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Equity Futures Open Higher, Retrace 50% Of Losses On USDJPY Kneejerk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UPDATE: A little early to call yet but Fed's Rosengren quoted in FT "QE will end in October unless something dramatic happens" has knocked USDJPY and S&P lower...

 

More incoherent chatter from Japan about raising Japan's GPIF allocation to "more than 20%, or around 25%" on the basis of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's 'expert views' have sent USDJPY higher out of the gate and thus S&P 500 futures are tracking - just as they did Friday afternoon - higher. Treasury futures prices are 6 ticks lower (+2.5bps yield) - retraced all the bond-short capitulation gains from Wednesday. S&P futures are 9pts higher - retracing 50% of last week's losses.

 

This...

  • *ABE'S VIEWS TO BE FACTOR IN GPIF ASSET REVIEW TIMING: SHIOZAKI
  • *JAPAN GPIF MAY RAISE STOCK ALLOCATION TO MORE THAN 20%: NIKKEI
  • *JAPAN GPIF TO BOOST STOCK ALLOCATION TO ABOUT 25%: NIKKEI

Did this...

 

Which means this...

 

Dead cat bounce (as the majors track back down to Russell 2000 weakness on Friday)... or new new highs?

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Sun, 10/19/2014 - 18:52 | 5353424 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Albania grows by the day

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:56 | 5353588 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I think dead cat bounce is a perfect summation. I see looking at the S&P chart, it'll be practically impossible for Dec. ES to trade over 1940; again; if it looks good at that price, maybe I'll wait another week; at 1960; I'm in short / period. Bear markets don't make new highs, they make rallies, but not new highs, and everything above 1960; and probably 1940; will remain out of reach of this "buy the dip" goof off market.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 21:14 | 5353759 max2205
max2205's picture

Why...new highs

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 02:38 | 5354323 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Agree....and as someone wrote a week ago, "let the monster telegraph the direction".

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 18:53 | 5353430 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

S&P going to the 200dma at 1900.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:59 | 5353598 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I would encourage you to ignore 200 day moving averages; and all over moving averages entirely. just look at the price charts, daily bar charts, and see where the congestion is; my assumption is that this rally will stall; but I don't even know what the 200 DMA is;and I don't care. Time is important. give 'em an extra day or two to see if they're burned out yet; don't go short on a magic number.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 18:55 | 5353432 christiangustafson
Sun, 10/19/2014 - 18:56 | 5353438 matt1021_98
matt1021_98's picture

Hey at least ZH was right 9 of the past 900 days - that's a solid batting average :(

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:24 | 5353511 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Don't worry guys, this idiot is new. Only 4 weeks under his belt and he's already a troll.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:47 | 5353561 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Hey, but it was quite funny.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 21:47 | 5353887 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

And more thoughtful than using the length of time someone has been using a website as a sort of malnourished argument.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 22:23 | 5354008 Wait What
Wait What's picture

he who is right last, is right best.

everything in between is noise.

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 04:48 | 5354395 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The Birth Date and the Death Date on a grave marker is that which is correct and is correct at last.

 

The dash in between is just noise. And the expiration of the Western Financial Markets approaches rapidily with each and every passing day.

 

How I long for the sound of silence...peace...tranquility.

 

The day of celebration approaches because the corrupted and fraudulent will meet their destiny.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:28 | 5353517 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Barry Ritholtz , is that you ????????

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:02 | 5353445 jubber
jubber's picture

well it seems TPTB have the 200dma of 1905 as their target which seems they will achieve by the US open, Dow futures already up over 100 points from their lows already, European Indexes which were red AH have already been algorhymically dragged higher with the DAX up over 100 from their Friday AH lows, it is obvious that these moves at this hour are the CB's buying the Indexes, and will cause a storm of short stops being taken out tomorrow morning and afternoon...however what has changed, Europe is in recession, Taper ends next week Global slowdown is apparrent, and Ebola is an ever present danger, so we get a blow of spike then what...? I would presume this is for the elections, but I cannot see it holding for too long without another renewed selling in the next few weeks or days...?

Oh and of course Gold is down !

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:00 | 5353446 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

If POMO can't do it what do you suppose can?

Some where deep in the derivatives mine they are searching for that last rich vien.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:01 | 5353447 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Whew! That was close. The Fed almost let the "market" fall for a whole week. That would've cancelled at least 50 Ferrari orders! We will get back to our normal manipulated higher "market" this week.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:03 | 5353456 gmak
gmak's picture

THis is noise. LEt's see what happens when Europe opens 3 -  4AM NYT.  That's when you can draw some conclusions. Until then, who cares?

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 20:03 | 5353609 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I would assume we'll be waiting all week to collect price and volume information. Waiting is good. I don't want to pull the trigger until the goose wanders up to the end of the shotgun and looks inside to see what's there.

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 07:22 | 5354468 gmak
gmak's picture

Amen, brother. :-)

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:03 | 5353460 ekm1
ekm1's picture

"If you buy a security in order to sell it to a greater fool, if no greater fools remained, then you are the greater fool"

Seth Klarman

 

 

This is just pure despair.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:10 | 5353479 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Taking an unbiased look around I've detected more fools than at any point in my lifetime.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:11 | 5353481 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Not nearly enough left over.

The excrement to be dumped is just too huge.

 

The fools are now amongst elite. Few of them have to go down so others survive, same as with Lehman

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:13 | 5353490 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"The excrement to be dumped is just too huge."

That's what central banks are for.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:18 | 5353494 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Which leads to world reducing real trade with US and avoiding USD further and faster, hence current economic misery which is accelerating

 

World wants blood from amongst US and EU elite, otherwise world trade goes down. They will get it.

 

 

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 05:00 | 5354401 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

So they are toilet bowls?

 

Or are they Sewage Treatment Plants?

 

I believe them to be a Toxic Waste Dump.

 

In the end they will be, and anybody associated with them in the slightest will be, considered the lowest caste. They will truly be untouchable as they are wiped from the arsehole of the World.

 

(However there may be kilingons. One must cleanse with a solvent to rid oneself of that type of filth. Then will spring true liquidity...true solvency, where a klingon cannot hide.)

 

A Central Banker is nothing more than a form of Human Excrement, digested, filled with pestilence, which has no value whatsoever.

 

Yeah. That is right. I am writing about you JP Morgan Chase...Goldman Sachs, and the rest of you psychopaths.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:24 | 5353509 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

There are more people on the planet than there have ever been.

The percentages stay the same.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 20:27 | 5353682 GoldenTool
GoldenTool's picture

401K's got your back... depair.com is a good site.  Makes great christmas gifts.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:03 | 5353461 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

If I had margin debt (which I don't), I would sell off at Monday's highs.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:06 | 5353472 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

What?  And miss half the fun?

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:14 | 5353474 CamoZ
CamoZ's picture

The market can stay irrational longer than any every day investor can maintain their tech/fund positions. Whipsaw action, volatility, and the casino dealers insider info all lead to one big guessing game that only a few truly have some close awareness of.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:17 | 5353491 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Fuck you assholes.  Crash and burn.  Even when I know the bounce is coming, it still pisses me off.  Mostly because they do it weasly when the market is closed.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 20:46 | 5353713 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Quotes re: weasels, from the Internet Center for Wildlife Damage Management:

“Occasionally weasels raid poultry houses at night . . . They feed on the warm blood of victims bitten in the head or neck.”

“Weasels appear to prefer hunting certain coverts with noticeable regularity but rarely cruise the same area on two consecutive nights.”

“Weasels, like all mustelids, produce a pungent odor . . . which can be detected at some distance”

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:16 | 5353496 fed_depression
fed_depression's picture

So in other words things are so bad they have to buy 25% of the stock market?

 

We are getting very close to my name coming true.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:38 | 5353541 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

A leveraged buy out to boot. One where they can't afford any interest rate rises either. What with Japan experiencing trade deficits now, the market values of its companies are open to serious question. If they're exporting less and less then those stockmarket valuations are for shit! If the collateral values being pumped up by paper, whilst the collateral is becoming more and more worthless, then eventually, well Japan is going to need a bailout pretty soon I guess. It looks a lot like Iceland. But I guess because it's Japan, sheeple just think there's some kind of miracle still going on. (Do they have unicorns in Japan?)  

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 21:48 | 5353892 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

So the Fed gives Japan dollars and then they can buy whatever US equities that want with them.  Sound about right?

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 00:27 | 5354209 Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

Excellent synopsis bentaxle,

But because it is JAPAN they can drag it on forever it seems. The thing is by going into the stock market the pension fund is booking paper profits to pay out to the pensioners today. Amazingly digits from gains on craappy stocks can be given to people now who then buy actual tangibles with them. It is so stupid that it is mind numbing enough that people don't question it. Eventually some outside shock will bring this all to an end but what and when is anybody's guess. I guess the key is for those making the big paper profits to buy really big tangibles like US real estate and factories, so that when the hitsuji (sheep) wake up they can still get paid from overseas profits. But I don't see how there can ever be enough profits coming into Japan from overseas to pay the pensions of this ever increasing old age home of an archipelago.

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 00:27 | 5354210 Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

Tylers, tha t prudential pop up sucks get it the fug off

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:22 | 5353505 PaiMai
PaiMai's picture

I am tired of losing money but the level of crazy is so high I keep shorting at every sign of weakness. I've said it.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:52 | 5353575 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

I'm going to say this, even though I get a little ticked-off when others do it -

"I never lose money. The height of my stack doesn't change."

You know, I feel a little better now even though PMs are as manipulated as ever.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 20:04 | 5353519 fed_depression
fed_depression's picture

Japan may very soon lose control over their currency.

 

Even with the swaps. I wouldn't be suprised if this happened tonight.

 

I wonder if Soros is sitting short the Yen.

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 21:51 | 5353900 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"On the other hand if you don't buy USs equities with the dollars we print and give to you...

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 22:08 | 5353956 jm
jm's picture

The Nikkei is up 3.39% dude.  Check the news flow before choosing an apocalypse meme.

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 00:17 | 5354196 Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

Actually Nikkei is down 7% over a month

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:41 | 5353548 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the gpif can't even keep their story straight

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 19:54 | 5353577 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Yay!  I am going all in tomorrow!

 

 

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 20:00 | 5353599 Rouge Trader
Rouge Trader's picture

Yes all in for a dead cat bounce and then continue selling. 

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 20:48 | 5353715 dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

My view of the next few months all hinges on the Fed a week from Wed.  I think they have to stick to the current plan to end QE and talk about rates hikes "way way off in the future so don't worry, we got you baby."  I'm thinking we see a sideways to upward grind in equities, like ES to 1920/30, NQ to 3920/40 area.  Gold has been stopped by the 1240 area but it's still possible it goes to 1270-ish before rolling back over.  I'm watching gold and the dollar closely to see if the dollar starts curling upward and breaks its downtrend line or we get further consolidation.  When gold rolls over you do not want to be on the long side of that trade.  The 1.2875 in the Euro was a great spot, but I won't be surprised to see further sideways pullback before the Fed sets fire to the next leg in the risk-off deflation trade.  There's always the possiblity that Yellen brings a flock of doves with her into the press conference, but I don't see how that's possible anytime soon.  QE saved the world, remember?  They can't start seriously talking about another one already.  The ES would have to at least get into the 1600s before they panic into that mode.  As long as the Fed continues with their current plan, I'm thinking ES 1730 is the next stop after it peaks and rolls over.  Gold and silver and the Euro are going way lower.  And the dollar is going way higher.

Essentially, I think the forces are set in motion for the deflation trade, and it will take a greater force to reverse it, and I don't believe that can happen until the selling forces it to happen.  

 

Sun, 10/19/2014 - 22:43 | 5354055 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

"you think"

 

after years on zh. i'm gladd you 'think' . all i KNOW is whatever they do you are getting screwed. and that's just how it is. no matter what happens they will eventually print more dollars eventually and continue periodically debasing the currency until another institution takes over the reigns from the existing central bank. 

that's history. 

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 04:18 | 5354386 jubber
jubber's picture

Nikkei was up 600 points overnight, however Europe is selling off, the DAX has practically lost all of the mad US futures ramp, the Dow also has lost 80 points of that ramp....I would guess that it will reinitialised shortly... Gold and Silver have also dared to turn positive during the night, how long they will be allowed to stay there will be interesting

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 05:51 | 5354424 jubber
jubber's picture

ECB now in the market panic buying all the worst dogshit European periphery bonds, Paschi gone from down 5% and halted to 1%+ FTSEMIB down, now up over 400 points, US Indexes now ticking back up after falling at the European open, Centrtal Banks all over this like a cheap suit

Mon, 10/20/2014 - 07:32 | 5354482 gmak
gmak's picture

ES = 1870 is the point to watch. It is resistance that turned into support over the last week. It's been tested twice (Friday). If it doesn't get tested and break on Monday then chances are we're going back up to 1900 (SPX = 1906) - technically speaking, of course. I can't see the future.

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