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Ebola 2014 Is Mutating As Fast As Seasonal Flu
Yesterday we reported that according to Peter Jahrling of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease - one of the top authorities in the world on Ebola - and who is on the front lines fighting Ebola disease in Liberia, there is something different about the current Ebola outbreak in that not only does it spread more easily than it did before, but the viral loads in Ebola patients are much higher than they are used to seeing. "I have a field team in Monrovia. They are running [tests]. They are telling me that viral loads are coming up very quickly and really high, higher than they are used to seeing.... It may be that the virus burns hotter and quicker."
That is one observation on how different the current Ebola outbreak may be from the traditional fare. Another one comes courtesy of Operon Labs, which as cited in detail below, notes that "the current Ebola 2014 virus is mutating at a similar rate to seasonal flu (Influenza A). This means the current Ebola outbreak has a very high intrinsic rate of viral mutation. The bottom line is that the Ebola virus is changing rapidly, and in the intermediate to long term (3 months to 24 months), Ebola has the potential to evolve."
The question is evolve into what?
Submitted on Behalf of Operon Labs, Contributor to Spatiotemporal Modelling Project
Ebola 2014 is Mutating as Fast as Seasonal Flu
Background:
The current Ebola 2014 virus is mutating at a similar rate to seasonal flu (Influenza A). This means the current Ebola outbreak has a very high intrinsic rate of viral mutation. The bottom line is that the Ebola virus is changing rapidly, and in the intermediate to long term (3 months to 24 months), Ebola has the potential to evolve.
We cannot predict exactly what the Ebola virus will look like in 24 months. There is an inherent stochastic randomness to viral evolution which makes predictions on future viral strains difficult, if not impossible. One basic tenet we can rely on is this: Viruses tend to maximize their infectivity (basic reproduction number) within their biological constraints (Nowak, 2006).
These evolutionary constraints can be extremely complex, and can include trade-offs between virulence and infectivity, conditions of superinfection, host population dynamics, and even outbreak control measures.
One of the few statements we can make with confidence that the Ebola genome is changing at a specific rate, which is explained below.
Ebola Mutation Rate:
Analysis of the available research suggests that the Ebola 2014 virus is currently mutating at a rate 200% to 300% higher than historically observed (Gire, 2014).
Ebola Genome Substitution Rates (Gire, 2014)
Furthermore, the Ebola-2014 virus's mutation rate of 2.0 x 10−³ subs/site/year is nearly identical to Influenza A's mutation rate of 1.8 x 10−³ subs/site/year (Jenkins, 2002). This means Ebola 2014 is mutating as fast as seasonal flu.
Disclaimer: This paper contains no evidence (for or against) alternate modes of transmission for Ebola, nor is this paper postulating that genetic changes have impacted EVD clinical presentation (although evidence for this has started to emerge). This paper is simply demonstrating what appears to be a rapid rate of evolution in the Ebola 2014 Virus. Many recent Ebola viral mutations have been synonymous mutations, some have been in intergenic regions, while others are non-synonymous substitutions in protein-coding regions. All have unknown impact at the present time. Such questions should be the subject of future scientific research. This article simply points out that Ebola in 2014 is undergoing rapid mutation and adaptation. The future implications of Ebola's rapid evolution are unclear.
We chose to compare Ebola-2014 to Influenza A (Seasonal Flu) because Influenza is one of the fastest-mutating viruses (Jenkins, 2002). Unlike chickenpox (VZV), which people usually only contract once per lifetime, Influenza can infect a single individual many times repeatedly over the years. One of the reasons Influenza is able to re-infect humans each year is because the Influenza's high mutation rate allows the virus to generate 'escape mutants'. Escape mutants are Influenza viruses which are no longer recognized by human immune systems. Each winter presents us with a new mutated strain of the Influenza virus. Rapid mutation is beneficial to Influenza genetic fitness (in regards to antigenic regions), because it allows a 'new' Influenza virus to circulate year after year.
The benefit of a high mutation rate in Ebola 2014 is different -- the genetic changes in Ebola-2014 allow for rapid exploration of the entire fitness landscape in a brand new host -- humans. We need to be aware that the Ebola-2014 virus is undergoing rapid adaptation.
Ebola in Zoonotic Reservoir: Viral Genome adapted to Fruit Bats. (Green)
Ebola in Human Hosts: Viral Genome adapted to Humans. (Red)
Ebola Genotype will move Green -> Red during serial passage through Humans.
Until the Ebola outbreak is brought under control, the Ebola-2014 virus will continue to seed and adapt in its growing pool of West African human hosts. We need to consider that as the weeks and months go on, the rapidly-changing Ebola-2014 virus will undergo repeated export from the West African region to countries around the world.
As new Ebola cases grow in West Africa and elsewhere, we are effectively conducting 'serial passage' experiments of Ebola-2014 through human hosts. The repeated passage of Ebola-2014 through humans is exerting selection pressure on the Ebola-2014 virus to adapt to our species (instead of fruit bats). The introduction of Ebola-2014 into a large pool of West African human hosts (coupled with the complex dynamics of evolutionary selection pressure) may allow the Ebola-2014 virus to become more transmissible as the months go on, particularly in the absence of effective control interventions.
The high mutation rate we see in Ebola-2014 reflects its ability to rapidly explore the fitness landscape. The ability of Ebola to undergo rapid genome substitutions and SNPs, coupled with genetic recombination, will allow 'survival of the fittest' in Ebola-2014 genetic variants (on both the intra-host and inter-host levels). New Ebola sub-clades are created with each passing month (there are already four sub-clades as of August 2014). New Ebola genetic variants are created with each new infection, though most are selected against. Rapid adaptation emerges from the high intrinsic Ebola-2014 mutation rate, coupled with the virus's ability to undergo RNA recombination during superinfection.
Molecular dating of the Ebola-2014 outbreak (Gire, 2014).
Probability distributions for both 2014 divergence events are overlaid above.
This phylogenetic tree is based on 99 Ebola viral genomes deep-sequenced from 78 distinct patients in Sierra Leone (Gire, 2014). We can see in the figure above that there are at least four Ebola genetic clusters (or sub-clades) based on phylogenetic analysis: These Ebola clusters are called GN, SL1, SL2, and SL3 by Gire et al. The key takeaway is that even prior to July 2014, the current Ebola outbreak had already accumulated significant genetic diversity. Furthermore, the dominant circulating Ebola variants have changed over time. Up to four different Ebola-2014 viral sub-clades (groups of genetically related Ebola isolates) have circulated between humans since the onset of the 2014 Ebola outbreak.
As the number of people affected by the 2014 Ebola outbreak has grown, so has the number of Ebola unique viral mutations and unique viral genetic lineages. We can expect Ebola 2014 viral lineages to grow as some function f(i) proportional to the number of people infected with Ebola.
Ebola-2014: Acquisition of genetic variation over time (Gire, 2014).
Fifty mutational events (short dashes) and 29 new viral
lineages (long dashes) were observed.
The diagram above suggests that as the Ebola-infected host pool grows, so does the number of unique Ebola viral lineages (Gire, 2014). This implies that Ebola acquires genetic diversity as it infects more people, particularly if the virus undergoes recombination during superinfection (Niman, 2007). The growing number of new Ebola viral lineages will undergo natural selection for some 'optimum' balance of virulence, infectivity, tissue tropism, immune suppression, and other parameters which maximize the reproductive fitness of the Ebola virus in humans. What that final virus might eventually look like 2 years from now is anyone's guess. But the explosion of genetic variation suggests that the Ebola virus will become more difficult to contain as time goes on, which is why early action is important.
The idea that the Ebola-2014 Virus jumped species, but is now somehow 'static' or 'frozen in time' is a mistake. The Ebola-2014 virus is undergoing a period of rapid adaptation in human hosts, as evidenced by the Ebola RNA sequences deposited in Genbank, and the studies referenced with this article. Hopefully, interventions (like contact tracing) will be able to stop Ebola-2014 before the virus optimizes its genotype.
These are two scenarios to outline what may happen in the future. The critical variable determining the global outcome of Ebola is the response in West Africa, not the response in the United States.
Best Case Scenario:
WHO immediately deploys contact-tracing teams on the ground in West Africa. The US Military is deployed as well, and constructs hospitals sufficient to care for the sick. The hospitals are staffed by qualified (read: well trained) caregivers. Teams on the ground track down and care for Ebola-infected patients across West Africa, distributing self-treatment kits, food, medicine, and expertise. An effort is made to involve local authorities and community leaders. These efforts cause measurable reductions in the basic reproduction number of the virus by the end of 2014.
Within 3 months to 9 months, the outbreak in West Africa peaks, levels-off, and begins to fade. The Ebola virus never has the opportunity to acquire any significant mutations, due to its limited host pool. Ebola is fully under control by early 2015. Sporadic cases in other countries are dealt with by treatment and contact tracing. By Q4 2015, multiple Ebola vaccines and drugs are in the pipeline limiting the overall threat Ebola poses.
Worst Case Scenario:
The international response is perpetually behind the curve. Every response action is 8 to 12 weeks too late. Statistics from the WHO become volatile and are unreliable as the lack of deployed personnel make hard numbers impossible to pin down. By 2015 the number of infections is in the hundreds of thousands in West Africa. The West African region exports 'asymptomatic infectives' which go undetected by basic screening. These individuals 'seed' outbreaks in other countries.
As more people become infected, a significant mutation arises that allows for a longer asymptomatic but infectious period, increasing the R-0. Globally, cases continue to double every 16 days, contact tracing infrastructure outside the West becomes saturated, and hospitals are overrun. By early-to-mid 2015, the global pool of Ebola-infected patients are in the millions, mainly centered in West Africa and Southeast Asia with multiple strains of varying virulence. A sudden change in the outbreak epidemiology caused by a recombinant Ebola strain causes confusion about how to respond. Efforts at developing treatments/vaccines become logistically complex and ineffective.
The implication of the Ebola 2014 mutation rate is this: A single Ebola mutation doesn't necessarily mean the virus will become 'airborne', or that the virus has altered tissue tropism, or that the virus spreads more easily. But a high intrinsic rate of Ebola mutation means that such changes may become possible in the future. If the number of people infected grows into the hundreds of thousands, or even low millions, then the probability of a significant 'constellation' of accumulated Ebola mutations with phenotypic impact becomes more likely. The problem is that accumulated Ebola mutations will scale with the size of the population infected. Conversely, in a small population, such Ebola mutations are not likely to have a significant impact. It's a bit like the virus is buying lottery tickets... The more lottery tickets the Ebola virus 'buys', the more chances it has to 'win'.
Next Steps:
The general consensus in the scientific and epidemiological community is immediate intervention in West Africa is necessary in order to avoid taking the risky outcomes possible in a 'worst case' scenario. A suitable response would need to include airlifting self-treatment kits with thermometers, the distribution of life-saving drugs, the construction of Ebola treatment centers, hospital staffing, contact tracing teams, and so forth. A robust international response must happen soon in order to ensure that the current situation with the Ebola outbreak remains a 'best case' outcome.
References:
[1] Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak. (Gire et al, 2014).
[2] Rates of Molecular Evolution in RNA Viruses: A Quantitative Phylogenetic Analysis. (Jenkins et al, 2002).
[3] Isolates of Zaire ebolavirus from wild apes reveal genetic lineage and recombinants. (Wittman et al, 2007).
[4] Ebola Recombination: Recombinomics Commentary. (Niman, 2007).
[5] Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Equations of Life. (Nowak, 2006).
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We've been studying viruses for over 100 years. Not one of them has changed the way their method of transmission. Not one. Just sayin'. Doesn't mean Ebola won't, but it sure puts a lot of the hysteria in perspective.
All is well. ALL IS WELL!
ding ding ding ding
.....bring outcher dead....
Wonnerfullah.
We finally get some hard data, and it's all bad news.
I still don't understand why Duncan's household didn't get sick. Lots about this we don't know.
As outlined in prior analyses of filovirus outbreaks, simply, not everybody gets it. The stuff is an angry consumer of it's flesh ad blood primate hosts .... but some people just.... sail through.
Give it a few days.
I think it was Jharling or Peters or some other knowledgeable folk said the other day that the incubation period is more likely out at about 49 days or so.
huh
Ebola virus may be able to persist in the semen of survivors for up to seven weeks after recovery, which could give rise to infections via sexual intercourse.[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease
The "good news" take-away is that endangered west African fruit bat populations are currently experiencing a miraculous recovery...
ZH'ers are given to "conspiracy theory" explanations, but they are also quick to see govt manipulation and hidden agendas.
Why have most jumped on the ebola fearmongering bandwagon ?
It's already proven to be a non starter.
2 cases that are being downgraded.
My "conspiracy" theory, is that this AND ISIS is a distraction designed to make us forget the lies/scandals/policy inaction/ global missteps of the last 6 years.
I can see ebola Zombies... from my other office, which why I'm working out of the secret Gnome Cave office in the Alps now, and avoiding the Ebolaland office like the plague. (The local Christmas festivities also rock here so that's another to stick around until at least 12th Night.)
Not everyone enjoys the luxuries that come with being a field nigger on Uncle Sam's plantation.
Just like every other issue of the last 20 plus years, Ebola won't be solved. Just papered over and forgotten... until it's too late.
THere's no papering this over. Aren't you reading the same ZH articles I am about how inernational spread (wide) is already inevitable?
Fella, it's ineveitable now that 9000 have been infected, mostly in slums, where they couldn't leave the country if they wanted to. Wait until this blow up like WHO and others are predicting (it's a plague, it acts in relatively predictable ways once it gets legs). When it starts affecting the more affluent in these countries (poor countries, but every country has some), the people who can get out. Eventually, every person with the capacity to do so will leave. Already, the most conservative projections are admitting that non-symptpomatic victims will come:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/u-s-ebola-cases-may-exceed-two-...
That piece got a lot of attention, but no one mentions the key bit at the end, about how these folks think 24 new cases are unlikely, but we will get some non-symptomatic visitors. Each represents potential spread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ak0xJlqhgmY
I updated this to make it more accessible to leftists (took most of the venom out) and added new evidence and highlights. There are arguments you have not heard, and it's also a good introcuction to the situation for others. Please consider sharing it.
Short : cruise lines, airlines, restaurants, gyms
(Lifetime Fitness anyone ?)
Long : clipboards, czars, N95 masks, hand sanitizer,
military coups (i can always dream ! ).
<cough>
Seriously, if there were a large outbreak of ebola in America, it would be hard to find any stocks to be "long" on.
Anything related to biological containment would be in demand
@buyingsterling
i watched the youtubeguy. hes (USA) very concerned about refugees from the south. im from europe. NOBODY here talks or writes about the 100 000 refugees comin from africa. they dont go for registration in italy or spain or greece, they go north, to the wealthier countries.
i predict, there will be cases poppin up all over europe. we wont be able to track down patient zero. these people live in the underground.
and fluseason is comin. lots of people cant afford to miss a days work, a days payment, they will go to work even with fever. this thing will come over us like an explosion.
the chain brakes at its weakest point. the weakest point is the one we ignore.
Just because we haven't had an outbreak here in the West doesn't mean it won't keep accelerating in Africa. If it jumps to India or some other crowded Asian country the incidences could explode, and it would only be a matter of time before it seized hold here too.
I have no idea how likely this is, but what's really a worry is if it becomes pandemic, evolves, and then constantly goes round the world in a different strain every year like flu. Even those who survived previous outbreaks may not be immune to new strains. It could wipe out a significant fraction of humanity over several decades.
Ebola 2014 is mutating as fast as seasonal Flu
Ummm, and how many strains of Ebola do we suppose the US Bio-weapons lab has at its disposal?
Correct.
And a quick mental notepad thought: the most easily spread mutations are the ones that will survive and propagate.
They may be less deadly but more easily transmitted. If it mutates to more easily transmitted but with a 30% mortality rate that would still be a pandemic that causes massive death worldwide; and especially in the densely populated regions you mention.
Wow,
Reason # 15 or 16 why "ebola" is a ruse.
Make sure the countries we owe, get it.
They will be too busyridding themselves of that to be hating us.
huh? - those folks over there do that to bats?
that's sick -
And there you were thinking 'Batman' was just a story.
- But apparently tasty - http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-08-13/ebola-crisis-rages-west-african-villagers-are-warned-away-fruit-bats
It is a bit like Hitler said, make the big lie, keep saying it, soon they will come to believe.
Maybe anthrax will make a comeback, you remember that scare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDcwehiaBGw
I'm sure the MIC are working on 'ebothrax' even as we speak.
Your "common or garden" Anthrax is not going to be too much of a worry, and it's a very common soil organism (especially in livestock farms). The "Anthrax" the UK MOD sprayed over Gruinard Island was a different kettle of Anthrax entirely.
Which is the reason why landing there was banned until comprehensive decontamination http://www.faqs.org/espionage/images/eeis_03_img0987.jpg
ZERO "Official Information", but "those in the Business" were pretty adamant that the variant chosen had special properties / advantages, with the strongest rumour being that the variant was particularly likely to produce pulmonary disease, along with a significant degree of resistance to sulphonamides / penicillins.
Well, we will soon learn a lot more about this virus thankfully since we can now study it in real time with our very own index patient! Of course we many need a few more for a decent sample size to make a better statistical analysis for conclusions. I'm sure the idiots running the show won't disappoint.
Miffed
"Patient Zero." This much I do know of "outbreaks."
So its already been modeled....now what? Should I do something? Wear a scary mask and "jump the fence at the White House"? I'm still unclear and waiting for anyone other than Sanjay Gupta to advise...
Our new ebola czar will see to it.
The issue here is not that this strain of Ebola will suddenly mutate into a truly airborne strain (as opposed to one transmissible via aerosols) as much as formulation of an effective vaccine now becomes much more difficult.
A strain that has a longer asymptomatic period during which the virus is transmissable is the worst case development...
How would that work though? You need a sufficient amount of virus to shed to be contagious - and that high load is what causes your symptoms. If you could carry a high viral load and not get sick, it then would, by definition, be much less deadly, if at all.
Think of the immono-suppressed population.
Yeah - but then it's not really any more dangerous than any other common virus. A typical seasonal flu is hell on the young/old/especially vulnerable too. The scary part about Ebola is that it it is deadly as fuck to everybody.
The reason for this is because an Ebola strain with longer asymptomatic but infectious period means an increase to the R-0 (basic reproduction number, aka 'infectivity'). In an SEIR model published in 1999 (Arreola et al, 1999), THE EBOLA VIRUS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE DYNAMICS OF THE DISEASE (Arreola, 1999) , we learn the following...
a = alpha = rate of progression from I1 (asymptomatic infective) to I2 (infective w/ obvious disease)"According to our deterministic graphs, it would be disastrous if a population where given a vaccine or drug that would decrease the [alpha] rate. We have seen that as [alpha] decreases the value of R0 increases. We calculated that the maximum amount of time that a person should remain in I1 should be, on average, about three and a half days. If on average, individuals are spending a longer time [than 3.5 days] in the I1 stage then we will have an epidemic." (Arreola et al, 1999)
The corresponding graph from the paper is found here:http://operonlabs.com/sites/default/files/field/image/r0vsalpha.png
In the graph, alpha is the reciprocal of the amount of time spend in compartment I1 (asymptomatic infective). Thus, if alpha is below 1/3.5days, or about alpha=0.286, then there can (theoretically anyway) be an increase in the Ebola basic reproduction number.
So as long as people spend less than about 3.5 days in compartment I1 (asymptomatic infective) , there is not a significant impact on anything. If Ebola-infected individuals spend longer than about 3.5 days in compartment I1, there is a corresponding exponential increase in R-0.
Luckily, there doesn't appear to be any evidence to support such a scenario at the moment.
Thanks for submitting this article. Obviously, I'm hoping for the "Best Case Scenario" as published, since the "Worst Case Scenario" is deeply disturbing . . .
There has been a complete lack of good reliable primary source information on the ground, since the limited data we have one the outbreak is in one of the poorest regions on Earth. This lack of primary source information has been compounded by a lack of scientific objectivity in the media. (We have supposed 'scientists' talking like football players, with quotes like "We are going to win this!")
My hope is that the public is able to research the topic for themselves, and draw their own conclusions about what level of risk (if any) is present, and what policy response (if any) is warranted.
Any Family or Business connection to Jacob and / or Monod? Good choice of "handle", by the way!
It's not all bad news... The tinfoil hatters can rejoice (and bite of their noses to spite their faces). Since the Holy Eboly Hoax Virus is mutating as fast as seasonal flu, that means the oligarchs super secret vaccine from this time last year when they were getting ready to commence virus deployment will now probably provide the oligarchs will the same negligible level of protection from their CIA/USAMRIID hoax virus as the fake vaccines that the oligarchs are planning on inoculating the serfs with.
Dead Oligarchs.
There's usually a silver lining, you just have to know where to look.
"I'm not Dead...!!!"
"But you will be soon."
I feel happy!!! I feel happy...
Doesn't this put a kink in any patent claim by CDC? "But your honor, the virus was in puberty and couldn't stop itself from mutating."
Stay away from dieing peeps.
Two aspirin and call me in the morning.
"If you think you may have been exposed to #Ebola, minimise close contact with others" - on the WHO home page!
http://who.int/entity/csr/disease/ebola/ebolasocialpix13.jpg
I'd have never thought that! On the other hand, if "others" include those you have an axe to grind against, maybe this will "give you ideas". . .
Several people have indicated that they plan to travel to Washington, D.C. if infected.
The use of disinfectants and antibacterials have been forcing viruses to adapt and grow stronger. Nature always wins. Always.
Step 1 - Spread fear
Step 2 - Chaos ensues
Step 3 - People willingly give up liberties for security
Step 4 - Force inoculation
Results - Population reduction-the curtain is lifted-government becomes one
I agree there is a psychological component to Ebola itself....one clearly expressed by equity markets and "the Ebola play." (Something of course not even mentioned in this Full Retard missive.)
Ebola is the "nuke of microbiology.". But as with actual nukes presenting great fear does not mean great threat however.
Indeed the response has been while well nigh incompetent (no quarantine/send American boots on the ground over there) it is also totally predictable given both the timing and political realities.
In short " great trading opportunity" as a Super Fear trade is created (sell transports/buy "Ebola cure") and the immediate reaction turns into an equal and opposite reaction.
In short..."short sellers get killed." (Traders make a killing.) Rinse/repeat.
Can't speak to Ebola because I know nothing of the thing. But I can speak to fear/greed/government incompetence and an election.
This article certainly is worthless as well.
High dosages of Selenium at about 2mg/day has been shown to stop Ebola from mutating and also from multiplying.
http://www.rexresearch.com/ebola/ebolatherapy.htm
http://www.rexresearch.com/ebola/seleniumebola.htm
"Taylor: Coincidentally, I began to study Ebola less than a month before the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Zaire that brought this virus so drastically into the public consciousness. I did so because of a poster presentation I had seen that spring in Santa Fe, at a meeting of the International Society for Antiviral Research. A Russian group presented a world map showing the geographic areas where various hemorrhagic viral diseases tended to occur, and I was struck by the fact that the area shown for the filoviruses Ebola and Marburg matched a region in Africa that I suspected might be a low-selenium region. What we found was striking: several gene regions in Ebola contained large numbers of UGA codons, up to 17 in one segment. We later published a paper showing that it might be possible for Ebola to synthesize selenoproteins from these gene regions, and proposed a mechanism whereby this might induce artificial selenium deficiency and contribute to the blood clotting characteristic of Ebola pathology.During the revisions to the final draft of that paper, we learned of a 1993 paper in a Chinese journal that reported the use of selenium to treat an Ebola-like hemorrhagic fever, with remarkable results. Luckily, the English translation of the abstract was available. Using the very high oral dose of 2 mg selenium per day as sodium selenite, for only 9 days, the death rate fell from 100% (untreated) to 37% (treated) in the very severe cases, and from 22% to zero in the less severe cases. Apparently there were about 80 people involved in this outbreak. Dr. Hou of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, the author of this study, has since told me that he thinks more lives could have been saved if he had been permitted to give the selenite by injection, because in many of the more severly affected there is so much organ damage due to internal bleeding that they may have been unable to fully absorb or retain the oral dose of selenium. All in all, this is the closest thing to a curative result in the treatment of hemorrhagic fever that I have ever heard of."
Yeah but big Pharma can't make a buck off of it so it can't work.
Take it easy with the selenium:
Although selenium is an essential trace element, it is toxic if taken in excess. Exceeding the Tolerable Upper Intake Level of 400 micrograms per day can lead to selenosis.[91] This 400 microgram (µg) Tolerable Upper Intake Level is based primarily on a 1986 study of five Chinese patients who exhibited overt signs of selenosis and a follow up study on the same five people in 1992.[92] The 1992 study actually found the maximum safe dietary Se intake to be approximately 800 micrograms per day (15 micrograms per kilogram body weight), but suggested 400 micrograms per day to not only avoid toxicity, but also to avoid creating an imbalance of nutrients in the diet and to account for data from other countries.[93] In China, people who ingested corn grown in extremely selenium-rich stony coal (carbonaceous shale) have suffered from selenium toxicity. This coal was shown to have selenium content as high as 9.1%, the highest concentration in coal ever recorded in literature.[94]
Symptoms of selenosis include a garlic odor on the breath, gastrointestinal disorders, hair loss, sloughing of nails, fatigue, irritability, and neurological damage. Extreme cases of selenosis can result in cirrhosis of the liver, pulmonary edema, and death.[95] Elemental selenium and most metallic selenides have relatively low toxicities because of their low bioavailability. By contrast, selenates and selenites are very toxic, having an oxidant mode of action similar to that of arsenic trioxide. The chronic toxic dose of selenite for humans is about 2400 to 3000 micrograms of selenium per day for a long time.[96] Hydrogen selenide is an extremely toxic, corrosive gas.[97] Selenium also occurs in organic compounds, such as dimethyl selenide, selenomethionine, selenocysteine and methylselenocysteine, all of which have high bioavailability and are toxic in large doses.
-wikipedia
good news, bro. brazil nuts are extremely high in selenium. go nuts.
just don't go too nuts, or you'll get selenium toxicity.
Almonds too. Pity growing them uses so much water (as Californians have noted)
There are multiple 'off-the-shelf' therapies (both FDA-approved drugs, supplements, as well as experimental drugs) to deal with Ebola infection. Operon Labs will be addressing Ebola treatments in a comprehensive future article.
While I have not specifically examined Selenium in Ebola, I do know that Selenium plays a crucial role in immunity and in liver function. Selenium is required for proper function of glutathione and its host enzyme Glutathione Peroxidase. The latter enzyme is a metalloprotein which requires Selenium as an essential cofactor. Glutathione is critical as this is the body's 'trash can' through which it eliminates Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS). ROS are especially prevalent during a severe infection, as byproducts of cell death as well as immune respiratory bursts. It's conceivable (but not experimentally proven) that Selenium could improve outcome in Ebola infection.
There is a strong body of evidence that Selenium plays a crucial role in viral infection 'in general'. In Selenium deficient mice, a mild strain of Influenza (A/Bangkok/1/79) exibits increased virulence (Beck, 2002). http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12730444
In terms of Ebola Virus Disease, some of the posts here are absolutely correct that much of the disease pathogenesis comes from a host 'cytokine storm'. But keep in mind -- not all 'cytokine storms' are the same. They are not a simple matter to analyze. You cannot necessarily extrapolate from one virus to another. You have complex immunological feedback loops, and they are non-trivial to interrupt. If it were trivial to inhibit severe sepsis, patients in severe sepsis would not have such paltry survival rates. But maybe we are just approaching the problem in the wrong way... Perhaps some of the scientific public should review the research to see if selenium has been tried in murine models of sepsis, or against pandemic strains of influenza. I don't know the answer to this at the moment.
Here's what I can tell you regarding Ebola pathogenesis (this is not to scare anyone... this is purely a scientific discussion).... The 'cytokine storm' in Ebola comes from multiple factors...It would take pages to go over, but here's a start... Why does Ebola kill? (1) The failure of Ebola-infected immune dendritic cells (DCs) to activate and interact with T-cells (complement activation), (2) The failure of a robust B-cell antibody production, (3) Suppression of host Interferon and Interferon-Stimulated Genes (ISGs) through Ebola proteins VP24 and VP35, (4) Skyrocketing inflammatory cytokines in host plasma secreted from Ebola-infected Macrophages (4) 'Bystander apoptosis' (spontanous death) of healthy non-Ebola infected T-cells and NK Cells, (5) Cytokine Feedback Loops (IL-1beta skyrockets inducing IL-1RA which also skyrockets), (6) The induction of lethality-associated host genes like matrix metalloproteinases genes which dissolve connective tissue, (7) Eventually progression to DIC and Severe Sepsis-like syndrome.
All of the above factors are implicated in the failure of host immune response in the pathogenesis of Ebola in humans and in some non-human primate (NHP) models.
For the enterprising researchers out there: The cytokines which have positive correlation with death (in humans) from Ebola Zaire are as follows (in rough descending order of importance): IL-1Beta, IL-1RA, IL-15, IL-16, IL-6, IL-8. The chemokines which have positive correlation with death from Ebola Zaire are as follows (in rough descending order of importance): MIF, MCP-1, EOTAXIN, M-CSF, IP-10, MIP-1Alpha, MIP-1Beta, Gro-Alpha.
One important 'off-the-shelf' treatment which I personally have very preliminary evidence to support is high-dose Melatonin. This would work in a number of ways, but principally through the suppression of IL-1Beta as well as the suppression of the entire constellation of host MMP gene expression. MMP genes dissolve connective tissue (collagen) in the extracellular matrix. Melatonin suppresses these effects through suppression of IL-1Beta and suppression of MMP genes. These effects of Melatonin have documented peer-reviewed evidence (though not for Ebola specifically), though Melatonin has been investigated in Phase II trials to suppress inflammation after surgery. Unfortunately, we do not know what the melatonin dose for Ebola might be (if it works at all), but the dose is likely to be high (10mg/kg/day or higher). To complicate matters, the absorption of melatonin is somewhat erratic.
Another important 'off-the-shelf' treatment for the cytokine storm is that of statins (FDA approved cholesterol drugs). Statins have been clinically proven to reduce the progression from Sepsis to Severe Sepsis in hospital settings. Statins have also showed reduced rates of mortality from hospitalized pneumonia patients. Whether statins would work in Ebola is anyone's guess, but it's plausible, and I'm certainly not the first to suggest it. I will say this, which I have yet to see published: Statins also inhibit HMG-CoA, which would suppress downstream production of Farnesyl-PP and GeranylGeranyl-PP (enzymes which are required by many viruses for prenylation and intracellular virion transport).
Most likely, anti-Ebola therapies will need to involve a cocktail of drugs (much like HIV is treated)... Some drugs will be needed to inhibit or reduce viral replication... Some drugs to support host organ function and clearing of ROS... Some drugs to inhibit vulnerable points in the 'cytokine storm'. etc.
More Ebola treatment modalities will be discussed in a future Operon Labs article, but some of the information I see posted by members here is absolutely on the right track. Anyone investigating this topic should add Melatonin and Statins to your research if you are investigating suppression of a virally induced 'cytokine storm'.
Contact Info: admin .at. operonlabs.comHigh dosages of articles from ZH keep me up to speed on what is really happening with Ebola, since the MSM is just feeding me paranoia without any logic or scientific facts.
Talk about flogging a dead horse! Isn't it time for ZH to give it a rest?
(I know, I know... the end of the world is nigh...buy guns and ammo... stock up on a year's supply of food... and, most importantly, buy GOLD and SILVER... half the world's population will be gone two years from now... bla! bla! bla! ad nauseum.)
Can I hit it for a while? I'm bored. Then we can harvest it's lips, eyes and intestines and call it an alien experience. I mean, there is so much shit you can do with a dead horse. Hell, you can even mail it's head to your ex. Think of that! And so as not to get arrested, enclose a few recipes.
knukles gets green arrows for being witty; I get the red arrows for not being funny.
I get it. This whole thing is just a big farce.
Let's try this: .A horse walks into a bar, and the bartender says "Why the long face"? The horse replies, "Evolutionary Design".
A priest, a rabbi and a horse with a frog on his shoulder walk into a bar. the barman says "what is this, a joke?"
A horse walks into a bar and steals my girlfriend of five years.
A horse walks into a bar. A chicken crosses the street A lot of animals do different things. It is not our place to judge.
...... it can be a tough room........ you here til thursday??
+1 :-)
Never seen ZH sell out to the dark side like this. Lots of evidence coming out now it's man-made outbreak not really ebola etc, but you won't see any of that here likely.
It's like first few weeks after 9/11 around here, any dissent from govt/msm story is considered lunacy.
That's not fight club, that's stupid spooked sheep along with huge medical egos and their apocalyptic projections wanting a million deaths so they won't be proven wrong again (and that's just plain psychotic (and huge egos usually are)).
Fortunately they will be proven wrong again.
Their apocalyptic projections always assume perfect petri dish conditions and always ignore environmental factors like far better sanitation and hygiene here in America that keeps these bugs from getting traction here.
Virological advances haven't saved America (what virological advances?), they still have dark ages thinking.
Good ole 1st world sanitation and hygiene has saved America (just like it dropped hospital and iatrogenic death rates), and will continue to ... and dark age neanderthal egos will still try to take credit for it ... while hoping for a million deaths so they can be right for once.
Without efficient and reliable safe water supply, and safe wastewater management, the Western Metropolitan "High-Density" lifestyle would be impossible.
These are not the "glamorous" jobs ("I work in a Sewage Works" is a guaranteed party "conversation-stopper") but glamorous does not equal essential.
Don't worry, you have people like former financial product-slinger knukles being all "Matlock" with his wry humor about Ebola, while ZH tries to fan the fire about how Ebola will kill us all any day now.
I guess the fapping noise from the bunkers near ZH headquarters went down a few decibels, so they had to stir up the coals. If anything ZH said was true, then most of the USA would've been infected by now, including regions shut down from everyone bleeding out.
But I guess reality is a bitch when it doesn't fit your end-of-the-world narrative.
http://www.liberianobserver.com/security/breaking-formaldeyde-water-alle...
Is the formaldehyde mutating?
There must be a different strain in Ghana
http://www.jimstonefreelance.com/ebolie.html
Ivanovich Good to know. There is a lot to be concerned about with Ebola no doubt, but though ZH is a great site it is rampant with doom and gloomers. Another bright spot is out of 7 infected that were treated in the US 6 survived with our healthcare system. For those that got treatment early its 6 for 6.
Reston Ebola has been very well documented to be infectious without direct contact. Call it "aerosolized", call it "airborne"... Call it a big problem.
The virus family is also viable in blood for weeks, and recovered patients could be shedding virus for months.
It doesn't have to get worse... It's already worse.
In a few years, we could have globally endemic Ebola. Like a cold or flu... You get sick, then a few months later you get sick again. Imagine going through life flipping that coin about once a year.
Luckily, Reston was not dangerous to humans - otherwise we would have been completely fucked.
And yes - this strain of Ebola is very very dangerous and everybody should keep their eyes open and ears to the ground.
One of the big mysteries is why Ebola Reston is non-pathogenic in humans. Interestingly, six of the workers at the Reston animal facility (Hazleton Laboratories) were discovered to have seroconverted (they had Ebola antibodies in their blood), but actually never got sick. This indicates that their immune systems cleared the infection without as much as a sniffle.
The question I have is do they have neutralizing antibodies to any strains of Ebola now circulating. Of course I suspect none would volunteer for an experiment.
Miffed
Could be done in vitro. Something along the lines of immobilised Ebola (inactivated or surface antigen), expose to "subject IgG", wash, label with FITC-mouse anti-Human IgG (the old "sandwich assay" methodology).
Compare with a "control" non-exposed human IgG sample. Any difference in fluorescence would at least point to some specific binding.
You volunteering to prepare the "immobilised Ebola" substrate?? :-))
True and viruses were here long before us and i dare say long after us.
Report to your Regional FEMA Facility immediately...
Quick!
Fast track a vacccine to save the masses!
How can you tell if your one of the masses?
Look around the table and see who's asking.
Nah. It's all gone, past, done, went bye bye, no more, nada, verklempt, gonzo, zip, zilch, none
You can't get it on a bus.
So you better get on the bus or off the bus.
That is the question.
And now back to Tamiflu Tom, our local CDC representative from the mental ward.
Quick, another distraction!
Look, a rainbow colored unicorn dropping Skittle shit candies.
Daddy, I wanna Unicorn
That's not a Unicorn honey, it's a pigmy pony with a toilet paper tube glued to it's head.
No it isn't it's a Unicorn. I wanna Unicorn
Honey...
I WANNA FUCKING UNICORN. UNCLE OBIE TOLD ME WE COULD ALL HAVE UNICORNS
SHUT THE FUCK UP
I WANT A UNICORN
AAAARRRAAAGGGHH!
Great, by 2016 Obola will have mutated into the much deadlier strain, Hillarybola.(May Bill's cheating ways save us all from a term of damnation)
Nice article.
Scared shit out of me.
12 months out this thing is likely gonna be hell on wheels.
Yeah, people think that now US patients have survived or died, it's all going to go away.
But it's not going away in Africa.
And though our medical teams were able to deal successfully with it here in the West, just think what that means in terms of incentives.
You're a semi-wealthy African who thinks he might have it? Well, in Africa, you have a 50% chance of surviving... in the West, 85% chance. What you gonna do?
They should have put the survivors on a witness-protection scheme and told everyone they'd died. Now, we're a magnet for anyone with ebola and enough cash for a plane ticket. Africa is poor... but that's still a lot of Africans who will be making their way here, by hook or by crook. Their survival depends on it.
If you're "semi-rich" in Africa, you certainly are at the top of the local food chain, so you will have connections. Worried about those "connecting flight" details showing up? Simply fly to a major EU air transport hub (return or one-way), catch internal rail to another EU air hub then book your onward flight from there.
All of a sudden you didn't "fly from Liberia", but did "fly from Paris CDG / Frankfurt / Rome".
There MUST be so many escape avenues available, that I suspect "banning flights to the USA" has more to do with "window dressing" rather than effective management of population. Especially since there are still flights to South America destinations http://www.makemytrip.com/international-flights/monrovia-south_america-cheap-airtickets.html
Notice the number of routes terminating in India too . . . . .
Europe has got to be a lot easier to get to from Africa than the USA; and it's easier to get 'free' healthcare there, too. I imagine that's where we'll see most of them turning up.
So, in other words; we're fucked!!!
Thank you Tyler for the best and most indepth article on this Ebola outbreak. To bring this to our country is a crime against humanity. The sentient beings are the problem not the virus. If this virus achieves a mode similar to Flu A with its virulence there will be no stopping it. Viral loads are in the billions. Viral loads for HIV primary infections are generally in the hundred thousands. The order of magnitude is staggering.
Yes the summation to the microspeak is we are fucked.
Miffed
No joke. I said ebola getting into the cities was a big deal, I didn't know the half of it.
Serious shit is coming. If it's likely to be bad, then get ready for bad, because it's coming and there is no stopping it now.
True. I had watched previous outbreaks with great fascination. This bug burns through the body like a shark during a frenzy. Sporadic outbreaks told the story how this thing burns out. The only answer possible. A vaccine for this monster? Dear god really? A mutating machine with this virulence? Look at vaccine efficacy in Flu A outbreaks, not great as people suppose but for most healthy people, flu is not lethal. Ebola is at a completely different level.
Miffed
Any talk of a vaccine is just bullshit now. Punks are dreaming. They have to come up with a new flu vaccine every season -- they've been doing that for years -- will they be able to manage that for ebola too? For that matter will there even be a "ebola season" or is this going to be full-on-full-time burn up?
I had no idea this thing was so hot. Well I guess an RNA virus would be, we just haven't had to deal with them much.
Shit.
Okay boys and girls, game on. Bring your game or GTFO. This shit is coming like a freight train, eating as it comes, and it's face-changing in the bargain. Not this year (probably) but next year could be as ugly as it has ever been.
Just a tradeable/traceable event near as I can tell.
"Stay close to the billionaires as clearly they will have a cure!"
Correct me if I'm correct but once you have Ebola you have it forever.
More like Herpes yes,yes?
MSM (I know) says Spanish nursing assistant is "free" of Ebola. If true, I guess you cannot have it forever.
I hope she's OK with "voluntary" plasmapheresis. Her IgG is going to worth it's weight in Unobtainium, not just Gold!!
You won't have it forever, just for the rest of your life. Say, a week or two.
"host population dynamics"....does that mean species differences, or differences within species, ie age, race etc?
This implies the entire 'universe' of human (not bat or primate) host population dynamics... Think of it like a vector in N-dimensional space, where N is an impossibly large number, and N represents each parameter which could vary.
But yes, this 'universe' includes anything and everything... differences in host genetics, age, immune status, population mixing, contact frequency, smokers vs non-smokers, diet, nutrition, BMI, etc.
Anitigenic drift becomes antigenic shift. Then what.
Will detection remain reliable? (i.e., are we still relying on materials using the original, "wild-type" antigenic profile)
Unreliable detection (using simple, field-hospital equipment) = no real idea of progression. PCR / RT-PCR doesn't come under my definition of "simple-to-use" Field Hospital equipment, so we're down to ELISA or similar, which we already know is not so reliable.
You know (and I know you know) that we DO see antigenic drift WITHIN a population, during ONE 'flu season - which is why people can (and do) "catch the 'Flu TWICE" - in ONE season - because the second infection is antigenically distinct from their first infection. So why did we NOT expect Ebola to do just the same?
Did I, or did I not predict this weeks ago??
One potential problem with PCR detection equipment that it must use both a forward and reverse primer which target the viral genome. Since there have been changes in some Ebola intragenic regions, this could concievably effect the accuracy and precision of PCR detection tests -- maybe. This would depend on the specific forward and reverse primer sequences (and what regions of the genome they target) in these test kits. If the primers target the highly conserved genomic regions (likely), their accuracy would be unchanged. If they target areas which have had substitutions, this could effect primer binding and potentially alter test results. Bottom line is I simply don't know if the accuracy and precision of the test kits has changed. -admin .at. operonlabs.com
One potential problem with PCR detection equipment that it must use both a forward and reverse primer which target the viral genome. Since there have been changes in some Ebola intragenic regions, this could concievably effect the accuracy and precision of PCR detection tests -- maybe. This would depend on the specific forward and reverse primer sequences (and what regions of the genome they target) in these test kits. If the primers target the highly conserved genomic regions (likely), their accuracy would be unchanged. If they target areas which have had substitutions, this could effect primer binding and potentially alter test results. Bottom line is I simply don't know if the accuracy and precision of the test kits has changed. -admin .at. operonlabs.com
This comment makes you look like a muppet. The viral sequence can be monitored for changes and the primers updated accordingly. No big deal.
I was a demon for good primer design. I always checked out published primers and very often improved on them enormously.
Don't you use a primer design program? I used Lasergene: http://www.dnastar.com/t-products-dnastar-lasergene-evolution.aspx It was great.
Muppets depend on kits. When you do research under financially constrianed conditions you learn to fend for yourself and get around all those grossly overpriced kits.
Research is different from clinical. There is far less latitude in clinical. The validation of primers to satisfy FDA regs is staggering and cost prohibitive. We used to do a lot of RUO testing but this has been eliminated due to these requirements. You can't ( at least in the USA) just design your own primer and run clinical samples without extensive validation. Every slight modification in the primer would require another complete validation. This is why we "muppets" use kits with FDA approval. They have corralled us with costs and massive regulation.
RUO testing is not reimbursable as well. Few labs could survive doing much of it.
Miffed
Same in Australia. All Clinical (as against Research) diagnostic kits and subcomponents have to be approved by our Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) - who perform a similar role to the FDA. Whilst the Universities may easily DIY for non Clinical purposes, for Clinical Diagnostic operations, Australian Law requires that all Diagnostic materials have to have prior TGA Licencing approval - which here means we are usually tied to the equipment Manufacturers' consumables catalogues (with associated inflated pricing).
Golly Miffed and Parrotvile, I completely fotgot how constrained clinical labs are. I had the misfortune of working in one for about a year many years ago before I got my doctorate. I imagine your clinical labs are much better. It was mindless soul-destroying drudgery. God help you if you had an independent thought. Research labs can have incredible dramas* but are usually fun and entertaining and operate on a much higher level.
Your comments about clinical constraints are disheartening. I've already concluded the US is so corrupt and degraded an effecctive response to Ebola may never happen or happen way too late. Appointing a spin doctor to lead the charge is beyond pathetic. Someone who knows what they are doing and is willing to mercilessly cut red tape and put all hands to the pump is needed.
*If the general public only knew... life in the life sciences makes James Bond look dull.
Diagnostic clinical testing for humans is not at the level of rapid innovation you see present at the in-vitro wet-labs. Changes to human NAT diagnostics require FDA paperwork. All US NAT assays are FDA-approved and regulated. I can't find anything about primers being exempt -- maybe best case you can get the 510(k) premarket submission if your test is SE, but that still requires waiting about 90 days after FDA SE approval.
Anitigenic drift becomes antigenic shift. Then what.
Will detection remain reliable? (i.e., are we still relying on materials using the original, "wild-type" antigenic profile)
Unreliable detection (using simple, field-hospital equipment) = no real idea of progression. PCR / RT-PCR doesn't come under my definition of "simple-to-use" Field Hospital equipment, so we're down to ELISA or similar, which we already know is not so reliable.
You know (and I know you know) that we DO see antigenic drift WITHIN a population, during ONE 'flu season - which is why people can (and do) "catch the 'Flu TWICE" - in ONE season - because the second infection is antigenically distinct from their first infection. So why did we NOT expect Ebola to do just the same?
Did I, or did I not predict this weeks ago??
Sorry, Parrotile. You're outright wrong about cheap, quick, effective PCR detection It's here already: http://www.otago.ac.nz/news/news/otago077848.html
Only time will tell about the rest. Stay tuned for the next exciting episodes of Pandemic.
What life scientist would consider ELISA for even a second in anything like Ebola? For Mycobacterium avium paratubereculosis, yes. Ebola, no.
Marketed yet?? If this gets Regulatory Approval (FDA / EU / TGA) it really has the potential to revolutionise bedside testing.
Sincerely - thanks for this information - and seeing as we're "just over the ditch" maybe I'll nip across and get a closer look? Cheap and effective pushes ALL my buttons right now - and this might be "affordable" enough for "almost-on-the spot" PCR in ED - faster turnround, no risk of transporting samples to Pathology, minimised risk of "missing samples".
Haven't seen this in my usual reading sources - but that means nothing these days since most of our time is spent doing the mundane Clinical work. However, having read the Otago University page, it just shows how far ahead of Oz you Kiwis are - we waste research money, you spend it far more effectively.
Er... I've looked over the literature and wouldn't conclude the prospect of an effective vaccine (or vaccines) is hopeless. The glycoprotein entry hang-up is being addressed. Besides the active immunity proved by an effective vaccine the passive immunity provided by ZMAPP doesn't look all that bad. Finally we have the intriquing prospect of BCX4430. Perhaps the biggest problem might be how fast any of these can be brought on line.
Depends if the Bureaucracy wishes to co-operate or not. If trials show an enormous benefit vs. risk, the pressure may "expedite" the approvals / Phase 1,2,3 trials, but even with the best efforts, the "delay to Market" could still be years rather than months (e.g. 10-15 YEARS for new antibiotics, despite the Global shortage of effective agents, AND the Global increase in multiagent resistance in key human pathogens).
Then - scale up to full production (pilot to full scale is non-trivial), especially in view of a Global demand (or what by then may be a Global demand).
If there's a real panic, the Approval timescale will be compressed, but production timescales are inelastic, and may in turn depend on third-party specialist vendors, who may in turn have their own logistical problems.
So - Exec. Summary - "Don't hold your breath over this one!"
Miffed ...
as usual, you bring tremendous value to the discussion.
some of us may be wondering what your take is on DRACO
processes { http://www.thedracofund.org/DRACOExplained }.
and for those of us in tin-foil hats (hey, i have socks on, too),
their May Day tweet:
https://twitter.com/DRACOfund/status/461875328416501760
thanks, love ...
cdm
If you want to wear a tinfoil hat or wager money... I'd bet on Vlad's horse here. He's not looking for cash handouts (that is a red flag) or shortcuts on clinical trials (in the case of the western "competitors"), since Russian Phase 1 & 2 trials are already done and the ebola specific Phase 3 is underway (There are also at least two other horses in the stable that are being saddled up, but the Googlebot's bad Russian combined with my no Russian slows me down in pursuit of specifics).
(Just on the off chance that any of those nasty things they say about USAMRIID, BigPharma, or the competence of recent US university graduates are actually true...)
But listening to Oligarch Bloomturd's minions solely flog MappBio/Zmapp, Tekmira/TKM-Ebola, Chimerix/Brincidofovir, and FujiFilm/Avigan because they are also "Ebola Plays" is getting really tedious.
US Citizen, Press TV reporter dead in car crash near Syria 2 days after Turkey calls her a spy
http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/20/us-citizen-press-tv-reporter-dead-in-car-cr...
A cement truck; Turkey's low-budget version of a private plane 'accident'.
So, I bought into the Ebola panic the last couple weeks and now kind of think it is being over blown. Does this mean I need to jump back on the panic bandwagon again?
No.
But make sure when you start passing blood that it's just not from all the booze. Headaches, too. And red eyes. Major hangover from 101 proof Ebola. And yer guts'll fell like they're liquefying from the diarrhea. It'll be bloody, too. And gives the same liver blood panel tests. For one, they send you off to the death camp, the other a 28 day program.
Well, I'm hot blooded, check it and see
I've got a fever of a hundred and three
1 problem with the wall to wall propaganda of these days is people quickly forget what they're supposed to be all scared and in a panic over, so I guess they need to be reminded frequently now.
I for one don't know whether to shit my pureed liver out or get off the pot.
In fact, I'm just plain getting numb to it all and starting to ignore the whole fucking thing.
Ebola, FED, Obie, Ukraine, whatever
I kind of believe the same thing. I have been following geopolitical events now since 2008 and it has become tiresome and counterproductive to my overall health and sanity. Time to turn it all off.
Is there a 12-step program for that?
I hear that Apathy Anonymous is a cool group to join.
Maybe I'll join, maybe not. Doesn't really matter much anyways.
pods
Maybe this is why so many old people are... well... old. They just get crushed by a lifetime of bullshit.
Sure, whatever. Meh.
My name is MsCreant, and I'm apathetic.
It's been 15 days since my last apathy
I am the same as you...waiting for the collapse any day now since around 2008. I will say that it has caused me to reflect on my life and what is important and what really doesn't matter. Reading the comments on here (which is still the best) now is more for entertainment than to really gain knowledge. There have been some really smart motherfuckers posting on this site over the years.
Entertainment and smart motherfuckers. You hit the nail on the head! That's why I'm still here too. When I first joined ZH, I used to take most of the gloom and doom at face value. Now I take it all with a huge grain of salt. As my wife wisely says:"Whatever!"
Slowly but surely covering all the bases.
Hellzacomin.
Get prepped and make our own luck.
Have fun in the meantime.
So is there a chance that it can mutate into something that causes politicians to stop lying and trying to control my life?
BTW, kinda disingenuous to have HIV on there.
pods
"So is there a chance"
Yes.
In fact I'd say -- a very good chance.
Though in the run up they will use it to try and grab as much power as they can. However if this thing keeps moving as fast as it seems to be (and maybe accelerates a little) we'll go from "police state" to "state of absolute anarchy" so fast it will make your head spin.
[quote]
The question is evolve into what?
[/quote]
The suspense will last through your lifetime (however long that might be!)
So what? Dude, we've got a Jew handling this shit now!
#SOLVED
Listen up, people! Spewing hatred for Jewish people and Africans will NOT solve the problem. Yes, I know that Ebola is spread because Africans live in filthy cities and eat bush meat. I know that our government, media, and financial systems are controlled by Jewish that often put greed above ethics. SO WHAT?!? Ebola was not 'created' by anybody to punish or exterminate entire races of people....it's a virus that wants to live and will kill you without sympathy or blame. It's not anybody's fault, and those who want to hate people will always find a way to do so.
Aww, your tin foil hat fell off!
Why then this makes the Obama Administration's approach to this disease...what? Incompetent? Suicidal? Treasonous?
All the above.
If the risk of Ebola mutating into something unacceptable is likely -- and there is objective cause for this concern -- then... ANY and ALL actions must be taken to prevent this from happening. This includes any and all Doomsday methods of eradication -- no matter the short-term economic or political consequences.
Failure to act, to act correctly, adequately or timely, will lead to far worse outcomes. Will TPTB in the US and elsewhere show the required leadership? I doubt it, if Pres. Obola and the CD are any guide. Hedge, plan and act accordingly.
"Will TPTB in the US and elsewhere show the required leadership?"
100% negative on that.
These guys are all over-bred elitist punks, couldn't manage their way out of a paper sack. We'll get better leaders but only on the down-side after the current crop are hanging from lamp posts. And then, we'll get bona-fide criminals. Drug lords, ex-cons broke out of jail, convict sociopaths, rapists, lunatics.
A few years from now things might look very different.
So, you telling us there's a chance!
Quick - take the vaccine to save yourselves. Or does this scaremongering do the intended job of making everyone WANT the vaccine? What the hell will be in those vaccines? Nothing good I'd guess.
Well, it seems at the moment the only tried and true method of treating this thing is blood transfusions from survivors because of the antibodies. If the above report is true and this bug is mutating as fast as seasonal flu, it gonna real hard to keep up that form of treatment.
Sorry to highjack this forum but since MW comment section is no longer available i just have to say FUCK THIS FRAUDULENT POS "MARKET" !!! There I feel better. Please resume your regular ZH programming... sigh...
Seems to be good news for the markets. The longer j6p is hammered by ebola stories, lesser it's (neg.) impact on the markets.
will my flu shot protect me from ebola?
Yes dear, absolutely. Now run along a get your shot soldier!
Signed,
The wise, all knowing and seeing CDC
Miffed
A better question is, "Will my flu shot protect me from the flu?"
Someone in my office approached me and ask me the same question. Will the flu shot protect me... I think they will promote the flu shot inorder to differentiate flu symptoms from ebola symptoms.
I always ask them if they have proved efficacy when they ask me about a flu shot.
Nope, because vaccines are so fantastic you can take it as gospel that they work. Nevermind that the people who would benefit the most from them will have the worst immune response to a vaccine and those who have the greatest proper immune response rarely need a vaccine.
Every other type of medicine (I use that term loosely) undergoes double blind, placebo controlled studies gauge efficacy. Nope, not vaccines.
Hell, you could put cholecalciferol in a needle and it would probably have a greater therapeutic effect on your immune system.
pods
I had a flu shot every year (company paid) for over a decade with no adverse effects until last year when I started feeling pain localized in the injection spot for a couple of months which suddenly, almost overnight became adhesive capsulitus (Frozen shoulder). Doesn't sound like much, but it was fucking agony for 9 months. Physio, medication (Naproxen - that had the curious side effect of making me forget my own home address for awhile) and at one point I was offered minor surgery to "fix" the problem because it was utter agony just to dress myself every morning. I became a cripple and it was only by exercising fanatically every day to put motion into the shoulder that it is now relatively normal. It's one of the reasons I haven't been posting to ZH much this year.
I am told there is no medical connection between the vaccination and frozen shoulder, but I'm not the only one in the same situation. Over a year since that flu shot and my shoulder is still not right. So yeah, take it at your own risk.
http://forums.webmd.com/3/cold-and-flu-exchange/resource/13
Tyrell: Because by the second day of incubation, any cells that have undergone reversion mutation give rise to revertant colonies, like rats leaving a sinking ship; then the ship... sinks.
Batty: What about EMS-3 recombination?
Tyrell: We've already tried it - ethyl, methane, sulfinate as an alkylating agent and potent mutagen; it created a virus so lethal the subject was dead before it even left the table.
Batty: Then a repressor protein, that would block the operating cells.
Tyrell: Wouldn't obstruct replication; but it does give rise to an error in replication, so that the newly formed DNA strand carries with it a mutation - and you've got a virus again... but this, all of this is academic. You were made as well as we could make you."
Nice BladeRunner reference.
Where is Roy when we need him to take out the banksters
As I've already posted last Sat, 10/18/2014 - 13:20 | 5350491 Kirk2NCC1701, the Incubation Histogram matters in ways that ZHers and public health officials have not yet fully grasped -- since Math (and its full implications) is not the forte of most Americans. Sad to say. Allow me to re-post here...
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?
FIGURE 4. Distribution of Ebola virus incubation period, by days of incubation
Mathematical navel gazing aside, what I find scary (and telling) are the results and assumptions that are associated with (a) Reliable Vector Tracking, and (b) the short incubation periods of Chart 4 above. What's FAR more scary than the Long Tails, are the Short Incubation periods, that threaten to overwhelm EVERYTHING.
If that scenario ever develops -- if we reach the steep part of the compounding curve, then Containment & Treatment is no longer an option. We then have to shift to Isolation (Keep your distance!), Lock-downs (No one moves from where they are!), and Mass Funerals (Mass Cremation!) after it has burned itself out. Alternatively, draconian/extreme measures would include the fire-bombing of every infected area.
But if it's mutating that fast, it'll eventually stop killing it's hosts. The question is then can you stay out of it's way until that point.
Oh and Evolution for the creationists... See... an organism (you) doesn't evolve. Only a population of them evolves. Which means that you don't get to evolve to become immune to Ebola. You die. Only those immune enough to survive will have children, who will most likely also be immune enough to survive. Humanity eventually becomes immune to ebola. Just that you and all your non immune relatives and offspring are dead.
And the hippy muppets paint mother nature as a kindly old lady.
"But if it's mutating that fast, it'll eventually stop killing it's hosts."
Not necessarily. Some replicated virus will be less virulent, some more so, some more deadly, some less so. . .
It'll be survival of the fittest - whatever that ends up meaning in its host population.
The only sure thing is that engineering a vaccine will be difficult if not completely impractical.
Postulate: Assume some tradeoff between virulence and infectivity.
Under conditions with no 'competition' , over the long term, viruses evolve to some low or intermediate optimum level of virulence, which allows them to stay infective without killing off too many hosts. (Viruses are parasites, after all).
Under conditions of 'superinfection' (meaning two or more viral strains compete for the resources of a single host) , the most virulent pathogen wins (since it replicates the fastest, outcompeting all the other strains, at the expense of damage to the host).
Thus, normally viruses evolve to low to moderate virulence. Under conditions of superinfection (inter-strain competition), viruses can evolve so that they do not optimize their R-0, since in these cases, the most 'virulent' will win (theoretically).
Evolutionary Dynamics (book excerpt on virulence):
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This is all just made-up equations and long-time scales though. Short term, the problem is that the virus jumped from bats (which are not harmed by Ebola and are symbiotic with the Ebola) to humans (whose immune systems freak out when exposed to a novel bat virus).
As to whether Ebola evolves to lower or higher virulence in humans, no one knows for sure. I have heard top scientists (virologists) say the opposite. One says it will evolve to lower virulence. The other says it will stay the same or become more virulent. No one has any idea.
Never listen to anyone who is afraid to say 'I don't know'
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