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Energy Economics
Via Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity,
The reason why growth will be more scarce in the future...
The central point to this latest video is this: as we’ve shown in previous chapters of the Crash Course, our global economy depends on continual growth to function. And not just any kind of growth; but exponential growth.
But in order to grow, it must receive an ever-increasing input supply of affordable energy and resources from the natural world. What I’m about to show you is a preponderance of data that indicates those inputs will just not be there in the volumes needed to supply the growth that the world economy is counting on.
In short, on top of all the debt and other economic messes we’ve made for ourselves, constraints from the natural world will increasingly place limits on economic growth in a way we haven’t had to deal with over the past century.
This is why I’m so confident in the claim that the next 20 years will be completely unlike the past 20.
So understanding the dynamics at play here is key to forecasting what the future will be like. Since energy is the master resource, that’s where we’re going to start.
For those who simply don't want to wait until the end of the year to view the entire new series, you can indulge your binge-watching craving by enrolling to PeakProsperity.com. The entire full new series, all 27 chapters of it, is available -- now-- to our enrolled users.
The full suite of chapters in this new Crash Course series can be found at www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse
And for those who have yet to view it, be sure to watch the 'Accelerated' Crash Course -- the under-1-hour condensation of the new 4.5-hour series. It's a great vehicle for introducing new eyes to this material.
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Start saving gas now - fart in a jar.
Only the green ones.
A green one would be a shart not a fart - or do you mean green glass?
OK. Riddle me this energy shortage freaks.
If silver and gold represent real money and thus should beat the effects of inflation, please explain to me how in the 50's a gallon of gas cost 25 cents and now costs about $3.25, or the very same melt value of the very same silver quarter?
That unequivocally states that the real price of gasoline has remain unchanged from the 50's when it was "so" cheap.
Scarcity?
Not!
ie the very reason one owns precious metals. And which also tells a larger story
The energy shortage meme is part of the big government regulation, taxation and control program
The price change from 25 cents to $3.25 is fully accounted for the general rise in the level of prices cause by excessive over printing of fiat money
Ya' can't have it both ways, Kids
The concept of infinite exponential "growth" is insane. Chosenites are insane. Is there a connection?
I think Martenson's timeline is off a little. A better saying would be the next 60-70 years will not be like the last 60-70 years.
Possibly, but we have historically transitioned from other energy sources
Human -> animal -> wood/water -> coal -> oil -> ?
Will we go back to coal or take the next step? There's no obvious alternative at the moment. Nothing which can replace oil is in the pipeline yet. However there are technologies which might. Thorium for example, so maybe 50 years we'll have thorium reactors in our cars and never have to fuel them.
Actually the best real alternatives are probably going to be graphene carbon super capacitor/batteries charged using Molten Salt Thorium reactors. Both of which rely upon base elements that are more or less limitless. We will always need liquid fuels in some applications like jet propulsion, but taking civil transport and cargo off of liquid fuels would go a long way.
We have plenty of oil for the next 50-100 years. It's just expensive and time consuming to get at. Beyond that then we'll start having some serious issues.
Well......DUH !!
You silly Peak Cheap Energy deniers with your techno-magic assumptions (well.....there HAS to be something in the pipeline like DILITHIUM CRYSTALS !!)....where do you think we will get the money to extract the rest of the hard to get, hard to extract, hard to refine oil that is left much less ramp up mass production of graphene super capacitors, Molten Salt Thorium reactors, the above mentioned Dilithium Crytals or best of all......Marvin the Martian's answer found in the Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator ?
A massive ramp up of Fiat money and Ponzi schemes derived from it.
Serious issues past 50-100 years? What makes you think we don't have serious issues now? The very techologies you mentioned as our saviors will need TRILLIONS of dollars in R&D, even more for infrastructure rollout and phase in, maintenance, training for all that stuff.
We.....do.....not....have.....the......M. O. N. E. Y.
Even worse.....we do not have the will.
Collapse....it's what's for dinner.......over the next 50-100 years
All networks eventually collapse.This will be the biggest one in human history.
Eight Pieces of Our Oil Price Predicamenthttp://www.planbeconomics.com/2014/10/eight-pieces-of-our-oil-price.html
graphene ???
http://www.alternet.org/drugs/hemp-its-way-your-car-battery-and-many-things-you-havent-yet-imagined
Hemp Is on its Way to Your Car Battery and Many Things You Haven't Yet Imagined
"... Seems the ridged shape of hemp, when reduced to nano-sized carbon atom sheets (called graphene), causes it to outperform previously leading modes of experimental (and, by the way, environmentally unfriendly) energy storage at, according to a paper delivered at the 2014 meeting of the American Chemical Society, 1/1000th of the cost. ..."
Of course, Techno-0ptimism articles like that are based on deliberately ignoring that society is actually controlled by lies backed by violence, which systems will not develop in any objectively rational ways ... But nevertheless, one could be amused by imaging functional fusion energy, being channeled through motors mostly made out of industrial hem.
In a world with wars as population control, all things are possible...
Demand destruction.
Sources of economic activity which might have been profitable with cheaper oil become unprofitable and are curtailed.
All prices are set at the margin. Those purchasers who can only just afford to buy. If the price is 1 penny too high they don't buy and the economic activity which would have taken place does not.
So when you are running an inflationary monetary system rather than the oil/silver ratio increasing what you see is "the margin" rising up the economic ladder. The poorest can no longer afford the energy, then the less poor, then the middle classes become marginal. Does this sound familiar?
So energy does become more scarce and relatively more expensive and demand is crushed. For those not at the margin, oil is plentiful. It's the other guy that can't afford it.
Interesting here. Has nothing to do with Silver or PM.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Calculators/Inflation_Rate_Calculator.asp
For our enrolled users - GET THE FUCK OUT OF HERE!!!! Cocksuckers are charging you to watch vids then likely selling another product.
Knuckles,
The energy in oil came from ancient sunlight. It is essentially a finite resource. Oil discovery peaked in the 60s. We have been discovering less oil every year since then. A good field lasts a few decades, so it takes time to catch up with us.
We are simply going to have to adapt and use less energy as time moves forward.
This is a good docucmentary if you have the time.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/crude/
Regards,
Cooter
After watching this I now know that Greece, Detroit and Somalia are shitty places to live because of a drop in economic complexity or social complexity or both. Both social complexity and economic complexity rely on surplus energy. So a lack of surplus energy is fucking up these places at the same time that oversupply of oil is estimated to be 3-5 million barrels/day. It has nothing to do with the people who live there or the economic destruction carried out by the Euro. It must be nice to be an economist, living in a simplistic world where reality doesn't matter at all and can be ignored at will.
Energy is plentiful at the moment and will be for the next 20 years. What has been controlling this disaster that is unfolding and will continue to control it for the next 20 years is the all important "master resource": Fiat money, mainly dollars. Although energy is massively important in the long term, nothing matters at the moment other than the supply of money. Energy and other resources are completely controlled by this master resource as is human society as a whole. Fake money replaced energy as the master resource 40 years ago and is now creating an exponential growth in fake wealth fuelled by asset tranfers from the middle class and from (energy use in) the future.
If only this childish analysis were true. At least it would mean we were still tied to reality.
@Knukles:
To answer the riddle, perhaps the melt value of the silver quarter rose in tandem with the price of the gallon of gasoline due to the fact that silver, like gasoline, tends to be CONSUMED.
For example, silver has many uses in industry, and other applications, and if I may direct your attention to the link presented below, you may see that demand is outstripping supply.
https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
Good Point Knuckles and I generally agree with your PM - Inflation comparisons, but as someone in the industry i will tell you in the case of oil and gasoline, the answer is hidden, in government manipulated statistics, as usual. The reason your example "appears" to be a reasonable analysis is because again the "all in" costs of gasoline are excluded. When MIC costs are factored in, Petrol is insanely expensive nowadays.
Cheers......
What happens to the systemic price if MIC costs go to zero, meaning that energy becomes an actual free market? (Never happen, I know, but a person could dream, right?) Consumers of energy don't actually need MIC, only the MIC and govvies (and probably banks, but they are a different kind of slime) need MIC.
1,000,00 lbs of food w/ 10,000 fish on 3 Acres - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV9CCxdkOng
Oil is Abiotic it's cost of production is it's cost of extraction it is unlimitedly created in the earth crust : https://www.scribd.com/doc/3209608/abioticoil
Thorium Reactors alone will generate so much power that one the size of a house will generate 20 megawatts of power, and is 200x more efficient than Uranium reactors and SAFE. If developed it would of completley wiped out coal, natural gas, and oil heating combined.
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/gordonmcdowell/thorium-remix-2012-f...
The only shortages are the ones that are created by the manipulating psychopaths in power
Don't worry, plug the sheeple into the grid with generator equipped stationary bikes...
As long as you have a ps4/xbox/tv/ipad/whatever sitting in front of it, the electricity will flow...
You still need food as an energy input. Agriculture requires huge fossil fuel inputs to water, run equpiment, harvest, package, transport to market, etc.
not true. most of the energy input into the food chain is as pointless as ipads (e.g. upkeep for fancy restaurants). india spends less total energy per capita than we spend on food per capita. harvesting and transporting food uses very little oil.
Dragging a plough or seed drill through soil requires a fuckload of energy. My neighbour has several tractors, each 250-350 HP and he's out there for hours several times a week on several hundred hectares. The combine harvesters they use to harvest are 400-500HP. The fertilizer he puts down is produced using the Haber-Bosch process, it needs a shit load of natural gas.
Basically, you eat oil.
umm if you buy apples from chile then the cost of bunker fuel is 1 cent to ship 5 pounds of apples the 5000 mile journey. that's called CHEAP. i know little about the details of farming, but i do know that the cost of diesel fuel for tractors will not be much more expensive, as a percent of the final cost of, e.g. bread. this is exactly why we use tractors and ship food intercontinental distances.
Here is a nice experiment for you, Human Power Shower - Bang Goes The Theory - BBC One: www.youtube.com/watch?v=C93cL_zDVIM
Power in - Power out
Can't have that! The sheople would get fit, big pharma cannot make money off fit people as much as sickly diabetic cancerous fat lazy people.
And not just any kind of growth; but exponential growth.
ANY growth rate > 0 (even just 1 basis point) eventually goes vertical; it's just a question of time. It is in the nature of compounding because compounding IS exponential.
"Enter the Ebola."
Kills off "the useless eaters." No one seems to give two shits how letting that into the economy is good for growth. But OH HOW THE TEARS FLOW! Of course generating an economic recovery was never the point of monetizing the debt in the first place.
So my question is "now what?"
We are all just part of the programming after all.
Ebola (and the like) are mother nature and nature's God's way of ridding mother earth from the unseemly effects of the human infestation
Nature is a mother.
Mother nature my ass, Knukles. Weaponized Ebola came out of a US ARMY
Bioterrorism Lab in Kenema Africa and not out of a fruit bat during an all-you-can-eat buffet at the local US ARMY Bioterrorism Lab cafeteria. The
unseemly effects of the human infestation are obviously manifesting out of the US ARMY and not Africa proper or any other third world country. Americans breed too much and Africans should genocide the Americans IMHO not vice versa. Barbara & George Bush should have been imprisoned and chemically castrated for bringing George Bush Jr. into this world. If Bush did not exist and was genocided before skipping out on the Vietnam War we would all be better off today. Nelson Mandela was a much nicer guy than Geoge Bush was by a longshot. Genocide Texas, that's the ticket.
Is ebola a naturaly occurring pheonom? It doesn't seem to have the parallels of Darwin theory of evolution.
So, I guess we'll hit escape velocity in about 200 years.
ANY growth rate > 0 (even just 1 basis point) eventually goes vertical
No, that's not true. Linear growth is a real thing.
y = mx + b.
Fuck.
Though not explicitly mentioned, "basis point" implies percentage change.
Does NOT change the "cruxt" of his point which was / is that "compounding" is an exponential function and simply put, eventually goes vertical!
If I may, I would like to share a personal experience from my university engineering tutelidge 30 years past in retelling my professors' tale of the French Pond Lilly - an example in Exponential Functions:
The French Pond Lilly doubles in size every day. In 30 days, the Original ONE French Pond Lilly sufficiently multiplies such that they cover the entirety of the Hypothetical Pond killing all life beneath. On what day does the French Pond Lilly cover HALF the Pond? <<<Think about this for one moment before reading answer below - especially those non-enginnering / scientific types who have not had the opportunity to fail that test at university as most of the rest of we scientists did>>>> This story is an excellent example of how our society, and we humans in general, are so oblivious to significant, life altering events around us - unless and until personally experienced for first, or tenth, time.
ANSWER: On day 29, ONE DAY prior to the catastrophic event that will kill all pond life, is the point at which the "30-day" French Pond Lilly only covers one half the pond. As humans, and even early university engineers and scientists in-training, we fail the "exponential test" because most events in our lives are "linear events". In the French Pond Lilly story, had the growth rate of the Lilly been "linear", as is most in our human lives, it would have been DAY 15 (as most I expect answered) when one would expect the Lilly to have Half-Covered the Pond. As humans and generally procrastinators, we don't get too excited with dangerous events until some time later in the life cycle of event, ie, wait until we get to half life or so to even consider the issue. In the case of the Exponential Lilly, if we had waited until the half-life (Day 29) to do anything, we would have had exactly ONE DAY until D-Day.
Cheers......
Exponential growth...
"....I introduce this video to my students as "Perhaps the most boring video you'll ever see, and definitely the most important." But then again, after watching it most said that if you followed along with what the presenter (a professor emeritus of Physics at Univ of Colorado-Boulder) is saying, it's quite easy to pay attention, because it is so damn compelling."
Entire playlist for the lecture: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
Betcha that physicist is deeply committed to the Newtonian principles of gravitational effects driving universal relationships, discounting quantum mechanics and the "missing or lost force" of Einstein, electo-magneitcs. betcha betcha betcha
Boulder is a seething pile of statist claptrap disguised as science supporting just about every meme of global warming, resource scarcity, big government, government regulation, taxation and control, resource allocation, wage and price controls, fiat money, whateverthefuck else is bought and paid for by the unholy alliance of corporatism and big government.
I know Boulder all too well.
Did something "bad" happen to you in Boulder? Do you want to talk about it?
Compounding interest doesn't require quantum mechanics to explain (unless you talk to a banker and they'll try to make it seem like it does).
No, nothing bad.
My avocation is physics, particularly quantum mechanics and electrical universe theory.
And Boulder is a bunch of fucking commies teaching the wrote history and policies of Big Government.
Nothing bad happened to Knukles.
Something very bad happened to the people in Boulder.
Interesting you bring this up. Gordon Duff has been talking about how they have been corrupting the Physics curriculum after WWII and he specifically mentioned magnetic force. Colleagues of his have been naming names in Boulder and tying them to unspeakable acts. It's coming together slowly.
Electric Universe theory is one I have been researching. But magnetic force? Would that tie into that?
Electro-Magnetics
The electronic universe's adhesion is by definition a function of the magnetic effects generated by electronic forces.
Electricity alone is kind of redundant and meaningless.
Must be some luciferians and financial types from Boulder reading this thread.
All your cleverness and education isn't making you immune from your human weakness of losing perspective -- which is typically triggered by a reaction to s strong Emotional Stimulus that causes Reason to be largely bypassed. In this case, you've lost Perspective, because...
You and all other posters here have overlooked one key consideration. Oil is NOT JUST FOR ENERGY. OIL IS USED AS A PRECIOUS* MATERIAL, TO MAKE OTHER THINGS: FERTILIZERS, PESTICIDES and... [drumroll, please] PLASTICS & PHARMACEUTICALS. Modern life would virtually collapse and regress back ~ 100 years, if we did not use oil for plastics.
In the final analysis, it is BOTH the consumption of Precious Energy and Precious Materials that matters to our modern lifestyle. Whatever country or group of countries (Alliance) holds both in the next few decades, Wins.
* "Precious" in the sense, to build and maintain a society's lifestyle, which requires available and affordable Inputs of Energy and Materials. "Precious" goes beyond PMs, and has relative or situational value, e.g. Water, arable Land, Oil, Biomass. Think of the Desert Island analogy, where you won't give a damn about heaps of gold.
Revolutions don't start because the Peasants/Masses lack gold or silver -- they start because they lack "the stuff of life" and the hope of getting it. Oil is part of "Stuff of Modern Life". Gold is precious, but Oil is more precious.
p.s. If the West (US) wanted to, they could wipe out the Gulf States (KSA, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE) and take all the gas and oil they wanted, w/o sharing it with anyone else (China, India, etc). The reason they have not done so, is because the West lacks the Will to do so -- in the form of a true Autocratic/Totalitarian Power. But that may change some day.
I started in physics, but was not smart enough and switched to engineering. I am in awe of physicists :)
Here go read this paper and humor us about it - Kinetic Theory of Quantum Gravity by Charles Brush. The Aether is REAL folks, we only need to tap it.
Knuckles: My avocation is physics, particularly quantum mechanics and electrical universe theory.
How can a physicist be so ignorant? The same way my last HOD, a superb vascular surgeon, could be so dumb abiut evolution. Because he was a fundamentalist Christian he denied it utterly though he loved the molecular bology I brought to the dept. I didn't argue with him becuase I had fun doing the research that we both profited from and because evolution and nature don't give a rat's ass if the whole of humanity screams in raging, blind denial. There are far more people like you than people like me and thus we're doomed.
Just out of curiiosity, how do you earn a crust?
Wether right or wrong your rant does nothing to invalidate that talk on exponetial growth.
I know. I know. There isn't enough oil. Blah blah blah. You people have been spouting this for 30 years. The bastards can't find enough big goddman holes to store the shit. There is plenty of oil for the foreseeable future. Keep pimping this story to jack up the price assholes!
60 years.
You understand why America's golden age hit the wall in the early 1970s? It was because in 1956 Hubbert predicted American oil production would peak ~1965 - 1970. He was almost exactly correct, it peaked in 1971 and everything went to shit after that date because you had to import your energy... From the Muslim nutters in the middle east no less. The history of the last 40 years is predicated on that change.
css- that is not logical. If it peaked in '71 then it would take time for the peak to drop. The real reason for the 70's depression was that we went off the gold standard.
It doesn't have to actually drop, all it has to do is not increase exponentially any longer[1] and It's related to going off the gold standard. Why did America have to come off the gold standard?
Trade deficit. Boom. 1971 it goes negative as you start importing oil.
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gands.pdf
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUS1&f=M
You're paying for imports in gold. Can't have that. Pay in bits of printed paper instead and back it up with big sticks.
The writing was on the wall well before 1971 though, it was obvious by 1965 to anyone who was paying attention.
[1] Banks credit/debt requires exponentially increasing growth. Without fail. Every year. If the energy to increase production doesn't arrive then you don't get your exponential increase.
There's no doubt that the need for importing oil large scale prompted the US to go off the gold standard. The bond purchase deal with the Saudis was a part of that. However, since then fiat printing has become much bigger than just a tool to get free oil. It has become a global control tool and enabled the massive confiscation of wealth by the financial elite that we have seen in the last 20 years. A lot of that is because the reserve currency status of the dollar, which started after WW2 but was cemented by the oil trade. Fiat as a control tool for wealth transfer and economic and social control can also be seen in Europe with the Euro. No peak oil needed there to get things rolling.
This misses what happened in the eurozone - and is the real cause of the current energy "shortage"
Ireland lost its surplus energy (basic purchasing power) when we joined Europe.
We entered a deflation in the 80s (first euro depression) and the banks used this extraction to build "assets" we could not use.
This surplus and lack of purchasing power to buy local goods is the current cause of the global economic crisis.
Real Irish , Spainish etc living standards were much higher in the early 90s rather then today.
Even though energy use per person was much less.
The banks effectively engaged in a extreme scarcity excercise during eurozone entry.
The banks now have a problem as the houses already built are in reality very cheap while any further construction is expensive.
The banks must therefore try to maintain the value of its assets at the expense of local purchasing power.
Its therefore not a energy crisis.
its a banking double entry crisis - socilaized on to the masses.
Unless countries like Africa, India and China would have a DECREASE IN SURPLUS POPULATION.
A virus will do... or 2 or 3...
Andsuddenly.. Not only does a closed market dies off but also a strain on supply of energy.
You get far more bang for each bullet or virion by killing the wasteful pigs in:
Iceland, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, Kuwait, Brunei Darussalam, Oman, Luxembourg, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Canada, United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Finland.
Over 6,000 kg of oil equivalent PER person PER year. in each of those countries.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?order=wbapi_data_v...
Demonization of 'evil' consumers of energy by gross consumption is irrational and naive. Factoring productivity and what countries do with the energy they consume makes more sense and gives a rational perspective.
Example, if an average American consumes 3X the energy than an average Ecuadorean, but can produce 40X more output, then who is the real energy wasting hog? If global customers don't want America to use energy they can stop buying our food and products and make their own shit. But they'd starve.
Costa Rica, Zimbabwe, and the hypocrite wannabe 'Green' countries can't make what the world needs. If US and China didn't do it, the little loudmouth countries would be consuming and polluting more inefficiently, and with dirtier energy just to pick up slack trying to feed their own people, egs., N. Korea and East Germany (before reunification), Venezuela, Cuba, and all the other little watermelon socialist countries.
Americans may consume the greatest amount of energy as a country, they are also at or near top of countries in per capita productivity and greatest GDP along with China. All the greenies and 70's Disco M'fuckers combined can't do that.
Define Output.
If you back derivatives and financialization out of US output how much is left to justify over 6,000 kg per person per year?
Look at the other "wasteful" countries. The list is littered with net oil exporters.
Protecting waste, fraud and abuse through statistical manipulation is the BLS's job.
What we really have a problem with is the exponential growth of boots on our neck.
If only we could invent an energy source that ran on ground-up nazi overseers.
If only we ended the double-entry accounting system that allows banks to create money out of thin air when they made out loans, our prosperity would not be predicated on perpetual growth sustained by continual buying of iProducts. Money created free of debt by the federal government, and spent out by Congress in accordance with the Constitution, would solve our problems. For example, it helped to keep the consumer price index relatively stable ca. 1860-1970 (with a brief and sharp rise during WWII). After banks began creating money en masse in the 1970s, guaranteed by the Federal Reserve with continual quantitative easing and secular declines in the federal funds rate, the consumer price index reached sky-high levels and has not come down since.
peak oil theory is a myth from the mid fifties dreamt up to raise price-per-barrel, and has been taught in schools eversince. [as testified by an ex head of US dept of Education in the fifties]
Do some research on abiotic oil .& draw your own conclusions.
& ponder these facts ;
Some empty wells have mysteriously refilled.
Biomass has aways been created y-o-y on this planet since temps stabilised.
Some fields have projected quantities that are wildly out. Some fields yet to be found.
Recent improvements in imaging tech allow more finds [such as recent Russia find].
Like the global warming hoax [now rebranded as climate change], there is more to this than the illusion implies.... as always.
It isn't mysterious. You did calculus at high school? Hubbert's peak [2] is the first order derivative of the logistic function[1]. It is about rate of production, not the total amount of oil extracted. If you leave a well which doesn't produce fast enough, some of the remaining oil will seep back into the well. A well is never 100% empty, it is just too slow producing to be worthwhile.
Oil field finds peaked ~1968 [3], we are not finding them at anything like the rate we did then, and the ones we do find are difficult to access.
Simply. It's time to switch away from oil. Improve the insulation on your property and install solar panels. Start saving to buy a battery powered car. Plant a productive garden.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_linearization
[3] http://wolfatthedoor.org.uk/chartpages/d/d1oildiscavproj.html
yes, i agree- with you, and good post btw....
however the premis of my post was to point out some topics to think about, as the current oil perception model may be flawed. That more than 30yrs ago we were told it was going to run out, and now we are told in 30yrs it will run out, etc.... spot any anomaly ? Not saying oil use is good. Just aware that alt views are worthy of some attention [abiotic oil].
Not sure that the energy balance is so good on current solar tech, which in theory should be THE energy source. As it is for most of the natural world.
I'm sure it will be the next big energy provider when several generations have advanced solar-tech performance.
Meanwhile this week: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-10-26/news/55446682_1_... http://www.ogj.com/oil-exploration-and-development/discoveries.html [which lists guadalupe, north sea, china, brazil, all as new mid-to-large finds....]...
Simply put, Bullshit
Example A
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/developers-to-spend-15bn-constructing-3000-homes-by-dublin-airport-30692257.html
They are planning to build more houses in Ireland (in the above case 3,000)
There is currently 8,000 empty houses in Cork city (not burbs) alone.
On a national account basis any asset construction extracts from basic purchasing power.
So the more houses they build the less the ability of the irish to purchase them.
There is simply a chronic lack of basic purchasing power within Europe - that is the only crisis.
21% of current oil consumption in Ireland is Jet Kerosene - this energy is therefore not used to supplly local demand of any sort.
(Tourists are a form of export)
As can be seen a euro country must engage in extreme mercantile operations - i.e destroying capital so as to access tokens.
Well, if the EBOLA does not quite have the effect our masters are hoping for, perhaps they could go this route??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIQ21m1Ks08
This is a distribution crisis
Not a energy crisis.
It does not make sense that so much is controlled by so few, while so many have so little.
@MsCreant
The Big bank covets other peoples wealth and Happiness.
If it cannot have it - it must destroy it.
They know nothing else but concentration , not distribution.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/former-model-ordered-to-give-bank-the-keys-to-luxury-home-30661792.html
In the above case they will throw out somebody and replace her with someone else. (what does that achieve??)
That new person must then burn a huge amount of capital doing pointless work so they can afford to live in such a place..............and so it goes on and on and on until eventually it cannot.
The irish petri proves to the world there is no shortage.
Almost all of the energy is used chasing scarce money.
The real irish standard of living crashed on entry into euroland.
People began serving the machines.
That was over 30 years ago now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5XP409pxNg
Malthus
Get rid of the Environazi's energy problem solved.
if there were true free markets, there would never be any 'crisis' as all of these are manufacturered and somene (hedge funds, soverign wealth funds, Priave equity, i-banks) are all trading on the insider info and profiting off it.
It's a good business to be in.
~DipshitMiddleClassWhiteKid
Sustainability means planning our future in a way that we do not set ourselves up to crash and burn at some future date. Long-term planning has not been something politicians excel at or are even good at. Our system is geared at getting politicians reelected and fulfilling the most pressing needs of today.
Things like profit, greed, and quenching our unrelinquishing desire for growth are placed in front of longer term issues and needs. Mapping out a logical and sustainable long-term plan requires delving into some rather hefty philosophical questions like what brings real happiness. More on this important topic in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/planning-sustainable-future-for-mankind.html.
Google the following: LENR Andrea Rossi. Click on the e-catworld link and start reading the blog posts. We are on the cusp of a new revolution in energy that will redraw the geopolitical map and make all other means of generating electricity obsolete.
I'd like to believe that but they need to do an independent test that doesn't smell like the head on a tuna boat.
https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/the-e-cat-cold-fusion-or-scientifi...
EBOLA – CIA Project Codename MKNAOMI & Hi-Tech Assassinations
In 1948, Henry Kissinger, a 23-year-old American intelligence officer, recruited Nazi expatriates to serve in top positions in American military, aerospace, and biological science and medicine. Twenty years later, he left Harvard’s esteemed faculty and resigned a lucrative position as Nelson Rockefeller’s foreign policy attache’ to become President Nixon’s closest advisor and director of the National Security Council. Seeking alternatives to tactical nuclear weapons to bolster America’s “diplomacy” abroad, the paranoid and egomaniacal Kissinger quickly ordered the Army’s Chief of Staff to requisition $10 million from Congress for the development and testing of EBOLA & AIDS-like viruses. Within ten years, the AIDS and Ebola epidemics erupted coincidentally in the regions of Africa ravaged by CIA military covert operations also ordered by Kissinger.
In 1984, Dr. Robert Gallo, of the National Cancer Institute, claimed credit for discovering the AIDS virus. He announced it most likely originated from a monkey virus which spontaneously mutated and naturally jumped species. Dr. Gallo was a biological weapons contractor for the CIA’s top secret “Project: MKNAOMI,” and was paid to produce and test EBOLA, AIDS-like viruses as early as 1970.
EBOLA – CIA Project Codename MKNAOMI & Hi-Tech Assassinations
I'm saving my own farts. Should be very valuable in the future. #fingerscrossed
Peak Oil
Peak Oil is a long long long long way away! If it even exists. Seriously take a good hard look at how much oil we use - it is staggering. Everything plastic you see comes from oil, vinyl flooring, bottles, cars, manufacturing, energy production etc. Given the amount of oil we use it should already be past peak oil.
Do you really think if we were running out of oil we would still be manufacturing so much plastic? we could easily subsitute to glass, wood, aluminum.
The old myth that oil came from decomposing dinosaurs and other organic matter simply isn't true, and it's my belief that the price of oil has been falling since the BP oil disaster - Why? Because BP let the cat of the bag, the oil that came from that well was the pure good stuff and it gets made within the earths crust....ergo no peak oil. The only truth to the oil situation is we have already got the easily accessible stuff and the deep down oil is costly to bring to the surface (and risky) but there is no such thing as peak oil.
I remember hearing an oil expert about 10 years ago explaining that they know about enough reserves for the next 50 years (even factoring consumption growth rates) the only problem was getting to some of it. This is prior to renewable energy taking the pressure off consumption.
Maybe not all those other times buy this time for sure, Professor Malthus!
So, just change the nature of the global economy so that it does not depend on growth.
Problem solved.
Oh wait, that would make bankers powerless...
Speaking of "energy," I repeat one of my favourite quotes:
http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/NWO/silent_weapons_quiet_wars.htm
Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars
"Energy is recognized as the key to all activity on earth. Natural science is the study of the sources and control of natural energy, and social science, theoretically expressed as economics, is the study of the sources and control of social energy. Both are bookkeeping systems: mathematics. Therefore, mathematics is the primary energy science. And the bookkeeper can be king if the public can be kept ignorant of the methodology of the bookkeeping. ... In this structure, credit, presented as a pure element called 'currency,' has the appearance of capital, but is in effect negative capital. Hence, it has the appearance of service, but is in fact, indebtedness or debt. ... if balanced in no other way, will be balanced by the negation of population (war, genocide)... They must eventually resort to war to balance the account, because war ultimately is merely the act of destroying the creditor ... War is therefore the balancing of the system by killing the true creditors (the public ...) the economy has been transformed into a guided missile on target."
Although Chris Martenson's Crash Course is worthwhile watching for the sake of its presentation of the basic concepts, I feel that is grossly understates the degree to which the real economy is based on ENFORCED FRAUDS, which makes the real future extremely problematic, and probably WAY WORSE than Martenson presents!
For several years I have been collecting some relevant articles in these two threads:
Alternative Energies & Society Adapted to Them?
Overshoot in a nutshell
My current conclusions are that despite there being an abundance of possible creative alternatives, which could be integrated, our civilization is actually controlled by systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, to the degree that society is CRIMINALLY INSANE.
Martenson touches upon that problem tangentially when he points out that the government is massively subsidizing some of the stupidest possible alternatives, like ethanol from corn. Of course, that fits into the real history that had things like alcohol prohibition be implemented just in time to wipe out the potential of ethanol, which might have otherwise been rationally developed. That illustrated the general patterns that, the more one actually examines the real history, the more painfully obvious it becomes that our society is almost totally controlled by systems of huge lies, backed by lots of violence.
To understand human civilizations as energy systems actually takes understanding how and why those ended up being the same as the application of the principles and methods of organized crime. Human societies are controlled by their most labile components, which are the most dishonest and violent people. Human societies go along their path of least resistance, which is the path of least morality. Attempting to discuss how human civilization's energy systems "should" be developed tends to be done in ways where most of the people doing so deliberately ignore how and why what really happened was due to civilization being the manifestation of fractal patterns of organized crime. Furthermore, since that is the real way that things happened, the path we are on is for human civilization to become more and more criminally insane, until it goes through some series of psychotic breakdowns.
Ironically, it is practically impossible to have a rational public debate about human civilization as an energy system, since there are no practical political ways to have any kind of objective judgment about what would be best to do, because what is actually done is determined by the operations of the applications of the methods of organized crime through the political processes. That is why every decision is actually made on the basis of the history of backing up deceits with destruction, and directed through fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems based on enforced frauds.
It was NOT an "accident" that both alcohol and pot prohibition deformed the history of how the industrial revolutions developed, so that the best sustainable alternatives were criminalized at crucial points, so that those could not compete with other businesses. In that context, one would expect that the oscillating social insanities would swing from one stupid extreme to the other. Paradoxically, Martenson's Crash Course episodes are classic illustrations of the ways that the most important points are deliberately ignored, because fully facing the facts that the foundation of the political economy is enforced frauds, which are due to the triumphant application of the methods of organized crime to the political processes, so that the outcomes were a civilization manifesting runaway criminal insanities, does NOT fit into any kind of superficial optimistic presentations regarding how to understand those facts, in ways which can be prepared for, nor sanely adapted to.
In fact, our civilization is criminally insane, in ways which are automatically getting worse, faster ... while there are naturally no ways to have any rational public debates about that basic situation. The core irony is that those who tend to discuss the energy problems of civilization tend to deliberately disregard what actually happens if one thoroughly applies the concepts of general energy systems to human civilizations, because the results of doing that reveal how and why human civilizations actually operate according to the principles and methods of organized crime, to develop in ways which represent the path of least action, which is the human path of least morality.
It is generally impossible to have any saner public debates about alternative energy systems, and how those could be integrated, because that can not be done without the central core concept being the death controls that back up the debt controls. However, such a sensible attitude has to face the facts that the death controls have developed to be done through the maximum possible deceits, while the debt controls are done through the maximum possible frauds. Those central social facts do NOT contradict basic energy laws, however, they are understood in the most backwards possible ways by the most people.
A naive analysis. Price of energy and in paticular oil will be governed by interlocking complexities from 1) governments with such resouces that have evolving protectionism 2) logistics and distribution that can be disrupted/destroyed by skirmishes 3) capital investments in evolving instability 4) basic demands from governments including their cronies 5) rigged markets. 6) capital investments against all the instability.
No one global force is in control today. Until the Predators set themselves on each other than only will you have the real price of energy and from it just one input to potential glbal growth.
Meantime, if you want to get involved just trade the blips.
Real economy will stagnate and eventually shrink. Nominally, with paper inflation of >>2% they fabricate some sort of "growth" to keep the Ponzi running as long as possible.
This introduction... Let's just say, with all due respect, is total cr4p... "our global economy depends on... ...exponential growth" and "in order to grow... ...an ever-increasing input supply of affordable energy and resources from the natural world."
Average global growth is 2-3% normally, that's linear, not exponential... And what do we mean by growth?
Population growth maybe 1-2% and the rate is slowing, people eat less as they age anyway, and human evolution over the last 100 plus years has reduced overall calorie intake by about half, unless you are gravitationally challenged (read over-weight). Wal-mart must wonder how their customers are consuming less food... Easy, just eat what your body actually needs and cook it using fresh, local produce... Bingo, much less consumption.
In addition, heat engine efficiency is peaking (about 33% according to the Carnot cycle), however, when you add electrical power, such as hybrids and all-electric motor transport, the efficiency approaches 100%... But of course you will ask... Where does the lecky come from? A dirty, inefficient coal power station, right? Not really, as time and technology moves on, things get cleaner and easier, to a point, not to mention Fast Breeder nuclear power (very low waste residues).
China is now the #1 solar panel producer, and prices for panels have dropped through the floor (I see prices for panels reducing by 25% per annum on average), whilst efficiencies have risen ( a percent or two per year), and of course once the panel is made, you get free energy for 25 plus years and soon to be 100 year life-span. Couple this solar energy with a heat pump (basically a fridge running backwards), and you boost efficiency by 400%, by sucking heat from the ground or surrounding air.
It will not be long before the same thermodynamic principle of using a bit of energy to pull even more from the surrounding environment, will be applied to cars, or to the production of electricity that they will use. What you can do with fluid systems, you can normally do with electronics and visa version. You can create a simple programmable computer with plumbing components and water, by the way, including a colour display.
So, we will need less oil and resources and the reason for the current scramble for oil and gas, is not demand, but control of supply, to keep the price high and the markets rigged, as demand falls, like they do with diamonds et al.
So whilst the West tries to tax, regulate and rig the renewables environment, the Chinese and Far East will focus on this technology, make it cheaper and more efficient. There is more than enough energy from the sun and earth to let everyone drive or hovver around in the next generation of electric vehicle, unfortunately, the powers that be, will not allow it, for now, but I suspect economic necessity from the masses will force them back.
Heat pumps are rare in the far north where temps get below -20 F or more in the winter.
Looking for cheaper solar panels (if not taxed too heavy from U.S. govt) from China.
Painted solar panels promise this.
Does NOT change the "cruxt" of his point which was / is that "compounding" is an exponential function and simply put, eventually goes vertical!
If I may, I would like to share a personal experience from my university engineering tutelidge 30 years past in retelling my professors' tale of the French Pond Lilly - an example in Exponential Functions:
The French Pond Lilly doubles in size every day. In 30 days, the Original ONE French Pond Lilly sufficiently multiplies such that they cover the entirety of the Hypothetical Pond killing all life beneath. On what day does the French Pond Lilly cover HALF the Pond? <<<Think about this for one moment before reading answer below - especially those non-enginnering / scientific types who have not had the opportunity to fail that test at university as most of the rest of we scientists did>>>> This story is an excellent example of how our society, and we humans in general, are so oblivious to significant, life altering events around us - unless and until personally experienced for first, or tenth, time.
ANSWER: On day 29, ONE DAY prior to the catastrophic event that will kill all pond life, is the point at which the "30-day" French Pond Lilly only covers one half the pond. As humans, and even early university engineers and scientists in-training, we fail the "exponential test" because most events in our lives are "linear events". In the French Pond Lilly story, had the growth rate of the Lilly been "linear", as is most in our human lives, it would have been DAY 15 (as most I expect answered) when one would expect the Lilly to have Half-Covered the Pond. As humans and generally procrastinators, we don't get too excited with dangerous events until some time later in the life cycle of event, ie, wait until we get to half life or so to even consider the issue. In the case of the Exponential Lilly, if we had waited until the half-life (Day 29) to do anything, we would have had exactly ONE DAY until D-Day.
Cheers......
Albert A. Bartlett (1923-2013), RIP......
Population of Europe managed to stabilize. Temperatur that was heading towards apocalyptic global cooling managed to stabilize. You can draw trends all day, but there are factors not visible in charts. There's a ton of curves that look for a while like expotential growth that bend out of it if you look further in time.
This part about expotential growth - well first of all that's GDP growth, so it can be achieved with better managment of what you have. I've got a computer and a bunch of products that I'll consumer over a time of one year - and yet a product made with this investment might have massive value without any new resources dug up from the ground. Than, GDP might be used right now, but what is really important is actual satisfaction brought up by gross domestic consumption. This again might be sometimes increased by "more stuff" but might also be increased by better use of the stuff that's already here.
Again, animals and plants don't invent much and they are pretty rigidly bound by instincts (more so than homo sapiens). Sure, while conditions stay more or less similar activity is frequently quite similar too (so you've got a predictible curve for a while) but with different situations adaptations come - and they come in rapidly.
Still, I do expect a 2nd great depression (long list of reasons) and think we'll have a bumpy road, I'm just fed up with "how large is our island" meme over and over again. Humanity has broken out of so many "unavoidable" limits before it is actually more consistent to expect the unexpected than think we're just gonna collectively run into a wall and bash our brains out on it.