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Equity Futures Open Higher, Retrace 50% Of Losses On USDJPY Kneejerk
UPDATE: A little early to call yet but Fed's Rosengren quoted in FT "QE will end in October unless something dramatic happens" has knocked USDJPY and S&P lower...
More incoherent chatter from Japan about raising Japan's GPIF allocation to "more than 20%, or around 25%" on the basis of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's 'expert views' have sent USDJPY higher out of the gate and thus S&P 500 futures are tracking - just as they did Friday afternoon - higher. Treasury futures prices are 6 ticks lower (+2.5bps yield) - retraced all the bond-short capitulation gains from Wednesday. S&P futures are 9pts higher - retracing 50% of last week's losses.
This...
- *ABE'S VIEWS TO BE FACTOR IN GPIF ASSET REVIEW TIMING: SHIOZAKI
- *JAPAN GPIF MAY RAISE STOCK ALLOCATION TO MORE THAN 20%: NIKKEI
- *JAPAN GPIF TO BOOST STOCK ALLOCATION TO ABOUT 25%: NIKKEI
Did this...
Which means this...
Dead cat bounce (as the majors track back down to Russell 2000 weakness on Friday)... or new new highs?
Charts: Bloomberg
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Albania grows by the day
I think dead cat bounce is a perfect summation. I see looking at the S&P chart, it'll be practically impossible for Dec. ES to trade over 1940; again; if it looks good at that price, maybe I'll wait another week; at 1960; I'm in short / period. Bear markets don't make new highs, they make rallies, but not new highs, and everything above 1960; and probably 1940; will remain out of reach of this "buy the dip" goof off market.
Why...new highs
Agree....and as someone wrote a week ago, "let the monster telegraph the direction".
S&P going to the 200dma at 1900.
I would encourage you to ignore 200 day moving averages; and all over moving averages entirely. just look at the price charts, daily bar charts, and see where the congestion is; my assumption is that this rally will stall; but I don't even know what the 200 DMA is;and I don't care. Time is important. give 'em an extra day or two to see if they're burned out yet; don't go short on a magic number.
I'll take "New Highs" for $1000, Alex.
Hey at least ZH was right 9 of the past 900 days - that's a solid batting average :(
Don't worry guys, this idiot is new. Only 4 weeks under his belt and he's already a troll.
Hey, but it was quite funny.
And more thoughtful than using the length of time someone has been using a website as a sort of malnourished argument.
he who is right last, is right best.
everything in between is noise.
The Birth Date and the Death Date on a grave marker is that which is correct and is correct at last.
The dash in between is just noise. And the expiration of the Western Financial Markets approaches rapidily with each and every passing day.
How I long for the sound of silence...peace...tranquility.
The day of celebration approaches because the corrupted and fraudulent will meet their destiny.
Barry Ritholtz , is that you ????????
well it seems TPTB have the 200dma of 1905 as their target which seems they will achieve by the US open, Dow futures already up over 100 points from their lows already, European Indexes which were red AH have already been algorhymically dragged higher with the DAX up over 100 from their Friday AH lows, it is obvious that these moves at this hour are the CB's buying the Indexes, and will cause a storm of short stops being taken out tomorrow morning and afternoon...however what has changed, Europe is in recession, Taper ends next week Global slowdown is apparrent, and Ebola is an ever present danger, so we get a blow of spike then what...? I would presume this is for the elections, but I cannot see it holding for too long without another renewed selling in the next few weeks or days...?
Oh and of course Gold is down !
If POMO can't do it what do you suppose can?
Some where deep in the derivatives mine they are searching for that last rich vien.
Whew! That was close. The Fed almost let the "market" fall for a whole week. That would've cancelled at least 50 Ferrari orders! We will get back to our normal manipulated higher "market" this week.
THis is noise. LEt's see what happens when Europe opens 3 - 4AM NYT. That's when you can draw some conclusions. Until then, who cares?
I would assume we'll be waiting all week to collect price and volume information. Waiting is good. I don't want to pull the trigger until the goose wanders up to the end of the shotgun and looks inside to see what's there.
Amen, brother. :-)
"If you buy a security in order to sell it to a greater fool, if no greater fools remained, then you are the greater fool"
Seth Klarman
This is just pure despair.
Taking an unbiased look around I've detected more fools than at any point in my lifetime.
Not nearly enough left over.
The excrement to be dumped is just too huge.
The fools are now amongst elite. Few of them have to go down so others survive, same as with Lehman
"The excrement to be dumped is just too huge."
That's what central banks are for.
Which leads to world reducing real trade with US and avoiding USD further and faster, hence current economic misery which is accelerating
World wants blood from amongst US and EU elite, otherwise world trade goes down. They will get it.
So they are toilet bowls?
Or are they Sewage Treatment Plants?
I believe them to be a Toxic Waste Dump.
In the end they will be, and anybody associated with them in the slightest will be, considered the lowest caste. They will truly be untouchable as they are wiped from the arsehole of the World.
(However there may be kilingons. One must cleanse with a solvent to rid oneself of that type of filth. Then will spring true liquidity...true solvency, where a klingon cannot hide.)
A Central Banker is nothing more than a form of Human Excrement, digested, filled with pestilence, which has no value whatsoever.
Yeah. That is right. I am writing about you JP Morgan Chase...Goldman Sachs, and the rest of you psychopaths.
There are more people on the planet than there have ever been.
The percentages stay the same.
401K's got your back... depair.com is a good site. Makes great christmas gifts.
If I had margin debt (which I don't), I would sell off at Monday's highs.
What? And miss half the fun?
The market can stay irrational longer than any every day investor can maintain their tech/fund positions. Whipsaw action, volatility, and the casino dealers insider info all lead to one big guessing game that only a few truly have some close awareness of.
Fuck you assholes. Crash and burn. Even when I know the bounce is coming, it still pisses me off. Mostly because they do it weasly when the market is closed.
Quotes re: weasels, from the Internet Center for Wildlife Damage Management:
“Occasionally weasels raid poultry houses at night . . . They feed on the warm blood of victims bitten in the head or neck.”
“Weasels appear to prefer hunting certain coverts with noticeable regularity but rarely cruise the same area on two consecutive nights.”
“Weasels, like all mustelids, produce a pungent odor . . . which can be detected at some distance”
So in other words things are so bad they have to buy 25% of the stock market?
We are getting very close to my name coming true.
A leveraged buy out to boot. One where they can't afford any interest rate rises either. What with Japan experiencing trade deficits now, the market values of its companies are open to serious question. If they're exporting less and less then those stockmarket valuations are for shit! If the collateral values being pumped up by paper, whilst the collateral is becoming more and more worthless, then eventually, well Japan is going to need a bailout pretty soon I guess. It looks a lot like Iceland. But I guess because it's Japan, sheeple just think there's some kind of miracle still going on. (Do they have unicorns in Japan?)
So the Fed gives Japan dollars and then they can buy whatever US equities that want with them. Sound about right?
Excellent synopsis bentaxle,
But because it is JAPAN they can drag it on forever it seems. The thing is by going into the stock market the pension fund is booking paper profits to pay out to the pensioners today. Amazingly digits from gains on craappy stocks can be given to people now who then buy actual tangibles with them. It is so stupid that it is mind numbing enough that people don't question it. Eventually some outside shock will bring this all to an end but what and when is anybody's guess. I guess the key is for those making the big paper profits to buy really big tangibles like US real estate and factories, so that when the hitsuji (sheep) wake up they can still get paid from overseas profits. But I don't see how there can ever be enough profits coming into Japan from overseas to pay the pensions of this ever increasing old age home of an archipelago.
Tylers, tha t prudential pop up sucks get it the fug off
I am tired of losing money but the level of crazy is so high I keep shorting at every sign of weakness. I've said it.
I'm going to say this, even though I get a little ticked-off when others do it -
"I never lose money. The height of my stack doesn't change."
You know, I feel a little better now even though PMs are as manipulated as ever.
Japan may very soon lose control over their currency.
Even with the swaps. I wouldn't be suprised if this happened tonight.
I wonder if Soros is sitting short the Yen.
"On the other hand if you don't buy USs equities with the dollars we print and give to you...
The Nikkei is up 3.39% dude. Check the news flow before choosing an apocalypse meme.
Actually Nikkei is down 7% over a month
the gpif can't even keep their story straight
Yay! I am going all in tomorrow!
Yes all in for a dead cat bounce and then continue selling.
My view of the next few months all hinges on the Fed a week from Wed. I think they have to stick to the current plan to end QE and talk about rates hikes "way way off in the future so don't worry, we got you baby." I'm thinking we see a sideways to upward grind in equities, like ES to 1920/30, NQ to 3920/40 area. Gold has been stopped by the 1240 area but it's still possible it goes to 1270-ish before rolling back over. I'm watching gold and the dollar closely to see if the dollar starts curling upward and breaks its downtrend line or we get further consolidation. When gold rolls over you do not want to be on the long side of that trade. The 1.2875 in the Euro was a great spot, but I won't be surprised to see further sideways pullback before the Fed sets fire to the next leg in the risk-off deflation trade. There's always the possiblity that Yellen brings a flock of doves with her into the press conference, but I don't see how that's possible anytime soon. QE saved the world, remember? They can't start seriously talking about another one already. The ES would have to at least get into the 1600s before they panic into that mode. As long as the Fed continues with their current plan, I'm thinking ES 1730 is the next stop after it peaks and rolls over. Gold and silver and the Euro are going way lower. And the dollar is going way higher.
Essentially, I think the forces are set in motion for the deflation trade, and it will take a greater force to reverse it, and I don't believe that can happen until the selling forces it to happen.
"you think"
after years on zh. i'm gladd you 'think' . all i KNOW is whatever they do you are getting screwed. and that's just how it is. no matter what happens they will eventually print more dollars eventually and continue periodically debasing the currency until another institution takes over the reigns from the existing central bank.
that's history.
Nikkei was up 600 points overnight, however Europe is selling off, the DAX has practically lost all of the mad US futures ramp, the Dow also has lost 80 points of that ramp....I would guess that it will reinitialised shortly... Gold and Silver have also dared to turn positive during the night, how long they will be allowed to stay there will be interesting
ECB now in the market panic buying all the worst dogshit European periphery bonds, Paschi gone from down 5% and halted to 1%+ FTSEMIB down, now up over 400 points, US Indexes now ticking back up after falling at the European open, Centrtal Banks all over this like a cheap suit
ES = 1870 is the point to watch. It is resistance that turned into support over the last week. It's been tested twice (Friday). If it doesn't get tested and break on Monday then chances are we're going back up to 1900 (SPX = 1906) - technically speaking, of course. I can't see the future.