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Existing Home Sales Jump To Highest Since Sept 2013. Midwest Tumbles 5.3%
Existing Home Sales bounced back from the worst miss in 2014 in August to print 5.17mm SAAR - the highest since September 2013. Of course the surge is driven by Condos/Co-Ops (up 5.2%) rather than single-family homes (up 2.0%) and median home prices are the highest ever for a September at $209,700. It was not all ponies and unicorns though as Midwest saw sales plunge 5.6%. NAR's Larry Yun has some crucial insight for why home sales are rising..."Economic instability overseas is leading to volatility in the stock market and is causing investors to seek safer bets [in housing]," so we assume he is disappointe dby the 1000s of Dow points we have surged off last week's lows?
Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, says the improved demand for buying seen since the spring has carried into the fall. “Low interest rates and price gains holding steady led to September’s healthy increase, even with investor activity remaining on par with last month’s marked decline,” he said.
“Traditional buyers are entering a less competitive market with fewer investors searching for available homes, but may also face a slight decline in choices due to the fact that inventory generally falls heading into the winter.”
* * *
Regional Breakdown
In the Midwest, existing-home sales declined 5.6 percent to an annual level of 1.17 million in September, and remain 4.9 percent below September 2013. The median price in the Midwest was $165,100, up 4.9 percent from a year ago.
In the Southsales increased 5.0 percent to an annual rate of 2.12 million in September, and are now 1.4 percent above September 2013. The median price in the South was $180,900, up 5.1 percent from a year ago.
In the West existing home sales jumped 7.1 percent to an annual rate of 1.20 million in September, but remain 4.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $294,200, which is 4.0 percent above September 2013.
Inventories, Supply, Demand
Properties typically stayed on the market in September longer (56 days) than last month (53 days) and a year ago (50 days). Short sales were on the market for a median of 116 days in September, while foreclosures sold in 59 days and non-distressed homes typically took 55 days. Thirty-five percent of homes sold in September were on the market for less than a month.
And there is no return of the 'normal' homebuyer yet...
The percent share of first-time buyers continues to underperform
historically, remaining at 29 percent for the third consecutive month.
First-time buyers have represented less than 30 percent of all buyers in
17 of the past 18 months.
All-cash sales were 24 percent of transactions in September, up slightly from August (23 percent) but down from 33 percent in September of last year. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in September, up from 12 percent last month but below September 2013 (19 percent). Sixty-three percent of investors paid cash in September.
And finally, some more from Yun:
“Economic instability overseas is leading to volatility in the stock market and is causing investors to seek safer bets, which will likely keep interest rates in upcoming weeks hovering near or below where they are now,” said Yun. “This is welcoming news for consumers looking to buy, although they could temporarily become more cautious by less certain economic conditions.”
So let's hope stocks crash?
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Huh. I guess it really was the weather after all.
Party on, Wayne. Party on, Garth.
I will believe it when they start raising rates. Until then these numbers are just for the sheep.
It's quite the Fed good cop-bad cop act, they have to keep saying they're about to raise rates and abandon QE because their credibility is being questioned, while knowing full well They must keep QE going faster with rates at 0.
"Midwest saw sales plunge 5.6%"
That little tidbit by itself says if folks aren't buying the tools to build houses, then fewer houses will be built. This ain't rocket science...
lol
You are funny.
up near the peak we see many oxygen canisters, oh look over there another climber, wow a china man buying a 2 million dollar condo in ny, wow he flew right over the midwest to get to the peak. oh my where have all the ruskies gone?
always chopy near the topy...
.." these numbers are just for the sheep."..
..you sir are a cynic!
.."It's beginning to look a lot like Elections
Everywhere you go;
Take a look in the market glistening once again
With falling prices and news aglow.
It's beginning to look a lot like Elections
Toys in every garage.
But the prettiest sight to see will be the notice to evict.
On your own front door"..
.. la la la.. no brain, no pain.
More confirmation of no need for Moar QE and why rates need to rise.....Fed keeps trying to find a way to have their cake and eat it too!
Yet another example how everything, everywhere is about the US stock market. Full on fraudulent farce.
And this is just why the rest of the world is abandoning the US.
Party like it's 1999.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXHOSLUSM495S
bought a modest condo in FL for 100,000 back in 2007. Now it and all the other condos in this development are worth around 20 to 30,000.
Many buyers can scoop condos like these up all over Florida for hardly anything. Not to mention that Blackwater is still buying houses up with free money from the gov/fed/whoever.
Most people are stuck and upside down in their mortgages or have been foreclosed on. Those who are buying are probabaly still trying to flip them or just rent them out to all who are trying to find something affordable to rent right now.
Real estate market for the middle-class types is dead in the water. Only big moves in homes are the high-priced shit that investors are buying, especially foreigners like the Chinese.
Most Americans are screwed and aren't buying....there is no recovery....and there won't be for decades.
First timers who are too young and stupid to even know what happened in 2008 are the next suckers in line for shit-credit mortgages though. Banks and Freddie and Fannie are already removing the stricter credit regulations again and lending to people who can't afford to buy just like they couldn't afford their college loans or their 0% interest GM piece of shit car for 25,000 bucks with nothing down and 72 month payment plan.
It's all going to be repo'd and foreclosed on in the end.
agree ... the 3% down subprime borrower is back...!! What took them so long ?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/10/20/frannie-freddie-to-ease-credit-requirements/
What I'm seeing is that "credit-requirements" aren't nearly as much of a factor as the Anti-Money-Laundering Act. You basically have to have an entire year of bank statements, not only showing all of your income and outgo, but documenting where/what each transaction was for. Any sizable transaction not fully documented will send lenders running, regardless of credit score.
Cuz only terrorists use cash.
In the metro areas (especially California) the problem insn't credit, but income. The specuvestors are about to get burned unless they bring back NINJA loans and I think they'd have to repeal major bits of Dodd/Frank to do so. That said Housing Bubble 2.0 seems much more regional than the first. Things are most insane in the metros, other areas seem to have figured one gigantic RE ponzi was enough for the decade.
(hello debtor prisons)
What's the margin of error on this stat?
+ / - horsehit
So lower rates and higher home prices are helpful to the buyers ????
Give me same home for $100,000 @ 10%… instead of $210,000 @ 4% any time
Ding ding ding.
It's just more short term motivation at the expense of the long term. The fundamentals are demanding lower prices, but the fed is trying to fight this to avoid the short term pain, which will now be severe due to all the speculators who will sell into the first sign of price weakness, which will beget more speculative forced selling and so on...
The fed is hoping praying for a REAL economic boom that through labor market strength in employment and growth in real incomes can support (ex-speculators) these artificially high home prices. The problem is, home prices and economic fundamentals continue to move in opposite directions...The price drop in asset values will come--if not in nominal terms, then in real terms...And that's precisely why I'm waiting for the $100,000 house @ 10%.
How much demand has the FED pulled forward since 2000? 20 years? 30? 50???
Hilton is building a new high rise facility just down the street from me on N Ocean Blvd, Myrtle Beach, SC.
It's going to implode, time share only. No ownership condos. Train wreck in disquise.
Now that freddie&fannie has said they will be rolling out loans to everyone including the dead once again, it will be back to the pre-'08 races soon enough. They will be lining up around the block and camping out to get their mortgages. Wash, rinse, repeat. All the herd needs is a shepperd. Stupid always is and does.
Fannie and Freddie to lower down payments to 3%!
Home affordability fixed.
Sarc
year over year basis
august ... -5.3%
september ... -1.7%
NAR also notes -
According to Freddie Mac, after falling for four consecutive months, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.16 percent in September from 4.12 percent in August. Despite the slight increase, interest rates are 33 basis points less than a year ago (4.49 percent).
The NAR do love quotiong the month-to-month when they're desperate for a good headline don't they :-)
For all intents and purposes Housing Bubble 2.0 is over. The moment specuvestors could no longer sell into velocity the ponzi was broken. If I remember the last time volume froze late 2006 and we basically had a holding pattern of slight nominal price rises on miniscule volume until early 2008 when things blew up. So things were "flat" for about a year and a half while the realtards said the next upswing was right around the corner. If form holds that puts us around middle of next year for the beginning of the next bust. Convieniently right when rates are set to nudge up just a bit....
These condos that are considered single family are being built for higher density living standards. It's like the 1960's all over again. Low income housing projects is really what they are and I believe it's intended to herd people into these locals. Trust me these will become the same crime infested projects we have all learned to hate.
Time to bring back mortgage backed securities. FED will buy them.
9 houses, cut off the bankers middle man skimming. That's how you beat the system.
Federal Reserve is a open check book, these assholes have been complicent in managing employment and driving inflation by reducing the size of products and claiming a 2% GDP growth scale.
Each one of these economic bullshiters need to stand in front of a gun firing line.
Bang, bang.
If somone's making min. wage at 6% 30yr zero down they'll have to get the average home price down to 50-100k, 250-500 month? And BofA (not really) will loan it all you have to do is find a 50k home?
I'm watching a train wreck in Chicago; Gold Coast 1 bedroom condos right off the Lake that used to be prime property cant be given away. Multiple nicely appointed 1 bedroom condos have price cut from $250,000 down to $199,000 since July. Its a crash and it's not being talked about in the local real estate press. In fact the local real estate blogs and columnists keep reprinting the same national statistics like today's NAR b.s. headline. We are currently back to 2003 prices if you believe the market. If you believe the headlines than its buy now or be priced out!
Mrs Atomizer has been actively looking for a three bedroom condo in Myrtle Beach. The HOA is horrific. I keep pushing for Hilton Head expansion. Two condo's in Myrtle Beach is enough by my standards.
They pull enough yearly revenue between April and September.
Ironically enough 3 bedroom condos and townhouses here are still flying off the shelf ( supposedly ). The market seems to be older, wealthy and looking for a second home, an in-town, etc. The first time buyer is dead on arrival. I never thought I'd see the day when the 20 something Loop office workers couldnt even afford a single family condo with great transit. At least they still are spending at the bars and restaraunts!
Ironically enough 3 bedroom condos and townhouses here are still flying off the shelf ( supposedly ). The market seems to be older, wealthy and looking for a second home, an in-town, etc. The first time buyer is dead on arrival. I never thought I'd see the day when the 20 something Loop office workers couldnt even afford a single family condo with great transit. At least they still are spending at the bars and restaraunts!
I have a rule to ignore pre-election economic statistics. There are just too many interested parties to be satisfied, and then adjust as needed post-election.
Rentals.
At least that was is driving the few sales around these parts. There are not enough rentals for the renters (formerly homeowners)