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Here Is The Reason For The Surge In Consumer Confidence

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last month's sudden plunge (and biggest miss since Jan 2012) in Conference Board consumer confidence merely enabled an even bigger bounce this month. Consumer confidence surged to 94.5, its highest since October 2007, beating by the most since April 2013 (amid Ebola outbreaks). While the current situation was relatively flat, the surge in the headline data was purely due to a huge spike in future expectations from 83.7 to 95.0 - the highest since Feb 2011. Oddly, fewer people are likely to buy a car, major appliance, or house in the next 6 months but survey respondents expect a surge in incomes?

 Hope is back at levels seen in 2005...

 

And this is where the surge came from:

 

Let's hope consumer confidence in hope is not misplaced...

 

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Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:16 | 5385802 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

They are gonna buy food.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385818 max2205
max2205's picture

Feels like 2009 rally all over again....see the desperation to not get left out?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:30 | 5385869 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Difference being that QE was just starting then, and it's ending now.

Even idiot junkies know you don't get high without the drug.  You only come crashing down until you wish you were dead.  "Just one more shot, then I'll quit..."

Crack up boom.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:35 | 5386112 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Hope & Change - no mo Obama

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:32 | 5385874 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Too funny......a surge or a surgery?...like the surgery to get that fist out of the muppet's ass when they tank this ponzi market .....

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:41 | 5386142 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

KK, is gross in my opinion.  Pure trash!

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:50 | 5387361 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Maybe they're banking on that $15 minimum wage for burger flippers.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:17 | 5386301 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

A surge in incomes? T hat 's the signle most unlikely event they could pick to believe in. But then a lot of them believe in life after death and heaven, and Jesus , and so on. And for t he same reason. Their minds aren't strong enough to deal with what the future will actually bring; a long nap, no increase in incomes, etc. The German People in the second half of 1943 believed that the "situation" on the Eastern Front would soon improve. This opinion, or feeling, was carefully monitored and reported on in Berlin, at the same time the propaganda organs of the state worked to maintain the illiusion. the main leakage, came from soldiers home on leave who told their family what the situation really was. Peoples beliefs often seem absurd to an outside observer; but what was the alternative for the German People? The alternative was what actually happened. If you don't stabilize the Eastern Front, and start driving this huge, well equipped, and fast learning army backwards, they're going to be in your front yard in a short while, and Germany will cease to exist as a country; so it's not hard to understand why it was so easy to believe in the althernative. Remember the reason for "globalization" and "Nafta", which were gifted to us by the Clinton White House, was to reduce the amount of the capitalist profit that the American Worker took home; by hiring slave labour in China. Globalization now lives on as one of the great propaganda victories of the twentieth century, right along with stabilizing the Eastern Front, very few people can form the thought in their minds, "why do we have to buy all manufactured products from China, (and other eastern wage sumps); nor are they capable of remembering that it was illegal to import anything from China in 1970. the other arm of this insurance policy is the un-controlled immigration; believing in an increase in income is like believing in the tooth fairy. Henry Ford understood that the workers needed to be able to buy the product of the industrial plant; but now this is never thought of. Government workers get paid twice as much as private sector workers, considering wages and benes. The whole economy is upside down and backwards.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:50 | 5387359 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Then there are those who believe that buying carbon credits from Goldman Sachs will save the world from global warming or cooling or whatever disasters foretold by the High Priest of Global Warming Al Gore. The world is full of suckers of all stripes.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:17 | 5385808 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Things have been bad for so long they can only get better... right? ... right?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:12 | 5386023 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture
Middle class feels worse off and pessimistic

 

"The most disappointing aspect is that 45 percent think they'll never get their finances back to where they were before the financial crisis," said Ken Rees, CEO of the Elevate credit service company, which commissioned the survey. "And a third are losing sleep over it."

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102123665?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102123665#.

 

Investing in Ambien and Lithium seems like a winner.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:18 | 5385813 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It's easy to get such numbers.  The .gov is simply increasing the limit on those EBT cards.

"winning" (in an election year).

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385814 Harry Balzak
Harry Balzak's picture

It's all those hookers and blow

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385830 B2u
B2u's picture

I love it when my hooker blows me before we fuck...

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:35 | 5385883 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

I have to blow up my hooker before I can fuck it.

But the good thing is atleast the austerity sucks.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:41 | 5385915 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

damn I want to give you 2 up arrows for the double funnies :)

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:44 | 5385925 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Even the fucking jokes are losing their purchasing power :)

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:45 | 5385926 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

LMFAO!

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385815 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Surge in income?

That must include government benefits for most of these respondents. 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:53 | 5387364 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

It's that $20 Social Security COLA that was recently announced. 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385816 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They only surveyed bankers and politicians.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385819 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Why do I get the feeling that all of these government "statistics" are all a bunch of hogwash? Probably because it's true... I just want to know when it became in-vogue for the US government to lie and obfuscate everything they tell the citizens? 

 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:27 | 5385843 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

My thoughts exactly...."Consumer Confidence"?  Exactly WTF is that supposed to mean anyway?  I can't think of a more bullshit concept.  

My take would be that this indicator is a gauge of how effective government propaganda has been recently in shaping public perceptions.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:00 | 5385986 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

As in "Consumer CON"...

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:32 | 5385848 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I just want to know when it became in-vogue for the US government to lie and obfuscate everything they tell the citizens? 

 

It has been happening since November 23, 1963...Most likely it was happening well before that.

 

You are still in the Denial Phase and believe that your Government somehow will tell you the truth?

 

It is not happening. THERE ARE NO POLITICAL SOLUTIONS.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:30 | 5385862 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

Have you not observed the American public to not know the answer?  

 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:30 | 5385868 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

'When it became in vogue for the govt to lie"
1913. Although many will probably say since the beginning of time, and I would have a hard time disagreeing. But it has gotten much worse since WWII

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385820 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Ignore the hard data.  Embrace the soft survey.  SSDD.  

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:18 | 5385821 limacon
limacon's picture

Let them enjoy it while they can

The New Black Death

See

https://www.academia.edu/8993526/The_New_Black_Death

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-new-black-death.html

 

Good luck !

You'll need it .

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:20 | 5385824 OW My Balls
OW My Balls's picture

If hope is more powerful than fear, and fear is more powerful than greed (complete sentence)

 

Winner gets to spend the night in the Lincoln bedroom

 

2nd place: 2 nights in the Lincoln bedroom

Last place: Night in the Wookie's bedroom

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385825 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

Consumer confidence is not an economic figure, it is indicating the performance of the mainstream media and entertainment industry.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:20 | 5385826 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

They HOPE they can buy food.  At least the statistics are already cooked.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385827 More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

What the hell is consumer confidence? My car is such a piece of shit I rarely put more than 20 bucks worth of gas in it because Im afraid if it breaks down Im screwed out of the money.  I put 40 in it the other day.  I guess Im confident too?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:19 | 5385829 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  It's skittle shitting unicorns for everyone. I'd love to meet the team of oompa loompa's, resposible for compiling these statistics.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:26 | 5385844 Harry Balzak
Harry Balzak's picture

I hope mine can shit peanut m&m's...

 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:02 | 5385994 madbraz
madbraz's picture

they are all bankster types on the board of directors, what else can one expect other than complete BS that serves their gambling needs.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:22 | 5385835 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah, we all know how that hope and change thing works out. Keep falling for it fools.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:25 | 5385842 silverer
silverer's picture

The voters already know that through Chicago politics methods Hillary is already the next president, so the handouts are expected to increase. Larger screen free phones, etc..

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:27 | 5385847 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

 Rocky Mountain High. 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:29 | 5385863 madbraz
madbraz's picture

Yeah right, like they really interviewed anyone out in the real world...so then why keep the names of the people secret?  it's not like it's a national election.  because we all now these good people would never fake these numbers, right?  I mean, Conference board is a tax-exempt organization, based in NY city, the CEO is from Harvard, just like Larry Summers...Joe Ackerman from Deutsche Bank is on the board...the CEO of spanish bank BBVA is on the board...wait a second!

 

Completely unbiased people with no conflict of interest whatsover.  It's not like Deutsche Bank has trillions of $ in derivatives and could move markets in the direction of their bets based on this bogus publication...

 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:33 | 5385876 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Conference Board has a little Potemkin Village set up some where. It is full of Sandy Hook actors. 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:32 | 5385877 KittyStix
KittyStix's picture

I must be way off base, I thought it is oil (gas) prices.

Since I am getting passed on the interstates, which has been a good indicator. Not that anything else is.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:33 | 5385880 Shropshire Lad
Shropshire Lad's picture

Sounds like the data has been fiddled -- in a particularly clumsy way ...

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:25 | 5386340 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Ding, Ding, Ding!!!!  A winner....  Obvious.  Everyone forget that we have mid-term elections coming up?  

You can bet on 'improved' numbers all around before elections  - with substantial 'adjustments' downward AFTER elections....

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:35 | 5385888 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

They must be talking to a select group of elites, or they're just making it up.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:37 | 5385893 Refuse-Resist
Refuse-Resist's picture

So we've got two more years till most people realize we're fucked?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:37 | 5385902 nakki
nakki's picture

Why do we even need this survey. I mean look back to 2007 when it was printing 140 (whatever that means). Seems like 93 after 6 YEARS of recovery is pretty sad.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:37 | 5385903 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Future expectations shooting higher?  As in "I'm expecting the new TV season to be faaaaantastic!".

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:42 | 5385914 nakki
nakki's picture

Obviously, they are not talking to Las Vegas casino operators. 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:47 | 5385931 10mm
10mm's picture

Yeah, here is your confidence www.dailyjobcuts.com

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 10:48 | 5385941 mendigo
mendigo's picture

I suspect they pull numbers from one month into the next month to stimulate volatility to improve the simulation of a functioning market.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 06:48 | 5385954 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 On Tuesday morning I awoke to a market where stock futures are soaring ever higher even after important economic numbers have been released coming in at below expectations. As the stock market continues to remain at historic highs please tell me what is so good? What is so much better?

 As I see it the weight of carrying a large number of unemployed and nonworking people who have dropped out of the work force will wear down society through attrition. The article below points out some of the glaring flaws in the argument that blue sky lies ahead as the stock market seems to indicate. As I look at a landscape of empty and under-leased buildings that once housed thriving businesses that provided Americans with good paying jobs I'm forced to ask, How are things getting better?

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/10/tell-me-again-how-things-are-getting.html

 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:07 | 5386002 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I can't stand it. This is such a hilarious poll. I'm dying to know, what are the questions? Why not round it off to 100% and say everybody in the whole country is happy. Meantime the rest of the real world is moving on. 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:09 | 5386015 BouncingCat
BouncingCat's picture

The expectation of Obama (or someone like him) winning the presidency along with full Democrat control of the Congress played a great role in liquidity evaporating and the collapse in velocity.  As his programs proved damaging and illegality flourished unchecked, expectation was realized.  As Republicans clawed back and are on the verge of expanding their majority in the House and taking control of the Senate, confidence will continue to grow.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:09 | 5386016 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Hope don't pay the bills Dopes...

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:21 | 5386047 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

One word. Election.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:28 | 5386081 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

 

Lie for sham election.         

hope for sham election

 

 

 

 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 11:39 | 5386127 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Of course, any time you see one of these surveys or indicators drop, it's just so that they can set it up for a big bounce next time around....everything fake, all the time.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:26 | 5386344 talisman
talisman's picture

November election means ya gotta haul out the lipstick for this pig of an economy--

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 12:42 | 5386405 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But there's always some reason to put more lipstick on the pig, next month it will be something different, all just the same though.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 13:45 | 5386617 MagicMoney
MagicMoney's picture

Should be called the Hope & Change index.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 14:28 | 5386809 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Predictable ahead of what is popularly believed to be a sea change election to the "economic growth" party.  They could make the longer term future brighter with some truth-telling and reality/math-driven policies and medium-term pain, but almost certainly won't.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 19:23 | 5387893 fibonacci's claus
fibonacci's claus's picture

liters of ebola infected diarrhea and vomit at the shopping malls for christmas, that will be reality, not misplaced hope. 

more like misplaced ebola poop

"clean up aisle 9"

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