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The Housing Recovery Has Been Canceled Due To Data Revisions
Last month, when, with great amusement, we reported that "New Home Sales Explode Higher Thanks To... Record High Average New Home Prices?", we mocked the latest batch of bullshit data released by the US department of truth as follows:
New Home Sales rose a magnificent (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) 18% in August - the biggest monthly rise since January 1992 albeit with a 16.3 90% confidence interval, meaning the final number may well be +1.7%. At 504k, new home sales are back at May 2008 levels (though obviously massively below the 1.4 million homes sold at the peak in 2005). As a reminder, May's 504K new home sales print was later revised later to 458K. But even more stunning, new home sales in The West rose a mind-numbing 50% in August (and up 84.4% YoY - nearly double).
Well, it is now a month later, and here come the revisions: first, that 50% surge in the West was revised... 30K lower. But to get a sense of just how bad the revision was, here is the old, pre-revision data, and the "data" following the latest revision.
In short: the euphoric, consensus-beating data for every single month since May has been revised lower, by on average 6% and as much as 9%. Perhaps finally people will realize that there is only one number that matters in the Census bureau's monthly new home sales report: the ±15.7 90% confidence interval. Well, people maybe, but not algos, who only care about one thing: whether the data beat or missed.
Now we wonder: will all those market surges over the past 4 months which were based on erroneous headline data, all be revised lower? Sarcasm off.
Oh, and as for that record new home price reported last month, which magically also resulted in what the US government wanted everyone to believe was a surge in buying... well, see for yourselves:
So to summarize: the latest "housing recovery" has been indefinitely postponed due to data revisions.
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bullish
Taking advantage of Ebola scare, every financial data will be revised.
ctl prt time in 3, 2, ....
new ath on the s&p is in the bag bitchez
They evidently didn't cook the numbers long enough, still tough and chewy....
All government data is bullish. Their own retarded desire to stay in power and "project power" will lead us all into the abyss of Hell before long.
Here is your proof that all/any number from the Govt is a big time lie
Learn from it
it is all an illusion and some of us are very tired of this game
fyi.... the NY Post has been onto the Census bureau numbers fraud for some time.
http://nypost.com/2014/10/22/census-workers-manipulated-economic-data-new-whistleblower/
Stop playing.
North American Humans born after 1981 are beginning to stop playing. Hence the housing revisions.
bull-shit
Obama:EBOLA IS A “TRIAL RUN” FOR A DEADLIER AIRBORNE DISEASE:
http://youtu.be/h7kkyE_U4MA
Deadlier disease than Obola which is airborne....no such thing exists that we know of so Obola must be talking about something govt made.
Air Force One will now be known as "OgolfaBola One".
All USA data - total BS
i bet this numbers is also a fraud
Probably set up for the Fed to trot out next week as a reason to not end QE.....'Nope sorry, even with our best intentions we'll have to keep QE going a bit due to these 'unforeseen new developments'
They are still doing QE, but they are not talking about it, but does it matter?
No, QE is a specific thing. We are now in the Voldemort economy and so must not be named.
I agree. There is no relationship between the financial news and financial reality.
Yes I had a moment where I thought maybe latent "truthfulness" might be appearing..... then I snapped out of it....
It wouldn't be history without revisionist history.
Right, the algos only care about 'beat' or 'miss'....if its a beat then stawks get pumped way up, if its a miss then stawks get pumped WAY WAY up.
All Cash investors. Raising rents near you.
The cash presented is financed outside normal channels. When the Fed combined with the Fed (government) and offered hedge funds portfolios of vacant homes at irresistable terms, they accepted the generous offer. The money is still borrowed, but with guarantees upstream, eliminating the need of the house for collateral.
If the next generation wants to provide me with free health care, a substantial payment to ease my retirement, AND rent a house from me rather than build up assets for their own eventual fade... well, I keep warning them that they are making a big mistake but I didn't listen to the old guys either.
At least I tried to give them the straight story. Nobody forced them to adopt the religion of Liberalism and they are free to become heretics at any time.
When the actual collapse does happen, you know who will be blamed....scoundrels on ZH with bad attitudes, folks who just wouldn't straighten up and fly right.
as a reminder new home "sales" are not necessarily sales
a "sale" is considered a sale when contract is signed (you know, wander into a housing development's sales model on weekend... and cute girl smiles/talks you into signing contract) ... still need to make it thru closing ... an entirely different story
Lol ... to state the process a little more accurately:
Price is chosen and then the Algos make it happen. I think your article had it reversed.
Everything is smoke and mirrors in an attempt to get confidence up to go spend.
Spend what? Dust bunnies from behind the Ikea futon I guess.
Spend your savings. These people are not stupid, just greedy. The current low interest environment discourages savings and encourages spending. This is why we have the current TV ads about the joys of saving. Get ahead of the curve, stop working and spend down your savings, but don't take on more debt.
I never understood how people could ever think that housing prices would always go up.
Arguably, it is the single greatest financial fallacy of our time... along with the "independence" of .gov regulatory bodies and the "reliability" of ratings agencies.
I hope everyone who invested heavily in apartment buildings and flipping homes has to suck a giant bag of dicks come spring... I really do....
and what about stock markets that always have to go up? and banking systems that always have to grow? this shit will all be abolished, and sooner rather than later
Pattern...? If you 'Lie' forward, the 'sound-bite' addicted audience's attention span is, what - about 48 hours? So pad that by 30 - 45 days, and it's like the original Lie was never told... They may not be banking on this per se, but that is the rear-view mirror way this official Bullshit seems to be working - All of it, from every official corner of officialdom...
But the news stories are telling me that new home sales are at a six-year high.
That's bullish, right?
Off Topic, but, I humbly submit, many Hedgers will be interested:
Canada’s Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau, the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, has, unlike his father, warmed up to the United States, Wall Street, and the cause of globalization. Justin Trudeau and Aecio Neves are prime examples of how the CIA eagle will take under its wings the progeny of leftist icons to achieve its goals.
Ok, here is the deal...unlimited hookers and blow...sign here.
Makes you wonder who's keeping an eye on the CIA.
And who is controlling the most violent factions thereof these days.
Too many cons and angles. Just watching from the sidelines.
I'm not sure there are any sidelines anymore. As a wise man once told me - 'the front line is everywhere.'
Rothschilds Target Brazil’s Central Bankand hoo knows what true price of new home sale?
builder can throw in a lot of freebies ... granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, hot tub, whatever to close sale
When do the Feds need to decide on the next round of QE?
More .gov "counting their chickens before they hatch" economics.
This pig of a market, is going to chop sideways until the elections are over...
September 2012 employment numbers come to mind...
They must be using common core math
AM radio is Chock-Full of 'flip-house' advertisement spots, and has been for long about 1.5 years now, but the frequency of the ads has ramped over the past (6) months. If we dust off our memory caps, there are more than a few similarities to 2006/2007.
Are they flipping homes with or without squaters?
It is simple. The people who provide the numbers want it to look good so they can keep their jobs and benefits, probably very nice packages as compared to what is out there.
They will do anything to keep their status, so will the recipients of EBT and all the other .gov handouts which affect over 50% of the voters. To keep everyone in line they produce biolical weaopns, create terrorists and scare everyone into compliance.
People are scared they will lose lives and or homes or what little 'quality' of life their dollars will buy them.
There are only two types of people government or corporations cannot push around, billionaires and those who have nothing else to lose.
This just in from the Obama administration: It's Bush's fault and you are a racist.
Snow, snow, snow, can't anyone find snow in August?
bad numbers make the market go up because it means more QE!!!!! YEAAAAAAAA!!!!
/sarc
bad numbers make the market go up because it means more QE!!!!! YEAAAAAAAA!!!!
/sarc
Post-modernists Progressives (ie, every gov't employee above GS-9, since Progressives believe gov't experts [double-ie, Progressives in gov't] should rule us) believe in the infinite mutability of human nature: "Money is a culture. It is nothing but a global norm that constitutes a culture controlling the minds and lives of the people on this planet. It is nothing that is necessary because of our human nature. Money, trading, ownership and property are nothing but norms that can be changed. They constitute nothing more than a mindset, a way of thinking.".
Ergo, gov't statisticians are trying to change human nature by publishing stats that lead us to terminal Progressivism. iow, not only is human nature infinitely malleable, but our economy is, too.
Thank God, you deity of choice, or none of the above, when Progressivism fails, the disconnect between their artificial reality (eg, Michael Brown was assassinated) and real reality (eg, Michael Brown was a thug who earned his death) becames pronounced enough to impact even low information voters (ie, everyone who votes Democratic)
But I thought "NOW!" was the best time "EVER" to buy a house ... same as last year ... and the year before that ... and the year before that ... and so on and so forth ....
@Son of Loki
That's why real estate agents have to go get seasonal jobs at department stores this month.
anyone that believes any economic figures whatsoever before the November election is a damn fool
I could never understand this yardstick for guaging economic health, especially after the Boomers peaked. For example, 30% of all real estate in the Cleveland area, was vacant in 2009, why were people still building more? Why build new housing and retail space, when there isn't any demand or need for it? Seriously? If there is no capital flowing, and people are living solely on their credit cards, how are they going to purchase a home? Something is broken, and it isn't the ability to build more homes...
Not only that, the monthly mortgage rates are completely out of touch compared to the average joe's monthly incomes.
The median salary is $28,000 a year, but yet all of these new houses going up are from "the low 300s". It's total la la land out there.
I remember how affordable housing was in the mid to late 1990s, and this new normal is totally out of whack.
Mortgage interest rates have been manipulated down to near record lows. This shows the Fed is making another run at feeding a housing bubble. Two things from the Fed prove this. Number 1, they are pushing for lower standards to obtain a mortgage, and they have manipulated mortgage interest rate down to the 3.0% range. While they talk about lending standards, behind closed doors they are pushing hard for lower down payments, larger loans, and less credit worthy borrowers being qualified. The lesson is clear, Sub Prime was the Feds preferred policy.
"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. The great and powerful Oz in in control."
what is a 'housing recovery'?
when home prices go up?
or
when homes are affordable?
or
when prices go down?
I think we had a brief recovery in 2009/2010 and now back to a bad housing market...at least viewed from the perspective of and economy efficiently allocating resources and the ability for the economy's members to afford to buy and own a home.
I think the best indicator might be if there are actually mortgage writers servicing mortgages, unless we have people buying houses cash.
oh.. that opens another nest of worms eh?- at no level can this economy be appraised in light of traditional GAAP metrics, that might tip a hand.