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Russell Napier Asks: "What Evidence Is There That QE Works?"
From Russell Napier of ERIC
Easy’s Getting Harder Every Day
The job of the investor is to answer that impossible question, ‘ What is the correct valuation for this financial instrument?’ There is almost never a right answer to this question, but there are, of course, many wrong ones. Eliminating wrong answers, especially when valuing an investment which already discounts the future, is an important strategy in coming up with better answers than the competition.
So there is really good news for investors: the current, prevalent answer to the question, ‘What is the correct valuation for this financial instrument?’ is clearly wrong. It is demonstrably wrong because the answer is ‘Whatever the central bankers say is the correct value’. It is clearly wrong because it has never been true in the past. It was recognised as clearly the wrong answer as early as 1810 in the words of the so-called ‘ Bullion Committee’-
‘The most detailed knowledge of the actual trade of a country, combined with the profound Science in all the principles of Money and circulation, would not enable any man or set of men to adjust, and keep always adjusted, the right proportion of circulating medium in a country to the wants of trade.’
Report of the Select Committee of the House of Commons 1810
The ‘Bullion Committee’ of 1810 realised the virtual impossibility of the United Kingdom remaining off the gold standard when the war with the French had concluded. It realised a simple truth: that no ‘man or set of men’ could provide the appropriate amount of money for an economy. And thus it has been true ever since that central bankers, when freed from any form of monetary anchor, have created the wrong amount of money. All we have to decide is which side of wrong are they on --- too much or too little? Market movements now clearly indicate that the answer is too little.
The world is beginning to see that central bank action is insufficient to overwhelm the forces of deflation. The reported deflation of 2009 lasted only briefly. The consensus view is that it was defeated by developed world central bankers flooding the world with money.
The consensus view is wrong. Since 2009 almost 80% of the increase in the world’s money has come from Emerging Markets in general, and China in particular. It is the rapid slowdown in EM, exacerbated by the strong US$ discussed in the previous Fortnightly Solid Ground, that is bringing deflation to the world. The developed world will feel that deflationary wind and it will raise real rates of interest at a time when the central bankers cannot reduce nominal rates of interest. The chart below shows how, even in the USA, inflation expectations are declining and real rates of interest rising.
US 5 Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities- Inflation Breakevens
Since July the markets expected average annual inflation rate, over the next five years, has declined from 2.1% to just 1.6%. After five years of QE inflation expectations are right back where they were in the final quarter of 2009. With no ability to reduce nominal rates further, the efficacy of monetary policy rests almost entirely upon its ability to generate inflation and depress real rates of interest. Monetary policy is failing to create inflation and if the central bankers don’t control this variable they certainly don’t control the price of financial instruments.
This is the third time that inflation expectations have dived in the post QE world and, on each occasion when expected inflation has neared 1.5%, the S&P500 has fallen sharply. It falls sharply because, in a land of near-zero nominal rates, the success or failure of the Fed is gauged solely on its ability to produce inflation. On both previous occasions when inflation expectations got this low the Fed responded with even easier monetary policy, causing inflation expectations to rise; but crucially inflation did not.
The bell has rung for Pavlov’s dogs twice before, but the meat of higher inflation has not been delivered. Now the bell is ringing for the third time. With the key driver of inflation events well beyond US shores, the inability of the Fed to generate the meat of inflation will be much more apparent on this occasion. After five and a half years of QE there is still no meat for the dogs: real rates of interest are rising rapidly and almost all financial market instruments are overvalued. If you believe that the correct price for financial market instruments is the price decreed by the Federal Reserve, you need to look at the chart above and ask yourself a simple question, ‘With inflation expectations back at 4Q 2009 levels, what evidence is there that QE works?’
Financial markets continue to price in the God-like omnipotence of central bankers, while the evidence mounts of their all-too-human mortality. When it comes to central bankers, do not forget the words of the Wonderful Wizard of Oz from the great monetary allegory of the same name. Unmasked and accused by Dorothy of lying about his great powers, he could only remark-
Oh, no, my dear… I'm… I'm a very good man. I'm just… a very bad Wizard.
The current Chair of The Governors of The Federal Reserve system may not be a man, but she is also no wizard.
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LOL
I'm rolling in so much cash.....I don't know what to do with it.
Keep it coming......screw your grandkids.
QE works for wealthy Jews. Just asked them, they are always on CNBC 24/7
And CNN...
It is a relief that the continuously fraudulent inflation "scare tactic" will never materialize. There is some relief in oil prices that actually is making a difference for people right now.
Sadly, the oil price manipulation is a Fuck Putin move rather than an effort to let Struggling Citizen up for air for a couple of seconds.
Evil people are doing this.
is it really oil price... manipulation? Or just the Saudi Kingdom showing off it's power of being perfectly capable to sell under cost, for a while?
I remember Saddam Hussein being the butt of a similar manouver, and him being livid with Kuwait and SA about how he was supposed to pay the debt he accumulated while spilling river of blood on attacks on Iran, as requested by his backers, and then being so bloody mad about it that he approached the US Ambassador, who then said "it's all business among you guys", which then resulted in Iraq's invasion of Kuwait
this was of course when we still had "just" wars, perfectly authorized by the UN on the ground of... invasion and annexation. before "Freedom Fries" being a result of "they hate us because they don't believe us about the possession of WMDs by the enemy", and way before "enemy combatants" and burials-by-flying-helicopters
Sorry Ghordi. I don't read your shit.
Thanks
"The meat of higher inflation has not been delivered?" Tell that to the 16.2% increase in ground beef year over year - http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/hows-inflation-really-doing-ask-cheeseburger-n215036
Fuck the FED
Has anyone seen that picture of all those bankers' heads on poles lining Wall Street?
No?
QE works just fine.
pods
Who said inflation isn't prevalent? When the government tries to hide inflation to keep entitlement payouts from running up, sure it isn't higher. Anyone who lives and breathes knows everything is skyrocketing; food, healthcare, etc.
The reason inflation cannot and will not solve our problem is because; so many are not un-employed/under-employed, and wages are not increasing. Simple math- if shit is getting more expensive and you aren't getting paid more to keep up with it, what happens? Central bankers should be tried for as criminals for what is transpiring.
Inflation is not natural occurrence economic operation, but is artifact of fiat monetary regime in control of corrupt and dishonest ruling class.
~"QE works just fine."~
That's the funny thing about QE. It works..., until it doesn't. But don't worry, when that moment comes that it doesn't, you'll have far more urgent things to worry about than something old-fashioned and silly like whether QE works. You know, serious shit like "why don't the printing presses at the Treasury make any difference any more?", and "We're ruined! Our Dollars are worthless!" You won't even think about QE then.
The fact is that QE/ZIRP is doing exactly what your owners want it to. The data on where all the wealth is going is very clear on this.
That is what irks me about all of these posts about QE (and central banking in general). Why is it that only nutcases like me can see how things operate? Not like all the information is hidden. Hell, the BOE stated how reserves are created!
How can anyone post an article on ZH under the assumption that QE was for anyone other than the bank's benefit?
pods
Modern banking system is only elaborate apparatus for theft of labor and wealth from working class by power organ class. But is model after old regime establish by ancients, only replace mace and battle axe with banking deposit slip and atm card.
QE is the greatest example of subsidization in human history. And 75% of the population don't even know what it is, or how it functions. Does anyone really wonder why shit like the Patriot Act gets passed (and is then extended in scope) when most people are too ignorant to see what's hidden in plain view?
Exactly. People and talking heads (who are not real people in my opinion) are arguing over inflation/deflation. I think the debate is a misdirection. Economist vodoo doctors are speaking about inflation or deflation as it relates to the "assets" of the politically connected elite. The common man/woman is talking living expenses. Distraction for the masses either way.
FUCK THE FED!!!
and you block my comment - I was just coming back to the main theme of "does QE work" - with a comment that you are both sorry and you don't read my shit? civility does not really work that mathematically, you know? Otherwise I'd be using my ancient bullwhip on people I dislike and then very courteously excusing myself, and really, really enjoying myself for being even with them
anyway, Does QE Work? Well, look at Japan. Stagnant economy with Zombie Banks for one generation, and now Full Blast QE. Do you see a difference? Or is it still "a bug in search of a windshield"?
Wow! Scary guy.
lol. did I push some of your buttons? when? in the last 26 weeks and 22 hours?
Here is some advice: get out your ancient bull whip and hang yourself with it.
JRobbie, now you just proved that you do read my shit
you still have not written why. I do sense some animosity, you know? does my avatar disturb you? or something I wrote? come on, let it out. do you mind me giving a comment to your comment?
don't be shy
Sorry for the delay. I was doing something else.
Blowhards with superiority complexes / attitudes vs. the rest of mankind really bore the shit out of me.
You almost never find them in contact sports clubs or even in racing situations because they might get beat by someone stronger. So it is really nothing personal. I ID'd you a while ago (I do not quantify the time frame like an OCD freak show) and I don't think much of you. So avoid my posts ant I will avoid yours.
Or just the Saudi Kingdom showing off it's power of being perfectly capable to sell under cost, for a while?
Another possibility could be that Saudi oil fields are depleting and what they are getting out now is some cheap high sulphur sludge/condensate crap, which would explain both the lower supply as well as the price.
Just a thought.
You mean kinda like pink slime in ground beef, except they put in worthless ink for oil??
Man, the markets have NO liquidity today...maybe setting up for a hell of an afternoon close into a weekend full of surprise and stupidity.
or they think it's more valuable in the future. there is this Austrian School view about lending rates expressing a time preference. inversely, if you push rates down to near nothing, it would make investments in the far future more valuable and appropriate
"QE works for wealthy Jews..."
I do NOT disagree, but... would suggest we replace the well-polished "Wealthy Jews" ladder with a different and more useful ladder: "Poor Christians". WHY are Christians poor?
No matter whom you're talking about (fucking Martians or Klingons, for all I care), anytime 2% of the population gets the better of the 98% of the population, my rational brains says... "Whoa, time out!" What is it about these two populations (their Vision + Values + Attributes) that causes this VOLUNTARY outcome? Cause there's NO fucking way you're going to convince me or any sane person that the 2% has somehow, magically, divinely FORCED the 98% into submission and subservience.
IOW.. the True Root Cause is NOT in the 2% (playing only the Blame Game), but in the 98%. It is THEIR Worldview, their Vision, their Values and their Attributes that are to blame. It's PURE DARWINISM.
As I've suggested MANY times before, IMO, the True Root Cause is the BASTARDIZATION and HIJACKING of so-called "Christianity". The Romans have built it (Homogenized and Standardized it) as a "Religion for the Plebeian Masses", not the Elite. When that happened, it became "useful" to Emperor Constantin, and to EVERY "Christian" leader since then. Be it a secular leader or clerical leader: They ALL enjoyed its Shepherd-Sheep biz model, to sustain their wealth and lifestyle.
"Christianity" as we have it today, does well against less developed or less aggressive/predatory cultures/religions, but absolutely gets its ass kicked by more aggressive/predatory cultures and religions. E.g. Jews, Modern Chinese, Koreans. It's PURE DARWINISM: Deal with it. Adapt or perish, you damn "Christian sheep".
p.s. I have suggested time and again that it is Christianity itself that needs to be reborn as a faith -- so that people are not "reborn" as sheep (the current system), but reborn as Real People who are able to successfully deal with even Predatory Cultures and Religions.
pps. Given that these principles are so SELF-EVIDENT, I tend to be extremely suspicious of anyone who persists in playing the Perpetual Victim ("Them Jews!") and playing the Blame Game ("They've done this and that to me, to us all!"). If a person cannot or will not stop playing the Christian Victim, and keeps playing the Blame Game, then they either need some serious fucking Therapy, or they might be Chosenite Shills who keep deflecting and redirecting the Argument into all sorts of false directions, avenues and alleys.
For those that don't already know.
FED policy, since August of 1987, is as easy as 1,2,3.
1) New Chair Satan is installed.
2) Raise rates (This time, just let the real rate creep up) and crash markets.
3) Counterfeit Trillions more.
All QE is zero sum game. Initially, zirp helps home owners refin w savers income. credit card rates are unchanged. Now the refin/home buying high is over savers are left w less income to live on which offsets the initial plus. W declining real wages and zero interest income, the economy is dead. But stock prices go higher for the giant spx companies as they use 60-70% of operating income for stock buybacks rather cap ex which would create economic activity and jobs. CAT, IBM, KO, XOM all have declines sales but record stock prices because of massive buybacks, but over time they are essentially liquidiating.
None
and "experts" saying over and over it helped ... though never exactly how ... makes no difference
And just like every other government program they will need just a bit more money and time to make it work....to infinity and beyond!
This is very complex article and worth another read. BTW 2 Hearted is my favorite brew and that is a clever user ID.
Instead of government monopoly on foreign exchange and a fixed or near fixed exchange rate, China could allow its companies to keep & spend USD and EUR. China would have just as much foreign money but on corporate and personal balance sheets (like here), not in the CB in Beijing/Singapore. No need to offset financial flows from trade by buying in USD with new-printed CNY. Less Chinese inflation/land speculation...where would they spend the USD? QE leaks abroad and the Chinese government rides the inflation tiger.
It has worked like a charm for the 0.1%. Does anyone else matter in a fascist, police state?
Arrest the Federal Reserve Chosenites...
Detain indefinitely as "enemy combatants"
Long View: Historian sees S&P fall to 400
May 16, 2011 : Stock market historian and CLSA consultant Russell Napier discusses with head of Lex John Authers his warning that the real bear market in the S&P has yet to come and could push the US equities index down to 400, plus he explains how emerging markets could trigger a leap in US Treasury yields.
None, that's why they're using it. Times are desperate indeed. Low interest rates for 5+ years is bound to turn out well /sarc off
QE is all about social planning.
They want to sway the habits of the population.
If they want housing to become un-affordable for the next generation, the central bank counterfeits money and dumps it into fraudulent home loans.
If they want poverty, they print money and inflate the price of food.
etc.
Every achievement/failure of each generation is planned before hand to create a certain type of desired "culture" and to curb reproduction, pre-planned social and economic pressures as a form of population control.
you give them way too much credit
they didn't have a clue ... and still don't ... of what they are doing
They very well know what thay are doing.
Until I see a big bank deposit in my account by mistake, I dont buy the they dont know what they are doing shit!
Have you ever realised no matter wha these alleged incompetent sods do, it always work to our disadvantage and their advantage.
Think again about your they dont have a clue notion.
believe what you want - but they have no clue
take it for what is worth, but i have a friend who knows betsy duke (a FR governor till summer of 2013) ... saw her last fall after she left FR ... the crap she told him was the EXACT crap they say publicly ... QE saved the US from a Great Depression
the crap she told him was the EXACT crap they say publicly
They, I suppose, are honest folks then with integrity and honesty strongly embedded in their character?
They would never even think about killing somebody or bombing a country for some material gain and ofcourse never lie about things, despite being politicians?
again, i think you give them too much credit.
I honestly believe they think they are helping.
Did you read the Bernanke comments from yesterday (wednesday?)? ... a lot of ivory tower / never worked in the real world nonsense ... might sound good in a textbook, though
you are correct, I have had a similar interaction with a FR board member and ivy-league educated venture capital guys. It really is a club and they really believe the bullshit they are selling. If history is any guide, the will believe it until they die, by guillotine or otherwise.
oy vey. If they want to argue that TARP saved us from depression by bailing out banks, preventing a bank run, and thus saving everyone from losing their money, then fine. But QE is didn't save any citizen anything. all it's doing is helping banks to recapitiliza by stealing from the savers. FU FED.
I wouldn't put it past FR people to talk like that in polite company - at the cocktail circuit. And who knows maybe the do believe that somehow they can pull this off and bring back the 1950s economic arrangement between their masters and the peons. However what QE actually does do, as is evidenced by Japan, is kick the can of real market consequences down the road, by among other things keeping zombie banks afloat and the super rich consuming. I maintain the distance the can is able to travel is getting less and less and the can is getting heavier and heavier..
Ther is always this: The Pretense of Knowledge - Friedrich A. Hayek - Mises Daily
are you sure you can attribute all those very complex plans to QE? I have a much, much simpler explanation: moar
which is the neologism for a very old sin: greed
and yet (intellectual) sloth has also a part: it was "making housing affordable" that hurt the camel's back. that was the project of creating a certain type of desired culture
Good point. Who can afford to have kids anymore?
Ebola
Etc.
no way. The banks are bankrupt. Do you remember TARP? QE is keeping zombie banks alive. Oh, and we're not just talking about local and national banks. The FED is fucked and they know it. Remember that the FED is made up of all the regional banks. if the regional banks are bankrupt, the FED is bankrupt. And, the FED has lent Trillions to the federal government, which is also bankrupt.
QE is all about the FED trying to save its own skin and keep the game going.
You 'jumped the shark'. They simply want to extract every last dollar out of your pocket before you die and pass it off to your Goyim kids. Watch as the baby boomers die penniless and, probably, homeless as well. Slaves are 'assets' until they can no longer work.
I guess is depends on your definition of "works". Like Obamcare the reasons used to convince the sheep that QE is a good thing are very different from the results it produces. So, the proponents keep saying it "works" even though the sheeple are saying, "Well is suppose I'm just unlucky and eventually this'll help me and those around me". It takes a long time for some to realize the line you're in is the one that leads to the slaughter.
Fed balance sheet up $7.3B last week. $37.2B this month.
Oh? They are still doing accounting over there?
Well I am obviously not informed......................
Listen fucking fuck, to understand the game you have to go back to its origins.
When the TPTB got together and conspired to print the first Dollar (or any fiat for that matter) was printed, what was the idea behind?
They had all the dollars and people had all the physical assets and labour.
The idea was to get the people to exchange their physical assets and labour in exchange for those printed dollars (by passing legal tender laws). That was the first QE in essence, but it was small and flew under the radar.
However, over the years because of the interest component and exponential function, a lot more needs to be printed to keep the system going and cover the previous obligations, settling a debt with another debt (dollars), round and round in circles.
Previously it was covert printing, now because f the sheer size it has gone overt and this QE talk by experts etc is just bullshit to keep the masses unaware, in a trance. Lipstick on a pig.
Fuck of Banalysts.
It's way past time we the people take our money printing press back from the chosenites and print a few Trillions for ourselves, buy all their assets from them, and see how THEY like it...
SPOT ON, Brother!
Have you seen the light?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX5tfRdkoY0
Correct. Moreover, this blatant fraud/manipulation by people in power has happened throughout history numerous times, but usually in very isolated econonomies/societies. This time is very different. This time the fraud is global.
This time there were faster means of communication and travel, thanks to electronics and oil, so going global was a scammers logical choice.
Why limit yourself to a village or a country, when you can OWN the World!
What do you think the secret black knowledge/arts was that is handed down from one generation to another by some secret societies over the centuries?
Of course, but the hubris of men always ends the same way...
history is very clear on how this gets worked out.
...."the hubris of men always ends the same way..."
'Nuff said'.
"history is very clear on how this gets worked out."
Bring on the rope. Afterward, turn WS into a museum on corruption to reduce it in the future.
Bingo!
Funny how people actually believe that printing receipts for goods and services is the same as creating more goods and services...
Exactly: trade nothing for something... but make the something look like it has value. Parasites can never produce for themselves. They need to feed off of others.
Giving free fiat to companies through public offerings and then enslaving them with debt and covenants has everyone working for them. Bribe those at the top so that they are part of the theft and fraud.
The public has no real ownership of stocks now because all of the shares are actually owned by Cede and Company ... and people are only beneficiaries of the shares, not the owners. They tried to do the same trick with MERS. They got us all to give them free unsecured loans with banks deposit accounts, 401Ks and IRAs. They have the fiat in their possession and we are simply unsecured creditors.
My guess is that there will come (another) day of reckoning. People will eventually wake up... and those parasites who purport to rule us will be overcome by their slaves. Hopefully it will be done before they wipe us out again.
Real Asset Inflation is needed to erase the massive explosion in bad first tier assets (loans) and the uncountable level of second and third tier financial "assets" (casino)
Derivatives not used for hedging = cancerous death to banking and monetary systems.
Linear thinking is for dummies. Inflation will fix everything. Idjit
plus thousand/1000 to get a histrionics view of it all...
31 U.S. Code 5103 United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues. Foreign gold or silver coins are not legal tender for debts.Notice it only prohibits Foreign gold or silver, not domestic. I see no reason you cannot do business with domestic gold or silver. Of course Bernard Von Nothaus was convicted of counterfeiting using silver rounds. The u.s government said because they were round americans were too stupid to determine the difference.
By the way.... He still has not been sentenced. It's now going on 4 years.
Here's the good news...
Although he was convicted in March 2011, the U.S. government has still not reached a sentencing decision for Von NotHaus. Since his trial, The New York Times has said that some people describe Von Nothaus as "the Rosa Parks of the constitutional currency movement." As of December 2013, he remains free pending sentencing.[13]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_von_NotHaus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Dollar
it "worked" because there are no "tanks in the streets" or guillotines in D.C...
same as it ever was...
printed money is the definition of free. we all know there is no free lunch. so free is theft.
it is sooooooooooooooo simple, printers are theives. they are rewarded, honored and put on status of untouchable.
this is what is wrong.
how to correct.
let i's and u's figure that out....
i remember a time when horse theives were......
edit, everything else is a distraction, kinda like the r and d game. gdp, unemployment, ect are distractions with the biggest of all being the stalk markets. watch the bonds/dolla for demise and then saddle up for a ride. ps, don't forget lots a rope...
The Fed’s Assault On Savers—–Backdoor Repudiation Of The Federal Debt
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-feds-assault-on-savers-backdoor-repudiation-of-the-federal-debt/?utm_source=wysija&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mailing+List+Mid+Day+Thursday
It works because everyone else in the world allows the U.S. to do it.
With a Rotchild central bank in every port in the world, it's easy.
Welcome to the NWO.
Do you like it so far?
Reality is what the state says it is.
Fundamentals only matter when the state wants them to matter.
Precisely, this is how the affairs of man operate, from markets right down to Little League Baseball. It's all a sham for the priviliged to get their way.
Proof?
The proof is rhetorical - you will be asked to prove a negative, in effect - prove not only that it didn't work but that things would not be worse without QE.
There;s the rub - they will always say it wasn't enough money/printing/future taxes on labor - but that thngs would have been worse without it.
Naturally - the banks should have been allowed to fail, bondholders should accept the losses they risked, and people should rely more on smaller and community banks.
The disproof is Japan.
+1000
affirmative
i call it the "Rumsfeld Defense"
i used to watch the almost daily pressers rumsfeld had the first few years of OIF ... ALWAYS portrayed himself as the smartest man in the room ... (and no matter how FUBAR'd the situation in iraq) would explain if US operated in any other matter than it did ... results would have been worse
Failure to create inflation is one thing.
WHAT IF QE IS ACTUALLY DEFLATIONARY?
What if???????
It certainly has to be in a no - negetive GNP environment.
I believe it is at this point.
However, the trick is that the effects are not directly realized as most people expect. They appear as distortions - some sectors inflating (food per se) while other sectors are outright collapsing, requiring massive loans, increasing fees/taxes, and/or bailouts to avoid outright failure. It is "can-kicking" for the politicians, legalized "theft" for the insiders, and a modern form of warfare (because it all boils down to real resources anyhow - oil, gas, food, water). Net effect is negative in real terms though. A complex form of redistribution.
Sooner or later, reality will assert itself and the magnitude of what happens afterwards will be directly proportional to the extent of which reality has been avoided - at minimum.
Ah, the "jet engine" that is modern finance. Too bad we find out too late that it is used to power a bone grinder.
QE operates to transfer money to the shareholders of the big banks. From the only perspective that matters, it works just fine.
And the shareholders of the big banks is the Fed.
really depends on who you are:
if rich with lots of risk assets (house, stocks, bonds), its worked just fine.
if a middle-class citizen looking to put kids thru college or save for retirement, its crushed you.
so, just make sure your the former, and your ok!
QE was obviously never about anything but bailing out the Feds own central banks. Banks bailed out at the publics expense, job done.
Of course it bloody works. I never dreamt that I can buy junk metals so cheap.
"The consensus view is that it (deflation) was defeated by developed world central bankers flooding the world with money.
The consensus view is wrong. Since 2009 almost 80% of the increase in the world’s money has come from Emerging Markets in general, and China in particular."
If Napier is right, its about time to fasten your seatbelt and put on your helmet. Crash approaching in 3, 2, 1...
The funny thing is that every number the FED brings up for proving that QE works has been rigged by that same FED. The stock market, low gold prices and even the unemployment number is totally bogus not counting the people statistically kicked out of the workforce. It really all is magic. Magic propaganda.
I'm happy to see deflation. It drives down the price of canned goods, gold, firewood, ammunition - all of the stuff we'll need for the next phase of Federal experimentation!
I wonder if Russell still thinks another bust is coming? He predicted in 2011 a S&P bottom of 500.
I have always considered a University education important to learn certain skills and knowledge but more important about learning how to think for ones self. This is where the academic economist fail. But maybe they are just shills doing the devils work.
Of course, the Fed response to this lack of proof goes something like, “Just imagine how bad things would be if we hadn’t done QE.”
And my response to that is, “I’m tired of trusting your imagination too. Let’s get physical, experience it for real, then we’ll decide which outcome is best or worst.”
I’m beginning to think the only thing transparent about the Fed is its amazing capacity for self-admiration. It champions itself for avoiding non-existent problems that it dreams up and for attempting to correct real problems that it caused in the first place.
......."The job of the investor is to answer that impossible question........"
Wrong.....
The Job of every SPECULATOR is to Know when to Enter and Exit Position.........
Not "Impossible", but requiring a High Level of Skill and Knowledge, Developed over Time....
Much more than most are willing to put forth......
Of course the shit works. Wealth inequality is at an all time high. Mission accomplished.
1) Wealth inequity at all time high. Check
2) Half the country on some type of assistance. Check
3) Middle class at all time low. Check
4) Legalizing drugs to deaden the population. Check
Everything going according to plan.
‘With inflation expectations back at 4Q 2009 levels, what evidence is there that QE works?’
Plenty...the fact that prices have not collapsed into ABSOLUTE deflation is evidence that QE has "worked" as well as could be hoped. The Fed can prevent deflation, it just can't make the economy grow.
‘With inflation expectations back at 4Q 2009 levels, what evidence is there that QE works?’
Plenty...the fact that prices have not collapsed into ABSOLUTE deflation is evidence that QE has "worked" as well as could be hoped. The Fed can prevent deflation, it just can't make the economy grow.
‘With inflation expectations back at 4Q 2009 levels, what evidence is there that QE works?’
Plenty...the fact that prices have not collapsed into ABSOLUTE deflation is evidence that QE has "worked" as well as could be hoped. The Fed can prevent deflation, it just can't make the economy grow.
QE is a clear and present danger to the national security of the US and should be treated as such.
"Oh, no, my dear… I'm… I'm a very good man. I'm just… a very bad Wizard. "
As I recall, in the Wizard of Oz, he was futilely pulling a shitload of levers.
Lever pulling requires the fulcrum to be appropriately placed. Bernanke/Yellen fulcrum placement optimum point of deploy seems to be somewhere near Uranus.
They are laughing at us. Just sitting there and laughing at us all. The idea that they saved us from a greater depression? Ha they worked very hard for decades to put us in this spot. With the help of our government and media and academia. They all fn knew from the start too.
Stop pretending it was anything other than intentional from day one. Well if nobody else will say it I will. Fiat must come to an end planet wide.
Repete after me. FIAT MUST BE STOPPED PLANET WIDE. The sooner the better.
Inflation is theft. Krugster knows this as does Yellen and all the leaders too. So please stop pussy footing around it. Fiat is theft and anyone that is for it a thief. Coin must have a real measurable value or it is theft. And no they dont teach that in school!
Janet Yellen is Dorothy, but she can't tap her 'ruby slippers' three times because Alan Greenspan kept the ruby slippers so he could dress in drag for 'trick or treat' night on Halloween. Without the ruby slippers, or the Good Witch of the North, the bitch is dead in the water just like the USA
petro-dollar and the economies of the West. Gravity dictates that whatever goes up must eventually come down.
Evidence that QE works? Take a ride through upper Long Island and the Hamptons.........
Where the thievs live?
They pretend that the economy is growing , and you pretend to spend non-existent money .
You see why
https://www.academia.edu/8942403/The_Hysterical_Focus_is_your_friend_