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The Magic Number Is Revealed: It Costs Central Banks $200 Billion Per Quarter To Avoid A Market Crash

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We have all seen it countless times before: visual confirmation that without the Fed's (and all other central banks') liquidity pump, the S&P would be about 70% lower than were it is now.

Most recently, this was shown last Friday in "Another Reminder How Addicted Markets Still Are To Liquidity" in which Deutsche bank's Jim Reid said:

The recovery from the lows after Bullard spoke yesterday is another reminder how addicted markets still are to liquidity. Indeed in today's pdf we reprint and  update a table from our 2014 Outlook showing the various phases of the Fed's balance sheet expansion and pausing over the last 5-6 years and its impact on equities and credit. We have found that the relationship broadly works best with markets pricing in the Fed balance sheet move just under 3 months in advance. We've also included our oft-used chart of the Fed balance sheet vs the S&P 500 to help demonstrate this. So end July / early August 2014 was always the time that this relationship suggested markets should enter a new more difficult phase. So we still think central bankers hold the key to markets going forward and there seems to be a hint of change in the Fed.

 

Another view was shown over the weekend, in "The Chart That Explains Why Fed's Bullard Wants To Restart The QE Flow" which shows that when the Fed's excess reserve firehose is turned on Max, stocks surge; when it isn't - as has been the case recently - they tumble.

 

So now that "best Keynesian practices" are out of the window, and everyone has once again turned Austrian, and only the "flow of money" (either inside or outside) matters, the question is how much do central banks need to inject to keep the stock market from crashing, let alone continuing to levitate. Luckily, Citi's Matt King has just done the math, and the answer is...

Here is his answer:

We think the markets’ weakness owes more to an almost belated reaction to a temporary lull in central bank stimulus than it does to any reduction in the effect of that stimulus in propping up asset prices. Figure 5 shows the rolling 3m combined liquidity injection by the Fed, the ECB, the BoE and the BoJ, plotted against the rolling 3m change in spreads. While the relationship is not perfect – liquidity flows across asset classes and across borders, and there are announcement and confidence effects in addition to the straightforward impact on net supply – it is this, not fundamentals, which we would argue has been the major driver of markets for the past few years (Figure 6 shows the same series plotted against global equities).

 

In case anyone missed it, and in case there is still any debate about this issue which we first explicitly stated nearly 6 years ago and were widely mocked by the all too serious intelligentsia, here is the key sentence again:

"it's the liquidity injections, not fundamentals, which we would argue has been the major driver of markets for the past few years."

And with that piece of New Normal trivia behind us, we continue:

For over a year now, central banks have quietly being reducing their support. As Figure 7 shows, much of this is down to the Fed, but the contraction in the ECB’s balance sheet has also been significant. Seen from this perspective, a negative reaction in markets was long overdue: very roughly, the charts suggest that zero stimulus would be consistent with 50bp widening in investment grade, or a little over a ten percent quarterly drop in equities. Put differently, it takes around $200bn per quarter just to keep markets from selling off.

 

If anyone ever needed any confirmation of what we said in June 2012, that "The Stock Is Dead, Long-Live The Flow: Perpetual QE Has Arrived", now you have it, and only qualified but quantified. Because to translate what Matt King - Citi's most respected strategist and the only person on Wall Street to warn about the Lehman collapse and its consequences before it happened, just said - if and when the global central bank liquidity tracker ever drops to $200 billion per quarter or less, the market will crash.

 

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Tue, 10/21/2014 - 11:59 | 5359515 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Since that $200B doesn't really exist, I would venture that it is more accurate to say it doesn't cost 'em a penny.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:09 | 5359547 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Imagined into existance fiat currency is given to a bank which promptly leverages it up x 15. Shortly after new 3 trillion deposits hit other banks which are then leveraged up x 15 again. Rinse repeat.

 

This is how they rule. Imagine currency that they can spend, while the pleebs work.

 

RIPS

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:16 | 5359565 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

This is just the beginning of the worlds largest financial problem in history; the retiring 'Baby-Boomer' generation. The pension funds and entitlements are so absurdly underfunded, they must keep the equity markets on a growth pace to even think about fulfilling payments. When these retirement programs were designed decades ago, they largely had planned for an annual average pace of appreciation between 8-12% on the long haul. That included interest income from bonds/treasuries that today is nearly non-existant, thus all focus by the FED is on equities. This generation has been the largest parasite on this country for decades, from health care to the entitlement programs; it has always been all about them, fuck the future, let them figure it out. What would happen if there was no money to pay out to this retiring generation??  S&P 10,000.............

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:22 | 5359632 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

My Dad received full pension in his early fifties. That, and they gave him 2.5 years salary that they rolled into his IRA.   

Born at the right time, baby. 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:29 | 5359665 rccalhoun
rccalhoun's picture

i jumped off this train when the dow first hit 10,000 in 1999.  was i 15 years early?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:32 | 5359683 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

US Citizen, Press TV reporter dead in car crash near Syria 2 days after Turkey calls her a spy

http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/20/us-citizen-press-tv-reporter-dead-in-car-cr...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:05 | 5359838 Rememberweimar
Rememberweimar's picture

You mean they steal $200 Billion per quarter...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:00 | 5360056 Leonardo Fibonacci2
Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

All your doomsday crap and the markets are bullish!! WTF  I sold my GILD at $95 and its at $105.  You basturds!

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 15:15 | 5360394 Majestic12
Majestic12's picture

"You mean they steal $200 Billion per quarter..."

No, they bill it to "you", Mr. Tax payer....

This can go on forever...until they really get pissed that YOU are NOT paying YOUR debts...you deadbeat!

Thank God that my town of 40K people has 4 MRAPs!!!!

Knock, knock....."collections" calling....

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 16:14 | 5360622 daveO
daveO's picture

Only $5333.33/yr per each of 150m working Americans. Debt slavery!

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:38 | 5359709 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i say 16 years too early.....but its coming up fast !!!

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:32 | 5359679 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

No more being born at the right time in an open-loop radiation and poison world.

Unfortunately, advertised reality says everything is fine. I wonder why more and more people around me are getting cancer...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:52 | 5360029 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I blame all of the "awareness" campaigns.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 16:14 | 5360627 daveO
daveO's picture

+100

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:54 | 5360031 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:33 | 5359684 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Those parasites are the reason you have the opportunity to come here and whine about it.

Blaming somebody else is always the easiest thing to do.

 

What would happen if there was no money to pay out to this retiring generation??

You probably wouldn't be here right now which is not all that bad. 


Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:09 | 5359853 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

Bullshit. Pretty much everyone BUT boomers view them as a negative legacy. Just a generic search of "legacy of baby boomer generation" yields something other than what you seem to think-

https://www.google.com/search?q=legacy+of+baby+boomer+generation&ie=utf-...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:35 | 5359961 froze25
froze25's picture

Agreed, Bull Shit, they have completely let the Liberatard Bull shit happen unchecked.  They are the "If it feels good do it" generation.  They have abandoned thier kids and self responsiblity.  The men of that generation are nothing but boys in mens bodies.  The women are more concerned with fashion then thier families.  Ultra high divorce rate, undisiplined children.  That generation was truely wrecked by the establishments bull shit.  They are the number one user of "Pain killers" and anti depresants.  Truely a lost generation, sad.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:04 | 5360065 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

I have a lot of respect for the Silent Generation and the Greatest Generation before them. Not so much for their brat boomer offspring.

/sort of sarc, lol

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:17 | 5360112 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

Look jerk off!!

I was born in 1947, at the lead edge of the baby boom. I campaigned against the ponzi bullshit starting in 1962 at age 14 and continuously up to the present. All throughout that period the cultural marxists kept increasing the size of the FSA primarily with the Election of LBJ, the man who single handedly (along with Democrat control of both houses of congress) destroyed America with his massive increase in the welfare state.

Like half of my generation, we never wanted any of this FSA ponzi!! But our votes might as well never have been counted.

But then I have been married to the same woman for 40 years, and had 4 children, now young adults for whom I have provided substantial financial assistance. So perhaps I am not a member of the baby boom generation as you define it!!

So what are you going to do about the baby boom generation? Kill us all? (good luck with that!) Repeal social security and force the vast majority of those born between 1945 and 1964 to move in with their kids??

So how do you explain your own relationships?? Are you parentless?? Childless?? Or just an angry, unfocused asshole.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:21 | 5360136 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Why is your well being my problem? Or my kids problem? Clean up your own mess. I kind of have enough on my plate now thank you very much.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:42 | 5360256 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Why is putting your kids through school my problem?  Why do my taxes go to support your kids?  I don't have any children.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 18:38 | 5361233 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

If your mom loses her house whose basement are you going to live in?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 16:26 | 5360657 daveO
daveO's picture

Central Banks are already taking care of it. They'll still get SS, it'll just buy less and less. Most of the BB's, and nearly (80%) all the ones of which I'm related, are hopelessly brainwashed by TeeVee. They're clueless. I'm sure when the gov. tells them to drop dead, they will obey.

http://business.time.com/2013/08/14/a-good-death-how-boomers-will-change...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:55 | 5359777 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

My ass.

 

 

Don't blame the entire BB generation for this Socialist Ponzi scheme, engineered long before they were born.

 

Every Boomer I know, would be happy just to receive the exact money out, that they've paid in over decades of paycheck withdrawls.

 

I'm sorry the younger generations are screwed.  My kids are part of that, so why would I be happy with the fuck-over young people are getting because of evil, thieving, MF Collectivists.

 

We saw this shit going down, this demographic nightmare, probably before you were born, and not a damn thing was done about it.  Bush tried to implement, at least a semblance toward sanity, with individual SS accounts, back in 2003, but was promptly mowed down by the Communists.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:20 | 5359911 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I agree with everything you said except for Bush trying to implement some sanity with individual SS accounts.  That money would still be intested where exactly?  Equities and bonds, which are manipulated whichever way you slice it. 

The point is the system is a shame.  I am doing very well for my age of 36, but I happened upon a family business that I was instrumental in growing beyond our wildest dreams.  I don't know what to do to save for my future. I basically look at life on a month-by-month basis because of the way things are relating to money, which means I am enjoying the fruits of my labor now.  Not sure what else to do, but damnit do I wish I could opt out of SS.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:46 | 5360261 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

I started working after college in 1970--first day on job I had to sign w-4 and the discussion, at a CPA firm turned to that we would never see this money withheld for social security-which if I recall was 4.2% on 4,800 a year ( I started at $10,200 per year.

 

The problem is our fault collectively--we should be beating on the heads of our respective elected officials to do somehtign-10-20 30 and 40 years ago and today

 

rather we get one party saying they want to keep ss and medicare the way they are--and if you look , if you ar ein medicare or soc sec for 10 years when you hit 65 you get money, mostly disproportionate to what you and your employer have put in

 

i get the equivalent of 3.8% on the money I put in, but will never see the principal--a hell of a ponzi scheme. I beleive new immigrants regardless of where they come from if their 10 yeears are at max pay in for soc sec they get a huge disproportionate payout. Someone at half the max gets disproportionate large payout.

 

depending where you stand its fair or not.One thing though-

 

it sure as hell is not affordable.

 

one day we wil wake up and the system shuts down, even with the ability to covertly print, or as I like to say, counterfeit money.

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:57 | 5360318 Southside Stacker
Southside Stacker's picture

I have to agree with Precipice.  You cannot put all of the blame of the BB generation or generalize that all of us are the same.  I think the die may have been cast long before they arrived on the scene with two events--the passage of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution (income tax) and the passage of the Social Security law in 1935.  I would definitely like to receive the exact amount of money that was stolen from me year by year and placed in a lockbox (sarc).  Still I think plenty of blame can be placed on certain members of this generation of which I am a part.  Some of us complained and attempted to resist but we have been shouted down, demeaned and marginalized.  Even the political party that purported to be fiscally conservative has been coopted by the plutocrats, and while Bush did attempt half-heartedly to create individual accounts, much of the rest of what he did was more of the big, deficit spending same (see Prescription Drug benefit).  Of course, blame can also be laid at the feet of Gen X who voted in large numbers for Obozo, whose mere presence makes any sort of reasonable solution nigh on to impossible. I see the leadership, some of whom I personally knew in school, serving the oligarchy and not addressing commonsense solutions to the problem--like spending less money. Now we are faced with close to 50% of the population getting some form of govermental assistance and a banking system that is leaking oil.  I am afraid that a catastrophic systemic failure is baked into the cake, with plenty of blame to go round. 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 15:49 | 5360515 agstacks
agstacks's picture

"Every Boomer I know, would be happy just to receive the exact money out, that they've paid in over decades of paycheck withdrawls"

Here is the problem; the money is gone.  You were stolen from.  The lockbox was not locked.  Now what do I have to do with that?  It's like saying "I'm not asking for a lot, I just expect to get everything back from that Bernie Madoff investment I made a few decades ago." 

It's not like that money is just sitting there and we need to decide how it's spent, it's gone.  Maybe you can help us find a buyer of 5 trillion in US treasuries?  If you can, you can have your money (and it can't be The Fed or "Belgium".)

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 20:17 | 5361555 malek
malek's picture

 would be happy just to receive the exact money out

Isn't that true for every Ponzi participant, towards the end?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:23 | 5359920 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Papa

you seem pretty sure that a generation that is about to get royally screwed planned this outcome for themselves. I suggest a bit more thought on this matter might benefit your view.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:30 | 5359939 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

This clip of beavis and butthead explain how these promises they made to themselves work. They sell school chocolate, and keep passing the same $2 back and forth to each other buying each others chocolate. In the end, 200 candy bars have been eaten, and there is only $2 to turn in.

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ed6bcd878d/beavis-and-butthead-candy-sa...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:36 | 5359965 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

This is the hardest game to play. 

1. Live without debt. 

2. Do not count on or live with any government financial assistance of any kind. 

Looks difficult. It is. 

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:08 | 5359765 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

And yet, and yet... these same Plebeian masses will feel guilty to honor a debt that has no honor.

E.g. If you come up with 5-20% down payment for a house, and pay PITI for a few years but then lose your job, you also lose the house and your down payment. Think Nevada, Florida...

The banks, who have simply conjured your Mortgage into existence, will have made profits. And because your early and uncontrolled exit caused them to not make the maximum profit, they will whack your Debt-worthiness Index (aka FICO credit score).

And the irony continues... Chances are that you have been so indoctrinated/brainwashed, that after losing your job, your home and your credit rating, you'll feel ashamed and guilty about all this. Odds are that you'll feel ashamed of your poor credit score.

Of course should you "choose" to remain an avid Modern Consumer, whatever (car?) loan you get, will have such high interest/Usury rates, that virtually ensures that you remain on the Plebeian debt treadmill. "Bad peasant, bad peasant!"

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:29 | 5359935 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The banks did not 'conjure'. They took your word, printed on paper and signed by you (a very good fellow we are all certain) and the rest of the world, knowing that you are a reliable person, used this promise you made, as being as good as cash itself. Eventually the world is waiting for you to deliver the cash back into the system.

We beg, as a whole, for credit. When it becomes difficult to pay the money back we scream that the evil bankers tricked us. It is as though we never could foresee a day when repayment might be hard.

This has not changed in 300 years.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 15:02 | 5360350 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

Are you retarded?  They conjure up the money they loan you out of thing fucking air and give some stupid lip service to "reserve requirement"

 

Why do they get to invent the money to loan you, but you have to pay it back with your real labor?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:09 | 5359558 Jahbulon
Jahbulon's picture

Beautiful......no one gets hurt, and we get free mana from heaven forever.

In for a penny, in for a pound.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:12 | 5359575 Jaspergers
Jaspergers's picture

It exists in the sense of a wealth transfer (from the world to stock owners and specifically.. well, you know), but yeah 1 penny is also accurate

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:15 | 5359603 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

The world on a Gold MasterCard with no limit and no repayment plan.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:20 | 5359619 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

that much doesn't need to exist...they can just print $39.99 to give to gartman to call the start of a bear market like he did last week with uncanny timing of the V

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:21 | 5359624 doctor10
doctor10's picture

So this is the "real"  cost of keeping the FSA in line?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:35 | 5359690 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

The "real" cost is the complete dissolution of self-reliance and self-sustainability.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:45 | 5359741 H.Norman2fist
H.Norman2fist's picture

Pocket change

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:14 | 5359877 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Money well-spent </sarc> 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:32 | 5359948 Nue
Nue's picture

Actually that 200B is subracted from the economy in the form of currency devaulation. But that only hurts the poor and the middle class and well hey who gives a shit.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:07 | 5359525 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

The house of fiat still stands
But a hard wind 'gon blow

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:02 | 5359526 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

$200B notional.  Leveraged 40X is more realistic.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:09 | 5359557 pods
pods's picture

So who thought it was a good idea to use private script for our money supply?

pods

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:18 | 5359610 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

(Voice of Churchlady): SATAN!

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:18 | 5359614 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Sure looks like a set-up.  When the sheelple refuse to pay, they will crush the sheeple wealth, take it, and shoot the sheep.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:01 | 5359527 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Three years ago this all just seemed stupid, now it's downright pathetic.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:02 | 5359528 NAP
NAP's picture

what about China in the last chart?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:02 | 5359529 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

$200B per quarter is stolen from society rather

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:08 | 5359556 ekm1
ekm1's picture

$200 billion per quarter that primary dealers and shadow banking need to cover gambling losses and still going on.

 

Parties receiving this excess reserves reallocate them by leverage on oil, minerals, metals, stocks, grains etc.

 

Reserves cannot disappear. They move from account to account. Only Fed or Gov can extinguish them

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:40 | 5359724 Hohum
Hohum's picture

I thought you said they were tapering last year.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:47 | 5359745 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Yes, from May 2013 unti December 2013

Untapered in Jan 2014 via Belgium's euroclear

Then they came up with reverse repos

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:14 | 5359880 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct, and all that paper is fungible...

hyperinflation is a done deal, the timing is another matter.

Where are the banker deaths you promised us already?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:03 | 5359533 ekm1
ekm1's picture

$200 bn per quarter

$800 bn per year

$4 trillion for 5 years

 

How large is Fed balance sheet, otherwise known as EXCESS RESERVES?

It is $4 trllion

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:21 | 5359629 ekm1
ekm1's picture

US supplies USD reserve glut to the system

The world reduces exports to USA as a consequence.

 

USA economy is shrinking as a consequence.

You can't eat digital reserves

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:23 | 5359919 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Could that be the reason we are importing 5 to 20 million Hispanics, Haitians, Asians with work authorizations into the US? More taxes, more consumption, more GDP.

Most Politicians are on board. (sarc)

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:32 | 5360192 walküre
walküre's picture

bring 'em in by the boatloads and give them services is a boon to their balance sheets

GDP growth is whatever the hell they want it to show

politicians only care about one thing, their own careers, the graft and how much they can syphon off the system while they're at it.

stupid are those who think they are participating in the sham

best to stay out of it unless you have like the flavor of corruption

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 07:35 | 5362638 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

Just looking at Maloneys recent graphical presentations shows a correlation of 97% between base currency supply and financial markets since 2009......

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:05 | 5359542 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Since there is no reason for them to stop propping this thing up and every reason not to let it crash it's really quite simple; buy everything cause prices are going higher.

Free money.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:07 | 5359544 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the whole thing is all very maggoty

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:18 | 5359903 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Also very magical. YES?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:08 | 5359548 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

It costs who $200 billion per quarter? Where is the part about the taxpayers?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:12 | 5359588 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Not the taxpayers only...anyone who holds the fiat currency.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:18 | 5359590 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Meh....... The taxpayers baring that load are a couple generations away. Who care about them? Go out and borrow for your Chinese shit today.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:08 | 5359552 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:11 | 5359570 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

$200B per quarter, that's a lot of wealth transfer.

"We're going to need a bigger pipeline.", said The Already Rich

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:10 | 5359572 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

200 billion of sweet sweet prosperity injections.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:11 | 5359573 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

record high corporate profits and buybacks play no role?

 

[no doubt, though, QE played a role in both ... but i'm not buying entire market move QE related]

 

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:14 | 5359599 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The record corporate profit party ended last December, unless you are talking about individual companies.

The total of all profits after taxes fell year over year in both the first and second quarters by more than 8 % each quarter.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 15:49 | 5360524 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

we're talking 2 different things

 

the link i provided after tax profits WITHOUT inventory adjustment and depreciation.

 

your link provided after tax profits WITH inventory adjustment and depeciation.

 

WITHOUT is how S&P earning reported -

 

"The NIPA profits measure used is national profits after tax  without IVA and CCAdj, which is the best fit to the  S&P profits measures"

http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2011/03%20march/0311_profits.pdf

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:13 | 5359586 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Luckily for them, it's not real money.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:14 | 5359587 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

When you own the printing press, it's easy, peasy, Japanesy.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:13 | 5359589 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Up, up and away...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:14 | 5359596 Endgamer
Endgamer's picture

"The markets are not rigged."

- Mary Jo White

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:15 | 5359597 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

As a quid pro quo for the Germans agreeing to full-blown ECB QE, why doesn't Draghi just offer them Poland?

After all, we all know they've always had their eye on it.

 

All the French, Spanish, Greek and Italian politicians need is to do is learn how to say in Polish - "Look, you're

just going to have to take one for the team."

 

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:15 | 5359605 yogibear
yogibear's picture

To them it's all printed money anyway. If it cost $1 trillion/quarter it wouldn't matter. They want massive inflation they'll eventually get it raining down on them with a currency crisis.

A currency crisis is the only way to stop this nonsense.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:24 | 5359637 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Pocket money, as long as u r the master of the printer and the army.......in case ur debt is held by foreigners

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:24 | 5359642 katchum
katchum's picture

Where's China, they print too?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:39 | 5359714 NAP
NAP's picture

I already asked that.

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:01 | 5359823 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Chart Of The Day: How In Five Short Years, China Humiliated The World's Central Banks

...

In order to offset the lack of loan creation by commercial banks, the "Big 4" central banks - Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE - have had no choice but the open the liquidity spigots to the max. This has resulted in a total developed world "Big 4" central bank balance of just under $10 trillion, of which the bulk of asset additions has taken place since the Lehman collapse.

How does this compare to what China has done? As can be seen on the chart below, in just the past 5 years alone, Chinese bank assets (and by implication liabilities) have grown by an astounding $15 trillion, bringing the total to over $24 trillion, as we showed yesterday. In other words, China has expanded its financial balance sheet by 50% more than the assets of all global central banks combined!

And that is how - in a global centrally-planned regime which is where everyone now is, DM or EM - your flood your economy with liquidity. Perhaps the Fed, ECB or BOJ should hire some PBOC consultants to show them how it's really done.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:14 | 5359885 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

The military theory of Mutual Assured Destruction comes to mind for both China and Russia relative to major Central Bank money needs and printing.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:14 | 5359886 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct, nobody prints like the chinese.  They invented paper money people!!!

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:16 | 5359892 NAP
NAP's picture

Thank you, I knew I'd seen that before. 
But, what about the rate of "expansion" this year?  Is it steady, increasing, or decreasing? 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:18 | 5359902 Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:21 | 5359915 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The chinese do not want to hold the world's reserve currency, period.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:38 | 5359980 NAP
NAP's picture

Seems then, per the logic of the original post, no crash imminent.

Damn. 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:36 | 5359953 walküre
walküre's picture

Chinese bought up North America's Westcoast and they're moving East to buy up the rest.

Because our political class is too stupid to see where this is going, will we all be oppressed and exploited by the Chinese on our own turf.

Chinese money is from thin air and as soon as they can, they convert Chinese fiat to tangible assets including properties and land across North America and entire companies in Europe.

At least the Arabs had to sell us their oil for the "wealth".

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:28 | 5359661 arby63
arby63's picture

And the wheel keeps going round and round til it doesn't. I don't know when "doesn't" arrives but at the rate we are fucking everything up for the masses--it is bound to occur.

After all, this electronic money only filters throughout the system because consumers have a method to buy. From what I see on main street today, that has come to a screeching halt. 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:32 | 5359681 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

of course, thats why crooked finger Hank, asked for $700 million on a napkin and then lied about what it would be used for

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:55 | 5359794 homiegot
homiegot's picture

Sometimes the best ideas are written on a napkin.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:43 | 5359736 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Ralph Kramden: " A mere bag of shells"

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 12:55 | 5359784 homiegot
homiegot's picture

Gotta spend money to make money.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:05 | 5359839 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

 

We have all seen it countless times before: visual confirmation that without the Fed's (and all other central banks') liquidity pump, the S&P would be about 70% lower than were it is now.

That sounds high to me, I'd estimate between 25% and 50%.  Big whup.  But it could matter, if the Fed really truly cut QE to zero.  Now we hear the ECB is about to step *up* their QE at least for European targets.  Good for them, the US can stop carrying them.  That lets the US reduce QE by about half, anyway.  This fiddling around and looking for a new equilibrium will govern the next couple of years, I expect.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:09 | 5359850 Lukacko
Lukacko's picture

I can't wait till the financial numbers become so decoupled from 'main street' numbers that they have to start using exponentials.  "Costs central banks 10^8 to keep the shit show from collapsing".  That's when you know the end is nigh and the numbers will be uncontrollable.  Until then this miserable game will continue.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:19 | 5359901 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

When Obama addresses the nation, and informs them that the Fed is out of zeros?

Microprinting technology will come in handy when they need it to print the numerical value of the FRN.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:17 | 5359889 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

pocket change...

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:27 | 5359932 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Digital liquidity feels so good! Do us, baby!

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:27 | 5359933 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

does that mean it takes 200-400 billion of selling to crash it? 

this all works until it stops working. 

not a very long track record (since 2009) to really know how robust this really is.

what about (unintended consequences)? that is when things get really interesting.

my guess that would be the time to declare a world stock market holiday or a world war.  

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:30 | 5359945 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

It will all be right when the US finally gets the level of inflation that Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen, Krugman have been calling for. Inflation will be because of growth and that will cure all that ails the US and European economies.

Let's go inflation... we can then end QE !

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:33 | 5359951 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The base problem is that peole need a better way to save. Debt based currencies require the performance of the debtor and they have been notoriusly fickle. It seems we like to borrow but feel pain when asked to pay. This is a human condition and not one of recent generations.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:42 | 5359993 HomersGhost
HomersGhost's picture

Hi!

My name is Homer and I just made -.375843837363 a day doing nothing but breathing because *unicorns have created a 17 trillion dollar national debt that is paying the chi-coms to buy up the nation.
Thanks older generations for falling for the same bullshit that your parents fell for GOD (Gold, Oil, Drugs), and yet expecting a "retirement"!
Ha!
Don't worry!
Your pensions are secure!
At least till they become worthless due to a global financial panic and collapse.
Is that when we get offered the world war or microchips?
Such an awesome world!
We also can forget about the costs associated with nuclear reactors, poisoned planet, plastic in oceans, DU, ah why go on!
So much to look forward too!

Here is a video made by children.
Look at the view numbers.
http://youtu.be/93ue4ySbSJQ

This is what humans are, collectively.
http://youtu.be/wQOdNY-HdG0

I am at this point all up at reducing the population to .5 percent of its current population by any means necessary, that doesn't destroy the planet however.

*baby boomers for the sensitive(/lisp) among us

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:47 | 5360001 bigbucksr
bigbucksr's picture

i hate to break it to you, but there is more QE coming...this time from the European Fed...they (the central bankers of the world) will find a way....despite the current constitutional constraints that exist among the European member states....  first it was the Bank of China, then the US Federal Reserve, and then the Bank of Japan...next will be the European Fed....

 

sure, the lower house of Germany appears unwilling to print money right now, but I am sure their tune will change when things get cold in December/January when the Russians refuse to pump in their natural gas....

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:46 | 5360005 reader2010
reader2010's picture

 

 

 

"If you are not inside, you are outside."  -  Gordon Gekko, 1987

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:55 | 5360035 HomersGhost
HomersGhost's picture

"If you're not cop, you're little people".

-Batty, Blade runner 1982

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:45 | 5360006 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

All well & good, but...  When does it end?   More importantly, what is the catalyst and where (geographically speaking) does it lie...?   Domestically, or as result of Foreign Policy...?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:58 | 5360048 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Not only when does it end? - Also; What countries if any are not participating in this scheme?

I would be tempted to say the Swiss and the Nordic countries, but they too are now a part of the world wide fiat scheme.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:04 | 5360070 bigbucksr
bigbucksr's picture

when does QE end?

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 13:48 | 5360016 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Last stop for the gravy train is Detroit/Kenya. That is still better than thier plan that ends in ww3.

 Stop making extra gravy for them to swipe. Let them do the real work to keep this shitshow going. Oh thats right, they dont do that real work thing its not fitting for people of such stature. Lies are thier stock and trade.

This fiat means nothing to them other than a means to trade for real assets.

 Now think how it would be if the coin had a real value that could be measured in true value? One dollar per gallon of diesel fuel. Energy has a real value and is used in every sector of the economy. So everybody can see and adjust thier prices in step. On of the biggest issues with fiat is its value is hard to find because its measured againt other fiats. All of them are falling in real perchasing power.

We earthlings need to get rid of fiat once and for ALL. Think of it as a good leash keeping everyone tied to reality. All these lies are papered over with fiat because they can. Take that away. Fiat depends on not ever having to pay anything of any real value.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:03 | 5360064 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Does any country use a coin that has a real measurable value? The answer is no not one.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 15:07 | 5360092 HomersGhost
HomersGhost's picture

BTW, I am looking for investors to create a new airline from west africa to all nations capital cities on the planet.
I will call this company, "Sanglant de Cul (bloody ass) air".
It's french.
Therefore it is exotic and hence, very liberal.
One way tickets mind you.
We can get grants from obama for shiny new 777's.
One way tickets mind you.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:10 | 5360095 jacship
jacship's picture

Just for the DJA

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:22 | 5360143 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

One more thing. You fuckers need to own up.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:24 | 5360154 theyjustcantstop
theyjustcantstop's picture

all this bs about bb's, where was their money spent, on their kids.

i'm sure the younger generation will have their chance to go to war for america, see how your children come out, with all the knowledge you have now.

 

 

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:31 | 5360188 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

I will give you boys credit for one thing. Pretty good at making excuses. Ill give ya that.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:39 | 5360247 gwar5
gwar5's picture

About a Trillion per year. About the size of the budget deficit. About the size of Hillary's ass.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 14:45 | 5360272 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

My kids are riding on my dime.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 15:14 | 5360391 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

I dont realy blame them for all of it. Just thier part of it. Now is the time to deal with it. Sooner would have been better. The thing that ticks me off is even now they are not on the front lines. To comprehend this takes the wisdom of age. I did not have the ability to grasp it until I became mature enough. Well the BB are older than me and I dont see many coming out in favor of an energy backed coin. They seem to like gold more. That has been proven to not work long term. It cant work because gold is finite and saving in real gold keeps us in the same place we are now.

 Real solutions are out there. But all I here is silence from them. Or some bitecoin Bullshit.

 I got news for the BBs. You are all going to die one day. Man up.

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 16:32 | 5360696 fibonacci's claus
fibonacci&#039;s claus's picture

confusious say "banker who fly upside down have big crack up"

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 17:33 | 5360980 tttan
tttan's picture

Yellen and her staff have violated the constitution of the Fed.. They are not allow to buy stock per se or the stock index.. Where in the mandate of the fed is the Fed allowed to buy stock or the stock index. Its dual mandate is to control inflation and employment to the desire target.. Has Yellen given approval directly or indirectly to any internally or outside funds to buy stock index..  Full investigation pse   This is pure and simple collusion and manipulation of the market..  People go to jail for this, but the fed will say this is coordination

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 17:32 | 5360981 tttan
tttan's picture

Yellen and her staff have violated the constitution of the Fed.. They are not allow to buy stock per se or the stock index.. Where in the mandate of the fed is the Fed allowed to buy stock or the stock index. Its dual mandate is to control inflation and employment to the desire target.. Has Yellen given approval directly or indirectly to any internally or outside funds to buy stock index..  Full investigation pse   This is pure and simple collusion and manipulation of the market..  People go to jail for this, but the fed will say this is coordination

Tue, 10/21/2014 - 17:37 | 5360990 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Yep what the hell are they doing bidding againt us for food?

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