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"Real" Stock Volatility In October Highest Since Lehman
While VIX pumped-and-dumped (in a manner never seen before in its history), 'real' volatility of the day to day moves across the major stock indices remains extremely elevated. For the Nasdaq and Dow Transports, the average true range over the last few weeks is the highest since the post-Lehman collapse...
The Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000 are back at the highest average true range since the US downgrade in Summaer 2011..
Charts: Bloomberg
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Reminder: The Average True Range is a measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder in his book: New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
The true range indicator is the greatest of the following:
-current high less the current low.
-the absolute value of the current high less the previous close.
-the absolute value of the current low less the previous close.
Simply put, a stock experiencing a high level of volatility will have a higher ATR, and a low volatility stock will have a lower ATR.
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"Don't panic, I've got your back" - B. Dudley
They gots all our backs.
No wonder the vol, eh?
Just wait till more of this breaks, regardless of true or not.
Anybody but me notice the almost complete silence on the topic last few days.
Sorta like been told to STFU, Don't Panic?
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anyone else notice the mini flash-crash at 2:52 today?
Yeah, I did. it's the heavy hitters unloading their portfolios. they sell the rallies to get good prices.
Should we pay any attention to the VIX at this point? Or is just too fake?
Left-wing website: WE'RE the problem, not Islam! http://tinyurl.com/mjghq4z
There's no reason to even know what VIX is. just look at the price charts and be a student of markets.
Sold short 2XESZ4 @1945 today. $100/pt. short the S&P500. new position.
w/ an SAT of 800 i'd really expect more than this from you.
the whole reason for dark pools was so that outsiders couldn't see who was on the other side of the trade.
...and here you go doing the opposite, putting yourself out there ...begging to get Gartman-ized.
the cherry on top is, of course, that apparently you haven't learned from what's happened to shorts over the past 6 years.
good luck anyway.
free-range stock taste better?
Not exactly a news anouncement. The definition of volatility is it goes up and down a lot; I believe we have all noticed that the stawk market has been jumping up and down like a jumping bean.
Could be the last tremblings before the stock market collapses. Did anyone notice the Casey Research alert that a market crash is imminent?
Let's see then.
This market is a fucking joke! It has nothing to do with the economy.
it will make the next downturn worse
high stock market allows congress to do nothing
in the "old" days a weak stock market would force congress to Do Something (good for only a minor kick of can ... but remember spring of 2008 tax refunds to everyone? ... $150 billion mailed out) ... now we'll go over the cliff without a net
did you just find that out?
We have a numerical representation of the economy (the market) that completely misrepresents it. When we're talking of the market crash, we're expecting the representation to fall in line with reality, even though it is obvious and clear that with every passing day the disconnect is growing larger.
We've had abysmal news from mega-corporation, papered over by share buybacks, liquidity injections, lies and false optimism about things happening long term. Yet nothing triggered a meaningful correction in numerical representation of the economy.
So, is there any point waiting even?
When the economy crashes completely, it'll be the real economy that will go down, quite possibly without the market ever reflecting it. Kind of like a socialist/communist deficit catching everyone off guard by the price fixing. You have artifficially low pricetags that do not reflect changes in supply and demand all up to the point where supply completely vanishes. All of the sudden, the store shelves are empty, decorated by the very same "affordable" price tags. No change in the numerical market. All the change in the actual economy.
For something like that to occur though, people have to have money in excess of product. What we have is quite the opposite - excess of debt against an abundance of assets... someone else's assets to which we have no legal claim.
A collapse under such system means more of what we already have. It's not the DJIA or S&P falling, but simply people being laid off, getting evicted, going to jail, while the market continues waltzing on like nobody's business.
When the Fed playing chess wtih itself there is no difference between winning and losing. Which way the markets move - in the grand scheme it doesn't matter. That's not what's crashing. What's coming down is reality itself. Our reality, from which the bankers intend to remain shielded by keeping us fixated on the daily lottery number known as the DOW.
So what ? Why did you believe any such story in the first place? Of course it has nothing to do with the economy.
I guess not everybody got the QE4, QE5, QE6, QE7, QE8, QE9 etc etc memo?
QE kaput ... till next recession
Charts remind me of the dotcom crash, when NASDAQ snapped back 10% in one day and everyone thought the bullmarket is still intact.
Of course. or like any market in history. study the history of markets.
Ah yes, the ATR. Once upon a time, it used to be a great way to set stops.
Used to.
Stop loss orders are to limit your losses in a position; they are set according to how much you want to risk on the position they have nothing to do with ATR whatever that is.
Last POMO for QE is this coming monday-tuesday. That means Wednesday will be a laugh riot.