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Are We Ready For The Fall Of Baghdad?
Submitted by Ron Holland via The Daily Bell,
I recently was in Vietnam and spent some time in prosperous, capitalist Saigon, now called Ho Chi Minh City, and toured the American War Museum. I believe there are a number of parallels between the Vietnam and Iraq War and that history could repeat itself now in Baghdad. Who can forget the former Vietnamese supporters of America being left behind as the last helicopter left the roof of the US embassy?
Today, America still has the strongest military in the world but our manufacturing capacity and financial situation shows the US is on a downhill slide like earlier over-extended and bankrupt empires throughout world history.
We've already watched the frightening incompetence of the Obama Administration and the CDC in dealing with the Ebola virus. One would have to be blind not to see the petrodollar deathwatch as Russia, China and the BRIC countries build new trading alternatives to avoid using the dollar world reserve currency when trading energy and other financial dealings.
This is simple payback for Washington's threats, banking fines and penalties against institutions and nations de jure that fail to march to the US tune of dictating trade and financial arrangements. The world is now ganging up on the United States because Washington has terrorized smaller nations around the world for decades as the big bully on the block.
We've had the misfortune of watching ISIS – originally funded and equipped by the US, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf allies, as was Bin Laden – turn on their benefactors out to destroy Assad in Syria because of a pipeline deal and take over much of Iraq. My point is just as the pro-US South Vietnamese government could not survive without major US forces, neither will the present government in Baghdad. So what could happen to the massive, fortified Baghdad US Embassy in the Green Zone that rivals the Vatican in size? What are the possible military objectives of the Islamic State fighters (ISIS) in regard to the Iraqi capitol?
While the US media elites and the Air Force concentrates on a meaningless ISIS backwater diversionary attack on Kobane on the northern Syrian border with Turkey, their real target is Baghdad and this will likely become very apparent between now and the end of the year. Our military experts confidently state that ISIS does not have enough troops to take and hold Baghdad, a city of 7 to 9 million people. They are correct unless ISIS wants to destroy its forces like the German Wehrmacht squandered its strength fighting in Leningrad or Stalingrad.
But they can win major PR victories without getting bogged down in street-to-street fighting in the Shiite areas in the north and east. Baghdad has been a city in transition since the Bush invasion created a power vacuum and endless violence in the capitol. Historically full of neighborhoods with a mix of Sunni and Shia, the population division is now almost complete with most Shia concentrated in the north and east of the river and most Sunni in the area stretching from the airport to the American Green Zone. Here lies the problem: The western Sunni neighborhoods are perfect cover for the Islamic fighters to slowly infiltrate the area around the Green Zone and embassy compound and mix in with the population. After all, this is a Sunni insurrection against the majority Shia government.
Hence the ISIS advance in Anbar province to just outside the airport is a direct threat to the Green Zone because their forces will be moving through predominantly Sunni neighborhoods all the way east to the American embassy. They could but surprisingly have not attempted to shut down the airport and here is where the situation gets interesting. Late this week, the Iraq army leadership basically said that unless US forces arrive to help them defend the western approaches to the city, they will throw down their weapons and go home – and I believe they will.
The scenario I see is the first attack will likely be against the most heavily defended target, the US embassy and the Green Zone. The ISIS fighters are not strong enough to take the heavily fortified green zone by direct assault and so it will probably fail.
The US will then attempt to fly in reinforcements to the airport and this will be when ISIS will start mortar fire and attempt to close the Baghdad airport as well as attack any convoys through the Sunni neighborhoods heading to the Green Zone. They will likely be able to shut down the airport, thus forcing reinforcements and embassy staff leaving to use helicopters for transportation to airfields further south in Iraq or maybe even to Kuwait. Closing the airport will be a major public relations victory for ISIS.
A siege of the Green Zone and American embassy will likely then take place and the US will be forced to destroy by air the Sunni neighborhoods surrounding the area from the zone west to the airport at a minimum resulting in heavy Sunni civilian causalities. Once again, more bad PR for the United States.
Eventually, the US may well be forced to close the embassy and withdraw from the Green Zone, which will result in videos that remind the American public of the Saigon collapse back on April 30, 1975. This would be a tremendous PR victory for the extremists, resulting in more fighter recruits.
Finally, if the US is forced to withdraw from their fortified embassy then, of course, ISIS will take over America's largest embassy in the world. Note, this embassy compound can hold 35,000 American personnel and is basically a small city-state within Baghdad that is massively defended.
This, again, is another victory for ISIS. Finally, the US may well decide to destroy the entire Green Zone and embassy by air to prevent its occupation by the terrorists. This will provide yet more videos – the US destroying its biggest embassy in addition to our earlier air attacks directed at our own tanks and trucks taken by ISIS troops when the Iraq army ran away from Mosul and northern Iraq.
Although the Bush invasion of Iraq has been a costly tragic mistake for all involved, we would do well to never again put US troops back on the ground there. Otherwise, our other economic and financial weaknesses and major threats to our national interests, including the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency, could happen far sooner when combined with a major military defeat and loss of prestige that does not have to take place.
I will be writing more about what happens on the home front to private wealth, prosperity and property when empires collapse and why American investors should look now at possible safe haven opportunities and global investment alternatives to survive and prosper in the future. Remember, all empires die but – although seldom covered in the history books – it is never a pleasant experience for the citizenry.
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If the US can't get it right they should stay out. Playing political correctness caused thousands of deaths in Vietnam. There was no reason for the US to be in Iraq. Sadam kept all the factions at hand. It's the reason he was brutal.
There is no right with regards to iraq.
It was actually hundreds of thousands of South Vietnamese troops that were killed when the North Vietnamese finally over ran the South in 1975. The US was war weary and thanks to testimony from John Kerry, among others, congress passed laws preventing any further funding of the S. Vietnamese. The North slowly rebuilt probing here and there until they were sure the Americans would not return.
Of course we know now that the US was broke and the world was facing an international monetary crisis. Nixon closed the Gold window and the worlds reserve currency became completely fiat.
And lets not make Sudam into some altruistic "he had to be brutal to govern" guy. The reason he was brutal was that he was a power hungry sociopath. The effect of his brutality kept the factions at bay.
If the forces that control the tip of the US military sword had a come to jesus moment and said enough of this perpetual war with the sole purpose to enrich a few with power and or richs, I would be for cleaning up our mess. But that's not going to happen. No, the US will likely make the situation far worse directly and indirectly possibly causing the violence to spread. There was never a scenario in which the Iraqi citizens would benefit 100% from the invasion and subsequent pullout. This is a lose lose situation for The Iraqis and the US.
The Middle East War being right or wrong, still any reasonable observer would conclude that Bush was more or less competent in its waging. Obama is either a total incompetent or deliberately seeking US defeat everywhere in the World today.
Correct. Obama officially switched sides at Benghazi with CIA (Brennan) running ME wars and why the scandal is so covered up.
Much overlooked, but Bush had moderate Sunnis fighting alongside Americans against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the 'Awakening'. Then without firing more shots the Syrian army unilaterally ran out of Jordan, Hezbollah stood down, Hamas stood down, Ghadaffi renounced WMD and opened for Western inspections, and Taliban were on the run. They saw what was happening.
Obama was the green light radical muslims were waiting for. Obama reversed everything and sent moderate muslims back into hiding. 50% of Obama's actions by pure chance throwing darts should have at least turned out positive/neutral. 100% bad outcomes result is purposeful.
the fracking worked better than expected in the post war oil price market
.
we are energy independent bitchez
Oh, I wish I was in the land of Saddam
Old times there are not forgottem
Look away, look away, look away, Anbar Land.
If ISIS was real we would be doing more about it. All the efforts we are seeing here are pansy assed. I am not saying that there are not folks killing folks, what I am saying is that I am pretty certain we are letting it happen. What is currently happening is Kabuki theater. I feel for our victims it sucks being a hostage to these fuckers.
The Bible said something about rich men having a harder time getting into heaven than getting a camel through the eye of a needle. I am afraid that is us folks. USA. Us. Even as we are being raped and robbed we are benefitting from this shit relative to others. We don't want it, we are still guilty. Complex does not cover it.
Our culture sucks.
Yet another bible mistranslation. Camel hair rope.
Things are way out of balance. Many people are fighting. When do the western revolutionaries get to have some fun?
I made it through half the article. The We's and American's and so on and so forth misconceptions gagged my eyes from reading more. Dude the NWO had weapons of mass destruction that can vaporize World Trade Centers 13 years ago. The NWO is supplying weapons and financial support to ISIS so they can take over Baghdad. A government of the United States of America outside of the NWO does no longer F'n exist.and neither does an American financial system. That's all been past tense at least a decade ago.
Oh well.
I repeat what I commented previously:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-11/christians-are-being-persecuted-islamic-terrorists
In my opinion, the plan behind deliberately making fanatical Islamic forces even more fanatical, and even more dangerous, is that is being done deliberately in order to generate situations which eventually become so extremely deteriorated that those will be able to rationalize and justify the use of weapons of mass destruction, in order to be able to kill at least hundreds of millions, if not billions of people.
Saddam Hussein told the US, invading Iraq will be another Vietnam for you, and so far it ias turned out that way.
Both sides didnt say that about the civilians..and they pay thr long bitter price for this
A Window Opens
- The luckiest, fittest, smartest, with the capability for ruthlessness survive – always have – always will
- Resources are finite and therefore ownership is a zero sum game
- The strong always take from the weak – if they do not then that is a sign of weakness and a competitor will take from the weak and will usurp the formerly strong dropping them into weakling status
- Humans tend to group by clan or on a broader basis by nationality (strength in numbers bonded by culture) and they compete with others for resources
- Competition always exist (I want it all!) but it becomes fiercer when resources are not sufficient to support competing clans or nations
- Tribal societies understand these dynamics because they cannot go to the grocery store for their food – so they are intimately aware of the daily battle to feed themselves and the competition for scare land and resources
- Modern affluent societies do not recognize this dynamic because for them resources are not scarce – they have more than enough.
- One of the main reasons that resources are not scarce in affluent societies is because they won the battle of the fittest (I would argue that luck is the precursor to all other advantages – affluent societies did not get that way because they started out smarter --- rather they were lucky – and they parlayed that luck into advances in technology… including better war machines)
- As we have observed throughout history the strong always trample the weak. Always. History has always been a battle to take more in the zero sum game. The goal is to take all if possible (if you end up in the gutter eating grass the response has been – better you than me – because I know you’d do the same to me)
- And history demonstrates that the weak – given the opportunity – would turn the tables on the strong in a heartbeat. If they could they would beat the strong into submission and leave them bleeding in the streets and starving. As we see empire after empire after empire gets overthrown and a new power takes over. Was the US happy to share with Russia and vice versa? What about France and England? Nope. They wanted it all.
- Many of us (including me) in the cushy western world appear not to understand what a villager in Somalia does – that our cushy lives are only possible because our leaders have recognized that the world is not a fair place --- Koobaya Syndrome has no place in this world --- Koombaya will get you a bullet in the back --- or a one way trip to the slum.
- Religious movements have attempted to change the course of human nature --- telling us to share and get along --- they have failed 100% - as expected. By rights we should be living in communes --- Jesus was a communist was he not? We all know that this would never work. Because we want more. We want it all.
- But in spite of our hypocrisy, we still have this mythical belief that mankind is capable of good – that we make mistakes along the way (a few genocides here, a few there... in order to steal the resources of an entire content so we can live the lives we live) --- ultimately we believe we are flawed but decent. We are not. Absolutely not.
- But our leaders --- who see through this matrix of bullshit --- realize that our cushy lives are based on us getting as much of the zero sum game as possible. That if they gave in to this wishy washy Koombaya BS we would all be living like Somalians.
- Of course they cannot tell us what I am explaining here --- that we must act ruthlessly because if we don’t someone else will --- and that will be the end of our cushy lives. Because we are ‘moral’ --- we believe we are decent – that if we could all get along and share and sing Koombaya the world would be wonderful. We do not accept their evil premises.
- So they must lie to us. They must use propaganda to get us onside when they commit their acts of ruthlessness.
- They cannot say: we are going to invade Iraq to ensure their oil is available so as to keep BAU operating (BAU which is our platform for global domination). The masses would rise against that making things difficult for the PTB who are only trying their best to ensure the hypocrites have their cushy lives and 3 buck gas (and of course so that the PTB continue to be able to afford their caviar and champagne) …. Because they know if the hypocrites had to pay more or took at lifestyle hit – they’d be seriously pissed off (and nobody wants to be a Somalian)
- Which raises the question --- are we fools for attacking the PTB when they attempt to throw out Putin and put in a stooge who will be willing to screw the Russian people so that we can continue to live large? When we know full well that Putin would do the same to us --- and if not him someone more ruthless would come along and we’d be Somalians.
- Should we be protesting and making it more difficult for our leaders to make sure we get to continue to lead our cushy lives? Or should we be following the example of the Spartans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeYVIWz99I
- In a nutshell are our interests as part of the western culture not completely in line with those of our leaders – i.e. if they fail we fail – if they succeed we succeed.
- Lee Kuan Yew is famous for saying ‘yes I will eat very well but if I do so will you’ Why bite the hand that whips the weak to make sure you eat well.... If you bite it too hard it cannot whip the weak --- making you the weak --- meaning you get to feel the whip….
- Nation… clan … individual…. The zero sum game plays out amongst nations first … but as resources become more scarce the battle comes closer to home with clans battling for what remains…. Eventually it is brother against brother ….
- As the PTB run out of outsiders to whip and rob…. They turn on their own…. As we are seeing they have no problem with destroying the middle class because it means more for them… and when the weak rise against them they have no problem at all deploying the violent tactics that they have used against the weak across the world who have attempted to resist them
- Eventually of course they will turn against each other…. Henry Kissinger and Maddy Albright bashing each other over the head with hammers fighting over a can of spam – how precious!
"The scenario I see is the first attack will likely be against the most heavily defended target, the US embassy and the Green Zone..."
"The US will then attempt to fly in reinforcements to the airport and this will be when ISIS will start mortar fire and attempt to close the Baghdad airport as wel..."
It's qute likely that if these two attacks happened, it would be the other way round.
Be ready for Armegeddon
All Bibles(Revelation) prophesies coming aw'righty starting with fall of 911 (the statue)
and then the magical fairy guy with the long gray beard comes down from heaven and saves us all?
hurray! yippee! i'm going to tell everyone the good news!
You mean Karl Marx or Timothy Leary? Still dead.
Revelation refers to the past. Not the present.
i.e. It already happened.
If ISIS take Baghdad, the fall of The Empire will be relatively rapid, all over the world American bases will be at risk.
What, the ones that wer'nt supposed to be there in the first place? Terrible, what a shame.
There isn't a chance in hell Baghdad will fall.
ISIS is allowed to exist and is simply the precursor for a Syrian false flag.
ISIS is flying Syrian planes remember? How long till an actual Syrian plane gets blasted?
How long till Turkey invokes NATO over a Syrian attack?
Iraq is the useful idiot.
NATO should devoke Turkey for not allowing forward bases because of 'muslim sensitivities'.
The map of the ME is being redrawn. This will result in massive relocations of sectarian groups. After 'nation building' failed, because these groups don't allow each other the light of day, this is the follow up, either intentionally or unintentionally.
bullshit. isis needs weapons from owebomba just to keep going.
Listen Zero's.
Know your status. The "BLOOD WORM" does not discriminate.
Let me know if you're feeling feverish.
Iraq is and always will be driven by one thing: oil and its influence.
It manipulated Baby Bush into thinking that he could show up his dad for thinking Jeb was the only child with "presidential material".
It manipulated the Neocon religion into thinking that they could disregard history and control all the middle east from the gift of Iraq.
It conned them into thinking Afghanistan was winnable and could be tamed.
on and on.
race look between the lines, as a nam vet, winning was never the goal then nor now..can U guess what was the goal?
"It conned them into thinking Afghanistan was winnable and could be tamed."
Agreed, the definition of winning was very unique and determined by those in the shadows.
Wow, a made-for-prime-time-TV article from ZH. It reads like the cliff notes to a bad novel.
The Iraqi army, by throwing down their guns and going home would be doing the sensible human thing. No rational person wants to go out and murder other people. They need to be whipped from behind and prodded with sticks. My guess is that without America whipping the Iraqis they have no motivation to fight ... as is sane,
One then wonders who is whipping the ISIS mercenary army from behind?!? Have they burned the boats?
People will go out and murder others, especially in groups for plunder and power.
How come the Neo-Bolsheviks (aka Neo Cons) aren't being held to account?
(Answer: The Neo-Bolsheviks have implemented Police-State USSA to quash any dissent)
The Neo-Bolsheviks are in the Democrat Party, as well as the other American institutions that they have marched through. Good work Antonio Gramsci.
"against institutions and nations de jure"
Is he trying to sound sophisticated? If so, try spelling the foreign word correctly. "de jour"
Perhaps sophistication is in the eye of the beholder. According to Google: De jure is defined as "according to rightful entitlement or claim; by right." Du jour is French meaning "of the day", e.g., trendy, a cause celebre; soup du jour. Grammar bitch that I am I have learned that there are more important things than grammar, spelling and punctuation here at ZH . As the song du jour says, LET IT GO!
you utter cretin. hes using the latin, De Jure...according to rightful entitlement or claim; by right. not the French DU Jour (not de duh!)
You Philistine.
In the past, Baghdad was known as the "Paris of the Middle East"....Nice work, USA...
Yeah so uh when was that? Oh before the Brits chopped up the landscape and created Syria and Iraq mixing Sunni and Shea so thoroughly that they would fight amongst themselves rather than form a Calaphate. Obama is setting the stage to undo all of that, well he's gone beyond stage setting at this point I suppose.
I suspect Baghdad will become a Beirut style war zone for many years unless ISIS is greatly turned back. This means fire fights breaking out everywhere being the norm as forces backed by Shiite Iran face off against Sunni rebels supported by Saudi Arabia in a fight for control.
The situation developing in Afghanistan is beginning to remind me of the American exit from Vietnam, just a bit more mild and less rushed. With America scheduled to withdrawal troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 we must ask, is this really "peace with honor" all over again? Many of us remember the vivid video of Americas exit from Vietnam so many years, planes lifting their wheels off the tarmac with bullets whizzing by, enemies hot on our tail. It was not our greatest moment, we stayed too long. The article below looks deeper into why we should not be optimistic.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/09/afghanistan-peace-with-honor.html
Babylon will rise from the ashes. It may take a little time, but it is coming.
Can't even count the number of small nations that usher in brutal rule only to get in the crosshairs of the UN and/or the US for their brutality with their people, only to see the new ruler we install fall to a more brutal regime later. When will we learn? Its not survival of the fittest but survival of the most brutal of rulers.
Chickens coming home to roost.
How stupid all the illegal immigrants coming into the US must be. They are flocking to a country with increasingly limited labor markets, declining civil rights, increasing militarization of police, devaluing currency and standards of living. It's just more participants for the impending shit show.
Watching the fall of Saigon I knew then it was the end for america. I also knew she would likely not allow her empire to fall and return to being just a nation amoung nations.
The MIC, Security agencies and Wall street would regroup and through false flags, attacking small helpless nations and destroying the home economy would convince americans of the need for war to maintain the now struggling nation. They did not anticipate a resurgant Russia and is why they are concentrating on eliminating her but it won't happen. She and China hold all the cards. Yes america has the largest military but that requires a large amount of treasure,,, treasure she no longer has. They just have to wait patiently for the final event.
America had many chances but squandered them all. She could still pull her forces back, reindustrialize and become a nation amoung nations but pride and hubris won't allow it. She has destroyed her republic, her economy, her moral standing and her very reason for existance.Her Constitution and Declaration of Independence once the worlds envy and what made us exceptional are now the worlds joke which they openly ridicule.
Yes america may continue for awhile, just not the proud nation exemplifing truth, justice and liberty. The humiliating sight of america leaving Vietnam was just a rehersal for the main event when she is forced to pull her forces home because she can no longer fund them and her jobless, broke and indebted citizens tire of wars and threat of wars. Those troops most probably then will be used to attempt to thwart the breakup of a nation so divided unity is not possible.
The saddest thing is historians and politico's will say a nation of the people, by the people and for the people cannot be successful using america as proof. Despotic regimes will prevail and all because a lazy inept citizenry allowed themselves to be scammed and their country destroyed.
Humiliating as it is, the US has to cut a deal with Iran, lift sanctions, and then allow the Iranians to send in ground troops and armour. Only the Iranians have the capacity and military knowhow to crush ISIS in a few short weeks. In other words, the US has to abandon the Saudis and their grand delusions of Middle Eastern dominance. The US is a 7th Dan black belt serial user and betrayer anyway so that should be a cakewalk.
a lot of you here seem to think it is no big deal and this will not effect those in the US
it will, Damascus will be taken too.
The Muslims, not just ones foolish assisted by some in the US governement, will bring Jihad here in the US
This is not going to go as planned
Kind of like Babylon falling, a lot like Babylon falling
your stacking will do you no good
Get right with God
Your athiest friends will be useless.
We could all use some Winged Hussars at this point. Geet Wilders gives the elites hell. Time for us to awaken to Oden, hidden from us by lies these last 1200 years. We can show them what axes are for!
http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/6615550/7691f798/spreekbeurt_geert_wilders_tijdens_jihaat_debat.html
Wash DC is not only threatening the rest of the world, but threaten us as well. I hope that the rest of the world understand the difference between Americans and the Wash DC banking family syndicate.
Fall of Baghdad? Not going to happen. Its a Shiite/Sunni thing. Shiite militias dominate Baghdad and can be just as brutal as ISIS. They will defend every inch of their territory and are just itching to put heads on spikes once push comes to shove. Walking Dead analogy - see how Rick and co. dealt with the Terminus crew once they cornered them in the church.