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CPI Prints Smallest Possible Increase In September Even As Beef Prices Surge 17% In 2014
After last month's shocking 0.2% drop in CPI, driven almost entirely by plunging gasoline prices, September CPI once again posted a modest rebound, rising 1.7% from a year ago, or 0.1% month over month, just above the 0.0% expectation, with core prices excluding food and energy rising precisely in line with the 0.1% expected.
Broad prices were pushed lower by another month of declining energy prices (Gasoline -1.0%, Fuel Oil -2.1%), however offset by rising food prices which increased by food up 0.3% and Utility bills, rising 1.6% in September - the highest price increase in Utility bills since the 7.5% surge in March.
Then again, one wonders how food inflation is so subdued when the report itself notes that "the index for beef and veal rose 2.0 percent in September and has now risen 16.7 percent since January. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.5 percent, its tenth increase in the last 11 months." But hey: there is always artificial food in a box which is plunging.
Some other items that saw an increase in price included Medical Care Commodities (+0.5%), Shelter (+0.3%) and Transportation services (+0.1%). After dropping -0.2% in August, hedonically and seasonally-adjusted apparel prices were supposedly unchanged in September.
The components:
The detailed breakdown:
Food
The food index rose 0.3 percent in September after increasing 0.2 percent in August. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs continued to rise, increasing 0.7 percent after a 1.5 percent increase in August. The index for beef and veal rose 2.0 percent in September and has now risen 16.7 percent since January. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.5 percent, its tenth increase in the last 11 months. The index for other food at home also rose 0.5 percent in September, with the index for sugar and sweets increasing 1.6 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages, which declined 0.2 percent in August, rose 0.2 percent in September. The fruits and vegetables index also turned up in September, rising 0.1 percent after declining in August. The index for fresh fruits rose 1.3 percent, while the fresh vegetables index fell 1.1 percent. The cereals and bakery products index declined in September, falling 0.4 percent. The food at home index has risen 3.2 percent over the past year. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs has increased 9.4 percent over that span, with the index for beef and veal up 17.8 percent and the pork index up 11.4 percent. The fruits and vegetables index has increased only 0.9 percent over the last 12 months, the index for nonalcoholic beverages has risen 0.2 percent, and the cereals and bakery products index has declined slightly, falling 0.1 percent. The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent in September and has increased 2.7 percent over the last 12 months.
Energy
The energy index fell 0.7 percent in September, its third consecutive decline. The gasoline index, which declined 4.1 percent in August, fell 1.0 percent in September. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 2.1 percent in September.) The electricity index also declined in September, falling 0.7 percent after rising slightly in August. The fuel oil index decreased as well, falling 2.1 percent. In contrast to these declines, the index for natural gas turned up in September, rising 1.6 percent after falling in each of the 4 previous months. The energy index has fallen 0.6 percent over the last 12 months, with its components mixed. The natural gas index has risen 5.8 percent over the span and the electricity index has increased 2.8 percent. However, the gasoline index has declined 3.6 percent and the fuel oil index has fallen 3.2 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in September after being unchanged in August. The shelter index accounted for most of the increase, rising 0.3 percent in September. The rent index increased 0.3 percent and the index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent. The medical care index also advanced in September, increasing 0.2 percent. Within the medical care component, the index for medical care commodities rose 0.5 percent, with the nonprescription drugs index increasing 1.5 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.1 percent, with the index for hospital services advancing 0.3 percent. The indexes for alcoholic beverages and for personal care both rose 0.1 percent in September. Several indexes were unchanged in September, including those for new vehicles, apparel, recreation, and household furnishings and operations. The index for airline fares continued to decline in September, falling 0.5 percent, and the indexes for used cars and trucks and for tobacco both fell 0.1 percent.
And now, we await the several milliseconds it will take the algos to spin this latest data in a favorable light.
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Dammit.....the McDouble is going up again!
After reading this, I think it's mandatory to watch Chris Martenson's latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpNt2JdCcFA
CPI... GDP.... all fuzzy numbers!
What a buncha bull. Mmmmmm... Black Angus bull.
hopefully no one here is naive enough to believe any of the govt stats after QE ends....they will be a perfect mix of growthy BS with a smattering of just enough non-growthiness to make everyone believe that a new QE "could" happen.
Lets not forget about the free shit army that uses food stamps to buy the finest cuts of beef on your dime creating a artifical demand.
I can buy an EBT card at half price if I hang around the ghetto grocer long enough. We got cats from Chicago collecting in both states. And they be sellin' Her'on, too. Can you get ahead on the dole? "YES WE CAN!"
However, don't consider this a condemnation necessarily. It might just come down to survival of the slickest. Kinda like Rand Paul.
Home groan numbers. They can bellow all they want. Beef is costly and chicken is catching up.
my fellow muricans, food is not cheap, never has been in the rest of the world, most of you may not know this. Now that oil is cheaper than it has been in ages why is food so expensive, think about it. It must be oblamas fault, of course it is....riiiight. Did you think red meat is a birthright , like gun ownership? Again think about it, keep on votin' suckaz , garçon, rice and beans for my cracker friends.
The "Feed the Americans without obesitas Foundation" will have a tough winter ahead if beef prices keep going up...
Hahaha... lulz
http://www.newsustainabilityinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/hunger-in-america.jpg
I don't recall: was it Russia, or ourselves, that .gov was going to "crush" with food inflation?
The country with the dictator which uses it's militairy power to supress it's own people!
Keep up man! Everybody knows this stuff!
A couple of good steaks for two costs $20-30 in the supermarket. But there is no inflation.
what's steak and veal? I can't remember the last time we bought red meat, except ground beef, which is who know's what.
I bought boneless skinless chicken breasts last night for $3 a pound.
for thought, the measure of food inflation is only a month to month measurement. its fractional, and tiny looking. But, if you look at the food inflation over the last 3 or 4 years its huge. OUr costs are up $50 a week over the last 4 years (from $150 to 200) that's 2600 a year. Fuck you owebama and the FED.
over here in western Europe, chicken breast costs 9.95€ per kilo in a discount-style supermarket!
that's 5,75 USD per lb!
Ground beef has doubled in price in the last two years around here. I normally stick to deer meat and don't buy too much of it, but I bought some a few days back and about shit my pants when I saw the price.
Fucking Horizon organic milk is $8.29/gal at Safeway in California AND Oregon. It has been steady at $5 on sale, $6 regular price. WTF happened in the last 2 months?
I haven't bought red meat in years. http://meattrapper.com. Free trapping videos: https://www.youtube.com/user/beavertrapper99
just a note, a 33% increase over the 4 years is 7.4% annual inflation for food.
And when I was seven I walked 12 miles to school barefoot cause my ma spent all our money on church goin clothes, which make me a tuff idiot, a duh duh der der .
Deflation, Ebola, Russia, and Isis, all now put to bed... nothing to fear..... QE3 now dead, long live QE4
not so fast on deflation ... currently doing warm up drill ... JV disinflationary game just left the court
Butter is FIVE FUCKING DOLLARS a pound. No inflation here.
now we know why in each dystopian novel and movie the first reaction to butter always is: "whoa! is that real butter!?"
I cant believe its not butter!
for some reason when I buy butter I always think of guns
Home ownership at 18 year lows. Probably unrelated to inflation making housing ridiculously expensive. No inflation here!
Its Capital Growth, actually.
Unadjusted 12 mo.s is solid +1.7% - both all items and ex food/energy - suggesting food/energy are offsetting, or (depending on the weighting) ex energy is likely squarely above 2%, say 2.4%?
Whoever is adjusting this crap.....really needs to stop doing that.
have yet to meet anyone who pays 'seasonally adjusted' prices...
If honesty became the new ebola, we'd all get sick and die.
Government statistics telling government lies.
Amazing blatant, bold face lies. Gas is now $2.70/gal and dropping just in time for Nov. 2nd.
I don't know if you all have seen the news, because of the expecatations of large crowds on November 2nd, they are asking democrats to vote on November 3rd.
I've seen where the dems are busing in thousands of people of color for early voting.
Government statistics telling government lies.
Looks like America has finally become the Soviet Union.
Great job everyone.
Finally becoming? We've been on this path for 40 years.
Nah more like 80 and change, the new deal was the major start of the "progessive" disaster.
I'm tired of reading and talking, anybody in the pittsburgh area want to actually meet up. Maybe organize something, anything, a new political party? Hit me up
I'm on the other side of the state, but I'd like to hear about anything like that too...
TAP - True Americans Party
John Boehner approves this progressive message.
Sounds racist to me. You need to be more diverse and join the Black Panther Party or La Raza.
You two are on the right track. Meaningful change will only come at the local level. D.C. Is gone. Even if someone planned an extremely well organized march on Washington with the expressed goal of evicting the grifters in the White House and Congress, how many of us could just drop everything and join? And wouldn't we be wondering "what will I return to"?. No, this country will be reclaimed inch by inch, mind by mind. Good luck to all of you.
Most people with political aspirations are sociopaths. A normal person usually doesn't want to rule over others.
who said anything about ruling you dingus? I just want an alternative to the corruption i see everyday. If i'm interested enough that i've read about these problems everyday for the past seven years, then i think the time has come to actually have an outlet for these problems.
I think S.T. was just being sarcastic. Dingus? Nice comeback, just the right weight to it. I approve of sarcasm, too. Shit, we're all grownups (taken with a grain of salt, personally speaking).
As happens more often nowadays, I woke up pissed off, maybe due in part to the testosterone flowing head-ways on account of my prone position, but obviously for being witness to the deliberate destruction wreaked upon our society. i told my kid in '99 it was "a new millenium, boy, and it's every man for himself", but if you want to make any effort at change it has to be as Team Depends alludes to, with a "collective" effort at a local level. We "took" Minnesota with the Ron Paul movement in 2012, until the Red team changed the rules. Does that mean we give up? Fuck no! I *never* quit.
Oops. I'm now on the DHS list ... no better place to be.
Now that we have the data out of the way, can I start buying stocks again? Yea!! we're green again!!! #winning
But the Saudis are saving us! Right?...
If oil continues to go down in price so should the cost of "beef", "veal" and everything else in the "manufactured" supply chain! Right???...
Should have used a much smaller font size for this article. Just saying.
"Then again, one wonders how food inflation is so subdued when the report itself notes that "the index for beef and veal rose 2.0 percent in September and has now risen 16.7 percent since January."
Substitution
please tell me i'm not the only one who scours the side of the road on the way to work ... with a pitchfork in the back
Meanwhile gas prices are down less than 1 % from November of 2013, and we have energy exerting all this downward pressure?
Is the CPI a one month number annualized? Or the change in prices from the same periond 12 months ago?
Either way, it's BS.
Mombo jumbo. Most unhealthy market ever.
While prices are high, I think it is mostly because incomes are stagnant. I can still find butter at $4/lb and maybe cheaper if on sale.
Steaks generally go for about $7-8/lb. I prefer ribeye, so I wait till I find a sale or a price around $7/lb. Thus I can get two steaks for under $15. Less desirable steaks obviously go for less.
You have to shop around. Butter can be frozen, so buy it when it is cheap.
Anyway, we just had bear season, so I got that. Now deer season is coming up and I'll have that. I only wish we had elk and buffalo in my area to hunt.
One deer in the freezer so far. I hope to get two more before the season ends and that should be plenty.
+1 Duck season opens this weekend (IL/midwest). Already have a freezer full of them ever-so-tasty doves. A bunch of rabbits and a few pheasant (fuck the coyotes). Haven't gone deer hunting yet, but that's next. Mmmm... Shove that straight up your CPI.
Wisconsin (at least the Mississippi) opened last Saturday. Mostly wood ducks, teal... big mallards will be here shortly. Not a huge fan of duck, but its better then starving. Pheasant is awesome (for eating). They are stocked heavily in areas of Wisconsin. They are beautiful when you see them walking along country roads in winter (the males). Gun deer opens in a few weeks. I think deer kill numbers will be down again going by what i'm hearing from bowhunters (not a lot of does it would seem).
The problem with wild game, is you need access to quality land or you are going to have a rough time filling the freezer, unless you get lucky or get in early.
It's just before the election. There's an extra effort to make sure the CPI appears low and gasoline is lowered.
Where does all this beef go - not Mac Don's.
Speaking of hot beef, how about that shirtless Putin.
CPI = obama admin excrement, like evreything else that comes out of this admin and obola... lies and distorition... political spin
It is hard to understand why beef prices have gone up so much despite the copious supply of bull coming fom the government and the press.
CPI 12 months year over year
may ... 2.1%
june ... 2.1%
july ... 2.0%
august ... 1.7%
september ... 1.7%
october .... ???
By artificial food in a box, did you mean the iPads were supposed to be eating?
Beef prices and those clever "eat mor chikin" cow ads are destroying the joys of the grill. War on beef. What have we come to?
"CPI = Lies, Damn Lies and Nothing But Lies"
Remember, we're in DEflation, not inflation. Prices are actually dropping. Also, the tobacco ration has INcreased to 7 grams per week!
fruits and veges are seasonal and we're in peak season for most. Thus, the low prices. In a couple months, we'll be importing these same veges and fruits, and paying "typical" prices for thsm. In other words, the cost of fruits and veges is about to increase.
regarding beef: the price of beef is correlated with the price of grain, specifically corn, particularly in drier years. A bit more than 40 percent of US corn is cattle feed, and another 35 percent is converted into ethanol (about 20 percent of the ethanol byproduct is returned to cattle as feed).
One reason for the jump in prices is ... Warren Buffet. Seriously. The upper/great plains are sitting on their 2013 grains because they cannot afford to ship them out. Shipping is usually done by rail. The cost of a container on rail went from about 300 to 5000 dollars because oil has monopolized the rail industry up there.
I just bought 10 lbs. of Boston butt (shoulder cut) for $2.69 lb. that I turned into delicious pulled pork to freeze.
I asked the butcher why so cheap when everything else is so expensive and he said, "If you can't slap it in a frypan or grill it , nobody wants it and we practically give it away. People nowadays don't know how, or care, to cook."
Makes sense to me. Thank you lazy, dumb people.
I vacuum seal some into hockey puck size for sandwiches and larger sizes for spaghetti sauces and Chinese pork dumplings ect.
Drop one of those puck bags in boiling water, and by the time you spoon up some slaw and grab a sour dill and slice a homemade Kaiser roll, you're ready to live large and eat like a king.
Keeps me busy and away from my French and Italian pastry experiments. I almost wish I hadn't learned how easy it is to to make your own mozzarella, ricotta and marscapone cheese. If you make it, you gotta use it.
"Drop the cannolis and take the gun."
One more thing -- the price of beef is high (even though the price of corn is low) because there was a drought in 2012. It takes a couple years to raise young animals to maturity. Thus, the high beef prices.
QE will not and cannot end without serious repercussions. Mainly a freefall in stocks. This will happen eventually but obviously they can put it off with the debasement. Question is... how long. The CPI as with all government stats, like the FRN, isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
The upcoming election, like all previous elections, is only going to bring more pain and suffering foreign and domestic. As fascism embeds itself more and more, America will look to war as the answer, only this time it may not turn out well for them.
The jewell of the Nile America thinks, is Russia. All those plump resources for the picking. Problem is Russia isn't playing and is arming up as fast as possible. Which means America will have to figure a pretense for war soon (Gulf of Tonkin) or it will be impossible rather than improbable for a positive outcome.
Will Americans go along. From what I see it''s a resounding yes. They will do anything to continue the freebies. The next question is will a financial tsunami come first or war. I think they will be at the same time. So does the government hence their arming up the federal and local police forces.
America is hopelessly broke and can do nothing for the advancement of civilization at this point. Any wealth left is being diverted to military and war production. America has to depend on "the enemy" to put it's astronauts in space. Most of the R&D for peaceful purposes are now in China and Russia,,, the Brics. Most civil type production factories and the skills required are gone and we're told "never to return". The debt on and off the books can never be paid. Our children are being trained, not educated. The education facilities in the u.s are still good, but are going downhill fast as computers are taking the place of classrooms. One can buy the answers to most tests so what appears to be the case isn't.Politically expedient rather then excelling is the new standard.
For americans it's not hope and dreams, it's illusions of grandeur as they refuse to take a realistic view of themselves and insist on a past reputation that no longer exists.The psychologists say one has to admit their problems before any healing can take place. The same is true for nations. Only by looking at ourselves objectively can we begin the process of healing. This "exceptional" view we hold ourselves to will only bring destruction and ruin.
Why don't they include tickets from these crooked thieving cops? Does anyone know ANYONE besides a cop and his family that isn't receiving tickets for all kinds of bullshit from all these fucking cops every fucking month. Go to traffic court in Wallkill NY, it's got literally HUNDREDS and hundreds of people. They are raking in the money as they build new police stations and town halls and judges are driving BMW's and cops are putting built in swimming pools in their backyards. But none of THEM, thier wives, husbands or kids are getting any of these constant tickets for bullshit. It shoud be included in the CPI.
Have another Woodstock and let the out of towners finance Govt. for the next 5 years.
There's always a dopey kid who will find the money to produce a "sure-fire moneymaker".
When is it time to start revolting? Begin by burning down the headquarters of the Federal Reserve. Then the NSA. Then Monsanto, Then all the banks. Then fire at will.
Sounds like a good plan to me.
you can always eat less and lenghthen your life span.