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Core Capex Drops Most Since January; Durable Goods Orders Slide, Miss By Most In 2014
It was just 2 months ago when the one-off Boeing order-related idiocy distorted the entire time series and was thus extrapolated into escape velocity dreams by prognosticators everywhere. Excused by the cognoscenti as a "volatile time series," Durable Goods new orders dropped 1.3% MoM, missing expectations by the most since Dec 2013 and negative for the 2nd month in a row. Last month's drop was revised lower also. Even more concerning is the 1.7% drop MoM in Core Capex, the biggest miss in over a year and biggest drop since January. Did it snow in September?
The headline summary via BBG:
- Durable goods new orders fell 18.3% in Aug., the Census Bureau said
- New orders ex-trans. fell 0.2% in Sept. after 0.7% rise
- New orders ex-defense fell 1.5% in Sept. after 19.1% fall
- Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft fell 1.7% in Sept.
- Non-defense capital goods ex-air 3 mo. avg. annualized rose 10.4%
- Non-defense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft fell 0.2% in Sept. after 0.1% rise
Snark aside, it was time to find scapegoats why for another month, the 5 year delayed CapEx renaissance is still missing. Bloomberg promptly came up with a convenient one: Europe.
Companies are looking for more signs of sustained consumer demand before making high-dollar investments, even as households benefit from strong job gains and pared-down debt. As markets in Europe and emerging nations slow, fewer exports will probably also damp orders in coming months, indicating American manufacturing will cool.
“Exports aren’t doing anything great because Europe’s in a really bad funk,” Michael Montgomery, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insights in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Prospects for sales one or two years down the line are decent, but they’re not booming.”
Well, "Europe" is at least better than the weather. But just wait until Ebola is blamed in 2-3 months.
And now, time to start cutting those Q4 GDP forecasts.
Durable Goods prints 2nd miss and 2nd drop in a row
And Core Capex - Capital goods new orders ex defense ex-aircraft - dropped most since January
The Y/Y change in headline durables, noe the Boeing distortion.
And core CapEx: there is still much more room to fall.
So how long until Obama issues an executive order banning stock buybacks and demanding all excess cash be spent on "growth"?
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Then we need more QE. Bullish.
doesn't appear that it is needed....europe up 1.5% so ES is understated by at least 1.2% this morning, should be a faceripper in US equities today.....just becuz....central bank power at stake ya know
Europe my ass. Europe hasn't changed in years. It's still like stale bread. Glacial economic activity. Has been for years. Europe is not an excuse. It's a figment of somebody's sophist lying deceitful mind.
+ a Bazillion, Tyler... wait till Ebola is the excuse
Chances are that won't, for once, be an empty excuse.
And..... watch retail sales. Grocery items like canned goods. Propane, camp stoves, water, etc. That, once it happens, the prepping begins, as the Ebola fear porn takes hold and builds, will actually pull some spending forward.
Then it'll be Katie Bar the Door.
LOL
Get it? Katie "Bar the Door"
Shelter in place
Bar the door
Sick fuck
You say Obama, I say Ebola...let's call the whole thing off.
(off in the rotting fish kind of way)
The new dismal.
Dude! You just named our curent world condition
+ Bazillion
"The New Dismal"
Dismal is the new optimism.....
The Fed has to announce something to juice stocks before the election. Obama wants much better odds in November.
no, the Democrats want better odds. Obozo wants a tee time.
not as much need for oil if you're not shipping anything to anyone
it didnt snow, but football season started and that was not considered by economic PhD's.....you know....since they never get out and are oblivious to the rest of the world.
There were only 30 days in September this year.......
15 were unusually cold and 15 were unusually warm.
Does that mean that November and December have 30 days this year, too?
Oh shit.
We need some liar to pretend he is going to print some more toilet paper, then all will be well.
Is that your prefered currency, do colors matter over there, they charge extra here for the fancy border rolls.
Plain printed will be worth 1oz of gold, borders I will value at 10oz of gold. Clearly I will use the bordered stuff to short the shit out of gold
to QE or not to QE.......THAT IS THE QUESTION?!?!
It's all good my Bitchez; the FED's got yo backs!
In doggyposition that is.
"companies are looking for signs of consumer demand before making high-dollar investments"
Yeah good luck with that, you'll be waiting a long time. The CONsumer is tapped out with no real job prospects and we still have over capacity issues in just about every sector of the eCONomy.
We're either tapped out, have poor credit and can't borrow any further, or making a conscious effort not to spend. Vote with your wallet against those fascist corporations and the complicit government. In the end, "we" as a whole have the power to effect change.
We're gonna need a bigger Ouija board!
[effecting intensifies]
Bullish!!!!
Up 22% followed by down 18.3% and then down 1.7% is 2.5% NEGATIVE growth if you run the series (over that short 3 month period).
100 (baseline) x 1.22 = 1.22
1.22 x .813 (-17.3%) = .992
.992 x .983 (-1.7%) = .975 (-2.5%)
A bit of a math error, but its the thought that counts.... Also doesnt include inflation.......
GDP print for Q3 will be what now 4%.......(goalseeked number only to be revised to 1 percent later?)
Can't they just print a few Trillions, without anyone knowing about it.....what's so hard ??
That first trillion is a doozie.
Printing it is the easy part. Spending it is the hard part.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glSN4qvjt2E
Just Print more is the Fed's motto.
Good accountants produce vibrant economies..
Oblamo can issue all the EO he wants, I'm not spending shit until this whole farce ends. Fuck DC, Fraud street, and the eCONomy until the theft and graft stop.
What part of economies are winding down / collapsing are we not getting?
Get fucking used to it.
Quoting Seer: Economies of scale in reverse.
Accoarding to the article,there is strong job gains occuring. Right
As I have been saying since May 2013:
Quantitative Easing was purposefully designed to harm the real economy because there was no other option to make insolvent primary dealers and insolvent bank lobby oligarchs survive few more years with insolvent derivatives.
So, this is coming to the point that $4 trillion of added reserves claiming world real assets have made the world reduce, reroute or flat out halt supplies of commodities and energy, like Indonesia did.
It is over. World supply chains are breaking down. World is refusing to trade with USA and EU if Quantitative Easing is not unwound, not just stopped.
Four solutions:
1) Unwind QE and manually trigger Triple Lehman
2) Assassinating bank lobby, literally speaking
3) Accept 50% drop of standard of living
4) Go all out war, roman style
Choose one
You sir are an optimist. Wake us when those EBT cards stop working.
A few more EBTs, and USA becomes third world
Military needs food, housing, clothes, energy etc.
Americans are NOT going to provide those.
ekm1;
"Quantitative Easing was purposefully designed to harm the real economy because there was no other option to make insolvent primary dealers and insolvent bank lobby oligarchs survive few more years with insolvent derivatives.
It is over. World supply chains are breaking down.
Four solutions:
1) Unwind QE and manually trigger Triple Lehman
2) Assassinating bank lobby, literally speaking
3) Accept 50% drop of standard of living
4) Go all out war, roman style"
Ekm1;
Traders, Bankers and possibly economist are the few that understand what makes the world run. Politicians and lawyers probably don't count for much except adding dead weight and drag.
I realize it take time to turn a battleship and this symbolized how long it takes for Washington DC Policy to effect it... I figure 4 years unless someone goes "full Retard".
- 1900s when US started Depending on Outsourced Produce
- 1960, when US started Outsourcing Auto Factories
- 1968, when Costs of Vietnam War became Obvious Problem
- 1971, Nixon Shock, US Refuses to convert USD to Gold for Foreign Holders of USD
- 1972, BCCI Bank created
- 1974, CIA Slapped with Investigations of Practices, they decide to Outsource & Subcontract
- 1978, Soviet-Afghanistan War Starts
- 1979, the Top of US Manufacturing
- 1979, when US Median Wages got Stuck or leveled out
- 1980, Presidential Campaign, Debt, Economy, Inflation, Iran
- 1981, the Top of US Money Velocity
- 1982, Ronald Reagan Maxes out DoD Budget
- 1982, CIA Begins using BCCI Bank
- 1986, DoD Contractors Soar with profits & plans
- 1990, Start of US Gulf War with Iraq, US & UK will Bomb Iraq for the next 13 years till US-Iraq War II
- 1994, NAFTA Treaty,
- 1995, Sub-prime mortgages started
- 1995, Community Reinvestment Act, the Clinton Admin urged flexibility,
- 1995, HUD advocated greater involvement of state and local organizations
- 1996, Start of a Period of Accounting Fraud in USA which continues today
- 1997, M2 Money Velocity Top
- 1998, Brooksly Born Rejected on her concerns on OTC Derivatives
- 1998, Derivatives expanded and were not regulated
- 1998, Clinton's Kosovo War
- 1998, Citicorp & Travelers Insurance Merger
- 1999, Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (GLBA), End of Glass Steagal Act
- 2001, US-Afghan War
- 2003, US-Iraq War
- 2005, CAFTA-DR Related Progression
- 2005, US Mortgage Top of Bubble
- 2008, US-Global Financial Crisis
- 2012, Existing Home Sales finally return to USA
- 2013, IRS Budget exceeds $100 Billion since it now pays out cash to households as Credits
- 2013, Corporate Income Taxes Receipts still fail to return to 2006, 2007, or 2008 pre-crash Level of over $300 Billion
My Point: Probably we became like Europe when we stopped investing in manufacturing at a level to keep those jobs. Sure, union pressure lead to poor US Executive decisions about compensation and the benefits were too high... So now we see a government, a banking system, and robber barons that don't invest properly in the USA.
And what about integrity? We need simple rules to follow that everyone will understand and stick to... regarding money & gifts in politics, regarding what government can do to provide a real environment for a real middle class, and regarding fraud, accounting rules, and financial standardization.
Integrity in the USA. What a concept huh?
Can anyone help improve my timeline???
"...World is refusing to trade with USA and EU if Quantitative Easing is not unwound, not just stopped..."
Those World bastards! Who do they think they are?
The US and EU should enact punishing sanctions on the world and bleed them until they're on their knees begging to trade with us again.
Let's see how stubborn they are when they try to find somewhere else to buy airliners and... well, the other stuff we make that nobody else can. Like... [give me a sec, here] ah, F-35s! We make some of that. And Hot Pockets. And GMO crops. And, well... there must be lots of stuff.
The world will be cryin' like a little girl to trade with us in no time flat, QE or no QE.
Classy: Six years into Obama’s economy and Biden admits that it’s not any better for average Americans, despite the constant LIES.
Biden: 'The Middle Class Has Been Left Behind' - YouTube
Yeah, like Uncle Goofy is a good source.
Coke and whores are not durable goods? QE to be renamed, coming soon. As soon as FED figures out how to dump their shit on the taxpayer.
Everywhere I drive I see lots full of new heavy equipment ,cars and trucks and 90k Escalades and boats and home use farm equipment one dealer has so many Kubota tractors they were in parking lots for other stores...fuck people but shit and it should last if taken care of how many people need the new model bushog to mow the lawn ..
Dodge and ford dealer in breaux bridge la has so many vehicles in the lot next to them it's has to be 800+ vehicles...
They find that Jet yet??
With 0% interest floor plan financing those dealers can afford to keep accepting additional new model deliveries. No skin off their nose if a vehicle or tractor takes 9-12 months to sell.
And the manufactures love it because they record the outgoing vehicles as 'sales' when they leave the factory. When the next down draft hits everyone writes all this crap off in one or two huge quarters of blood letting, then it all begins again. The government/Fed will pick up the tab and pass it along to the middle class.
After all....what are you receiving for interest on that 2 year CD at your friendly neighborhood community bank?
1.5% if you ACT NOW!!!
http://ratebrain.com/2-year-cd
Meanwhile, my local CU is offering 0.3%, so...
might as well play PowerBall.
Yellen, the morning after...
Yeah, hick, I rive runk.
Look, no more Ebola cases, the stock market is up, unemployment is low and gas is much cheaper. Just right before the November election. Who could ask for anything more.
And there's a sale at Penny's!! #winning
Of course this will change after the election.
Chirp, chirp, chirp.
Tweet, tweet, tweet.
Ah, bird brains.
Gosh can we Just pass a Law that No Economic number can be Revised.. I mean if they release a number they have to Live with it, that way they either tell the truth or the wipshaws and lies get so Funny nobody listens to them any More..
If anyone requires a laugh for the day, here's a current NY Times headline:
"E.C.B. Stress Tests Seen as Bolstering Confidence in Banks"
But , but Honey Boo Boo got canceled.
Does anybody really think the PPT has gone away?
First two quarters of my business were decent. The third quarter and this quarter are terrible as in flat as a pancake. Out of my products, I sell a big ticket item that takes awhile to sell and these bigger companies that buy them tell me there 2015 investment is going to be practically nil. 2015 is going to be a rough year.
So you suck all the cash out of the economy with financial repression and park it in bank reserves. Where is demand? Credit based consumption? The dinks aren't as stupid as the Fed thinks.