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Chain Store Sales Growth Worst Since 2010 (Or Why "The Fed Turned The Market Around")

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If you wondered why "The Fed turned the market around" last week, acting so sensitively aggressive to act with stocks only down modestly from record highs, one glance at the following chart might answer the question. During last week's turbulence, ICSC-Goldman Chain Store Sales growth plunged to a mere 2.1% YoY - the weakest in 5 months and worst for this time of year since 2010.

 

Does this seem like a nation of consumers willing to take up the animal spirits, confident-about-the-future, torch of escape velocity spending from The Fed?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:31 | 5364159 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Yep, Lou, looks like a strong recovery in process.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:42 | 5364225 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Teh FED did not turn the market around, they bent it over and went full porkies on it......

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:48 | 5364256 max2205
max2205's picture

Easy button

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:26 | 5364387 pods
pods's picture

Everything is Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(those with younger kids will get this one)

pods

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:43 | 5364474 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Do grandkids count?  ;-)

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:45 | 5364234 froze25
froze25's picture

We are just one carrington event away from being brought back to balance.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:35 | 5364182 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Next we will need to monetize the consumption in our dreams. Fictional dollars for fictional consumption.....no productivity required.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:35 | 5364183 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

Greenshoots! I see greenshoots!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:45 | 5364233 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

That's just mold...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:56 | 5364276 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

If one turns off all noise making devices and listens carefully they can hear the the fat-lady's siren aria of the petrodollar.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=5Hfe_1Fny-Q#t=26

An American, not US subject.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:37 | 5364186 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

Blame the weather...or Bush...or Ebola....but never say its because NO ONE HAS ANY FUCKING JOBS\MONEY TO SPEND ANYMORE! (or have maxed out their credit).

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:45 | 5364236 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

I have money, just not the kind they except at the retail outlets....yet :)

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 15:43 | 5364692 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Actually they may except it...just not accept it...;)  Sorry, Mom's an English teacher...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:51 | 5364260 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

These guys doing ok: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl

People aren't spending as much $ on COKE & MCD, thank God!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:59 | 5364549 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

They're sitting on their asses staring at a tiny screen all day. Thank God!!!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:36 | 5364189 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nobody has any fucking money. Well..... 1% of the people do.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:41 | 5364217 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

When they buy a new tesla for 100k or some other car for 200k, it is like the 99% buying 5 or 10 cars.  It's all good.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 15:45 | 5364699 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

That'll carry us all along for another year...then what?  And where will they put all those lower class vehicles made by all those livable wages union folk...oh yeah...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:37 | 5364190 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Chains are so old hat.

 

Handcuffs are the new rage!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:38 | 5364200 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

McDonald's down, coke down, chain stores down, yet consumer confidence at all time highs every month.  Don't look behind the curtain.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 17:50 | 5365130 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Consumers are on a fructose, hi-fat, hi-carb high. Wait until their blood sugar returns to normal. Their 'confidence' will fizzle.

 

Middle-class people in the USA have a median of $20,000 saved for retirement, far short of the $250,000 they think they'll need during that time of their lives, a new survey shows.

A third (34%) of working middle-class adults aren't contributing anything to a 401(k), IRA or other retirement savings plan, according to the survey of 1,001 adults, ages 25 to 75, with a median household income of $63,000. The survey was conducted by Harris Poll for Wells Fargo (WFC).

Those who are putting away money for retirement are currently saving a median of $125 every month, the survey shows. About 61% say they're not sacrificing a lot to save for retirement, but 38% are sacrificing to tuck away money for their golden years.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/10/22/retiremen...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:38 | 5364203 starman
starman's picture

"Hope and change" No change? Keep hoping!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:39 | 5364204 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The parasites are waiting for their EBT/SNAP card to be refilled. 

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 15:47 | 5364704 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Yeah, when that doesn't happen, we will have the zombie apocolypse.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 17:28 | 5365033 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

I prefer to call them feces.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 17:40 | 5365095 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

EBT/SNAP Card, Fed Window. What's the difference? BOTH are WELFARE! IMO it is the ULTIMATE sign of a WELFARE QUEEN to stand in line at the FED WINDOW to buy back stock to mask the NON-EARNINGS that are the basis for what's to come......Pussy corporations and their PUSSY leaders...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:40 | 5364208 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Just at the brand new mall yesterday.

Totally dead.  "Zombie paradise."

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:41 | 5364220 Mac Avelli
Mac Avelli's picture

I'm so broke if I had your money I'd throw mine away

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:43 | 5364226 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

These Animal Spirits are headed to the Pet Cemetary.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:43 | 5364228 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Layaway at the dollar store will fix it. 

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:44 | 5364235 order66
order66's picture

Yeah, but thrift store sales are up 5.5% YOY!

Oh.......wait...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 17:34 | 5365054 bmr22
bmr22's picture

Our favorite place to shop!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:45 | 5364241 besnook
besnook's picture

coal(or heating oil) is going to be a popular gift this winter,

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:46 | 5364251 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

ICSC-Goldman Chain Store Sales growth plunged to a mere 2.1% YoY - the weakest in 5 months and worst for this time of year since 2010.

 

especially worrisome since retailers are pulling forward holiday sales ever earlier.

 

and, oh, hello slumping sales -

 

WASHINGTON, October 10, 2014 – Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to see a final surge and set a new monthly record in October as the holiday season approaches, 

 

https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/retail-imports-set-new-record-final...

 

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:47 | 5364252 delivered
delivered's picture

Did my part on the "spirit" front as our purchases of wine were quite extensive last month. As for everything else, well not so much as to be quite honest, we really don't need much more. Funny, this is probably something the Fed and Washington just can't seem to grasp as with an aging population that has to endure (over the last 14 years) a dot.com crash and damage from 9/11, the biggest housing bust on record, followed quickly by another stock market implosion which of course led to wide spread job losses, two things should be very apparent. First, most people are just reaching a point of getting somewhat "stable" again (and I use this term lightly). Second, I believe most people have finally learned a little something about personal finance and are living more closely within their means and aren't buying the BS anymore. As the old saying goes, fool me once shame on you and fool me twice, shame on me (or maybe it should read, fuck me once shame on you, fuck me twice, hell I must really enjoy "dancin for the man").

Also, it was of interest this past week how three of the biggest and well known brands in the US, Coke, McDonalds, and IBM, all delivered crappy news. Each for their own reasons but non the less, all three brands/companies have some real problems/issues to contend with. Didn't break my heart that two of the three are directly associated with Mr. Buffett who seems to may be starting to lose is golden touch and stuck in business models that are so 1980's. But it is clearly driving home an important message that the world is changing very rapidly and so too must businesses and their economic models. For the businesses that adapt, boundless new opportunities await and for those that don't, well they'll most likely become the next Sears/K-Mart, JCP, and RS. 

Now, if the US government and the Fed could simply grasp this simple concept of a changing world and marketplace, I might have a little more confidence in the economy and our fearless leaders. But unfortunately the US is stuck in a 25 to 50 year-old mindset centered around fear, control, and dominance rather than displaying real leadership and direction. As duly noted by the last Ceaser played by the late Richard Harris in Gladiator (Marcus Aurelius), "So much for the Glory of Rome".

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 15:21 | 5364622 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

an artificially supported system coupled with huge percent of the population that doesnt believe "anything" anymore is a prescription for disaster

no rule of law / insider transactions for everything under the sun  / propaganda that is easily deciphered / and chaos as the objective everywhere in the world

means people in general are moving to the sidelines in mass - waiting for the breakpoint - my sense is that people are spooked and know that nothing is real about Obama nor the markets

sit on your hands!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:53 | 5364267 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Last one out, please turn off the lights. Thanks!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:52 | 5364269 nakki
nakki's picture

Just waiting for Black Friday, or um Black Thursday into Friday, oh wtf Black everyday Thanksgiving to Xmas. Solved it for them, and just remember profits don't matter, volume does.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:50 | 5364507 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

Where have you been, it already started...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 15:51 | 5364712 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Right - what we lack in profits, we'll make up in volume!  (beyond retailers, isn't that also all the .com companies save for 1 or 2 at the top of the ponzi?)

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 13:56 | 5364280 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Next the Federal Reserve starts bailing out the chain stores. Own everything. It's their type of mindset.

Fire up those  Fed helicopters full of fiat money. How about some $50,000 checks. An instant injection of immediate inflation.

 

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:02 | 5364296 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Walked into a salvation Army thrift store and they had people.

The people playing the market are driving new Maserati's. The Fed's transfer of saver's money to stock profits.

While the 80% are shopping at second-hand thrift  stores.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:03 | 5364304 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

another late black friday (the 28th) ... thanksgiving anywhere between the 22nd and the 28th ... fewer days between thanksgiving and christmas

 

and last year had a 1 time boost to Black friday weekend sales ... many of the big boxes opened at 6pm thanksgiving rather than "traditional" 12am friday ... this year it will be accounted for ... that is until big boxes start opening at 4pm ...

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:11 | 5364329 Rearranging Dec...
Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

And Yet - the analysts will all blame the weather whether too bad or too good for the obvious predictable  lowsy holiday retail numbers !

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:25 | 5364371 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Chappelle spoke for most of Americans..

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u21lYnGbnUY

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:26 | 5364386 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

2.1% YoY from GS means it was a lot worse - likely -2.1% YoY

 

GS = Feds

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 15:58 | 5364723 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

As criminal as all the fakery of econ stats is, the one funny thing to watch is how after they've faked a number for months and months and months, they do have to kind of bring it back to some semblance of reality (after all the seasonal adjustments and all.)  In other words, they can't completely control all the raw data.  Funny how the adjustments will happen sometime after this upcoming election, and then again in 2016, I'm sure.  Yeah, but when our multi-massive-bubble economy finally bursts for real, there will be no head fakery, or otherwise for that.

But boy have those folks at the BlS determined how to monkey the headline UR around - for YEARS now...as has been outlined here ad nasueum.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:30 | 5364409 inbbyn
inbbyn's picture

"Does this seem like a nation of consumers willing to take up the animal spirits, confident-about-the-future,..."

 

As a matter of fact it does. Chain store sales have been hovering around 2% YOY, consistent with the growth of the economy. In the last 5 month they've been a little higher than that, dropping to the previous level is quite all right. Relax!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:34 | 5364421 franzpick
franzpick's picture

New real estate lingo:

Anchor tenant: the 1st store in the mall that folds and sinks to the bottom.

Chain stores: dead business model stores, closed and surrounded by chains.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:51 | 5364508 HandyCrapper
HandyCrapper's picture

Brick and Mortar stores are dead, online retailing is the future.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:49 | 5364500 HandyCrapper
HandyCrapper's picture

Christmas shopping season is here! Only want a few joints of pot and some good scotch whiskey.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:52 | 5364519 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Another Obola Success story!!

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 14:53 | 5364524 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

It's interesting that succes in Western countries apparently depends on more and more and more and more consumption ... of the same. What a tragical, horrific ideology. 

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 17:17 | 5365003 homebody
homebody's picture

The sheeple can start a reset with just one quarter of only essential spending - most retail profits are as a result of December sales.  Start the dominos falling now and starve the beast.

Wed, 10/22/2014 - 18:04 | 5365188 Ms No
Ms No's picture

Its too bad chain stores aren't plummeting as a result of people developing taste and preferring localism and true diversity in the availability of goods. 

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