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Europe’s Fatal Flaw Laid Bare For All To See. Again.
Submitted by Raul Ilragi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Marjory Collins Carpool for 3rd shift defense workers, midnight, Baltimore April 1943
Da markets, at the end of last week, sort of refound their – shaky – feet, oil up a dollar, EU exchanges up 3% or so, Greece even up over 7%, while interestingly gold didn’t move much at all during the wild week (no safe haven), and most movement was perhaps, through all the see-saw, in bonds. To sum up the week: panic followed by plunge protection teams. And now the ‘leaders’ hope plunge protection will save another day too.
And they may. Germany sinks a bit, but Germany is strong. US housing is at least not falling further, but US consumer spending stalls and drops. The deep dark weakness has not yet hit the big economies. But the nerves are back. Volatility is back with a vengeance. As it should. And that will paint the picture going forward, plunge protection or not. Da markets will come again and again and dare central banks to plunge protect.
Well, either that or more QE, but despite whatever Bullard says the Fed will go ahead with the taper – just listen to Yellen waxing dreamily about the US ‘expansion’ -, and the ECB won’t go full QE because the member states will never agree on anything. And Merkel feels the euroskeptics breathing down her neck as much as the ‘leaders’ of Britain, Italy, France et al.
But as we’ve seen today, there’s sufficient fire power left on both sides of the pond to survive one week of mayhem. But that’s not the main lesson on this Friday. The main lesson is that Europe’s Achilles heel has been laid bare, once more, in full sight, and Europe – re: Draghi, Merkel – thinks that denial is its best defense. Big mistake.
The lofty leaders at the ECB, and Berlin, Paris, Brussels, pretend they can make everything right that’s wrong inside their toy monetary union through asset purchases, sovereign bond purchases, and anything that falls in the ‘whatever it takes’ category. But it’s all just bluff. Because, what it all boils down to, they can’t keep buying Greek bonds with German taxpayer money until the end of time.
And the markets know this. And when they feel like it, for example because other profits (free QE funds) have dried up, the markets will call that bluff at craftfully chosen intervals. It’s the easiest thing in the world: they only need to bet against something they know is hollow gaping hot air to begin with. There’s no there there. Draghi cannot save Greece. Period. And if he can’t save Greece, he can’t save the euro. Period.
In Brussels, like in Washington, Tokyo, Beijing, only one thing really counts: they have to achieve economic growth, because if they do, all problems will vanish into thin air. Which is not only an idiotic notion, it’s been 7 years now and they still haven’t achieved even just that one thing they focus on. It’s exactly like converting to some religion because it promise that the deity of their choice will relieve you of all your troubles, only in modern economics the deity is growth. And its apostles are debt, debt and credit.
If it were you or me, we’d say: let’s try something else, go for some other approach, but not Brussels or Washington, they live in one dimension only, they lack every form of depth perspective, and they will keep pushing for growth until they die trying. And in the case of the ECB, drag Europe down with them, first of all the young people of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
The idea is that all problems will be solved by the return of growth, but how is Greece ever going to grow again when over 50% of its young people haven’t, for 6-7 years running now, ever worked a decent job in their lives, and those who are now 25-28 years old, and never had a shot at real work, despite college degrees, university degrees, face the competition of all graduating classes of those 6-7 years for the same jobs, which still don’t exist?!
It’s an impossibly dumb concept that can exist only in the minds of well-paid bureaucrats in both Athens and Brussels – and Rome and Madrid-. And it can lead to only one outcome: Greece will leave the EU. Because no matter what you think about the Greeks’ abilities to govern themselves, they couldn’t possibly do worse for themselves, for their young people, and thereby their entire economy, than the present system has done. What could possibly have been worse than this?
Greece wanted to join the EU because of the promise of added riches. Instead, they see their entire society dissolve through the EU ideal of lifting all Mediterranean boats to the level of Germany. It’s not like Germany wanted itself to become poorer, that was never their reason to set up the EU.
Berlin wanted Greece to become Germany, and Germany to become an economic Nirvana. They still do. Politicians know that to get (re-)elected they need to promise growth, they need to paint a rosier picture than people see around them today. As if we’re not rich enough yet. It’s not just the politicians who lack depth perspective, it’s their voters too. If you can choose between a promise of more or a threat of less, you know how you will vote.
What this turbulent week exposed was this: Greek 10-year bond yields rose to close to 9%. They’re back down to 7.8% as we speak, plunge protection. 7% is the major ‘sustainable’ level. Greece, just very recently, said they wanted to free themselves of the Troika. The financial markets have now let them know what they think of that.
First Greece, then Cyprus, and Spain, and Italy, and Portugal, and Ireland, will continue to be the targets of the global financial markets. And the EU can’t save them all. There will be more moments like the past week, and the ECB is powerless to stop them all, other than at such gigantic costs that the voters in the richer nations will move their support to other parties.
4-5 years ago, when the PIIGS crisis was at its height, Europe could have enabled the poorer countries to leave the euro straightjacket. Soon, it won’t be a question of enabling anymore, it will turn into a dogfight. The eurozone as a whole will never achieve growth anymore, but Germany and Holland and Finland might; at the cost of the PIIGS.
This will stop at some point, da markets will make sure it does. Achilles was a mighty warrior, with one fatal weakness. That weakness for the eurozone was laid bare this week in the Greek 10-year bond 9% yield. The only ways that exist to bring that back down are artificial: it’s not like Greece itself, with 25% unemployment and more than twice that among young people, can lift itself up by its hairs.
And still, no, it’s not Greece that is Europe’s Achilles heel. It’s the hubris and megalomania that has made Europe, Brussels, blind to its inherent weaknesses. If Greece, and perhaps Spain, Italy, Portugal, would have been allowed to leave the eurozone in 2008/9, they would all have done much better than they are now, and so would the richer core of the EU.
After all, how could the PIIGS possibly have done worse than the present 50%+ youth unemployment? Greece is not Germany, and never will be. Italy is not Helsinki, and never will be.
The peace ideals behind the European unification will, unless something changes very soon, turn into them’s fightin’ words. Because the hunger for power floated like so much excrement to the top of yet another supra-national organization that this world of ours should never have built. EU, World Bank, UN, IMF, NATO, you name them. They take on powers we never designed them for, and before we know it we can’t stop them anymore from accumulating ever more power.
The eurozone’s Achilles heel was there for everyone to see this week, and it’s fatal, lethal: Greek 10-year yields at 9%. That will end up killing the whole edifice. Unless Brussels comes up with a plan to let the PIIGS leave. Brussels won’t. The power hungry don’t give up power voluntarily. So we’ll fight. Suit yourself. But don’t think this will somehow turn out alright all by its smooth and easy self. Europe is on the verge of disintegration. For no reason at all, other than the power dreams of a bunch of borderline psychopaths.
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There will be no growth in Europe until the debt is deflated, and the EU parasitic layer of government is removed.
....Europe needs to Finance & Host Olympic Games.
Only proven method to jumpstart the Economy.
sarc off
...Or Maybe Europe can start "Religious Olympic Games".
Then add up event scores to see which G-d is best G-d.
sarc off
As usual......send the bill to Germany.
Japan has proven they can drag this out much much much longer than any semi-intelligent person would believe was possible. This could drag out for another 20+ years.
And the Euro was never about raising economic prosperity of the member states. The euro was and is a back door attempt at political integration through a currency they KNEW would create the current imbalances and create a crisis they could use as cover to achieve the political union they knew they could never get people to vote for.
This is why they refuse to take the prudent steps of letting the PIIGS leave, it reverses everything they have actually been trying accomplish.
I think the past does not indicate the future....Japan was the first currency to try these practices....as more and more try these same practices, I see the speed at which these are exposed as outright fraud will increase until the system doesn't work at all. Only time will tell which is right....
bingo.. ...exponential equations are a real bitch.
There does seem to be a slow awakening amongst the sheeple of Europe that the whole EU experiment is failing and a drift towards Farage's view that we don't need a European Parliament, Court etc. What we need is an economic free trade zone amongst sovereigb States, each with its own language, culture, legal system and currency. Which is, incidentally, what the few citizens who ever allowed to vote, actually voted for.
If it's broke, fix it...
Japan had help propping themselves up from other countries but those countries are a lot fewer now. Germany has hit the wall and the EU can't do QE like America can, along with the fact that the EU countries really don't like each other. Fast or slow its going to disintegrate.
Stackers
No. It won’t last (drag) for 20 years, because of the austerity (deflation) policies in Europe the ability of the domestic population, especially for the young people to accept high rate of inflation (to try to stimulate the economy) while working in a cut-throat job market with NO hope for a better future, compound by the energy shortages they will face….. I will be surprised if there isn’t a revolution in Europe, which will lead to war, starting in the next 5 years.
Escrava
Whoa whoa whoa. The ironic thing is that your 100 percent right and 100 percent wrong at the same time. Your logic is spot on and if this was a textbook situation or a computer simulation it would be right... However, you completely miss the ideological - political aspect. The youth LOVE THE EUROZONE!!! I live here and I have met thousands of young people like myself and they LOVE the eurozone and dont see it as a problems whatsoever. Seriously, even th 50% percent unemployed people in Spain love the Euro.. They cant grasp or brainwashed not to, to see thats the problem. They dont care about success or diminished standard of living because they are being conditioned to believe that they dont need it or want it..
I am a long time reader of ZH and i enjoy your comments. I know your an peak energy believer but its just artificial scarcity. Growth and employment are the real shortages.
Btw, I am a political atheist but this will go on for 20 years or until USA gets a Republican president. Thats when the cards will come down.... TPTB can get a way with anything right now and they want to get USA on the same page as Europe by any means necessary
History shows time and time again that what people (especially those not holding the reigns of power) "love", think" or "believe" is completely fucking irrelevant.
Correct. Its all about what the little people do. Why they do it does not matter just so long as they do it. Thats where our power is. In the actual doing.
Thats wierd. This was a responce to LoP?
griffey247
The youth LOVE THE EUROZONE.
Love, and fall out of love, matter of time.
You highlighted the ‘real’ problems… Love something that’s mistake; and, that oil is NOT be a finite resource.
Again, I said this before: The propaganda is really good. It works wonders. The dumbing down, distraction, and persistent need of financial gains applied at the population by these massmedia ‘genius’ are so efficient that the masses are incapable of foresee the coming problems, even less able to organize solutions.
“Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces” — Sigmund Freud
Escvara
There already is revolution in Europe. War is not caused revolution. War is when you are told who the enemy is. Revolution is when you figure it out for yourself.
What you underestimate is The Powers At Be ability to simply hit the "Pause Button", freeze everything and then re-write the rule book so they are not losing. The system should have and actually did collapse in 1987, 1999 and 2008 and each time they the froze the system in place, broke all their own rules and called "do over"..... and the farce goes on.
@ Slave Isaura:
Five (5) years?
You are very optimistic!
That bunch of unemployed kids doing, watching the children crying from hunger ... indoors.
Draw your own conclusions.
hehe.
Europe can't pull this off the way Japan did. Japan was exporting into a relatively prosperous world.
The NIKKEI is 1/3 of what it was in 1990.
Well, actually they took European taxpayer money (not only german) to repay the German banks who bought insolvent Greek bonds, sounds a little bit different to me.
I like stuffed grape leaves,for what its worth.
Japan is a huge rock that is in the middle of the worst part of the Pacific Ocean - earthquakes and hurricanes fuck regularly.
Produces no oil, produces no coal, iron does not produce, and ultimately produces evil and nastily children.
In the first economic fart, that pile of stones return to the Shogunate.
Return to eat rice, fish and tea.
hehe.
EU needs to create and host the Financial Olympics.
Of course they must have a drug testing organization and Oh by the way, QEn is an un authorized drug
More like the Financial Hunger Games
Everywhere you look, world leaders display their amorality and greediness. The Big Lie rules the day. For an example of the real behavior of politicians, go to: http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5385/lord-brittan-leaves-vice-chairman...
30 years ago, Lord Brittan destroyed evidence he was given of a pedophile ring that included top British politicians. Thanks to his cover-up, aided by the corrupt Scotland Yard police, Brittan's future was assured. Until Jimmy Savile's sordid pedophile activities became public.
right, unfortunately, there is no common debt in the E.Z., it's "all the PIIGS fault"...
idiots.
Their toy monetary union. speak truth to idiots; it's a waste of time; but it's fun.
" those who are now 25-28 years old, and never had a shot at real work, despite college degrees, university degrees, face the competition of all graduating classes of those 6-7 years for the same jobs, which still don’t exist?!"
EU Brussel Parasite Class drinks fine wines in their Palace in Brussles and issue threats to poor folk in East Ukrainian villages and towns. This Class of EU cunts needs some of what the Rebels in Donbass are handing out to Brussel's Whore Ukrainian Army!
Ms. "Fuck the EU" Nuland was just in Kiev demanding a major military offensive against Donetsk. After she spoke, artillery rained down on the city and kill over 40 people isnide 24 hours. Then that filthy whore slunk back to Washington to dream up more killing and stealing. Israeli bitch that she is!
...Europe needs to add a War w/ China.
Already has current one w/ Russia
Need moar wars.
sarc off
Whose going to fight it? The european forces are a joke and they've relied on the US for decades but our military has been gutted to free up more money for government goodie's.
Germany should just leave the EU now and go with the BRICS while they still have money left. Why wait?
cause of TARGET :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TARGET2
Mutual debt done ...
LMFAO!!! Right... ...I supposed that you actually believe that the 800 trillion in CDS is actually going to pay out someday too.
Good luck with that.
But the underwear gnomes said they would......
I agree that leaving the EU for the BRICS would probably turn out to be a good thing in the long run, but they couldn't because the west has all of their gold? Or more accurately, the west technically owes them money for all of what was their gold. Maybe this was part of the Fed's reasoning all along - ensure that Germany stays in the EU.
was to let Goldman Sachs run them into the ground. Europe is screwed for decades.
Doing God's work - God must be an American.
LIBYA: Goldman Took Us For 'A Complete Ride'http://www.businessinsider.com/libyan-investment-authority-goldman-sachs...
not sure of God's race but starting to think he is a zionist
Zionism is not Judaism -opposing Zionism is not opposing Judaism /truthy off
Don't forget Ignorance is Strength in your litany of self-justifying nonsense.
What you say is true, but there are plenty here in the ZH commentariat who use the terms interchangably, often including other anti-semitic propaganda such as the blood libel, fake talmud quotes, etc.
There are many Jews who do not believe that it is the role of man to create the (prophesized) Jewish state. Of course, there are many Jews (and Christians) who do.
No, to them "Doing God's work" means deciding who prospers, lives or dies, and they too get to "create something out of nothing"...
"Currency, meet Compound Interest. Now go forth and multiply."
"And, behold, he saw that is was good" (for GS Principals).
Same con, different millennium.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the Rothschild family gatherings. To start WWIII or not to start WWIII. Aye, that is the question.
You couldn't congregate that much toxic waste in one place without permanently putrifying the soil. Besides, the horde of flies would be unbearable.
That discussion probably took place before Nixon did his move in 1971, based on consultations with Kissinger
Fly? Wall?
I could have sworn vampires turn into bats and hang from the ceiling. You gotta fit in to keep an eye on the gatherings.
The whole point of the EU project is to make sure the endless wars in Europe stopped.. It has worked. The wars take place outside the EU now.
even Krug is calling for a jubilee (in a non-calling for jubilee way).
straitjacket
The acronym PIIGS pisses me off...What a blatant, obvious attempt to denigrate the poorer members! And very juvenile too...like a bunch of fucking 10-year olds...
Why not GIIPS? Well, what images come to mind with each? Yeah, right.
The only PIGS here are the bankers and their buddies in government.
"The acronym PIIGS pisses me off..."
How about 'PIFIGS', as France will soon be added?
Good, that'll fuck up their cute little acronym...assholes!
It isn't just the euro...
the concept of a select few keeping the "profits" while socializing all losses is occuring all over the planet...
stupid fucks.
Feudalism 2.0. New & Improved.
Sheeple, meet your new Masters: Same as your old Masters.
p.s. Next time use the Guillotines more thoroughly and globally, since rats and vampires will flee to another Safe Haven, if possible.
But in Europe, it's mostly the Euro; and the self-selected select few come along in the bargain. When I first heard about the Euro I started laughing; I couldn't believe anyone would pick a name for a currency that sounded like a urinary disease; but it turned out to be even worse than that.
Finland grow?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/finland-loses-top-rating-as-s-p...
And the markets know this...
markets? LAUGH MY ASS OFF!!
They can fix it and keep on fixing it. Maybe forever...
Not borderline
Full blown
The problems can be solved with growth. That is the truly frustrating thing about it all- it is just that the countries on the periphery will never undertake the fundamental reforms in both labor and business regulation and taxes to allow it. When you point out that many unemployed people ages 18-30, that is an enormous untapped source of wealth creation, and they would be perfectly willing and capable of creating it if the governments didn't do almost everything in their power to prevent exactly that.
I couldnt agree more. The article above is very very good but your comment might be better. Government is in the way right now its as simple as that... The analogy about one dimesional thinking is perfect.
Hhhmm... let's have a look at the reality that is the biosphere called earth. Growth you say? growth forever in the context of a closed system with finite resources and elements that must cycle between several oxidation states in order for life (at least as we know it) to be maintained? Good luck with that.
To be fair, one systemic element can grow exponentially as long as other offsetting elements decrease exponentially.
So, for example, per capita wealth can increase exponentially while population decreases exponentially.
I think that is what a number of the elites are hoping to achieve.
They have aleady achieved this. "Wealth" very much flows back to those who control a lot of it already. As more an more people see that they are fucked or will be fucked shortly, they will simply stop participating.
One of two things tends to occur when all those paper promises try and take delivery of real resources (which they eventually will - it's called a margin call)
1) People no longer honor that paper or
2) Those resources are simply not available.
Neither outcome is good for the average sheep.
same as it ever was.
Yancey must be one of those ignorant youth. He proposes to put all those young people back to work. Okay fine, doing what exactly? In order to actually do any work you must burn calories. Are the calories available? Who is going to make the initial investment to procure those calories? Bussinesses do not hire just to fucking hire (except for government, which he claims to dislike). I suggest that this fucking moron have a look at the average number of people around the planet who have to to do real work simply to eat for the day. Then I can see why the young might like the E.Z.
Actually no, the math is no good on this long-term & these centuries-ruling elites' families did the long-term planning.
We flat out can't have elites with power unless it's slave-power. No robots can replace human workers for ability to heal, adapt & make their own replacements (children).
What will work is if the weak are removed by the strong (slaves) and if life-spans are decreased (end years are not good slaving years, too weak) and population grows for the younger years (they don't have to live long, just work to live & die before "retirement").
A mass de-population indiscriminant of these factors would do the most harm, not any benefit, to the elites. We are their wealth once you realize we are their property.
You did realize that, didn't you? George Carlin said it several times & that video snippet's been repeated everywhere, here too, many times.
As the head of the euro serpent activates its plans in Ukraine,the tail sheds sits skin in Greece.
A little info spoken of in the British house of lords this week by lord Alardice,a welsh Lib Dem.30% of Russian armament factories are in south Ukraine.
"they can’t keep buying Greek bonds with German taxpayer money until the end of time".
Well, actually they took European taxpayer money (not only german) to repay the German banks who bought insolvent Greek bonds, sounds a little bit different to me.
"Yes We Can!"
Yep. Guess we should have let those banks FAIL after all.
"Because the hunger for power floated like so much excrement to the top of yet another supra-national organization that this world of ours should never have built. EU, World Bank, UN, IMF, NATO, you name them. They take on powers we never designed them for, and before we know it we can’t stop them anymore from accumulating ever more power."
Unless the military were to mutiny, it's already too late. They've got most by the short hairs financially. That is unless you're a member.
You mean a member of the tribe or a useful goy.
Yes, you can look at it like that. I've come to recognize that the "tribe"(by that I mean zio's) aren't the only team players in this evil being foist upon us. I see them as the most visible.
Look over there...SQUIRREL
Ever, wonder where all this transgender, LBGT garbage has originated from?
Do a little research on Pierre Teilhard de Chardin.
There are plenty of Jews living in poverty, too. And there are plenty of non-jews in the ruling elites as well. Some examples being Jamie Dimon and Vikram Pandit.
Agreed, now let's talk about the majority of central bankers and billionaires.
"Europe is on the verge of disintegration"
This whole worldwide Centrally Planned economic shootin' match is on the verge of disintegration. Hell, the disparities between Greece and Germany can be extrapolated to the divides right here in the US, between the benefactors of Fed/.gov largess and those left holding the bag.
Long pitchforks.
Always with the pitchforks.
Sheesh. This is a 2 part equation. Like no one's heard of torches anymore.
Funny I stopped working and reduced my spending to bare minimum levels for the very purpose of stopping growth as a punishment against their evil ways. I'm sure I'm not the only one.
The human spirit is a hard thing to control. Fuck'em and their need for growth until the whole ponzi shitshow is gone.
I proposed a Southern Euro back in 2010. It could have been under the ECB's rules, a separate board from the participating countries, with debt and deficit restrictions included (issue all debt for each country, from the ECB itself) ----a path from debt to stability and things would already be more hopeful and competitive. The current path bascially is removing the educated youth from Portugal, Spain, Greece, Cyprus and to some extent Italy. Wait til you try to figure out the demographics of paying the politicians promises when the best and brightest have left the country. The demographics were poor to start with and now they are a disaster. The current path will break Germany.
ECB President Mario Draghi's last move towards more QE is no more than stupidity on steroids, even words like misdirected and boneheaded do it a disservice. This is more proof that the Euro-zone is in big trouble, both the union and the flawed currency is again begging to crumble.
One is forced to wonder if Japan and the Yen will crash first considering how each day Japan slides closer to the economic abyss or whether the Euro will lead the way into the wastebasket. Draghi has helped the countries of Europe kick the can down the road but this only delays the failure on the Euro. More on how the Euro-zone has failed to make any real reforms in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/euro-zone-and-draghi-both-mired-i...
It is impossible to make reforms when you can't put the real criminals in prison. The crimminals hold the reigns of power now, certainly you didn't think that they would indict themselves?
Any real reforms would start with prison terms for a lot of dickheads.
this is a reply to LoP on my computor its the last post? wtf
Don't be redickerous!
When's the last time we well & truly had a criminal organization in 100% control of the entire planet? We're almost there! Now that's reform you can believe in!
You spec kids want to be careful with the current tape.
Please take a look back at the 2007 top. We had a hard break of the 200 DMA, an 11% pullback, and then ... new highs.
SPX chart with a comparison here for the wary. Stay frosty!
Technical signals are meaningless in a manipulated market.
No they're not - they're not even being looked at!
NANEX is looking at them. Cancelled quotes, front-run quotes, exchanges halting trading asymmetrically, crossing the order books - that's the technical indicators for a rigged market.
You can't say it doesn't work if you've never even tried. Eric Hunsader is doing it.
Technical indicators are proof of a manipulated market & indicate how it is manipulated.
If the ECB wants to buy all the piigs bonds then buy the bonds or they can trim thier own budgets so as they are fiscal (serious pay & spending cuts). I see the PPT actions purely supportive for LBNA rehyprothicated derivatives resting on the IMF balance sheets. Is the IMF solvent? The answer is, hell no; because more and more major banking institutions can't meet the Basel 2 accord requirements of liquidable assets on hand and maybe this could be the undertow why copper is disappearing from global stockpiles vs production stockpiles. Maybe, maybe there is a slight-of-hand connection between the two?
We look into land and land business today more development business. We real make strides about index exposition administrations and paper one of the understudies need for study reason.
Me I expect them to just move the decimal point and pretend it helps. The catch is its all about the theft of labor. Well good luck swipping things that were not built. Just like the old soviet system why work hard or at all. Just go in and sit around doing as little as you can get away with. While sneaking as much as you can out the back door.
The catch 22 is what is in it for me if the money wont buy what I need? We allready know there aint nothing in it for our kids now.
So I ask. Unfuck your kids. Slow down production to the minimum needed to support your family. No gravy. Thats what the beast lives on pure gravy.
Remember when they used to say the SnP was in lockstep with employment numbers?
If you taper QE and Europe starts circling the drain, what in the fuck makes you think we're not next if it's not reinstated or at least reuntapered. Money men need their "fiat fix" and we're all gonna pay for it.
Let's be honest and rational.
Europe does not produce enough oil for your needs.
Europe does not produce enough food for its population.
Europe is a large part of their water sources contaminated.
Europe has a lot of unemployed and an indecent rate of immigration from North Africa.
All hanging in one way or another on the welfare state.
Europe to partially survive should go back to using coal and put an insane amount of people in the fields to plow land and plant.
Europe is well to produce nuts and bolts, but do not eat nuts and bolts.
The rest of the world produces bolts and no longer need the expensive stuff produced in Europe.
Expensive things produced in Europe are only expensive because they want the rest of the world pay for the social well being.
For my part I want the Europeans to fuck your ass and shove that paper they call the Euro.
Never seen so many pedantic people - of their nose - a tiny piece of land.
Here in Brazil the fishermen have a sentence explaining this type of people:
Are people who eat sardines and shrimp belch.
hehe.
Europe Population (including Russia-143m and Turkey-77m): 740 million people and produces about 18 million barrels of oil a day.
China: 1.3 billion people and produces about 4 million barrels of oil a day
USA: 310 million people and produces about 10 million barrels a day (But, consumption peaked at 21.3 million barrels a day, in 2007).
Africa: 1.1 billion people and produces about 8.5 million barrels of oil a day (but declining fast).
South America: 400 million people and produces about 7.5 million barrels of oil a day.
Then, as of 2012, there are 21 million barrels of oil gap.
The end of growth is already upon us. Next will be the end of financialization.
Karaio,
Now, you go out there and break this news……… to the 7 billion people, because I am not doing it.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/bp-statistical-review-world-energy-2014/
http://peakoilbarrel.com/bakken-update-january-production-numbers/comment-page-1/#comment-12929
Useful post thanks, i agree the end of growth is amongst us, by choice rather than capability.
The world continues to create debt and instead of allocating this into real business, decide to allocate it into financial markets which in turn produce fuck all real growth, even the profits geared from the financial products are used to buy back shares.
Notwithstanding the above, the technology creep amongst us is impacting growth, drones and robots and machines dont exactly spend there earnings, human labour is becoming irrelevant in the developed countries, where it is relevant it is being outsourced to Asia. I read the other day that even China are outsourcing there labour to Africa, full circle jerk indeed.
The transfer of wealth continues in its masses, the future (albeit a bleak one) is the East, the West will not grow out of its debt.
Exponential Debt, Exponential Population, Exponential Financial Market, Finite Real trade, Finite Real Jobs, Finite Resources - The Economy is shaking like a shitting dog...
So, because of your answer, I would recommend you to check this out:
The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
“If I had been downright honest with myself,”…. “I would have seen
Decayed civilizations always make war on independent intellectual inquiry,… They do not want the masses to look into the pit.
“One of the most pathetic aspects of human history is that every civilization expresses itself most pretentiously, compounds its partial and universal values most convincingly, and claims immortality for its finite existence at the very moment when the decay which leads to death has already begun,” Reinhold Niebuhr wrote.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/chris_hedges_jan_27_column_transcript_collapse_of_complex_societies_2014012
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...they can’t keep buying Greek bonds with German taxpayer money until the end of time
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Maybe not until the _end of time_, but, bearing in mind:
1. Merkel won her election, is really popular, and really really believes in the EUR-zone;
2. The Greek numbers are not so large compared to German GNP;
Then Greek bonds are going to be bought by Germany (through state agencies ordered by Merkel if necessary, if the Bundesbank won't comply) for a very long time to come.
This doesn't mean the EUR-zone is stable, just that IMHO it won't be brought down by Greece (or Portugal).
In needs the failure of a bigger state, beyond the resources of German loans (or even free gifts, which is what I think Greece will get before long).
Possibly Spain, certainly France.
My bet is on France as the spark.
Then Germany gets her DEM back (German voters never got a vote on losing it), Germany gets a resultant slowdown, France gets fast-depreciating New Francs (for those old enough, these will be actually New New Francs), southern Europe goes to Hell in a handcart - military governments in Spain, Greece and Portugal?
Ho Hum
Watson
Little bit of info.
ireland is not seen as a republic as seen by the EU authorties.
This recent language of the fiscal treaty makes this clear.
(De Gaulle resisted Irish entry into the EU because we were not a sov entity)
TREATY ON STABILITY, COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE IN THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION BETWEEN THE KINGDOM OF BELGIUM, THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA, THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, THE REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA, IRELAND, THE HELLENIC REPUBLIC, THE KINGDOM OF SPAIN, THE FRENCH REPUBLIC, THE ITALIAN REPUBLIC, THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS, THE REPUBLIC OF LATVIA, THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA, THE GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG, HUNGARY, MALTA, THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS, THE REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA, THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND, THE PORTUGUESE REPUBLIC, ROMANIA, THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA, THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC, THE REPUBLIC OF FINLAND AND THE KINGDOM OF SWEDEN T/SCG/en 1
THE KINGDOM OF BELGIUM, THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA, THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, THE REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA, IRELAND, THE HELLENIC REPUBLIC, THE KINGDOM OF SPAIN, THE FRENCH REPUBLIC, THE ITALIAN REPUBLIC, THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS, THE REPUBLIC OF LATVIA, THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA, THE GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG, HUNGARY, MALTA, THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS, THE REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA, THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND, THE PORTUGUESE REPUBLIC, ROMANIA, THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA, THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC, THE REPUBLIC OF FINLAND AND THE KINGDOM OF SWEDEN.
http://www.european-council.europa.eu/media/639235/st00tscg26_en12.pdf
>Because, what it all boils down to, they can’t keep buying Greek bonds with German
>taxpayer money until the end of time.
Well as long as it's not just German but EU/ECB scrip, they might just stumble along doing it for ten years or so while they consider the matter fully. As long as some Euro banksters can skim the proceedings, just try to stop it.
Continual growth on the basis of this current fossil fuel paradigm is now a thing of the past.
In a world where we have hit peak resources, along with the Nemesis of global warming/pollution, the only two routes out of this condundrum in the current momentum is EITHER Recession or Energy price hikes--which lead to the same stop-go merry-go-round, all pumped on funny money.
The model cannot sustain with a given quantity of energy (mostly fossil to 80%) to feed, transport, heat the world AND to electrify, and mechanise to the nth degree the urban civilization now galloping towards HUGE per capita energy consumption on all continents.
This cannot continue. And today's financialized paper "entitled" asset risk "virtual" economy is sitting on the back of the real economy in the belief that energy is a price elastic commodity; aka supply and demand are based on an "unlimlted" supply of fossil.
This paradigm has now been proven MATHEMATICALLY false. So price elasticity and market mechanisms are irrelevant to define "paper" pricing of the key element of this civilization which is now constant, in annual flux, and has been flat since 1964 when new oil reservoir discovery plateaued, and whose flux can only diminish whatever the market may say. At the price of the carbon foot print growing as we use more coal and heavy oil. Its a lose-lose situation for future generations.
Until we find a renewable energy, which can be stored and put on the grid at a steady flux, there is NO alternative to fossil (except in some countries which rely on nuclear for electricity).
So this paradigm is blocked and 7 billion people with it.
And the current Pax Americana, in place since petrodollar monopoly, allows the Oligarchy to run it all on a financialized and outsourced basis. It is now hitting the asymptote of real, diminishing, physical energy flux.
The FED or any other bank cannot fix that, to save their elite masters and ever increasing number of serfs.
".... increasing number of serfs."
This is NOT going to end well.
Well done falak.
That is the bottom line - you can't fix broken down, uncompetitive statist economies by borrowing and spending, even when it is facilitated by printing money to monetize the debt. No matter how bad the Keynesians want that to be the case, it simply is not possible. It's like the kid who wants to fly - he can "facilitate" his dream by jumping off the roof, but he's still going to just end up a pile of broken bones on the ground...
but wait, fat is stored energy!
Clearly a pig grown too fat to walk needs more energy.
Therefore, add fat.
Right?
the tin-foil hats seem to be the smartest people in the room again.
remember the denials theres no such globalist plan for the americas, (s. america, n. america, and canada, or the euorpa, (all of europe combined).
the population of usa, germany, and the united kingdom were doomed years ago, they were the bis's manufacturing, and financial dupes.
people in america, germany, and the united kingdom through elected, and unelected representatives have put these populations into generational debt to the bis, and there is no sign of them stopping.
This article states "The eurozone’s Achilles heel was there for everyone to see this week, and it’s fatal, lethal: Greek 10-year yields at 9%." May I suggest another so called "Achilles heel" and that would be Italy.
While Italy is loved and often the travel destination by many Americans and for good reason, it is downright charming, but it is also the third largest economy of the Euro-zone after Germany and France and yet it holds the largest public debt totaling over 2 trillion euro. Almost everyone agrees that Italy’s public debt is unsustainable and needs an orderly restructuring to avert a default, but as usual in the Euro-zone no action is happening. More on why Italy may bring down the euro in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/italy-achilles-heel-of-europe.html
THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 59 onwards)
The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy.
But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
Has Greece been bailed out four or five times? Lost track. Greeks do not have the old protestant work ethic and I hear they are fatter than Americans OMG. They could stay attached to Euroville and and get Eurofare for a while yet. The EU honchos really want this EU thing to work even if it breaks Germany.
American Greeks are a different story. Enterprising and very hard workers.