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Doctors "Hit Breaking-Point" As Ebola Death Toll Tops 4500; Nigeria 'Clear' But Harvard Issues Travel Ban
The WHO is coming under increasing scrutiny over its response to the the deadly epidemic. As The BBC reports, after stating that the death toll has hit 4,555 worldwide, a leaked internal document shows "nearly everyone involved in the outbreak response failed to see some fairly plain writing on the wall." There are a few tidbits of good news this weekend: the Spanish patient's test returned negative, 48 "at-risk" people in Dallas have been cleared, and Nigeria has been declared "ebola-free". Sadly, the bad news keeps coming: the virus has spread to new regions of Guinea (affecting mining operations), Moodys warns the economic legacy will linger, IMF slashes growth forecasts for Africa, and most critically, MSF doctors are at their breaking point: "The epidemic is still getting worse... I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel." Lastly, Harvard has imposed a travel ban from Ebola-affected nations.
- *EBOLA CASES TOTAL 9,216, WHO SAYS
- *EBOLA DEATHS TOTAL 4,555 AS OF OCT. 14, WHO SAYS
As The BBC reports, the WHO is under fire over response to epidemic,
Although a flu pandemic was expected, Ebola was most definitely not expected in Liberia, Guinea or Sierra Leone. The virus had never been seen in West Africa before.
So when the first cases were reported in March there was no big WHO machine ready to roll. As it turns out, West Africa's Ebola outbreak actually began in Guinea last December and seems to have gone almost unnoticed for three months.
"Nobody knew that this disease called Ebola would be possible in such parts of Africa," said Dr Isabelle Nuttall, the WHO's Director of Global Capacities, Alert and Response.
"The speed of reaction was initially determined by the fact that the disease was not known to occur in this part of Africa."
...
on 1 April, the WHO's senior communications officer, Gregory Hartl, suggested that MSF was scaremongering.
"We need to be very careful about how we characterise something which is up until now an outbreak with sporadic cases," he said.
"What we are dealing with is an outbreak of limited geographic area and only a few chains of transmission."
...
An embarrassing internal WHO document, leaked to the Associated Press last week, indicates senior WHO officials know mistakes have been made, suggesting "nearly everyone involved in the outbreak response failed to see some fairly plain writing on the wall".
* * *
As Bloomberg reports, front-line doctors are at their breaking points,
“I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel,” said Lucey, a physician and professor from Georgetown University who is halfway through a five-week tour in Liberia with Medecins Sans Frontieres, the medical charity known in English as Doctors Without Borders. “The epidemic is still getting worse,” he said by phone between shifts.
...
MSF has been the first -- and often only -- line of defense against Ebola in West Africa. The group raised the alarm on March 31, months ahead of the World Health Organization. Now, after treating almost a third of the roughly 9,000 confirmed Ebola cases in Africa -- and faced with a WHO warning of perhaps 10,000 new infections a week by December -- MSF is reaching its limits.
“They are at the breaking point,” said Vinh-Kim Nguyen, a professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Montreal who has volunteered for a West African tour with MSF.
* * *
The Good News...
- WHO declares Nigeria Ebola-free
- Spain Ebola patient may be free of virus after negative test
- Dallas sees 48 people cleared of Ebola risk after monitoring
- White House said to seek additional funds to fight Ebola spread
President Barack Obama is preparing to ask Congress for additional funds to combat Ebola, a move that could shift some political pressure from the White House to lawmakers in the last two weeks before midterm elections.
The Bad News...
- Heineken sends Sierra Leone staff home as Ebola shuts bars
- IMF cuts Africa growth forecast amid Ebola virus, insecurity
- U.S. Ebola protocol revision includes full-body suits: AP
- Ebola economic legacy to linger after crisis, Moody’s reports
- Ebola spreads to new regions in Guinea near AngloGold mine
The Ebola virus spread to two new regions in Guinea, including an area where an AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. mine is located.
The place that reported infections in the Siguiri area is 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the Johannesburg-based company’s facility, the Ministry of Health and AngloGold said in statements yesterday. Employees haven’t been infected and operations continue, the mining company said.
...
“We continue to strengthen surveillance and we conduct daily monitoring checks on all employees,” AngloGold spokesman Chris Nthite said in an e-mailed response to questions. “Some of our employees live in Siguiri.”
* * *
And finally, as Breitbart reports, Harvard has imposed a travel ban...
Harvard University has imposed an effective travel ban on Ebola-striken countries, requiring students, faculty, and staff to obtain official permission from the university administration before traveling to affected parts of West Africa, and possibly staying off campus for 21 days after returning to the U.S. from those countries.
The severe restrictions at Harvard, reported early Monday by the Harvard Crimson, "expand on those detailed in August that asked for Harvard students, faculty, and staff to avoid nonessential travel to the three countries." The new restrictions also exceed any guidelines imposed by the U.S. government.
* * *
So the PhDs' think we need a travel ban? Wonder what Ron Klain thinks?
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Here we go Bitchezz.. !!
Cornell has issued restrictions too:
The university is now putting in place travel restrictions, given the evolving situation and our responsibility to protect the health of the community. These restrictions align with U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) travel warnings against any nonessential travel to Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. A travel alert recommending enhanced precautions has been issued for travelers to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Too fkn funny ...Havaad imposes ban......heheheheh.......not good enuff for the rest of us peeps........but gotta protect our legacy babies
Why is Nigeria smarter than the US?
We used to be good at this stuff. What the hell happened to us? (Rhetorical question)
Nigeria has better leadership, obviously.
What we needed was a Nigerian and what we got was a Kenyan?
SEE...
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT!
THE 30 MAN 'STRIKE TEAM' HAS GOT THIS COVERED...
ARMED WITH PLENTY OF CLIPBOARDS...
I FEEL BETTER ALL READY...
the only thing i see positive is i feel you guys here will be fine...'
we're just too ahead of the curve...thank god for that!
The article states, "There are a few tidbits of good news this weekend: the Spanish patient's test returned negative, 48 "at-risk" people in Dallas have been cleared, and Nigeria has been declared "ebola-free".
The problem that I have with this is that the initial press release reported that 100 prople were under an Ebola watch.
Just what happened to the other 52 people?
Yes they report the truth. Perhaps 48 people are no longer under a watch.
BUT THEY DO NOT REPORT THE ENTIRE TRUTH.
So as far as Nigeria is concerned...
I have not a clue as to what to believe.
""Harvard has imposed a travel ban from Ebola-affected nations.""
But But But... Ebama Says Travel Ban Will Make Thinks WORSE !@!! ..........???...
>...Unf*cking believable...More news out...
U.S. is Responsible for the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa: Liberian Scientist
http://www.globalresearch.ca/a-liberian-scientist-claims-the-u-s-is-resp...
"The Ebolas" knew to target mining in Guinea? How Economic Hitman of it. So now we know Nigeria is playing ball, er, is Ebolas free. In one week we bring back our girls AND clear Ebolas from Nigeria? Kony2012 wants in on that Op. What were the concessions I wonder? Most likely oil related.
Looks like this pandemic is right on track to be solved before Nov 5th!
How is it remotely acceptable that all travel to West African countries just when they need us the most! This is pure racism. America and the west have pillaged Africa for everything and now, just when they are crying out for help, the west just abandons them?!!!
MDB, while your attempt at satire is always appreciated, it lacks punch when it is simply a verbatim recitation of Obama administration policy.
We lose Fonz and get back MDB? What a world we live in!
MDB, nevertheless our commander and chef is setting the correct example. As both Kenyan and American, he is In a perfect position to bridge the gap, arbitrate if you will, this tough crisis that Americans seem so ignorant and insensitive about, so much so that he plans to fly even suspected Ebola patients into the country for monitoring and treatment regardless of costs and dangers to our public. Under obamacare, mitigation is possible. Victims of this terrible disease shouldn't be discriminated against and deprived of quality health care. America must lead in this regard. It's this kind of self-sacrifice that makes us such a great nation. How can we not act?
You're right MDB. I say we send in our "brightest" Rhodes Scholars. They are well trained and authorized by the elite Cecil Rhodes plan. #EndEbolaRacism.
+1 for Rhodes callback. I wonder if any Obama advisors are descendant?
US Bio-warfare Laboratories In West Africa Are The Origins Of The Ebola Epidemic
Interview with Francis A. Boyle ( WIKIPEDIA ENTRY )
Francis A. Boyle is a leading American professor, practitioner and advocate of international law. He was responsible for drafting the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, the American implementing legislation for the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention. He served on the Board of Directors of Amnesty International (1988-1992), and represented Bosnia - Herzegovina at the World Court. Professor Boyle teaches international law at the University of Illinois, Champaign. He holds a Doctor of Law Magna Cum Laude as well as a Ph.D. in Political Science, both from Harvard University.
Excerpts:
Is Ebola just a result of health crisis in Africa - because of the large gaps in personnel, equipment and medicines - as some experts suggest?
That isn’t true at all. This is just propaganda being put out by everyone. It seems to me, that what we are dealing with here is a biological warfare work that was conducted at the bio-warfare laboratories set up by the USA on the west coast of Africa. And if you look at a map produced by the Center of Disease Control you can see where these laboratories are located. And they are across the heart of Ebola epidemic, at the west coast of Africa. So, I think these laboratories, one or more of them, are the origins of the Ebola epidemic....
Are we being told the truth about Ebola? Is that big outbreak began all of a sudden? How does it spread so quickly?
The whole outbreak that we see in the west coast of Africa, this is Zaire/Ebola. The most dangerous of five subtypes of Ebola. Zaire/Ebola originated 3500 km from the west coast of Africa. There is absolutely no way that it could have been transmitted 3500 km. And if you read the recently published Harvard study on the DNA analysis of the west Africas’ Zaire/Ebola there is no explanation about how the virus moved there…
USA sent troops to «fight» Ebola. What do you think about that move?
The US military just invaded Liberia. They send in the 101st Airborne Division to Liberia. That’s an elite division of combat and they have no training to provide medical treatment to anyone. They are there to establish a military base in Liberia. And the British are doing the same in Sierra Leone. The French are already in Mali and Senegal. So, they’re not sending military people there to treat these people. No, I’m sorry.
Weren’t they afraid Ebola’s going to go out of control even in the USA or EU in a massive way?
It’s already gone in the USA and the European Union…The WHO and the CDC are up to their eyeballs in this…
…it is far more dangerous than the CDC and the WHO are telling anyone, because it’s clearly transmitted for a certain distance - we don’t know how far - by air. Breathing and coughing and sneezing…We have to find out: was this Zaire/Ebola GMOed by either Porton Down or CDC or these US bio-warfare labs?…
Well with just SEVEN proteins encoded by the entire genome, there's not that much PHLS Porton or anywhere else might be able to do, especially since Nature has been "doing her thing" with these filamentous viruses for aeons (maybe tens of millions of years - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20569424 ).
Being mindful that the Birmingham University "Smallpox Incident" was just an accident (arising primarily from the fact that "Best Practices" in those days were in retrospect not good enough - and they were following the same "Best Practices" as everyone else, Globally), who's to say what we are seeing is just another accident - which may have become worse simply owing to the initial event being "brushed under the table" to protect self-interest, or even the very distinct possibility of the initial event having not been detected.
As to the "Containment" in Nigeria - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2387359/Nigeria-country-corrupt-better-burn-aid-money.html
Healthcare inequality there is none too great either - self interest seems to rule - http://elombah.com/index.php/special-reports/12768-health-inequality-in-nigeria-a-complete-absence-of-conscience-and-common-sense
So, I for one would not be "betting the Farm" on the accuracy of reportage, especially since the ruling Nigerian 1% really do NOT want to upset those Overseas suppliers / technical staff, upon whom their Oil and Gas Industry is rather dependent just now, and for those who "upset" the ruling elite, the consequences are usually fatal - http://www.nigerianobservernews.com/08112013/features/features2.html#.VEWM3fO4Z9A
They haven't been able to track down all the at-risk people.
You guys respond too quick at times. In the initial reports, according to ABC News...
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-ebola-patients-contacts-now-reach-100/story?id=25912405
The order came as authorities track all the people who Duncan is believed to have come in contact with since his arrival in the U.S. The circle of people who have come into contact with him has grown rapidly from 18 Wednesday night to 100 today, according to Texas health officials.
Okay...What happened to the other 52 people under watch?!?
THIS IS BULLSHIT. WHERE IS THAT NURSE'S BOYFRIEND WHO WAS SHOWING SYMPTOMS?
YOU CANNOT BELIEVE ANYTHING THAT THESE BASTARDS REPORT.
...Its about USSA controlling West Africa resources...
What resources? A couple of gold mines and a tiny bit of oil ... which you can't pump because pipelines get vandalized all over the place.
Why do you think military advisors accompany the pipelines?
The US Department of Defense (DoD) is funding Ebola trials on humans, trials which started just weeks before the Ebola outbreak in Guinea and Sierra Leone. This research work involved injecting healthy humans with the deadly Ebola virus.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/a-liberian-scientist-claims-the-u-s-is-resp...
Nina Pham's boyfriend is in isolation. It's not widely reported though.
I heard he prefers a basket job.
It is hard to know what to believe when we are being fed half truths mixed with whole lies.
So 48 people are supposedly cleared. What about the rest?
http://nationalreport.net/17-texas-kindergarteners-contract-ebola-exposu...
http://nationalreport.net/purdon-texas-ebola-quarantine-update/
I am unsure of the validity of this news source. Perhaps someone from the area can confirm.
The Purdon incident is reported to be a hoax, and the residents of Purdon were greatly surprised to learn of the alledged quarantine, as they hadn't been informed.
Source?
Even with a source I would not know what to believe.
The Main Stream Press has lost all credibility.
Where are the other 52 people whom were under a watch?
I wouldn't take that site too seriously.
http://nationalreport.net/ice-bucket-challenge-vatican-baptize/
It's satire.
Thanks. I will not.
But what happened to the other 52 people who were under an Ebola Watch.
ABC News isn't satire...or...is it?
They had previously reported that 100 people were under a watch. (Link in previous post.)
What happened to that nurse's boyfriend that demonstrated Ebola symptoms?
This was the initial question that led to the exposure of that satire website.
My question is a serious question.
At times what is most important is not what is reported but, that which is not reported.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Report
It's a website similar to the Onion. Bogus news sites... just look at the top of their page for the roving news piece titles:
and EDIT:
should of finished reading through the responses. I see it has been addressed already - my bad :D
My worry is the true negativity of an Ebola patient. I have read up to 8 strains of Ebola can be circulating in a patient. Do the primers being used in PCR to establish viral load pick up all of these strains? Our MRSA primers are not capable to detect some of the novel strains emerging from Europe so we must change soon or get false negatives. Parrotile any answers to this?? I can't find much info on this.
Miffed
Well, doesn't this just fit the bill for the .gov....definition of what 'is' is? So, if you run a test and they are negative, then all is well? Unless this person is spewing virus particles out of every orifice......then, its just a matter of time.
I keep saying, this this can not be 'hid' for long. The truth will certainly come to light soon because if it is here and not being addressed, then it will not stop....lawyers and political hacks can't contain a monster like this with promises of power, money, etc.....
Using Influenza as an example (11 proteins encoded vs 7 for Ebolavirus), we know that passage results in antigenic drift, so I'd reasonably expect the same in Ebola, or whatever. I would guess that this may reduce (but not necessarily eliminate) test selectivity / sensitivity.
Would Ebola undergo antigenic shift? Would the adaptation to the new host allow, or maybe even necessitate significant epitopic change? We can't say yes or no, but I'd be VERY surprised if we were NOT to see a change in surface antigenicity as a result of host adaptation.
So, I'd tentatively suggest the risk of false negatives (using a test methodology designed for the unadapted, "Wild" variant) will increase. Which is probaly NOT the answer you want, is it!!
(p.s. - sent you a few emails. Hope they arrived OK!!)
Parrotile, I look for your posts as I do Miffed's. Thanks to you both for your valuable insights.
.
seriously!
the average reader here understands (just from these threads) what ebola is, how to identify it, what the proper response SHOULD be, how it WILL be, and how to protect themsleves....
the average american...not so much!
TALK ABOUT FRONT RUNNING...
the fight club, for the most part, will be just fine!
Well, I feel a tad bit better if I weren't in my profession. We in healthcare will be unwilling vectors in this due to the idiocy of those above. But you did say for the most part.
Miffed
Me too. Just got word that we will close one of our ICUs and use it as the isolation ward if a suspected ebola pt shows up in the ER. If beds are full (usually 75-80%), it will be interesting. Supposedly the unit will be staffed by "volunteer" RNs. I won't be one of them. When done with the ebola pt, the unit will revert back to regular patients. Wouldn't you just love to then work there? As it is, this unit is already seriously outdated. RNs (and their families)are becoming an endangered species.
While I grant that this is a union site, I recognize a lot of this. Clipboard guy gets around... and these are the elite??? http://www.nationalnursesunited.org/blog/entry/statement-by-registered-n...
Is your Index Case just going to rock up in ED with all the "Classic Symptoms" and still have a GCS high enough to allow a meaningful history to be taken?
Or is your Index Case going to arrive as a result of a Pedestrian vs. Car traffic accident, GCS hovering around 3 - 5, leaking everything (from punctures and / or open fractures) so straight to Resus (Triage Cat 1), maybe in the "Silent Hours" when all Departments are closed / night cover only? An all too typical "All hands on Deck" moment?
Is the Night ED Registrar really going to take much notice of the anxious, maybe tearful bystander's comments that "the Patient was behaving strangely before wandering into the road and being hit!"?? What happens if the Patient had has a bit to drink beforehand? Elevated BAC = easy (but maybe incorrect) "explanation" for erratic behaviour? Elderly (on benzos / anxiolytics / long-acting antihypertensives, maybe with a superimposed UTI leading to predictably strange behaviour)? Partygoer (maybe taken something illicit, and having an adverse reaction)?
Think about it. Case 1 would be "nice and easy", but life in the ED is rarely "Nice and Easy", so on the balance of probability, I'd not be at all surprised if Case 2 might more closely describe our "first encounter".
- In which case, my professional consult opinion would be "we're F****d, M'am!"
Nothing like DIC in a Trauma Resusc. Very messy. I've been up to my ankles in blood full of beer on some nightshifts in the Trauma Center. You never forget what that smells like.
I'd hope that your Case 2 would be too sick to be wandering near traffic but anything is possible.
Unfortunately the microvascular effects of DIC do lead to erratic / irrational behaviour. So even if our Index Case WAS pretty far gone, the micro-occlusive disease (which exactly mimics vascular dementia, even on HMPAO cerebral perfusion studies) could fully account for his / her desire to go wandering, maybe even looking for a cab to take them to ED (25% of our clients arrive in that mode of Public Transport).
As you know, in T1 / T2 cases the last thing on your mind is "is this Patient infectious?" - you've got far more on your plate just keeping him / her "alive enough" to get into Theatre, where the Surgeons can have a go at patching up the vital plumbing!
So, maybe such a big stretch of the imagination (and a stretch with plenty of hard historical evidence to back it too!)
That's true. When the chest tubes and IV lines are flying, the emphasis is on BP status, O2 saturation and tissue perfusion. Getting a temp is often not done until multiple people have gotten very intimate with the patient, who by then isn't able to give any sort of history because of sedation and intubation (if they were indeed able to given one prior to such actions). And the 15% of Ebola patients who are aferile still present a clinical conundrum.
This would be a most unfortunate scenario. It would shut down an entire ER along with several other departments. I hate to think of the wide and thorough exposure of staff.
It seems impossible to imagine running a trauma resusc in gear that is heavier than the current standard. You just can't react quickly in Hazmat level protection.
On the other hand...
The problem would (? will ?) be that there WILL be a significant time delay between resus and availability of the necessary diagnostic data. That WILL be hours, maybe days, since in a trauma case, bacterial (not viral) infection is something you'll be thinking about, maybe a few days down the track; certainly bloods (micro) won't be coming back with any info within that space of time (48h), unless he / she had a roaring infection too, and we don't routinely assay for anything like Ebola unless there's a very high index of suspicion (which will not be the case).
What if resus is unsuccessful? Pathology services for the dead are Clinically non-urgent and the Pathologists usually have a waiting list of customers to process. If our customer's labelled as "just another DOA road accident case" it'll take a day or two to do all the Coronial paperwork / imaging / basic bloods - and with our case having a high BAC it'll take a VERY laterally-thinking Pathologist to even consider Ebola - and if Pathology is busy, this just won't be considered. I have entirely possible visions of "Ebola Eric" lying in a body bag in Pathology for certainly days, and we know the Mortuary Technicians do have accidents from time to time - Patients have been dropped!
As you say, once we know what we were dealing with (days down the track), it'll be interesting for all concerned, and a living nightmare for Public Health / Hospital Admin.
Holy Mackeral there, Andy,
Harvard got something right?
Now I've seen everything.
Survival comes from instinct - not the 'higher-thought' processes. The closer the threat, the easier the decision. It's like a default position.
We'd see more of this if that Pentagon puker from last week had visited the Capitol Building and puked over the gallery railing instead of a parking lot..
The reports here were that the lady actually puked inside a bus full of officers/wives heading for a change of command ceremony.
She was almost immediately declared as not having ebola. Unless they were using one of those whiz-bang insta-detectors the Pentagon is reported to have, that quick of a turnaround diagnosis is not possible. So was she a "vomit-bomber"? Inquiring minds want to know. How about it, Flounder?
Maybe it was just motion sickness? Seriously, who among us has not puked on a bus before, especially after a night of heavy drinking;)
Suicide Pukers. If you see something, say something. But run first.
A Kenyan and a Fed chair from Zimbabwe
Estimated Sir,
I hope this mail encounters you in good health and much largeness of spirit. I am Maneki Neko, a residence of Doggone. Presently, I am living refugely in basement with large varietys of flora and faunas, such as Ugly Spider, Dusty Bunny, Hairy Centiped, and many other poorly but deserving individual.
I am a victim of badly clean and of descent from Harald Bluetooth, Vicking nobility, and a Choctaw womanly of whom little can be known, because she is dead.
I am unsure but I think Harald Bluetooth, he is dead too. He died of death. It is a sad. I was in the basement so who can be knowing what have happen? It is not of my fault, this is all.
I had a singular shock and trauma, which compel me to move from Basment to upper levels, in order to have beer and use of bathroom facility. I would have furthered my cleaning but I have need of beer.
I have always been of work. I am contacting you now because of the present difficult in work, I do not want of work a more but only to drink beer and count to money incoming. This would mean of at least eleven United States dollars (US$11), to buy of case a beer. For now I am having every information and document needed for the clearance of any moneys for peoples send me, for Beer! You will no doubt be adequately compensated with the knowing that your Money have bought Beer and Happiness for Neko, and you may rest easily in knowledge of clean basment.
Your positive response will give me the greatest joy and relief. God bless you.
Regards,
Maneki Neko
Sad, but if you've seen West Africa, you would know these people do not know how to deal with dead bodies, sanitation issues or anything else in packed slums and cities.
Lagos is no different. Kano seems a little more spread out and modernized. Once this goes into a city, even ones in central africa, I think support will collapse. It is just to crowded, hot, dirty, and no sanitation.
On the plus side, at least then you know that people are dying from something.
Disappearing into FEMA coffins doesn't provide that luxury.
I'm living in Nigeria right now, there are authoritative figures hanging around public places and most important buildings scanning people with infared thermometers. I get scanned twice a day typically. They are taking the threat of ebola more serious than they are many other issues relating to the general welfare of the people.
You in Lagos Naija?
I'm living in Nigeria right now, there are authoritative figures hanging around public places and most important buildings scanning people with infared thermometers. I get scanned twice a day typically. They are taking the threat of ebola more serious than they are many other issues relating to the general welfare of the people.
Deez Guyz, do dey have clipboards?
That'll work just fine until the first Obola Victim barfs in Haavad Yaad.
Yeah, too bad we're all a bunch of idiots. Very funny indeed.
The elite must protect their own. They think they have nothing to fear. They are confident they can outsmart an ancient virus existing on this planet for so much longer then humanity. Oh, the idiocy and hubris.
"...To the last, I grapple with thee; from hell's heart, I stab at thee; for hate's sake, I spit my last breath at thee." -Ebola
Miffed
Relax!
The problem is actually where you don't see it!
South America => Zero
and some.. how... south America doesn't score that high on airport checks and hygiene either...
And the second weird part?
Well, in the sick they never mention how many are cured and the number keeps growing but not in line with the death tole.
If you have 9000 infected and 50% dies, next week there must be 9000 death because 4500 plus 4500 is 9K.
And I don't think they'll get there next week.
Why next week? Most die within a week.
Not sure which one you are worse at, math or reading comprehension.
From reported cases, OCT 7 was 8386, OCT 14th was 9216 or 830 REPORTED cases not 9000.
IF 70% die, then you can expect to see the reported number of deaths to increase by 581. Because you don't know the day they were infected and how they will respond there is a lag. So you should expect to see the number of deaths reported be in the 300-500 range increase if Ebola is still spreading exponentially.
PS. To figure out the number of people who survive just take the number 1 - % people who died = % who survived.
It is interesting that so far WHO has not released the survival % figures. They keep putting out infected counts, and death counts, but to date I have yet to see a survival count. The media so far has also been trumpeting the infection count and the death count as if that is the mortality rate.
If blood transfusions with survivors and their anti-bodies actually works, you would think that the survivors would be very high demand and it would be fairly easy to develop blood banks and a distribution system. I haven't heard or read where these have had a significant effect on the disease. Anyone else?
It is apparently more complex than that. "results from one post-Ebola outbreak serosurvey1 showed that 71% of seropositive individuals did not have the disease; another study2 reported that 46% of asymptomatic close contacts of patients with Ebola were seropositive."
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2814%2961...
Saw this posted on another forum yesterday. Suggests that an awful lot of people who pick up the virus do not get sick.
I'd bet it's the same mechanism behind the many cases of "Sex Workers" who are HIV antibody positive (i.e. have been exposed at some time) but who are HIV negative (i.e. have never been successfully infected).
Could be from something as simple (and for them, fortunate) as being exposed to "defective" virus - one that is sufficient to warrant the host to mount a defence response, but sufficiently defective as to not be able to initiate a successful infection, or maybe sustained infection?
I think the answer to why the WHO won't give us a firm mortality rate is we are not dealing with just one strain of ebola. Release of that information would cause a panic.
1976 to 2013: 1716 cases of ebola resulting in 5 distince strains of the disease
2014: Around 9000 cases that we are aware of and the WHO don't give us details about the one strain we are purportedly facing.
I smell a rat.
Wonder how effective the current PCR / ELISA field testing kits are against the latest variants? I'l safely bet we'll be seeing quite a few false negatives (PCR), and maybe enough ELISA false negatives to bring the efficacy of the test into serious doubt.
Unless the virus mutates to a point where their sera wanes in its effectiveness. Let us hope this does not occur.
Miffed
Could be a supply issue, and just how much can you bleed your "Human Bioreactor"? Plasmapheresis is the way to go, and will you plan to "re-challenge" your donors with live virus, so as to ensure they maintain a high titre?
Which variant should you choose? "Off the Shelf" wild-type (the paperwork for getting a Category 4 pathogen is "challenging", and the National Type Culture Collections AND your Government will be VERY interested in your entire set-up!), or will you prefer to bypass bureaucracy, via a more "Red-Neck" approach (dose your donor with "fresh out of a victim" plasma?) At least that will provide exposure to the current circulating variant, but maybe their immunity to the new type won't be so great - "Bye, bye donor??" Mindful of all those reported "incidents" (presumably highly proficient) individuals, this seems the sort of thing OH&S People might get upset over (along with most other 3-letter Agencies, who might have visions of a latter-day Aum Shinriko style of organisation), so you could very well be expecting "visits" from all kinds of "interesting people".
You will need to post-process in order to recover the desired IgG fraction (I'm thinking affinity chromatography with Ebola surface antigens as binding target - it'll be intersting to find a reliable source of purified Ebola surface antigen, (but again, the "resourceful" could always follow a DIY approach), then maybe removal of pyrogen (column, again)? All the other steps (sterilising (via membrane filtration) / freeze drying / packaging) are pretty standard Production Unit Operations.
So, certainly a more complex process than it first appears, but I'm not necessarily discounting this as a viable strategy. How about using the well-tried (and used) Horse model - better "harvest potential", and with a very long history of success for production of antisera (e.g. Horse Antitetanus Immunoglobulin), but with all the attendant purification needs sketched out above.
Of course, if you're really serious - harvest B cells from your Donor's spleen (a "very-freshly-dead" donor might be more readily available - if you feel brave (see above - read carefully!)), then use a FACS approach to sort those producing the desired antibody (same old problem in ID'ing the desired b lymphocytes - you'll need a fluorophore-labelled Ebola surface antigen suite - again, hardly "off the shelf"), fuse selected target(s) with a commercial myeloma line, propagate, (you'll need IL6 for media enrichment), select, and if you're skilled, careful (VERY careful!!), and probably lucky, you've got an "immortal" cellular production plant, producing high quality (and high selectivity) antibody.
Bingo (and in view of the $$ potential, maybe "Ka-Ching" too!!)
SD,
i keep watching for numbers from china and india. with the number of workers travelling between the coast and back to either country it seems surprising there hasn't been some mention.
Indeed! And thers plenty of those in Africa also
Harvard issues a travel ban?
Hmmmm, the CDC says this is a bad move. I wonder which group has the higher IQ?
These people, both scientists and their government bosses must be executed.
http://genome.fieldofscience.com/2014/10/should-government-allow-scienti...
Nukes or E-bola
Putin and China want to push the button....You know USA is ready for a fight......Iran is the target and war is the outcome
So the PhDs' think we need a travel ban? Wonder what Ron Klain thinks?
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Being a Dual Citizen, means Ron Klain has a Double Standard:
1. He agrees with Israel's policy of not admitting Ebola victims or vectors. That is 'good'.
2. He agrees that America's policy of allowing air travel -- and thus allow entry to Ebola victims and vectors - is good, and its ban is 'bad'.
Questions?
p.s. Klain was signed up as a lobbyist for Fannie Mae until 2005, whom he helped overcome "regulatory issues". His wife Monica Medina, is a lawyer and environmental activist, who serves as Principal Deputy Undersecretary for Oceans and Atmosphere. Power positions in Gov run on the family. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Klain
One thing we know, Margaret Chan hates americans and so does president Obola.
Barry doesn't hate all Americans! Remember, some are Muslim...
And from his native home Kenya.
And a bunch are rich, white bankers.
I think the FED is the bigger threat....I can take the Muzzies....I Think you should not care about so much O and think.....Never mind....time to get to that under-ground bunker....Maybe a super-volcano....Who the hell knows....but we are F-ed
Ignore facts much? Project much?
Is that why all the Muslim countries around Israel are doing so great? Is that why Israel suffers and gets no US aid, nor do its Double-Citizens occupy US positions of power, wealth or influence and why they are not on Obama's Cabinet?
/sarc
I've been pondering a question. If one of our soldiers sent over there to battle Ebola should become infected, should they be eligible for a Purple Heart? The rules seem to say no, and I'm sure the administration would rather just consider it a "workplace accident" and blame the soldier for carelessness.
http://www.recognizethesacrifice.org/purple-heart-criteria.html
Recall, if you will, the incident at Benghazi. With that fresh in your mind, think through what you just asked and I believe the answer will be clear.
"Mistakes were made."
What difference does it make!!?!?!?!!!! RAWR!!!
of course it is "workplace accident" due to carelessness as the soldiers have all the excessive training, experience and full PPE gear.
U.S. Soldiers Get Just Four Hours of Ebola Trainingand
Fort Campbell Troops On Ebola Mission Won’t Get Full Protective GearGood use of the passive tense.
"What difference does any of it make now???!!!!"
they'll blame the soldier for not following procedures and guidelines and for taking his PPE off incorrectly
From the headline on Drudge they are not getting PPEs.
Sounds about right, why am I not surprised.
During WW2, soldiers that contracted malaria in the islands of the western pacific received purple hearts.
Unless the virus becomes more deadly it does not appear to be nearly the threat that catching a cold is in the United States.
Now could someone please do something to make the 405 freeway safer.
that statement makes no sense. I don't believe the cold kills 70% of the people who contract it.
As for the 405, try driving slower, or take a different route. If you get Ebola, see what choices you have.
It actually is very deadly, just not super-duper contagious unless it goes airborne.
GERONIMO!!!!!
This is gonna go fucktastic after the election. They got Flounder to threaten legal implications and everything is on hold until "voting" has commenced. All about optics and economics.
This november is going to be a fucking circus. People are pissed, but they don't know why they're pissed.
That's cuz their stupid and yes, you are correct.
But hey, we all know that a $15/hr minimum wage will fix EVERYTHING!
/sarc
By fix you mean kill all small business that is left. The 15 an hour is just a ploy and will never be implemented. It is for votes and will be dropped after 11/4.
You're assuming that they give a fuck about small businesses. I'm not convinced that they do.
Someone might get something out of this link for small business advocate Lloyd Chapman.
http://www.asbl.com/videofiles.php
Food and Water.....Is there anything else
As long as we're willing to pay $15 for a "value" meal.
You do realize that it is a mid-term election in the United States. A tiny minority of people will even bother to vote and an even smaller group will give a shit about who they vote for. Step out of your feverish bubble. And as for what's at stake. The answer is almost nothing. Whichever team that is not in power will block any meaningful legislation. It is a total shit show in Washington and no election can fix our broken system.
You're right, B7GR. The political impulse to do nothing lest one be criticized for it has led to the lack of any effective oversight via our votes.
That is the problem. We cannot really know what is going on. The government can declare "national security" and say nothing if there are 50 cases in each and every state.
They have already made people sign documents about self- quarantine, why not an NDA about what they see or know?
pods
HIPPA. My cousin is an epidemiologist at Emory U(runs the dept., no shit) and she can say nothing to me about anything.) Total info blackout. The silence is deafening and speaks volumes.
NDA... Cuz its a drill... Of national security importance...
ANYTHING to prevent a panic. Especially if caused by a Suicide Puker.
They are hell-bent on using the News Blackout, to decouple the PR problem from the Medical problem. The PR Image must be maintained at all costs. "The Status Quo of TPTB must be maintained", and... "Truth is a commodity" to be managed and manipulated by the central planners, like all other commodities. Simple, really.
I.R., can you talk with your cousin in terms of "Hypotheticals"? I.e. can he/she respond in kind?
;-)
HIPPA is used to hide a lot.
Because there are people like me, who would ascertain the consequences of not signing the NDA, and when it wound up being thrown into a cage indefinitely, would sign it, then violate the shit out of it after the quarantine was up. One thing that they will not want is somebody who is willing to go to trial.
I'm with you, but they also could fly my ass off to some hellhole in one of the 'stans where you will be "played" with until you die.
Or more likely, someone that I care deeply about.
And it is all perfectly legal.
pods
When you do such a thing, you have to do so publicly that anything they do is viewed by even the stupid fucks in this country with suspicion.
Good one, pods. It reminded me of an old line from a 70s sitcom (The Flip Wilson Show), where Flip did a skit about him "not being willing to fight".
The response was "True, we can't make you fight, but we can send you where the fighting is, give you a gun, and let you decide".
+100. Last week I saw how media is either totally inept in reporting potential ebola cases or the articles were being sanitized to the point they did not make any sense. I will still go by my gut to decide when to self quarantine.
This is wise, but I would not go with your gut. As unreliable as the information coming out these days can be, you want to judge when to go into quaranteen based on the actual, not perceived, risks to yourself, and wiegh them against what you will lose by isolating yourself.
True. I follow MSM in small dosages to see what their agenda is. Luckily I live in a very rural area giving me ample of time for consideration of self quarantine. My total lifestyle has changed since 2010 that I can literally self quarantine in a second. Believe there will be plenty of time till it takes roots here if it should at all. Worse case scenerio is the govt not reporting active cases so one must always be prepared.
Exactly. It's the .gov reponse that concerns me.
Never let a crisis go to waste.... even if we have to manufacture a crisis to advance our agenda.
"Yes, Mr. President, but imagine if we first just let it get A LITTLE BIT WORSE..."
Whats spreading like wildfire right now? Fear. Not Ebola.
Pods,
Bingo.
We believe ebola is killing these people, however, how many have died from malaria, malnutrion, dengue fever, etc and then thrown in a body bag? How many people have been tested after death? Who is tabulating and distributing the data?
How much of the ebola outbreak is truth and how much is hype? Most important, what agendas are being carried out?
After 911 we had the patriot act and the Iraq war. What will follow from ebola's wake?
The other question is how many ebola cases have gone unreported? The infrastructure in West Africa isn't exactly up to snuff for monotoring this kind of stuff.
Yes, it could be far worse.
Have you seen this?
BREAKING! 'Ebola Crisis' Hoax CONFIRMED! CNN+NYT Caught Red Handed!!!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQu18bom5nw
When living overseas in the Pacific Islands I had a friend come down with hemorrhagic dengue fever and the symptoms were very similar to what is described by these supposed ebola cases. His German wife was a nurse and recognized immediately what was going on and got him into intesnsive care and saved his life. Certainly there is this type of dengue in Africa. I had dengue (not hemorrhagic) twice in the Pacific Islands and even that was terrible enough with very high fever, vomiting and no appetite for one week each time.
Ban Condoms....they only serve to restrict travel of disease...and the CDC and Obama say restricting travel makes the problem worse.
so the best way to avoid sexually transmitted disease is to ban condoms and the restriction on travel they represent....
best,
the democrat party
The virus looks like it could be a new Cirqu de Solie show in Vegas (or DC - the Moordor on the Potomac).
Obola probaly dreams of a large outbreak in our country - like Sugar Plum fairies in his dreams.
NoVa
How quaint William, The virus strands look just like little mermaids.
As always, Bravo!
New strain: OBOLA. "New & Improved": More virulent than the old strain.
And still straining our patience.
THE WHO? YOU'RE TALKING ROCK AND ROLL RIGHT?
In an interview conducted in 2007, a prominent Russian scientist who defected to the United States told PBS Frontline that Ebola is just one of many genetically engineered bioweapons:
(See: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/... )
Dr. Kanatjan Alibekov was the former First Deputy Director of Biopreparat from 1988 to 1992. Biopreparat was the Soviet Union's biological weapons program. Alibekov defected from the Soviet Union and moved to Washington, DC in 1992... In the 70s and beginning of 80s the Soviet Union started developing new biological weapons -- Marburg infection biological weapon, Ebola infection biological weapon, Machupo infection, [or] Bolivian hemorrhagic biological weapon, and some others.
The U.S. Dept. of Defense mirrors all biological weapons developed by the Russians, of course. And as the theory goes, they need to be tested somewhere to see just how well they work. Why not target a bunch of rural Africans? After all, that's what Pfizer did with its own vaccine experiments that killed African children.
http://havacuppahemlock1.blogs...
thumbs up, FYI the links didn't work for me, the PBS one definately not working, the blog link gave me an error message I wasn't familiar with.
@ Global Hunter,
Here's the PBS link:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/plague/interviews/alibekov...
TY Chupacabra, my sister is doing her MD residency in a hospital in the USA I try to keep her informed of things we discuss here. She'll accept a PBS link, would probably dismiss ZH unfortunately but I do my best to look out for her :)
Then give her both the PBS link (FIRST) and then, following that, the ZH link so maybe, the next time, she does not catagorically dismiss it.
Tell her that you got the PBS link from Zerohedge...after she has watched the show. She needs to LEARN that you do not catagorically dismiss information because you disagree with the agenda of the source.
I will consider what CNN reports as well as Fox. But I am skeptical at believing it. (And she is going to be a Doc?...OMG)
Thanks Tall Tom, you describe how I "play it" I try to send over original source from ZH articles to the family members I care about so they can't dismiss me as the "crazy conspiracy loon". I also try to not send them too much information over a period of time. Most people will really fight back hard and dismiss people if they think I (or anybody else) is preaching to them so I just every so often send an article or link. Yes she's training to be a doctor.
Most of what passes for knowledge today is nothing more than rout learning. Are there any courses in critical thinking offered at any level of academic study today?
try this:
Ask your educated friends to list as many logical fallacies as they can.
(prepare to be disappointed, if not shocked)
http://www.logicalfallacies.info/
My wife is an educated Bolivian and thinks you're nuts about some Bolivian hemorrhagic disease. It never existed. I asked her 2 minutes ago since she's sitting right here next to me playing candy crush. The only thing similar is Mechupo which is a local expression for a boozer.
That's some educated Bitch you got there.
Machupo virus
Bolivian Bolivian hemorrhagic fever (BHF), also known as black typhus or Ordog Fever, is a hemorrhagic fever and zoonotic infectious disease originating in Bolivia after infection by Machupo virus.[1]
BHF was first identified in 1963 as an ambisense RNA virus of the Arenaviridae family,[2][3] by a research group led by Karl Johnson. The mortality rate is estimated at 5 to 30 percent. Due to its pathogenicity, Machupo virus requires Biosafety Level Four conditions, the highest level.[4]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolivian_hemorrhagic_fever
She says she's not a bitch because she never charges for services.
I'm putting Bolivian hemorrhagic fever (BHF) down as potential for any country that touches the Andes Mountains. All of South America pretty much.
"My wife is an educated Bolivian..."
Logical Fallacy #10. Appeal to Authority.
See what I mean?
Then she's never heard of the DC Hemorrhagic Fever (DCHF), or the New York Hemorrhagic Fever (NYHF)?
After being infected, you cough up and bleed money out of every pore and orifice.
Infects ~ 53% of the population (who pay taxes). The other 47% are immune, and represents mostly current and former Gov employees, and those who benefit from Gov largesse if IV injections.
Now "Ken Alibek", in the US, long time defector. See his book: "Biohazard".
But the Soviets didn't create new pathogens. They tweaked existing ons - just as did the US.
pbs link was interesting read, thanks. although i have to admit the guy lives in a dream world because he thinks US gov is there to serve and to protect its citizens while they are actually gearing up to slaughter them en masse in case of an insurrection.
just an example:
"I believe, if the United States government decides to study this approach (development of non-specific immune boosting protective preparations) very seriously and starts discussing this approach with scientists, we will be capable in three to five years of making biological weapons absolutely useless."
LOL. not only would this render BW absolutely useless, but also the pharmaceutical industry and most of the modern health-care system. baaaaaaad for the economy... next he would propose to eradicate the corruption so we wouldn't need the government? didn't think so.
Chupa, did "Dr. Alibek" (as he is now called in the US) tell you who he works for and what he does?
A: Same game, different Team jersey = His agent got him a better pay and better lifestyle.
p.s. Did you get the double-entendre on "agent"?