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Saxobank CIO Warns "Another Shock Drop Is Coming.. And It's Coming Soon"
Saxo Bank's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen is predicting another 'shock drop' in the markets within a few weeks. With debt and low inflation continuing to create a nervous atmosphere behind most markets, Steen argues that we will hit fresh lows in mid-November. Steen takes the view that central bank policy is creating a 'fantasy land' for investors and he points out that the recent 'day dive' in markets was a closer reflection of reality. Steen outlines his suggestions for trading ahead of another dip in mid November with targets for the S&P 500 around 1810 and the Dax at 8000 - 7800. Be long fixed income as it is "a free put on the equity market.. and the economic cycle is not yet ready to adapt to a rising interest rate."
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He better watch his mouth or else he may get hit by a snow plow as his private jet is taking off the runway.
I was thinking that within a few weeks SaxoBank will be under inverstigation for some kind of market rigging. That guy is not a team player for the TPTB. will be labeled a renegade, malcontent or anything other than a realist.
Monday October 27th... Things that make you go hmm.....
thanks for the tip Steen and ZH ... this is great, even a little guy like me can make money .... got to go place an order
Might of top-ticked the market this morning. Always got screwed before. We will see.......
Here's is a good explanation as only Mike Maloney can simply explain, of the divergence that is already occuring. For those awake and hanging at places like ZH, you already know this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5JcmpN2mrA
Hedge Accordingly!
DaddyO
Alright everybody, put your tinfoil hats on, this is probably the illumanti STFP wink..
he may well have Armstrong's blessing..
"The resistance in the Dow Jones Industrial Index for today stands in the mid 16700 zone on a technical basis. Targets in time for this week were Wed and Friday with the latter being the main target. ONLY a closing back above 17010 would signal that the low is in place for a broader term. This week should produce a reaction high. A closing on Friday at least below 16880 will keep the market in check. A closing BELOW 16660 will signal that a drop back into the week of Nov 3rd is possible with a new low."
Technically the technicals are technically irrelevant.
Silver bitchez
To be followed by a confident rush to new highs after 3 tweets calm the "markets" once again.
"Print more fiat paper to inflate food, energy and housing prices in order to help the poor & down trodden, and do it with much fervor!"
--Paul "When Aliens Attack" Krugman, PhD
Get a shave, you hippy!
I'm just gonna post this to get it out of my head.
Homer Simpson as Mr Plow
http://youtu.be/kVWdf1Ky2bI
Whether the market sells off or not, this guy might be right at some point due to broken clock syndrome. He's been saying this forever so at some point he may be right and he'll tell everyone "I told you so". That's the thing about predictions, no one remembers when you're wrong, yet everyone remembers when you're right.
LOL. People do try hard to help you remember when they have been right.
How true. Look at all the BULLTARDS who screamed, BUY BUY BUY in 2007-2009....
From a st technical standpoint, it is fairly obvious that the market is being gunned right in here more than usual. Maybe some guys in Belgium.
What a fucking douche, going out ruining the party atmosphere. Fuck Jakobsen, where have you been? The S&P's going up like 3%/day, at this rate it will be at like 6000 by Christmas! And you go and piss on everybody's cornflakes with your bullshit 'its not sustainable, debts are out of control, the derivative market is unstable' doom and gloom bullshit.
You said it yourself for fucks sake - central banks are creating a fantasy land for investors. Since when does a fucking fantasy land include 'market crashes'. You must not get invited to many parties buddy. You need to hook up with some Wall Street insiders who can introduce to the joys of hookers and blow, and free money.
All eyes on Yellen
FOMC meets next tues/wed ... with statement wed afternoon.
just don't see market falling till statement out.
QE will end ... but how much "loving" does Yellen put on low rates ... market looking for nothing less than From Here to Eternity ... sorta kidding, but if she mentions rate rise H1 2015 + QE end = Lookout Below
The Ponzi Munchkin has never said anything hawkish in her life.
The closest she came was at her very first press conference when she made the "rates will rise 6 months after QE ends" flub. The markets had a hissy fit, and at her very next appearance, she completely walked it back and said the Fed would keep doing QE as long as needed, and wouldn't have date deadlines.
Every month in the days before the Fed meets, the lamestream media runs with "Fears of Hawkish Fed" headlines, with a picture of that ugly haint. The markets go down and then SURPRISE-SURPRISE, the Keynesians stick to the dove script and the markets rally.
Rinse and repeat.
Steen makes a good. Since 2008 the FED has indoctrianted a whole new generation of traders and market participants who only know one way, taking cues from FED stimulus announcements. Anyone who started trading after 2008 perceives this as normal. If the FED ever stops interfering its gonna ba new learning curve for this new generation.
I guess I never looked at it that way. A whole new generation of Pinko Commie Fascist traders masquerading as 'Investors'. Who would have thunk?
Good.
oh please - based on what specifically?
Some of these clowns just like to heaer themselves talk.
Stockman had, imho, a great one recently:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/now-comes-the-specter-of-deflation...
Rates will go up - it's jut a matter of putting fears of deflation out there in the water, and that will have to wait until after the holidays, by which is meant Christmas shopping...
QE/ZIRP disinflationary ... deflationary when asset bubbles bubbles (we're at onset)
Fed intereference in the economy by monetizing the debt is disinflationary... printing new money is of course what inflation is, better thought about as purchasing power per unit of currency.
Asset Deflation naturally follows any bubble, sure.
I think you have to think in term of purchasing power, not prices as such.
That is - any central bank interference that relies on eroding purchasing power to help "the economy" is nothing more than a temporary fix of the inevitable collapse of the currency, one which is absolutely a transfer of relative wealth from labor to capital, and from workers to banks and the wealthy.
This could use editing, but I'm watching CNN scare Canadians into worrying about 15,000 guys with AKs on the other side of the world.
What tactical advantage would "ISIS" obtain? They may be crazy and vile - but they aren't stupid and primarily about 'symbolic' attacks - are they??
Wow all the way back to 1810. Still seems rich to me. The S&P is trading like a penny stock. Healthy "market" indeed.
Is the sky falling? Oh, just another Bankster that's been thrown off a roof.
Russia's Rosneft asks for over $48 billion from state wealth fund - Finance Minister
There's never a good time for them to give up power
Well the recent "shock drop" was nothing more than Central banks trying to convince you that markets are "real".
His quote: "buy fixed income". (Meaning we gotta dump our bond longs to someone)
the bond bubble burst might be closer then we think,
Me?, I just buy "food" futures, the grain complex (especially corn and soymeal) at this prices is a gift from the trading gods.
You've not been paying attention. EVERY SINGLE US banker has been saying SELL your bonds, rates will rise. In other words, they want to buy your bonds, not vic versa.
Banks have been the biggest buyers of Treasuries.
This guy is saying the opposite.
I appreciate your reply on my post but, READ IT AGAIN, the guy is saying "buy bonds", that's what I posted.
bug lulz
12-sigma move in the bond market last week
http://www.goldsqueeze.com/technical-analysis/what-exactly-happened-in-t...
1810 isn't much of a prediction.
When the black swan strikes it will go a lot lower.
Remember the May plunge of 150pts in a couple of hours? That fat finger was an aglo programmed to sell, sell, sell. No cost to them. Made billions on the swing down and up. (Tisk,tisk loose accounting-Corzine.. tisk tisk bad prg..) NO jail time. NO fines.
Why will it stop this time? When an avalanche starts the snow falls all the way down the mountain.
Can't help but think that after the mid-terms the PPT will let things go (for a while). The Republicans will then (most likely) have a shared hand on the economic levers and share of responsiblity for the outcomes.
This can't take too long as the economy won't have much hang time without stimulus.
nice thoughts
setting aside my gut saying we're at doorstep of next recession
i'm sure "they" have done the calculus ... no way in heck can they keep it afloat till 2016 election ... better to let it fall sooner rather than later ... 2015 becomes "clean up the mess" year ... and i think O worrying about his legacy ... jailing a few banksters / taking down (or breaking up) a few TBTFs would certainly be welcomed by many ... and pave the path for D candidate for POTUS (QE4 H2 2015 or early 2016 will ensure markets rising again come election)
Agree. I think it is a small piece of a big puzzle, namely:
The Keynesians know QE has not worked, and the market is poised to crash.
Absent a black swan or someone to blame, the Fed cannot allow this to happen. This would be admitting to a $4Trillion mistake.
I believe the Fed secretly prays every night for a black swan, so they can come out of a crash pointing the finger elsewhere.
Everything the Keynesians have done has been to help Obola (introducing QE3 just before 2012 elections).
If the republicans take the Senate, and therefore control all of Congress, then absent a black swan, the Keynesians know they can't keep spinning the plates until after the 2016 elections. Better to let it crash in late 2014 - early 2015 and let the media rewrite history and blame it all on the republicans.
I actually think this forecast is spot on. The Jawboning rally is nearing an end as we speak--we've went from very oversold to slightly overbought in less than a week's time, which is precisely what we need to get back on the bearish side. I agree that once the market begins to make new lows, the Central Banks will come back into the picture, but this time with REAL action, which will probably put a bid back into everything from commodities/pm to equities to fixed income. This rally will have legs but fail at/below previous market highs around the 1st half of next year as the REAL economy continues to sink, and as he says "US enters a recession". In Q2 2015 we begin to tank, if not in nominal terms, than in real terms. This fits well with my belief that we are currently around the fall 2007 period...
The take away: Cash, precious metals, and long term US bonds look very good from here through the beginning of next year. Get out of bonds by early next year, after new QE priced in, and real rates probably go negative. Stay long cash and particularly precious metals. Obtain small short positions in equities for exposure to the downside SOON--this looks like a good bet within a week or so, UNTIL CB's come back out with cooridinated action and we reattain oversold conditions...Subsequently ride the reflation trade in US equities by buying a small position in SP ETF through Q1, then quickly exit all long US equity positions...and then hang on for a scary ride with small US equity short exposure and a large cash and precious metal position!
This is probably one of the most balanced and on point recommendations I have seen here on the hedge. Complete with TIMEFRAMES. Thanks for posting.
But if we know suckers are going to buy markets... equities, PMs, commodities...
We can sell high and short.
Like institutional investors or big funds... they have little choices. And now foreign CBs in US Treasuries.
It all looks like fascism and the smart boys will crash it anyway.
So why should Yellen & her school boys do it... other than as a ruse to buy time for a better solution or to inflate out of it.
Can't fight the Trend. I guess the Keynesians are in charge.
It is not exactly like the Great Depression, but close enough. Maybe the money is flowing to a new Empire in Australia or Canada... Lots of Mining.
my view is that he's spot on!
The Dow Nasdaq and S&P all retraced to a 61.8% level, and if close down tonight likely to see the top of the retracement.
Also gap closed on the way down,
Takes guts from a banker to have a negative view, good on him!
saxobank...! seriously? Who cares what he thinks? Get real. rates arent rising for a LONG time. I dont care what guidance they are giving. We are inflating our way out of this problem....sell the Dollar but you can stay long stocks and bonds.
He's probably right. What he doesn't tell is dax at 9300-9550 previously. Shorting the dip now will end bad.
Steen: Now that you have paid the $29.95 for the Gartman & Stolper newletter, how short are you guys?
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