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And The Brand New Fastest Appreciating US City Is... (Hint: Not Cleveland)
For those living in Cleveland, where home prices rose a tiny 0.8% compared to last year (a number which is sliding every month), the latest dead housing cat bounce is almost over, and with the release of the September, or at the latest, October numbers, expect the first Top 20 US MSA to go back into annual price decline for the first time in two years. Those living in America's other cities are safe, for now. Then again, while still rising at a comfortable upper-single digit pace, all California cities as well as Las Vegas, are about to hit a brick wall, as the Y/Y pace of price increases is now grinding to a halt.
This brings us to the most rapidly appreciating US city, which this month is no longer on the west coast (sorry San Francisco and Las Vegas), but deep south on the Eastern seaboard, namely Miami, Florida.
How much of this is due to Latin Americans billionaires and oligarchs rushing to park their (tax-free) cash away from either Argentina, Venezuela or Brazil is for now unknown (now that the Chinese exodus in California is over) but one can be sure that the mansion tax that started in London, moved to New York, is very soon going to pay Miami a visit next.
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"It's a great time to buy or sell a house in Cleveland," - NAR
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2006/11/nar-has-much-more-work-to-do.html
It's always a good time to go TU on your ARM. (Flashback to HousingPANIC).
Bouncers in strip clubs frown on that type of behavior.
So I've heard...
It's the 1980's all over again in Miami, except this time the drug money comes from offshore...
All that money and its still a dump once you get a mile from the beach.
Tehran is far nicer.
I'm making an ETF to put my house in so I can speculate more easily on its price. You know, enable me to act on these ZH trading tips.
looks good to me....my "bug-out" town isn't anywhere even close to any places listed on here or even any mid-range cities either. Prices are nice and low...things are quiet, huntin' and fishin's outstanding. And lotsa hot chicks.
(and sorry....but I'm not tellin' where) ;-)
And lotsa hot chicks-
and most of 'em are yer cousins. "If the good Lord haddna wanted ya to marry yer cousins He woodna made 'em so dang gud lookin!" -An old saying in my family
wrong....don't be jealous. No relatives within hundreds of miles ;-)
nice try though. lol
Detroit ????
Credibility Fail
+1
Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland? This chart is meaningless.
Like everything else these days, it also appears that any housing data is complete bullshit anymore.
Actually, the money is still domestic from what I can see. Drugs have always been an effective means of extracting wealth. The money is just too good for Wall Street and the CIA to leave it on the table. It is so incredibly lucrative and the market is so reliable that as a business model it is nieve to imagine we could get rid of it. All you need is to sell criminalization and violence as a way to escalate the problem into the hands of security and police systems with have a monopoly on legal violence, this closes the loop extracting wealth from the difficult to tax urban poor, moves it through Mexico, Columbia or Afghanistan where Drug Lords act out the "war" part, the cash notes move to the security forces and disappear (are diverted to black ops and other "important" adventures needed to maintain the state of fear and arms manufacture). Voila.
"It's the perfect business. It costs a dime to make, we sell it for a dollar, and it's habit forming!"
-Gomez Addams, 1965
ARM= Always Reversable Mortgage
Whoever wrote this report needs to learn how to spell San Diego, which means Whales vagina!
....agree to disagree.
It's the LeBron effect.
I'm taking my talents to Cleveland
If you had ever spent any time in Cleveland, money would not be an incentive to stay...
Cleveland's most redeeming quality: It's not Detroit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZzgAjjuqZM
>"It's a great time to buy or sell a house in Cleveland," - NAR
It's an 8 year old article.
Exactly.
Is history starting to rhyme?...
Nah, Detroit seems to be a better market. Unreal.
I see Detroit is doing well. Although when the average home sells for $10,000 a $100 increase in value is a significant change. Perhaps we should have a mansion tax there too.
Yes, and those obscene profits must be taxed!
I wonder will they change the street signs from ebonics to chinese?
Detroit is the new Phoenix.
Detroit is getting ready for a major redevelopment. The dude who owns little ceasers and all those Detroit teams has been secretly buying up all those $1 houses and now has a big enough chunk to put in a new arena.
They tore down a bunch of blight to put in new baseball & football facilities a few years back, this time it's hockey. Plus they're gonna di-blight a bunch of land around all these new facilities and turn it into an "areana district"
They're gonna tear down the old hockey facility and expand the convention center. Throw in a few river front condos at that site too.
Still running with the old paradigm, but it will clear out a bunch of blight and build a pretty solid core of non-residential, family-friendly places.
I’m near The D.
The two problems I see with any redevelopment is the 350,000 illiterate folks will still need managing. These people need access to resources that must be centralized because they rely on buses. Typically, this is a downtown district. I see the “Arena District” going to low-income housing and gated off from the arena within 10 years.
And Detroit is still using other people’s money. The BK offloaded some a few billion from debt and some ‘assets’ to the state taxpayers – parks and what-not, but Detroit will still be running a deficit. I think Detroit is borrowing a Billion Dollars just to get this new plan started.
And the security downtown is private. And the residents are all subsidized.
noun
noun: illiterate; plural noun: illiterates
1.
a person who is unable to read or write.
Meh, turn 'm into Soylent Black.
Many people like to go down to the Ghetto and feed the homeless. The do-gooders feed the homeless as if the homeless are pigeons or squirrels. Pets, if you will.
I’ve been down there and watched this on more than one occasion.
How do they plan on getting rid of what caused the decay in the first place?
Yeah, moving the metal is one thing....
Major cities increasing 6-10% ... that's pretty fuckin decent I'd say, but I'm sure it's just shy of Goldilocks 'more QE' range.
More excuses for the Local assessor Nazi to pull more of your losing wages right out of your pocket to give to those who do nothing all day...I'd call that a win for sure.
True. Funny how all this looted wealth ends up in the billionaires pockets playing bridge in Maui.
finally getting 2 percent on the first 10k and 5 percent on 300k(home). is it real? well yea cause the home will market for 350 and sell in a heart beat. do i feel safe, sound and comfortable, fuck no! thanks zirp off, zirp you and the zirpping horse ya zirpped...
With appreciation rates well above inflation, idiotic 3% down payments were needed why?
Because appreciation rates above inflation means that housing is becoming less affordable, especially if you are living on the margins of insolvency.
Though given nobody else has any skin in the game other than Uncle Sugar, why should anyone give a fuck, right?
Great point. Most people haven't figured out that the government's attempt to make homes more 'affordable' means lowering the down payment or monthly payment which, perversely, has only led to higher prices making things unaffordable in terms of total cost. Applies to college, too.
The entire system is a joke.
Until the median income can buy the median priced house, the market remains distorted. Unfortunately, the median income has been flat-to-down for more than 20 years, during which time house prices did a moonshot. This is not "growth," it's mispricing of credit.
boom, followed by bust. thanks fed, for instable markets, zirp off, zirppers...
housing used to be the main stay of middle class and place to live tracking Printing(hedging inflation), but now, ha just another manipulation tool used by policy fuck heads to tought there krugman style control.
fucking cocksucking fuck faced motherfucking basterds(is that what you were thinking too?)
The "cost" of living in Miami is too high. I would never want to live there. Traffic rivals New York.
Miami Beach is nice though.
I hate Florida
Heat, Huimidity and Bugs
Crazy old people driving and the "Furriners."
Too damn many Furriners don't espeeaka da Engiish
New reality game: find the center of high culture in Florida.
Florida = Jooish heaven.
(at least some parts of it.)
I hear there is culture in the yoghurt.
Florida is great. I'd downvote you more than once if I could.
Hard to beat Naples, FL. Lotsa money, beautiful surroundings.
And no jobs which pay a decent wage if you actually need to work there.
not to mention the furrinacators...
Not everywhere is bad. Avoid Miami like the plague. Same with jacksonville and the stpete/Tampa/Clearwater area. St. John's county and Flagler county(at Augustine, crescent beach, Flagler beach are pretty nice, and have a mostly Caucasian and native population. Same with Ocala, it's a pretty good place, nice country feel to it, lots of farms. Can't help ya with the heat and humidity though. My native GA is the same way.
Moving to Hallandale next week from Dallas. I know, but it will make the wife happy.
Dont worry, Im renting. Dont know enough about Florida real-estate to waste money on this.
Here's all you need to know to play the Florida real estate game: buy a tent. Spend a few nights on the ground in front of a realtor's/developer's office. Move into your new home with virtually no money down. Oops, your mortgage interest rate adjusts upward. Sheriff arrives with document signed by Linda Green and puts you out on the street. Move back into tent (you remembered to save the tent, right?).
I up voted you because FL is terrible. Don't move here.
knuckles, you are just scratching the surface of what is wrong with FL.
Its loaded with dopers who came down for rehab and never left. All the crooks that are too inept to run a scam anywhere else seem to end up here to run one. The state, county and local governments are TOTALLY CORRUPT
http://ginsbergblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/dial-poem-poets.html
Err, knukles, you be da foreigner in Miami... Entiende?
The Greater Miami area has been fueled by investments from the South American middle class, Brazil being a large piece. That seems to be slowing.
Had the TV on the other day while doing something else and one of those house buying shows was on. Watched a married couple look at a one bedroom loft (the bedroom was raised, so not really a bedroom) in a shitty industrial part of San Francisco. It was a crappy place, and it was $750K. Anyone buying into that market is making a gigantic mistake.
"yeah but they can't make more land"...
Trying to remember all the other things people have said to me about property there. "Money is cheap right now, get it while you can." But it's debt, not money...
I've heard the saying that they can't make more land, but that overlooks all the swamps that were filled in to create habitable land in Florida. I live in Broward County, about a mile from the ocean. Beneath my house is sand. Nothing but sand; layers of landfill. At 8 feet down I have (non-potable) water. Maybe Ft. Lauderdale can't expand to the East, but they sure as heck did make a lot of dry land, until they ran up against the Everglades. Personally, I preferred the panhandle, from Ft. Walton Beach and eastward. Culturally it's more like southern Alabama. Broward is New York City South, with a hint of Latin America. Miami-Dade is where the refugees from dysfunctional Latin American countries come for escape, and then elect dysfunctional government because that's apparently their culture.
>> the panhandle
North Central Florida here. I can't imagine a nicer place to live. Moderate climate, fertile soil, plentiful water resources, not crowded, low taxes. People talking about what a hell hole Florida is make me laugh. The only problem with Florida is it's more crowded than it used to be but that's anywhere that's remotely liveable.
What are you talking about, they both work for Twitter.
The guy was a city planner, the woman worked from home as an account rep for a small tech firm. Their household income couldn't have been more than $150K.
In that case they should go ahead with it. Nothing like buying a home you can't afford and have it ruin your health and your life.
Wake up people!!! Happiness comes from within.
So if they both work in San Francisco, what do you suggest that they do? Commute 2 - 3 hours each way? Rent for $3500 per month?
My solution was to leave the Bay Area, but if folks want to stay and pay the man, that's their decision.
What do they do if their jobs pay them 150K and require them to buy a 750k shitbox? They probably would be better off riding the rails (costs 0K) and being hobos (pays 0K).
GTFO of Cleveland.
Tell that to LaBron
No doubt the final collapse will begin in Silicon Valley where the largest property bubble in history exists. The tech I-Toy insanity will end abruptly and those making $100k will be lucky to find work at McDs. House prices will plunge as fear takes over from greed. It will be something to see.
And it HAS to happen at some point.
Why would the "tech I-Toy insanity" end abruptly? Continuation is more likely than change. There's no catalyst to end it abruptly. We already see that people would rather have an iPhone than eat better food.
The entire place is run on VC money and stock floats. Many / most of those companies don't actually make money. If that funding dries up it's over, and it will end abruptly.
>> Why
Because he's not on the train and he wants it to crash. Sil Valley will be rocking long after he's sprouting daiseys.
When people have to choose between buying bread and buying an iPhone, it will be over. But maybe that is 20 years away. Enjoy the descent, I guess.
Sure, and AMZN is a great buy
Like another said. The place lives entirely on VC cash. If consumers continue to have their DescIncom eroded away VC are going to become more selective in the models they fund and the town will wither.
Hey! Don't knock the " if it's Brown, flush it down" town. ;-)
And they say there is no inflation....look at these housing prices.
LOL Detroit.
Stupid people. Don't they know most of those places have bad football teams? I'm not surprised by Miami. It's having a takeover by Russian's.
Miami traffic is horrid. Anything outside the few downtown streets is mega ghetto. Plus, there are no good jobs on par with CA or Boston. Plus, the only inhabitable months are Oct-Mar.
Florida - It's all sub-prime!
Anyone who hasa mortgage for a house is a fucking sucker
Its a middle class craze, to step on the property ladder.
And all the money's worthless
The town is trite and exaggerated
The food is turning and the water is poisoned
And it's rotting your teeth right out of your head,
sight and hearing have quickly faded
Your gut's expanding, your hairline's receding
The sores are opening and the cancer's spreading
And the antibiotics aren't working,
all the drugs just all the drugs are strangely sobering
And the skeletons in your closet have opened the door and then started talking
Just like Miami!
Miami!
Fucking Miami
Miami!
Delectable. Delicious. Detroit.
Miami already has a yearly 2% real estate tax !!
My Centennial, CO home (suburb south of Denver) is going on the market next week. My realtor says it will be only home in our subdivision which have been going at ask or better within days or weeks at outset. I will walk with 100K windfall in just two years. I have about 1350 square feet of garden I reclaimed from lawn including raised beds - all with irrigation. Highly productive land. Fed my family well over the course of two years. Someone with half a brain will jump on the place knowing what's in store. Time to cash out because a mighty bubble she is a brewing in CO and when it goes pop, it's going to be a doozy.
Hope you get your price, First.
I'm south of you, by the zoo in COS, and can't talk my spouse into selling. Putting up a fence, now, to protect property from deer/bear/whatever so I can put in raised beds next year. It is more difficult to grow on a steep slope, at about 7k, than "down" in Centennial, but I'll give it a whirl!
Again, best to you in your selling. May it go quickly.
Appreciate that. I have become a master of urban gardening. The rabbits are a huge problem in Centennial. They breed like, well, rabbits but have been farily content to feed on my lawn which doesn't bother me in the least as I have been chipping away at the water sucking waste of time and money for awhile.
I know the area you are talking about well. Indeed pretty hilly. Just terrace the best you can and make longer, narrower beds. That soil would seem to be farily rocky as well but can't be certain on that. Good luck to you and see if you can't get your ball and chain to let you get out while the getting is good. He/She will be thankful 18 months from now....
Too fucking hot.
And too many fucking Cubans.
This chart means nothing. Homes at the top of the market are going up while homes on the lower end are stagnant or going down in price. Atleast in my area (Boston)
Miami being up 12% or so is still below its peak.. while Boston is way above its peak..
Miami= More retireis
Boston, New York et al = foreigners recycleing QE dollars
Cleveland et al= Shale
Where to buy?? Nowhere! (Rent if you must)
Where to sell? In this order. New York, Boston, Miami, Cleveland
I'm sure sub-$80 oil will not affect Houston or Dallas at all
4% Y/Y in this climate seems unsustainable. Wages aren't going up 4%. Interest rates are still extremely low, so there aren't a lot of qualified people locked out of the market. General inflation isn't close to 4%. Rents aren't going up 4%. The question is does it drop to -5% or -10%, and when.
Some of these cities had big housing decreases so it's not like they're above water yet.
san deigo is gud, if yu lik ta surf, dude, gud drugs and clos to mexaco
given the AAII sentiment is at highest of the year (while NOT at new highs) and party cities like LV, MIA, NYC are the most attractive, the new investing motto is No Fear. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
No one noticed that THE place to have made money on this list of cities, is SAN FRAN. #3 on price growth, but...
San Fran NEVER experienced the prices crashes the Miami and Vegas had, Do the math... a large percentage increase from a low price is no big deal in DOLLARS. But a large increase from a large price IS a big deal. Hate to say it, as I'm not so enamored of San Fran as I used to be, but that city is the Price Winner on this list.
Which explains the price stability and growth of Portland, OR: It gets the spillover from (northern) Californians cashing in and moving to Portland(ia). Portland is still a great city, but it got worse with its Homeless who are everywhere downtown. It is well known that other cities (outside of OR) actually export their bums (put them on a bus) and send them to Portland. They need to be given a "Return to Sender" ticket and shipped out, and the downtown cleaned up -- in every way. "Damn hippie Liberals!" is what some home owners say, who pay $15,000-20,000 in property taxes (and I know them personally). Can't say I blame them that they're pissed at the Mayor and the City. We only visit downtown Portland or Seattle on a "city binge": Theater, Shopping, Dining. Suburban or Rural living is THE way to go in the Pac NW.
How the hell is Las Vegas in the #2 spot?
That city is like the real-life Walking Dead.
Las Vegas that's barely surviving until the new Drain is completed in the bottom of Lake Mead? If the denizens of that armpit of hell think they're going to get water from any of the almost as arid surrounding regions so they can flush their innumerable toilets they'd best think again. Those sprawling subdivisions with their Mormon wards implanted at strategic intervals are mostly Utahans who are sick of snow. Of course you can always take the kiddies down on The Strip and watch the portable bill boards for escourt services roll by and watch out for the population that literally lives under the city, and if it's too hot, which is most of the time, you can all inhale the wonders of overpriced botiques indoors. No kids in the casinos please. Predict another Big Bust and not the fun kind either.
miami was a ghost town before cocaine built its skyline.
vote if you would like to live where you can walk to the beach in long beach, california