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The Commodities Trading Cheat-Sheet
With commodity prices tumbling to 2009 lows, comprehending between the differing risks to Soybeans and Silver or Copper and Cocoa is crucial. Deutsche Bank has created just that 'cheat-sheet' - just how vulnerable is Gold to Ebola? or Silver to China growth?
Bloomberg's Commodity index is at 2009 lows...
So here's how to differentiate the commodity complex's risks...
Charts: Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank
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In 2009 oil was $35.
It will get there again, soon
And then Zero when everything grinds to a complete halt if Ebola is truly pandemic for nothing will be moving.
Pay attention to Saudi fear of Iran.
Saudis are out to destroy Iran's economy.
Nothing else matters, just my view
How might Saudi fear of Iran play out?
It is already playing out
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/402343--saudi-arabia-to-pressure-russia-...
Saudis already spreading rumors of oil at $50 targetting Iran
The Saudis, through their pumping are hurting the US shale industry, the Russians, Iran and the rest of Opec... How long before the House of Saud has sovereignty problems?
Saudis do nothing without Pentagon approval.
USA will subsidize shale extration for as long as needed
That's true - the Fed can (indirectly) bailout any 'friendly' losers from $50 oil.
That would lead to inflation...lower dollar...higher oil prices?
They need some freedom. Not the kind brought by US bombing but still, they do need freedom.
It is already playing out
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/402343--saudi-arabia-to-pressure-russia-...
Saudis already spreading rumors of oil at $50 targetting Iran
OK, let's say the Saudis have decided to do this. Can they do it? Obviously, they can sell their own oil for whatever price they desire; but can they sell enough of it to force the price down everywhere? The price is set at the margin in oil as everything else, surely...
LOL, if Oil drops to $50 Iran will be buying...
thats an interesting view..
where does russia figure into this?
not the charts view..
your view...
Already playing out
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/402343--saudi-arabia-to-pressure-russia-...
Ancient Persians vs Arabs hate for domination of middle east.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gU26zOJ3uEM
Also, look up the term 'rafida'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafida
religous war..
so, thats why ISIS is doing so well...
and which nationS are supporting them...
and why..
HES GOOD!
Well if you see some unrest in Bahrain or a revolution is SA you will know)
It might, but it will never stay there - especially if it begins to fuel an economic expansion of sorts.
Doubt gas prices will fall much more after the election.
Also, people without jobs don't have to drive to work.
agree.
Just for a couple of weeks, a couple of months max
Margin call on those holding oil as collateral for derivatives
That price in 2009 was around the time everyone thought the economy was collapsing and the world was basically ending too.
There are 3 ways I can think of that oil would go to $35.-
The $ links to gold/silver at current values.
2/3 of the world population gets wiped out
TPTB announce an abundant and nearly cost-less new source of energy.
It was $30 in 2003
It got there in 2009
World (cheap) oil production hadn't peaked in 2003.
Nobody knows that.
Maybe only 20 people world wide really know
WTI rose to nearly $140/bbl in 2008.
In a depressed economy, it shouldn't still be as high as it is.
Check off #3 this week. This is about as TPTB as it gets... http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/15/us-lockheed-fusion-idUSKCN0I41...
Rio Tinto bitches?
How vulnerable is gold to ebola? Our money's on silver and orange juice.
Oil isn't going to $35. That's as half witted as our half cycle cost analysis is... Gold is at risk of what from ebola? Going up?
This doesn't make sense to me. How can China growth only be a small risk to silver, which is *the* industrial commodity behind copper?
Please insert a new column, "Fed / Banker Manipulation" and put an "H" beside the precious?
So astrong USD is all that i need to worry about................FIGURES !
.
If you need a sheet like this and you are investing any real money, god help you.
Im not sure why they would produce something like this other then as marketing material for the greenest of green retail investor or grannie.
This chart like playing spin. Fun to look at but doesn't reflect the many variables involved:|
Listen Zero's.
Break out your cheat sheet when you get the margin call and tell 'em Doucha Bank "TOLD" you that a strong USSA Do-lar was bad for gold!
HA!
This cheat sheet says go short oil and long soybeans and delta hedge as appropriate. Probably a bad idea.
In 2009, I had a higher paying job !
Oh, wait.... No I didn't.
I still have the same job & same pay scale.
So after the recession(s) without deflation (anomalous), all the bad stuff is still coming at us, we just get to watch the whole thing in slow motion due to everything the Fed, Treasury, and a couple of administrations tried so stupidy to stop.
It would be better to die in a head-on crash than by this "death by 1000 cuts".
It's ALL scripted. The CBers from around the world are having tea at the BIS in Basel every 6 weeks or so. Think they just twiddle their thumbs? These Bankers are owned by the big banks, and together they are "the market", out there to milk the 99%. They know the exact inventories of Gold, copper, silver, you name it, they own the futures books, and have printing presses and their HFT algos, PPTs, swap lines etc etc. They have a better grasp of the ifs, hows, whens various variables like Ebola, Ukrain, PM crisis, war etc. impact "the markets" than all of us here together. IT.IS.ALL.SCRIPTED. But that's just my 2 ounces.
The oil drop off from lack of demand was a problem, however TPTB quickly reacted and stabilized Stawks before any serious sell offs could take place. They're so in control gold didn't even blip.