at the time and that she infected her father, her brother and himself. He damn sure wouldn't hang around his fiancee's apartment exposing everyone else to ebola if he thought HE had it. Just the opposite, he would insist on being admitted the first time for that exceptional American medical care. Wouldn't you if that was your 'only chance to live', or do you figure he was so spineless that - although he supposedly knew he had ebola - he just took the antibiotics the first time and left without any objections? That's just stupid. If he came here FOR ebola care, he would damn sure have been pounding his fists on the counter screaming that he may have been exposed to ebola.
"...He lied and is dead, but has now infected two young innocent American citizens..."
Do you write for CNN? Would this have been less tragic if he infected two old Belgian geezers of questionable moral values?
"...I feel no sorrow for him..."
Well, I'm no doctor, but I would say you have a disease far worse than ebola if that's true. Try to look beyond the NYT and CNN's poorly-researched tabloid news and realize that there's plenty of decent human beings in Africa, not just the cartoon charactatures of filty, dishonest, impoverished black people that live to game the system.
if everything you write it's true, this it's exactly why there should be and should have been a full commercial travel ban from any country with a reported infection months ago.
the system is the problem, cases like Thomas Duncan are just symptoms.
"...cases like Thomas Duncan are just symptoms."
No...A symptom is a statistical chance occurrence of a phenomena which some may exhibit and some which may not.
Thomas Duncan was a Human Being.
Therein lies the problem. Human lives are destroyed as a result.
Human beings are not exempt from statistics. Thinking that they are is exactly the fuck up we're looking at.
"Regular working guy - drove the general manager of an air cargo company around. Wasn't selling crack or trafficking in human organs. The Times claims he was 'terminated' in mid-September, but the guy has obviously taken pains to arrange a visa and buy an airline ticket for the end of September."
Presumably, such a job did not pay much. Such jobs dont pay well here in the States, and are unlikely to be so in West Africa. So how did he afford a plane ticket probably equivalent to a year ot two's pay? If he didn't save for it, he had help. From whom and for what purpose?
"...If he didn't save for it, he had help. From whom and for what purpose?..."
Hmmm... maybe check with the other 25 million or so East European, Asian, South American and African immigrants to the United States. Their story seems mighty suspicious, too.
But she DID have Ebola, so she would have been exhibiting the signs of Ebola. And it was in advanced stages when they took her to the hospital because she died hours later. Not sure where you found such detailed information as there were conflicting reports from Duncan's nephew, who first said Duncan told him that he didn't help the neighbor, then changed and said he could have. Also:
"Days before he became the first person diagnosed with Ebola on American soil, Thomas Eric Duncan answered "no" to questions about whether he had cared for a patient with the deadly virus.
Before leaving Liberia, Duncan also answered no to a question about whether he had touched the body of someone who died in an area affected by the disease, said Binyah Kesselly, board chairman of the Liberia Airport Authority.
Witnesses say Duncan had been helping Ebola patients in Liberia. Liberian community leader Tugbeh Chieh Tugbeh said Duncan was caring for an Ebola-infected patient at a residence in Paynesville City, just outside Monrovia."
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/02/health/ebola-us/
"They knew how infectious it was. If Marthalene was bleeding from every orifice in her body, then they would have figured it was ebola (and so would the clinic). Instead, they brought her home and the etire family cared for her like you would anyone else with malaria.
Marthalene passed away that night. Her family figured it was from low blood pressure (septic shock) from the malaria. Her family washed her body and prepared her for burial even though they knew you shouldn't do that for someone that died of ebola. They didn't think she died of ebola, that's why they washed her body. They were not "in denial" that she had ebola. Family, friends and neighbors came the next day to pay their respects and kissed and touched Marthalene's body. Why? Because they didn't think she died of ebola. "
But people in the country are aware as it has been running rampant and officials have been posting signage in affected areas to warn people of symptoms.
"Now this may be hard to believe, but the average person in Liberia does not carry around a pocket PCR assay for Zaire ebolavirus. You have to go to a hospital (and actually get admitted) and they do that kind of stuff for you."
So you think anyone who belives he boarded the plane while knowing he had been exposed to Ebola believes this, nice ad hominem attack.
"not just the cartoon charactatures of filty, dishonest, impoverished black people that live to game the system."
"...But she DID have Ebola, so she would have been exhibiting the signs of Ebola..."
Is that what CNN told you, doc? A woman in her seventh month of pregnancy with a stomach ache? Yeah, that's pretty rare and should have tipped them off immediately. You might want to check with your mom about that. She was having a difficult pregnancy and was basically housebound. Nobody in their neighborhood had ebola, so there was no reason to suspect she was ever exposed to anyone with ebola. She starts running a fever and feeling really bad. Miscarriage? Infection? Malaria? Nah - it's obvious... ebola, of course.
So they pretty much don't know exactly what's wrong and take her to the local clinic (nurses, not doctors) and the nurses are pretty sure she has malaria. Maybe she did actually have malaria, too and tested positive - I don't know. The nurses know about ebola and wouldn't have even touched her, much less tested for malaria or start an IV on her if she had obvious signs of ebola. They would have thrown her the hell out of there and blowtorched the clinic. Marthalene has a seizure after that so the nurses tell her father to take her to a hospital with a proper maternity ward. Which he attempted to do - twice.
So you're suggesting that during this entire time, everyone who came in contact with Marthalene knew she had ebola by her 'obvious signs' but didn't care about being infected? Hell, I would have to discount that right at the taxi driver - someone who would know all about the ebola outbreak and sure as hell wouldn't cart around a symptomatic victim for two or three hours.
In retrospect, yes - she had some signs of ebola. Common sense says she didn't have obvious, definative signs of ebola to all the people that were exposed to her given their willingness to be around her. If this was a mud hut in the deep jungle and it was just family, then I could believe they didn't want to assume the worse. Taxi drivers are generally less sympathetic and don't ebola themselves for tips.
"...So you think anyone who belives he boarded the plane while knowing he had been exposed to Ebola believes this, nice ad hominem attack..."
It's called sarcasm, not logic. An ad hominem fallacy would be something like a sneaky, dishonest, immoral black Liberian bastard knowingly exposed himselft to ebola and then flees to his relatives home in America to be cured of his self-inflicted disease. See the difference? I guess you did since you added that thought at the end. (just kidding... interested to hear whatever you left off of your post).
So where did you find your extremely detailed account of everything? Gotta source? Or is this your "idle speculation" Doc?
"In retrospect, yes - she had some signs of ebola" so you're backtracking.....
It seemed you were implying Cynthia was prejudiced (alluding that was her motivation for her argument - ad hominem attack) because she believed he boarded the plane knowing he could possibly be infected. When this would be a logical deduction about a person who had been tending a sick person in an Ebola ravished country who subsequently passed away and then who proceeded to not be truthful on questions during the airport screening.
How f*king thick-headed are you? The first time anybody knew Marthalene died of ebola was when Erik was admitted to the hospital and the media called Liberia and found out that other members of the Williams family had just fallen ill or died. Do you understand that there was a span of ten days between her death and the others becomming ill? You can Google the links as well as I can by her name - Marthalene Williams. I will be happy to do that if you at least do me the courtesy of acknowledging the most basic point of my argument first (whether you agree or not) the time sequence:
Up until Sept. 15th, nobody in Duncan's little neighborhood had ebola or died from it, but people were generally well aware of the outbreak in Monrovia.
On Sept. 15th, Marthalene's family, the neighbors, Duncan, the taxi driver and the clinic nurses DID NOT THINK SHE HAD EBOLA based on her symptoms.
On Sept. 16th after her death, Marthalene's family, the neighbors, frends and relatives DID NOT THINK SHE DIED OF EBOLA based on her symptoms. They all thought she died of malaria or septic shock from pregnancy complication. Nobody would have came to her funeral if they thought she died of ebola.
On Sept. 17th - Sept. 19th, Nobody else in Duncan's neighborhood got sick or died, nobody thought Marthalene died of ebola, and Duncan had ZERO reason to think he had contact with an ebola victim. The airport didn't ask if he cared for anyone who was sick - they asked if he had contact with or cared for any EBOLA victims. He answered the question at the airport honestly. He had a lower than normal temperature and was not sick when he boarded the plane - no reason for him to think he was infected at that point in time.
On Sept. 24th he was sick and went to the hospital - he didn't know what he had. Not that he would have known anyway, but nobody else in his old Paynesville neighborhood was was diagnosed with ebola or died from it by the 24th - they were just starting to get sick like Duncan. Everyone knew (or should have known) at the Texas hospital that he was from Liberia. He said so, so he had no reason to think they 'overlooked' it. The doctors didn't test him for ebola or say he had ebola when they let him go. At that point, he had no reason to think he had ebola if the f*king DOCTORS didn't say he did - they told him that he had some kind of 'common low-grade viral disease'. It's in his records.
Between Sept. 24th and the 28th in Liberia, Marthalene's brother and father became very ill and died. I think the first time anyone said anything about ebola was the hospital that her brother died at - they tested him and said it was ebola. That's the fist point in time that everyone figured out Marthalene must have had ebola and infected everyone else. At that point, EVERYONE in his old neighborhood knew Marthalene probably died from ebola and they were all exposed. IF Duncan would have phoned his old neighbors during those four days, he would have realized he most certainly had ebola and went back to the hospital. Apparently, he did not and had no idea about the oubreak in his old neighborhood. He just stayed at his finacee's house getting sicker and sicker.
On Sept. 28th, his fiancee's daughter freaked out at his condition and called an ambulance. She was a healthcare worker and specifically warned the ambulance crew that Duncan just came from Liberia - an ebola country. They responded by masking up and took him to the hospital, then left him in the waiting room with everyone else. The ER didn't even get to him for two or three hours. The ER staff should have been warned by the ambulance crew that they just dumped a Liberian with a fever that was vomiting and dehydrated IN THE WAITING ROOM.
There was still no reason to think Duncan 'knew' he had ebola or knew anything about the events in his old neighborhood until the ER finally dragged him in back and the doctors flipped out. That's probably the first time Duncan started getting worried that he may actually have ebola.
I'm confident that enough reasonably credible sources are out there to support all the above. They don't prove what Duncan thought, they just show that virtually everyone around Marthalene in her last days didn't seem to act like people in Liberia do around someone with ebola. Of course it's circumstantial. If you contend that some/all of those people were willfully ignorant or suicidal (including Duncan), then I have noting to counter.
He was in a country decimated by Ebola and caring for someone who, in fact, did have Ebola, and would therefore have been SYMPTOMATIC. Sorry, but even one with a minute amount of common sense would conclude that he knew that he had been exposed. Also, Marthalene had very close contact with someone who was also SYMPTOMATIC. Possibly someone in the neighborhood or the surrounding area. You DO NOT know that nobody had the virus in the neighborhood prior to Marthalene contracting Ebola.
This article disputes your sourceless claims.
"Duncan had ridden in a taxi with Marthalene, who was seven months pregnant and desperately ill, as they crisscrossed the Liberian capital, Monrovia, going from a clinic to two hospitals, trying to get her admitted. With them were her father, Emmanuel, and brother Sonny Boy.
From the clinic, where she was given an intravenous drip but deteriorated sharply, they were sent to an Ebola treatment unit and then another, at a time when there were no Ebola beds available in the city."
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-81572642/
"Thomas Eric Duncan who is in his mid 40's was a tenant at the Williams' home and was allegedly having an affair with their 19 year old daughter Marthelene Williams, sources told us. After her death, he wouldboard a flight four days later to his family in Texas."
"Resident informed Tmz Liberia Magazine that after her death neighbors were told that she had died from a car accident. "
http://www.mytmzliberia.net/
He lied about touching someone who had died
"Before leaving Liberia, Duncan also answered no to a question about whether he had touched the body of someone who died in an area affected by the disease, said Binyah Kesselly, board chairman of the Liberia Airport Authority."
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/02/health/ebola-us/
I noticed you didn't bother to include the first article's title:
Texas Ebola patient aided Liberia woman thought to have malaria
I'm giving slightly more weight to what's clearly described in the title than the brief, odd remark about being sent to an "ebola unit".
The author of that article, Robyn Dixon, also co-wrote this article published a few hours before the above one:
Dallas officials say they had to order Ebola family to stay home
Dixon was the reporter in Liberia, so this information would have come directly from her. It's odd that she would specify 'ebola unit' in one article and not the other.
The TMZ Liberia story and link here:
DID TEXAS EBOLA VICTIM CONTRACT THE VIRUS THROUGH HIS PREGNANT GIRLFRIEND?
seems suspect. The author runs media outlets for the Liberian ex-pat community in Minnesota. Some of the details seem off. The article sounds like rumors than news with some content 'borrowed' from other media outlets. Plenty of 'sources said' without even hinting who that might be in Paynesville or Duncan's 72nd SKD neighborhood. No other news outlet covering this (LATimes, Dallas Morning News, NYT, cable news) seems to have come across any of the scandal. The proported affair does not explain the suicidal behavior of a knowingly-infected person becomming very sick, and stil walking out of a hospital with a handful of antibiotics and Tylenol after the first visit. I'll concede that an affair would have been motivation to help her. The author does, however, repeat what was reported everywhere else, "What is still unclear is whether he knew that she was infected with the Ebola virus disease (EVD)."
The CNN story is just one of the many that keep re-reporting Binyah Kessellly's (LAA guy) conjecture that Duncan knew he was exposed to ebola and therefor lied on the screening questionnaire. I'm sure HE was told by reporters that Marthalene died of ebola, so Kesselly is responding to his (or the reporter's) assumption that Duncan already knew this before his flight on the Sept. 19th. The Liberian president also made comments about his eventual prosecution ("leave it up to the lawyers") with the still-unfounded assumption that he knew he had ebola. Neither has cited a shred of evidence that supports their assumption that Duncan KNEW Marthalene had and died of ebola. They simply speak as if it were fact.
"...He was in a country decimated by Ebola and caring for someone who, in fact, did have Ebola, and would therefore have been SYMPTOMATIC..."
Why did the clinic diagnose her with malaria if she had OBVIOUS, difinative signs of ebola? Why did they bother with the clinic when they knew that there's nothing a clinic can do for someone with ebola? Why didn't they take her directly to one of the ebola treatment centers right from the start?
"...Sorry, but even one with a minute amount of common sense would conclude that he knew that he had been exposed..."
Duncan didn't know anything that the father and brother didn't know. Why did THEY sit around for days AFTER they started getting sick if they knew Marthalene had ebola? Why did the father and brother let the family prepare her body if they knew? Why did they have a wake with her body if they knew she had ebola? Are you suggesting the whole family knew, or that they were all ignorant or in denial and Duncan, alone, was able to figure this out?
This post is getting too long, but I'll offer two things: Duncan, himself, said on his deathbed that he though she died of a miscarriage. His neighbor, Irene Senyou, was interviewed and specifically said he didn't know Marthalene had ebola.
I also am aware that I'm seemingly one of a dozen or so people on earth that believe he didn't know. I concede that you seem to have the rest of the planet squarely behind you.
Do not believe professional-bullshit-artist "news" sources.
The "reservoir" or reservoirS (may be more than one, even several, and they may change depending on conditions we can't identify) is in the forests of West Africa (and perhaps other parts of Africa). WE DON'T KNOW. CERTAINLY THE ECONOMIST DOESN'T KNOW. If one reads books about outbreaks and scientists who figured out only after-the-fact what happened, you'll soon see that identifying the reseroirs won't happen soon if ever, for various reasons having to do with the nature of the forests which cannot be changed by man unless the forests are eradicated which will completely change the nature of earth. Everything's connected.
The Economist is a Rothschild mouthpiece.
Which would explain why the Economist would try to protect the Rothschilds' large investments in West Africa. However, those facts would be like an ebola enema to the nutter logic that the ebola outbreak is actually a Rothschild depopulation plot.
Perhaps there was some Gates-Rothschild throwdown and falling out at the the Bilderberg meeting in Hertfordshire that was never reported in the press.
The logical hypocrisy of some of the conspiracy theorists can make the cancerous logical hypocrisy of the Hasbararats seem benign.
Urban redneck, I would say to you that I am a proud, card-carrying Tin Foil Hat Conspiracy Theorist extraordinnaire.
However, I like to think that I judiciously collect and evaluate info from numerous, oftentimes conflicting sources, before I draw conclusions.
That being said, if you are unfamiliar with the tactic of 'poisoning the well' you MAY be witnessing/experiencing same right this moment.
This is not the venue to expound upon these topics at length, but an astute observer may, through noticing anomalies, incongruities - especially in speech versus deeds and - the big enchilada to an information junky such as myself - what is NOT said or given much prominence in the media, may start to recognize patterns where truth emerges. Keep your eyes and ears open, Sir.
If you're judiciously collecting and [continuously] evaluating, then you must be one of those crypto-tinfoil hatters!
Seriously, the ability to distinguish between between theory and fact, and to re-examine and amend theories based on evidence not in possession at the time of formulation has been slipping around here for while. At the same time various people pointing to weblinks that are merely the theories of others and presenting them as "evidence" has been increasing.
Just so, urban redneck ... just so.
With several tens of thousands of pairs of eyeballs reading these ZH articles on a daily basis, an ambitious 'info disseminator' may have fertile ground with which to work.
The Charles Hughes Smith article on the first missing Malaysian flight - accompanied by much shockingly inept disinfo trolling - would prompt a tin foil hatter (real or crypto) to go "Hmmm..."
Yes, it's right up there with the FT for its status-quo perpetuating, bankster promoting propaganda.
This strategy of hoping to catch and contain whatever ebola embers fly our way is utter insanity and anyone who suggest to dig a fire line around the main firestorm in west africa by banning travel is being labeled as paranoid and racist. This bizarro world keeps getting more bizarre.
It only takes 30 seconds for a small kitchen fire to get out of control. http://www.stillmanfire.com/page/2/
West Africa is the fire. The rest of the world is filled with dense naive human populations the fuel.
We still use firebreaks and backfires to stop forest fires so if your analogy is any good then goodbye to west Africa would be the right thing to do. It isn't a fire and your analogy is bogus but containment is the only way to fight it. Don't expect gov. to do anything right because they won't.
WE HAVE 'TO BE CALM' and just 'take' our Demise, like GOOD LIL SHEEP ! REMEMBER, BE CALM !
baaahhhh-baaahhhh-baaahhhhh
controlled flight/fight is calm and can be advantageous.
Here's a hint....what will be economically painful will be dealing with hundreds if not thousands of "false alarms" besides the real cases that will pop up & grow, because authorities are simply not capable of or willing to taking responsibility.
If you want to minimize econcomic damage, you take harsh measures to contain the virus where it began - Africa & don't permit any incoming flights to land in your country. Period. At the same time, you send medical & humanitarian aid to the place of origin to stem the spread. The only exception you consider is if someone is willing to be quarantined for 25 days in isolation before leaving Africa & is examined before being allowed to leave to ensure they don't have the virus. End of Story.
Half measures will likely result in the very thing the authorities are tyring to prevent - an outbreak, panic among the entire developed world's population, paralysis & severe econcomic damage - all very preventable with easily enforced measures.
"If you want to minimize econcomic damage, you take harsh measures to contain the virus where it began"
Absolutely correct.
Think of the direct and indirect consequences of T.E. Duncan. We spent an estimated 500K on his medical care, we have a ship with a quarantined passenger, we have two nurses shipped and receiving the kind of care that Heads of State receive that will surely be 5 times EACH what T.E. Duncan received not including transport, possibly more. We have meetings, a new "Czar", CDC hearings and what not. All told, the one case will be a hundreds of millions if not a Billion dollars at least. I suspect that there are more cases too that we are not being told. This is why I believe that the outbreak is legitimate. They are reporting it, but news reporters are trying to use language that keeps folks calm like Shep Smith whereas ISIS speak always maintains the "under your bed" musings. What of Nina Pham's boyfriend? What of the UT patient in Austin? What of Duncan's family members? I think they are trying to keep this lid on until after the elections.
I could be wrong and appreciate any cogent debate. Trolls can eat dicks.
I think you are correct that that they are downplaying it. Every decision that they make smacks of politics and not science. The problem is that there are real world consequences to their actions, regardless of whether their decision making process is dictated by politics or by prudence and science. If they would just put into place a policy that says that anybody who has been in a West African country within the past 21 days has a choice of submitting to quarantine or of returning to whence they came, on top of banning casual travel from the infected countries, it would be something.
But then there's Mexico and Central America. If it gets into there and becomes a full blown pandemic down there, it'll come up here with people either fleeing or looking for better medical care.
On top of that, it need not become so virulent that half the population is likely to catch it to totally fuck us. It only needs to infect enough people to motivate people to stop going to work. Then our JIT distribution system starts to break down, and that leads to a whole host of other problems, including other diseases. How many people need to get infected for that to happen? 100,000? 1,000,000? No matter what the number is, if it is hit, it will be just as deadly as an ebola outbreak that does infect a large chunk of the population.
For those who fear that kind of scenario, learn how to make soap from fats/oils and wood ash. Hygiene will be important.
Millions dead from either ebola or the economic implosion caused by the fear.
Appointing a political hack as ebola czar, makes me considerably more nervous as to
the extent of TPB's lying.
The timing on all this stinks worse than Africa.I hate to be a conspiracy nut, but the whole timing looks
planned,not serendipity at play.Is it real.I think so, but deliberate.
There are scientists stating that ebloa has already evolved to become more virulent:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2798086/mutant-ebola-warning-leading-u-s-scientist-warns-deadly-virus-changing-contagious.html
Also, consider the economic impacts as people decide not to spend time in a narrow metal tube with 200 other people who may, or may, not have "colds."
sushi
Thanks for the link: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2798086/mutant-ebola-warning-leading-u-s-scientist-warns-deadly-virus-changing-contagious.html
The description below is of the affected countries in AF is from the article. Do US government of TPTB want the description to fit USA soon? If not, cordon sanitaire of USA is required, and it's required months ago, not tomorrow. Useless Ebola "czars" aside.
"Communities lie in ruins, thousands of children have been orphaned, millions face starvation but the virus continues its unprecedented pace, invading and destroying vast swathes of these countries."
You're thinking of this "narrow metal tube" - http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WdMofrAJjzE/T5fjyl_BVlI/AAAAAAAAAQI/I5ck2HXT22M/s1600/article-1246145-0805E84C000005DC-903_634x329.jpg
Remember that many, many more travel twice a day via this "narrow metal tube" - packed in like sardines!!http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/ST_20130429_RSMTR290WD8_3634075e.jpg
Northern Hemisphere "Coughs and Colds" season now arriving at a Metropolitan area near you perhaps? Just ONE of these might be your "undetected index case" - http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/27/article-2672693-1F330AC100000578-494_634x419.jpg (London Waterloo - caused by just ONE incident).
I have for years kept a 2 year supply of soap in the cupboard (very cheap and never goes off). If TSHTF and there is no soap available after 2 years then odds are running out of soap will be the least of my worries.
I disagree that it will be the least of your worries. Again, hygene will be terribly important. Simply being able to wash your hands on a regular basis could save your life, or at least prevent you from suffering though a nasty illness that is not a problem in 1st world countries these days.
pain_and_soros
I want to upvote you but your green and red buttons appear to be locked or blocked. Censorship at ZH? This happens often when fraught questions are asked or fraught opinions are expressed, why is that?
...seconds later, it's back on.
And back off again!
Still off.
It's a bug with ZH. Notice the italics that begin his post. You cannot click to upvote him. You can, however, tab through links until you get to the upvote link and hit enter. Some browsers allow you to click right before his post to set the position that you begin tabbing from.
I couldn't upvote pain and soros either...
"Half measures will likely result in the very thing the authorities are tyring to prevent..."
SOME authorities (Africa, Connecticut, maybe Texas) are trying to prevent. But WashDC, I don't think so. And wherever planes from Africa are entering and leaving around the world (might want to add boats), authorities are NOT trying to prevent, IMO.
half measures are what they did with the dead banks. dragging it out. they drag this out and there could be 30% of us left. ebola isn't an imaginary balance sheet marked to wishful thinking. it is an escaped invasive species that is going to thrive in a naive population.
Maybe the elites really do have a vaccine and they are going to let this burn through society? Nazi Germany part II. The stealth version.
It is obvious that a bad guy could take this on a plane. Why not try to stop that. unless that coincided with the larger plan. just doesn't add up.
There are conflicting reports about the lab supervisor on that Carnival cruise ship. US news sources are stating that she is asymptomatic, while Belize says she is and refused to allow her to be transported to the airport and evacuated, diplomatically upsetting the US. Initial reports indicated that she was being held on a tender between the ship and Belize, which indicates to me that she became noticeably ill on the tender. The ship wouldn't take her back, and Belize wouldn't allow her to enter. I imagine pressure was brought to bear on Carnival Cruise Lines. They are fucked, and so are the crew and passangers on that ship. I suspect Belize has the right of it in this case; otherwise, I doubt that anyone would be aware of her possible exposure, and she would have gone on her merry tourist way. Mexico refused to allow the ship to dock also, so it is heading back to Texas. If they were smart (which they are not) they would evacuate her by helicopter and hold the passengers and crew on that ship for at least 21 days before they allowed them to disembark. If she is, in fact, infected that makes the Duncan rate of spread 1:3, at least, greater than the claimed rate of 1:2 in Africa. Isn't it odd that 2 out of the 3 were traveling at the time they became symptomatic?
things that go bump, should some or all of what you just posted, (btw, thanks for the post) prove to have actually occurred, this should show one and all how a real world example of how this shit plays out.
Everyone, & I mean everyone, will instinctively put themselves in the place of the crew, of the fellow passengers, of the Mexican and Belize governments, and recognize they want no fucking part of any of this shit. After a brief reflection, people will also feel extreme pity as well as fear for this poor lab technician who - but for the grace of God - could be our very own Miffed.
We may be mere days or weeks away from this fear transmuting into outright rage. It should be very interesting to see how this continues to evolve. Once again thank you for the post.
Sorry, I should have added links to the stories. I found the initial one from Belize in my history from yesterday afternoon.
http://belizean.com/belize-confirms-patient-with-ebola-symptoms-on-cruis...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/10/17/cruise-ship...
Here is an article from someone who is also on the ship: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ebola/11171669/Were-a-floating...
He does not appear to believe she is symptomatic, but the reactions of the other passengers has been quite dramatic. I imagine they will all want their money back.
I should also mention, this person had no personal contact with Duncan, so I am thinking that the labs in most hospitals are not going to be able to prevent their technicians from becoming infected, as proper precautions cannot be taken.
I just quickly skimmed through the Belize newspaper report, including several of the comments. That is must reading for anyone who wishes to see how human nature responds in these types of situations.
I was particularly struck by the statement that the Belize Coast Guard is preventing anyone including the Belezian (sp?) pilot from leaving the ship. That is hard-nosed, basic level 101 government policy to protect your population and country.
Belize doesn't suffer from our exceptionalism.
Interesting exchange and links. Thanks. This is us at our best.
Bump, proper precautions most decidely CAN be taken by labs. Don't do lab tests.
Look, containing this in hospitals is not just about PPE. It's about how you treat sick people. If you intubate and dialyze and resuscitate and do lab tests up the kazoo, you absolutely WILL infect health care workers. It's a Level IV virus, it can't be contained if it's business as usual except for some special PPE.
Treatment needs to on the African model, rehydration salts, rehydration IV as the maximal level of intervention. Antibiotics for secondary infection, given orally. Treatment needs to be outside of hospitals, in temporary (disposable) shelters like tents. Vitamin C, whatever, but our standard high-tech interventions need to be forgotten about. If the low-tech interventions aren't enough to save you, the high-tech likely wouldn't anyway.
Unfortunately, this probably won't happen, until it's imposed on us by all the healthcare workers being sick or dead. The modern USSA does not tolerate this sort of deviation from the norm. Zero tolerance rules.
Thanks phaedrus. I guess it's a good thing I don't like cruise ships! However, as in my post above, I will be handling specimens that could be highly infectious. Considering I will be doing so under a BSL 2 laminar flow hood, I will have minimal protection from this virus. Part of processing for flu PCR is vortexing the specimen to release the epithelial cells from the flocked swab. This is a large No No for a BSL 4 agent. Now as I remove the lid, it will aerosolize. I will contaminate the lab as I process it. This is truly a nightmare for me, my coworkers, our families and the community.
If I survive this and those who are responsible for bringing this to our country are finally held for judgement, I want to be directing involved in the sentence. I'm tempted to include my own hospital administrators whose continual stream of vomit ( sorry) how prepared we are for this, is causing me more panic than if they'd just be silent.
Be cautious and safe. I am praying hard for all and hoping this will burn out and we will be lucky. Too bad these shitheads can't learn from their mistakes.
Miffed
Listen Select Zero's,
Does anyone have symptoms? Blisters, fever, nauseous?
Let me know, I'm going to keep a list.
Blisters were in relation to the plague, not ebola.
Listen. That's wonderful.
But blisters are a "REAL" part of eBola.
Check:
http://absolute-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ebola-hand1.jpg
http://absolute-news.com/2014/07/ebola-virus-pictures-images/
Thanks.
IV sites leaves large blood filled bruises.